Battle of Kharkiv II: Russia's Long-Term Strategy and Ukraine's Defensive Dilemmas

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On May 9, Russia initiated a new front in its invasion of Ukraine. The apparent target: Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city. This video explores what we know about the Russian operation thus far and why Russia started it now. We then examine the possible endgame goal of the new front, ranging from capturing the city to a simple fixing operation to freeze Ukrainian troops in place.
0:00 The New Front of the Russian Invasion
0:50 What Exactly Is Happening in Kharkiv?
3:00 Russia's Closing Window of Opportunity
5:13 Is Russia Trying to Capture Kharkiv?
6:58 Is this a Fixing Operation?
12:59 A Buffer Zone with Benefits?
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
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Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Government of Ukraine:
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[@mohamedelhefyan2146]

This is crazy, as someone who studied in Kharkiv seeing these same buildings again but this way is beyond description

[@user-yh1nm1vy3i]

I lived in Kyiv for a bit and I feel the same. It’s insane that people still try to justify this war.

[@m1l3s27]

​@@tomk3732Troll gonna troll, enjoy your petty spending money denominated in ever less valuable Rubles.

[@tomk3732]

@@m1l3s27 LOL, I don't even speak Russian. What truth hurts, huh?

[@TheTiger8753]

@@tomk3732 It's like the Russian posters in Kherson "Russia is here forever" Where are the Russians there now? A Russian forever is counted in months isn't it Ivan ??

[@thedealermusic]

@@tomk3732that sentence doesn’t make sense. Again, if you’re going to troll, use proper English

[@jayhill2193]

Regarding the grey tone / buffer zone, one thing you didn't mention as to why Ukraine needed to dig in much farther from the country border is that Ukraine is not allowed to attack on Russian soil with Western weapons. So aside from homemade drones and old-fashioned artillery, Ukraine's hands were tied whereas Russia could accumulate more and more ressources on their side of the border.

[@pax6833]

The silver lining here is that DC has now said the restriction on attacking Russia is over. So now Ukraine is weapons free on Belgorod oblast. Given that the 'offensive' has already ground to a halt, I think it might be safe to say this was a miscalculation on Putin's part. He didn't gain much, but instead triggered more escalation from NATO.

[@gae_wead_dad_6914]

@@pax6833 Eh, it's more of a "morale" victory Like, have you seen history legends video? That one dumb youtuber who stated "The entire Ukrainian defense collapsed"? That's what they were going for. True stupitdity at it's finest

[@John_shepard]

@@pax6833I feel like the secretary gave the illusion of choice. I didn’t see it as official.

[@jeffersonclippership2588]

It's been frustrating reading media coverage that completely ignores this and makes it seem like the Ukrainians were just negligent. We're lucky to have the ISW and people like William who actually know what they're talking about.

[@u2beuser714]

​@@pax6833 What escalation from nato? So long as nato doesnt send troops into nato i could hardly see any escalation

[@kopyloffandrew]

Correction: the Northern border never has been silent since 2022. It is a frontline indeed

[@dirkoftheblaze2352]

I think he meant in terms of infantry operations. Ukraine’s border has been shelled basically every day since the invasion began.

[@kopyloffandrew]

@@dirkoftheblaze2352 yes and no. Large-scale offensive didn't happen, however small groups try to break in almost on a daily basis. As for the shelling part - that is correct

[@VodkaPandas]

Yeah they not, Ukraine shelled Belgorod, cross the border during election in Russia, Russia is done playing Ukraine little propaganda.

[@mjl1966y]

I like how everybody around Zelynski is wearing body armor while he walks around in a T-shirt.

[@harderway8568]

That pore guy is so broke, he's been wearing that same T-shirt for two years now.

[@SteveJones-gz4vd]

@@harderway8568 High Maint Wife fella

[@davidkottman3440]

​@@harderway8568 LOL, can't even keep up with the claims; broke beggar with 1 T-shirt, or corrupt grifter with many yachts & penthouses!?!

[@ghoraxe9000]

He's got a mithril vest... The same one frodo wore in lord of the rings

[@geofflepper3207]

​​@@harderway8568 No, no, no you silly Russian troll. Didn't you get the memo from upstairs? Russian trolls are supposed to spout out propaganda lying and claiming that the Ukrainian leader is filthy rich from corrupt activities. And here you are saying that he is dirt poor. You're going to be in a heck of a lot of trouble with your boss if he sees what you posted. Maybe if you are lucky you won't be sent to the front for your massive screw-up.

[@GojiMet86]

Lines-On-Map Man bringing the lines on the map again! Doesn't seem like a coincidence that as soon as the American aid package came through, Russia started moving to squeeze out as much as it can before Ukraine can get the tide turns against it favor.

[@dojelnotmyrealname4018]

That seems so short sighted though. Seems like you'd want to move before that happens so you can bunker down.

[@slepp449]

Perhaps they thought that rushing forward and giving headline worthy advances would have increased the chances of the bill passing

[@tanmaypandey4028]

Half of the fuckin aid is going in the pockets of officers and all! After all Ukraine is the most corrupt country in all of Europe (maybe after belarus) also, the tide won't turn now, the problem is not ammo or weapons, but manpower.

[@TheDogGeneral]

Turn the war in their favor ? I don't see that as a contingency if Ukraine were able to do it it would have already done it and all their success is based on heavy subsidies of foreign aid as it is, Europe needs to wake up and realize that Ukraine is their problem. It either increases war preparation spending or gets ready for Russia control the way I see it Europe is asleep at the wheel and has been and has no intention of changing that even with the recent increases in expenditure they are counting on American Management in something in their backyard

[@clause6930]

@@AaSs-ln9mmKharkiv operation and Kherson is “doing shit”?) inflicting up to 530k casualties is “doing shit”?) winning Black Sea battle without an actual navy is “doing shit”? Taking down Kindzhals is “doing shit”?) Shooting down 2 A-50s and Il-23 is “doing shit”?) Destroying 6 TU-23 bombers is “doing shit”?) Taking down nuclear weapon radar is “doing shit”?) Destroying hundreds of aircraft is “doing shit”?) Taking down all tank fleet ruzzians had before 24.02.22 is “doing shit”?) Educate yourself please.

