Prediction: Urgent ALERT for Melbourne Property Market vs Rest of Australia

[@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK]

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[@Jonesy-j8q]

Great stuff PK as always. You are amazing at what you do.

[@CleanupStack]

It very hard to penetrate in TV and regional QLD. Too many buyers agent and prices are very inflated. Banks do not value nor match the offer price and often you end up putting extra $$ from your pocket or from equity.

[@jameszbierski391]

💯

[@tonytanou]

Your comment on Melbourne being below the long term medium house price position and should see some catch up: "unless you believe Melbourne is structurally different than how it was in the last 10 years." . The question needs to be asked: how badly has Melbourne deteriorated structurally in the last 5 years and is it's trajectory as a city more of the same? Answering this will solve the Melbourne investment riddle. My gut feeling is many years of flat capital yields combined with good gains in rental yields.

[@williamcrossan9333]

I reckon it sort of is. Well not Melbourne so much, but it's QLD (Brisbane) which is. Brisbane will likely be fundamentally more expensive, and moving towards a bigger city. And it's that which is 'stealing' from Melbourne. So it's more that the market now has three Aussie super cities to choose from now, rather than two.

[@todd6798]

Markets within markets. Melbourne investment will depend on the area.

[@broxs]

I love your work mate! Thanks for putting in the time🙏

[@billystergiopoulos8025]

Tell it how it is ,reason being the land taxes are driving away investors that is the reason it's lower than other states

[@williamcrossan9333]

8:30: That is just a prediction of course, but I reckon VIC is overestimated, and QLD underestimated. I expect Brisbane and the coasts to have pretty solid increase in the population.

[@kavindagunasekara1384]

Data base investments are definitely a great approach. But you cant ignore the people's feelings as once a larger group of people start to feel the FOMO or the opposite, things will change dramatically in no time which will override every thing what data shows... In my opinion this will happen in Perth and Melbourne starting from next year. Perth to be flat or decline and Melbourne to Boom.

[@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK]

Sentiment can also be quantified and is something we look at

[@fredsalfa]

Thanks PK I tend to agree with you. Some other analysts are saying similar things that now might be too early but monitor conditions in the next 6 months or years and it might be the time then to buy

[@bencantyproperty]

PK thanks very much mate for your fantastic analysis as per normal.

[@am1296]

Real estate agents here in Melbourne saying most sellers are investors. These are people with multiple residential and commercial investments who are being smashed with huge land tax bills. Imagine you had an EXTRA $50K or $70K in land tax you had to pay each year Also you have to upgrade properties to be new green compliant. Again extra thousands in costs per IP.

[@JasonGiang-g6d]

yeah, fak the investors.

[@nicholasgianatti4993]

What? most of the time the land tax bill is like $1-3k which is tax deductible since its a state tax lol unless you are a huge investor with millions of dollars worth of land value (not property value). Vic has cheaper insurance and pm rates in comparison to other states so you probably aren't really effected regardless

[@Mustang85635]

@@nicholasgianatti4993you sound like a small fish buddy many people have properties in the millions on this channel myself included. We have been slugged with big bill 50k

[@nicholasgianatti4993]

@@Mustang85635 you're saying your LAND VALUE for your investment properties in Victoria is $4m?

[@williamcrossan9333]

Yeah I've run the numbers on a few selected houses. Melbourne is deeply negative. Even a typical 'cheapie' seems to be a good 20K negative before tax. The average investor wont be able to hold many of those!

[@AghaSaberi]

PK the goat - out with another banger!! Thanks again!

[@EdBarton31]

Melb Auction clearance rate is under 60%. Its a buyers market. Negotiate hard and get a bargain in melbourne 10-20% below market value. That wont last long when all the investors start selling perth which has peaked to buy or upgrade to a better home in melbourne (where many interstate investors live). Stupid governments eventually get voted out. Get in early or miss out on the coming boom.

[@yz9459]

@@EdBarton31 20% discount. No way

[@Mustang85635]

@@yz9459yes 10%- 20% I’ve seen recently very true. Not across the board but in bad performing parts of Melbourne it’s quite bad

[@shaishabshrestha5214]

Hoppers crossing in Melbourne only 30 mins from cbd is absolute bargain at 550k

[@adelinad3513]

At least Victoria can feed it's residents from it's backyard. Has good water, less tsunami risks in an active ring of fire time like now, more risk for increases earthquake so don't buy high, high migrant population in case of city disruptions aka civil unrest so don't live in Melbourne. That is how you have to think for the next 8 years, everything else that worked previously it's gone.

