Are We On The Brink of Collapse? - Truth About Money, AI, Elon Musk & The 2024 Recession | Raoul Pal

Transform Your Life in 90 Days: Take The Impact 90 Challenge bit.ly/47kCfrZ
Is this the end of civilization as we know it to be, or the beginning of untapped unimaginable outcomes for all of us?
Raoul Pal has become a legend in global economics as one of the most successful former hedge fund managers (retired at 36), and one of the most brilliant thought leaders that thoroughly understands how to navigate and explain the complexities of the global financial markets.
And as the macro economist that Britain called on for help, his insights into the current recession, global economy, and volatile markets are well respected.
In today’s power-packed episode, we go deep into crypto, AI, and the future of technology and the economy. We touch on:
- The impact of the debt cycle and hyperinflation
- Potential breakthroughs in the tech sector
- The unstoppable nature of technology marked by AI models
- The natural cycle of recessions
- What kind of economic threat A.I. could be to the global economy
Raoul takes us through the complexities of the current economic system, how companies operate during downturns, his predictions for the coming economic cycles and housing markets, and why investing in technologies and cryptocurrencies may be the saving grace in this tumultuous economic construct.
Chapter Markers:
[0:00] The secular trend within the cyclical trend
[38:10] How money becomes worthless
[1:10:01] Recession is already here
[1:50:22] Population collapse problem
[2:21:36] The AI takeover is here
[2:47:56] Assets outside of fake money
Powerful Insights From Raoul Pal:
“The thing that's actually driving the S&P 500 is the Fed balance sheet. It's not companies.”
“Once you digitize things the cost goes to zero”
“In my lifetime there's a 20 or 30 year period which might be a truly extraordinary moment, […] the issue is, we can't see through the other side of it, and that's terrifying.”
“If you can afford to, invest in it [A.I.]. If not, be curious.”
“The impossible is possible.”
“Doom porn sells, it catches attention. Fear is the strongest human emotion.”
“It’s in everybody’s interest for everybody to walk away from this one commodity ruling the world because it’s not the commodity we care about, it’s the energy we care about.”
“Demographics are deflationary and inflationary depending where you are in the demographic cycle.”
“Babyboomers, the same people who caused the inflation are causing the deflation, [...] because they’re holding money.”
“Nobody wants the debasement of currency, but if you don’t, what is the outcome?”
“There’s a lot of structural issues here, and I don’t think you can do this without government, and I don’t think you can do it without central banks.”
“Nobody’s ever managed to get the business cycle flat, it’s a degree of what volatility you’ll accept.”
Follow Raoul Pal:
Website: www.realvision.com/
Twitter: / raoulgmi
LinkedIn: / raoul-pal-real-vision
KZbin: www.youtube.com/@RealVisionFi...
Follow Me, Tom Bilyeu:
Website: impacttheoryuniversity.com/
X: / tombilyeu
Instagram: / tombilyeu

[@TomBilyeu]

WARNING: I will NEVER ask for your contact info in the comments section, that is someone impersonating me!

[@kapilsane]

There is no relation between Debit and using AI to increase productivity to payoff the debit. These corporate AIs will not payoff the debit, instead they will eat away all the profits.

[@kapilsane]

So don't post such fake videos.

[@henrythegreatamerican8136]

Seriously, stop with the doom porn. We've been hearing it all year by corporate media and right wing nutjobs with a political agenda telling us a bad recession is coming. Yet here we are. The jobs keep coming. Consumer confidence is rising. Student loans that should never have existed are finally being reduced to manageable levels or eliminated completely. Sure, interest rates are still high and inflation is still a problem, but Biden does not have direct control over that. The inflation is mostly coming from these things: Low taxes on rich people who buy up all our assets, tons of Federal Reserve printed money still sloshing around when interest rates were zero for nearly 2 years, the overseas wars affecting supply chains, oil cartels continuing to manipulate oil prices, and pure greed of large companies raising prices because they can.

[@WorkhardHDLBTC]

When president. Go get those briefs.

[@sexyasian99]

This show is boring AF. Why the hell did KZbin play this. I'm not subscribed to this boring crap. Also if you are dum enough to fall for a texting scam via a KZbin comment i can't help but think you deserve it.

[@JefferyDuns]

Our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.

[@PhilipDunk]

People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.

[@PatrickLloyd-]

Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.

[@Nernst96]

Who’s your CFP??

[@PatrickLloyd-]

Her name is Amber Dawn Brummit can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like

[@Nernst96]

I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.

[@lighterpath5998]

The video with Raoul Pal in a blue shirt was shot in March of 2023, where he predicted we would be in increasingly high unemployment at this time. I am not pointing this out to show he's wrong, I'm pointing out the current state of finance, as he's speaking at that time while in the blue T shirt, is not the current state of the world today. We should not assume he's speaking in the present tense of it being Feb of 2024, but as it was in March of last year.

