The Semiconductor Bust. Still Coming?

[@Asianometry]

Enjoy the video.

[@RafaelHabegger]

ok thanks.

[@Palmit_]

thank you Jo(h)n. You are the best youtuber for research, fact-finding, documenting and humour. Really appreciated :)

[@b.6603]

This is incredible. Yesterday youtube recommended your previous video on this topic and wondered exactly what has changed since. Thanks for the amazing research and content.

[@nescius2]

done that, thanks

[@jacksonpark5001]

dont tell me how to live my life!

[@shamsulazhar]

I love that the volume is so much louder (more normal) in recent videos. Not a fan of ASMR narration. The content is outstanding as usual.

[@janeblogs324]

But why did it take so long?

[@washedtoohot]

He is shouting

[@iphgfqweio]

@@janeblogs324 because not many dare to mix everything to -6dB at first because it seems too loud, hearing their own voice

[@Asianometry]

My voice hasn't been well lately. Sorry if it sounds a little strained.

[@davidwhite2011]

Just wonder about how ASML saying that they weren't going to get all the machines out they promised until 2024.

[@johndoh5182]

Well, that works pretty well then because that's when these fabs being built by Intel and TSMC are due to be fitted with the equipment, so perfect timing huh? It might cause a delay of 3 - 6 months but in the general scheme of things won't have much of an impact.

[@davidwhite2011]

@@johndoh5182 Except they promised them for the end of this year. So that doesn't work.

[@jamescollins4788]

I've just started following Asianometry (the name threw me off when I first ran across it), and I've watched about a dozen of the videos. I find John's descriptions and explanations very useful and his style very approachable. Thanks, John.

[@law-abiding-criminal]

An episode about RISC-V would be interesting.

[@JackTheOrangePumpkin]

Yes. Is it still relevant or not relevant yet?

[@shadow7037932]

Agreed. It has potential to unseat ARM down the road in specialist areas like network switches within the next 5-7 years. Don't think it'll make a dent in smartphones unless Apple gets to the point they see the ARM license and ISA as too inflexible for their future SoC designs.

[@shadow7037932]

@Zaydan Naufal Indeed. But it can make in ways. I know of one small specialist industrial test equipment manufacturer that's doing R&D with RISCV right now with final product expected in 2024 Q2. So it's starting already at least in the low volume specialist areas.

[@ContraVsGigi]

It's already in some controllers, so it is coming.

[@nicholassadaka]

Thanks. BTW the shoe manufacturing episode was enlightening. Keeps things fresh :)

[@abowden556]

I liked it too!

[@hjups]

There is a possibility that the extra logic capacity could be taken up by 3D stacking. If there's a need to grow vertically, then your area requirement scales with the number of layers. So this may be the perfect time to be adding logic capacity. And if it's cheap enough, the extra capacity could always be taken up by SRAM, like AMD's V-Cache (again, 3D stacking though).

[@johndoh5182]

3D stacking isn't the issue. It's getting to these smaller nodes that use much less energy. Intel's new fabs are supposed to be 2nm. What TSMC is building is supposed to be 5nm, but at the same time they're fitting fabs in Taiwan for 3nm. TSMC N3 is about triple the density of N7, and that's what AMD is on right now with Zen 3. Stacking is something that can help, but that's not why all these companies are building new fabs. Intel and TSMC want to be part of the BOOM cycles that gets created when they put out these new nodes. It will be unprecedented.

[@hjups]

​@@johndoh5182 I wasn't suggesting that 3D stacking was an issue, just that it could easily eat up any production surplus. In some cases, it may be more advantageous to use 4 layer 3D stacking at 7nm than move to 3nm, especially if the price is right.

[@TJ-vh2ps]

Hey, I loved your shoe video! Keep doing what you find interesting: your audience will get catch up over time. Think of the semiconductor videos as the gateway into broader economics, manufacturing, and supply-chain videos. Never thought I’d be fascinated by supply-chains (for example), but here we are. 😄

[@arthurdavies3518]

Ev market is growing with Logic and dRam. It takes over 100 GB of Dram per EV. Seems like everything (Logic/Dram) is increasing with faster broadband. Great video !

