As India’s red hot economy set to be world no. 3, reality check on how it stacks up with China, US

#cuttheclutter #indianeconomy
There’s much celebration around the fact that India is now the 5th largest economy in the world, ahead of the likes of the UK. IMF projections see India climbing two notches higher within the decade, leaving behind Japan and Germany. But how exactly does India compare with its regional rival China, which is currently the 2nd biggest economy in the world? Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta offers some data to explain the economic strides India has made, where it stands, and just how reasonable its comparisons with the US and China are. Ep 1266 of Cut The Clutter.
Read India’s GDP gap with US, China is widening alarmingly here at: www.deccanherald.com/opinion/...
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[@shubhamsonawane3432]

Title says works no 3 !! Correction required

[@ahmedkhan-bi8lv]

Why no episode on titan submarine implosion yet?

[@debashislaha1313]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/r4itqXh8l95nmJY

[@gautamdevchakravarty8207]

When comparing GDP it's okay to compare with nominal GDP but when using per capita income we should consider GDP PPP per capita as most of the consumption is domestic only, after all a burger in US costs far higher than that in India (If just the nominal prices are seen)

[@Vshwdkshnh]

First, Uncle Gupta is taking Chinese GDP numbers at its face value. But China is world’s No 2 economy. Considering, in 1995 Japan was $5T and today its $4.8T due to real estate and now demographics crisis. China has both things hitting them at larger scale and same time. China will never cross $15T. Currently, China GDP is between $10-12T, 2nd largest for sure. Growth of China is over. It is upto India how they take advantage of that, and I have full faith that India will never loose and opportunity to loose and opportunity, and forever be in lower income trap.😵‍💫

[@souvikdey5422]

65% of Indians involved in agriculture contributing to only 12% of our total GDP.... agricultural policy reforms are essential to put India into double digit growth trajectory

[@praveenkaurwar3188]

Farm Laws were so necessary

[@sid8285]

Farm Laws were the essential reform needed which has been trashed forever now.

[@iamghani]

Yes, giving importance to agriculture, introducing laws, introducing education degrees and getting the technology and machinery creating dams and irrigation canals will solve two issues. Increase in economy & climate challenge. Soon world will run out off food and food security is going to be bigger challenge in 2300. India must be prepared. Food is going to modern fuel. Lands are not going be to fertile like before. Production reduces and demand will increase.

[@adityarajeshwakade8279]

Poor coverage of farm laws. Media only showed protests not the meaning of the LAW!!

[@deus_ex_machina_]

@@iamghani Small scale check dams will harvest rainwater without drowning land and displacing communities like large dams do, and soil must also be preserved by preventing erosion and curtailing tilling and overuse of chemicals.

[@Erinmills98]

I don’t know how but you’ve managed to package an unbiased analysis that is more entertaining than the sensationalized segment of economic and financial news. Thank you for your efforts to be the signal and not the noise. I understand that the economy is currently in a downturn and that we must wait for things to get better.

[@simonbad]

As hard as it may sound you can plan for the recession. If you are working, find extra work and get an Investment advisor. Protect your deposits by having enough cash in short term fixed income. Then cut your expenses, minimal insurance, cut utilities.

[@IrenaDolinsek]

@@simonbad I think the current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner. that's why i enjoy my day to day market decisions being guided by a portfolio-coach and for over 2years+ and I've netted over $800k.

[@AstaKristjan]

@@IrenaDolinsek Even if you have a humongous income you still need to draw up futuristic plans because anything can happen. One could lose one's job or whatever. Investment cannot be overemphasized. About your advisor, how does one reach pls?

[@IrenaDolinsek]

@@AstaKristjan Jennifer Puckett Hunter She's a reputable tutor who showed me that profits can be produced in both bull and downturn markets. She talks about investing, insurance, making sure your retirement is well-funded, and searching for methods to create a volatility buffer for investment risk, among other topics.

[@krishnapillai2595]

@@simonbad For truth, see ‘China Uncensored’ ‘Serpentza’ ‘laowhy86’ ‘The China Show’ ‘China Insights’ ‘Lei’s Real Talk’ ‘The International Insider’ ‘China Observer’

[@anna_kendrick]

It left out part where someone takes out a loan to purchase majority stake in a company using the company's assets as collateral, then using their majority stake to have the company decide to liquidate it's assets to pay off those loans and the investors, before leaving the hollowed-out business to rot. THEN, when the business inevitably folds, claiming those "losses" as a tax credit on their next financial endeavor.

[@Jessrobbie]

A 2022 Northwestern Mutual study found that 75% of U.S. adults admit their financial planning needs improvement. However, only 29% of Americans work with a financial advisor. Forex/stock is the best investment anyone could get into. As it could make you rich in a blink of an eye.

[@agnescarter]

​@@Jessrobbie😯really?? I've always wanted to invest in stocks but was always discouraged. I wanna start now

[@maryjanee329]

​@@agnescarterit's not recommendable to go into trading or investment when you don't know how it's done, Investing with a good guide is the best way to get started in the trade market. would free you from modern financial slavery.... I usually go with registered representatives. ''BRITTNEY ROSE COHEN" for example has the best performance history (in my opinion) and does offers 1v1 consultation to her copiers which I think is amazing. I don’t know how many traders like that are there.>

[@maryjanee329]

You know whatspp right? 👇 Take note of this digits .... To be one of her student.

[@maryjanee329]

➪†1850 ..

[@kortyEdna825]

Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.

[@shannonsally455]

My main concern now is how can we generate more revenue during quantitative times? I can't afford to see my savings crumble to dust.

[@carssimplified2195]

@@tudorrwilson That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?

[@carssimplified2195]

@@tudorrwilson Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.

[@karthik7486]

The citizens need to start behaving like citizens of a big economy now. We Indians are infamous for our indiscipline and uncleanliness. We need to change that primarily. Describing cities as beautiful chaos is just a backhanded compliment. So we all need to change at an individual level first. The country will develop on its own.

[@Tom-fw6bx]

How? Hike for 1000 mile to home?

[@killstreak4767]

​​@@Tom-fw6bxe's asking for a behavioural change not any cost related change.. Suppose you come last in your class but if your attitude will be like the topper, you'll automatically perform in a better way

[@ExploreIndia_ByRajeev]

Exactly these habits make the society better and functional, discipline is what created developed economies in the west and Japan,Korea,China, but in india everyone does what he wants to do, and hurt the economic prospects of a country . If People accept disciplined lifestyle ,good education and mindset change to businesses and manufacturing rather doing jobs .

[@krisgopi_8]

@@ExploreIndia_ByRajeev agreed but if you notice and observe Indian people, most of them instead of getting matured in the age of technology n internet are not putting efforts to evolve to sync with times. And we are massively populated country. At one point I had said earlier in our country people take more time , much more than what was expected to mature because India is the land of recycled people.

[@raunak7461]

For this change we need to become 10 trilionn dollar economy in 2030

[@ravinunna1168]

I'm not sure about other states but in Telangana I really see the difference. I'm from a small village in Telangana and I see huge difference in the people's living standards as of today when compared with year 2010. Almost all the old houses in my village a demoslised and people are constructing beautiful minimum 2 bed room homes with marble floor, sealing. When I climb my roof and see houses nearby almost all the houses have atleast one AC. Some have 2. I'm seeing cars moving around all the time in the streets which I never imagined. In 2010 only 1 or 2 homes had a car. Now I'm 30 years old. When I was in my 10th standard, which was exactly 15 years ago, I remember when people used to request us to use our land line phone, some would request us for ice cubes from our fridge and some even borrowed mixer grinders to prepare Dosa and Idly batter. But today there is no house in my village without these electronic items. People's living standards increased a lot. Edit: Telangana GDP per capita is already $4,000 which is 3Lakhs+. India average per capita is Low because of states like Bihar, UP, WB, MP, Jharkhand and Rajasthan. I know UP started attracting huge investments under Yogi govt and is going in right direction. But the remaining states are not doing much to attract investments.😞

[@wayfaringstranger579]

Jai telangana!

[@NoMustang273]

Irrespective of all this competition we are still doing a good job in improving our own lives. In 15-20 years this country will be a much nicer place to live than it is today. We should ultimately celebrate how much of a difference we're making.

