The Naira Should Be Trading Under N1,000 To The Dollar - Ibukun Omoyeni

Ibukun Omoyeni, Sub-Saharan Africa Economist with Vetiva Capital Management Ltd, spoke to the Global Business Report about Vetiva’s H2 2024 Outlook Report
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[@nwachiks]

Should be trading and is trading are 2 different things... Oga rest.

[@TomiwaAdegbola]

In life there is economic theories and economic realities. the two are scarcely the same.

[@babajideamure108]

Nigeria is just a different kettle of fish. We really need to look inwards to develop policies that work for us

[@enod9746]

There has to be a balance. We cannot keep using the excuse of using high interest rates to make T-Bills more attractive as a means of anchoring the Naira at the expense of slowing down growth and heaping undue pressure on a labour market that is about to face more stress from a higher minimum wage.

[@4evertrue830]

How is the labour market going to face more stress from min wage increase? It should be a blessing. The minimum wage recommended by the Fed govt will be increased by 100% but food prices have tripled to over 450% maybe more, e.g a tuber of yam formerly N1,500 is now N8,000. So, where is the stress? Besides, what this economic analyst is not saying here is, from where is the strong demand for the naira coming from to help it gain value to N1,000 per $1 and even more with time, where????

[@enod9746]

​@@4evertrue830 First let me set you straight because you do not know what a "labour market" is. A labour market is defined as the "availability of job vacancies and the workers needed to fill those vacancies, as defined by market forces." So when I speak of the labour market, availability of workers is on the one hand, and availability of positions/vacancies to be filled is on the other. A 2022 survey by the International Labour Organization (ILO) of which the NLC is a member union, found that SMEs account for 96% of businesses and 84% of all employment in Nigeria. You can see for yourself the kind of financial burden businesses are facing with lack of electricity, increased diesel and petrol costs post-subsidy removal, and the multiplicity of taxes they have to pay (CIT, National Information Technology Development Levy (NITDL), Personal Income Tax (PIT), Value Added Tax (VAT), Stamp Duties (SD) and Tertiary Education Tax (EDT). When you add an increased wage bill that will follow the national minimum wage increase (let's say from N30,000 to N100,000; a 230% increase), how many of these MSMEs that account for 84% of all jobs in Nigeria, will be able to stay in business, let alone be able to pay the new minimum wage? Now back to what I said. When the CBN keeps jacking up interest rates (which is the percentage cost of loans issues to commercial banks, who will then mark this up to their borrowing customers), how will an increase in minimum wage be a blessing to the labour market? How will it increase ability of MSMEs to employ the millions of unemployed in Nigeria? Like I said, if you had understood the definition of the labour market in the context of my initial submission, you would not have put up what you wrote there. I wait for you to counter my second submission with facts.

[@phemphemmy6103]

The analyst knows his onions !

[@thankgodmudnoe3524]

It's ok but Nigeria economics doesn't follow normal economics it's nigerionomics

[@gt-world-s7i]

No other oil producing country has ever devalued its currency against the dollar, euro, or pound except Nigeria! Nigeria has devalued the Naira uncountable times since Babangida. Are those in charge of our monetary policy just a bunch of theorists reduced to defending IMF and World Bank destructive policies? There is no justifiable reason for Nigeria to have removed "oil subsidy" and devalued/floated the Naira at the same time!

[@4evertrue830]

It all has to do with Nigeria's high foreign debt. If you want to pay off as quickly as possible the foreign debt, the CBN decides to devalue the naira to create that extra cash to pay it off. That is the hidden secret they are not telling you. It is deliberate. Everything else being said here is just nonsense. .😉

[@jkelvin5834]

So in all Nigeria nor go better for h2 nawa

[@mikolowiskamikolowiska4993]

How. UNA gree produce anything

[@Meme-m2n1i]

This analyst is very eloquent which i admire but how does all he has said translate to food on the poor man's table.

[@Abillsable]

Food on the man's table is the man's daily business, work, hussle. the government has no business feeding the man, but to make the environment condusive for the man through sound economic management practices. The man will have to work to eat!

[@Meme-m2n1i]

​@@AbillsableThose responsible for the creating the conducive environment are clearly not doing it. No light, no water etc

[@estheroginni1797]

​@@AbillsableThe man woke up, hustling, planted on his farm, but couldn't harvest cos cow ate up his produce and his life is threatened. What else do u want the man to do, now that govt is absolved of the lack of food on the table

[@CuriousConnoisseurs]

KENIAN SCHILLING is SMASHING DOLLAR

[@MeekAduan]

A lot of assumptions that will never happen due to our political system to get you down to N1,060. In reality Naira should be around N800to $1. It’s the political corruption and mismanagement premium that is why we’re at N1,600 today. Not hard to figure out.

[@ia6145]

Gbam. That is what happens when you turn customs to revenue generator. The money customs generate I can bet you if you audit them, you see huge looting in customs.

[@AghaBaba-q6v]

Well said. The assumptions are plausible, however political corruption is the main problem

[@josephihedoro8729]

​@ia6145 but you pretend not to know that Tinubu and his incompetence and his juvenile nepotistic economic Lagos team with their flip-flop policies are the main cause of the hardship in Nigeria.

[@ia6145]

@@josephihedoro8729 I am not pretending. I know Tinubu and his Ikoyi boys economist are throwing everything on the wall to see which one sticks. When you have unstable exchange rate it affects businesses. The man in charge of customs is Tinubus boy. Customs said they made 4.5trillion naira first quarter of this year. Where did that money go to?

[@JatoImoh]

​@@josephihedoro8729 Tinubu is not the reason the naira is crashing. That's cheap political point right there.

[@Foodies0147]

How can naira be trading at thousand plus to th dollars , where by a dollar to Rands its moving between 17 / 18 . Shame Nigerias big shame

[@mikolowiskamikolowiska4993]

The wọn trades over a thousand. They have Samsung. What does South Africa have

[@richardakpan5291]

Too much theory

[@mikolowiskamikolowiska4993]

Is he lying

[@phlintify]

Textbook and politically correct economic rhetorics won't help us. Show workings ... The nation should get to doing the right things - create an enabling business environment and increase production. Not all these patch job and cho cho cho!