Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

🔥 𝗝𝗢𝗜𝗡 Real Vision for FREE rvtv.io/3MMeRfQ. David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins Ash Bennington to share his views on the current state of the economy, a growing disconnect between supply and demand, and what it means for the potential of a recession. David also discusses the bubble he sees forming in the stock market, and where he's spotting investment opportunities. Recorded on Thursday, June 20th.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049
01:01 - Introduction of David Rosenberg
01:37 - David's perspective on the current economy
02:18 - Comparison to the 2007 economic outlook
03:33 - Recession pressures and the business cycle
04:11 - Impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy
05:25 - Credit card debt and delinquency rates
06:41 - Changes in consumer behavior and credit card balances
07:53 - The role of excess savings and stimulus checks
08:27 - San Francisco Fed report on excess savings
09:02 - Consumer revolt against high prices
10:06 - Discrepancy between current economic conditions and the Fed's statements
11:23 - Historical comparisons to 2008 and recession signals
12:34 - Overstated non-farm payrolls and data revisions
13:37 - Signs of a potential recession in various economic sectors
14:13 - GDP growth and economic activity slowing down
15:17 - Lack of catalysts for re-acceleration in growth
16:26 - Importance of supply and demand in forecasting inflation
18:11 - Expectations for disinflation and Fed rate cuts
19:20 - Discussion on current trend growth and productivity gains
21:04 - Labor force participation and its impact on the economy
22:15 - Disconnect between productivity gains and aggregate demand
23:26 - Impact of housing and consumer behavior on the economy
24:34 - Global economic conditions and their effect on US exports
25:40 - Outlook on inflation and interest rates without a recession
26:16 - Increasing unemployment rate and its impact on wages
27:23 - Supply curve dynamics leading to disinflation
28:43 - Capacity growth in the industrial sector
29:18 - Expectations for inflation to reach the Fed's target
30:26 - Implications for asset prices and the stock market
31:39 - Concentration risk and the impact of high-performing tech stocks
33:33 - Concerns about excessive valuations and investor behavior
35:08 - Importance of thematic investing and capital preservation
36:50 - Sectors with growth potential: Aerospace, defense, utilities, and healthcare
38:57 - Trading down and frugality trends among consumers
40:14 - Staples and essential sectors as investment opportunities
41:37 - Utilities as a growth area due to climate change and infrastructure needs
43:17 - The role of gold and gold mining stocks in a disinflationary environment
44:56 - Impact of passive indexation on market distortions
46:41 - Risks of bubble bursts and historical parallels
48:02 - Potential market corrections and investor psychology
50:13 - Advice on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing
51:57 - Importance of capital preservation and conservative investing
52:36 - Final thoughts on the current market cycle
53:47 - Importance of historical context in investing decisions
54:33 - Sentiment and psychology driving market behavior
55:52 - Recommendations for protective strategies in investing
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[@RealVisionFinance]

🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision rvtv.io/3MMeRfQ 00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 01:01 - Introduction of David Rosenberg 01:37 - David's perspective on the current economy 02:18 - Comparison to the 2007 economic outlook 03:33 - Recession pressures and the business cycle 04:11 - Impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy 05:25 - Credit card debt and delinquency rates 06:41 - Changes in consumer behavior and credit card balances 07:53 - The role of excess savings and stimulus checks 08:27 - San Francisco Fed report on excess savings 09:02 - Consumer revolt against high prices 10:06 - Discrepancy between current economic conditions and the Fed's statements 11:23 - Historical comparisons to 2008 and recession signals 12:34 - Overstated non-farm payrolls and data revisions 13:37 - Signs of a potential recession in various economic sectors 14:13 - GDP growth and economic activity slowing down 15:17 - Lack of catalysts for re-acceleration in growth 16:26 - Importance of supply and demand in forecasting inflation 18:11 - Expectations for disinflation and Fed rate cuts 19:20 - Discussion on current trend growth and productivity gains 21:04 - Labor force participation and its impact on the economy 22:15 - Disconnect between productivity gains and aggregate demand 23:26 - Impact of housing and consumer behavior on the economy 24:34 - Global economic conditions and their effect on US exports 25:40 - Outlook on inflation and interest rates without a recession 26:16 - Increasing unemployment rate and its impact on wages 27:23 - Supply curve dynamics leading to disinflation 28:43 - Capacity growth in the industrial sector 29:18 - Expectations for inflation to reach the Fed's target 30:26 - Implications for asset prices and the stock market 31:39 - Concentration risk and the impact of high-performing tech stocks 33:33 - Concerns about excessive valuations and investor behavior 35:08 - Importance of thematic investing and capital preservation 36:50 - Sectors with growth potential: Aerospace, defense, utilities, and healthcare 38:57 - Trading down and frugality trends among consumers 40:14 - Staples and essential sectors as investment opportunities 41:37 - Utilities as a growth area due to climate change and infrastructure needs 43:17 - The role of gold and gold mining stocks in a disinflationary environment 44:56 - Impact of passive indexation on market distortions 46:41 - Risks of bubble bursts and historical parallels 48:02 - Potential market corrections and investor psychology 50:13 - Advice on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing 51:57 - Importance of capital preservation and conservative investing 52:36 - Final thoughts on the current market cycle 53:47 - Importance of historical context in investing decisions 54:33 - Sentiment and psychology driving market behavior 55:52 - Recommendations for protective strategies in investing

[@deseosuho]

Thanks for the very detailed table of contents. Appreciate it.

[@prolific1518]

How is the pinned comment older than the video???

[@dpie4859]

Permabear will eventually be right. But he cried WOLF for a long time. 😂

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@jaykraft9523]

Rosenberg 5 years ago: "We'll have a recession next year" (no recession). 4 years ago: "recession has already started" (no recession) 2 years ago: "the risk is recession" (no recession) 1 year ago: "recession is slamming demand" (no recession) 9 months ago: "recession coming in 6 months" (no recession). Trend here ?

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@rahulparikh6183]

Lool that’s what all these KZbin channels do man it’s the new mainstream media. They just want your views.

[@vdynmx]

The Raoul Pal special

[@magpieeuc4846]

UK entered a Recession in March.

[@jonaskuiper5859]

You get the money from the money print press ,its illegal and a big crime against the people who have no stocks or property. You are a bad investor but get richer by the FED.

[@Mr_Hundredaire]

If Rosenberg videos post, hold all my calls

[@andrewkroger701]

Perpetual bear. Has cost his followers a fortune

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thank you for sharing your thoughts!

[@briancolla6486]

This guy has been stating the recession narrative for at least 4 years now, at some point he will be right. But for his forecast to be of any value he has to have the timing be correct. Otherwise there is zero value in it.

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for pointing out the importance of timing in forecasting.

[@StockGenius152]

How many years of a missed bull market does it take before you’re considered wrong???

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for the thought-provoking question! It's always good to reflect on our investment strategies and learn from missed opportunities.

[@grantw7946]

Dave, based on what you said, it looks to me like you should have been bullish in the face of all the liquidity. Now might be the the time to go short.

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, it's great to have a variety of opinions.

[@user-gl5mq4xq5m]

Raul, whee is Maggie? What did you do with her?

[@fatfatthewaterrat5010]

The market carried out Wilson and Kalonavic. If Rosie actually had any skin in the game he’d have been carted offf a long time ago. As soon as Rosie capitulates put a fork in it. It’s done.

[@jmcmob608]

Thank you very much...

[@RealVisionFinance]

So nice of you

[@TedHawk]

It's much easier to build up the demand curve. Encouraging that the supply curve is building additional capacity. When the cuts happen, demand will respond quickly. Inflation may temporarily hit the Fed target, but this will be "transitory".

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thank you for sharing your insights on the demand and supply curves. It's always valuable to have these discussions.

