ASML Stock is Not a Positive Asymmetric Risk And Reward Bet

ASML Stock is Not a Positive Asymmetric Risk And Reward Bet from both a short term and a longer term fundamental perspective. The business is a great one, nothing wrong with it but when I compare the fundamentals and expectations to ASML's current stock price, the investing positives are simply not there.
ASML Stock is Not a Positive Asymmetric Risk And Reward Bet

[@viktorweinberg]

And not a word about the fact that ASML are almost a monopolist in their market. Wow, what a profound analysis...

[@Flisci]

Yes this is not good at all, this company is as close as a monopoly as it gets. Just by the quality of the company, it's monopolistic position, good management and a secular trend (ai) in their favor is a great asymmetric bet in my opinion.

[@jrangelo]

We don’t worry about quality here, just P/E ratio 😅

[@Flisci]

@ haha exactly 😅

[@user-yd8wp8rz2b]

I can always count on Sven to inject reality to my exuberance,

[@rickgraham7641]

I get that this is a historic bull market but it seems like a bad strategy to be rigid and not participate because you think it can't last for 10 years. The advice to sit out the AI bubble has to be some of the most ego driven madness I've ever heard. It's like being proud about not investing in Microsoft back in the early 90's just because a decade later there was a crash.

[@PavolKosik-b3u]

Its bull market like any other. Earnings go up so stock prices go up. Only difference is that earnings are growing longer than any previuos periods and thats most probably because of all that government spending on debt.

[@sssandhu78]

This guy said the same thing about Meta when it was trading at $100. Now ASML is not a bargain by any means. But it is a monopoly with a huge moat that I believe has a decent chance of performing better than the market.

[@Value-Investing]

the channel is called VALUE INVESTING, thus we discuss RISK FIRST!

[@PavolKosik-b3u]

​@@Value-InvestingValue investing is buying very fast growing companies at fair value. Which ASML is now. It trades at par with historical PE ratio which historically provided great long term value.

[@meegomeow]

You are right, one day ASML will be valued like Nvidia.​@@PavolKosik-b3u

[@valerio727]

@@PavolKosik-b3u benjamin graham is turning in his grave

[@Austin6403]

@@Value-Investingheres a risk- missing all the winners because they were “too expensive”

[@adriantimar4290]

not agreeing with you on this one Sven; business fundamentals are amazing, ROCE of 45% last 2 years, average on last 5 years is 30%; Debot to Equity: 0,25; Interest coverage: 250x; huge Moat and a monopoly; assuming a long time perspective this price is attractive; real risk in my opinion is geopolitical namely government limitation on chip exports to China but I can't predict that

[@bartdevries8531]

Yeah, don’t think this was a very strong analysis. Mostly numbercrunching, but not taking into account the moat. It really is something else than even Apple. IPhone sales may tank in bad times, but the demand for ASML’s machines is a certainty

[@rickyismyuncle4485]

One of the easiest buy indeed this year for me. I managed to buy at the very bottom. I'm ready to buy more if it reaches 600 for some reason. I'm used to better analyse from Sven.

[@joepistone8922]

It's overvalued and on downward trend

[@PavolKosik-b3u]

​@@joepistone8922Its fairly valued based on 20Y average PE multiple. Its a little bit pricey looking at PEG but which stocks arent these days. Times of Peter Lynch buying 25% growers for PE 15 are long gone. We are now buying stagnating companies for that kind of PE.

[@klub3586]

Maybe Nutrien is better :))) 10yr performance -50% :))

[@gregorsimon9337]

I love this channel because you tell another story than the other channels and your stories are fitting better to my perception of reality.

[@ThePHATBASTURD]

Thank you sven i was blinded by the fact it is a monopoly and not the fact that the price could easily go down from where it is now

[@Kenneth23414]

I'd love to invest in stocks after listening to a guy on a podcast talk about the importance of investing and how he made over $300k in few months of investing into stocks from $175k initial capital, somehow this video has helped shed light on some things but I'm confused about the current market volatility I'm new to this and I'm open to ideas.