[@seekererebus255]

Of course it's when he's thinking about centrists as a proper method of handling situations that he gets predictions almost dead wrong. Anyone who thinks that any human or group of humans can outcompete a truly free market is so ignorant and often arrogant that any knowledge they have is suspect.

[@angieg9361]

Excellent observation. I’d say 98% of viewers didn’t even notice.

[@coffeerobby]

He also called the bottom for Bitcoin at 16k and called the 69k top last bull run. Dude is very very solid.

[@richardpeychers4076]

What news outlets are mesmerizing you, unemployment is rampant and getting worse.

[@yoeyyoey8937]

@@richardpeychers4076voluntary unemployment or because there’s no jobs?

[@the0cool0guy]

Please mention the date of recording in video description! It will help set the correct context. Thanks!

[@mefisto05s.20]

Yeah exactly!

[@PricelessBinkey1337]

Doesn't the video give when it was uploaded? Or like when it was recorded recorded?

[@Kai-ne3ks]

@@PricelessBinkey1337 It's a collection of clips from different conversations over time, so would be helpful to have it dated in each clip cos the themes are so topical

[@PricelessBinkey1337]

@@Kai-ne3ks it was a genuine question so thank you for not being mean lol 😁

[@rannyorton]

This seems like the worst period.Even the markets are very unpredictable.started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today i am more than 60% down

[@Alejandracamacho357]

The current situation is incredibly dire for people in the United States and other countries. The global economy is facing a significant downturn, with increasing inflation rates and unemployment figures.

[@belljoe]

I think it's not always about fear, Sometimes realistic factors discourage people from reaching their goals in life. For instance, I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value

[@rannyorton]

Fantastic! Can you share more details?

[@rannyorton]

I'm definitely gonna check her out. Do yo have any idea if she manages a family fund?

[@TrevorFosterTheFosterDojo]

The worst period 😂😂😂 literally easily the best time to live

[@Gid-J]

With market discussions there really needs to be dates put on the interview topics.

[@SlentzStrength]

Seriously i thought this whole time he was talking from a current perspective not over a year ago

[@mellow_frequencies]

@@SlentzStrengthsame, i was a bit disappointed when i found out it was from march 2023.

[@waltbianchi8862]

@@angelobalbiI agree, no matter what market (they covered many segments) it would be extremely helpful if a date code was down in the corner of a discussion.

[@collin9085]

I was 25 minutes in thinking I was having the craziest case of deja vu. Glad to find out this originally was posted a year ago.

[@my2cents935]

So frustrating why repost a interview almost a year ago

[@doradestroy]

My mothers entire fortune has gone to pay for her care as her health declined and she is in a facility because I can't take of her. Even with the best insurance and pension and social security, it's cost everything she had inside of 10 years. No one is really talking about all of the "boomers" who will lose everything to cognitive and physical decline AND how that effects their caregivers who are usually their spouse or adult children, even with a hoard of money in assets it can be gone in a matter of a few years and then when you finally die, all you leave your family is debt and their own health problems from the stress.

[@anastasiavorobets8898]

Great point! I myself heard several stories like this one. And the guest started talking about it but then they quickly jumped off the subject. I think even before corporate income redistribution we seriously need to talk about pharmaceutical & medical industries in the country. If you ever watched “Painkiller” documentary and how easy it is to buy your way out of justice, you know that’s a big problem area.

[@user-nn5vm9pc3y]

Yes, you are correct. Nothing has been discussed about the wealth transfer of the elderly /boomers by the pirañas at a time that they have no choices, only what they have managed to save for this time of their lives. This interview tends to demonise them as hoarders and a speed bump to youngsters wealth. Frankly I get tired of this perspective. Older people lived more simply and built up their assets to have something in retirement. The young ones want all that today. Poor financial management by corrupt successive governments all over the world have caused this along with decoupling the gold standard in the west. Not only do we pay taxes, they gouge our standard of living continually with their debt bonds, quantitive easing and other BS they can use to perception manage. These people are the cause of inability of younger people to afford homes, low paid jobs due to unchecked immigration and rampant homelessness. All this is coming to a nasty end as people admire their handiwork work and move further away from the creator. I’ve read Revelations. I know how the story of man ends.

[@scottdorsey8220]

Just goes to validate we live in a rigged perception managed Ponzi scheme filled with tricks, traps and spin. There aren't any winners.

[@riddlerhymes512]

Great point. Sorry to read about your mother. I am about to turn 65. The single biggest investment I've made in the last 10 years has been my health and vitality. I will not have my children (in their thirties) stressed over my needless decline. My parents did that to me. Also, I'm pushing my creative gifts with my twin loves: writing and acting. It has been part of my second career since retiring from 40 years in sales.