[@smenging7280]

Melbourne is Structurally different from what it was before the fall, our state has the worst debt to income ratio. If Victoria was an individual bank wont be lending Victoria money as her debt to income ratio is 4.3:1 currently and going up to 5:1

[@dsinghr]

I hate this fact, being a Melbournian. I wonder why Victorians vote for Labor again and again.

[@Mustang85635]

I agree I think Melbourne has structural issues and regulation will only get worse.

[@GraceBorgese]

Thank you very much so much information.👍👍👍

[@themeditatinginvestor]

This is a great video! Thank you PK

[@CuriousDiaries]

Love your videos PK! Hoping to buy your course soon! It looks like booting Labour out of power is the only way Melbourne will be on track. Unfortunately, I was one of the victims of land+house investment in Melb. Novice investor! Would you recommend I sell?

[@huschhima2171]

NZ’s coalition government has cut spending and reduced migration this has resulted in one cut in June and now looks like another cut in October and hopefully November

[@Enduro20069]

People priced out of other states will buy in Melbourne. Watch the west and north, good value

[@Balanced--]

Im currently building in one of Victoria's holiday hot spots and should be completed by feb/march all in time with the interest rate drops. I think we're going to see another run early 2025.

[@nickchandra4890]

As I said before being right and making money are two different things. eg. If You can lose 5 times $10 each and make $ 60 a sixth time rolling a dice you will play this game continuously as you will make money long term. Your win loss ratio is 1:5 but it doesn't matter. Lot of people just try to win as much as possible and forget that being right is not the aim but to make the most money is the goal. In property it is the same rule. You don't need to be right every year but when the payoff comes it is massive.

[@arundookee4181]

Thank you for great video as usual.

[@EastWood2004]

Thanks, very informative.

[@minecraftgaga]

Thanks for the video mate. What are your thoughts on Geelong region atm? Cheers

[@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK]

@@minecraftgaga not good at present

[@Mohammed-x8m]

Thank you for your video mate….I can't recommend Shellane Maxwell enough! With her expert guidance, I successfully flipped my first property and made a profit of $80,000. She provided invaluable insights on market trends and investment strategies that truly made a difference. Thanks to her, I feel confident in my real estate investments and excited about my financial future!

[@Mohammed-x8m]

She mostly interacts on Telegrams, using her name

[@Mohammed-x8m]

@shellanemaxwell

[@victor-g8i9g]

this is not my first time of seeing her name on social platform. I think she's extremely brilliant and lucrative at the same time

[@TengkuTony]

Thanks to her tax strategies, I saved over $50,000 last year

[@mike-x3h7q]

With her advice, I diversified my crypto investments across five different coins, which helped me mitigate risk and achieve a 45% overall return

[@jimm3379]

Change of government required, for Melbourne to boom. In the meantime population & funds will continue to flow interstate.

[@blackdox3002]

Thanks PK .. so it's very unlikely to expect much growth in apartments in Melbourne - even in inner city suburbs such as Fitzroy or even South bank due to an oncoming supply?

[@dericofdorking]

@@blackdox3002 apartment builds have slowed a lot in Melbourne from memory

[@lee.j7077]

How much is land tax in Victoria?

[@Tiago-qv9lr]

Great question

[@navidmomin1820]

If you buy townhouse in Australia in a community do you get the land ownership as well or only ownership of propetty ie. The townhouse?

[@dericofdorking]

You get land but it's a much smaller plot

[@Friends4ever3373]

Most of the data sources are 2-3yrs old. Do you think the trend we saw before will continue

[@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK]

@@Friends4ever3373 I don’t think they are

[@garthrobinson5479]

We bought a unit in the heart of Melbourne in 2016 for $335k and sold it today for $287k the market is horrible only place in Australia that has gone down that much.

[@Mustang85635]

Buying a unit in Melbourne always was going to be a death sentence. Many people warned of this back then.

[@blackdox3002]

Wow, sorry to hear.. surely apartments can't get much lower than that? Is this due to a huge supply of apartments in the city as PK alluded to?