[@Butunmallick7851]

It's everywhere,it's bcz things have become cheap even though we say inflation is high

[@deepomouli]

Yes,the only relevant comparison is with our own past.As long as we continue to do that we are doing fine.

[@ddsharma9793]

Absolutely Telangana is doing extremely well. It's all due to quality of human resources Telangana possess.🙏

[@carlorodriguez771]

With changes in the economy leading to instability in the stock market, some individuals may face a decrease in their investments in an effort to benefit from the current market conditions, I am considering liquidating my $725k portfolio consisting of bonds and stocks. Someone else in the same situation? Please tell me in the comments!..

[@Reymason317]

would suggest you thoroughly evaluate the companies you have invested in and their estimated future performance, as we may expect to see the market decline further. To minimize stress and improve efficiency, it might be wise to seek the assistance of an investment advisor to help restructure your portfolio and identify any underperforming investments to offset. This approach has been successful for me and has reduced my stress levels.

[@carlorodriguez771]

@@Reymason317 I have been exploring the possibility of utilizing advisors to help navigate the stock market during these uncertain times. However, I am still evaluating their potential effectiveness in providing the support I need.

[@Reymason317]

@@carlorodriguez771 Christy Val D'souza is an esteemed coach known for her proficiency in her area of expertise. You probably might have come across her. I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and i reached out to her afterwards. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can carry out a quick internet research on her name for more info. I basically follow her market moves and haven’t regretted doing so...

[@carlorodriguez771]

@@Reymason317 I was considering changing my investment strategy and planning to sell certain positions. As my retirement is coming soon,I became increasingly stressed. After thoroughly researching Christy Val D'souza on internet, I concluded that I had made an informed decision. Thank you for this Pointer. She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her too.

[@kortneyrawhouser6881]

My number one money rule is "diversification" and funny enough, I learned this late, almost too late. You must never put all your eggs in one basket. As one who has been into Real Estates for as long as I can remember, I made my first million earlier this year from stocks alone (used the services of an expert though). I also experiment with a couple of other things. Imagine what the situation would have been given the current housing market if I were solely banking on it. Goodluck to us all!

[@danielchen2857]

...Very sound and realistic... I am also a victim of this... Recently lost a lot in the FTX saga... You mentioned using pros, if its not a problem. do you mind telling who or recommending a good one? I could definitely use the help of one right now... I look forward to you replying...

[@haydenroberts5568]

facts only

[@kortneyrawhouser6881]

@@danielchen2857 Funny enough, I can honestly relate. I don't know if I am permitted to go into details on who I worked with but his name is "Adam Abraham Keith" and you could look him up. I'm not so sure he takes on new people right now, but you could try.

[@titanjack3118]

@@kortneyrawhouser6881 casually strolled into this thread and boom, I know this smallish man. Once attended a fundraiser he was also in attendance here in Vancouver,, calm looking man with with a funny accent,, He's in the States though, I doubt he works with non residents,,,

[@danielchen2857]

@@kortneyrawhouser6881 thanks

[@pspsdan]

If USA has high inflation then its nominal GDP increases, if India has high inflation then the rupee will depreciate and nullify India's nominal GDP growth. Thats the advantage of USA having dollar as reserve currency.

[@harrisonamerican2371]

Yeah u got it

[@AKumar-co7oe]

US can also do it only up to a point. There's a possibility that over printing leads to devaluation for them as well - but the threshold for them is higher. UK faced this recently where they thought they could get away with reserve-currency-like behaviour and ended up depreciating by 20%+

[@patelaakash267]

@@AKumar-co7oeit’s already happened. The inflation on milk, bread, and eggs is 76%.

[@subhmaypatra5562]

But he's talking about Real GDP growth and not Nominal GDP

[@pspsdan]

@@subhmaypatra5562 that is nominal GDP number he is talking about from IMF WEO 2023 database.... PPP wise India is rapidly reducing the gap.

[@siddhubabaji]

Hope we Indian's remember that we have a very bad habit of celebrating before real victory, & indeed we should be happy about our growth but also remember and always remember that we need to keep working very hard to keep increasing the growth rate of our country.

[@RoamingDoctors]

We should celebrate as it gives positivity. Only positive attitude towards life will make us progress. Others will hv more GDP growth due to their large economy. So their little growth with cause more GDP change.. but we indians will catch fast as more n more women are gng to work. PPL are investing education..

[@deus_ex_machina_]

@@RoamingDoctors Optimism should be tempered with realism. Female labour force participation is lower now than decades ago, and we could be heading into a middle income trap, where our labour becomes too expensive for cheap manufacturing, but productivity and skills aren't enough to become a high-income country.

[@urrasscal8380]

yeah! should had done popul. xchange after 47' partition, premature celebration of independence was the main fault .....iindia's main problem is iislamb , 2nd economy ( need double digit growth) 3rd unemployment 4th defense preparedness 5th embrace full capitalism with robust regularity system 6th massive investment in R & D and infrastructure & etc.

[@Butunmallick7851]

@@deus_ex_machina_ u want a country employed or females employed?first come out of these exclusive traps

[@Maverick-zo4kc]

India remained weak and poor for a long time because of KHANgress party's disastrous economic policies. And yes, it is right that China is way ahead of India currently but it is not impossible to catch up with China. We can do it. We are heading in the right direction.

[@mg.f.9023]

India importing value added goods from China and exporting raw materials to China tells the whole story.

[@madleon81]

Ask Pappu what MoU he signed

[@TheSoLuna2]

Yeah, when Congress decided to reward China with an access of Indian market, it killed Indian msme. Look no further than Sivakasi. However, that is ending and our MSMEs have rebounded. Eventually, we will see lower exports from China. Another thing - India is doing small value adds to components we are importing from China. Until we catch up, this story is here to stay.

[@Sagar251291]

China also imports raw materials (like commodities or metals) before they create the materials needed for finished products in India. Instead of looking at just the consolidated value, rather observe the Gross Value Add for that product i.e. the amount of money value that your supply chain component added to the final product. (India's Value Add is around 18% for mobile phones as per Goldman Sachs analysis). The focus hence should be how can more value adding processes are done in India like Fabrication, Research in Chip Design & IPR and not low value add like mining or purification etc.

[@wionporky9937]

​ Dose Indian got the capability to replicate or excel what the Chinese had done?

[@Butunmallick7851]

@@madleon81 we can't blame any party🙄it's the system we live where babus want to sit ND eat

[@mailtorajrao]

It's a bit obvious Indian economy can not be compared with US & China. It's not a fair comparison... That in the last 5 to 10 years it has done excellent work in digital & physical infra & spaces to propel to be a future middle income economy (That a UPA2 type govt will set everything back by 5-10 years is also a certainty)

[@vineethg6259]

Perhaps you should try comparing GDP growth rates in UPA years and Modi years and see if you notice any difference. And, while you are there, check the unemployment statistics too.

[@mailtorajrao]

@@vineethg6259 True but let's compare the GDP Growth numbers after adjusting for inflation.. annual unemployment has largely been flat in the last 30 years (World Bank)

[@victordashmohapatra3546]

GDP per capita is reflection of Individual Productivity, in West if a company aims to 2x its production they hire more machines, in India if a company aims to 2x its production we hire more people. Amount of work done per person hasn't changed.

[@rajx7120]

Lol! You think, it is easy to hire 2X people in India? Our labour laws, make it harder, to build factories greater than 100 workers. New labour codes increase it to 300. But for Bangladesh, the size is 1000.

[@Arvindchauhan-qv6gd]

​@@rajx7120a complete crap...

[@TheUndertaker2408]

We cannot hire machines. India needs to generate employment at Large scale.

[@tubusingh]

​@@TheUndertaker2408India has not developed because of such primitive socialist ideas....You increase new opportunities there in the free Market for employment... you create a large talent pool...but you don't employ 1000 people in a single company where requirement is of 100 people...And to increase production capacity, quality, productivity and to maintain global standards and compete with the globe, you have to acquire machines.... you must adapt machinary and automation in key sectors in this fast changing world...If you don't adapt new ideas and new technologies and new form of income sources and employment opportunities, you will simply die in this highly competitive globalized free Market because of lack of productivity and adaptability...

[@arindambaisya]

@@tubusingh That's exactly right! Socialist ideas like these have their hearts in the right place, but completely miss the point. Automation and scalability are what India needs.