[@Scarlett34568]

It's difficult to beat the market as an ordinary investor, you don't have access to information that professionals have. So it's just better if you invest with a professional who knows how things work better.

[@Theodore3241]

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[@Alden457]

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[@Theodore3241]

'Aileen Gertrude Tippy' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

[@Alden457]

Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@luigigetsu]

2025 Guidance of 30B euros on the lower side at 28% net margins puts us at 31 PE which historically is the lower the stock has gone so far. Keep in mind that in 2026 INTC and TSM new fabs will start to ramp up, so the demand should spike. I think starting a position at this valuation is not a bad idea at all and if it tanks 15 or 20% you deploy more funds, they are building new facilities in Eindovhen to fullfil the demand which I think tells a lot about the strenght of the business and what management is expecting.

[@TheScaryGermanGuy]

Which INTC fabs will ramp up? Do you mean the German and Polish ones? Those got postponed to 2029.

[@demetriusdicks6727]

It's very clear from ASML management on the recent conference call that Intel is pulling back its order book (they haven't cancelled yet...but INTC also has no money and is whoring itself out to Apollo, Brookfield and whoever else they can find to give them money...who clearly will take advantage of them). Samsung also pulling back. TSM is playing hardball negotiations with the TWINSCAN EXE: 5200 High NA machines (though pretty sure they will be forced buyers at a better price). Whether Harris or Trump wins, it's likely US export restrictions to China are likely to worsen and then China going from current 47-49% of current ASML sales down to 20% next year...we can all do math. The Dutch government now requires ASML to get their approval before sending out its EUV machines Only HBM and DDR5 in memory and leading edge nodes in logic remain in a cyclical uptrend. IoT, industrial, renewable, automotive and PC segments still under pressure. Maybe there's some hope for mobile but that seems murky currently too. I agree with Sven on the significant risk still not being priced in, though I have a 2025 FV of $910 applying a 25x forward multiple to current 2026 EPS estimates. But if those estimates are too high, multiple compression is expected so I always apply a 20% discount so maybe get this to $683 FV (below which I'm allowed to nibblwe). So still not cheap despite it's sell off. FYI I've been a shareholder since Dec 21 (bought too early but averaged down nicely during the 2022 bear market so in a good spot currently). However ASML remains a moat. There is no way forward without this company or TSM so really buying both into weakness over time makes sense (to me). Maybe tranches if all hell breaks loose. Cheers.

[@helloken]

I see this all the time, where people compare the price to itself to see if it is cheap historically. Personally, I don't think it makes sense...I prefer to look at the value I likely will get (profit!). A P/E of 35 means with no growth, it will take 35 years to earn back the price we pay, which is about a 3% yield. Now of course I realize it is likely to grow but it would have to grow a lot for this to get a decent yield (say 10% or better). And it may, I just don't like to rely on aggressive growth for a good return. I'd much rather own Google, which is trading for 24 P/E and 35 P/FCF (free cash flow). Even then, I think it is a pinch expensive. I see ASML as of 10/20/2024 trading at 38 P/E and 92 P/FCF. It's too rich for me, but good luck to anyone choosing to invest. Hopefully I am wrong!

[@ColourRevolution666]

I bought 93 shares. 29.21% Payout Annualized 3-Year Dividend Growth 31.28% 44.98% Upside A strong buy from me.

[@Hyper1555]

Companies only invest when times are great and cut when times are bad, presicely the opposite of what a smart man would do. Asml is expanding like crazy and only future demand has dropped. When the new fabs are in place and the semi-cycle flips, the books of asml will be full for years.

[@feamatar]

Semiconductor industry has always been cyclical, but with a cylce that is usually about 10-15 years, it might not be the wisest to go all in at this moment.