[@threeftr3349]

@@riddlerhymes512 I see it very differently. No amount of investment can stop the decline of your health. We all have an expiration date. I consider myself very blessed for being there for my mom throughout her later years. Where I moved she moved with me. My husband and I worked out every issues for both of our parents. Yes, she lost all of her wealth, they purposely went after every penny, until they had no choice but to put her on Medicaid. I made sure the group home did their job. I made sure the doctors didn't miss her ailments. I was there all day when she was hospitalized, so the doctors would not end her life with unnecessary procedures or surgeries. One doctor tried to do an unnecessary surgery. I protected her health, her frailty the best that I could. I had one doctor walk in saw me and walked out. The nurses loved that I was there all day. so I could take care of her needs, when they could not. Imagine, the hospitals are not equipped to take care of the daily needs of the elderly. Nurses don't have the time. They don't sit and help them eat. At one hospital one nurse refused to bath her before discharge. Why... well I image because she knew she lived at a group home and she didn't like old people. Another became angry at me, when I brought up another issue she was having. She was becoming constipated, but they were giving her food. Stating she was not hospitalized for that issue. Needless to say, I made sure that issue was resolved before she left. She never went back to that hospital. Believe it or not, there are many in healthcare that don't like the elderly, and don't want to deal with them or touch them. FLMA was the precious tool I used, my employer had no power over me, my mom was more important. To this day, I still thank God for blessing me with that time. No matter how stressed, worried, or upset I got throughout the years, my mom knew I was there for her, even to the end of her life. Why would you want to take that choice away from your grown children?

[@jnicolettebailey]

Tom you HAVE TO STOP interrupting him 🤦 Come on, man !

[@90daydetainee]

I just found this guy and I am about to tap out cuz he cant shut the fuck up

[@pavementstoneguy]

It's who he is 😂 Guaranteed he was that annoying kid in class who raised his hand before the end of class asking, "Do we have any homework?"

[@None-lh5mx]

I unsubbed. It's been so fucking bad and getting worse.

[@mickywes3733]

He can’t get enough of himself.

[@Wendathena]

It helps me when Tom asks questions to make the speaker clarify the concept, or at least Tom can rephrase what the speaker just said in a way that enhances a lay person's understanding.

[@ja5304]

Interesting topics but sometimes it just feels like video titles and screenshots perpetuate manufactured fear of what-ifizims, which could technically happen but feels more skewed towards clicks than reality. Nonetheless keeping an open mind to situations and how to navigate them is important.

[@PJski]

Can't help but feel the same thing about Tom's recent content. One video "World is coming to an end", next video, "Un**ck your life, stop consuming negative, nihilistic content". I get it... you get to a point where anything that'll get you max clicks and licks will get the ticks on your videos to do list. It's disappointing. Tom has potential if he stays on script and with his niche, but lately it seems, he's going down the 'whatever gets me more clicks / shock / fear-value" approach.

[@vermidian_]

Agreed. Additionally, it seems less like synthetic fear-mongering, but more like genuine concern from Tom, which is nice that's it's genuine, but I am concerned about this kind of language emerging in general.

[@poleonpoleon706]

Yes! So tired of this. Have seen other creators starting to do the same. they do it for algorithm but it's just exhausting. I have unsubscribed from channels because of it before , I don't want to be dipped in fear every time I open KZbin...

[@jsocia]

Tom be clickbaitmaxxing.

[@gabgnooo]

Well said

[@coffeerobby]

Raoul does such an amazing job of explaining the metrics and shuts Toms mouth for once❤

[@LiLChiLi_]

Raoul was too nice. Cant believe how much patience he had with Tom

[@mr.makeit4037]

​@LiLChiLi_ I like to listen to Tom's podcasts, but I think he knows less than what he thinks. I was taught to learn by doing. Also we learn by truly listening.

[@LiLChiLi_]

@@mr.makeit4037 he has no clue about finance. So it's especially annoying when he interrupts the Expert in order to "insists on his false assumptions". He interrupts quite a lot in business / growth / health topic too. But it's less annoying there because his knowledge in these topics are more profound.

[@mr.makeit4037]

@@LiLChiLi_ Agreed

[@ZXNTV]

I'll be honest I'm not sure if Raoul likes making things sound complex or if I just suck at understanding.

[@leadgenjay]

Raoul's insights into the intersection of technology and economy are spot on. For entrepreneurs, understanding the 'network effect' in tech businesses can be crucial; as your user base grows, your service becomes more valuable without necessarily increasing costs, which can be a game-changer during economic downturns. Remember, the key is to focus on building a product that becomes more indispensable as more people use it.

[@ivywoodxrecords]

Ugh enough about tech business everyone is sick of that angle. Keep your "products" to yourself they are ruining society. Do something useful thanks.

[@lowrystcol]

You guys butchered Metcalfe's law. It's the total lifetime value of a network user, and when squared, can serve as a measure to value a network. This is because the value of a network grows exponentially with the number of users, as each user can potentially interact with every other user. So, if each user has a certain “lifetime value” (the net profit attributed to the entire future relationship with a customer), squaring this value can give an estimate of the total value of the network. However, it’s important to note that this is a simplified model and actual network values can depend on many other factors.