[@sudhirnayak8086]

There appears to be an obsession with comparing with other economies in Indian media. The focus should be on improving the GDP per capita, poverty numbers, human development indices, life expectancy, pollution metrics etc. These appear to be rarely discussed.

[@alexcotton4658]

Yeah numbers can be misleading, even if we become 5 trillion economy does not mean we have surpassed Germany or other developed countries

[@nln729]

Well said, still large part of population had to live on free ration. So all these figures of growth of no sense if the fruits of growth is not reflected in the people’s lives.

[@tito98496]

100%

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

Let's be realistic. India will never be a developed country in it's lifetime. Even if India grows, it will get stuck in the middle income trap forever. India will also face major resource shortage due to overpopulation and face the wrath of climate change. India's resource base isn't large enough to support an economy too large either. Also the West and China can sabotage India in a jiffy if it grows too much. Also most Indians don't have unity and are still backward minded and tribalistic. Corruption and being unethical has become so deep rooted that it's become impossible to fix it. Also, the number of talented Indians leaving India is increasing at an alarming rate every year and many of these Indians who left India brag about India being the next big thing which is extremely comedic. The most mind boggling thing is that even if God comes down from heaven and says that India will never be a developed country, pa jeets will call him anti Indian and continue living in their fantasy of India being a developed country. To conclude, India may improve in some areas, but it always stay a corrupt 3rd world uncivilized sh8hole. Hence, forget your dreams of being a developed country pa jeets. India is an utterly failed experiment. Adios

[@sanju-rm7vy]

I have failed to understand the reason for ctc . Either you want us to apologize for celebrating for reaching five trillion economy or look at China and USA with awe . In the end you want the government to take a deep breath and say we have nothing to celebrate . But has the government stopped working on economy ? Have we stopped improving on economy . If so your ctc is praiseworthy .

[@betterbhagalpur8837]

SG.. Since you are talking Economy today, there is one metric that is not much discussed You have already presented GDP per capita, as one of the importance metric. 👍🏼👍🏼 One more metric to consider here is Ranking of Countries as per Export. Here India stands at Rank 18. So we might be in Top 5 big Economies, but we are decades away from being an Export Giant. Even tiny Netherlands export is more than twice of India.

[@getquickinternational184]

Thanks for this vital info

[@mithu11]

Chinese growth is because of their government,Indian growth is despite our judiciary, bureaucracy and leaders…

[@johndoe-vc1we]

Chinese growth is because it's a western assisted economy since day 1 of their liberalisation program 😉

[@mudra5114]

Chinese growth was because of their high labour productivity in manufacturing compared to other third world countries.

[@mudra5114]

@@johndoe-vc1we True for India too.😉

[@johndoe-vc1we]

@@mudra5114 India is not an assisted economy. We do not have a peace dividend even today which China has enjoyed for the last forty years and Japan & Germany enjoyed for twice as long. Those two are also examples of assisted economies. Everything China has achieved today is due to the US. Can we say that of India. No you cannot. Everything India has achieved comes from India. India's growth is therefore unstoppable.

[@Aashu299]

@@mudra5114no, it’s not. We are a consumption based economy not export based like China.

[@sandeepvk]

_We compare ourselves with China just like Pakistan compares themselves with India_ :)

[@AKumar-co7oe]

at least we are now growing faster than china consistently

[@Myanmartiger921]

Pakistan is a akula class failed state which cant pay for its underwear(as machinery is imported) or petrol since 1971 50 years even before than it paid for it by American aid and Bangladeshi export money.

[@poushalinag7942]

​@@AKumar-co7oeChina is 17 trillion economy and still growing by 5.2%. In their peak, they were growing 10, 12% whereas India is just growing at 6,7% at its peak.

[@JitzyJT]

@@AKumar-co7oe bruh!!! China peaked over 12% during it's prime.......That too consistently for years

[@TheUndertaker2408]

@@poushalinag7942india has grown 10 percent during congress rule of mr. Singh

[@rajeshsookram3038]

Yes you are correct. For India to narrow that gap it has to grow at a minimum rate of 10% .

[@vikramganasen]

Sadly can’t see that happen

[@sooryaganesh6370]

For that we need to grow our manufacturing sector, and increase exports

[@Butunmallick7851]

If it was 5-10 yrs ago,it was possible 🤔but now it's nearly impossible bcz if USA ND eu sees us growing so fast they will make changes in rules,involve us in unnecessary conflicts,stop giving developing nation advantages

[@dragonjpt1195]

No that is not enough.. 12-15℅ needed.. Well, currently we are expecting 6.1% for next fiscal year.. Also, the cyclic slowdown to Indian economy is also nearing which occurs in every 4-5 yrs

[@rajendranmuthuru1769]

Thinking of all the corruption taking place everywhere,the system of governments in deep negativity, caste religion incoherent, dishonest politicians and bureaucrats aiming millions of wealth making by any means.India is nowhere near advanced countries.

[@mg.f.9023]

We need to support all small n medium industries. Not just put all India’s assets in the hands of two industrialists!

[@rajx7120]

Not support. Make them grow ! This supporting business, keeps them small. To make them grow, we need labour reforms.

[@TheUndertaker2408]

Punjab is known for MSME’s and Punjab has one of the lowest poverty rates in the Indian Union. Because of this Ludhiana and Jalandhar are in the top 10 wealthiest cities as the wealth is distributed more equally among the population of this cities.

[@Butunmallick7851]

It's ur narrow minded thoughts😏u think shark tank owners r not employing msme?

[@pruthvimeka3259]

I just don’t get why if a small and medium industry wants to grow the 2industrialists should take a hit. It’s like if you want to grow the only way you can do it is by bringing the other guy down. Those 2 industrialists are reliable very reliable. Better let them stay as is. Sure we can help grow the others. No need to bring down those 2.

[@prayagkumar2242]

India cannot achieve its economic potential without making education accessible to ~350 million dalits and adivasi population. Affordable education and upskilling of most marginalized people is required to enable them to contribute in nation building. We have been wasting big chunk of human capital so far.

[@vijayakumarsamuel7748]

This has been purposely done to keep a section of populace ignorant, and slavish. The business in India wants the Adivasi lands because of its rich mineral wealth but dont want to compensate them , when they try to defend they are called naxals, if NGOs go for their defence tey are called Urban Naxals, Foreign funded terrorists. On the one hand our guys sign up Climate Change Accord but on the other hand we dont mind destruction of our pristine forests call it development to 5T economy.

[@Myanmartiger921]

And healthcare atleast till age of 21 25. Add to that clean water Internet and few more things.

[@prayagkumar2242]

@@Myanmartiger921 Couldn't agree more. I have seen a few examples of educated adivasi youngsters working to make live better (in education and healthcare) in tribal regions of southern Chhattisgarh.

[@fwefhwe4232]

but the problem is that govt run schools have teacher reservations on the basis of caaste (occupied by these daalits and tribals) and they are paid hefty salaries (60k INR per month), equivalent to fancy DPS schools. the only way forward is removing teacher reservations, filtering out bottom 20% of teachers every year (based on board results) and getting fresh recruits. It should show in improved classroom quality. Also, selling off existing govt schools to pvt players is also a good option.

[@user-sc8hs3yh1q]

@@fwefhwe4232 [but the problem is that govt run schools have teacher reservations on the basis of caaste (occupied by these daalits and tribals)] No, that's not the real problem. The teacher recruitment is highly irregular. There are more hundred thousand single-teacher-government-schools in India. If you conduct an actual survey of all the school teacher's in India, you will find a high representation of upper caste (a.k.a "meritorious") teachers. As compared to UCs there are very few graduates among dalits and tribal communities. The supply itself is less. Same is the case with IITs. Out of ~5200 professors, only 170 are from SC/ST community! That doesn't mean we blame poor quality of research in IITs on upper caste professors. [and they are paid hefty salaries (60k INR per month), equivalent to fancy DPS schools.the only way forward is removing teacher reservations, filtering out bottom 20% of teachers every year (based on board results) and getting fresh recruits.] Salary is not a problem, lack of accountability is. Government school teachers are highly unionised. This method of filtering of "bottom" 20% teachers is highly reductionist. Who will guarantee if the top 80% is sincere ? [It should show in improved classroom quality.Also, selling off existing govt schools to pvt players is also a good option.] Poor teaching quality has nothing to do with the caste of the Teacher. lack of proper teacher training, abysmal infrastructure is the major issue. Privatization cannot solve everything. Buildling and developing human resource is not same as airline or railway business.