[@rogerwilliams8326]

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[@ErbeCheryl]

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[@rogerwilliams8326]

He's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name

[@rogerwilliams8326]

@MarioJsignal✊✊

[@rogerwilliams8326]

Don't write anything other than that username, be careful of scammers who claim to be like him

[@ErbeCheryl]

Thanks for the info... I'll contact him as soon as possible. I also want to get good knowledge and stop losing...

[@Philip0128]

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[@Philip0128]

Well, It's all thanks to Robert Marion

[@GeorgeDickey-rw4hj]

Robert platform maintains a unique perspective and is very transparent with their investors. Regardless of whether or not he outperforms. I will forever stay invested!

[@JohnsonAlima]

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[@deloraprange]

that’s very nice. Please how can i be able to reach out to your broker. My income is in a mess please

[@Philip0128]

Sure!He interacts on what’s Apk using the digit below

[@ramyashetty5010]

Planning to buy few stocls in ASML,forecast is 1200 end of this year,does that seem possible?

[@emanuelecalamia6219]

Hi sven, thanks as always! What about STmicroelectronics? The stock is down 50% from its top. On the semi-conductor sector it is better to be a contrarian, thus it would be a great time to look at it!

[@LawStephOfficial]

that fu***n Stmicroelectronics went down a lot in the last few months! I've lost near -31% and it wasn't at the top! It suffers from Stellantis and a weak demand. We will see...

[@nicolashazzi]

Hi, it will be great that you analyzed STM microelectronics, I think that is a likely value investing perspective because it has a low PE and very good ROIC. I think that is the cheaper company in the semiconductor industry :)

[@Value-Investing]

Great suggestion!

[@DanielKekenak]

ASML’s management projects revenue of approximately $60 billion by 2030, up from around $26 billion in recent years, reflecting anticipated growth in demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. If ASML maintains or improves its current profit margins and valuation multiples, this growth could significantly elevate its stock price, with some analysts suggesting the potential for it to double or even triple by 2030. However, this forecast depends on ASML’s ability to maintain market dominance, manage supply chain and geopolitical risks, and sustain technological leadership.

[@scarge1]

Hello Sven, what do you think about Rio Tinto buying Arcadium Lithium? Will this help Rio Tinto gain on its fundamentals? Thank You.

[@MrSerbianSwag]

Would you consider looking into Toronto Dominion bank after the AML compliance issues have been settled?

[@StockSpotlightPodcast]

Your fundamental argument is the PE Ratio? Why not actually talk about the business and more important key financial metrics? Seems like this video was put out because everyone else is talking about ASML now

[@PrintOnDemandWorld]

Lvmh is the best opportunity at these levels?

[@helloken]

I agree, I was kind of passively listening ngl, but this is a great company that is too expensive in my opinion. A lot of ppl invest with relative valuation (how it is valued compared to itself in the past and it's peers in the industry) but this is a mistake in my opinion. A long term investor must invest with absolute valuation, how much profit it makes (and likely will make in the future) relative to the price it is selling for.

[@PavolKosik-b3u]

Long term 95% of returns are from EPS growth and dividends. PE is remaining 5%. Long term does not matter which PE you pay. 20Y EPS growth of Microsoft is 14% and sahres delviered 15 annual returns despite 20% expanse of PE ratio. So after dividend only 0.5% of total returns of Microsoft are based on PE. Remaining 14.5% are EPS plus dividends.

[@enyx7675]

yea bro, asml with its monopoly position should surely be trading on a 17 p/e ratio ahhaha

[@viktorianas]

yes, then it would a sure bargain, yet now it's future is already priced in.

[@PavolKosik-b3u]

it's forward PE in 2030. He never said it should trade at PE 17. By the way Peter Lynch said that bargain starts with PE half the growth rate. So in Lynch times ASML would be a bargain with PE 10 or lower. Good old days of cheap investing.

[@jrb1345]

Hi Sven, great round of videos. Would you consider one on Viasat VSAT?

[@robinwagstaff7807]

guidance is an ancillary information... company is one of the post important in the world, and why they are being called into geopolitics,,, amazing R&D, super talented management with employees love working there. Analize what matters.