[@cameronspence4977]

I believe this whole Kharkhiv operation is both the fixing in place option, and the stretching ukraine's troops thin option. Whether it will actually work remains to be seen though.

[@timothyrussell4445]

Seems to be working pretty well so far

[@GIGACHAD-cy5jq]

I feel like its impossible to estimate how well it working since those reserves could have helped gaining chasiv yar for example

[@User-jr7vf]

None of that. PU TIN said in a press interview in China that the Kharkhiv operations are meant to create a buffer zone to protect Russia from Ukrainian attacks, he made it clear that the objective is not to take Kharkhiv.

[@cameronspence4977]

@@timothyrussell4445 How could you possibly know if it's working well or not you don't even know what the aim of the operation is in the first place, and it hasn't even been a week since the operation started? Are you telepathic?

[@lagrangewei]

it will work, the question is how long Ukraine has... if Ukraine can drag it for years, it not bad news, if they could last only months, then they need to consider surrender.

[@mm650]

Russia's tactics,for organization reasons, have been a general set of low-level pushes across the entire front. Opening up more fron means more total Ukranian territory falling simly because those pushes can happen over a longer line. That said, I mostly think this is a fixing operation, although your point about the range of tube artillery is well taken.

[@cameronspence4977]

I think it is both

[@Fenrisson]

8:02 - A "Chasiv what?" Pirate "Yarrr"

[@wimdejong5399]

Very enjoyable, thanks William!

[@criminoboy]

I think it's a big jump to credit the recent US Aid package as a having a huge effect on Russian action. Russia has been building up their forces all year, and many analysts were expecting a large Russian offensive this summer.

[@andyreznick]

Agreed. Everyone is trying to read the tea leaves, myself included. Personally, I think Putin is trying for the best look he can get by November, and to convince Trump of a fait accompli. But, it's anyone's guess as to the point of this now, including, I suspect, a lot of the Russian General Staff. Putin is an intelligence technocrat by trade and a criminal boss by choice. He sees Ukraine's allies as insufficiently united and committed (the technocrat) and is trying to capitalize (the crime boss). The whole thing looks rushed - like a dictator screaming at his generals for results. We will see.

[@XxMusclecarsxX]

he says Russia is on a time crunch and I don't buy it. Putin is more than willing to have this war last a decade if he has to. Foreign will run out while russia makes its own weapons

[@Bad_Temper]

This dude is NATO glazer bro, I watch his channel to understand how effeminate men think

[@ethanbrasoveanu8700]

I'm sure it definitely does. Russia prefers to attack while Ukraine is weakened

[@mortvald]

goes to show these arm chair experts, russia's big arrow attack will never come. they have been crippled in ww2 population wise and will not risk too much casualties.

[@asan1050]

William Spaniel Thanks for posting this video

[@user-hl6yp4vc1l]

Very good analysis 👍

[@MostlyPennyCat]

3:22 60 billion plus that other 300 billion they're going to get.

[@apurvd6177]

300 billion?

[@MostlyPennyCat]

@@apurvd6177 The seized Russian funds that they're in the process of giving to Ukraine.

[@MostlyPennyCat]

@@apurvd6177 Plus the 10s or 100s of billions that Europe et al. give to Ukraine every year.

[@begonekneecaps9718]

half that to account for corruption.

[@FullOilBarrel]

@@apurvd6177 frozen russian assets tat was given to ukraine recently

[@MemesOfProduction69]

I love a good lunchtime upload!! Appreciate yhe content, as always!

[@iltacchinodigitale]

Great analysis as usual! Thanks for your work. I would love to hear your point of you regarding the recent protests in Georgia, and how that could play a role in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. If you think that is a good subject for your channel, I believe it must be a very interesting video to watch. Peace

[@HillelAlon]

Thanks

[@Hoodlum555]

There is nothing better than some 'lines on maps' to go with my morning coffee :) I enjoy your videos, I feel edukated

[@KarelLernout]

If you were educated, then you'd probably know it's written with a C!

[@Hoodlum555]

@@KarelLernout if you had a sense of humour you may not have replied to this post.

[@juliantheapostate8295]

@@KarelLernout 'eduCated'?

[@andersgrassman6583]

👍😆 (I once received a graded philosophy exam at university, concerning argumentative analysis, a matter riddled with potential pitfalls, where the only comment was a spelling correction of the astronomer Johannes Kepler's name, which I had misspelled Keppler. That felt weird.)

[@Hoodlum555]

@@juliantheapostate8295 your so smart!

[@GeldUndKokaine-kc1hp]

I like your channel, good job

[@mihailos8701]

Thank you for this video, and for your work in general, I appreciate your efforts

[@sleepybokchoy]

Hi Will ! 👋 Thanks for the lines on maps!

[@Nathan-Roman]

Here before the bots for once

[@u2beuser714]

Same, these ukrainian bots are too loud

[@orktv4673]

First kremlinbot has arrived I see

[@nicklindberg90]

​@@u2beuser714🇷🇺🤖🤢

[@pmakins95]

@@orktv4673 Shovels too strong, so you call people kremlin bots xD

[@benparrish9547]

Lmao xD

[@AricBolf]

It seems to me, Kiev could ‘conscript’ 18-25 year olds into back line only positions serving like 5 days a month. 3 days are used filling in back line positions and 2 days of training. And instead of all of these conscripts serving at the same time, they are spread across 10 groups serving concurrently. That would free up fighters to go to the front like other countries are considering doing.