[@anchitdutta3627]

I agree with the need for caution in our optimism. But while this serves as a reality check, SC Garg’s article exaggerates it by calling it alarming. There’s nothing alarming about it, because Indias GDP base is way too small. If America even grows at 1.5% their economy would record a greater increase simply because their base in 7X of ours. This fact should keep us Indians humble, but NOT alarmed, like SC Garg liked to put it

[@nacpatil]

Leftists and idiots who follow them are beyond repair in india!

[@amanarya4915]

Totally agreed

[@anuragchakraborty8766]

Yes but what should alarm you Gobar Bhakts is that 1 Billion Indians are living in poverty

[@amanarya4915]

@@anuragchakraborty8766 what is your metric ?? 1 billion is a lot that almost like 70 percent of the total Indian population

[@surajbiradar9827]

When you have a low base the growth needs to be very high to expand that base rapidly, and not mediocre 5-6%. China registered 10-12% of growth at its peak. And the worst part is the government ministers and many people in India have already declared victory in economic terms. And they think merely surpassing an economy of a country of 68 million people by a country of 1.4 billion people is something revolutionary. The amount of delusion is what is really alarming.

[@248harish]

It's good when CTC keeps things in perspective. It not only tells us how much we have to change as a country but also as an individual.

[@AA13494]

whenever the govt tries to bring reforms, yeh lefty aa jate hai protest karne.

[@bikramsingh7768]

Yes. Andhbhakts need to start seeing.

[@drindianguru1]

@@AA13494 Why is the right wing so weak that it goes on its knees with small protests. They should have firmly said no.

[@Thoughtflux]

Per capita income matters the most. Income affects happiness. Today we are one of the most unhappiest places on earth. We need to change that.

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

India may grow fast at random points of time, but it will never become an advanced economy. To be an advanced economy you need to have a per capita gdp of $20000, a high hdi rank, strong technological and industrial prowess. Look where India stands in these parameters. Countries like Russia, Malaysia, Mexico and Brazil could not transition to advanced economies and whether China will make it is unknown. If these countries couldn't make it, then there is no way in hell India will become an advanced economy.

[@brajeshsingh2391]

Some good points there. I agree that comparison with Us is meaningless but gap between India China widening is a point. Especially given the fact that India has now overtaken China as most populated country.

[@zakquen]

More population will drag down india

[@rameshpudhucode6862]

If you extrapolate US population to China it is around $117 trillion. German population to China it is around $70 trillion.

[@HarshPatel6293]

Population increase beyond a certain point doesn't result in corresponding economic growth, which is why US and other developed nations are not trying to rapidly increase their population otherwise their standard of living would drastically decrease.

[@wionporky9937]

Yes, there are still plenty of rooms for the Chinese. If the GDP per Capita of Chinese is "Half of US" the Chinese GDP will be bigger than US, Europe and Japan combined. 😮

[@NoMustang273]

​@@HarshPatel6293No one is saying that. They're pointing out how huge their economies would be if they had the same population as China but keeping the high incomes. It shows how far behind we and even China is.

[@DSMEAKASH]

But is it possible for Germany to have a population like us...no So ig your theory is absurd

[@wionporky9937]

@@DSMEAKASH The point He trying to make is India high GDP is because of a huge population and not because she is rich😁

[@alexcotton4658]

We are number 3 because japan is stagnating. Population wise we are nowhere close to japan even if we overtake it

[@AARJVERACITY]

So we should feel bad if we got there

[@alexcotton4658]

Nah, we cannot grow unless we accept ground truth. Going to 3rd rank is indeed a good thing however its just not enough

[@ssd7853]

Sach bol ke kattar nationalist ka dil mat todo..

[@jkardez4794]

@@AARJVERACITY You should feel bad that you're illiterate.

[@dwaipayanmoitra4651]

​@@ssd7853true nationalist knows the ground reality.

[@adityasarda5118]

Love the comments section here. Just talks about economy in general. No Politics, no partying sides. Just honest talk about India and how it has performed & how can we improve. ❤

[@deepaklegaldeepak]

The government should shelve more money to people to fund their businesses. It is darn difficult to get a loan to set up a small unit even now.

[@oliverqueen8439]

Thank you for providing a refreshing reality check instead of merely touting India's growth narrative. I value truth over one-sided stories, which seems increasingly challenging to find in today's media landscape. This perspective not only provides a more balanced viewpoint but also inspires me to research the significant factors contributing to China's massive growth. By doing so, we can identify strategies to accelerate India's pace of development.

[@georgeramapuram]

The fact that we are 3 rd shows that we are growing faster than many but maybe the gap grows with China and US. Thats ok. Lets still celebrate the small wins while we are 3rd largest economy in the whole world in our generation's lifetime. Isnt that wonderful ? As Indians, lets dream for 2nd. It will happen! If not today or tomorrow, atleast in our kid's generation :) ❤

[@sectumsempra9837]

Sure , but you will still be poor, while the top 1% hold all the wealth. keep waiting for the wealth to trickle down.

[@sectumsempra9837]

FYI an avg american has 500$ in this bank account. we will be the same if we continue on this path

[@merebaap8370]

Your kids generation? That's being just way too optimistic. Lot of things can go wrong if there is no path correction by the govt. If India grows at this rate and China grows at half of India's rate it will take India at least 50 years to level. Your kid might be saying the same thing as you.

[@jkardez4794]

You must be a kid to celebrate something mundane like that . One can understand uneducated people behaving like juveniles over a questionable statistic - ever stopped to count the number of those living BPL . Nominal GDP is for pseudopatriots.You must be a kid to celebrate something mundane like that . One can understand uneducated people behaving like juveniles over a questionable statistic - ever stopped to count the number of those living BPL . Nominal GDP is for pseudopatriots.

[@monumeena348]

Stop cringing more now . Just accept the truth

[@tito98496]

Our GDP and it's growth rate is something to be proud of. However I still believe GDP per capita is a better metric to gauge a country's prosperity, because it sheds light on wealth distribution.

[@JitzyJT]

per capita doesn't shine light on wealth distribution.......wealth distribution totally depends on the size of middle class

[@sankalp6872]

Per capita GDP in PPP terms is a more complete indicator.

[@Thanuraj.Mysuru]

Wealth distribution doesn't come from Per capita it's just Total GDP / Population its gini coefficient that explains, US has High gdp per capita but China has achieved better income distribution and savings for people. us high gdp is attributed to it's big tech giants, and fortune companies who do business all over the world and make huge Revenue which will benefit Billionaires and Govt majorly while workers live from paycheck to paycheck.

[@showmethemoney824]

did you forget to add the population to your equation ... also don't forget the freebies

[@TheMemeGuy124]

We need to grow the economy before we excessively focus on equality. If there is no growth everyone will be equally poor.

[@-Neutron-Star]

One of your best Cut the Clutter episodes! I am always cautious when speaking about India’s growth story! I visited China just before the Pandemic and I was completely amazed at the scale and quality of growth China has achieved!

[@cheeho9698]

Glad you came to China.

[@jaswantsokey1877]

The fact still remains that it is also the per capita income that stimulates GDP. India performs poorly here compared to the other countries in particular China, Japan and the Western economies of European countries.

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

Let's be realistic. India will never be a developed country in it's lifetime. Even if India grows, it will get stuck in the middle income trap forever. India will also face major resource shortage due to overpopulation and face the wrath of climate change. India's resource base isn't large enough to support an economy too large either. Also the West and China can sabotage India in a jiffy if it grows too much. Also most Indians don't have unity and are still backward minded and tribalistic. Corruption and being unethical has become so deep rooted that it's become impossible to fix it. Also, the number of talented Indians leaving India is increasing at an alarming rate every year and many of these Indians who left India brag about India being the next big thing which is extremely comedic. The most mind boggling thing is that even if God comes down from heaven and says that India will never be a developed country, pa jeets will call him anti Indian and continue living in their fantasy of India being a developed country. To conclude, India may improve in some areas, but it always stay a corrupt 3rd world uncivilized sh8hole. Hence, forget your dreams of being a developed country pa jeet. India is an utterly failed experiment. Adios

[@vip129870]

Where was this “reality check” when China was beating Congress for 10 years? 😂

[@merebaap8370]

Very much here but at that time you might be doing something good or you were a kid with little interest or understanding of politics and economy. And most importantly your mind was not poisoned by hate, hindutva and hypocrisy.

