ARMENIA | A New Strategic Direction?

In November 2023, Armenia decided to boycott the latest summit of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation, the CSTO. Coming on top of growing tensions between Yerevan and Moscow, this was seen as yet further evidence that Armenia is steadily distancing itself from Russia. This has even led to speculation that it is on the verge of a final break with Moscow and will pursue a new relationship with the West, joining NATO and the EU. So, could Armenia really be about to pursue an entirely new strategic direction?
Armenia has a long and fascinating history stretching back thousands of years. Over that time, it has frequently been caught between the major powers of the day, including Greece, Persia, Rome, Parthians, Arab Islam, Byzantium, the Seljuks, Mongols, and the Ottomans. However, in modern times, its closest relationship has been with Russia. Having come under imperial Russian rule in the nineteenth century, it then became a part of the Soviet Union. But even after the break up of the USSR, it continued to maintain a close relationship with Moscow. Until now. Following the war with Azerbaijan, which saw the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, many Armenians have blamed Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, for not stepping in to save the territory. As a result, the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has been building ties to the West. But as shown, any moves towards NATO and the EU are more complicated than they seem, and any final split with Russia is much tougher than it sounds.
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VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:47 Armenia’s Foreign Policy Problem
01:46 Background to Armenia
02:37 A History of Armenia and the Armenians
03:56 Armenia: From Imperial Russia to the USSR
05:09 Armenia after the Breakup of the Soviet Union
06:45 Armenia Grows Closer to Russia
07:45 Tensions Grow Between Armenia and Russia
08:58 Armenian-Russian Relations Breakdown
10:54 Could Armenia Join NATO?
11:54 Could Armenia Join the EU?
13:32 Will Armenia Break with Russia?
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
Government of Armenian | KZbin
/ @governmentofarmenia
EU Neighbours Fact Sheet | Armenia
euneighbourseast.eu/wp-conten...
EU vs Disnfo Armenia | EEAS Website
euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation...
Office of the High Commissioner for Diaspora Affairs
diaspora.gov.am/en
Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)
en.odkb-csto.org/
EQUIPMENT USED TO MAKE THIS VIDEO
kit.co/JamesKerLindsay
MAPS
www.themaparchive.com
DISCLAIMERS
- The contents of this video and any views expressed in it were not reviewed in advance nor determined by any outside persons or organisation.
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#Armenia #Russia #NATO #EU

[@JamesKerLindsay]

This video draws on my latest trip to Armenia a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to take my camera this time. But it was a fascinating visit, as always. It is a country that is gloomy and fearful. But also one that feels trapped. So, do you think Armenia can or should try to break free from Russia and pursue ties to the West? Or is it just too risky, as people believe? As always, I look forward to your comments below.

[@FlamingBasketballClub]

For real though. Can you honestly do a video on the intersectionality of medical freedoms and human rights? Stop ignoring the topic mate.

[@hybridarmyoffreeworld]

Moscow ulus lost Ukr war and the the south Caucasus is just beginning . "Let us begin with this evident fact: Muscovy does not belong at all to Europe, but to Asia. It follows that judging Muscovy and the Muscovites by our European standards is a mistake to be avoided."-gonzague de reynold, 19501 In methodological terms, one should de-Europeanise any analysis of Muscovy policy.- thomas gomart, 20062 "

[@hybridforcesofthegdl3313]

Moscow empire´s war record :- 1856 defeated by Britain and France 1905 defeated by Japan 1917 defeated by Germany 1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states 1939 defeated by Finland 1969 defeated by China 1989 defeated by Afghanistan 1989 defeated in the Cold War. 1996 defeated by Chechnya 2022 defeated by Ukraine WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :- a) Hungary 1956 b) Czechoslovakia 1968 c) Moldova 1992 d) Georgia 2008

[@FairyCRat]

As a European, I think they would be welcomed in the EU, especially if they join with Georgia, as the two would be less isolated by having each other. They just need to be willing to carry on their process of democratization. NATO is definitely out of the question though, considering how much of a pain Turkey already was when it came to Finland and Sweden.

[@hybridforcesofthegdl3313]

@@FlamingBasketballClub BBC: "What was your rank, soldier?" Average Wagner SS-NKVD conscript: "I think the judge called it First Degree Murder, Armed Robbery and Sexual Assault ...and the medic told me that I am HIV and TBC positive. That's why I got this job: I passed all the tests."

[@Cam-ye5qg]

I don’t know if you could find a nation with a more tragic history than Armenia. The fact they are still alive speaks to their resilience and ingenuity.

[@Houthiandtheblowfish]

palast ine

[@patrasekerak-mg5ww]

i think Palestine is more tragic than Armenia

[@RandomYTStuff]

Takes a lot of resilience to occupy foreign territory for 3 decades, ethnically cleanse ~900K Azeris, lose a war (twice) as an occupier, then - due to Pashinyan's decisions - opt for a tragedy (abandon all Armenian presence in N.Karabakh) rather than a military loss, then play the victim...it's a complex and a nihilistic political strategy.

[@PanZerV]

@@RandomYTStuff azeri man

[@RandomYTStuff]

@@PanZerV Greek actually, that's why I understand Armenian political pathology.

[@greatwolf5372]

Armenia probably has the worst geographical position in the world and the Armenian people have been one of the most persecuted throughout history. Kudos to Armenians for still surviving and keeping their culture. Most other peoples's would have given up. I believe all this perseverence won't be in vain and your golden age will come one day in the future! Till then God bless!

[@occamraiser]

Surely Irish interminable claims of persecution by the British means they are the most persecuted people in the world. They certainly are if any I've met are to be believed. Between Irish people being murdered by (mainly) Irish people during the English civil war - to the British biological warfare of the Potato blight where Irishmen exported animal feed and British people sent wheat to Ireland, they must be the most unfortunate of peoples.

[@biglebowsky6586]

​@@yarasa2109Of course they arent but honestly they are much better than Turks and Azeris.

[@sakogekchyan7366]

@@yarasa2109 He didn't say we were innocent genius. He said we have faced much persecution throughout our history, which is a historical fact. Being victims does not mean you yourself have not been a victimizer. No honest person would ever say Armenians are totally innocent. At times we have been innocent and other times we have been guilty. Same for your people.

[@davidyan7354]

​@@yarasa2109 Azeri fake narratives, shame on you!

[@sunnya4310]

@@yarasa2109 Compare the difference in scale between a massacre to a genocide.

[@gmuzo]

As an Armenian from Armenia I can say we are extremely unhappy and feel very much let down with the way Russia has reacted to the security issues Armenia faced in the last 3 years, we always thought Russia will be there in our hour of need but she did not - so for me as an Armenian the business with traitor Russia is over, for good.

[@ScoutBallin]

God always loves Armenia. When Armenia is upset with Israel selling weapons to Turkey, Azerbaijan, shouldn't Israel and Palestine go to war. Armenia is still weak, so it is not suitable to fight. Armenia needs the West, but don't insult Russia. Speak well to Russians as Christians. Because the Russian economy is not strong, it has not yet developed.

[@IRosamelia]

As a colombiana from Colombia, I believe it's high time Armenia turns to the West. Cheers! 💕

[@MarkKGB]

Well good luck whit your " Freedom and independence" How can Russia protect Nagorniy Karabakh, if Armenia didn't recognise it as part of Armenia? You guys have Iran, and hostile Azerbaijan not to mention Turkey close to you. You are a land locked country, who will help you? The French the Americans the Germans?

[@artak4890]

@@randomguy4116 who even are you? Europe cares for Armenia and is doing the best they can for Armenia to safely turn away from Russia. Stay pressed in azzerbaijan or ruzzia

[@leme5639]

@@randomguy4116 Europa and EU cares about Armenia. Russia is zero, and Armenia is an example.

[@Unfiltered-gb8vh]

I decided to research the history of Armenia after I saw the movie “The Promise “. I was saddened by the events of the film of love, a promise, loyalty and friendship. At the end is a brief extract of historical events. However the Genocide was real… Thank you for this brief history on Armenia. We oftentimes give little value or thought to Peace, Freedom and Human Rights until we read about the atrocities suffered by other countries.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you.

[@engindnzaid]

Yea.. the propaganda machine produce reality for simpletons.... So, according to many cartoons and films etc.. genocide is real. Eventhough historical data say different things about Ermenian case.

[@lisaisabella182]

THAT IS TRUE!