[@jeffersonclippership2588]

Good rule of thumb is that if you or I, randos on the internet, have thought of this, it's a safe bet that the people who's job is to think of this kind of stuff already have.

[@rjScubaSki]

Ukraine will have to throw everyone they have into action before any other countries get involved beyond small special forces deployments realistically

[@christopherborer5567]

That could work, but the resources and manpower required to do that would make it not worth it. Generally, if you're going to conscript you want people to stay in the armed forces for a while because it takes time to get them up to speed on how things work. Even if it's a simple job, someone will always find a way to screw it up

[@stupidburp]

I would make it for 20-25 year olds. But also expand it to everyone regardless of gender or fitness. Give everyone a couple of years after high school to continue studying and gain some civilian job related skills. Subsidize the costs for that post secondary education, especially in fields most needed by the country. Two years means a focus primarily on technical and vocational training but even associates liberal arts programs would be an option. Then during the 20-25 year old period they could have a national service requirement for everyone lasting a year or two of active service and the rest as a reservist. This should include civil defense training, some basic military training, and training in a national service job, then several months to a year of service work. This might include further military training and service for those who meet the standards and military needs. But could also involve training in other national service jobs that support the urgent needs of the country such as in medical care, logistics, law enforcement, construction, or manufacturing related to government needs. This will create a large pool of trained workers and military recruits. This then can be drawn upon in the 25 year old and older group for active service on the front lines or in critical rear area shortages on a rotating basis with relatively short duration in harm’s way because of the large pool. It simultaneously would create a war economy focused civilian life with opportunities provided for internships and jobs that would support overall morale and productivity.

[@carlosandleon]

@@jeffersonclippership2588you’ll be surprised how much major organizations miss things. That’s why intel made a portal where even janitors or customers can put forward their ideas and argue with top execs anonymously online.

[@jeffreywj7773]

Nice overview. This is like playing a game of Risk, only with real armies. Thanks.

[@geraint8989]

Anders Puck Nielsen’s argument is more persuasive: there is no reason to assume that Russian military plans are good plans.

[@thesecretformula1337]

Absolutely brilliant work mate, ta

[@OutletVibes]

I'm not a general or military advisor but I've played enough strategy games to know pulling units from the Chasiv Yar direction is the worst thing Ukraine could do. They'd be better off pulling a platoon from each division along the donetsk river to consolidate them up north. You need to move FPV drones south to defend the river but they have significant manpower south they can tap into as Russia has mostly ignored the Kherson region for the last year. Without Russia sending a significant force south for an amphibious invasion, the risk is low. I also can't see Russia committing a significant force in the region as they've moved 50,000+ troops into the Kharkiv region. imo I see war like chess. They've made their move and it's time to capitalize on it. Whether that's total defense or launching an offensive of their own in the Kherson region. I definitely think it's time Ukraine expands it's enlistment if it isn't able to stabilize the front within the next month.

[@KiraNt4]

In your games did you have to take in account terrible corruption, soldiers' war fatigue and 15% of the army as deserters? That's how it is in Ukraine now

[@OutletVibes]

@@KiraNt4 you should try out heart of iron 4 it’s an amazingly detailed game.

[@OutletVibes]

Steel division 2 and warno are also great games to look at.

[@lagrangewei]

if ukraine unit are the same, what you said is logical, but they are not. the unit in the south do not have the same supporting elements in their command structure, they are not mobile and so cannot be more north without abandoning their equipment. support unit are expensive, not all military unit have the same mobility. they are really there as a buffer to delay any attack, but they are not equiped to face off with the enemy, if you take them away from a natural defensive river, their odds of survival would be bad.

[@fandomguy8025]

@@KiraNt4 People often mention Ukraine's corruption but they never mention Russia's sort of cancels it out. Remember that these used to be part of the same country & Russia is well known for being a "Mafia state." with the whole falling out of a window epidemic. (Plus, other things like Russian generals selling propellers of ships for money) The major differences between the two is Russia is bigger & Ukraine's elections seem more legit.

[@ShadowOfThePit]

Interesting! So the second theory is basically "Fleet in Being" but on land, is it not?

[@marlenfras5490]

Good reporting. Thank you. Strong democracy.

[@DonaldPrizwan]

honestly have no clue why they have waited this long to begin the special buffer operation and extend the distance of total frontline. lines on maps and such.

[@sircatangry5864]

Because they planned to do it later, with more soldiers and resources, but aid package was approved earlier than expected so they rushed the entire operation. Remember those talks about "mega russian offensive" somewhere in summer? This should've been it.

[@nicholasgutierrez9940]

Same reason as in WW1. Russia had more population than the entirety of the central powers. But could only afford to equip a fraction of that. Russia can field millions but that doesn’t mean they can also arm them. War is about the management of logistics not strategy anymore. It’s why Russia only used 150k troops in the initial invasion. Because that’s what they could arm. Except that was based off of lies and was more like 100k in reality.

[@cameronspence4977]

​@@sircatangry5864Well that, and that they simply didn't have the extra troops to do it before

[@yellowtunes2756]

​@@sircatangry5864what aid package has to do with anything? Russia is still out-producing the entire NATO and therefore outgunning Ukraine. Since 2022 some people were talking about some potential big Russian offensive and some pro Ukrainian NPCs were celebrating every time nothing happened

[@sircatangry5864]

@@yellowtunes2756 So this is why their invasion stopped when they reached first town in Kharkiv oblast?

[@erikriza7165]

I lost track. Is this the third day yet of the Special Military Operation?

[@AngelGarcia-zm8od]

Yes, ukraine is winning...

[@glintongordon6811]

Absolutely nobody in Russia said anything about 3 days

[@AngelGarcia-zm8od]

@@glintongordon6811 let him cope...

