ARK Loves This Drone Stock. Is It a Buy?

[@Nanalyze]

Want to learn more about exciting disruptive technology stocks? Click the below link 👇👇👇 kzbin.info

[@MrMentalpuppy]

Aerovironment is interesting! Didn't know they had such a large share. Kratos seems meh, I wish anduril was public 😂 Palmer is an interesting chap.

[@Nanalyze]

Didn't come away finding Kratos to be very compelling. A further look into AeroVironment might be merited for those who like dabbling in defense drones. Yep, Anduril is rather interesting though they're probably pretty opaque as well.

[@yannhusson411]

@Nanalyze I'm invested in defense companies ( LMT, GD and RTX) for their constant earnings and buybacks. I find that AVAV has the problem of constantly diluting its shareholders.

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you for the comment. A cursory look shows that dilution (in percentage terms) over the past decade for AVAV isn't all that bad. Good thing to watch for!

[@ilparle]

That opening line was really good. You ever thought about becoming a rapper? Something tells me the nanalyze mixtape would drop harder then 08. Good content as always 🔥

[@Nanalyze]

It's not the worst idea I've heard for a pivot. Glad you're enjoying the content! Joe P.

[@factotums]

A similar issue was one reason I thought Palantir would never scale because the NSA or DHS would sign them to exclusive contracts and stuff them on a Pacific Island somewhere never to be heard of again, outside of Twitter. But it seems they have a decent commercial sector as well.

[@Nanalyze]

Palantir needs that commercial sector to become a majority of revenues. They talk about it all the time but it still hasn't happened yet.

[@DonWalstead]

I found Kratos a month ago. I love heir story. I got out just before it tanked but I keep them on my watch list.

[@Nanalyze]

Always invest in companies, not stocks ;)

[@DonWalstead]

@@Nanalyze I agree with you about investing in Kratos is good from a company standpoint. I'm doing a small. account challange and I'm looking for stocks that are more volatile. When I get to buy and hold I may buy again. I like their Ai drones. I did make a couple bucks on Kratos.

[@sneakersda2199]

The hope or speculation is that Kratos will be awarded a big contract in the second round of CCA’s. Or that they will be acquired by one of the big dogs. General Atomics and Anduril are not publicly traded and Boeing has problems. If Palmer Lucky ever takes Anduril public, I would jump in there.

[@Nanalyze]

Ah yes, the old hopium pipe ;) We'll definitely cover Andruil if they ever go public!

[@sneakersda2199]

I just checked and I’m in at 22.18 DCA in Kratos. I am now thinking of bailing or putting a stop in on those while I’m still green. But then again they just got a $45 million national security satellite contract on Oct. 14, so it seems they are getting noticed and awarded contracts by the DOD besides just CCA engineering. But that capital I have tied up there… I’m sure I could find a better position for it elsewhere

[@Nanalyze]

​@@sneakersda2199 We take a very long term approach to investing in companies and don't pull the trigger on anything we're not able and willing to hold for a decade(s) or more. Only reason to exit is if growth stalls or thesis changes :) Important to have a methodology and stick with it, regardless of what rules you decide upon.

[@adrenaline4life]

ONDAS is a drone stock that is up-and-coming they just took on some huge contracts on top of getting rare FAA patent approval. I think this company is going to do big things they sat back on the sidelines for a while but now they're taking off

[@Nanalyze]

We don't care about contracts (only revenues) and we don't use language like "taking off" around here. Thinking something is going to do "big things" is cheerleader language. Again, not allowed. Focus on facts. Too small to be on our radar.

[@azulsimmons1040]

I've been looking for drone and robot stocks recently as well. I saw some cleaning drones deployed at grocery stores recently. I was thinking that is an interesting segment. I started to consider what type of drones and robots would be easier to deploy with with less regulation than self-driving cars or delivery drones. Cleaning robots, office task robots, and robots with less of a possible danger to humans by doing tasks that don't represent a big danger like being on roads or in airspace. These would allow quicker deployment and faster returns on capital. Finding some less popular, but more deployable robot and drone companies that fly under the radar doing menial corporate tasks that still save money and lead to cost efficiency would be interesting to look at.

[@Nanalyze]

Great comment as usual. Is a floor-cleaning robot a drone? Maybe, but we've largely considered drones as those that can fly. Flying robots if you will. You make a good point about exploring domains with less regulation. When I was in New Zealand for several months meeting with agtech firms I found one that developed a robot that cleaned stainless steel tanks. Huge demand for that solution which handles a dull, dirty, and dangerous job. Stay tuned for another piece on drones. Joe P.

[@azulsimmons1040]

The problem I am seeing is a lot of robot companies deploying these specialized robots are private. Hard to access them. I've start tracking some of them to see if they ever go public. I'm looking forward to your drone research to see if I can sift anything interesting.

[@Nanalyze]

@@azulsimmons1040 You are correct. Blue collar robots (private) covered here: www.nanalyze.com/tag/blue-collar-robots/

[@mikesgarage394]

AI Kratos drones recently beat Human piloted fighters.

[@Nanalyze]

Yes, they're cool looking for sure and appear to perform quite well! But the ultimate metric that proves usability is always revenues.

[@eprohoda]

Salut- total unreal . farewell, Nanalyze~ )

[@Nanalyze]

You'll need to articulate your thoughts a bit more otherwise we haven't a clue what you're saying ;)

[@AlmostELV]

We don’t invest in stocks we invest in companies Strong line few can understand it

[@Nanalyze]

We say that all the time and you are absolutely right.