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks for sharing, agree, but here we look at price paid first

[@robinwagstaff7807]

@@Value-Investingprice is very important, but you can buy ASML now with similar multiples as Apple, but with much better growth prospects and similar china exposure.

[@robinwagstaff7807]

Guidance is known to change on a dime especially on cycle down turns that chips are in now outside of AI chips.

[@robinwagstaff7807]

paying up for extremly dominant companies, with high growth prospects with a position that is nearly impossible to penetrate..... these typically work out when the price becomes reasonable.. ASML is by know means cheap.

[@volkerwellmannn5410]

Dodged the Asml bullet by getting out just in time thanks to your video. Cheers😅

[@Value-Investing]

good to know!

[@prem_pre]

Awsome fundamental company, great technical price bought heavily at 670

[@NiekVink]

Veeeery insightful thank you.

[@Value-Investing]

Glad it was helpful!

[@aditandadit]

I appreciate the perspective to give me a reality check on exuberance, but I do think amazing companies only rarely trade at extremely low multiples and asml seems like one of those companies.

[@TechPeeves]

where does lulu and lly sit on your carlin value quandrant'? love the chart too!

[@Value-Investing]

we. discussed lulu kzbin.info/www/bejne/gWKogayjjLWmi5I

[@TechPeeves]

@@Value-Investing yea remember liking that video. I mean which quadrant does it fall on your chart in the video in terms of risk and reward in comparison to AAPL, CHINA, MSFT. You were right about AAPL and MSFT. They both did poorly lately.

[@HS-PGA]

Pls revisit Kinder Morgan , I bought it based on the last video you did on it and it has shot up . Is it still a buy ?

[@Value-Investing]

ah, seems an interest rate game in the US, not for me!

[@enriquefernandez1728]

Thank Sven for your videos! I would love to hear your opinion on $EC Ecopetrol. Close to Covid lows and potential political play. Risk might be recession in oil market. Thanks!

[@faronskelton4085]

Thank you sir.

[@Value-Investing]

thank you!

[@돈차]

Sven, ASML is enabler of the technology not the manufacturer of AI. In order to understand whether the revenue of ASML will continue or not, you need to look at the utilization of manufacturers TSMC Intel and Samsung. Apart from TSMC, it is true that they are slowing down investments in semi equipments.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for adding that, I understand that but that is from where the demand arrives!

[@davidfrankel9267]

Where does NVDA fit into or compare to what ASML does?

[@patrickcarmichael5045]

@@davidfrankel9267NVIDIA gets its chips from TSMC- who use ASML machines to make said chips.

[@garrisonsimon]

I think the trend is your friend in this stock. The key is to be willing to average down. I see the business fundamentals and their dominant position as good enough to take a chance on them. It is better in the 400s but who knows if we will get there?

[@ILikePlayingMelee]

I like the fact that you use DeGiro and also in dutch language. ;)

[@Value-Investing]

bedankt!

[@WORLDCITIZEN2004]

ASML is a good company if you are a longterm holder.. If you are shorterm don't buy.

[@helloken]

I personally believe the opposite, haha! Too expensive long term, but might go back up a bit short term. A good company no doubt, but for it to be a good investment it needs to be fairly priced. If this was a third of the price I'd be buying don't get me wrong. I guess nobody knows for sure without that crystal ball that investors sometimes talk about...

[@Adam-tt5hn]

Ignoring valuation and saying just hold long term isn’t value investing

[@Max-fh7ij]

​@@hellokenA third of the price, for the company with the biggest moat in the world, keep dreaming 😂

[@andychau123]

Maybe under 30 hopefully. 😂

[@giuseppegiannini3697]

Thank you for your contents. Greetings from Italy

[@user-wc7em8kf9d]

Interesting where you put Teleperformance on your, great btw, Quadrant.

[@jamesan8156]

Sven, is the pull back because the US and Europe has eliminated the availability of the lithography machines to China?

