Data on which GDP Calculated “A Major Concern” & Soon GDP Could Become “Unreliable”: Pronab Sen

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In a comprehensive interview to discuss concerns about how India calculates its GDP and whether GDP conveys the full picture of the state of the economy and, in particular, the condition of the majority of the country’s population, India’s former Chief Statistician, who is also the present Chairman of the Standing Committee on Statistics, has said the data on which India’s GDP is calculated is “a major concern” and, he added, if this is not corrected soon India’s GDP growth figures could become “unreliable”. The key concern identified by Prof. Pronab Sen is the way the consumer price index and the wholesale price index are calculated and, specifically, the basket of goods on which they are based. This basket has not changed for 12 years, during which period the consumption patterns of the Indian population have changed dramatically. Therefore, the baskets of goods on which WPI and CPI are based are now almost comprehensively out of date.
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[@ismailahmed1588]

Just to point out,I am an MD in US for 4 decades.I consider myself well informed.Prof Sen is much more comprehensible that Larry Summers etc.Makes me proud.

[@udayabose2357]

Kudos to Karan Thapar for continuing to raise the real issues of concern and providing us with well-informed and professional discussions on these matters.

[@BS-nv4bx]

Excellent discussion! The takeaway is that the organized sector is progressing by leaps and bounds while the unorganized sector needs massive upliftment, at present it is languishing and dying. If equating the country with the body, it is like ensuring that the heart is functioning at full capacity while the liver is being allowed to be overtaken by cirrhosis.

[@alcinnovations]

When farm reform, labor reform and land reform of ANY kind is met with *internationally coordinated* protests and riots, how can the unorganized sector grow out of the 1970s? If all the low-income masses want is reservation, freebies and government doles, it's time the organized (tax paying) sector take its own trajectory and leave behind the socialist mobs to their own fate.

[@balur104]

Thank you so much to Prof Pronab Sen and Karan Thapar ji Wonderful to hear these gentlemen

[@bushrashaikh5240]

I can't keep calm... Its my favv economist!! Thank u ❤️

[@shirishpanwalkar]

Extremely insightful and enlightening interview! Thanks a ton team Wire and Karan sir!

[@kuldipkumarsuri]

Much awaited interview of Prof Pronob Sen.. I watched it twice , Thanks @thewire Team...🙏 my heart is crying while listening these two gentlemen 💔

[@truth7653]

Prof Sen top man sir unbelievable knowledge which comes from being highly educated on the subject. Govt. should consult people like him, Dr Amartaya Sen, Dr Kaushik Basu.

[@kvishnup]

What an educative discussion 👏 👏...the kind that we don't get to see on TV anymore.

[@emrao7732]

This guy deserves to be the Chief Economic Adviser to IMF & WB!!!

[@nasirqureshi1785]

Mr Sen logical and brilliant.

[@ceva7727]

It is a pleasure to listen to Prof Sen

[@mathewkurian3576]

Great interview. Tells you not to conclude without seeing a fuller picture through multiple indicators. What we do when we run a business too.

[@davidkrupadanam1179]

GDP 7.8 for quarter 1 was questioned by most Indian economists including Prof. Arun Kumar JNU who argues that GDP growth was 1.0 or zero

[@user-pz6sx7ir1p]

you are correct. All these numbers are fake. There is nobody traveling on trains, planes, buses etc. no body is buying any vehicles, iphones, laptops. Nobody is consuming any electricity, nobody bought gold/nobody traveled outside, no construction of expressway, highways, no new housing etc. All this is fake news.

[@berserkhorimiya]

That figure is too low to fathom, that's a recession for all intents and purposes.

[@abhilash4479]

After long time Mr Sen is back ❤

[@girdharrathi6728]

Prof doesn't even remember human development etc!

[@girdharrathi6728]

Karan, don't tax the conscience of an old, retired bureaucrat.

[@hometv-sr]

Such a pleasure listening to these amazing people in their interviews. Both the interviewer and the interviewee were simply a pleasure listening to. Thanks Karan ❤

[@ismailahmed1588]

Exceptional illuminating discussion.Prof Sen Thank you.and Karan As always well thought questions.Shabash.God bless you.Overall depressing.Prof is right when he says lost opportunity.