[@zaferzaferoglu978]

@@JamesKerLindsayYanlız Osmanlı Arşivlerinde Toplam Ermeni Nüfusu Bir Milyon ucyuz bin Nasıl oluyorda Bir buçuk milyon Ermeni oluyor Ayrıca Zorunlu göç olmuştur Olaylarda Yuzbinlerce Müslüman Tür k ölmüştür Ermeniler Müslüman Türklere Ruslara ve İngiliz ve Fransız Lara güvenerek katliamlar yapmışlardır Sizin ulkenizde Köyler Kasabalar Şehirler yakilsa siz ne yapardınız Müslüman Türkler Kendi Meşru müdafaa hakkını kullanmıştır ve Ermenileri Zorunlu göçe tabi tutmuşturlardir

[@ugurboyac1114]

SOYKIRIM DEDİĞİNİZ ŞEY BİR ERMENİ YALANIDIR. SOYKIRIM YAPILDI DEDİĞİNİZ TOPRAKLARDA ŞU ANDA BİNLERCE ERMENİ HUZUR İÇİNDE YAŞIYOR. ERMENİSTANDA, TÜRKİYEYE ÇALIŞMAYA GELEN BİR ÇOK ERMENİ DOSTUMUZ VAR. ERMENİSTANA EN BÜYÜK KÖTÜLÜĞÜ YAPAN, AMERİKADAKİ VE FRANSADAKİ ERMENİ DİYASPORASIDIR. O SEYRETTİĞİNİZ UYDURMA FİLİMLER, DİYASPORANIN YALANIDIR. DOĞRU BİLGİLERİ, RUSYANIN ARŞİVLERİNDEN ÖĞRENEBİLİRSİNİZ. 🇹🇷🇹🇷🇹🇷🇹🇷

[@billlawson5571]

I had the distinct pleasure to befriend my Armenian upholsterer in Ft Lauderdale he made a Rolls Royce interior better than original, his tales left a permanent mark on me, his family and he were the salt of the earth and America was much improved by their presence, it makes a good argument for the acceptance of ,refugees,hard working, smart, trustworthy, traits the world needs!

[@EdMcF1]

There is a wonderful Armenian institute in the Dorsoduro in Venice, it has Armenian script over the entrance. It is open at the Biennales. There is also an Armenian monastery island in the lagoon.

[@skp8748]

So?

[@DemPilafian]

@@skp8748 Venice is in a European country that is a member of both the EU and NATO. We are talking geopolitics here, and soft power and cultural relations are very much on topic.

[@skp8748]

@@DemPilafian so Morocco has a greater cultural, economic, historical and even modern shared security in Europe not mention shares border with the eu... are they about to take office in Brussels and join nato ?

[@DemPilafian]

@@skp8748 This is a video about Armenia. I think Prof James Ker-Lindsay did a video on Morocco. I don't recall Armenia being mentioned in the video about Morocco. *Are you saying Morocco and Armenia should form a military alliance?* I'll contribute some money if you setup a GoFundMe page for this new military alliance.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. The links between Armenia and Europe are fascinating. I really didn’t even begin to scratch the surface. Byzantium itself would need an entire video (and I’m not really a history channel). Not only were many of the Enperors Armenian, but there was an Armenian kingdom in the south of the Anatolian peninsula. I can imagine that influence also extended over to Venice.

[@ReducedEvasiveDetach]

As an armenian who studied all the introductory information you've provided.. have to say im amazed of your accuracy. this is a very well put video together that takes the neutral stance yet talks about the historical accuracy by answering the "why". On that note.. we're so screwed now xD I doubt NATO will have any influence over to stop the conflict between the Azeris

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. It was quite a task trying to piece all that history together, and then condense it down. Armenians truly have one of the most complex and extraordinary histories of any nation on this planet. It has been a remarkable tale of national survival against all the odds. And I also worry about what comes next. People in Armenia are very fearful that Azerbaijan will launch a new attack.

[@ashog1426]

You are one of the armenians who votes for and support Nikol Pashin aren't you??? God be with you guys..the booms incoming

[@ansonang7810]

Armenia making Russia angry, as for now Russia the only one who can really solve Armenia territorial problems. Play wise because calling NATO will make the problem worse because Russia will then support Azerbaijan to take more territory to punish Armenia politicians but mainly the citizens will suffer. Even though you don't like your neighbor if his the only one who can help Armenia, then by all means gain their favor may be you might be mistaken or they're really jerks. UN too can help a little and China as it's closer. Fix the problem permanently with Azerbaijan to prevent future problems. If it's religion put a strong religious population near Azer that are not hostile. Not a pro but these might work. I saw whole region loss by Armenia and deeply sad for the displaced people.

[@VerGuut222]

@@JamesKerLindsay your description of the Armenian Genocide as a "forced deportation" that "many recognize" as genocide seemed suspiciously prevaricating from the historical consensus. The partial recognition is in political spheres, not academic ones. Some BP vibes there. Additionally I found the first portion of Armenian history more enlightening than your description of the Soviet period on. Anyway u do seem to appreciate the general uniqueness and significance of the Armenian position, and I thank u for covering the topic.

[@michaelfaraday8391]

@@ansonang7810they’re going to loose all the gas and oil subsidies as well as their free movement to Russia for employment. I lived in Russia for 7yrs as a student and during vacations we used to work with Armenians. Thousands of Armenians have found refuge in Russia owning huge businesses.

[@canarassavas]

I would like to learn Armenian one day. I hope I can visit this beautiful country. Thank you professor 🙏 from Turkey

[@JamesKerLindsay]

It really is an amazing and lovely country, with truly wonderful food. And the language is fascinating. I've always thought the alphabet is the most beautiful in the world. (Sorry, Georgians!) Highly recommended!

[@canarassavas]

@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks to Mesrop Mashtots, a very nice alphabet

[@user-rv6cx3rz7t]

@@canarassavas agreed. Very long tho haha

[@varuzhankarapetyan6120]

you are welcome here, kardeş!

[@steve_sf49]

@@JamesKerLindsay fun fact: Mesrop Mashtots also invented the Georgian Alphabet. He was a brilliant man and an Armenian icon.

[@judd442009]

If Nikol Pashinyan is wise, he will stay far away out of any high-rise buildings and make sure he has a reliable food taster.

[@jackthorton10]

What’s wrong with a high window 🪟, don’t you want to “enjoy the view “? :) The Ruskkie’s thought so, I’m kidding of course, still that is a very serious concern

[@meowclaws4690]

As an Armenian teenager who wants to know more about geopolitics, I agree with everything you say as well as I am thankful for you making an informative video to further educate people about this topic ❤

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much for the very kind comment. I really appreciate it. I sincerely hope that Armenia finds a way forward and can get behind its current problems. It really is a wonderful country!

[@spencerc706]

Hi @meowclaws4690! This is a bit unrelated to your comment, but I am moving to Armenia for 2 years starting in March and I am wondering if most students your age speak English as well as you? I am trying to learn Armenian, but it would be great if the students I will be working with have a baseline of English. Thank you!

[@HopefulInterventions]

@@JamesKerLindsayThank you ❤

[@HopefulInterventions]

@@rhutwijtulankar1326Unfortunately, Russia has abandoned Armenia though! 😢

[@ericsson5232]

Thank you for this interesting video. Earlier Pashinyan said that Armenia doesn’t want to join these meetings since the CSTO does not clearly recognize Armenia’s borders and therefore legitimizes the Azerbaijani advances into Armenian territory. They already started diversifying their security alliances (getting arms from France for example). As much as i would love to see Armenia joining the West, I agree with u that it is difficult for now even though Pashinyan seems very commited. Can I suggest u make a video about Flanders? I am Flemish myself and recently the nationalism here has grown and the polls show that the far-right nationalistic party Vlaams Belang (that has been fighting for an independed Flanders) is the most likely to win the national elections last year. Ofcourse gaining independence is almost impossible but greater autonomy (making Belgium a confederacy) is a possibilty.

[@ericsson5232]

*the most likely to win the national elections next year

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. Great points about Armenia and the CSTO. And thanks for the excellent suggestion about Flanders. This has in fact been on my to-do list since I started the channel. I must get round to it! :-)

[@amaximoff4559]

Bat Armenia itself dont recognize officially Nagornii Korabakh territory as its own territory, and dont even declared a war when Azerbaijan began attacking :) why Russia should die for Armenians when they dont even recognize this territory themself

[@vardzelyan]

@@amaximoff4559 it's not about Nagorno Karabakh that Armenia is not happy with CSTO, but Armenia proper, where since 2021 Azerbaijan occupies quite a few territories. Once that happened Armenia asked CSTO for support few times, but CSTO responded with "the border is not demarked therefore there was no attack on Armenia". before 2021 Arm still relied on Rus and CSTO for security.

[@njdehasisian936]

@@amaximoff4559 It is not about Armenia or Azerbaijan; it is about Russia’s responsibilities based on the 2020 ceasefire declaration. Russia had a duty to keep the corridor open and uninterrupted and, second, maintain the status quo for final negotiations on the ground while not letting Azaris harass the Armenian population of the region. Russia betrayed Armenia and Karabakh, and it will pay a hefty price for it. From now on, no other country would trust Russia to have strategic relations. Russia lost its weapon myth in Ukraine and lost its credibility as a functional ally in Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh mountains. Good luck with Russia in this new world that we are witnessing is firming every damn day.