[@user-pz6sx7ir1p]

sg was sucking his thumb and you know what else of sonia and rajiv

[@jkardez4794]

So you don't like reality checks like the Congress .

[@Myanmartiger921]

10 years? More like 30 35

[@JitzyJT]

that's why congress is removed......

[@anonymous-cg4ot]

Nice perspective. Since I knew our gap with China has been widening, I was never satisfied with our growth rate. We have to grow in double digits, put all our energy in accelerating evonomic growth, aggressively push people above poverty line, make sure they get quality education and spend more on R&D. We have to do these. Only then, we will be in a respectable position in 2047. Otherwise, the world media will then how wasted Indian potential has become in these 100 years. We have a LOT of catching up to do.

[@Myanmartiger921]

Not realistic till 2047 if we can achieve 60 70 percent of no 2 whoever it is or become no 2 that would be more than enough. 2047 is just 24 years away 2057 67 I understand.

[@braillgebra1706]

Tbh GDP at purchasing power parity is much better measurement of standard of living. I don't know why economiser and experts are so obsessed with nominal gdp while talking about poverty in the same breath

[@nsevv]

Nice that is fast! india just opened economy about 3 years ago.

[@saureld2229]

I think certain things have to be in place for the economy to take off, India has leapfrogged in terms of the service sector but we completely bypassed manufacturing, almost jumping from an agricultural to service sector. when manufacturing becomes more formalized, Land and labor reforms are in place and infrastructure is sufficient to seamlessly transport raw materials to factories and finished good to ports then the rate of growth will increase until then it's a steady march to set these things up in the first place.

[@TheSoLuna2]

Agree.

[@sreedharch3025]

We all need to focus on water harvesting for securing better lives. Just high income or GDP is not going to feed our population, we need to focus on birth control more than extending life expectancy to manage better resources for all. With automation going to play a large role, high population will negate per capita income and ppp.

[@cheeho9698]

It has been proven that the service economy is not the "real economy". You have to generate wealth to service it. Wealth generators are Raw materials resources and Manufacturing. The Ukraine war showed that even sanctions on Russian services like the SWIFT system does not work because it has a real economy of raw materials like oil, gas, minerals and agricultural products. It also has a manufacturing sector. Economists are now re considering Service importance in an economy.

[@brainymandar6]

India is still the only country where poverty is celebrated and becomes an election slogan. This is happening since 1970s when Indira Gandhi said गरीबी हटाव Modi in 2023 says मैं गरीब का बेटा हू. Modi is even far more economic left than Indira Gandhi. We are still not liberated economy as we should be. I see an average Indian still has an aversion or a guilt to show the material richness. West is a happy, healthy and great place to live because they have embraced materialism openly. Indians by and large still take a pride in the outdated virtue like "Simple Living and High Thinking". All these have a collective impact on us as a society and our politics and hence economic policies.

[@JitzyJT]

In India even providing basic necessities like bathrooms or toilets are celebrated as election campaign....let alone poverty

[@mudra5114]

Say "Simple Living and High Thinking", but be corrupt and greedy in reality.

[@RajivKumar-ev2gr]

What is the comparison on PPP basi of GDP and per capita income? 19:50

[@dandmello5283]

Thanks Shekar for the elaborate excellent updates It's truly great 👍 listening to you Too Shekarji

[@umak5128]

He reminds me of my old school master who says - OK, you have improved from the last test, but the class #1 person is still beating you by a lot. Baby steps Shekarji. Once the base grows to 5T, getting to 10T is a lot easier than going from 2.5T to 5T. Just how mathematics work

[@Dara_107]

And wasn’t it something that motivated people to score better? ( especially the ones who were close to top ranks). As an Indian I am happy with the progress and I am excited about the future but that will only happen when baby steps are at least adolescent steps and problems are solved intuitively.

[@msdadsfsx]

no thats not how it works. rate of doubling remains the same, 2.5 to 5, n 5 to 10 same time if growth rate is same.

[@NoMustang273]

​@msdadsfsx Yeah but the point is that it multiplies. It took 7 years to go from 1 trillion to 2 trillion and I think 5 years to reach 3. Now those are not that huge on the grand scale but once you reach 5 trillion, in 7 years you reach 10 and then 20. Basically our economy becomes massive very quickly.

[@msdadsfsx]

@@NoMustang273 that was not ur initial point, doubling time remains the same.

[@braillgebra1706]

​@@msdadsfsxhe said easier not faster. Even though doubli time remains same the economy adds more trillions in the same time interval when the base is higher

[@kalpavrukshg8853]

I think the problem is with the people we are not accepting that capitalism as a system with regulations is best known method for growth and who ever is in opposition attacks that idea. For example, farm laws (opposed by congress)and retail in FDI( opposed by BJP), although I think withdrawal of farm laws was a bigger loss for Indian economy recently

[@zikrbrar3937]

Yea for u everythjn is relTed to farm laws .... !! Let me ask u somethin .. a+b+c is needed to grow W , and product is Z when its in market .. lets say in 1980 .... So wen u shud have asked for.farm.laws , as it was to implement swaminathan s resukts .. anyways .. now a,b,c is increaswd , A , B ,C ..... like petrol ,diesel , sprays , seeds , labour , trqxtor , every thing .... The slaaries whixh were 200,300 is now 50000, 60000 ..... same way diesel , labour , everything is icreased at same rate ... and price of final product ,is also invreased by same perventage almost .. so this is understandable , corect !! But only thing which doeznt increase by even 5 th or 6 th part of yhat perventage is W, .. Wow !! So , farmer has to buy and pay everythinh at todayz price and his crop s final product also goes on todays price .. but only time , that prodixt is useless ,whrn its at farmers fields . Now , dont say provessing - lol .. how its possible ???? If u usdd to spend 10 to make w (20) and maerket proce was 30 lets say .. and now U spend 30 to make anf market price is also 90 .. but W is priced at 35-40 hardly .. and that price also they d9nt want to pay .. they dont wany to make msP must ,whixh is already a loot . But No , we wont even pay that minimum amount .. therr s no need of subsody and any fxkin thing , jus if real proce wd have been paid .. farmer hardly gets , as muxh money tp zpend on next crop .. its just that they dont stop doin it .. and those who were saying they buy rice and everythin .. so yea, u pay the companies , and not farmers !! U r paying correct ,but they not even paying minimu. To farmers , and dats y he owes every1 . And u psying for rice , doesnt solve farmers issue .. ( it was for pepple who said kaun sa ehsaan kia kisaano ne - muft mein to nahi dia ) .. anywyqs actually , india was food def3cirnt , and punjqb, hatyana , up, brought harit kranti . Mad3 india atam.nirbhar ,, bhar dia desh ko anqaj se . But actually it will ultm .ately destroy our lands very soon .. den we wont evevn ask msp . We should have stopped long back .

[@arpitpatel5814]

Appreciate your every effort to keep this postive. Thank You 🙏🏻

[@bhiwaji]

Great Analysis, Shekhar sir. Well Structured and easy to understand.

[@purigoswami4925]

Nobody saying there is no gap but it takes only two decades to close gap with good growth rate . Till 2050 china and usa will not grow too much but india will be

[@rohitnijhawan5281]

100% agree but the caveat is that, for that to happen you need to build high quality infrastructure at blazingly high speed like China has done. In addition you need people to be confident in the rule of law, insitutions and governance. Can that happen? I don't know. Can a person in India be relatively confident that they won't be hurt on the road? If they are hurt an ambulance will arrive in time If the ambulance takes them to a hospital, their bills will be covered by the insurance of the party that caused the accident... All of these things are part of an economic system that is functioning well. It might take another 30 years of progress for India to get all that.

[@jkardez4794]

Keep smoking CBD .