[@terrestrialaccessnetwork8456]

If Cathie bought it then… 😂

[@Nanalyze]

One would hope people aren't dumb enough to ape any active manager. Note that many were doing that when she was in vogue.

[@Nanalyze]

We're old enough to remember when Aunt Cathie could do no wrong.

[@mikesgarage394]

I f I knew ARK had Kratos, I would not have bought Kratos.

[@Nanalyze]

Now you know ;)

[@kaloyanstefanov2388]

Cool stuff. Like many value centric investors I don't look forward for something that might happen, but rather look into the past and draw my conclusions. This company went public in 1999. What stopped the management to develop their ideas for 2 decades filled with geopolitical uncertainty and abundance of resources? If I invested in LMT in 2000 I'd be sitting on 3000% gain. Same investment in this company would have been loss of over 70% at the moment. Why would I want to bet my money here with the current metrics of this company - making it more expensive than NVDA for example? The margin of safety here is non existent and this is not great money making company trading at fair price imo. Best of luck to the holders 😊

[@Nanalyze]

This comment makes a good point. Just wondering what "current metrics' make this more expensive than NVIDIA?

[@kaloyanstefanov2388]

@@Nanalyze let's take price/growth - for NVDA peg is more reasonable number for example. I have not done deep dive obviously, but I can suggest you a book that helped me form my view on such companies if you wish. It is well worth it I promise 🙂

[@Nanalyze]

@@kaloyanstefanov2388 We're all set on resources at the moment. Around here we keep things extremely simple. Our simple valuation ratio is covered here: www.nanalyze.com/2021/06/simple-valuation-ratio-tech-stocks/ Our video on valuing NVIDIA can be seen here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/hqe5nIycjK6ApsU

[@dangerbuoy]

Geographic conflict being solved via un”crewed” drone warfare on pay-per-view is quite the vision. I can’t tell if it’s dystopian or utopian. Either way Joe, soccer sucks.

[@Nanalyze]

Okay hear me out here. Footy is boring sometimes, make no mistake. However. The World Cup is a different animal provided you aren't watching it in the United States. In other countries there is a massive hoopla around the games, especially when you get to finals. Some anthropologists have pointed out how the World Cup provides a venue for countries to take out their frustrations and boy is this ever evident when you see some of the rivalries. When Spain played Netherlands in the final (2010) I flew to Valencia to watch the match. Let me tell you, when Spain won that city partied harder than you can imagine. Truly some great experiences to be had! :) Joe P.

[@stefanot502]

Investing in defense stocks is at the very least controversial. You earn when there are more conflicts. I pass.

[@Nanalyze]

You are right. Wonder what the ESG people think about this stuff? Shouldn't war and killing be the absolutely worst thing a company could support? Or is that all dwarfed by the importance of looking at company photos, counting the people with olive eyes, then classifying them as "Asians" despite the fact that 60% of the people on this planet are Asians. ESG has always been a joke, no matter how hard firms like MSCI want it to not be. From CNBC: "In recent months, however, ESG fund managers appear to have become increasingly comfortable with holding defense companies - at a time of soaring industry profits and higher defense spending, as governments respond to elevated geopolitical risk." Of course.

[@HTx78]

did you invest in PLTR.?

[@stefanot502]

@HTx78 No. Major contracts for military / government

[@stefanot502]

@@HTx78 I also do not invest in hyped companies at unreasonable prices...

[@Jimmy-m3x]

You might be interested in comments on generative AI made by Snowflake's CFO Mike Scarpelli during an interview at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference last Thursday. Seeking Alpha has the transcript. The headline quote is probably, "I'm not going to buy any more GPUs until I see the revenue to support it", but there are some other good nuggets in the conversation.

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you for the info! We covered that topic in great detail here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/eXybpmOtrtmde7M

[@Jimmy-m3x]

@@Nanalyze Yeah I definitely thought of that video when I read Mike's comments.

[@maltlickytexas]

❤

[@Nanalyze]

We love you too!

[@leweezo33]

I don't hte Kathie Woods, I am sure she fully believes what she says that does not mean I should. I hate that I did

[@Nanalyze]

People are often shocked when they learn - sometimes the hard way - that 95% of active managers can't beat a benchmark over time. Shouldn't be a big surprise, though the jury is still out for ARK Invest. This is why strategies like the Bogle 3 Fund approach are so popular. Covered here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/Z328g2aeeZ2JfKM

[@wizzyno1566]

Why would you try learn anything from the leader of the worlds largest cash incinerator? Im always stunned that anyone still listen to a word she says.

[@Nanalyze]

Why would we try to learn anything from the world's most successful thematic manager with a vast amount of resources? I don't know Johnny. Probably because we like to spend most our time learning, not pulling armchair quarterback takes on someone's investment performance when we all know fully well just how tough it is to beat the market. Joe P.

[@Nanalyze]

ARK's performance is covered here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/h3SqiGd-hLCkp5o

[@sillyschmeyi]

@@Nanalyze How do you define success..? Better than James Anderson at Scottish Mortgage?

[@Nanalyze]

@@sillyschmeyi In this industry there's one measure of success that matters most. AUM raised.

[@Nanalyze]

@@sillyschmeyi And we happen to really like Scottish Mortgage. Last covered here: www.nanalyze.com/2020/07/about-scottish-mortgage-investment-trust/

[@martybendick2246]

Buyout play

[@Nanalyze]

Possibly, but we don't speculate on that kind of thing.