[@omurcinarelci5148]

Exceptional analyses. Thank you.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.

[@skeetrix5577]

thank you for another informative video, professor! have a great weekend:)

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. You too! :-)

[@gamingwitholma6053]

Thank you for the very informative video.

[@Mourad1m]

Thank You Prof ! The fact is - Russia has betrayed Armenia! In reality Turkey was actively helping Azerbaijan, not only by supplying arms but also military personal. Pakistan and Israel also helped Azerbaijan. Partucularly Israel!

[@Trolligi]

I’ve never really understood why Israel supports Azerbaijan. Is it because they want good relations with Turkey?

[@muratduman3319]

no, they support Azerbaijan against Iran. 30% of Iran is of Azeri (Turkish) descent@@Trolligi

[@skp8748]

Betrayed how

[@thegame7557]

​@@Trolligiit's because of Iran. Israel also buys a lot of oil from Azerbaijan

[@Tamara-nn1wr]

No, Armenia has betrayed both Russia and Iran. Russia has been protecting 3 million Armenia's border against 85 million Turkey. Iran has also been protecting Synik border for years. Pashinyan was running them to join EU their enemy. Armenia, and diaspora Armenians want to have their cake and eat it too. Betray Russia and expect them to help you when you are in trouble. Did EU come to help them?

[@user-cz6ry7kv4e]

If you, as the leader of a transnational security organization, do not step in to ease tension between two of your CSTO members, don’t act surprised when one of them started to increasingly dislike you

[@KKT1299DMN]

Azerbaijan isn't even part of the CSTO. Their incursion into Armenian territory in September 2022 should have triggered the CSTO equivalent of NATO's Article 5, but Russia and the organization as a whole decided not to act on it. They have completely voided the legitimacy of their own security treaty, because it clearly doesn't provide security from external threats.

[@ThatGuy-ne8py]

Azerbaijan isn't a member of the CSTO

[@8g8819]

Which two members? Only Armenia is part of the CSTO and historical Russian ally

[@JinQb]

Maybe you’re thinking of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan which are two CSTO members that fought each other recently and Russia did nothing to intervene. In this case, Azerbaijan is not a member while Armenia is and Russia did not really intervene or protect Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh or even in Armenia proper.

[@ArmenianBishop]

@@8g8819 LOL ... A country doesn't have to be a CSTO Ally, to be in alliance with Russia. Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey have their own peculiar trilateral alliance.

[@joanofarc6402]

An Armenia women in Nagorno Karabhak said in an interview that Russian helicopters would fly in and drop food/water for the Russian peacekeeper force and nothing for Armenians during the blockade of roads.

[@ehismichael6917]

Why can't Armenian helicopters fly food and water to Armenia people?

[@armenpoghosyan4998]

@@ehismichael6917 because it would be considered an act of war and azerbaijan would attack armenia proper

[@ehismichael6917]

@@armenpoghosyan4998 Then they should find means of supplying food and water to their citizens that won't be regarded as an act of war.

[@steve_sf49]

@@ehismichael6917dude how do you expect Armenian helicopters to fly over Azerie airspace? Are you trolling? Armenians were in blockage for 10 months by Azerie soliders. No food, no medicine, nothing allowed.

[@ehismichael6917]

@@steve_sf49 They should find means of supplying their citizens food. After all a humanitarian cease fire was done in Gaza Israel war. When there is a will, there is a way

[@prof.puggle1631]

Thanks a ton for the vid!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. It was so interesting to put together, especially after my latest trip to Yerevan.

[@ArthurManukyan-pk5uo]

I really appreciate for this amazing video. thank you very much

[@adisura9904]

India has also recently started providing the Armenians with Arms like the Pinaka Rocket, SPG systems and more are in the talks. I hope these help them defend their peppe against tge Azeri forces

[@privacyhelp]

LOL providing, they are not free

[@adisura9904]

@@privacyhelp I mean still a word for access?? Never said it was an aid or a gift so should have been apparent.

[@haykk5375]

@@adisura9904 exactly, especially since Armenia's former "ally" refuses to even return the payment let alone ship the weapons. Armenia appreciates India's help and happy to pay for their own weapons as long as they are a reliable supplier (which they indeed are).

[@koba0798]

cow poo powered rockets.

[@rohans1174]

@@koba0798 CRY HARD 😭

[@Francisco-oc3ld]

Great! We're waiting for you guys!🇪🇺

[@karenmikayelyan5066]

Thank you for the video

[@aeliusmaximusdecimusmeridius21]

Amazing video as always, doc

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much!

[@hybridarmyofthegdl2193]

«…Браты мае, мужыкі родныя. З-пад шыбеніцы маскоўскай прыходзіць мне да вас пісаці, і, можа, раз астатні. Горка пакінуць зямельку родную і цябе, дарагі мой народзе. Грудзі застогнуць, забаліць сэрца, - но не жаль згінуць за тваю праўду… Няма ш, браткі, большага шчасця на гэтым свеце, як калі чалавек у галаве мае розум і науку… Но як дзень з ноччу не ходзіць разам, так не ідзе разам наука праўдзіва з няволяй маскоўскай. Дапокуль яна ў нас будзе, у нас нічога не будзе, не будзе праўды, багацтва і ніякай наукі, - адно намі, як скацінай, варочаць будуць не для дабра, но на пагібель нашу… Бо я табе з-пад шыбеніцы кажу, Народзе, што тагды толькі зажывеш шчасліва, калі над табою Маскаля ўжэ не будзе. Твой слуга Яська-гаспадар з-пад Вільні»

[@manoughagopian5748]

Great analysis!!!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. It was fascinating, if a little depressing, to be back in Armenia recently. (But I do love to be in Yerevan.)

[@timotheusvanesch3959]

Thank you.

[@brianfoley4328]

Brilliant analysis

[@balabani]

Dear professor Kir-Lindsey, you have captured the situation very well. I am a diaspora Armenian, a descendant of survivors. By necessity Armenians have kept close ties with Russia and Iran, but at the same time they see themselves as having close cultural ties with Europe. So this duality exists within every Armenian. Therefore Armenia is trying to get both ties to coexist. The problem is the rivalry between the West and Russia that is creating suspicion. Remember within the OSCE France, the US and Russia were working jointly and they were mostly in accord then the split happened with the Ukraine war. Now there are parallel tracks with neither able to achieve closure. Armenia is naturally inclined to push for peace while at the same time seek military power parity. They will go with whichever side can satisfy its needs. At the moment there is progress with the EU and absence of progress from Russia.Armenia’s hope is that the West will exert some pressure on both Turkey and Azerbaijan while Russia right now sees them as allies. Historically Russia has let down Armenia by giving land to Turkey and Azerbaijan under the Soviet Union. Armenians remember that too. The only saving grace right now is the shift in Georgia by letting transport of French arms to Armenia. It is not inconceivable that both Georgia and Armenia be tied to the EU. The problem in that case is if the EU will still be around.

[@artman12]

That’s pretty similar to the situations that some other countries like India and Serbia are in- a balancing act between the historical ally of Russia and the new, future allies of US and EU.

[@fatihersayn7877]

Your geography is your destiny. Georgia is not powerful enough to join EU/Nato and anger Russia. Even Turkiye, Azerbaijan and Iran will not react nicely. It must be a neutral country and it will be a neutral country. You Armenians should not push your luck or if Russians withdrawn from their military bases, it will be an invitation to a feast for the Turks.

[@balabani]

@@fatihersayn7877 geography is destiny and fear is the worst enemy. “Will be an invitation to a feast for Turks.”😱

[@fatihersayn7877]

@@balabani Thats the sad reality. Armenians brought themselves to this situation.

[@balabani]

@@fatihersayn7877 Yes that is the mentality of an uncivilized person who thinks the victims are perpetrators and relies on might is right. Refuses to move to the 21st century and dreams to return to past glory. Also must be reminded of his origin..

[@hybridforcesofthegdl3313]

Багдан Хмяльніцкі, тыпу таго, падпісаў некалі "глыбокую" інтэграцыю з ардой ... Украінскія гісторыкі кажуць, што Хмяльніцкі нічога не падпісваў, і ўсё гэта хлусня! І папер ніякіх не было і няма! А маскоўцы кажуцуь, што Хмяльніцкі -- падпісваў, але паперы не захаваліся бо моль іх паела. А ў выніку што? Украіна-Русь на доўгія стагоддзі патрапіла пад маскоўскі бот. Маскоўская арда скрала назву Украіны -- Русь, усю яе гісторыю, міталёгію, культуру і выдае яе за сваю. Узяць бы таго князя Уладзіміра, які, нібыта, хрысціў маскавітаў, яшчэ і помнікі яму нахабна ставяць. А далей і згадваць не хочацца.... Рэвалюцыя, Грамадзянская вайна, Галадамор, рэпрэсіі, генацыд... І нaрэшце вайна на Дамбасе, анексія Крыма, вайна, вайна .