[@urrasscal8380]

it is far far better to be in the 3rd best in economy than none..... but iindia's main problem is iislamb 2nd need double digit gdp 3rd unemployment 4th inflation 5th infrastructure etc...

[@wionporky9937]

At the current Indian economy size. CHINA is having a sustainable double digits growth for 40 Years. 😮

[@NoMustang273]

​@@wionporky9937That's not true at all. China was at India's size in 2007 and went from double dig to single around 2009 onwards. Still high but not at the 10% it used to be. China's economy might slow down significantly in the coming years but we'll have to see

[@naddirpatel]

Never forget that India was #5 in 1947. After 70 years of the imposed socialism by the Nehru family it ended up bankrupt in the early eighties.

[@easwaransanthakumar297]

You mean to say that British gave us good economy.

[@alexcotton4658]

#5 in what?

[@alexcotton4658]

Though Nehrus take on globalisation hurt india, still his non alignment helped us drastically. You saw Pakistan's graph right. That would have been us if we had mingled among US or Russia

[@arinjoynandy4785]

@@alexcotton4658 they were getting funded till the war was going in middle east, singapore adopted globalisation look where they are now

[@kartikeykasniya6971]

​@@easwaransanthakumar297 not really, but the world grew much faster with capitalism, we didn't

[@suneel7053]

Full of insights and beautiful montage shots showing India, Indian economy and Indian people.

[@KushalTripathi]

No one talks about productivity. Increase in the productivity is the direct indicator of employment. Everyone talks about just GDP figure.

[@user-vk1bm]

Mrs shekhar gupta by 2030 indias gdp will around 7 trillion and china around 30 trillion thats roughly 4 times but now its 6 times bigger than ours , I think that as our economy grows in 15 years this ratio will down to 2

[@tejesheconomics4072]

😂😂 but our currency depreciates so badly.....we may never be their....please understand instead of doing bajan

[@mayanksingh0044]

every 20+ min video from SG is a cause of celebration. we need more like that

[@rahuldeshpande913]

Nice economic analysis. But one should not forget that more entangled the economies of countries are..one can expect to see such statistics. The rupee depreciation has played a role in current dollar terms....so would like to see what are the gaps in terms of PPP. I think there one would expect to see much less.

[@Power0fNow]

Got it. The message is Stop celebrating. You will never succeed. Just give up. Sounds like my dad when I was growing up.

[@nagbalkur1365]

Few comments 1) There was a recent Goldman Sachs Report few months ago, said by 2075, US, China and India all would be around $52 trillions. So, India is behind, today, but it'll catch up 2) There was a presentation by Ruchir Sharma in NDTV, Indian economy was 5th in the world in 1947 (primarily due to most of bigger economies getting destroyed due to World War II). So, Mr. Sharma's point was, India is where it was 75 years ago ago. He makes it clear that, while world grew spectacularly after World War II, India due to its socialist closed economic policies, grew at about 3 percent. 3) Overall, most experts say China with all its headwinds, will grow slowly, and with India growing at higher rate, the 6 times differentiation that China enjoys today, will come down in another 10-12 years when India reaches $10 trillion mark

[@bloodwargaming3662]

Those are projections mate and Goldman Sachs isn't the best for these kinds of economic reviews , IMF World Bank data are more reliable

[@ashishkumar-gz8vz]

Keep on dreaming...1st india wont reach 10 trill in next 10 yrs ..and china even at 3% will keep increasing the difference even if india grows at 7% .

[@qiangliu5950]

If you consider urbanization rate, life expectancy and agriculture labor ratio, Japan, South Korea and China's GDP growth rate was around 10% when they were at a similar stage as India. Thailand and Malaysia were at 7~8%

[@cheeho9698]

China's economy is about 5 times the size of India's. For every one percent Chinese growth it is equal to 5% of India's. Simple maths, for every 1% Chinese growth India has to grow 5% just to stay even.

[@gauravk1290]

I highly admire Shekhar's journalism and analysis. I regularly watch #cuttheclutter at 1.5 speed since I used have a complain about his slow news/data delivery. Thanks #youtube for making this feasible! Anyone else here like me, who watch this show at 1.5 speed to save time while grasping best news n analysis stories?

[@deus_ex_machina_]

Shekhar ji's leisurely and rhythmic pace enhances impact and helps me unwind. Playing content too fast saves time, but it might reduce comprehension and long-term recall. I find KZbin's increments of '.25' to be too coarse, podcast players usually increment in steps of '.1'. On PC I use an extension called 'Enhancer for KZbin', which lets you increment in steps of '.1' with the mouse wheel. On mobile, there's not much you can do, except watch on a mobile browser with such an extension or use an alternative KZbin client like Vanced.

[@vedalee246]

@@deus_ex_machina_ i have time for his endeavors

[@ghatak580]

for young speed is good, but many aged wants his slow journalism 😂 good that we have option of speed, so no problem

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

Let's be realistic. India will never be a developed country in it's lifetime. Even if India grows, it will get stuck in the middle income trap forever. India will also face major resource shortage due to overpopulation and face the wrath of climate change. India's resource base isn't large enough to support an economy too large either. Also the West and China can sabotage India in a jiffy if it grows too much. Also most Indians don't have unity and are still backward minded and tribalistic. Corruption and being unethical has become so deep rooted that it's become impossible to fix it. Also, the number of talented Indians leaving India is increasing at an alarming rate every year and many of these Indians who left India brag about India being the next big thing which is extremely comedic. The most mind boggling thing is that even if God comes down from heaven and says that India will never be a developed country, pa jeets will call him anti Indian and continue living in their fantasy of India being a developed country. To conclude, India may improve in some areas, but it always stay a corrupt 3rd world uncivilized sh8hole. Hence, forget your dreams of being a developed country pa jeets. India is an utterly failed experiment. Adios

[@jansb7049]

Sir, one question. So in the year 2028 we will be like 3rd in the world overtaking Japan and after that next slide (the one with PER CAPITA INCOME) ours is at 3,720 and Japan's at 44,000. Is this huge difference in the no is because of the population count ?

[@mahantkumartiwari312]

Since we are celebrating the current success doesn't mean we are ignorant of what else is there to achieve. There will always be work to do, and everything takes time- you don't always sound intelligent by being pessimistic.

[@sectumsempra9837]

yes we need to work hard and make more money for the top1%

[@surajs5913]

​@@sectumsempra9837no we need to make sure that everyone is equally poor...

[@agnimitram340]

​@@sectumsempra9837let's make everyone a beggar. That will be awesome 🎉🎉.

[@jkardez4794]

@@surajs5913 Only two fat cats getting richer..,

[@karthik7486]

@@sectumsempra9837it means you don’t have the brains and the hard work to become rich. You just want to sit on your lazy ass blaming Ambani adani and expect thr govt to give you all the money. Just get lost from the country if you only want to shot on the country but aren’t optimistic abt it. We’ve got plenty of ppl who just point out problems. We don’t need more of your kind. You are just a burden and a drag on the system that’s it.

[@mg.f.9023]

Democracy is what the Chinese people cannot enjoy as poor & rich in India do. Freedom of individual is priceless.

[@amiteshsingh5033]

Nobody gives a damn about democracy if they are enjoying much better living conditions and lifestyle. If China removed Immigration laws, half of India would gladly move to Chinese cities

[@Tom-fw6bx]

U can pee anywhere

[@mg.f.9023]

@@Tom-fw6bx Andhbhakt of BJP was caught peeing on a tribal! Every one need not be like andhbhakts 😅

[@vhyome9786]

Would really appreciate if a transcript of these episodes is provided.

[@shreyaslahoti7542]

Amazing insight! 🎉❤

[@anuragdas9400]

It would be ludicrous to think that we are growing faster than China, 4% growth on a base of 17.7 T$ is still higher than a 7% growth on a base of 3.39 T$.

[@ralluriutah]

While, all this is true. It’s not simple, even after cutting the clutter. The true measure of GDP should PPP. A gallon of milk in America is far costlier than a gallon of milk in India. In PPP India is about $11 to 12 T. China and America aren’t that far away, around 23 and 18 respectively. So yeah, a wholelistic picture with PPP & CPI are required to gauge the strength of an economy. India is not weak, we will only get stronger vis-a-vis China & America.