[@drewcover2864]

Your final sentence being RPs point, useful development matters more than users. ex: Doge v. Eth

[@Noone-px7xg]

I would REALLY REALLY LIKE that each conversation in this collection of podcasts had a date attached to it that told me when the conversation took place. Because Raoul Paul makes predictions a few months or years out, but I dont know when the conversation happened, so I have no sense of how far away his predictions are from when I'm watching this video

[@jl9097]

Ikr, it would be so much better if there was a date attached to each timestamp when Tom Bilyeu spoke with Raoul Pal

[@CreeperDude-cm1wv]

If you click on the "more" button at the title of the video. It shows the video was posted Feb 2 2024. So it's recent. 😊

[@Noone-px7xg]

@@CreeperDude-cm1wv This video contains multiple podcasts that were recorded a few months ago.

[@CreeperDude-cm1wv]

Ok. Thank you. Haven't finished watching all of it. They Def need timestamps.

[@howwies]

I think at one point in the interview they say "we're recording her in March 2023."

[@aesthetic-da-one]

nice reupload, exactly what was needed.

[@ZytechZero]

When did it originally come out? Late 2022?

[@sethhavens1574]

Fascinating conversation, thank you both for sharing your thoughts

[@Northstorm_Tom]

I’ve already seen this video, why was it released as new? Anyway, it’s as good and relevant the 2nd time around.

[@Scienceaddict147]

He did the same with the recent Peter Attia video. He could atleast make it clear its a cut'n'repost video.

[@paulfaulkner2855]

@@Scienceaddict147 I've seen other cut and paste videos on here recently. The Alex Hormozi video had them both on different sets and wearing different clothes, plus Tom had a hat and glasses in one part and nothing in the other, same with Alex who had a different shirt, hat, and strip across his nose.

[@Scienceaddict147]

@@paulfaulkner2855 Yeah that one too. The Peter Attia one was just a mashup of his two interviews with him. I like a lot of Toms material but this recent clickbait posting of these great guests are really disappointing. When you think its new(it doesnt say anywhere that its a repost) and realize its just a repost, annoying.

[@agates9383]

Because I never would have been exposed to it - it's a SUPER important conversation on info that MOST people dont see the big picture on.

[@rickhaught1805]

I would say it’s because the rest of his videos kind of suck with the exception of this one. Probably trying to relive the views it got

[@x-menxrp2643]

Please for years have said we are the brink of collapse, a catchy phase to discuss and no one comes to a conclusions about lol. Eventually someone will be right, you can be wrong 30,000 days in row but only be right 1x to say you were right. Look in any direction you will find failure. No one has a clue what will happen, not even the experts. Good show, good content,

[@chriskii12344]

Should really say when the date was... brilliant interview and questioning of Raoul!

[@_Business1st]

Didn’t this video already come out?

[@namelessmillennial]

No

[@MrCale0601]

Yes. 7 months ago. Just a change of editing

[@yare1324]

Can you do a panel on this subject?

[@robertkuhlman8811]

Wow! What a conversation.

[@xd2tone]

Thank you for the pauses and the recaps to go over what was said it is very helpful

[@zdavid8577]

This interview is recorded March 2023… but released Feb 2024… why, just why.

[@fockewulf190d]

Maybe it was behind the Real Vision pay wall until one year went by.

[@danielthompson3882]

brilliant guys ! you bring out the best in each other .. my renewed fanship for T & R 🙏

[@judygreenwell334]

When was this interview taped - all segments? It would be very helpful to have this info with all videos - rather than the date posted.

[@mellow_frequencies]

March 2023. Tom mentions it somewhere around the 1h15m mark.

[@mrcras7257]

Why does this video just start in the middle of a discussion and not the beginning?

[@jeremybw2180]

In simple terms metcalfs law is: the more people or devices that are connected to a network, the more valuable that network becomes. So if 'HYPE' drives people to adopt it and use it then any 'HYPE' is a driver of metcalfs law, otherwise, metcalfs law WILL fizzle out unless they leave their devices to run themselves. Unless people build and adopt the THING, it will never develop value anyay. I think Mr. Pal is only using as a defining thing. Tom is defining it SUBJECTIVELY and Raoul is using it OBJECTIVELY.

[@jeremybw2180]

@@angelobalbi Tulip Mania was very much SUBJECTIVE. I wasn't there to experience it, AND I can't prove the records weren't fabricated. You MUST ALWAYS ASSUME perception is reality.

[@QUANTUM_FIELD_THEORY]

This video is nearly a year old !!!