[@Wordy-jt9uw]

Украина-Русь?

[@hybridforcesofthegdl3313]

@@Wordy-jt9uw YES

[@1ico007]

Excellent insight analysis of historical and contemporary events that shaped the current geopolitical shifts of Armenian.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much!

[@davidnikon8501]

Turning its back on Russia could be disastrous for Armenia due to historical, economic, and geopolitical factors. Russia has been a key ally, providing security through the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Economically, Armenia benefits from trade and remittances from Russian-Armenian communities. Additionally, given regional complexities, aligning with Russia provides a counterbalance to potential pressures from neighboring countries.

[@cauaqueirozpaes7105]

Security? Just look at the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Doesn't seem like they give a shit about Armenia.

[@jovicatrpcevski209]

​@@xunqianbaidu6917Took the words right out of my mouth - "Has been" : a 'Has been' in more ways than one.

[@emhyr945]

@@cauaqueirozpaes7105Nagornyi-karabax was not recognized country (de facto puppet of Armenia) when it all begins in 2022 CSTO try to move troops not to fight but stop advance from Azerbaïdjan in Armenian recognized regions. But this proposal was refused by Pashinyan and now Armenians think that Russia betray them bc Russians don’t wanna war on some bs mountains

[@realtalk6195]

@@cauaqueirozpaes7105 The CSTO has never been under any obligation to intervene in N-K and surrounding occupied areas which everyone recognized as being Azerbaijan. Russia backed Armenian separatism there for decades already but when the separatists were overwhelmed, Russia wasn't going to start new wars with multiple states when it's already at war with others.

[@cdhblackwell]

There remains 2 Azeri enclaves in Armenia and 1 Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan. While all small, these could be the next issues of conflict.

[@solsunman383]

I believe these are already occupied by the other state. A more likely area of conflict is that many parts of Armenia within it's internationally recognised borders are occupied by Azerbaijan. This is the real reason Armenia is looking for an alternative to the CSTO - Azerbaijan invaded and occupied Armenian sovereign soil and is actively killing civilians inside these occupied areas; and when Armenia called the CSTO to respond to an attack on Armenia proper, the CSTO and the Russians both separately refused (technically violated the mutual defence part of the CSTOs charter). As of right now, these border areas are still occupied by Azerbaijan and, rather than showing signs of withdrawing to the international border, Azeri forces are actually engaging in a creeping occupation, steadily encroaching upon strategic areas within Armenia (such as high ground, water sources etc.) and is constructing fortifications. Within Azerbaijan, there is currently an increasingly vocal minority talking about taking the next step - seizing Southern Armenia (Syunik) and expelling or exterminating the native population from these "historical Azeri lands". If that sounds a bit extreme, bare in mind that it is not uncommon for Azeri politicians to liken Armenians to animals and sub-human. There's a real risk that things could go sideways in a really bad way in this part of the world if cooler heads don't eventually prevail.

[@AVV_Beats]

A simple swap of these enclaves would be the most logical resolution - India and Bangladesh did swaps on a much larger scale recently. But naturally, the Azerbaijanis, in their current position of superiority, would not agree to that.

[@peterkops6431]

Thanks as always Prof. 👍🏻🇦🇺

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much Peter. Always appreciated. Have a great weekend.

[@hassandehkhodaeidehaghi3732]

Good, educational. 🌿

[@sergiola310]

LONG LIVE ARMENIA. U R THE JEWEL OF THE WORLD. ❤️🇦🇲🇦🇲

[@ele114]

The best role for Armenia is that of Austria during the cold war. It could contribute to reconciliation between West and East and also become attractive for neighbors to knock on its door from time to time (touristic goals only)

[@cauwenberghsroeland8607]

Better : Switzerland....

[@Viktor-bb]

Пашинян у не нужен одкб

[@ShivamSingh-yu5tt]

As usual great analysis and video prof. Hope to visit Armenia one day!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you. It is really worth a visit. It is a beautiful and welcoming country.

[@quartercast]

I think one crucial turning point was that Pashinyan shifted Armenia's position, and officially accepted that Karabagh was Azerbaijani territory. After that, the justification for Russian peacekeepers to maintain control in the remaining Armenian section of Karabagh ok behalf of Armenia became untenable. Unfortunately, it seems Pashinyan only has himself to blame. He also did not back up the Karabagh Armenians militarily... how could he expect the Russians to keep stepping in on his behalf? These are just my observations as an outsider to this conflict.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. But I would perhaps disagree. I can see your point. However, I’d argue that the decision to accept Azerbaijan’s sovereignty in fact made the peacekeepers even more relevant, if not essential. There was no longer any reason for Azerbaijan to force its sovereignty over the Armenians in NK. One could argue that Russia had an even greater responsibility to ensure that their place in Azerbaijan was protected. Also, one could argue that Pashinyan saved Armenia from catastrophe by not using force to back up NK. Azerbaijan is now far stronger and would almost certainly have used a full scale war to seize Armenian territory, perhaps cutting off the south.

[@qwertyasdfgh1014]

False, after the 2020 war, the Armenians lost Artsakh, the territory that remained was not sustainable and it was only a matter of when the Azeris would attack. The Russians did nothing for 9 months to open the Lacin corridor.

[@quartercast]

@qwertyasdfgh1014 That is an interesting point. In my opinion, it's not the place of a peacekeepers to force open the borders between two sovereign nations. But I recall that in the 2020 agreement it was the role of the Russian peacekeepers to maintain this corridor, so I see your point. If they had forced Lachin open, would it have been their obligation to force open a corridor to Nakhchivan as well?

[@qwertyasdfgh1014]

@@quartercast False, it is not a border crossing, but a corridor that Russia is committed to keeping open. He connected Armenia and what remained of NK, Russia took that obligation upon itself and did not fulfill it. Well, Armenia does not recognize NK and is not a participant in the conflict, Russia clearly sold the Armenians, their territory and all that, thinking that the Armenians will remain their ally, but they made a mistake in their steps. Russia took upon itself an obligation that it deliberately did not fulfill, but was an active participant in the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from NK because it helped Azerbaijan to solve that issue without having to "get their hands dirty". Russia expelled the Armenians from NK alone.

[@quartercast]

@JamesKerLindsay Thanks Prof, for always responding to my comments! I get your point of view. To go one step further, perhaps the Russians perhaps had some obligation to demillitarise the Karabagh region and protect the Karabagh Armenians, while letting the Azeris back into their territory. I'm not sure such a thing could have been achieved, given the bloody history between the two parties.

[@paqanini]

Another point that makes it extremely hard for Armenia to break from Russia is that armenian economy is heavily owned by russian companies. Also, the main market for armenian goods is the russian market. Any time tensions rise between these two countries, russian customs find some bug in armenian apricots and make the trucks wait at the door for days/weeks/months, just a simple example. It is hard for Armenia to replace Russia not only as political, but mainly as an economic ally.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks you so much. Excellent point. You are absolutely right. I should have also made the extensive economic ties a bit clearer.

[@haykk5375]

While ~22% of Armenian exports go to Russia, most of these are desperately needed as Russia is heavily sanctioned. Russia is unlikely to fully block these, but even if they do this is manageable, especially in light of EU aid and smaller size of Armenian economy.

[@metehangokturk9696]

The future of Armenia depends on how it deals with its eastern and western neighbors ( Türkiye and Azerbaijan ). Since the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has been resolved, Armenia should refrain from any provocation and approach its two big neighbors in a peaceful and friendly manner. As we know from history, Armenians lived freely in the Ottoman Empire, they had their language, religion, culture and did not have to serve in the Ottoman army. They were craftsmen, merchants, artists, etc. Many of them were also active in the Ottoman state. And still today about 100,000 Armenian guest workers live and work in Türkiye, sending part of their salaries to Armenia every month. Although Turkey has introduced ambargo against Armenia, many Turkish products still come to Armenia. If Armenia would come closer on both sides, it would benefit a lot.

[@iraklishurgaia7690]

👍 love your videos

[@korkutuluaydin6660]

Pretty informative and unbiased analysis. Kind regards professor. Great video.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. Always appreciated!

[@hjaso6589]

Thank you Prof James Ker-Lindsay for this thorough history of my Country Blessings 🙏

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. It is a truly fascinating history, and hopefully the historical context explains so much about what is happening now.

[@marlenfras5490]

Great maps. Good reporting. Thank you. Go Democracy.