[@NoMustang273]

You're comparing PPP to China's nominal GDP. They're at 30 trillion. Granted the gap is smaller than the nominal GDP gap but it won't reduce much even by the end of the decade. After another 20 to 30 years it'll come much closer

[@kamaldelhi1999]

Shekharji is like ..If a student who was lagging very far behind others ,increases his pace and is about to come to no. 3 in race ...instead of encouraging him and looking at this as a silver lining ,one starts looking at all the statistics to put him down .Hats off to you Shekhar ji for doing so much hard work to find some logic to make Indians pessimistic about coming to number 3 in a few years from now . By the way ,I hope you have read the recent opinion of world experts which says that China's economy is much lower than what it projects as the statistics are totally fudged in a totalitarian state wheras US economy is at the highest pedestal only because of dollar being a fiat currency ...and both economies are poised for correction in next few years. But these facts are not suitable to the narrative which Mr Shekhar wants to build .

[@Mahindra-fn4sw]

Kamaldelhi brilliant thought provoking reply

[@purushothr5959]

Good Analysis, Kudos 😊

[@peacelover2002]

I would say, we don't need double digit growth for 3-4 decades. Just having double digit growth for one decade will do wonders for India. China had just 6-8 years of double digit growth. Rest were 9% or so. We just have to make some tough policy changes which might not be possible in democratic India.

[@Anmol4824]

Eye Opener Analysis..Thank you..

[@user-pz6sx7ir1p]

wow, am glad that you are not working. must be a woke person who does not know what goes around.

[@ShibasisPatnaik]

Hi Shekhar. Great video. Do you think you can make a video about how an individual can contribute to increasing the growth rate. One thing I feel is generating employment by creating companies which I am trying to, but what else should an individual focus on ? I think it would be a good topic to share your wisdom on

[@mg.f.9023]

True! All the best! Government to start with should no tax starting businesses for at least a few years

[@kkumarbspl]

Hi, You are checking on dollar value on per capita but we also need to understand our cost of leaving is very different from US. Coffee is 10/- whereas i US in will be 200/- in INR terms.

[@kannanv8981]

Human development is not only the economy but spiritual, cultural and family values. I am sure the Indian values have grown multiple times in the last few years than in the past and comparable to other countries including USA and China. In the last decade, India"s contribution to human development like Yog have immense contribution than adding trillions of dollars to the economies.

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

India may grow fast at random points of time, but it will never become an advanced economy. To be an advanced economy you need to have a per capita gdp of $20000, a high hdi rank, strong technological and industrial prowess. Look where India stands in these parameters. Countries like Russia, Malaysia, Mexico and Brazil could not transition to advanced economies and whether China will make it is unknown. If these countries couldn't make it, then there is no way in hell India will become an advanced economy.

[@vinodhkrishnan]

Always great to be a realist and well captured Shekarji. While becoming a 5 trillion or 3rd largest is a natural factor when 140 crore people will have to consume something or the other daily , our real test comes with what we spend on innovation and education , thus setting for the big stage in real terms and luring the best talents across the globe. That's the greatest focus we need to amass our whole energy at.

[@rameshsrinivasan3072]

Dear Shekhar-ji, another insightful and data backed cut the clutter episode, thank you. I'm not an expert but economics is one topic which interests me. In my view, India's lag behind China can be attributed to our lack of investment in our people - education and health. One data point strikes this dagger deep into our heart the state of employment in the Country - AGRICULTURE is our lowest earning sector contributing to 15% of our GDP and yet employs 40% of our Workforce!

[@jakerkz]

Good analysis sir but i felt you could have added the Gdp in ppp terms topic aswell.

[@atokimruk937]

This is positive news and is one step that in a series of steps that a country needs to take. Yes, you can always look at gdp per capita to give it a negative tinge but you can also look at PPP/ capita to give it a positive tinge. As always " it depends". As a frequent business traveler across the globe, I have a favorite hobby of going to local stores and markets to check prices of everything from food to toothpaste to clothes, etc. Food prices in India are easily the lowest in the world and so are many other things. But your IPhone and BMW ( you don't need either) cost the same. A salary in Zurich or Dan Francisco looks fantastic on paper but the costs there are astronomical. Obviously just being 3 rd largest economy is not enough though it is a cause for celebration and one vital achievement. The next steps is to increase the % of middle class while increasing their incomes. Rome was not built in one day and neither will Indian prosperity. Good govt policies can expedite so that you don't need to wait long for parity. But quality of life can be enhanced dramatically when you manufacture locally and make most things affordable aligned with your currency and incomes.

[@Harsh-rf9k]

1.The gap between chinese and indian economies is not the correct comparison. The ratio of china and indian economies is the correct comparison which is decreasing now. 2.Nominal gdp figures can't show the dollar strengthening effect. The dollar index was decreasing in the first decade of this Millenium and it is increasing from the last 10-12 years consistently. For ex, Mexico has lesser nominal gdp now in dollar terms than in 2014 but if you observe real gdp growth it has increased.

[@Myanmartiger921]

Yes and no they started 10 years earlier and significantly slow down even in best case scenario we have atleast 30 years of 7 percent growth ahead with medium efforts and reforms. Our demographics are radically different

[@EliF-ge5bu]

The ratio in relation to what? China and India has roughly the same population, but the Chinese economy is almost 6 times that of India.

[@manojbharadwaj1120]

Love your way of explaining.

[@neerajbhalla1]

A great CTC. Well done for putting things in exactly the right perspective. It's time not for hosannas but to roll up our sleeves and get to work. I suggest a great topic for a follow up will be a state wise per capita income and an analysis ( and may be solutions) of why they are so.. I think a CTC on how much each state contributes and gets from the centre was done earlier..

[@prafullsingh7872]

We need to do much better and also try to attract much more manufacturing and invest lot in R&D to accelerate the quantum of growth

[@user-pz6sx7ir1p]

get to work instead of wasting time here.

[@thottankaraharidasannair6290]

Today's ctc is a bird's eye view and kudos to Print. But the fact remains that together we can come over them too.

[@arajar52]

why the purchasing power parities PPP does not find place in this discussion ?

[@surajbiradar9827]

We indians need to shed this attitude of premature celebration/self congratulations and going gaga over miniscule achievements if we ever hope to become a truly developed country. There is a marathi proverb which perfectly describes indians. "अर्ध्या हळकुंडावर पिवळे होणे" Which Means, hoping to finish your haldi ceremony with only half of a stem of turmeric"

[@arunsar7893]

The article was pointless and so is this episode of cut the clutter.

[@sprinkleroilfish]

Yup. All this talk of GDP growth an all. Ground realities are so bleak.

[@arunsar7893]

@@sprinkleroilfish Ground realities change eventually. One needs to see the delta/change rather than seeing absolutes.

[@surajbiradar9827]

Yes, because anything that doesn't praise the supreme leader 24×7 is pointless. When you don't like the facts discredit them... Nice strategy

[@arunsar7893]

@@surajbiradar9827 The article and the cut the clutter episode was about Indian economy and it's comparison with Chinese economy, which in my opinion is pointless. It's like comparing a 5 year old with a 20 year old and saying look how much taller the 20 year old is. Facts are the same, perspectives are different. And I really can't help if someone is stupid enough to conflate assessment of Indian economy and with that of the PM.

[@surajbiradar9827]

@@arunsar7893 If you read carefully, the article is actually about the false sense "everything is excellent" narrative In India when the facts say otherwise. And how this Premature celebration, the self congratulating nature of India masks rationality. For eg. When the Chinese economy was of our size, it grew by 14.23% and the average for the decade hovered around 9-10%.and we are going gaga over mediocre 5-6% growth. A country with 1.4 billion people having the same economic output as a country with 68 million people is considered as some revolutionary achievement here.

[@MyHumbleOpinion543]

India should use its population to its advantage, by using our population to get the foreign currency and thereby make our rupee stable. We should increase on manufacturing and increase our export else we are sure to be doomed. Please don't forget to compare our GDP growth with our population growth.

[@rajx7120]

China paid low wages to its workers. Can we do that in democracy? We are not even able to do labour reforms. Look at Tamil Nadu's attempt to implement 4 day, 12 hour week.