[@CrispinBac0n]

FFS RAOL! YOU'VE GIVEN ME MORE HOMEWORK! THE MOST SINCE YOU DID THAT VID IN 2021(??) ABOUT THE S&P AND THE CRASHES THERE (PROFITED) BTW........ MASSES OF HOMEWORK AGAIN. AYE THIS VID IS A RECAP OF LOTS OF INFO PUSHED OUT BY REAL VISION (MACRO) IT IS NICE TO SEE AND NICE TO SEE IT ALL PUT TOGETHER TO REMIND THE STUDENTS. GREAT TEACHERS DO THIS! THE BEST TEACHERS WITH A BROAD SYLLABUS PUT ALL THE BITESIZED BITS TOGETHER AND SHOW HOW STRAIGHT FORWARD ALL THESE INTERESTING FACTORS ARE AND HOW THE FACTORS THREAD TOGETHER.....BRING HOME THE BACON

[@heatherbarnes3587]

Lower prices always excites me even when broke! Learn for many years and you will make wise decisions even if not trading but rather long term investors! ❤️low prices! No matter how small you buy gains are coming! Just don’t buy high!

[@timothycarne3151]

How can nominal GDP have a 1 handle with government spending alone +2-3%?

[@coop-us7tp]

What part about 'the government needs currency devaluation' doesn't this guy get?

[@pascal5142]

for your info, the following countries have been in a recession for 2 years already on again off again: germany england sweden, china, japan, those are the troubled nations this time. and we are about to come OUT of a recession in 2025 after the election and after the january debt ceiling so we are in 1983 or 1923 after a huge inflation run cooled down also unemployment is clearly rising so his labour force growth call comes exactly at the wrong time. rosenberg doesnt invest money for a living, he just sell his opinion or "research" so he has no skin in the game! he can keep being wrong for infinity without the market punishing him. real vision, please next time you invite him do it as a 2way or 3 way debate with other people so they can argue with each other, so we see all the flaws pointed out

[@RealVisionFinance]

Appreciate your detailed analysis and suggestions for future interviews on Real Vision.

[@hafeld8348]

Does anyone even bother listening to this guy? Like a stopped clock he will be right some year and then say "See." Meanwhile he has missed a great bull run for the last two years.

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@prolific1518]

"bull run" of 7 stocks 🤡

[@hafeld8348]

@@prolific1518 That is enough for me.

[@andrewdennis6209]

What about the fed backed home equity loans? Couldn’t that re-accelerate things?

[@mskmsk7174]

This guy REFUSES to admit he has been and is still WRONG!

[@jborges5576]

lol! This guy’s been calling for a recession for about the last FIVE years!! 😂😂😂😂😂

[@mwilliamson4198]

What's he talking about? "Most people" saying economy is doing well. Based on my KZbin video suggestions it's quite the opposite. Most people expecting recession / "collapse"

[@shawn576]

He means most people on TV. People who live in the real world are losing their minds over how bad things have become. Food prices are way up, there's no overtime at work, and pay raises are nowhere close to matching inflation for the past 4 years.

[@randybaker6042]

A bit out of touch with reality when it comes to the common consumer. No. The stimulus into the pockets of the common consumer did not load their pockets. It is being referred to as if everyone got 50k in their pocket. Lawn chairs for the backyard? Comical.

[@RealVisionFinance]

Your feedback is appreciated!

[@saxonsmith1475]

That bit with Anoush was helerious 😂

[@RealVisionFinance]

I'm glad you enjoyed that part with Anoush!

[@balabolrustam507]

The years of Covid were also years of great resignation , were compensations went up 40%, and that part is still there , in contrast of mentioned depleted savings

[@prolific1518]

Throw in underemployed gig workers and unemployment is higher than 10%

[@adsf255]

❤

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@prolific1518]

10:40 Jerome Powell is a political operative. His only goal is to get Biden reelected.

[@conservativejoe4025]

😂😂😂He believes the climate change narrative😂😂😂😂

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@dbehr4869]

Always wrong Rosenberg!

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thank you for watching!

[@sbd7589]

Ash looks like he's gained a bit of weight. Everything ok Ash?

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@Singer0027]

First

[@RealVisionFinance]

You were quick on the draw to claim the first spot!