[@erikriza7165]

@@glintongordon6811 Maybe i am wrong. I thought I remembered someone in Russia saying that it would take about three days. Or maybe someone else said it, and it wasn't true. I dont remember. That was a couple of years ago.

[@daniser87]

@@erikriza7165false memory. Mark Milley said that.

[@hjalmarfreidenvall1655]

Neat

[@efghggdxlmfn33]

Attritional wars require their own ‘Art of War’ and are fought with a ‘force-centric’ approach, unlike wars of manoeuvre which are ‘terrain-focused’. They are rooted in massive industrial capacity to enable the replacement of losses, geographical depth to absorb a series of defeats, and technological conditions that prevent rapid ground movement. In attritional wars, military operations are shaped by a state’s ability to replace losses and generate new formations, not tactical and operational manoeuvres. The side that accepts the attritional nature of war and focuses on destroying enemy forces rather than gaining terrain is most likely to win.

[@Who-Dat42]

This channel needs more maps under lines, and that's a hill I will die on.

[@user-ve1zf6fh4d]

If there was ever a time for the French and baltic states, to step in and help... It's now.... surely

[@Gwyrddu]

I've been hearing reports that Russia has ended their Avdiivka offensive including their attacks on Chasiv Yar. It doesn't work as a fixing operation when Russia lets off pressure elsewhere to fight in Kharkiv.

[@KapitainZino]

Very interesting video, thank you William! A mast see channel here!

[@Bacontruffle]

This move by the Kremlin puzzles me. Like you said, the forces are nowhere near enough to occupy the city. But then again, neither were they during the "special military operation". Getting stuck in yet another slog (which is the most likely outcome, when you consider the tactical situation around Kharkiv, and how last time went) does nothing for the Kremlin. Because of this, the idea of this being a grey zone occupation exercise doesn't make much sense either. A fixing operation - while a possible explanation - comes with a massive problem: 50.000 troops are a *massive* investment for a move like this. And losses against an entrenched position - not to mention heavily urbanized area - will likely be high. Whatever gains the Kremlin hopes to gain at the cost of these losses, remains a mystery to me. The most likely (to me, at this time) explanation is that the Kremlin is frustrated at the state of the war. Fighting massive battles over tiny population centers like Avdiivka doesn't exactly help to win the war, and makes Russia look weak. (because it is.) I suspect this move is part political (technically taking a large chunk of territory - even if effectively dead man's land - makes Russia look stronger and perhaps the Kremlin hopes to have a demoralizing effect on the West - wrongfully so) part... "f*ck it, we can't win like this, might as well try a full-scale push across all fronts and see what happens" hail mary. It wouldn't be at all unlike the Kremlin to make massive bets that will either turn out amazingly or - most likely - disastrously.

[@NikolayBychkovRus]

Man, this is still a reconnaissance in battle. I bet next week we will see new area will became hot.

[@heitors.3917]

If it truly is a fixed operation, than they it's unlikely the will actually attack, just keep Ukraine busy in the region with small skirmishes and the threat of a real offensive if Ukraine fails to respond to those. The higher number of soldiers in the region shouldn't be that much of a problem either as they likely would not be so useful in other parts of the front due to logistics or other tatical constraints. At least, that's the rational reasoning that could justify it

[@Bacontruffle]

@@NikolayBychkovRus could be, could not According to Ukrainian intel about 20.000/50.000 of the Russian forces have been committed already

[@Bacontruffle]

@@heitors.3917 Logistic motivations actually make a lot of sense. Ukraine has hit Rostov-on-don a lot the past 2 years but Belgorod and Kursk have comparitively remained pretty intact. Not to mention, the stress on the Southern and Eastern regions must be massive for the Russians.

[@justliberty4072]

When you have advantages in materiel and personnel, it pays to spread out the opponent as much as possible. Opening a new front favors the larger force.

[@imnackeredsirnackered948]

Russia has been mobilizing for a long time. My guess is that since they might have a manpower advantage, they are going to launch multiple offensives to vastly over stretch Ukraine's defenses/ reserves and supplies. If they launch a small offensive in Kharkiv, Sumy and maybe Chernihiv then this could overwhelm Ukraine defenders in the Donbass region forcing them to give up the Donbass in order to preserve their three other oblasts. However, this relies on Russia not only have a large army in its other fronts but also a large reserve force and then forces to spare for their other small offensives.

[@rmdomainer9042]

"multiple offensives" sounds like an utter failure. Like early 2022.

[@Smarcue2025]

@@rmdomainer9042militaries learn, and the Russian army is not the same as it was in 2022. They have an overwhelming manpower advantage now

[@rmdomainer9042]

@@Smarcue2025 Literally the "Russia Stronk" meme.

[@Smarcue2025]

@@rmdomainer9042 well yea theyre using scouting parties to attack kharkov while still having more than 20,000+ soldiers behind the border waiting to be deployed lol they have stupid numbers

[@m1l3s27]

Not really, you shouldn't underestimate Russian manpower advantages. Doesn't mean they've suddenly become tactical geniuses, but it's become obvious Ukraine is having manpower issues, and unlike Russia, they're not recruiting from jails or pressuring non ethnic Russians from far provinces into service. Is that fair? Obviously not. However nothing is fair in war. Russia has 3x Ukraine's population, and with Putins successful retention of the presidency, following the "election," he has more sway in increasing mobilization. ​@@rmdomainer9042

[@PeanutsDadForever]

Thanks for another great video!🇦🇺👴🏻

[@AIAudiobooks411]

now...

[@busboy262]

Don't forget that we get to watch this summer why the Kakhovka Dam was built in the 1st place. Virtually no agriculture will exist in Crimea anymore. And the few Russian war tourists will have to bring their own water. At least until the water - boat/train/truck arrives. Russians love a good desert.

[@proatplanes]

Je ne sais pas pourquoi je parle français, je ne sais même pas parler français

[@ogdocvato]

Vive la France! 🇺🇦🇫🇷

[@andrewbrignole7131]

No piano music used on this one - Thank You!