[@PrasenjeetGhosh-hr3kj]

Thank you Mr Gupta for the analysis and sharing basic insights. I agree this is a good way to put things in to perspective but I would have also expected you to caveat your analysis and critic the article. For example, this is looking at unconstrained analysis assuming everything remaining the same as it is today. The article (I haven’t read it) but assuming it is as you state it doesn’t take in to account macro economic shifts, for e.g. will the decoupling of Supply Chain from China allow it to grow in the rate it is growing or what about democratic dividends of an aging population (compared to India’s obvious advantage)… will India benefit from a greater share of manufacturing pie coming out of China… what about the benefits of an increasing tax base (more black economy getting in to the mainstream), what about the impact of digitisation and UPI etc. So good analysis, but please caveat your analysis as its is oversimplified. This is not a criticism but just another point of view. Thanks 👍

[@syrss7510]

So under Harvard(Brain), India grew by 260%(0.52 to 1.8 trillion). But under Hardwork (Muscle), India grew less than 90% (1.8 to 3.3 trillion) 😅😅

[@tomriddle4110]

its much easier to grow at a smaller base

[@syrss7510]

@@tomriddle4110 how much did Vajpayee ji's rule increase? How come China & US with much higher base, able to grow higher?

[@tomriddle4110]

@@syrss7510 because they supoort capitlaism, not attack our own buisnessmen for sake of muslims

[@syrss7510]

@@tomriddle4110 please don't accuse BJP especially Modiji of destroying our businessman for muslims. Your statement doesn't support facts. Conclusion: under Divisive Muscle power, the Indian growth was 1/3rd of United mind power.

[@alexcotton4658]

Even if we consider per capita income still the income distribution seems extremely skewed. If you remove top 5 percents income, there will be starking difference in the per capita income. Rich is getting richer poor is still poor

[@surajs5913]

Poor getting poorer? By how much? At what rate? Can you calculate by removing top 10% and then shating data?

[@ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh123]

the poor arent getting poorer, extreme poverty is nearly eliminated. this shld be obvious if u have a brain and see big Indian cities now versus 10 years ago

[@alexcotton4658]

@@ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh123 Poor is still poor, bottom 50 % peoples share in gdp was 8.6% in 2005 it was 5.9 in 2021, I am not able to share any link here, or i would have shared the data. Extreme poverty is nearly eliminated wouldn't be a statistically correct statement. 'Big Cities' does not mean no poverty. I am no genius but I can understand numbers better than you. Getting offended so easily isn't a sign of BIG BRAIN.

[@NoMustang273]

Inequality is huge I agree, and it isn't getting better but saying the poor is getting poorer is wrong. Poverty rates are going down and a higher % of the population us going from poor to higher levels. Now we need to figure out how to take those from the low income group to the middle class.

[@alexcotton4658]

@@NoMustang273Yeah Poverty index is decreasing That's a good thing however you don't really see the contribution of bottom 50 in gdp increase . I wanted to point this thing out.

[@udaymehta4375]

Absolutely right, Indian economy will become be 3rd largest in the world but average Indian will remain poor. Unnecessarily we are celebrating and patting our back.

[@rajnikantrai1318]

What was earlier gap ? Pl mention that as well . Some time Feel good …….

[@manishrastogi3959]

India is doing much better than others and as an Indian working in a global business environment … I can feel it

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

Let's be realistic. India will never be a developed country in it's lifetime. Even if India grows, it will get stuck in the middle income trap forever. India will also face major resource shortage due to overpopulation and face the wrath of climate change. India's resource base isn't large enough to support an economy too large either. Also the West and China can sabotage India in a jiffy if it grows too much. Also most Indians don't have unity and are still backward minded and tribalistic. Corruption and being unethical has become so deep rooted that it's become impossible to fix it. Also, the number of talented Indians leaving India is increasing at an alarming rate every year and many of these Indians who left India brag about India being the next big thing which is extremely comedic. The most mind boggling thing is that even if God comes down from heaven and says that India will never be a developed country, pa jeets will call him anti Indian and continue living in their fantasy of India being a developed country. To conclude, India may improve in some areas, but it always stay a corrupt 3rd world uncivilized sh8hole. Hence, forget your dreams of being a developed country pa jeet. India is an utterly failed experiment. Adios

[@PB-hf9of]

Awesome viewpoint sir ji , your view is very aligned with Pakistan, now a days Pakistan does not compare themselves with India , rather they say “see you Indians are so small compared to China” and then they say China is their friend . Except the last bit you are very close , great episode .

[@Myanmartiger921]

Let them say what they want who cares just keep growing. China is their new Allah usa is old allah they have multiple allahs.

[@sundareshanal1849]

Subhash Garg always had an open grouse against the Modi govt as he was probably sidelined. He has been niggardly and petty in not giving any credit the govt after hevfell.out of grace.

[@truthseeking6611]

And SG likes to lick MMS's a$$ any chance he gets.

[@tejesheconomics4072]

😂😂...So it is his wrong to give a reality check.....you just do Bhajan....modi set Target of indian economy will be 5 trillion in 2022 previous year😂😂.....which we will not reach till 2028.....😂😂😂😂....so all govt including modi are Chutiyas

[@mg.f.9023]

Garg has pointed out the Fact. Fact is a fact

[@amannarang9344]

He cleverly tries to pull India down , every time something good happens in India

[@tyrant_hermit]

Facts don't care about your feelings.

[@prasadsv1206]

Continuing from where I left off, per capita GDP on a PPP basis shows US is at $ 76,398.6, China at $ 21,475.60 and India at $ 8,379.1. The gap is therefore not as huge as unadjusted data shows (source: World Bank).

[@gautamlakra1131]

PPP value is the only correct way to judge ! You are correct

[@KAN443]

There is Huge Gap There itself 😂

[@sidharathjain3091]

Should have also mentioned GDP in PPP basis

[@sourabhpatil23945]

It doesn't matter just Google it we are already 3rd largest economy in PPP, yeah but Per capita is worse.

[@jkardez4794]

Don't make it too complicated for the andhbhakhts.

[@Myanmartiger921]

@@jkardez4794andh namazis think sharia is science.

[@Myanmartiger921]

@@skarr7985not pandit just 1 pandit. A retarded 🤡

[@JitzyJT]

you mean per capita? in purchasing power parity (ppp) we are doing good.....

[@rohitmalaga9369]

The best economics class I have ever attended, thank you professor 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

[@naturemeditation3751]

You will definitely fail your next economics exam be it macro or micro

[@bhai857]

better study hard, and get enrolled in a good college.

[@neokarma5736]

Fun Fact: Modiji took Indian economy from $1.8T to $3.39T (expected to be about $3.6T by 2024). That is just about 2times growth. Manmohan singh delivered over 3 times growth of GDP in his 10yr tenure. We do not give enough credit to Manmohan Singh ji.

[@paddysubramaniam1481]

Don't compare with China and who (however rich) wants to live there without freedom of thought, speech and action !!! India is a democratic country and under those principles its economy is growing rapidly...that is what people want👍👍👍

[@wingkeungkong415]

You are speaking rubbish Chinese enjoy the best living standard. N freedom in its history You know nothing about China And you want to comment on china You are very funny person

[@Tom-fw6bx]

Indian growth is not sustainable due to the low iq, 82.

[@akashrocks825]

Thanks to additionally powered ministers that matters we are a vibrant economy

[@sectumsempra9837]

you joking right ?

[@SumitPalTube]

​@@sectumsempra9837Whatever he is smoking seems to be really good.

[@LibertyUnion-uz7qz]

​​@@SumitPalTubeIndian economy grew at 7.2% in 2022, beating IMF's predictions of 6.8%, and it's own government's predictions of 7%, when all of the other countries fell below IMF predictions. This was done during a global recession.

[@berserkhorimiya]

@@LibertyUnion-uz7qz this is happening on back of increased government investments via borrowing which isn't that difficult to do, our private investments and FDI as percentage of GDP are a fraction of what they ought to be at this stage.

[@bloodwargaming3662]

​@@berserkhorimiyafdi is falling to the ground aldready , manufacturing fell 13% this year

[@kirandeepchakraborty7921]

The government's fiscal discipline throughout the pandemic years has been the primary driver of India's Economic growth in the last few quarters.

[@GajendraNarolia]

Ur assumption putting Keynesian theory upside down !!

[@kiranmaddu8006]

Such a brilliant episode!