[@user-nb2rk3vu8n]

thank you very much for Armenia dear friend James Ker-Lindsay

[@ChrisTheLoneWanderer]

Armenia, land of the most beautiful Lahmacun! It's certainly positive that Armenia is diversifying its alliance portfolio. But I also do feel that given its position as a crossroads, making an enemy of Iran and Russia, countries which Armenians have cultural affinity for, may be both difficult and risky. It might be best to be as multilateral as possible. Azerbaijan has partially done this and this gave them much leverage in the conflict.

[@bneymanov]

"Lahmajun" literally means "meat with dough" in Arabic ("lahm" = "meat", "ajin" = dough), what has it to do with Armenia?

[@RandomVidsforthought]

​@@bneymanovBecause armenians make it too

[@rubenbaraxa]

Let arabians worry :) BtW, it tells 'most beutiful lahmachun', whats wrong if its arabian meel.

[@anrII2358]

Hello, as an Armenian I should say that lahmajun in an arabic dish😊 also, in Armenia they are lots of Georgian dishes that get mixed up for being Armenian. Since many other cultures get hurt for us "stealing" their food, I want to say that Armenians eat different cuisines, including ones that our historical neighbors were making. So tourists and even some locals can not really know which one is Armenian and which one isn't. Just be understanding and explain it calmly, please. Much love to everyone.

[@ismayilsuleymann]

​@@anrII2358then just don't present it as yours, give the credit. But you often forget doing that.

[@Vaughnsb2]

Russia didn't back them up, so they need to look elsewhere for protection.

[@bilic8094]

Pashinyan recognized nagorno karabakh as Azerbaijani what was Russia supposed to do in that case be a bigger Armenian than the Armenians themselves.

[@vardzelyan]

​@@bilic8094it's not about Nagorno Karabakh, but Armenia Proper

[@haykk5375]

Russia didn't just not back up but actually punished Armenia with Azeri hands. They have blocked all arms sales since and even refuse to return Armenia's advance payment of $400MM for its military shipment in this difficult time, which is a significant amount for Armenia's relatively small economy.

[@cuitlapanton]

Turkey definitely is a better option!!!

[@YourSocialistAutomaton]

​@@haykk5375what allies do you have other than Russia? Nato nor eu will never save you, cause turkey will just veto it. Iran is hated by nato and eu

[@valvlad3176]

Armenian and Russians are brothers. My best teacher was Armenian in SPb University. I fought for Armenians in 1994, I'll do it again.

[@luvuyogantsho4829]

Good analysis of political developments in Armenia. This video captures perfectly the political dilemma that Armenia faces. On one hand Armenia needs Russia (and perhaps even Iran) as a security guarantor against Turkey and Azerbaijan. While at the same time, Armenia is deeply dissatisfied with the security that Russia has provided thus far. Which Invariably begs the question: If Armenia cannot afford to leave Russia, then why is Armenia antagonizing Russia by signing up to the Rome Statue? Surely Armenia's political elite are aware of the danger they are expositing themselves to by doing that. through its recent actions Armenia runs the risk of a Russian sponsored coup for what potential benefit?

[@lehmejoun]

Russia has been acting as an enemy anyway, if you see the amount of sacrifices Armenia has done in the past 30 years to appease Russia you'd be surprised, but in the end they treated Armenia as a "it's just business" way, Russian led CSTO wouldn't come for help when Armenia got invaded in sep 2022 (not 2023), and they wouldn't even say where they recognize Armenia's borders starts and ends. They are also the main reason the country was so corrupt and under developed (the last 2 presidents were russian puppets), with the new democratically elected government, they tried several times to remove him through manipulating the people. A lot of reasons I can type, in essence, Russia is already acting like an enemy to Armenia, so Armenia is saying, it's either being a failed state forever or joining Russia as a union state, or try our chances as an independent state.

[@razahassan8755]

Armenia probably overestimated the animosity between Azerbaijan & Russia. Their relationship is not as bad as perceived. That and Russia has pragmatic relations with Turkey so that might've come into play. Also, Azerbaijan has much more to offer geopolitically than Armenia and many more resources.

[@Houthiandtheblowfish]

soros ngo open society chose a wise man pashinyian so if soros chose him then he is good guy and can bring peace where ever soros goes peace happend just look at peace in ukraine closer to eu than ever

[@haykk5375]

The fact is that EU recognizes Armenia's aspirations and has declared that any Eastern Partnership state can apply to join the EU. While many Armenians have been sceptical due to delays in Georgian application, things have changed after Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian betrayal of Armenians and most recently Georgia's candidate status. The poll you site with 54% EU support was taken before Russia's blunt betrayal in September/2022&23. As one of the only two democratic countries in the region, Armenia's only natural partner is Georgia and therefore EU.

[@RandomYTStuff]

Sure, Russia should have declared war against Azerbaijan, while Armenia's Pashinyan nihilistically declared Armenia would not intervene in any way in N.Karabakh & ARmenian leaders telling people to flee and organizing buses to Armenia. Talk about the lowest level political cynicism to feed a pre-constructed plan to break with Russia...has to sell the idea to Armenians somehow! And Armenians criticized Russian invasion of Ukraine, while themselves occupying Azeri territory for 3 decades and ethnically cleansing ~900K Azeris, mismanaging water resources etc.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks a lot. This wasn’t the sense that I picked up when I was in Yerevan a couple of weeks ago. (That’s why I made the video.) What I said here very much reflects what I heard while over there. But I certainly don’t discount that things could be changing and could shift dramatically in the period ahead. And it is worth emphasising again that there does seem to be a sizeable part of the population that does clearly favour EU membership. It will be interesting to see the next polling on this.

[@haykk5375]

@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks for making the video and sharing your views. You mention you were there a couple of weeks ago, but even within this short time things change in this dynamic geopolitical environment. I think Georgia's EU candidate status on Nov 8th followed by French arms transit through Georgia were pivotal shifts. EU is now a regional player in South Caucasus and it will be interesting to see how the sentiments evolve.

[@star-gs9kh]

​@haykk5375, stop saying nonsense. Armenia government is the one who betrayed Russia.

[@danwylie-sears1134]

Phrases like "just two years later, after almost a quarter century" can leave me wondering which year we're talking about. I backtracked to try to find two years later than what, a quarter century after what, and what years did those other things happen. As always, though, thank you for covering parts of the world that the major media mostly ignore.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Scripting is incredibly difficult, especially with historically dense material. It can easily and rapidly become a collection of dates. This can be incredibly tedious. These shorthand cues are meant to give a rough indication of the passage of time to general viewers. But I always hope that anyone really interested in a topic I cover would go off and learn more. And hopefully the video will have provided a good framework to do so.

[@shanpatrickbaker988]

Good, we want Armenia on our side, not on the side of Russia.

[@Hoheit34]

This was a great synopsis of the current situation of Armenia and its past history. I have been curious about whether this country was leaning more towards Europe since losing Artsakh to the Azeris. Thanks for the analysis.

[@realtalk6195]

The past history is full of factual errors. He conveniently left out that Armenia began in the 6th century BCE as a satrapy (province) of the Achaemenid Empire, literally called the Satrapy of Armenia. The earlier ruling dynasties of Armenia were all of Achaemenid and later Parthian descent from Iran (Hyderes, Orontid, Artaxiad, Arsacid). It's wild that he said they later "encountered" the Persians. The Armenians were always in contact with Iranians and pre-Christian Armenians worshiped Iranian deities alongside local deities. The restored Armenian kingdom he mentioned, which was founded in 885, was a vassal of the Abbasid Caliphate and its founder became local king with the full consent of the Arab Abbasids. The Bagratuni dynasty lasted until 1045 when the Byzantines conquered its capital, after which the Armenian lands became fractured between rival spheres of influence.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

@realtalk6195 And there’s always one who feels the need to show off their knowledge of the minutiae of ancient history! :-) Seriously, this was not a definitive history of Armenia. And it would be ridiculous to try to see it as such. It is about the current situation. The history was just there to illustrate a point about how the nation has always found itself caught between others. And if you look at the bit about the origins, I deliberately included a screenshot of the National Museum. Seriously, perhaps chill a little. You clearly know a lot. Be confident in that without trying to belittle others.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

@Hoheit34 Thank you very much indeed. I appreciate it. There was a huge amount to distil into a very short space. I think I managed to get the general point across.

[@realtalk6195]

@@JamesKerLindsay You don't need to elaborate all of history, but your history _contradicted_ the actual timeline of history. Big difference. Armenia began as a Persian province. Armenia's early ruling dynasties were all of Iranian origin. Armenia didn't separate itself from the Abbasids in 885 but formed a vassal kingdom. I'm not trying to belittle you, and in fact my posts are an attempt to gain some eyeballs because everyone else is obviously only watching and reading your statements on the matter. Since you mention relating the history to the current scenario, I think it's important to note how Armenia began and to acknowledge that it's either been under one foreign empire or another, or had been split into competing Armenian kingdoms under rival empires. I think most people being unable to acknowledge that is why their strategies for Armenia fall short too.