[@professorcrabs926]

Here is my obligatory yell at you on the comments. Good update. I feel I’ll have to rewatch as it was late at night for first viewing. Love your style and research you put into all your topics. Cheers!

[@calebrigley9780]

The most knowledgeable and informed deer I know of in the semiconductor industry.

[@elkcircle7245]

Terrific and very honest humour in the opening! And personally I'm a big fan of your narration style.

[@punditgi]

Always look forward to your videos and commentary. Keep up your fine work! 😃

[@qix4172]

Nice video - AWS grew 36.5% YoY per their q1-2022 report. MS Azure grew 46%, and Google Cloud revenue grew 43.8% YOY. Small slowdown for each all things considered, and still enviable growth rates given how most other growth stocks and even some big tech are getting slammed. The big cloud providers should provide good business for some time it seems? (And in terms of marketshare: "According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2021, AWS represented 33% of the cloud infrastructure market, Azure held 22%, while just 9% of cloud spending was on GCP.")

[@PlanetFrosty]

You had put so much soul into the shoe video! It was interesting and insightful.

[@rahhjur]

Long time viewer and also a big fan of the semi ecosystem. Great video, but I think the one major flaw in your argument is that you argued with the assumption that datacenter growth only received a major boost because of COVID. If you look at the decade prior to COVID, datacenters was the primary growth driver for Amazon, Google, and Microsoft from the onset. If you look at the growth rates from COVID and also compare it to pre COVID, the growth rates have been consistently 30-60% (depending if you're talking about AWS/Azure/GC) for nearly a decade. It COULD slow down coming out of pandemic, but there's no historical evidence that the pandemic even affected it's original trajectory.

[@rahhjur]

I do agree with you that TSMC and Samsung's customer ecosystem will remain strong, while fabs producing more mature nodes might see some commoditization and destruction to their profit margins. Intel is a gamble, they may join the ranks of TSMC and Samsung as a foundry, but I also think they're underestimating the total cost (of producing in western nations) and over-optimistic on their roadmap.

[@dekev7503]

Its not just cloud demand. Automation, edge computing and electrification of transportation, smart medicine, smart and connected housing would provide extremely strong demands in the next coming decades.

[@BoonTee]

Thanks for the analysis, I am here to say thanks, not yelling at you. TSMC provided good guidance for the remaining of 2022. Next year onwards will be more uncertain, I don't think anyone can see that far away.

[@vikramekshinge9059]

I regularly watch ur videos, u provide great insight, keep up the good work man 😃

[@free_spirit1]

Hi Asianometry I'm always really impressed when you make a video about a topic that is not your field. In the spirit of teaching a man how to fish, how do you approach new topics, research them and create a knowledge base for yourself so quickly? Maybe an idea for a video?

[@gwharton68]

Its always enjoyable to see and hear some sanity in this crazy mixed up world. Thank you.

[@apidas]

I'm yelling at you now for how amazing your content is!

[@artemiygolden2853]

I really loved your Taiwan making shoes episode!

[@qcsupport2594]

There's a tidal flood of demand for SSDs being barely held back by price. (For example: some desktop computers are still being sold with 1TB hdds, just waiting for the price of SSDs to reach a tipping point.) Couldn't any glut of memory production capacity be applied to that latent demand for SSDs? (It's NAND vs. DRAM, but still.)

[@nathangamble125]

It looks like 1TB SSDs will soon match the price of 1TB HDDs (to OEMs).

[@michaelf.2449]

@@nathangamble125 honestly man it's pretty really really close even at the retail end. I can buy a 1tb Seagate hdd for $47 and a 1tb SSD for 60$ish... If it comes down 5$ retail price the OEMs has no excuse to continue with hard drives

[@Ironclad17]

That's likely more of a marketing issue. For oem and si customers the larger capacity storage is easier to market then the performance of an ssd.

[@brandonv8721]

Electronics engineer since 2006, seen a few cycles and they all kick my butt

[@leyasep5919]

No yelling from me. You did quite a good job again.