[@toby9999]

My first was where will you draw the lines....

[@MrSlientdeath]

I think russia wants to bring Karhkiv in the range of their tube artillery.

[@nekoill]

Aren't you that guy who was gloating about Ukrainian INGENEOUS tactic to "give Russia dilemmas" like half a year ago or so? If that's the case, you are among thre last people one should listen to with regards to "Russia's long-term strategy" and whatnot, my guy 😸

[@Mitch1371Tube]

Now show the New boarder!

[@andersgrassman6583]

Thank you William for bringing up the possible economic motive for now attacking Kharkiv. It ought to be obvious, but I haven't heard it somewhere else. After all, this is measurable with hitting Ukraine's grain exports. And since Russia now seems to be planning for a very long war, this economic warfare motive makes even more sense.

[@MsMommyMemer]

Battle of Kharkiv II: Useless tactics boogaloo

[@keegandecker4080]

There’s an awful lot of attacks for it to be a feint, seems more like a secondary objective to the Donbas

[@BazzBrother]

when all attacks are tasked with success than the ones that fail are simply reclassified as feints.

[@keegandecker4080]

@@BazzBrother honestly it reminds me of the Brusilov offensive from World War I

[@gideonmele1556]

They want to take it eventually so it looks like a case of “push as far as you can” while forcing Ukraine to divert resources to it. It could also be a probing attack or simply a play with what they have at the moment since it’s mostly a slow crawl near stalemate.

[@nicholasgutierrez9940]

They are doing recon in force now. As long as Russia can arm men, their frontline will continue to grow. They really messed up in the beginning but their industry is leaning more towards military equipment now.

[@samuelhaldane4717]

Why do you wrongly accent the word Kharkiv on the final syllable? It's accented on the first syllable in both Ukrainian and Russian.

[@demon_lover9139]

That zooming in and out effect on a foreground subject nauseates me when I'm hungover. (grabs desk tight)

[@p.d.stanhope7088]

Add the recent Putin & Xi - "Yes, we're still best buds & the U.S. is yadda yadda," meeting.

[@GizzyDillespee]

Are you sure that's how it went?

[@urdnal]

Will, Will, Will 😏 _Clearly_ this Kharkiv push is a rush to achieve some kind of victory prior to the *2025* Victory Day parade.

[@Gametheory101]

Oh my bad

[@giovanni-ed7zq]

@@Gametheory101 the reason why the russians were able to push in 3km or so is because ukraine isnt allowed to use american artillery and rockets on russian soil. so they have to wait till russian troops actually cross and occupy ukrainian land. in the grand scheme about 20k or so russian troops isnt enough to take karkiv or sumy. i believe its a fixing operation to deny reserves to chasiv yar or avdiivka direction. the issue also is ukraine didnt build defences all the way to the border because its in the artillery zone. you dont want to sit troop concentrations in the artillery zone. its the same reason why the russian legion was able to go across into russia because they dont defend in the artillery zone. i believe the russians intended to rush the kharkiv as well as chasiv yar and avdiivka fronts because they wanted to take as much land as possible before ukraine got substantially more artillery shells. that said with relaxing of rationing and arrival of some artillery shells, its likely too late. i dont think they anticipated the us pre-shipping critical supplies to poland before the president signed the bill. the rising casualty numbers for russia tells you they are pushing more and more men in. its up 50 percent from the normal 1k a day from ukrainian reports.

[@alyu6351]

@@giovanni-ed7zq yeah yeah. The "ukraine isnt allowed to use american artillery and rockets on russian soil" is their "only" problem

[@giovanni-ed7zq]

@@alyu6351 the talk changed last few days so the wording is actually they can only use it for defensive and not offensive. blinken changed his wording also. i believe with russia exploiting the terms to their advantage in next week or so, the americans likely change their stance saying if its for defensive they they can hit russian troop concentrations on other side of border within 90km of border as long as its not followed up by a counter attack into russian territory is the reports floating out there. so russia may get a surprise in following week. and russia likely get caught with their pants down since they just casually stationing large troops concentrations on the other side like they have some shield.

[@giovanni-ed7zq]

@@alyu6351 its gonna be interesting for sure with ukraine talking to americans about this. as they could easily stop the russian advances before they get into ukraine if they allowed defensive strikes on military targets within 90km of ukraine border moving towards ukraine. its been noted that americans saying what was designed to be used s de-escalation, russia taking advantage to escalate thinking they have a free pass to attack and be agressive so it might lead to a surprise and mass casualty event for russia in a week.

[@gbeziuk]

No, Russia does not feel a time pressure.

[@louisgiokas2206]

A concomitant consequence of this operation may be a speeding up of the deployment of troops from various European countries to Ukraine. There has already been an offer from some Baltic countries. Frankly, I think the US should plan on basing two full heavy mechanized corps in Eastern Europe (Poland, Finland, the Baltics, etc.). During the Cold War (I miss the Cold War) the US had between 300K and 500K troops in Europe. The level today is 50K. Large deployments in Europe would also be a big help for recruitment into the US Army. If the US did this, it would free up troops from those "front line" states to go into Ukraine as backup to Ukranian forces. This would allow Ukraine to move more forces to the front line, with substantial allied reserves to immediately back them up if something happened.

[@natedowns]

Wasn't this the same channel that said Russians troops were out of ammo and were using shovels 😂

[@mabeSc]

All of his videos are unwatchable after you've seen 3 of them. Just repeating repeating and repeating. And even with so much repeating you still don't even get half a clear idea of what is going on.

[@kinghunternick1365]

More lines on maps

[@matthewn1805]

wow, such an original comment, how did you manage to think it!