[@paradox_1729]

Armenians had no chance of taking back Nagorno Karabakh from the Azerbaijanis. The attack from the Azerbaijanis was backed by advanced weapon systems from Turkey and Armenia really couldnt do anything against the attack. If Armenia went on the offensive they would have crushed and a subsequent counter attack could have very easily toppled Armenian government or at least destabilized it fully. Russia simply didnt have the military bandwidth to help Armenia.

[@ashog1426]

While the soros stooge #nikolpashin is in charge I agree.

[@user-wt2zk3yk5n]

Sorry for the multiple comments, but I would also like to mention that the notion that Russia supported Armenia in the 90s is not true. They always sold arms to both, this was not an act of support. You can also check about the 'Ring operation' to have an idea

[@sergeytsvetanov]

😀Well, I always enjoyed alternative history.

[@DeepLineDesign]

Great Analysis! Thank you for your unbiased input!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed.

[@DostoenVnimaniay]

The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh wasn't recognized even by Armenia. Why should CSTO stand up for NKR?

[@al6114]

It was a detailed analysis but it lacked the complete coverage. Probably due to tension between US and Iran and by consequence with its followers in EU, Many analysts trying to ignore of Iran calming effect on this conflict. One un-biased or Informed analyst would have noticed that after the second attack of Baku that caused a totally collapse of Armenian Army, Azerbaijan forces, media and politicians all started to rant about fluffing dream of connecting land corridor to Nakhichevan and they were ready to finish the job expecting no much resistance. It was ONLY Iran that officially warned to Baku that it will prevent this from happening with a huge Military' force without hesitation. It even moved more of its military forces to the border so much of annoying and ranting from Aliev and Erdogan. Baku's media were keep attacking Iran, then Baku arranged a Military maneuver along with Turkey and with Israeli weapons' and probably forces or trainers and backed with large Pakistani troops near Iran border close to the corridor while Erdogan warning Iran that Baku is not alone! But Iran warned that its forces are ready and can take care of Azeri and its foreigner allies quickly with its massive drone and missile arsenal. Iran informed Moscow too that it would not allow its border to north Caucasus to be disconnected. Considering Russia need for Iran Military assistance in its war in Ukraine there were no objection on their side. This was even acknowledged and appreciated by many Armenian Politicians and commentators. lastly, for the record, the Only country that have a Consulate in southern Armenia (where that supposedly corridor passes) Is Iran, So to make a point to Baku and Turkey of seriousness of its intention. In you analysis seemed like Iran is a by stander in decision by Turkey and EU for its border with Armenia which seem kind of laughable.

[@FredoRockwell]

Great video! Do you think Iran could be a potential protector of Armenia? Iran has poor relations with Azerbaijan, and a restive Azerbaijani population in its north. I've heard Iran really doesn't want to lose its border with Armenia for this reason. Could they become a security guarantor? Obviously it would be far from ideal, but so was relying on Russia!

[@hybridarmyoffreeworld]

NATO ?

[@tiagogomes3807]

Who wants to be associated to Iran? That would guarantee no One else would support Armenia in any way.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Hi Fredo. Great question. There are certainly close links with Iran. (And to my untrained ear, Armenian does sound incredibly like Farsi, perhaps because of the large amount of loan words.) But as someone else pointed out, I suspect that Yerevan would be wary about aligning too closely with Tehran given all the baggage this would bring. Also, Iran is now so closely aligned with Moscow it probably wouldn’t add much to the current dynamic. If Russia wants to stop anything, it will. And if it doesn’t, then it seems unlikely that Tehran would fill in instead. Armenia really is in an unenviable position.

[@mulamulelilumadi4717]

​@@hybridarmyoffreeworldcan they teleport?

[@FredoRockwell]

@@JamesKerLindsay I think you're probably right, but I wouldn't call Russia and Iran allies at the moment. They share interests, but I don't think either state would stick with the other four more than a hot second once those interests shift. Fear of separatism in its north is something that I think could shift Iran's thinking. Maybe. But you're right - either way, Armenia's position is very difficult.

[@Strype13]

Poor Armenia out there just reaching its arms out to everybody hoping somebody will grab hold and tell them, "we got your back, friend." Unfortunately for them, as long as they continue allowing Russia to peddle their anti-liberal propaganda and directly influence their archaic ideologies, it's gonna be mighty difficult for them to find any long-lasting support from the West. Furthermore, if they want to take improving relations with the West seriously, playing footsie with countries like Iran probably isn't the wisest approach. Regardless, when considering the vile atrocities those people were forced to endure in the past, I certainly wish them the best of luck in the future.

[@sokopic]

reject your alies but be surprised if they ignore you when you surrender to people that want you gone

[@bibibibi7322]

Hello to all Armenians from an Romanian. Stay strong people of Armenia and allways have hope that things will be better one day.

[@adoberoots]

Excellent work, it's rare to find a video on the issue that doesn't make any critical errors, let alone one that explains the nuances of the situation well. I would just add that the hesitation/pessimism about strengthening ties with the West is fueled significantly by pure fear of Russia itself - no one is under the impression any longer that Russia can somehow be Armenia's security guarantor. Many, if not most, Armenians see Russia not only as a non-ally, but as an enemy (and as an ally of Azerbaijan and Turkey) which poses a threat to the nation's existence. I think we are likely to see the current policy of disengagement with Russian-led institutions continue, along with increased cooperation with France and the US in a discreet manner. But here's the most crucial thing, and it's what is true in Ukraine, in Belarus, in Georgia and Moldova too: none of us will ever be truly free until the Russian people are themselves free. As long as Moscow remains in the hands of despots there can be no durable peace nor development in the larger region. Joining the EU or NATO is an unrealistic dream for *all* of those nations until a real democratic revolution comes to Russia, whether we admit it or not.

[@TheSwedishHistorian]

joining the EU is impossible for Armenia unless Georgia or other border countries have already joined.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Why? Serious question. EU membership doesn’t require contiguous land borders. It may be trickier, for all sorts of reasons. However, it isn’t required. Even if Georgia joins, it won’t have a direct land border with the rest of the EU.

[@TheSwedishHistorian]

Hi James, thanks for your video. You make great content. I see what you mean and I suppose it doesnt necessarily make it impossible but almost all members have joined when they have a border with the EU, some exceptions being cyprus 2004 and greece 1981. But without a land border or sea border how would trade happen? It becomes so dependant on a third party like turkey or georgia. Schengan becomes automatically out of the picture from the start which is kindof a bad start but I guess is fine. The other thing is that usually the EU countries approve expansion because the neighbours of said country has many trade interests and ties with that country. Poland joining improves trade with Germany. Moldova joining improves trade and ties with Romania.@@JamesKerLindsay

[@Kavala76]

Armenia's geography should be a big clue on who it should befriend and who it should not annoy. It seems Pashinian has learned nothing from the experiences of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine today. I fear he is steering the good ship Armenia onto the rocks.

[@YourSocialistAutomaton]

Who can armenia ally? It cant join nato or eu cause turkey will veto it Iran is hated by nato and eu Same with china Armenia is doomed

[@tabithan2978]

Armenia is so vulnerable at this point. Tiny, surround by enemies, and NATO is far off. Not an enviable position.

[@MrMordechaiAnilevich]

Good analysis. You didn't mention Iran, who is Armenia's main helper now.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. I did refer to it at the end. Iran is certainly an important ally. But I really didn’t hear it discussed that much in Yerevan. It was more a part of the general discussion about Russia.

[@MrMordechaiAnilevich]

@@JamesKerLindsay I really enjoy your presentations. Apologies if I wasn't paying attention. Please do Myanmar next 😉

[@haykk5375]

Iran is an ally of convenience and is more or less neutral since it congratulated the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno Karabakh.

[@Houthiandtheblowfish]

@@JamesKerLindsay soros ngo open society chose a wise man pashinyian so if soros chose him then he is good guy and can bring peace where ever soros goes peace happend just look at peace in ukraine closer to eu than ever

[@TheRealBozz]

It seems Armenia, historically speaking, has always had it rough geopolitically. It's kind of amazing that they are still an independent country. I would suggest that the best and brightest get to the west asap. The States love our Armenian-Americans as far as I can tell.

[@artman12]

Shouldn’t Armenia’s natural ally be Georgia considering both have Orthodox roots who are neither Slavic nor Turkic and having faced similar history sandwiched between big powers? Making some kind of union between Georgia and Armenia could be beneficial to both. Georgia also opens up Armenia to the wider world.

