Bayes' Theorem for Everyone 04 - Prior Probability

[@walawala147]

Bayes’ shows us so much about reasoning. I really want everyone to understand Bayes’ so that we can communicate better.

[@drnvz]

Thank you so much Nat - this is amazing stuff. I was dreading revising for my upcoming exam. This has made sense, been CRYSTAL clear and was truly interesting and I am really enthused to find out more!

[@dibrov4bor]

So now we end up with your statement in the beginning. All peas contain only true or uncertain statements. If some pea has a false statement it eliminates from the set. That series was a great help. Thank you!

[@marklowe9799]

This is intense stuff man, I'm really enjoying it. Well presented.

[@mkbsbsbs]

This is great. Thanks NAT. Do you have any published video explanations for LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION

[@daanush468]

1:52 Loved it when I figured it out as a kid. Never thought that I'd be studying it in Maths. Kudos!

[@walawala147]

The realization that Bayes' theorem is the defining mechanism behind knowledge has changed me... for the better I hope.

[@walawala147]

Thanks, your desire to learn more makes my day.

[@CarlosRBAzevedo]

That's indeed a subtle yet profound consequence of Bayesian statistics. I just read "A Conversation with David Blackwell" Statist. Sci. Volume 1, Number 1 (1986), 40-53, where he said just the same: all data are valuable and we shouldn't discard them just because we have not properly randomized the mechanism to obtain them. Awesome series, btw.

[@kaiorafael429]

Awesome video. Bayes Theorem can help me talking with fanatics about any subject. Based on this premise, if you are 100% sure of something, then it is a waste of time trying changing your mind.

[@walawala147]

You have to be careful. Sometimes people will sat that they are 100% sure as a slang expression meaning that they are very sure. In this case, it may be wise to explain Bayes to them. This may increase the quality of the communication between the two of you.

[@mlaumusic]

Man this videos are so amazing... I think this is going to change me forever

[@ThePoebelchen]

Thanks for your videos! Would you elaborate the different approaches of Bayesians and Frequentists?

[@BarryAi]

Loving this video series!

[@confused6526]

Great video. You're more of a logistician/philosopher than mathematician..... well, they are one :-). Great job explaining the whole concept around Bayes' theorem. Thanks J.N

[@kumeil12345]

Can the application of Bayes Theorem to primary care data lead to accurate diagnosis and increased efficiency?

[@walawala147]

I’m just a little old EE and armchair philosopher. I came across Bayes’ nets in statistics and computer science, sort of like you. I started thinking about the metaphysical implications when I was working on artificially intelligent objects in a training system.

[@santiagovlz]

Amazing! Thanks So Much. It is unfortunate that more people don`t know about this stuff

[@walawala147]

It will help "people in the know" win at life, But everyone could do better with this knowledge.

[@RB-ss5wh]

People that have small universes and cannot be conviced dispite any evidence can thus also apply to networks that have a small universe. Very nice explaination.

[@dougduncan7641]

Nat are you a mathematician/statistician ? I took some courses in computational statistics where bayesian networks and hierarchies played a large role. But they barely mentioned the epistemological implications of Bayes theorem, it was all about mathematical technicalities. So I just wonder what the typical background is for a bayesian "follower". Cheers

[@cheettaah]

Thank you for the clear explanation.

[@MultiSydney01]

Great job! Love these videos.

[@tygriffin5528]

I'm enjoying these videos. It's amusing that we're learning about bayes by studying pea-values.

[@toonertime]

the theorem seems to me just a variation of a flow chart, or the various logic variables used in basic programming. If, then, etc.

[@kokopelli314]

I once told a fundamentalist christian friend that, "I change my beliefs, like I change my underwear". He became shocked and somewhat enraged, retorting, "You can't do that!"