[@bernadmanny]

Great video, I also liked the Taiwan shoe making video. Also love, but don't fight the haters, as it boosts engagement which is good for the algorithm.

[@RabbitEarsCh]

I really liked the shoe video! I hope it came across in the comments there as well, but I always find it so fascinating when so much of an industry is quietly dominated by one dedicated group that found a niche decades ago and exploited the hell out of it.

[@kayseboy5678]

I recently saw that before the last memory crash, the cap ex of memory to logic was 60 to 30. Due to consolidation and massive Logic cap ex this trend is now exactly reversed with logic spending 60% of cap ex and memory 30. Could that not make Memory less vulnerable than logic to a supply glut?

[@johndoh5182]

Yeah he doesn't understand what's happening. First there's a shortage of memory for what's about to happen because in the world of computing the move is away from DDR4 to DDR5, so the demand for memory is going to be great for the next few years.

[@hikosaemon]

Love your channel and watch all your vids. Not sure I agree with your take on Cloud being due to level off - Cloud infrastructure is different to SaaS companies like Netflix that offer services using Cloud. Use of cloud by total addressable market is still astronomically low - most IT is still run more expensive and less efficient on-prem, so unlike mobile, Cloud is a long way from saturation, or even growth leveling out - I think this is why so many players still think it is not too late to get into it (IBM, Oracle, etc). Not saying it will be the hottest or most rapid growing driver for semiconductors but hard to see that growth dropping off for a while. Still, that is also a prediction so... :)

[@tristanwegner]

An interesting video would be a follow the products from a fab that produced for a long time. E.g. what is produced on them after the leading edge moved somewhere else, and what is produced at the end of the fabs life.

[@gregorysember2164]

Thanks for being brave enough to share your opinion.

[@_monti142]

the show vidoe was interesting to me, i watch all of your video because of how thoroughly you go into topics and economic behind them, you nade me realise not all government actions are automatically bad

[@anupamjain3152]

Another amazing episode. Thank you for sharing!

[@edp5226]

i appreciate you sharing your knowledge, thank you.

[@Liangzhuotang]

2 months after this video the world is bracing for a recession, a huuuuge crypto bust, and a super glut of gpu's. Man, the world changes so fast that I'm witnessing things at a pace that I never could imagine.

[@hitmusicworldwide]

Consider Apple silicon integrating "unified" memory on the SOC, shipping millions of devices that can't expand dram throughout the life of the product. And they are not looking back. Most likely, this design will become the norm for laptops and a lot of desktops even outside of Apple.

[@aravindpallippara1577]

there are active projects that aim to counter it though - the framework laptops or fairphones

[@2beJT]

@@aravindpallippara1577 but the masses wont bother with fairphone or framework laptops.. they'll go to big box store and buy an iphone or an HP laptop or whatever.

[@jpierce2l33t]

God I hope not! Luckily, Apple has been the only large hardware limiter for some time, in various aspects...hopefully others never follow suit! One of the many reasons why I'll never own an Apple product

[@km5405]

it does offer some extreme benefits - so its something im far less jaded about. Making better integrated RAM can offset the need of execessive amounts of extra ram less necessary. apple's new SOC smokes a I9 when it comes to things like compiling code using way less power.

[@davidgunther8428]

I thought it was bad too, but realized phones, video cards, game consoles and maybe 30% of laptops already have soldered memory and no one thinks twice of it (except about laptops). It's PCs and servers that are the exception. Servers will probably keep RAM slots for a long time, but who knows about PCs. If HBM is added to the CPU, will there even be a reason for RAM if storage gets fast enough?