[@montana727]

Having the ads on while watching this is torture! I’m trying to listen to Raoul and learn about the economy and every 7-10 min there is some ad running trying to sell be something. I can’t…

[@10317]

This was a fascinating podcast. I sat in my chair mesmerized as I listened to Raul. I am a second tier boomer, 1956-1964. First tier boomer, 1946-1955. I grew up envying my stepbrother who was in the first group because he and his peers had great jobs. My group struggled in even being able to find a job. The good jobs were taken up by the older boomers. They were also more rebellious. When they were marching in the middle sixties My group was in grade school. I just want you younger folk to know the dynamics of the boomer generation. In that although it is a huge demographic it is a demographic of two different generations. As I have gotten older. I retired in 2022. I look at shopping malls deteriorating. Office buildings laying half empty. Stores in trouble. JC Penny, K Mart, Sears, Bed Bath and Beyond… they all thrived when the boomers were growing up. When the boomers taste changes, i.e. and they shop less the malls started to die. I see huge change happening all over. Guys, the last of the boomers will be retiring in 2031. So the 2020’s-2051 are going to be very interesting.

[@raymondstewart7660]

Why so much interruption 🤷🏾‍♂️?

[@SACREDFlRE]

He's a mouth breather

[@ToneGuruLA]

Trying to distill economics down to one single causation is often a fools errand. Its psychology... no its math... its demographics.... its all about supply and demand.... Actually its all of the above. Great show guys... keep up the good work. Always learn something new with RP 🙂

[@JaredJacobsonLaw]

This is great learning a tonnn thank u 🙏

[@keeganpeck9229]

This is from March 2023?

[@mariocondello2353]

When you print 80% of all US dollars in existence in the last 3 years what do you expect?

[@mrfriendly9956]

It's interesting to hear someone predict, with such confidence, that the Fed will start cutting rates late 2023. That clearly did not happen. This last part of inflation, such as groceries will be the hardest to remove. The rate levels are actually more normal from a historic stand point. I hope they keep them here so the Fed has so leverage to fix an actual problem in the future. Tom as always, you ask amazing questions and put out great content. Thank you!

[@cruzrv4399]

Bloody hell, every time I think I have grasped what Raul has said, Tom comes in with another question and I have to rethink the whole thing again. Loved the show guys keep up the good work.

[@rexdraconis6379]

What are the dates on these interviews @tombilyeu when he says next quarter is that the previous one the current one or the next one?

[@sedg666]

During the interview they said it was recorded March of 2023

[@rexdraconis6379]

@@sedg666 no they didn’t

[@sedg666]

1hour 19minutes and 30seconds. Listen better next time I had to go back and listen again to get your answer. Your welcome.

[@alexanderSnilsson]

This is better than the biggest block buster movies!!🍿 ❤

[@bobhanover4841]

Excellent discussion! I really enjoyed this interview!

[@33vi]

Interesting video but coming out close to a year after the discussion is disappointing because it’s not nearly as current/applicable as it could be.

[@unTLDR]

13:55 21 Million, not 22 Million Tom

[@waterlevelroute]

Amway used to be the thing for people who had been asleep just working and borrowing. They would get into Amway and be exposed for the first time to concepts such as assets vs liabilities, how investments can pay more than wages etc. They always thought they had found the holy grail and told everyone around them about these new wonderful things. Crypto is similar.

[@paulajones7291]

Exactly!

[@marakevans3984]

2:42:04 Mass Effect Reapers?

[@martintonks5075]

REally enjoyed listening to Raoul paul's explanations on these topics

[@philipgrombliniak5651]

I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Deborah Davis.

[@jennifermontague3213]

I'm shocked that you just mentioned and recommended Deborah Davis. I thought I was the only one trading with her.

[@jasonjonathan428]

I was big on gold and silver but a few months ago I discovered Bitcoin and Ethereum. Listening to lots of stuff from Deborah Davis has been really helpful in my journey..

[@bradleywellington8624]

When someone is straight forward at what he or she does people will always speak for them.i know a couple of friends who makes profits in the financial market

[@anglebarboza5829]

YES!!! That's exactly her name (Deborah Davis) so many people have recommended highly about her and am just starting with her from Brisbane Australia 🇦🇺

[@scottreagan9796]

Trading crypto now should be wise, but trading without an expert isn't advisable. I tried trading on my own but keep on losing.

[@alpalchevskiy6488]

2:27:38 very nicely put. I don't know if it's completely true but totally makes sense to me.

[@SashaOster]

Fascinating and important discussion!

[@djrafaelhulme]

I am ALWAYS intrigued by your videos, but lack 3 and a quarter hourst to find out. I'd hate to tell you, the experts how to run a channel, but if there was a shorter version im IN.

[@Preciouspink]

2 minuets in and a solution comes to mind. Build your societies outside of Hierarchical structures.

[@MystifulHD]

They’ll call that “communism” and hierarchies have been “necessary throughout history” 🤣

[@Preciouspink]

Bear skins and stone tools much?

[@jsedge2473]

@@MystifulHD What the fuck are you on about, Communism is VERY hierarchical. Maybe even more so. Just look at how the CCP functions or the USSR. Let me guess, "uhhh thats not real communism" The real answer is that its impossible. Everything in life is hierarchical. Your family is hierarchical. Your friend group is hierarchical. Your workplace is hierarchical. Your dogs are hierarchical. The ants in your yard are hierarchical. If you put 10 random people in a room they'll form a non-spoken hierarchy in minutes, some people are more dominant, some people are better speakers, some people are smarter, some people are better leaders. some people are more personable and friendly, they'll be at the top of the 10 random person hierarchy instantly. Nothing in life is equal, there is always hierarchy even if it upsets you because you're not doing so well at it. You can't name one society that isn't this way because it has never existed and can never exist.