[@shuvankr]

Given that all consumer articles are taxed via GST, the expenditure approach data should be much more reliable than production approach. When Income sector is vastly unquanitified, the production data from those irregular sectors are unreliable also. Post-Gst we were supposed to move to expenditure based GDP calculations from production based calculations. Given these technical nitty gritty, GDP growth doesn't reflect that lives and economic woes of 80 crore (who need free rations) who live in informal sectors of the country.

[@adityataur3295]

I completely agree with the tag line is Incisive Questions, Insightful Responses. This line completely defines the show 👍👍

[@NurulIslam-kc2jl]

Topic is absolutely important for we all citizens of India❤

[@pushpendergusain4262]

We should be more concerned about providing better medical, educational and other basic facilities to common people instead of dreaming of becoming a developed country. Many people from developed countries come to India to get medical treatment.

[@h79guf]

Listening to Prof. Sen & Karan is a masterclass in stats, just focus and you’d understand everything. No slides, graphs to see and still you’d get everything. Concept clarity and pacing is key. His students must be lucky to have him as a teacher. Thanks, look forward to more of him here.

[@h79guf]

Just saw Prof Sen’s bio. His doctoral students went on to be deans and prof themselves at top US universities.

[@vvramanan1]

You are thinking of Pranab Kumar Sen of UNC Chapel Hill, a different person.

[@h79guf]

@@vvramanan1thanks for correcting me. Pronab Sen it is. Still a worthy teacher I would say. Thanks

[@r4v1n]

As always enlightening

[@ramdasmadhiyalla4058]

Mr.Sen is forgetting that this government's data is collected from temples and beggars. Ram bharose😢

[@Life.is.a.library]

This is the real debate/issue that citizen should be caring about.

[@GuessWhat107]

Very informative. Very telling, in fact.

[@udayabose2357]

The size of the economy does matter but human development indices matter much more.

[@WerewolfAsh]

India has a great opportunity of self employed in selling pakodas and trinkets. 🤪

[@nobufrancis685]

You can say that again 😅😂🤣

[@jeeja.k.sukumaran4628]

Beautiful conversation ❤

[@anuragbanerjee2879]

The basket of goods always changes but slower than prices, otherwise change will mean nothing .. pronab should know how indices are calculated its very standard.. this is devious

[@pvaish]

Karan stayed true to his nature ... a master class in deception and language chicanery to mix the issues with a sole intent on somehow show the current government's fault ... The poor experts either never discover the game, or sometime ignore them.

[@prasantadatta5151]

By misleading people may give political dividends but miss the bus of economic progress of the country.Thanks both for such a clear impression.

[@udayabose2357]

Thanks

[@Dimuk1984]

Modi says, we will become 4th or 3rd largest economy and we all go, wah wah sabash. Please remember, our GDP growth is without real growth, without development, without jobs. We get so obsessed with this GDP narrative. It's time we see the overall growth of a country. Improving GDP alone won't make us a developed country.

[@Prince-cg1eu]

Congress ke time vo bhi nahi bad rahi thi. Now BJP is in power everyone is discussing on GDP calculation methodology. Congress ke time me kya sahi se gdp calculate ho rahi thi.

[@abhishekchhazed8974]

The conversation is really top notch. Only problem is, the host is just waiting on every step for Mr Pronab to say that the numbers are misleading so he can gain his 2 second eureka moment.

[@patvikram]

Superb Karan!! Best wishes

[@AlokAsthana1954]

This is Modi government. What’s not fake with ALL of his claims?

[@user-pz6sx7ir1p]

yep, after 2014 you realized that your neighbour was your father.

[@mostlymi9963]

​@@user-pz6sx7ir1p start watching instead of looking for comments to troll. You.may learn better.

[@user-pz6sx7ir1p]

and you still don't know that your neighbour was your father.@@mostlymi9963

[@smiritigoswamiclass-5.398]

We are always with neutral and intellectual media and Karan Thapar.❤😂🎉😢😮😅😊.