[@charlesmanning3454]

Semiconductors is the only human endeavor to suffer a surplus of logic. On the other hand, humanity has constant glut of reminiscence, nostalgia and other cheap error prone memory. ;-)

[@ECTCalvin]

Just wanted to say that you've got a shout out in the Aquired podcast, on their latest episode about NVIDIA

[@johnhorner5711]

30 years ago semiconductor growth was driven by the personal computer, more recently it has been driven by the smartphone, I think the next massive sector will be automotive. Electric cars probably have 10 times the silicon content as do conventional ICE cars thanks to everything which is required for power management, charging and so on. Most of these functions are not neccessarily in need of the bleeding edge lithographic technologies, but they do eat up a lot of wafer area. That 26% recent growth in automotive is just a preview of things to come. Electric cars are still a very small percentage of the automotive market, but they are highly likely to get to at least 50% market share over the next five to ten years. Another profitable growth market (though primarily for US and European fabs) is going to be military spending. The volume isn't huge, but the profitability can be astonishing. Military and aerospace markets provide a massive portion of the early semiconductor industry's revenue and investment capital. Keep up the great work!

[@tehpanda64]

Many reasons to believe you, yet few to doubt your reasoning. I don't honestly understand where the data center growth is coming from, unless it is emerging markets. I would expect replacement value in current cloud systems in the USA at any rate would not be many more times the cost, since compute density is also ever increasing.

[@John_Smith__]

Another good video and no, I'm not to criticize you because there is no visible semibust. Your videos are Very Informative and Well researched so there is really nothing to criticize. Your opinion/conclusion is yours and your are entitled to it based on the data you had at that time, and that's end of conversion. But I would like to add that there is another factor that will impact Specially the Big data multinationals ... CPU increased Efficiency ... or better Computing Density ... Most of these company can replace their Servers from old say Intel E5 Xeon series generations to much more Powerful AMD Epyc Server line ... We tend to forget that there was indeed a jump in core-count And IPC in the last 4 years all lead by AMD in this case (no this is not a fanboy headsup ok ... ) Also servers tend to be replaced Less often then other hardware, with cycles of 5-6 years if not more ... therefore the situation we have right is curious,. .. Once those quad-core/sic-core double CPU E5 series Xeons are replaced companies will experience a Huge jump on Computing power ... Making their previous operated Data Centres cope with a Lot more web-centric activity. This means that if they upgrade their Servers to say AMD ..remember AMD is clearly Delaying top of the line high-Cache CPU's in order to make those top silicon wafer to ... the Server market (Epyc/Theadripper) ... This means that a Much smaller number of servers will do the same work that previous generation E5 type of servers would do. Meaning ... Less top of the line Server CPU's are needed to compensate the increase in web-centric activity ... If they replace only a small portion of legacy systems the increases in capacity will be huge unlike in previous generations ... let's face it Intel was sleeping on the wheel for about 8 years straight ... And that is one argument that could also impact all of this "future demand" negatively.

[@SeanDriver]

How much of the build-out is companies repositioning their fabrication to shorten supply chain and improve security of supply i.e. onshoring? Will the overseas plants that are left behind be able to repurpose themselves to non logic/ memory areas or will they be removed from the market as they lack orders?

[@johndoh5182]

That's one side of why companies are building fabs, but if they felt it was a losing proposition they wouldn't have agreed to build these fabs. These are many billions of dollars, EACH. You don't spend that kind of money without understanding what the growth will be, and the guy making the videos isn't comprehending what's going to drive growth. TSMC is going to be the main benefactor though, and if Intel is ready with either their 3nm or 2nm node by the end of 2024 or early 2025 they'll enjoy one of the biggest boom cycles this industry has ever seen. If you want to understand it, I posted a long comment to the video. Sorry, it has to be long to drive the points. The jist of it though is turnover of current equipment, not new growth. And this will effect the world of server, laptops, PCs, pretty much everything involved in computing.

[@triadwarfare]

2:52 Interesting that 2019 was also "the best time to start PC gaming" as it was also this year when Techtuber videos exploded in popularity (LTT, J2C, GN, HUB, etc.). So when the suits are sad for all the revenue losses, consumers like us rejoice for all the cheap hardware. I don't think video cards are supposed to be as cheap as the original SRP of the current RTX lineup.

[@michaelf.2449]

Was it that year? I felt like PC gaming finally got mainstream around 2016 and then Ryzen dropped and basically everyone had a fucking gaming computer 🤣

[@timng9104]

if u can, do a video on analog computing / RRAM / artificial synapse / analog floating gate transistors / etc hehe thanks

[@johnwong8501]

Great insight! Tks John

[@cheongwenpa]

I like the way he say DRAM. He should have patented it.