[@Preciouspink]

@@jsedge2473 hierarchies are the (rule of nature) not of God or the Constitutional ideal of humanity. I believe it when Christians oft cite Jesus would have com3 and die for any of us ever if we were the only one on Earth.it can exist, (Jordan Peterson) The angels of everyone’s better nature is all that is needed.

[@MystifulHD]

@@jsedge2473 of course it is!! lmfao

[@u2b83]

4:00 is is also known as "the PE ratio" ....so the key to investing success is predicting the fed balance sheet? 1:16:28 He suggests that the chiner credit cycle can predict (i.e. "leads") the US markets.

[@bigvalexander8917]

I'm confused why does Tom say the date is March 2023 regarding when it's being recorded? If this is a repackage it should be referenced in the title. I've been listening intently only to realize it's over a year old.

[@nated80]

God I wish Tom would stop interrupting Raoul so often. There were so many times Raoul was on a roll and Tom cut him off right when things were interesting.

[@yashinnil5047]

yea .. it was a pain to watch

[@INeedsMoneys]

You're watching a conversation not a monologue

[@nated80]

@@INeedsMoneys No, i'm not watching a conversation, conversations allow free movement of speech and ideas. When one person can't talk because the other consistently cuts them off, it's not a conversation.

[@SilverLumberjack]

Why re post older interviews?

[@leslietongue]

Algorithms of how to keep viewership and subscriptions up in between contentless periods

[@ZiggleFingers]

Because it helps pump nerd tokens

[@peterkleynhans8056]

Nerd Tokens that makes more than any other asset known to mankind. @@ZiggleFingers

[@masalachaimasta]

Tom, I commend you for your seemingly infinite patience and I would love if you make a supplemental summary video of all the main points in this video (with some top level visual aid!!!). This is an important subject and yet just attempting to communicate about it is probably the highest skill cap of communication the world has ever seen next to at like....engineers at SpaceX. No offense to Raoul, but I think these concepts are way too convoluted and cerebral for his explanation style which is a rigid, unfriendly style and includes a fair bit of pontification. Then he made just one simple slip-up around the 43:15 mark and even people who had been following would have been lost.... but luckily you caught him. Anyway, takeaway for me is you proved yourself as a master communicator that showed everyone how to handle a person like Raoul. I'm now considering signing up for your program to learn more from you so.... I guess that proves there is always a Brightside. Keep up the amazing work, sir.

[@mwilliamson4198]

I follow RP on his website, and have studied his material in some detail. I can tell you he has written multi-hundred page reports about this, read by high level fund managers. It is NOT easy to explain these things to a general audience on a podcast like this. I think it's like trying to explain bitcoin to a general audience and trying to also be succinct. I think it's extremely difficult to do, because it requires explaining a LOT of difficult, convoluted ideas AND it requires explaining things about the financial system that most people, even with Economics degrees don't know.

[@varkdot3921]

@Tom I love you and everything you do, but you gotta make a mental distinction between Hype (which means-extravagant or intensive publicity or promotion) and Metcalfe’s Law, ie. Growth, which is not publicity and promotion. You’re fixated on trying to make them equivalent and they’re not.

[@kellyguta]

No no no, it's Black Rock, State Street and Van Guard

[@kellyguta]

And CIA and JP Morgan Chase. Bank and many other financial institutions

[@LivingInChicagoAndTheSuburbs]

Agree with this quite a bit.

[@prowineinvestor9432]

You certainly won't "unf**k your future" by listening to Raoul Pal. If you had listened to him you would have gone "all in" on ETH in 2021 at $4,800. You would have had a big LUNA position just before it went to $0. You would have piled into ARK in 2021 and lost 70% of your money, and you would probably also have bought a Bored Ape at the top of that bubble - just like Raoul did (at $425k, current price $60k).

[@stayliftedman]

Sounds like someone took Financial Advice from someone who said Non Financial Advice!

[@franklyanogre00000]

​@@stayliftedman Free advice is never worth the price. Good work ain't cheap; cheap work ain't good.

[@giovannipiazza007]

I got some land on the moon if anyone is interested, let me know. Thanks.