[@adityavyas8622]

Please do more interviews on economy there a lot of us who want to hear nuanced perspectives like prof. Sen’s.

[@arkaprabhmandal1248]

...and such an honest person

[@adamsinghlealadhar6234]

If proper data is unavailable we could be miles out of our estimation, especially as the majority of income and expenditure is in the villages.

[@AV-db3ep]

Pakodawallahs , your Majesty !

[@Am.kumar9955]

Every data gathering method was point on before 2014 but after that it has become matter of concern what a joke these people are. Even if the statistics should change but it will definitely show we are improving. Period

[@mostlymi9963]

You completely missed the point and jumoed to your biased conclusion. Signs of a bhakt.

[@Am.kumar9955]

@@mostlymi9963 when can't counter points they aim for baseless arguments. Calling someone bhakt shows who is biased. Call what you like I don't give a fuck

[@Prince-cg1eu]

Congress ke time vo bhi nahi bad rahi thi. Now BJP is in power everyone is discussing on GDP calculation methodology. Congress ke time me kya sahi se gdp calculate ho rahi thi.

[@arvindverma2213]

Top class..

[@neorock2223]

I really enjoyed the interview, and I would say prof very effectively refuted Mr Thapar's agenda to prove that 1. GDP data is way incorrect and purposely flawed. 2. Mr Thapar had to put a gloomy twist to the end which was no way proved during the entire interview. Here is the reason why I am saying that ... 1. He tried to prove that GDP data is purposefully flawed, which prof explained that not the case... That's how it's best calculated in our circumstances. Need of the hour is to improve the underline data, improve the indices - but it it's not purposefully manipulated. 2. All attempts to counter GDP data with unemployment, MNREGA, free food schemes etc fall flat on the face. 3. When brought up a point of PM's announcement, he tried to equate it with the world bank GDP per capita numbers, which may or may not be the intention of pm, but he got the answer that this number can be met, he changed goal post to UK's GDP per capita. - as an argument he doesn't know or mention even with such high GDP per capita what is the rate of unemployment in UK, what number of people/family live on govt funding etc.... and at large do we just need to stick to these numbers or look into becoming a better welfare state? 4. When he tried to over and over push the conclusion that higher GDP does not mean a better life for poor people, the answer is - we don't know, can't say - may or may not but. But for that look at other indicator and strategy. The whole interview did not prove that we are going in wrong direction - not at all. If not improved GDP and better economy, what other means you can provide better livelihood to the poorest or poors? Yes, better strategies, better data, better indices - but they should be in context of India, not looking outwards. And only can be achieved by better economic growth. Anyways, very informative discussion. Thank you both.🙏

[@mostlymi9963]

What I underatand is Prof Sen has been saying exactly the same thing for years. Hes maintained successive governments have been exploting incorrect data for their political goals and the noise has been building up. Cleaning up of data is not happening. Hope you underatand how precarious our position is as policies are made based on this data, unless you believe there is some great data with government which they use. They dont.

[@arbitram]

You haven't quite understood what Prof Sen is saying

[@alburj1]

KarTha kept prodding, not getting an answer he liked. And then more...and more. Lage Raho Munna Bhai

[@2011ukluk]

Its funny how Professor Sen is not saying what Karan thapar wants him to say. Thanks to Professor for conveying us the healthy and genuine concerns on calculation of GDP which is done all around the world. Karan Thapar's intention is always clear and politically motivated. His sales pitch of fearless and independent journalism is a farce.

[@h79guf]

He’s always been super critical and incisive against ALL interviewees, see the history. He never licks up asking softball questions. Some of the retired SC judges like Justice Lokur were surprised he didn’t spare them for their conduct. Does his homework well and doesn’t spare a good argument.

[@2011ukluk]

@@h79guf Well thats what he wants everybody to think to push his points. His digging and prodding are always limited to against the right winger or those who he thinks belongs to the right wing. He is clearly leftist and politically motivated. In short, there is no objectivity in his journalism. Almost all news channels these days are just worth hearing but not listening or digesting for an ideal citizen.

[@indersinghmalik8359]

13800 might also be gone for development countries would be amended more 18ooo

[@rahulkapur5269]

When WPI was 14% we were underestimating the GDP using the same logic .