[@Mustang85635]

@@blackdox3002 supply is through the roof. It’s springing up like mushrooms everywhere. It’s suicide to buy apartments now

[@piddl23]

This happened in Brisbane also. Beginning of covid there were 2 bedroom units selling for 100k + under their original 2015 purchase price. Fast forward 4 years and Fomo got them selling for 6-700k. So i dunno im looking to buy a 1 bedder as the yield is 6-7% right now hopecully only negatively geared for 2 or 3 yeats. So either in 30 years il have a fully paid off unit to retire into or best case scenario FOMO will hit melbourne soon. I dunno 🤷🏽‍♀️

[@Peter-zv4dx]

You bought the wrong type of property

[@kwridgway]

What's missing from your GDP analysis is the fact that private investment has plummeted. So the % increase from government naturally increases. You've also failed to mention that peak interest rates overseas have been higher than Australia - would you like to have seen PPR home loans @ 8% ? And one final point. What's often forgotten is that the RBA has a legislated mandate to maintain "full employment". That obligation has been mostly ignored in recent years in favour of the UNlegislated concept of maintaining inflation between 2 and 3 %. Food for further discussion... Definitely no offence intended to those who write for the AFR, but they push a particular agenda. For a different perspective, Greg Jericho, writing for the Australian edition of The Guardian is worth reading.

[@JBLegal09]

💯%

[@AeroDr]

Peak rates in Australia don't need to be as high as other countries, because transmission in Australia is much more direct due to vast majority of home loans being variable. Australia's outstanding mortgage rates have increased the most in the OECD, only behind to Norway.

[@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK]

@@AeroDrnailed it

[@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK]

Government spending has risen regardless of what private spending has done

[@timagination1295]

Melbourne is the woke capital of Australia...the state govt is pursuing ideology and running down the state economy! I'm not sure how much this can affect population growth!

[@loft27ss]

Moral degradation and zombiland imported from USA….. the same scenario…. Tent cities soon to come….😢

[@MP-id2po]

Absolutely! They've destroyed the economy and are now pursuing a "partners in poverty" policy by stealing from the rich to pay for the poor.

[@hlebnikov108]

As a selling agent in Melbourne, i see more and more investors buying in the west of Melbourne!! Sold lots based on walkthrough videos, i have heaps of affordable listings in Werribee, Tarneit, Truganina, Point Cook and Williams Landing etc, we also services north and east and Melbourne CBD. Happy to help!!

[@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK]

@@hlebnikov108 all places where I would not buy

[@SilverTongue258]

@@hlebnikov108 West isn't desirable.

[@JohnBarrins]

That was quality

[@anujkaher5792]

G’day PK, what’s your wisdom says if I am looking to invest - how can I reach out to you ? happy to talk further

[@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK]

@@anujkaher5792 consultingbypk.com.au/

[@BaynulHaramain]

I have seen more properties selling in Frankston North , due to plan building new infrastructure and also close to beautiful beech Within -10 km CBD over priced

[@AghaSaberi]

Wow i learn so much about macro economics from you PK... Please keep your educational content coming ❤️

[@firststep7750]

60,000 people didn't leave Melbourne! They escaped! Anybody living there over the 'gulag' years knows why.

[@guelfolumini8390]

videos always good as Gold

[@ThrowBackZone]

Why are we still doubting Melbourne's potential? If we don’t act now, we might end up regretting it like those who missed out on Brisbane! 🥴

[@jamesm6341]

I am buying in Melbourne Pk.Townsville etc high insurance and high rates + way too many east coast investors in a hot market in my view.

[@Tingedarkensaw]

where you buying ? frasers rise ? craigeburn ?

[@anth1839]

@@jamesm6341 I agree why are people buying in flood zones. Insurance is massive and the rates are also ridiculous 🙄. Yes it's a hot market in many of these areas but when it floods again then what. Doesn't make sense to me am I missing something?

[@13579john]

Which part of Melbourne is good?

[@matthewkelly4107]

Plenty of flood free areas. They are fixing their drainage issues as well. Getting on at a decent price now is hard though

[@LMCQ95]

Hi PK, while sharing this info, you referred “capital cities” a few times. Does that mean this video is in relation to Melbourne ONLY and not all of Victoria? 5:04

[@OilBaron100]

Boom! Where do you think that Canberra would sit had it been included on the Capital-City Average graph at the 4:12 mark in the video? Would it be the second most expensive capital city, just as it is right now? Or would it be third or forth most expensive? Where would Hobart sit too?

[@pushpasalunke1428]

HK R U in Melbourne ? V r planning to purchase house in Melbourne. How to reach out u.

[@BK-pl3vy]

Which are the 6 suburbs?

[@ans727]

Boom 💥

[@B33ond]

Will Melbourne set the tone for the rest of aus. Especially Perth ?

[@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK]

@@B33ond I don’t believe so..

[@Themos74]

Even high income earners who have immigrated from the past 7 years aren’t able to afford an average home to live in Australia let alone common man . That is a serious concern. As long as there are influencers like you who promote the narrative that property needs to be seen as pure investment and nothing else , people will very soon be on the streets .

[@R_Ali]

Wouldn’t consider this guy as an influencer. Buyers agents fast becoming worst pests than selling agents.