[@Value-Investing]

I feel it is more sector movement

[@ibrahimciftci9599]

Lam Research is the safer bet

[@AlonsoLooncho]

Can you make a video of BN ?

[@musicloveranthony]

He’s said too complicated to analyze

[@Value-Investing]

I see it just goes up, let me check!

[@UlrichVanHeesen]

Very interesting, thank you

[@valstr]

Sven can you review qualcomm? Thanks.

[@TheBooban]

Nobody knows if it will go up or down or this is the bottom. But 100% sure $720 is cheaper than $872. Have to DCA, though $720 is expensive to DCA with. (I can't buy fractional shares).

[@MrFrescocotone]

I agree, i dont like the risk reward ratio at this price

[@lorenzomiglietta9094]

Sven what about Continental Ag?

[@jasonalexander7089]

Hello Sven. Everything seems like a risky investment now. Markets are too high so can't buy anything

[@jamesan8156]

And is this why you or negative on the risk reward on the stock?

[@Value-Investing]

as discussed!

[@shekharsingh6506]

Not a good analysis. ASML is in monopoly business and has moat. If these were calculation for NVIDIA we all have missed that as well.

[@TheKatorosa]

This is a great but at these levels. Just hold for the coming 10 years. Seems like a good bet. Most important company in the world at 40% from ath.

[@PavolKosik-b3u]

ASML had 20% annual growth rate in last 20 years and you think someone who will buy it today will earn only 50%? Lets say someone will hold it for next 10 years that would mean less than 5% annual EPS growth. Thats highly unlikely. Lets not forget that PE change is miniscule part of total returns of any stock you will hold for long term. Because stocks are about earnings, earnings, earnings and EPS growth.

[@Dihorse371]

ASML is affected by US geo-political decision to such an extend that fundamental finicial analysis becomes irrelavant.

[@JXZ-JAM]

You are aware of what ASML does that no one else can do right?

[@Value-Investing]

of course, but you never know if it will do that forever

[@JXZ-JAM]

@Value-Investing I'd bet hard money they won't. But I'm not talking about later, I'm talking about now. They are the only ones that can do what they do which essentially keeps the world running. Others will catch up to them, Especially like when microgravity and other advents take off, but it's gonna take years for them to get anywhere where asml is.

[@Gabbyigi]

Eventually China would find a way to copy ASML or develop an alternative. That is a risk that needs to be seriously considered. unfortunately, this is a consequence of government’s policy.

[@jamesan8156]

ASML is a monopoly. Is that factored in?

[@Value-Investing]

yes, it is factored into the cash ASML gives you:-)

[@konsa67-f3u]

The US economy is currently facing high inflation and currency devaluation concerns. Investing in the S&P 500 might not be the safest bet right now

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@IsabellaM-n6q]

the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.

[@oliviaG-q4f]

Don’t blame the economy. The question to be asked at times is not if the government or the economy is responsible for the sudden dramatic shifts in the economy but if we are taking the necessary measures to avoid making losses no matter the situation even if the payroll is not in your favor

[@barbara-o5i]

What measure would you consider then to better stock investments? What you should be thinking about is where you’re gonna put the money you have in your bank

[@oliviaG-q4f]

At times not just creating smart investments but buying assets can improve your profit margins in the long run

[@jensditrich3980]

This is early innings and the moat is sooo big...

[@landoncremeens7656]

You can’t impose a strictly fundamental analysis on a company with no real competitors, especially in a sector with unprecedented demand. No other company in the world can match their EUVL photolithography machines, nor can they produce them at similar scale. Yes the stock is currently overpriced from a fundamental POV, but compared to who?? They can name their price, and foundries will have to pay it if they want to remain competitive. ASML provides an irreplaceable product to unparalleled companies in a space with insatiable demand….how could you possibly assign a dollar value to that lol??

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing, but there is a price to everything, at the end it all boils down to the consumer and how much is the consumer willing to pay, you can then trace that to ASML...