[@GavinM161]

You should do these annually and honestly compare predictions with reality, not in an "I told you so" or "oops, missed that one" kind of way but to fill in the gaps where things diverged.

[@xchazz86]

Please do a video on the economics of food production and supply.

[@Erik-rp1hi]

What I always thought was the driver in new production in the USA and the EU was the possible reality that China would invade Taiwan and their ability to supply the West was going to be hijacked or destroyed. That an China as a supplier would be a no go. Kinda like having 2 bathrooms in a 3 bedroom house. It might not be needed but sure is a benefit to have one extra.

[@MrMatapatapa]

I liked your shoe episode -unfortunate that it didn't do so well.

[@notsharingwithyoutube]

Not only is the cloud growing, but it will all have to be rebuilt.

[@CautionCU]

The enterprise move to the cloud will certainly continue, BUT in about 3 years there won't be any onprem servers left to move there. A few very big competitors that will either collude or compete strongly on price.

[@ttb1513]

The cloud market can still grow even if no onprem servers are left to convert. The applications that have moved to the cloud, such as AI, can grow in compute demand and in areas in which they are applied.

[@Teste-gp7bm]

Your analysis was spot on before. The bust started some 3 months ago and affects logic. Intel has had a massive margin squeeze and AMD has started feeling it in DC GPUs. On consumers, all prices have come down and low end laptops are now selling 15% below pre-pandemic or at then sale price. With the current inflation environment... I follow semiconductor companies for two decades and your videos are great research on the matter. I can also tell you they come early and much more complete than what financial analysts do. Take pride, because you should.

[@onlymediumsteak9005]

How do you think the progress in AI will influence the demand for chips?

[@gregdobbs2577]

I loved the Taiwan shoe reading, thank you for that

[@jrc00u]

Thanks for the quality content.

[@sunnohh]

DRAMMM a semiconductor video!

[@KarrasBastomi]

2009 silicon bust you say? We need video on that!

[@smorcrux426]

How come almost all big company's stocks are dropping by quite a lot if what you're saying here is the case? I can't find a singular big high-tech company that didn't drop tens of percentages in the past few months-years.

[@matthewhuszarik4173]

How many old fabs are going to be retired or converted and are now being counted as new capacity?

[@GalileoAV]

Sorry to be that guy, but you should know that it's usually pronounced "D Ram", not "Dram" like the unit of water. Dee Ram. D-RAM. Dynamic-RAM. I've never heard it said like you do before. :) Edit: Also, same is true for other types of ram. Like static ram being called S Ram not Sram.

[@jcjko5504]

OK smart guy.

[@Graham_Wideman]

I approve of you being that guy, so we don't have to :-)

[@chasonsnotes]

Very good. I am subscribing

[@agenericaccount3935]

Fiiiine. I’ll watch the shoe one 👟 👀

[@denni_isl1894]

The human soul is combined of chaos and cosmos. Digital is on or off. Life is actually analog. Let that sink in.

[@Aruneh]

Aaaw, I loved the shoe video!

[@davewang202]

Hi, can I ask that you to pronounce DRAM as Dee-RAM rather than Dra-am? I'm a DRAM guy, and no one pronounces it as Dra-am. Thanks

[@StopChangingUsernamesYouTube]

Depending on just how much of a factor machine learning plays, I wouldn't be too surprised if it floats memory for a while. There are a bunch of models now that don't run or don't run well with less than 16GB of VRAM. Some NLP models demand far more, requiring cards like the Nvidia a100's 40GB of VRAM just to load the weights. I'm nowhere close to being an expert in any of that; just stuck feeling like a dingus around people who are, but just as a person who interacts with automated systems, I can see huge potential in advanced natural language processing. If Google "knew" what you were asking for while searching, it may yield better results, for instance. That's perhaps a bad example, as Google is currently clearly more interested in showing you what it wants you to find rather than what you're looking for, but they might have a lot to work with if they ever pivot back. And if they don't, there's other problems like image recognition that are similarly RAM-hungry. If we ever get self-driving cars that aren't marketing fluff and anyone can buy, they might do a lot of local image processing. The second models like we currently have find their way out of being unknown to most, a novelty or hobby for some and research for others, I'm guessing it'll set a new floor for memory demand. And just in case I need to restate it, I'm purely a voice in the peanut gallery and no one should put their marbles behind a random KZbin comment.