[@kinghunternick1365]

@@matthewn1805 just what the people want

[@eagleadjusters2938]

​

[@robgrey6183]

Lines on maps = billions for the grifters in Kiev.

[@bishopofsahs]

@@matthewn1805 It’s not hard to think

[@TheAsiandramafreak]

This is the perfect line on a map video…lol

[@blue_diamond_gem]

More content

[@DannoGames-xz2vl]

Army Group North has 50,000 soldiers. Not enough to take Kharkiv. When Russia has 100,000 troops in the North, then the move into Kharkiv may happen.

[@howtoappearincompletely9739]

Didn't some Russian source say they'd need 300K to take Kharkiv? They might get those numbers eventually, but not soon.

[@gideonmele1556]

It still pushes Ukraine to divert resources which looks to be the Russian goal

[@rmdomainer9042]

@@howtoappearincompletely9739 Yes, Solovyov said that Russia is unable to take the city.

[@geoffworley5275]

Russia merely has to advance artillery within range of the city.

[@tomk3732]

Rapid re-deployment.

[@KarelLernout]

This analysis is BELOW moderate, sorry to say. Some facts you "forget": 1. The Russians wanted to negotiate a peace-agreement that would be respected (not like Minsk II where both Merkel and Hollande both admitted they never intended to apply it and it was just needed to prepare Ukraine for war). The Russians withdrew from Kiev because this was one of the actions agreed upon the peace deal in march 2022, that was until Boris Johnsson flew to Kiev to blow up the agreement... 2. You show Zelensky in Kiev on Feb 23, 2022 but somehow everyone doesn't want to mention that Zelensky blew up the Budapest Memorandum on Feb 19, 2022 (by begging for US nukes on the Munich Security Conference). After Ukraine killed ethnic russians in Donbass since 2014, this was the final barrier being taken away to end the killing of CIVILIANS in Ukraine with heavy warfare for 8 years before 2022... 3. According to the UN charter articles 106 and 107, the Russians (as legal inheritants of the Sovjet Union) have the right to intervene in Ukraine (among other countries) if there is a threat by neo-nazis to ethnic russians. Whether there is such threat will be evaluated, but I strongly recommend watching the French documentary by top-reporter Paul Moreira for Special Investigation made in 2016 first... kzbin.info/www/bejne/d6eQep-oodWtbq8 4. Last but not least, maybe you should listen to "confessions" that the White House advisor made in 2015 on the Chicago Council on Global Affairs during the Q&A session... kzbin.info/www/bejne/h5avppKvrt9mqsU

[@sajuente8235]

nice russian troll :D

[@mountainjew1474]

Bruh. Wall of text that nobody going to read. Russia is killing civilians in eastern Ukraine since 2014. COS THEY STARTED WAR!!!!!

[@metalfire86able]

We need to read USSR GERMAN strategy during WW2, it very and critical position before big operation to start.

[@Yuattas]

Considering pro ukraine russians were just attacking belogrod i dont think its been an inactive front

[@DanBlabbers]

Only $12 billion will actually be for weapons and they need to be manufactured. It won’t make a difference.

[@berlinkozyreva]

Most of the equipment being given was made decades ago. Most in storage The money is being used to make new equipment which will be used by US military

[@superspies32]

And worse, Israrl already prepaid so all weapons companies are overclocked their line for Israel, it will taje at least few years before Ukraine received new batch, as if Israel finished Gaza campaign fast.

[@berlinkozyreva]

@@superspies32 are you saying they are going to make new Bradley's and M 777 Howitzers for Ukraine? Because that is what is being sent.

[@superspies32]

@@berlinkozyreva youtube constantly deleted my comments. @@berlinkozyreva 155mm arty shells, missiles for Patriot (this thing can be solved temporarily since Israel retired them all last month), ammunitions for soldiers, for Bradleys, air to ground missiles and bombs for planes. Israel already emptied entire stockpile and prepaid those. They buy so much so that Lockheed Martin stock doubled its price instantly and their CEO host giant party inside their HQ.

[@superspies32]

@@berlinkozyreva @@berlinkozyreva 155mm arty shells, missiles for Patriot (this thing can be solved temporarily since Israel retired them all last month), ammunitions for soldiers, for Bradleys, air to ground missiles and bombs for planes. Israel already emptied entire stockpile and prepaid those. They buy so much so that Lockheed Martin stock doubled its price instantly and their CEO host giant party inside their HQ. KZbin delete my comments 4rd time

[@sadafhusain2059]

To me 50k troops is no where enough to take a city like kharkiv judging by they needed 100k+ to take much smaller bakhmut. they mostly doing a diversionary attack to take troops away from donbass front since donbass is the bare minimum Russia needs to call the whole thing a success

[@tomk3732]

Ukraine no longer has troop numbers...

[@sadafhusain2059]

@@tomk3732 they can still cause a lot of damage with artillery and fpv drones in a defensive scenario... Also troops are not only use for offence but also for manning occupied territory. At max Russia will take territories to bring kharkiv inside shelling range and shell it for months before they actually try to take it. Thats what they do usually....

[@yellowtunes2756]

It doesn't matter how many soldiers Russia has there. The more important thing is how many soldiers does Ukraine have in comparison to Russia in that sector

[@tomk3732]

@@sadafhusain2059 maybe. But given the state of UA army Russia may just go for the city or for say Sumy region.

[@mountainjew1474]

​@@tomk3732given state of Russian state West and China needs to start negotiations about spheres of influence. Ural being dividing line.

[@KeepingitRiowithGringoSuave]

What is missing here is a discussion of how this so-called buffer zone in Ukraine will likely turn into a killing zone of Russian troops. These troops were able to assemble in the relative safety inside the Russian border. With a huge wave of ammo coming into Ukraine from the U.S., how in the world does it benefit the Russians to put their troops inside Ukraine where Ukrainians can rain steel on them without having to restrict their weapon usage? Also missing in this discussion is how the Russians have already suffered devastating losses of their professional soldiers over two years of war. Now, they are sending relatively untrained soldiers into a killing zone in Ukraine. I don't see the logic here.