[@marsmotion]

@@stayliftedman the guy points out some good info and snark is all you got....go watch msm

[@americafirstmaga5073]

I believe Pal, when he said the last time real wages went up was 1972. Going off a real gold monetary system where any paper bill was worth that much in gold,silver. A country wouldn't be able to print more than the gold it had. Debt meant giving up real physical gold that you couldn't get back. The "petro dollar" only worked because anyone buying oil had to convert to U.S. currency. We're not able to easily force countries to do that anymore. They had no choice, or we'd go in and take their oil. -- The only way the U.S. can really get "out from under" is pay off our debt ($34 trillion+) by real GDP growth. Produce & sell our way out and pay down the debt. How does anyone pay debt or lose everything if they don't? They make more money and pay it faster in bigger chunks. A big increase in production & selling goods to more "customers". (Make more $$). That's what President Trump as a businessman understands. 1. That's why he always said he took in billions from China in trade imbalances with tariffs. 2. He wants to "drill baby drill", "Liquid Gold" and increase Oil & Gas sales to anyone that will buy it. And get our manufacturing back from China, Mexico.etv President Trump was working with urgency to make more capital & grow the GDP. His sense of urgency is what we need, he approached it like the guy that owes the "bookie", "loan shark" $1 million . Pay the interest every week or in full, or get your knees broken. It's a big task, but the honest way to pay off debt to a point that it's not a big issue anymore. Even if $34t got paid down 30% in 10 yrs, cut the interest in half,would be great. This can easily be done, except for the countries that want us to stay economically weak like China are working against us.

[@juliehogle5252]

Thanks for the hot tip ❤

[@user-ff7ht9wj6x]

Hallelujah!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻was owning a loan of $47,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery (David), Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $8,000 and got my payout of m $270,500 every months,God bless Susan Jane Christy 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸..

[@Jamiewhite663]

I know nothing about trading /investment and l'm keen on getting started. What are some strategies to get started with?

[@rk0l59hs-6g]

As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. I'm guided by a widely known crypto consultant

[@rk0l59hs-6g]

Mrs Nancy Williams Laplace

[@-vv3rv]

This is correct, Nancy Williams strategy has normalized winning trades for me also and it’s a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started.

[@hectorbell754]

Nancy is considered a key Crypto Strategist with one of the best copy Trading portfolio and also a very active in the cryptocurrency space.

[@user-fe9nv9lw9f]

The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional

[@benschaffer7112]

Amazing conversation, one of my favorite discussions I have listened to in the past two years.

[@dianna5366]

Please may I ask when this episode was recorded? It says pinned but also states that it was done couple days ago….thank you!

[@subhranshudas8862]

Love it when Raoul comes for a talk. I know my bags are getting bigger.

[@AliBooondok]

In summary: Rao Paul says that all ownership and power should accumulate to a few people and everyone else should own nothing, say nothing, and be happy as slaves to the few people. Otherwise, the whole system collapses and has to rebuild. Basically he is trying to protect his own wealth and power at the expense of others and doesn’t want to have to re-accumulate his gains from the corrupt system and start back from a lower wealth total. The story is as old as time. The right way is for the system to collapse and the people to rebuild fairly and more slowly using constrained money supplies so that debt can’t exceed the total wealth. We are in this situation because a few people figured out how to steal from the majority in secret and over time while also printing their own wealth and using it against the majority.

[@lynb1022]

Bless you. Reading these comments, I thought I was the only one getting progressively outraged by his completely out of touch Already Wealthy & Secure Person logic.

[@norvikgrigorian4518]

I love this! Amazing!

[@claireboxer6027]

you two are two of my favourite people at the moment.

[@surfermystery]

Best interview with Raoul you really picked his brain

[@RawandCookedVegan]

So great to hear this common sense. The hardcore libertarians live in a fantasy land. Thank you Raoul & Tom!

[@billy-joemarr2497]

loved it roul thanks tom

[@dannyshark7822]

Good interview, great guest.

[@oldrin1876]

This is a great video, more people need to watch it!

[@williedeananencounterwithg439]

Raoul Pal thank you great interview

[@fiddlerJohn]

Norbert Haring Cycle: “Modeling the financial cycle correctly requires recognizing the fundamental monetary nature of our economies" 2:20:14 I don't think it's a coincidence that the "Haring cycle" and all of this is all related

[@briank7894]

You should include recording dates, else it is misleading. Feels slimy. Time horizons matter, especially in the recession piece. Good work, but give context

[@NickyBigatto25]

That Breedlove/Raul Paul episode is HIGHLY educational.

[@Colonel.27]

Thanks for the great videos, Tom!

[@fuckyeahtv4897]

Excellent podcast.

[@nerradnevar]

Thanks Tom and Raoul - on Raoul’s su suggestion I went and watched the session with Emad Mostaque and was absolutely blown away

[@mustafadanishmand64]

thanks

[@NoNameAfterGoogleChangedit]

1:34:36 that’s not what gdp is showing. That’s an.. explain it to a 5 yo explanation. Gdp is used to measure economy by comparing it to national debt. Gdp represents how productive a country is.. and is calculated using total spending. Nothing else. Business spending, consumer spending, and govt spending. Spent within our borders. On goods and services and infrastructure/capital investments. Some consumers who are spending receive their money through SS benefits. It’s likely a high %age of benefits received are spent. Also included… in govt spending is SS benefits paid out. This is the issue. They are double counting the spending… SS funds are supposed to be trust funds. But the govt took loan against them in 70s or 80s.. that evolved into using them for all kinds of govt spending including defense. Govt should follow same accounting practice and report info similar to how some non profits have to.