[@anthonyn.7379]

If the best and brightest all move to the West, that will create a severe brain drain for Armenia as only a few of those who moved to and experienced a better quality of life in more developed countries would want to return. Yes, those who moved can provide remittances to the family back home. However, I believe that this is a short-term financial relief, as this wouldn't necessarily address the root causes that drove the skilled individuals to migrate.

[@wolfswinkel8906]

Why is it "kind of amazing they're still an independent country"? Russia does not coerce its neighbors into anything, look at the relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan and Belarus and Turkmenistan and Georgia. They're all independent with their own constitutions.

[@danielbirchfield8552]

@@wolfswinkel8906 one word - ukraine

[@wolfswinkel8906]

@@danielbirchfield8552 yes, that proves my point exactly. Russia had great relations with Ukraine when Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Yanukovych were presidents. They were still sovereign and had independent constitutions, even right now. What's your point exactly?

[@sebastianwrites]

Why the subtitles so small on KZbin videos now... we can hardly see them?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Good question. Mine come up small as well. I think it might have to be changed in user settings.

[@seneca983]

You can choose the size of the subtitles/captions. I myself use the smallest possible but occasionally it keeps reverting to the default size so I have to change it back.

[@sebastianwrites]

Right, well obviously tell us how to do so please@@seneca983?

[@sebastianwrites]

​. @seneca983 says there is a way... but not come back on this yet? I've not had this problem before@@JamesKerLindsay?

[@hybridarmyoffreeworld]

James look like I was right , you was kind of ....wrong. Today, "PM Pashinyan: Armenia fully and unequivocally defends Georgia’s territorial integrity" I FEEL A LOT OF PAIN IS COMING FROM MOSCOW EMPIRE THIS NIGHT )) the next time, buy a consultation from me , 100 $ each )))

[@steve_sf49]

Time to sign a defense pact with India. India is already selling serious weapons to Armenia. Armenia needs to sign a formal defense pact with a trust worthy country (unlike Russia) but have to somehow offer something back to that country. What I cant say since Armenia is resource poor.

[@feridmemmedov183]

Good luck to our neighbors, especially Armenia, on their way to the West. 🇦🇿🇬🇪🇦🇲

[@user-yl8bl6ss2c]

Их ждут там только в качестве еды,

[@takuhihovsepian2940]

Don’t put the ARMENIAN FLAG with our enemy AZERBAIJAN THE BARBARIC NATION

[@Mickomadain]

Another interesting video there, Armenia really does highlight the fact that the world's history and goegraphy, plus international relations are far from simple.

[@AWWvirtualschool]

Today's struggle [both that of Ukraine, Armenia, Moldova, ...] is for freedom, right of self-determination and national dignity! Unfortunately some dictators are not able to understand this and respect other's rights at all (even human lives don't matter). Unfortunately small countries are impacted drastically in the cofrontation/proxy wars of superpowers and in the end superpowers are left unaffected while small countries that would like just to be neutral and in good relations with neighbours, live in peace side by side are destroyed in stupid disasteous wars.

[@baddudecornpop7328]

Sucks for Armenia, they're in a rough spot rn. Just a Real Politik take on their situation: *_Don't_* align too closely or make yourself beholden to America. They way our government treats allies terrible. Our government uses them. Once any geopolitical goals are reached, the government just dips out and leaves the pawn hanging. It's shameful. But don't be lime the South Vietnamese, Afghan gov, Taliban, and coming soon; ukraine.

[@AVV_Beats]

Dude, Armenia has almost always been in a rough spot. Imagine what it was like in 1918, when a huge chunk of their population had been killed or expelled in Turkish territory, Turks had just invaded the Caucasus, and the rest of the world was too busy dealing with the aftermath of World War I to notice or care. Back then Armenia was effectively one battle away (the battle of Sardarapat) from ceasing to exist. Going further back, how Armenians even survived Persian, Arab and Mongol rule is insane. I'm quite sure Armenia has learned its lesson about putting all its eggs in one basket - it's a stupid way of running a country. There's no such thing as alliances, only converging geopolitical interests.

[@baddudecornpop7328]

@@AVV_Beats Fair points, man. Maybe there is no good decision for them. However, buddying up to the US government is surredly a bad one. Kissinger even said it: "To be America's enemy is dangerous. To be America's ally is fatal". I hope the best for Armenia. But this is gonna be reflected on as one hell of a mistake by them. They've survived mighty empires in the past. But now it's the empire that currently dismantling and destroying the entire western world. Only God can save them. But the US hegemon doesn't allow God.

[@mojewjewjew4420]

​@@baddudecornpop7328its refreshing to see a self aware american, believe men when I say that america wouldnt find itslef on the backfoot in cold war 2 if it werent for its own actions.

[@fridom4668]

Thank you

[@oltihajdaraj8682]

Armenia seems to becoming good friends with france and even if it does not allie fully with the west they will continue with these relationships.

[@asdasdasddgdgdfgdg]

Armenia has always had close relations with France since tons of Armenians live in France. I forgot the exact numbers but something like 1.5-2% of Frances population are Armenians.

[@realtalk6195]

@@asdasdasddgdgdfgdg That number may be a stretch.

[@asdasdasddgdgdfgdg]

@@realtalk6195 According to French wiki there were 750k Armenians in France in 2015, when France had a total population of 66.5 Million = 1, 12%. I cant find the sources right now but i have also, in the past, seen estimates which were as high as 800-1000k.

[@muratyildirimoglu9536]

There are many comments claiming that the Armenians have the most tragic history. It is not correct. In the Ottoman period, the Armenians had always been held in high regards: They were statesmen, translators, ambassadors in the state organization while they had been talented craftsmen. Ottomans called Armenians "Millet-i Sadıka" (Loyal Nation). In fact, Fatih the Conquerer invited and settled many Armenian in Istanbul and established The Armenian Patriarchate in Istanbul. The troubles began in the 19th century. Like almost every nation on earth, Armenian started pursuing independence. The nationalism among Armenian was highly agitated and supported by Russia, acrhenemy of Ottoman Empire. There were many atrocities in between Armenians, Turks and Kurds culminating in 1915 massacres. There have been many atrocities and massaces till now but only the massacre of Armenians is getting all the attention thanks to relentles efforts of Armenians. Armenin children learn the hatred towards Turks before learning speaking. This hatred is poisoning their minds. Still many Armenians believe the good Turk is the dead Turk! They relentlessly try to single out Turks, to condemn Turks; not only the Turks in the past but the living ones too. The Turks are all guilty! Even the Jews do not have such claims. The result: Ongoing issues, poor people, a country not enjoying its nice geographical location.

[@keesvandenbroek331]

Classical “Caught between a rock and a hard place”. Thanks, now I understand better the genocide from long ago. Time my country also formally recognize that atrocity

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. The Armenians really do have a long and fascinating history and the tragedy is that have always been caught between others.

[@keesvandenbroek331]

@@JamesKerLindsay Unfortunately, not the only group of people subjected to and suffering from conflicts between other, larger groups of people.

[@franzdurer5026]

Armenian President is really good. One of not many politics, who prefers peace.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

I agree. A lot of people criticise Pashinyan, but I respect him a lot. He is one of the few who not only understood the terrible position that Armenia was in, but also made sure that he didn’t try to fool the people into thinking that the answer was more violence and bloodshed.

[@haykk5375]

Prime minister - Armenia is a parliamentary democracy.

[@carlosandresmojicasanabria1272]

I disagree, @@JamesKerLindsay , Pashinyan thinks Erdogan is fool, the Azery president is a Fool , and they are only waiting for the rupture pashinyan is doing with the Russians, theere never will be a rescue from any nato country, because Nato not works for members works for the USA interests, and Turkey and Azerbaiyan are more valuables to the USA and the West that Armenia. I mean, look at the map. what kind of dangerous game is playing this guy pashinyan? this guy will lead the destruction of many armenian territory in the future. it is a crhonic of an announced death, like the Book from gabriel garcia marquez.

[@3drs0s]

​@@JamesKerLindsayare you British or American? Not that there is a big difference but ok..

[@Twisted_Arms]

Hi Professor, could I please suggest that you do a video on forgotten ethnic cleansing in Medak Pocket also known as biggest Canadian battle since WW2. A youtube documentary 'Ghosts of Medak Pocket" and the book of the same name should give you some background. Thank you as always.

[@mikeagajanyan777]

Very well done! Armenian has adopted Christianity and it’s paid the ultimate price! To the rest of the Christian world this is one tiny with size, but humongous with its heart and faith. Needs to stand and support Armenian. Right about now the European countries. Especially a long, long friend France is doing some amazing assistance to Armenia.

[@greatwolf5372]

France is trying to shift European Union to be more pro-Armenian but it will take some time. Germany, Netherlands etc are deep in Turkish and Azeri pockets and those two countries only care about money, not any shared values. The Armenian diaspora in the US has been complacent for too long but work is being done to shift US foreign policy as well. Unfortunately, Armenia is small and far removed from the West, and the diaspora was quite complacent so it will take some time to shift these countries foreign policy.