[@foseninfo8954]

Because u make assumptions and then fail to see the logic. Could it be ur assumptions are not correct?

[@MrLou345]

Everyone is missing a few key points - Russia might have manpower advantage yes, but they sure as hell don't have the number of tanks, planes, cruise missiles and armoured vehicles they had at the beginning of the war. You bring 15,000 soldiers with no hardware, you get 15,000 dead people REAL quick. Now 15,000 tanks, that's a different thing altogether. I have been to Kharkov many times and been to the border of Russia. Just open fields and large farm land, but once you get to the city of Kharkov, people are everywhere.

[@tomk3732]

Yes, they have now more equipment.

[@davidl.7317]

Russia will lose yet another war. Putin has made a terrible mistake.

[@seeitasitis]

Are you on ground war? How you knows that have you ever heard about drones

[@yastyman]

"but they sure as hell don't have the number of tanks, planes, cruise missiles" lol... you are pure relict! wow!

[@seeitasitis]

@@yastyman your hoping that they don't have equipment but they do have so all your hopes will just stay in your head untill you come to reality

[@samstewart4807]

hey guys- rumble only has1 commerical att he begining of each video- not 1 video every 5 minutes

[@SinnycoolGames]

thank you! 2 many of these channels act like we live in Ukraine and dont explain as much as you. appreciate it

[@keeperofthecheese]

Russia knows that the bulk of Ukraine's missile systems are in the eastern and southern theatres. Kharkivs defences are mainly trench and mechanised infantry based. So Ukraine's going to have to shift hardware north fairly fast to stop a salient from developing.

[@nicholasbunio]

Putin doesn't have the men or equipment to take Kharkiv city. Even Russian MoD says they'd need at least 350,000 men to take the city. Which is about 60% of their entire deployed army in Ukraine. At best it's a buffer zone to stop attacks into Belgorod.

[@thefirstkingdogo1126]

Where did you get this?

[@nicholasbunio]

@@thefirstkingdogo1126 reread my comment plz

[@alexvaulin1140]

Yea, you forgot to say that Putin out of missiles, tanks, economy collapsing only shovels left

[@nicholasbunio]

@@thefirstkingdogo1126 reread the comment plz

[@nicholasbunio]

@@alexvaulin1140 so you're what, disagreeing with Russian MoD's own assessment?? :D :D And btw... why hasn't Russia taken all of Donbas, let alone Chasiv Yar? Why mobilize the economy and (per RT this past week) need to increase tank production and refurbishments by 350%?

[@KirenKK-te7pb]

It may end up as a baited long term EU/ NATO strategy too.

[@thomasfailure3612]

Why only 1 of the reasons as a motive?

[@thornshar]

Fourth possibility: Russia doesn't have much of a strategy, except "push harder", and this is it. Lapin is rumored to be the general in charge of the Kharkiv offensive, after all, and he's not the Russian general held in highest regard by military experts.

[@edwinhuang9244]

Given that Russia paid dearly from the "We'll push into Ukraine and win" mentality, I have doubts. Because that would mean that RUssia has learned nothing from the entire conflict. Which... If that's the case... will most likely make every competent analysis question reality.

[@leight420]

this video should be named battle of cope: missinformed westerners still in denial

[@robertmoore3982]

Yes, and it’s depressing. People are too controlled here

[@clarkjanes3094]

If only the UA and its allies had not taken their eyes off the Kerch bridge...

[@aichujohnson8444]

It's "HAR-keef" not "har-KEEF". Stress is on the first syllable.

[@Agamon]

_________MAPS-----------------------

[@IronWarrior86]

Blinken played guitar in Kiev as a poke in the eye of Russia.

[@mjl1966y]

The most important strategic theater is Crimea. Russia does not like its Navy being pushed back to coastal Russian waters. Occupying Kharkiv would be a nightmare. Watch.

[@Bird_McBride]

They'll never get near Crimea

[@ckm-mkc]

Some of the "grey zone" is actually on the other side of a river, so it makes no sense to build defenses there.....

[@DisEnchantedPersons]

How do you know what Putin is thinking or planning?

[@oleksandrshymanskyi1129]

did you even fucking bother to watch the actual video? He literally stresses the fact that NOBODY knows what kremlin has planned

[@timmommens901]

Jake Broe Birthday NAFO 69th campaign 😊 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦✌✌✌✌🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

[@mike4480]

… and Thanks for the detailed update on the situation, William .. 💙💛💙

[@UTIBE5]

3:13 bro speaking about 61 we've heard it time and again that it's less than 20bn that would actually land in Ukraine hands and less than 15 would be dedicated to military. 50% of that money is going back to USA

[@mauritsbol4806]

Looks to me not like the intentions is Kharkiv. To me it looks like initially to retake the gains of Ukraine in Kkharkiv oblast in 2022, and to increase the frontline length.

[@mountainjew1474]

Nowhere near enough Russian troops have amased near Kharkiv to take such huge city.

[@johndoeyedoe]

You know, as a professor, you have never actalually been in a trench. You havent had to deal with wounded or mentally scarred service personal. Never seen what happens when a barrel breaches on a 155 mm howitzer. Be glad. Thank you for the information update and the work you do.

[@fertfert4661]

Мне интересно, реально остались упыри, считающие, что Украина может победить? Изначально ж было всё ясно, простая математика. Только переговоры могут спасти то население Украины, что ещё не полегло под снарядами в наспех вырытых окопах.

[@dt2985]

Of the 61 billion "Ukraine package" only a small fraction will go directly to Ukraine. There is no window of Opportunity.