[@chance2526]

I am presently at USA. If the.GDP of lndia is such high, why 1 USD is equal to Rs.83 presently and why growth of US economy is lower than the growth of lndian economy. There is something terribly wrong at the calculation.

[@girdharrathi6728]

Is this what has been the practice even in the last 76 years?

[@mostlymi9963]

Yes, I had some experience and income data is very unreliable. Even productiom data is delayed and often incorrect. The concern is this mess has multiplied.

[@spritualist6519]

Experts say the same thing about China.. They say China's GDP is actually 60% of what China claims it to be around 8 to 10 trn. not 17 trn.

[@trinity4248]

Lol those are said only by US experts 🤣😂 India's data can be said to be fudged bcz India still being a 4T economy corresponds to 4% of World trade while China already is 30%..

[@samsonpoon5268]

Pls come to china annd explore this country, you will get the realy chinese level of life and ture GDP, don't beilve the MODI mediia.

[@THETRIVIALTHINGS]

india should focus on GDP per capita more.

[@debashisganguly1245]

Brilliant interview

[@SaravanaPrabu]

Finally got answer to why rupee is perennially week, apart from cad due to import more than export and corruption by nirav modi,malya types , the reason 60-80% indians idle is eye opener, I used to see men loitering in benches in chennai outskirts and women sitting simply for nrega etc, now I am able to connect the dots

[@pratikshah6111]

Inequality will remain but unemployment does not exist in the country because of the long scarcity of manpower

[@AlexBen]

Be it error in either methodology or the data the result is 💩, it's the result that matters. When the govt have no data on anything except religious hatred everything is a 💩 in the country.

[@alburj1]

IMF agrees with 7.8 but now it has to be ignored. When GDP of 2004-14 is produced , that's absolutely correct!! But its all wrong now. Hai hum gareeb ho gaye, tabah ho gaye....bachao bachao

[@lostinthebluecity]

if you have listened carefully.. you must have not missed that the COVID 19 changed the scene in the past years as discussed in reason 3.

[@mostlymi9963]

Video dekh kar comment kiya karo to shayad kuchch seekh jao. Padhe likhe anpadh mat bano.

[@sudiptasamaddar8149]

Yes the first time that India reached 4T economy is a matter of grave concern. We as Indians should not let the country to grow in such large measures.

[@anuragbanerjee2879]

😜😜😜

[@muralikf]

How reliable is data..when everything is exaggerated...

[@SheshankReddyS]

What is a "4T economy" ? What does it mean? And who mentioned it in this interview?

[@harishprabhakar9744]

1980 china and india equal both in economy and population 2023 China 19 trillion economy India 4 trillion economy What our politicians do last 43 years😢

[@muralikf]

@@harishprabhakar9744 ab ye mat pucho..ab sarakr kuch nhi karega ..galti janta ka hai..atma nirbhar bano..ye hi jawab milega ..andh bhakt, bjp se

[@vanditayadav8806]

Thanks for giving the correct information about the G.D.P. of the country and the present government is increasing unemployment, depression amongst the educated youths and what say about uneducated people and the future of the poor people of the country may be worst.,

[@drshokatalisaiyed4733]

In 1947 USA $one= one indian rupee. Now more than Rs. 83/ is does not depend on GDP!!!!!!

[@anuragbanerjee2879]

GDP is computed in USD ... for international comparisons ... but I guess your question was more political than technical

[@pamtam1]

GDP is calculated in both dollars and rupee but because of huge devaluation of rupee, continuously, the higher GDP in rupee terms doesn’t really makes as much sense. And it gives a false picture. Runaway inflation could give a very, very high GDP but actually that will not mean high productivity or growth.

[@anuragbanerjee2879]

@@pamtam1 you are right but the figure is in usd

[@mostlymi9963]

It does. If ₹ keeps devaluing, we can achieve super high GDP in ₹ even if we stay exactly where we are.

[@anuragbanerjee2879]

@@mostlymi9963That is why the figure is in usd ... you are not the 1st genius to think about it!!!