[@williamcrossan9333]

Indeed, that is a real issue. And I largely agree with you! I think house prices will have to feed into inflation. I.e. if business want workers, they will have to pay up. And that will cause inflation. Not to mention the economic effects of all Australia's capital being used to push existing house prices.

[@cozyrainsounds2639]

Building units in Melbourne is at a cost of 14k per square meter…….as a buyers agent whose been buying apartments in melbourne for 25 years I can assure you that your analysis is wrong. No disrespect but data can be wrong and only deal with buyers agents who touch grass and not tell you to buy in a state that they don’t understand.

[@AridersLifeYT]

lived in all major australian cities, multiple properties owned, its all about to pop and collapse when the investor reforms happens.

[@busyprateek]

Boom🎉

[@seafirecoast]

lol.....boom.... ouch

[@teresazhang3766]

💥 boom

[@JBLegal09]

Don't agree with you PK. The RBA was late to the party in raising interest rates and didn't raise them high enough. If govt wasn't spending then we would be in a recession - perhaps that would be better ...

[@jameslay1348]

Let's increase rates so investors can get deals. Albo must like investors. Look how he's kept migration high and house building low

[@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK]

I think RBA lifted rates too high and government is baling them out otherwise we would be in a recession right now

[@seafirecoast]

@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK its only delaying the inevitable ... buddy, be honest

[@raaghub1723]

There is no way we are going to see low core inflation. Prices have already risen and going to stay elevated. No going back. Inflation has set in due to RBAs poor experiment with slow interest rate hikes.

[@TheGreatVehicle]

Why defend labour poor decisions does it make us feel better to say RBA did not raise interest high enough or fast enough?

[@thomastji]

What a shame that these politicians got paid shit load of money but have absolutely no clue on what they are doing. Hope Albo don't hit his head on the door frame otw out.

[@viniciussrs100]

Moving back to MELBOURNE in 2 months 🙌🙏bye bye QLD

[@rknadella03]

Why?

[@MP-id2po]

Melbourne is finished for a decade. Until this state Labor government is gone, it's going to get worse and worse. The state is broke. But I blame the Liberals for not being a viable opposition to this left-leaning government.

[@fishingphill]

Melbourne's population grew 1.55% from 2023. It's easy to check, more people, more demand.

[@arunsv100]

East or West : Melbourne is best.🎉❤

[@Peter-zv4dx]

Wow such great insight

[@Strickly4Cricketloversonly]

Thank you for sharing this much appreciated 🎉

[@williamcrossan9333]

So basically Melbourne is simply part of the everything bubble, so don't expect another boom anytime soon.

[@Maryam-lx2sz]

Thank you PK😊 What do you think about logal central in Brisbane? Is it a good area to invest?

[@seafirecoast]

many in Brisbane are moving back to melb...

[@RatedR942]

Legend

[@seafirecoast]

more like ...the ...end

[@zengzhao-wealthcreation9813]

boom

[@KabirIslam-g3z]

Thank you, PK. I am still waiting for your Video on the New Perth.

[@seafirecoast]

perth will follow melb in a year... thats the video

[@adelinad3513]

That's just backward looking projections...for the 40 years of boom in this migration country. Consider geopolitics and forward looking analysis and you will get a different picture. Consider that this country is unsustainable without just in time delivery of the food truck to woolies coming from 2000km away. And the parts of the truck and the petrol come from South Asia 😂. En embargo and we are all toast..all migrants will be going to their self sustainable parents homes 😂. 😢

[@shaunbusuttil751]

Boom

[@Mustang85635]

Melbourne will be going down down down further. Finances are getting worse, taxes going up, regulations going up. I don’t see it ending. There is no way.

[@damienantony6133]

Boom

[@seafirecoast]

moob? .. well done buddy

[@vineetchaudhary2064]

Is moray house in southbank a good investment?

[@21staz]

Don’t let the property sprookers from Salvos trick you. If you’re doing it hoping for capital growth, bad investment.

[@vineetchaudhary2064]

good to know. Too late though 😅 hopefully the parking lot appreciates 😂

[@dericofdorking]

Nope

[@vineetchaudhary2064]

How much rental can I hope to get from the place , for a 2br ?

[@rdapigleo]

Rent strike 🇦🇺2025

[@rknadella03]

Too many buyer agents.. making hard

[@tnctradingptyltd58]

boom 💥 in 2026

[@amit0769]

NO

[@jamestan4667]

Boom

[@eldamoza21]

Boom

[@naumanrk]

boom

[@seafirecoast]

moob? .. well done buddy