[@svennielsen633]

This was very informative. Unfortunately there are a lot of unanswered questions: - why does other NATO member countries not simply make bilateral defense- and trade agreements with Armenia? France? - what are the options of co-operation with Georgia on defense and trade? - why does NATO not stop Turkey from this clearly undemocratic behavior? Why is Turkey not simply suspended from its NATO membership? - why are relations between Armenia and the US so weak? There is a huge diaspora of Armenians in the US and it is logical to compare with the Jewish lobby in the US. I hope that you could take these questions up in an additional presentation.

[@danielblake8956]

I still think Armenia should be twice as big. Many options would entail prolonged Wars; even with alliance's. Alliance's with even Muslim's,such as the Kurds who also want independence. All Armenia's allies and potential allies are a stretch away. I'm hard stretched to find their answers. Though I do have folklore & fantasies for Armenia's freedoms,these wouldn't help their reality. I think they should choose their own destiny; trade as well; in fairness with whoever they please without conflict. Though being landlocked I'm sure their neighbours cause restrictions. I don't know if Armenia has a National service, I've not checked. I believe all Armenians should do a National service. They should ,keep fit stay strong & be wise & aware. They need loyal allies outside its boarder or are organised.

[@nagasawa__2632]

it has a compulsory 2-year national service which can not be delayed or avoided (almost). the problem is money and equipment for it

[@lazgkhn]

Sure come and get it. The Armenians tried for centuries and they failed. Because of that they are a small poor nation. Maybe you should try to get along with your neighbors and not have your eyes on their lands.

[@Viajesygeopolitica]

Hello, good video as always. I'm just curious: why Hungary would oppose to Armenia's membership in NATO? (Of course Turkey we all know why) Thank you!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. In part, it would be down to Hungary’s pro-Russian position. But Hungary is also an observer at the Organisation of Turkic States. It has been steadily building its relationship with Ankara and Azerbaijan. www.turkicstates.org/en/uye-ulkeler

[@JamesKerLindsay]

I also did a video about the Organisation of Turkic States kzbin.info/www/bejne/mnKwpqNuhtehq6Msi=Rc9Atx4msSpMCds2

[@user-pu5ky4ix3v]

Thanks for the video, the history portion was correct, but your predictions and poll information regarding what percentage of people are pro Europe was very suspicious!!

[@ahmadov4444]

The most comprehensive case of excuse for Armenia was, War happened between Azerbaijan and Armenia and then concluded with the capitulation of Armenian army and then Armenian PM said Russia let us alone, they should've been involved in this war too, in order to defend a CSTO side Armenia. Each time this theme came from Armenia, Putin said Azerbaijan has never attacked to Armenian territories, period. Although the international laws required Armenian troops to leave the Karabakh region immediately, they never did, on the contrary PM of Armenia said Karabakh is Armenia, period and that's how the war started, and they lost. Azerbaijan solved his own problem with force. Afterwards Armenia had to find someone to blame and prepare a escape plan from CSTO. @JamesKerLindsay

[@Thukah_tv]

Amazing video!! Thank you for this unbiased record of Armenia.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed.

[@jontalbot1]

I visited the country a few years ago and it was blindingly obvious it is a country which naturally belongs among the western family of nations. It’s problem is not just it’s geography, history and weak position in relation to Azerbaijan but also its economy, like Georgias, is tied to Russia. I am sure that eventually they will break free, especially as Putin is hellbent on destroying Russian power. Great country to visit incidentally

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Jon, I completely agree with everything you said. I absolutely love Yerevan. It is incredibly interesting and friendly. The food is great and it feels full of culture. It’s also really investing how the different historical eras exist alongside each other. Well worth a visit!

[@ronghafary2453]

Reading through many of the comments reveals lack of in depth knowledge regarding what is happening on a global scale. I agree with the sympathizing towards Armenian. But, the problem we all face is defining the true enemy of the mankind and that definitely isn’t Russia. Look for which country has more than 800 Military bases around the globe and projects its power as desired against defenseless nations? It’s time to wake up.

[@aeye9772]

Yes, they broke free from Russia and they Lost Nagorny Karabakh. This is something.

[@Jl-lq5en]

​​@@aeye9772The delusion is high in here. Indeed people are too naive to see that once Armenia told Russia to go to hell Armenia lost its lands due to telling Russia they need no help. Also the anti Russian people refuse to blame Pashinyan who is the leader of Armenia, he himself gave up Nagarno Karabakh and he also failed to recognize Nagarno Karabakh

[@aeye9772]

@@Jl-lq5en yes, I agree.

[@carlos8040ca]

Armenia needs to diversify diplomatic relations and do business with all countries instead of depending of Russia or the West

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Yes and no. I can see the attraction of a form of non-alignment or even neutrality. But when you are squeezed between major actors, it often helps to have a major power onside. Then there’s the economic argument. EU membership could offer greater prosperity, especially if Georgia joins. This would open up access to the Black Sea and the entire EU Single Market.

[@aeye9772]

​@@JamesKerLindsaydon't fool yourself. EU can do nothing.

[@realtalk6195]

This is what they should have always done but didn't. They still won't learn. Fun fact: Azerbaijan openly declared its intent to host a US or NATO base in 1999 in order to curb Armenian and Russian backed separatism. Since that never happened, Azerbaijan always balanced its relations between the regional actors and powers.

[@subbangovender3476]

Sad day that this leader has chosen to take the path that he just did, given the economic turnaround of Russia and Eastern Countries, that would have been beneficial to the people of Armenia, again shows governments putting themselves first rather than their people, more so that this great country predominantly did business in the East, that they still have an office opened in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India since early 1300's. How the times have changed.

[@727fara]

Very informative as always. Lessons are not learnt from the wars in Georgia and Ukraine. The West is flirting with post-Soviet countries, drag into the war, finance it and when Russia goes all in, the West let them behind. This dramatic shift probably will end up with another Russian invasion, and don’t think someone is going to support Armenia. Russia is a nightmare for all post-Soviet states, but openly confronting Russia is not the best idea, as examples of Georgia and Ukraine demonstrated. We live in the world of political realism, and opposing big brother could be dangerous. Lets not forget that there is a Russian military base in Armenia and they don’t plan to leave

[@3drs0s]

Let them having the American dream.. They will wake up but it will be late again

[@haykk5375]

Armenia is not confronting Russia but the other way around. Russia is trying to punish Armenia with Azeri hands. How is Russia going to invade Armenia exactly? Last time they behaved this way they ended up losing support in Warsaw pact countries, then Baltics, then most of remaining post-soviet countries. What are the ~2000 Russian soldiers in Armenia going to do with almost no remaining equipment/supplies? Protest in front of the prime minister's office? More likely they will leave just like they did in Georgia.

[@paulstephen3257]

I think it is good that Armenia is moving westward and becoming more democratic, but they have to be careful not to end up like Georgia in 2008. Moscow may green light an invasion to create a so called zangezur corridor and then place peace keepers there.

[@haykk5375]

Moscow has already green lighted the NK takeover and attack on Armenia. Russia has already done all it could to sell out Armenia.

[@JamieHumeCreative]

Bravo Armenia! 🙏🥰

[@klmn48]

Natural, Russia didn't use a finger to help Armenia, even between that 2 countries existed a military aid treaty!

[@YourSocialistAutomaton]

Its a defense pact Armenia has been invading azerbaijan

[@hichic4390]

The current situation of Armenia is partially caused by the confusion of its leaders in not adopting a policy and approach in interactions with others. Iran considers any change in the geopolitical map of the region as its red line and clearly emphasizes on preserving the integrity of Armenia. However, how Armenia approaches depends on the decision of the Armenian leaders. Of course, the desire to join NATO and make itself a platform for NATO's presence means declaring hostility to Iran, which is not good at all. (Certainly, this idea will be repeatedly thrown by the West, just to create tension, because its realization is not possible. It is just the West's cyanide pill to Armenia) Armenians are also aware of it.

[@stuartemmanuel3735]

Armenia wants to a colony of Al Capone (US) off course Russia won't allow it

[@benfowler1134]

That probably made much more sense in the original Persian.

[@Maria-ws7gn]

👏👏👏👍👍👍🙏🙏🙏🇦🇲♥️🇦🇲

[@AshotArzumanyan]

The conclusion about reliance on Russia for any security related matter is totally incorrect. Also I find the topic of lgbt related precautions in the society excessively inflated.

[@user-ri1ti6go7s]

Armenia has a long and wonderful history. It's suffered a lot in history. I've read quite a bit on it. I'm glad Armenia survives. It should be able be Armenia safely and be welcomed by all with peace.