[@hvindia]

Let the guest speak

[@NurulIslam-kc2jl]

Always an awesome interview ❤

[@vivekra]

54:50 It seems the world bank threshold for qualifying as a developed country is $13,200 TODAY. If so, how does this part of the discussion make any sense considering that this threshold will increase greatly in the next 25 years i.e. by 2047.

[@ssnsarmachalla7352]

GDP calculation system is wrong . Items should be categorised to workout properly

[@girdharrathi6728]

What do you mean by "the truth" ! Lovely

[@sarabjits7679]

IMF / world bank +++ are also giving similar gdp figures as rbi : so all are on same page

[@rahulkapur5269]

Gst collections growing at 13% , direct tax collections growing @ 17% . Probably nominal GDP is growing in excess of 12-13%

[@bmniac]

This is a political not an economic view. To this day most Indian economists have not admitted the failure of planning in India which kept us poor.

[@oriondoublecrossed]

Still running deficit. But then americans run deficit too so whats the problem? The problem is they run deficit on purpose. To give more dollars to china and russia. More and more in order to lure them which actually strengthens and has strengthen the dollar. Thats why china is not so keen on going against the dollar. As america gives them many billions of dollars every year through deficit. Chinese capitalist have alot of dollars. While india's trade deficit is bad as rupee isnt a global currency neither is india a superpower unfathomable to many.

[@2011ukluk]

No system of measuring GDP is perfect. For example a lot of critics think that Chinese GDP is greatly inflated as a large portion of it consists of what they call as digging and filling up holes. Building a lot of unnecessary infrastructure and unoccupied real estate thereby employing man and resources can be considered. We can always try to calibrate data frequently like the Professor said to make it more accurate in the Indian context.

[@samsonpoon5268]

Pls come to china annd explore this country, you will get the realy chinese level of life and ture GDP, don't beilve the MODI mediia.

[@2011ukluk]

@@samsonpoon5268 @samsonpoon5268 No doubt that China has done great in the past few decades but you're not getting the whole point. For now they should be worried about the real state crysis and decoupling efforts by other developed countries. Preety positive that they'll come out stronger and more matured.

[@ramd4392]

👍👍✨

[@mukhtarshah1965]

we go for it but we cannot achieve it

[@francisp9509]

Now that Sen is connected with the government, he is hesitant to criticize the government.

[@farhanmerchant2629]

Ceteris Paribus, at $45,000 of GDP per capita, the total GDP would be roughly $63 trilion (3 times the size of US). Even at $13,000 GDP per capita the size of economy will equal that of present day US's. To have that growth, not only NIFTY 50s but very small businesses will have to pioneer technologies that almost everyone in this world will use. I don't underestimate but almost every one must be allowed to bet and fall freely so that some of us could contribute to that brobdingnagian target. That will mean rewriting of several laws and letting alot of nuts and bolts free which given the state of affairs makes me want to appear hopeful.

[@knarayanan4039]

Funny thing is, it never occurred to these gentlemen that GDP is not the correct indicator of development of an economy during UPA time. KT never brought up the other parameters into discussion then. Now that Modi govt is in place (much against the preference of KT) and started registering acceptable level of GDP growth, they have suddenly discovered GDP is not the appropriate indicator and started doing granular analysis. Hail their impartiality!

[@drshokatalisaiyed4733]

Jobless growth is good for labour surplus democracies nation of the world!!!!!

[@mytube20oneone]

India will become a developed nation definitely after few centuries 🎉😅

[@rafiulhuq7688]

😂😂

[@tadepalliprasad]

Where does percapita income fit in ?

[@PG-jv5nw]

They are talking about people who dont understand their language. GDP data tells us that the train of growth and prosperity is at speed. You need to decide if you want to board it or remain where you are. India is not meant for the bottom 80% around 112 crore people. It's meant only for the top 28 crore people. It has super rich, rich, middle, and low income people. In terms of society, it's for upper caste and top caste in OBC, Dalit & ST. Naye bharat ko Salaam !!!

[@pamtam1]

👌

[@mostlymi9963]

True but I suggest we dont equate caste with economic classes please. Its by being data driven and objective we counter forces that rely on lies. Not by making our own noise.