[@sergiodaji9862]

You must practise Bayesian Religion, my friend :-)

[@kristiank1276]

Ken Bell Shocking! Not being attatched to your beleifs for dear life and not taking it personal when new evidence is provided! What kindof person are you anyway? some kind of....atheist?! :P

[@sergiodaji9862]

Well, if an atheist, then I hope it is the Bayesian one :0)

[@keikhalessi-rad1112]

This makes soooo much sense thank you

[@scbluesman13]

This has been a great learning tool for me thus far. I've always thought through things in this way (I consider myself a very rational person), but up until now I didn't have the language or the 'tool box' to aptly describe the process. Why aren't kids learning about Bayes' theorem in high school when they get to classes like critical thinking, economics or politics? Anyway, thanks so much for this video series. It's been excellent.

[@chiropra1]

I really enjoyed your series on Bayes theorem. This video particularly. Do you know of the existence of a worksheet in graphic form, may be an Excel worksheet?

[@lemyul]

is the prior purely opinion like my belief?

[@trugarse]

Thanks! it was very useful! I was reading a paper and I didn't know what a prior was :)

[@walawala147]

I'm glad you are finding this useful.

[@walawala147]

Cool. That whole thing about the prior gets statisticians all wigged out. But Bayes' shows us that this is the best that we can do when we can't intervene and run a controlled experiment, or when something only happened once.

[@AravindAsthme]

your videos are amazing sir..

[@usernameislost]

Great Stuff!!!

[@walawala147]

Many elements of common sense can be precisely stated and easily proved with Bayesian probability.

[@tayyabsayyad]

Great video, people unfortunately don't understand what's the power of maths

[@MegaBeautysoul]

Great explanation! thanks :-)

[@JohnMelvinII]

Nice little Rene Descartes reference...

[@lemyul]

does fortune cookie plays as a subgroup of astrology?

[@walawala147]

Thank you.

[@walawala147]

I'm glad that you are!

[@gokou0017]

May be gravity too will end up as a bad evidence, because we were looking at things the wrong way :p

[@walawala147]

That's a different question completely, since Bayes has nothing to say about scientific realism. But yea, once we understand gravity a little deeper, our current intuitions about how it works may seem silly.

[@lemyul]

thanks nao

[@MichaelEllisOfTenDeg]

Ha! He said "Jehova". Where are my stones?

[@zoobean755]

12:15 Agnostic smirk detected!!

[@eurekas7600]

Hi, nice explaination, could you please share your email. I need some help on writing article on bayes algorithm

[@xuelei5710]

Amazing! Relating math to life!

[@bg6b7bft]

You think astrology is partially based on coincidence. Your friend tells you an anecdote about one true horoscope. Why would you think that anecdote completely supports astrology? Wouldn't there also be possible worlds where that is, in fact, a coincidence?

[@animowany111]

Yes. This actually leads to a bias called confirmation bias. You update your beliefs more often when you see less probable evidence, filtering the more probable contrary evidence. We notice patterns even if there aren't any, so this friend could have seen hundreds of horoscopes in that newspaper, and they only somewhat matched maybe 10 times. The friend is more likely to remember the 10 times the horoscope matched, rather than the 90 that didn't, and can even provide you with some sort of evidence or record. This actually isn't completely wrong. A piece of evidence with high probability shouldn't change your beliefs much, the bias comes from not changing your beliefs at all with weak evidence. This can be thought about as a form of cherry picking, even if it happens subconciously.

[@CaptainRickey]

This man really attacked me with the "you're probably very sure that your mother loves you" like damn dude chill, you wanna believe in astrology, I get it, no need to jump on the offensive lmao

[@FReeARouND1992]

thanks a lot for the videos, I love them, tho i must say the way it is done is almost like brainwashing me, especially with the light coming out of the arch...

[@jere473]

Flat earthers come to mind.

[@LittlestTugboat]

You are so nice in the comments XD

[@rcollins0618]

lol @ 4:25 pile of hooey.

[@walawala147]

Can you elaborate?

[@rcollins0618]

Nat Napoletano I just thought the phrase you said around 4:25 - 4:35 in was funny. I just don't hear it too often. that's all. I appreciate these videos, thanks! :D

[@berli888]

You should eat more

[@trugarse]

Thanks! it was very useful! I was reading a paper and I didn't know what a prior was :)