[@Gilotopia]

Metaverse will be an interesting sector to watch out for in the coming years. The headsets need high performance mobile chips but with 5g streaming of cloud rendering we're bound to see some unorthodox demand on the chip market.

[@sin3rgy]

100% Both the front and back end are going to need a ton of chips. GPUs to render the space and CPU/AI to give realistic interactions.

[@Gilotopia]

@@sin3rgy Meta is even making custom chips to render hi-fi realistic avatars. That's probably some exotic stuff.

[@Kneedragon1962]

LOL ~ Thank you for your work. I'm not about to yell at you.

[@Czeckie]

idea: make a video about the mask writing process and ecosystem. Recently there was a leap forward with the multibeam writing technology. I'm sure you could wrap it all up in a nice video.

[@PlanetFrosty]

The data center is impacted, but new edge compute

[@lubricustheslippery5028]

The big question is when/if China is taking the warpath and attack Taiwan. It could also disturb the production in South Korea that is close to China. So that would cause a huge disruption in semiconducting fabrication.

[@wilhelmvanbabbenburg8443]

Why are some of the fabs colored in Mondrian designs?

[@nexusyang4832]

I too really enjoyed the Taiwan shoes video. Don't know why it didn't do well. :/

[@uther10]

Do you know how the possible bust will affect the big chip companies or their stocks?

[@Feelthefx]

Please cover what a full scale Taiwan invasion would mean for semiconductor manufacturing and R&D.

[@falconsaviour1487]

I don't think the point is regarding chip supply bust or shortage. It is about profitability. I would definitely buy a 3090 ti if it was 500$ or less. The real cost of such chip is like around 300-400$ or less disregarding the R&D cost. Do the chip companies want to sell at this price? That is the question. Also if the likes of TSMC want to keep price of 5nm and 3nm sufficiently low. That's the real question. I don't see in any way how there can be surplus of 3 or 5 or 7 nm nodes. That is unfathomable as there is demand for high performance always.

[@johndoh5182]

When TSMC releases N3 to the world in general and it not be only available to risk partners, the turnover in compute products is going to be on a scale that I don't think the world has ever seen because of how much better it is than N7. It's 3X the transistor density and something like 40% more power efficient. The many worlds of server will be buying parts as fast as they possibly can. I don't know how much N5 will drive demand, but I KNOW N3 is going to. And it also happens to align with development cycles for AMD, Nvidia and a few other companies. The stars are going to align, and demand will be HUGE. Home users will benefit too. TSMC has said that their N5 and N3 should help bring prices down simply because of transistor density and how many more die can be had from a wafer. But they did raise prices for their advanced nodes. Intel wants to be on 2nm by 2025. If they are this will bring competition back to high performance nodes and will help keep TSMC in check.

[@LiveType]

A founders 3090ti in total costs in the neighborhood of $700-800 to manufacture and ship to your doorstep. It's not a cheap product by any means. Nvidia for sure loses money on their founders 3060ti and possibly 3070. The next generation will be even more expensive due to the extremely expensive (in comparison to samsung) tsmc node not to mention higher power requirements. New design paradigms are coming due to just how high power consumption for such parallel compute devices is becoming. I predict ~2025 will be a tipping point of converging technologies creating truly astonishing levels of performance.

[@nubletten]

That moment you said demand for gaming hardware I knew something is off, look at how the crypto situation have been...

[@engineeranonymous]

Today Adafruit release a video on chip shortage in which they say they haven't received the order of 8000 ATSAMD51 they give in 2021-07-07 and if you give order today you will receive in 03-May-2023 direct from Microchip and Digikey do not allow backorder.

[@SUNRISE-ADVENTURES]

IDK, But Apple just pushed my New MBP back for the THIRD TIME!! June 23rd now....