[@SayedRahaman-px3jo]

🖤

[@alburj1]

Global Definition be dambed. KT definitions are the way to go😅😅😅

[@sailendradewan]

In 2047, the criterion for a developed (high income) country won't be $13,200 per capita GDP. This number by the World Bank keeps increasing regularly.

[@pamtam1]

Exactly

[@muralikf]

It us very unfortunate..people wasting their time discussing when input data itself is doubtful..

[@mostlymi9963]

See it was doubtful for years, now its politicized. Poorly.educated people cannot understand the difference. They never did.

[@drshokatalisaiyed4733]

Negative data is good for the real picture in the labour surplus democracies nation!!!

[@daviddsilva5756]

The summary is Bharat lives in true lies without Truth not only in employment but in every sector you name it.

[@manujohn99]

GDP - Greed Domination on Public

[@vidyavarier8206]

Can't the GDP be calculated over different class: high, middle and low, to give a better idea in terms of poverty?

[@gigachad_6862]

So 20% at least of our gpd is overestimated as it is measured from whole sale index rather than producer index. If we count 10% margin of whole sale dealer and 10% cost of transportation then 20% or more of our GDP is overestimated 😅. If Indian govt is saying 3.73 tn dollar economy, it means India has real GDP at 2.98 tn dollar 😅

[@siddharthmeena7643]

4:15

[@kalyansinghal5557]

Can Professor Sen give the data on income and wealth distribution in India, say by deciles?

[@dipakbose2677]

Top 10 percent of the population own 75 percent of the assets of India.

[@mostlymi9963]

​​​​@@dipakbose267777% that is what Pranad Mukherji started and Chidambaram as well as Modi accelarated as there is absolute majority. Both governments made the same policies. What it will achieve and for whom is a different subject too large for a comment.

[@peterjohn.v.8258]

The basic point that is discussed in this interview of GDP growth not reflecting the real situation in the country - This would have been relevant even before Chowkidar era. Why was this not discussed/addressed then? Is it that Chowkidar Sena is using GDP growth for propaganda that this point has gained relevance?

[@h79guf]

12 Saal purana data use karti hai sarakaar

[@srinivassistla5806]

I honestly wish mrs FM of india and her chawalla boss should try to understand what is national economy mean.

[@arungupta3509]

It is not as though the economic figures fail to reflect people’s reality only now. Second, after saying that the unorganized sector data is out of date, you are talking about recent self-employment figures - but that is unorganized sector, and you said that data is out of date.

[@muralikf]

2047 me 13200 dolalr nhi rahega..inflation consider karne se..40000 dollar ke as pass rahega developed country ka..guru ji..agar 10 sal me double sochenge tho..

[@SarthakBhatia]

TCS INFY are laying off people in lakhs. Who will bring the foreign investment in this country?

[@manjunathae3524]

Incorrect statement vast majority are middle class

[@amanesium]

Abhijit Banarjee & Amartya Sen real ID se aaoo, Alfred Marshall RIP 😅

[@influencingworld1928]

Also note that these people will have lakhs of share in Indian stock market because they will be hoping of growing their money because they know if indias gdp grows so is indias stock market despite their bullshit i am betting on indias growth because i want to be rich

[@newyorkskier]

I am not sure about all this GDP mumbo jumbo. India has no reliable means of estimating anything. So these are figures that they pull of a hat. Everyone I talk to in India is struggling. No jobs, underpaid jobs, difficulty to pay to put food on the table, having to mortgage women's jewels to pay medical bills or to pay a mortgage on the house. Either a few people are making an insane amount of money or the whole thing is a fiction

[@sm9214]

Better this expert confines to what data he had followed.

[@EmanuelJames-es8sn]

Mr Sen is scared

[@davidkrupadanam1179]

Call Prof Arun Kumar JNU for a unbiased analysis of GDP. Pronob Sen is ambiguous and afraid to speak the truth

[@peterjohn.v.8258]

Can Indian Economic academia/professionals come out with measurements that suit Indian situations? I think we always copy solutions from the West, which may not be ideal for our situations.