[@lynb1022]

And GDP increases with disaster capitalism. Natural disasters, crime/homelessness/encampment response and prisons raises GDP too, but only in the alternate universe of patently insane economics does anyone see this as "productive", while unpaid child/elder-care is considered "not productive". Internet says in Dec2023 UK debt-to-GDP ratio was 99%, U.S. was 122%, Canada 104% (I call bullshit), Japan 252%, China 288% ... And still our pundits say "the economy is fine". Unreal. *StatsCan says "Debt-to-income ratios were the highest for core working-age households (aged 35 to 64) in the third quarter of 2023, ranging from 164.2% to 255.9%" Wow.

[@steviedsolve]

28 mins in - metcalf Law back and forth. I love the push back from Tom. Number of nodes (users) X number of use cases (applications) = Metcalfs Law. What if the users are all speculators is what Tom is asking. Then eventually the thing might die or morph into something else. e.g. Blackberry users all became iphone users. Metcalf law still stands in terms of core tech/use case, but the applications can change and the users migrate.

[@abrahamisabella8513]

Great interview 👍

[@handyrams4822]

This very difficult to watch with ads played every two minutes.

[@Zeno.of.Citium]

Metcalf's Law is a principle based on the intrinsic value derived from the growth of a network. It posits that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its users, suggesting an exponential increase in value as the network expands. This law focuses on the practical and theoretical underpinnings of a network's value, grounded in the idea that more users create more value through increased connections and potential transactions. Hype, on the other hand, refers to the external perception, excitement, or speculative interest in a technology or asset, which may not always be grounded in its intrinsic or fundamental value. Hype can drive price fluctuations based on news, trends, social media influence, and investor sentiment, often leading to volatile swings in price that may not directly correlate with the actual use or adoption rate of the technology.

[@sudhirpatel7620]

Nature goes on forever for everyone and everything to return as everyone and everything an infinite number of times through evolutionary processes. 🌌

[@clinicalconsultingcenters3240]

Lack of productivity is associated with distorted social issues. Work ethics, discipline , and super divided guiding principles are making people useless. It’s not so much a generational dilemma, rather it’s based on psychosocial logorythmic decay which has been deconstructing our social fabric in a very gradual and pernicious rate.

[@flightreview3785]

Interesting views, however there were a few very wrong conclusions, eg about the FED role in the economy, UK leaving the EU and energy prices going down due to green energy. UK will be fine in the future. Thanks for the the many other good insights.

[@armedjames2279]

I absolutely! Love this conversation. Thank you and I’m shocked at the extent and amount of information I just received or listened to. I subscribed and will be watching more. Just awesome. Keep this information coming with this gentleman. Love it .

[@Cinnabuns2009]

recorded this in March of 2023 and you're showing it to us now?? wow, super helpful, thanks so much for the "info" about "the brink of collapse" 4 months in to LAST year? \s

[@ThePeacefulResistor]

Milton Friedman said this decades ago. He was the greatest economist of our time and he was absolutely correct.

[@jenasteiner6611]

Very interesting.

[@alpayerdogrul]

Thanks for the NFT Raoul "Do not ffck this up". Already sold it over Magic Eden for 300 Solana!

[@alexisbirdjove7140]

Can we get a list of the books Quoted on this interview?

[@MargueritaEFT]

This is an extremely interesting conversation. But there's one major factor that neither of you are considering, and that's the massive shift in global consciousness that we're going through right now. This is the biggest shift in consciousness we've ever experienced. Plus the multi-dimensional shift that's happening. When you take that into consideration, all discussions about the current and future state of the economy are irrelevant. And if, God forbid, humanity doesn't complete the shift, we're f'd anyway, because we've been living on borrowed time as a species for several decades. Eckhart Tolle said it perfectly - 'we either evolve, or we die'. He wasn't referring to AI!

[@megarxidas17]

When was this video aired

[@roarfordal2560]

As of my understanding the part about market cycles and the need for central banks is a utter misunderstanding of how an economical free markets work. Comparing it to the cycles of crypto( and mixing the term of cryptos with bitcoin) also show a lack of understanding. To have prosperity for all, the basis of capitalism is the incentive of a low time preference to incentivise saving and then capital accumulation , which then will direct the saved capital into productive investments that increase the production cycle, improve goods and services and create a way for investors to accurately examine the opportunity cost for those market goods/ investments. I do agree that the need for banking and government is needed, but in a different way that today - Easy said - decrease the largess of the state and banking sector and remove its ability to tinker with monetary expansion and interest manipulation, and political incentive to regulate to monetary policy.

[@heeverindustries]

Would be good to add timelines I think.

[@ice1012001]

What's the thinking of the best way to ride out the events happening now or to safeguard? Stocks, bonds, cash what?