[@LawStephOfficial]

You put it in a middle position, so it's not a bad bet and not a good bet. I think that if asml gets a -10 or -15% maybe it could be a very good pick

[@cooper1507]

ASML seems to be very very low risk. They are the only player in the game. China has yet to crack the nut of their tech.

[@okocimskie_piwerko]

You sold AMAZON at 120, you sold META at 150 or something, u r perfect guide to do all opposite . Is mean BUY ASML

[@Value-Investing]

I also bought those at 90 and 90, no? anyway, investing is not about being perfect...

[@TechPeeves]

Love it!

[@Value-Investing]

thanks!

[@stormchasingandinvesting]

Remy Cointreau?

[@klub3586]

Sven how is starbucks? 71usd to 96 i warned you :) "Value investing" term is just commoj sense nothing wow, you would only buy if one good stock is 50% down, ofc mate everyone will buy it there is no secret there.

[@jonnes__4657]

🗽 The chip pig-cycle... history rimes. .

[@michaelfriend3990]

There is demand at $600 so that's about the floor. I think it's asymmetric as the upside is $400

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@Okarion]

Yes, I am kicking myself for not buying when it was bellow $400 dollars just 2 years ago.

[@TheBooban]

But will you be kicking yourself again not buying at this price too?

[@michaelfriend3990]

@@TheBoobananswer is prob yes. May go down $100 but upside is $500

[@javierarchegos]

Pfizer please 5% dividend, new possible profitable drugs. Super low pe ratio and even following technical analysis seems a channel up from the bottom.

[@GBorst]

High debt and payout ratio above 100%, you consider that sustainable? I rather pay a premium for a business with a solid balance sheet and lower dividend rate

[@NavaAndNeki]

Yes Sven, but AI will stay and explode

[@fkklkomvocl1234gv]

Could be worse (tsmc)

[@nikoblub3755]

ema 200 did hold last ten years...

[@sdavidleigh6642]

Don't the machines they make break down a lot. Aren't the Chinese hot on their trail? That ship has sailed. Find the next big one. Good vid Sven.

[@guillemodred3938]

I would guess that eventually (probably soon) ASML equipment will be copied by China and then surpassed soon after that. I see the risk in buying ASML now as similar to buying Sony in the 1990's.

[@nathanieldupler3757]

I'd suggest reading the book Chip Wars. Reading this book really highlights just how far ahead ASML's technology is over their competition, especially China.

[@Max-fh7ij]

You have no clue about semiconductor manufacturing if you really think that

[@guillemodred3938]

@@Max-fh7ij you have no clue what clues I may or may not have, but I think you are naive to think no one can copy and then improve on equipment made by the Dutch.

[@Bulruninvests]

First

[@simonefiaschi9076]

Ora tu ai dubbi su in azienda come asml te sei quello che diceva di non investire sui minatori di preziosi , te devi investire nelle obbligazioni e basta tu fai tanti discorsi e numeri ma un tu V intendi nulla….

[@KimberlyO.Kitchens]

Honestly, this situation makes me uneasy, especially with the potential depression, not just a recession. I'm not sure about my $130K investment strategy given the economic uncertainty.

[@JasonB.Chisolm]

If you're not familiar with market investing tactics, you should get advice from a financial counselor.

[@JasonB.Chisolm]

I agree! That's why I work with one. My $520K portfolio is well-prepared for all market conditions, having grown 85% since early last year. My advisor and I are planning for this year too. my opinion, financial advisors are among the most important professionals, just like doctors.

[@juliasalley]

Nice! Once you hit a big milestone, the next one comes easier. Who is your advisor, if you don’t mind sharing?

[@JasonB.Chisolm]

Her name is Stacy Lynn Staples. You can research her name to find the necessary details and set up an appointment.

[@JohnNgomba-k3v]

Thank you! I searched her name online, found her website, and filled out her form. I hope she gets back to me soon.