[@graemekeeley4497]

Correct Very little of the huge US Congress-approved funds for Ukraine get to the front line A large share of the money in the aid bills is spent in the United States, paying for American factories and workers to produce the various weapons that are either shipped to Ukraine or to replenish the U.S. weapons stocks the Pentagon has drawn on during the war. Much of the U.S. aid has gone toward providing weapons systems, training, and intelligence The magnitude of U.S. aid to Ukraine in the latter part of the conflict has done little to stop Russian military success in Ukraine's Eastern Regions

[@johnpiers2786]

The Russians might be betting on the eastern frontline collapsing before going for Kharkiv. I think they will become more aggressive if Ukraine's situation deteriorates before the aid arrives or may just pull back if things hold. Which is why the manpower issue is maybe a lot bigger problem than weapon shortage.

[@AstroJunnk]

HAHHAHAHA Dude is talking shitt. 61 billion wont arrive or change anything on ground.

[@CommissarMitch]

Did not someone make a calculation that if Russia kept the current expansion it would take them 45 years to capture all of Ukraine?

[@ScottishAtheist]

And how many young men lives?

[@masoodjalal1152]

The fighting is always intense the day before it ends. Azerbaijan was moving very slow and then Armenia surrendered. Azerbaijan didnt have to fight for all the territory. Simply Armenian troops left and Azerbaijan took control. There will come a breaking point in this war and it will be sudden like Armenia when everyone was surprised when it collapsed.

[@ReichLife]

Which is laughable calculation, just as William's land gains %. Lands gains were near non-existing during WW1 for 4 years. And on last year they increased by hundreds of thousands %.

[@Oblivisci........]

As the Ukrainian soldiers have said before, "We might be in trouble if they weren't so stupid." 😂😂😂

[@tomk3732]

If we did same calculation for WWI we get 100 years....

[@alex_zetsu]

Why be aggressive with rockets before they arrive? If you have a stockpile of 3,000 and aren't getting them replaced, you feel really silly using all of them on medium value targets if a golden opportunity appears a week later. And if you have 3,000 and are getting replacements by November... it doesn't make sense to have use them all on medium value targets and then find a high value one the next week. In both cases, you want to keep just enough to be able to exploit a future opportunity.

[@ih8people]

1. Your enemy knows you're getting more soon 2. Your enemy does not know exactly how many do you have right now 3. A "medium value target" can later turn out to be a very high value target because of a chain of events that nobody could foresee. War is always unpredictable, so you use your best judgement when deciding whether to strike or to wait 4. You need to keep pressure on the enemy so it would either have to lose valuable assets or dedicate resources to defend them

[@alex_zetsu]

I acknowledge a "medium value target" might turn out to be high value, but if you wouldn't shoot it in a world without replacement rockets because you don't think it's worth it, why would you shoot it between now and November in a world you get replacements in November? Or whenever the delivery is. My point is that they're getting aggressive while still waiting for the ammo.

[@Douglas.Scott.McCarron]

When and who thought the line was just the eastern one? Seriously dude?

[@jerryb.9754]

American policy of not using our weapons to fire into Russia is another mistake. Russian troops were assembling on border but Ukraine could not destroy them when they were most vulnerable. However, Ukraine had advance warning but since all their best troops have been killed, due to American policy, they were unable to take effective action.

[@muhammadjijosahaidi1331]

Before the special military operations, Ukrainian force already to attack Donbass region@ Lugansk and Donestk republic...after this 2 Republic want to separate from Ukraine regime...

[@polarper8165]

Ukraine has poor defensive planning?

[@thefirstkingdogo1126]

Can't play chess with few pieces

[@lorycotiga4231]

Scarsissima

[@RNA0ROGER]

The problem with this thesis is that most or all the aid funding is going to find its way to Ukraine. It will most likely go to US military spending.

[@andersgrassman6583]

Yes, 80% of the money will stay in the USA, buying new weapons with the latest tech, replacing old stock like ATACAM missiles, that are 30 years old and were scheduled for destruction - at additional cost! The Ukranians now scrap them for free, sort of. ;-) It's the same in Europe with F16 fighters. They were scheduled to be replaced by F35 anyway, so why not use them for their intended purpose in Ukraine?! Not everything, but most of what Ukraine receives is "hand me downs" weapons.

[@streetjustice4287]

I hope his band name is Blinken182

[@roystewart4386]

There is a general feeling that Russia does not have sufficient manpower or military hardware to capture Kharkiv, regardless of new intake. These new troops are semi-trained and lack experience. We see the losses experienced this last week of up to 1400 per day. In the interim, Ukraine is giving Russia major headaches in Crimea, attacking Bal beck Airfield and destroying costly airframes. What about other targets in Russia. There is a probability that USA will allow Ukraine to use longrange weaponry into Russia like Britain and France. This should seriously take the war into Russia and not only drones to refineries as presently the case.

[@masoodjalal1152]

Unfortunately, I would take numbers provided by Ukraine with a grain of salt. They have constantly given up huge numbers that were later found to be false. The North offensive isnt about taking Karkhiv that is known to everyone, it is about diverting resources and troops from the south so Russia can advance faster. USA allowing their weapons to attack Russia might trigger Russia to fire their weapons inside NATO countries. Remeber, you are not the only one playing ball here. If NATO weapons can strike into Russia without triggering nuclear war, so can Russian weapons strike into NATO countries without triggering nuclear war.

[@Mwaller4413]

That's a joke. Watching too much western biased vids. If they take Kharkiv their essentially done for

[@alexvaulin1140]

If you divide numbers that comes from ukraine ministry of defense by 8 to 10 you will get real numbers and everything will have more sense about russian moves

[@sircatangry5864]

​@masoodjalal1152So if it is so good for Russia, why wasn't Ocheretyne situation exploited? So there are indeed no reserves in Russia to exploit the opportunity to break Ukrainian defense lines

[@nicklindberg90]

➖ on 🗺️