[@depth386]

In the pie charts of TSMC’s revenue, is DCE Desktop Computer Equipment?

[@Sokrabiades]

Enjoyable video.

[@Sokrabiades]

What is the image at 5:00?

[@roboticvenom1935]

the "bust" will be quite slow and gradual though..

[@lucretius8050]

You didn't factor in the move towards EVs, it is a large demand especially when some manufacturers and countries have already set their goals to hit certain targets.

[@mzamroni]

And even ddr5 ram now also needs euv

[@ttb1513]

@@mzamroni Think you are talking about EUV to make chips when the comment was about Electric Vehicles (EVs)?

[@Zero11_ss]

Wish I had watched your video a year ago =p

[@nixietubes]

I loved the shoe vid!

[@willberry6434]

Cloud will keep having to be updated as ai and work loads increase. I have no worries

[@aravindpallippara1577]

i am however expecting a big AI bust coming first. what we have currently are very good pattern recognition - not a true decision making AI, which while exist (the starcraft video game AI made by google) they require very solid rules and boundaries (video game ruleset) and extensive computing power. real world has strange rules and flexible boundaries unlike video games - and pattern recognition will only get you so far

[@Martinit0]

Man, I really really need a new computer. Have been hodling off since the pandemic and also because AMD CPUs were crazy expensive. Also need far more RAM than before. Did we mention that gamers have massive pent up demand in GPUs because ETH crypto miners have been snatching up all high performance cards? Also Win 11 coming out. That should drive hardware upgrades too.

[@middle_pickup]

I enjoyed the shoe show!

[@sin3rgy]

If you;re going to talk about silicon and AI but don't mention Nvidia, I have serious questions about the depth of your research. Also there are other areas of growing demands for chips. Have you heard of raspberry pi foundation? They're shipping half a million units a month and are back ordered 6 months. Arduino is releasing quite a few new products and several items are sold out. Look past the obvious. Did you know most cars require MCUs? 30-40 per car, 70-80m cars sold a year do that math. Transitioning to EVs only increases demand for higher end chips. Have you considered the effects of multiple industries shifting from x86 to ARM and RISC-V architecture? What would the fab industry look like when SOCs are dominant in consumer electronics? How about RISC-V potentially opening to door to small scale, bespoke chip designs enabling smaller players to create their own vs licensings or buying off the shelf. Whether or not meta takes off the work in that space is real, and demand for better faster graphics and rendering will increase. THe world is going more virtual than ever and your thesis is if the cloud doesn't prop up the chip industry, then thats that? Btw horrible example using the failure of stay at home stocks as a analog to demand for chips. Whether or not people are staying or working from home AI is a hardware race that all the big players are investing in. EVs are 7% of the car market today and growing exponentially. A crappy infotainment system isn't going to cut it when Tesla puts Ryzen chips in their cars, tracking to sell 1.3-1.4m units this year alone. You've distilled an incredibly complex and honestly incomparable period in time for silicon, to a overly simplistic view thats not even in the right directions.

[@roelfbackus]

Huawei just posted a video on YT about their 5nm chip: "Huawei's new 5nm chip success: Kirin 9006C" ...how did they manage that?

[@Asianometry]

Perhaps by lying about it

[@elcaciquedev]

The answer can be found in the % of different types of traffic in the internet.

[@eurotrash5610]

I OVED THE SHOE VIDEO. Wait, did I like it? brb.

[@cem_kaya]

There is not enough silicon ingot production for a bust

[@ru13r44]

great video

[@oauthoracle6942]

You missed it completely. It’s Bitcoin manning that is driving all the logic growth. Go try and buy a graphics card without buying a complete system. They are so hard to come by. You’d have to wait in line outside a Best Buy for 48 hours just to get one.

[@CalgarGTX]

There was a memory crash in 2019 ? Thats funny to hear, SSD prices never went back to even their 2014 levels... price per Go is still a joke since then despite supposedly better nand available.

[@gj1234567899999]

Semi conductors have been kind of removed from the boom bust cycle because governments view them as a strategic industry that need to be subsidized.