Beating Sportsbooks: It's Not About Picks

[@propoint6259]

Finding the best line for that current bet is beneficial. Yes, this helps your bankroll. The Originator method is about trends, research , etc. I know this will sound obvious but winning is the key. How I mean this is that you need to collect wins consistently whether your betting $10 or $1000 a bet. This builds confidence and changes the pot of gold mindset. Collect wins first and the big money will come later. This helps change the Weekend Warrior bettor to becoming a Sharp bettor. Remember its not what you think or want to happen. Its what will happen because of trends , research and line movements. This is a very beneficial video. Thank you, Sir!

[@jordancarlin9687]

Weekends excluding college sports are the hardest to win

[@propoint6259]

Odds don't change because of the weekend. How do you mean. I want to understand how you are thinking.

[@jordancarlin9687]

@@propoint6259 odds don’t have to change . More money comes in and u get funnier whistles . Throw in nfl and weekends become challenging . It’s the same w online poker when all the fun players deposit and get gifted pocket aces

[@jordancarlin9687]

@@propoint6259 early starts . Players partying . Extra steam on games makes for funny whistles , and then of course NFL …. But as the old adage goes , “ if you have to ask “ … ( u really don’t know ) . Nobody once said odds “ change “ due to the weekend.

[@WolfBetsOfficial]

few understand

[@David_1789]

In the NFL, look at the past few weeks. If there are two teams who won’t make the playoffs, the game is tilted toward the underdog home team to keep the fans happy.

[@naturespirit33]

Here is an almost guaranteed way to win. Baseball teams play 2, 4, and mostly 3 games series. Stats starting from the 1960's show 3 game series are sweeps 24% of the time and 4 games sweep 11% of the time. Simply bet against the sweep. I experimented with this the last month of the season and the odds are usually even or the underdog. Most series end on wednesday and sunday. There will be multiple 2-0 leads to bet against and an occasional 3-0 lead. No you don't have to spend hours studying stats and tendencies etc... to get an edge. It's always been right there under our noses.

[@Six_Four_InA_64]

lol I started doing this as well a couple years ago but only when the home teams are down 0-2 or 0-3 heading into the final game

[@garybyoosey3163]

Same

[@blackduel]

​@PositiveVibesVids how'd dat nines bet workout....😅😅😅😅

[@Plus-EV-111]

How do those percentages relate to the odds that would have been on offer?

[@busterbiloxi3833]

I only bet on games that have already ended. Works every time.

[@MurrayPeeps]

Top down is a great way for beginners to start thinking sharper and slow the bleeding if they’re playing with rec books. I’ve used it exclusively while learning the skills to originate. My “I just bet for entertainment” friends can’t be bothered to line shop, let alone use a top down approach. I’m afraid they’re representative of the general public, but ultimately it’s their loss.

[@kramsemaj7869]

I only use one book. Way two much time to line shop when I am only betting $5

[@MurrayPeeps]

@@kramsemaj7869 Can’t imagine willingly paying more for anything, especially something tied so heavily to implied odds. Maybe you should try it for a few months and see if your bankroll grows

[@mauricereynolds5671]

​@@kramsemaj7869Five dollars????? Whatchu gon do with that😂😂😂

[@kramsemaj7869]

@@mauricereynolds5671 Stay afloat for the next day and not lose a ton on a bet that is ultimately 50/50. I have no illusions of being a shark/whale/sharp. I created a model and bet tracker and started with 1grand. I BE 10 2/3 LEG PARLAYS at $5 each. Right now I am churning water which is ok

[@jimmyryder8850]

I'm in Florida I have one option hard rock bet. Am I missing something?

[@gregprocter765]

Don't choose the outcome choose the odds

[@buxvet]

my personal way too play is betting against my team - tor-nhl - if my leafs lose i get pd, i vary amounts bet and skip some games on bad value, mostly moneyline bets, occasional i'll bet into the spread but not often and inc my bbets in crucial playoff games, up about 3k over 2 seasons, lowest bets are around 50, max of 250, but have done 300-500 in playoffs but just a few times

[@stil370]

You do awesome work dude!

[@professorchaos9]

This is very informative, subbed! I just learned I'm an originator bettor (MMA). I'm very interested in the top down method. I do use multiple sports book and track the line movements, but only restrict that to MMA betting. I wonder if choosing a different sport and applying the top down method could be a good strategy.

[@kevinfinnerty8414]

Money management, Straight bets, same amounts. No Teasers, No parlays, No Chasing. And stay off the casino games.

[@foxino666666]

parlays with ev bets increasing value.. but there is a variance also..

[@gregoryadler7806]

I like how the sports book you always show is Circa.

[@Unabated]

They were nice enough to let us film inside their sportsbook.

[@gregoryadler7806]

@@Unabated What does it say about me that I know it on sight :-)?

[@gregoryadler7806]

I hate having to be against my own team, but numbers are numbers.

[@Dan_Man1]

Great video Jack! Would love to hear more about the challenges of keeping accounts open. I believe that is the real downside of the approach. Not everyone wants to have their family and friends create new accounts for you. Also, when do we see an odd screen focus more on the biggest sport out there? I wonder why soccer or as most would say football is not really covered by any screen. I am sure that the potential is unthinkable (enormous number of leagues and liquidity) plus a unique selling point for any odd screen provider, given the fact that most screens only focus US sports. Again thank you for educating us. Cheers!

[@Unabated]

Good idea for a future video. Although much of the art of sports betting is not content that makes for good mass appeal videos. We teach a lot of the art of sports betting at Unabated in our Discord and livestreams.

[@dsauce223]

I enjoyed the video, but top down betting alone won't make you a winner in and of itself. Not saying that it hasn't worked for someone, somewhere. My suggestion would be to bet what you know, follow the statistics and the matchups, and of course look for the most value in terms of the line.

[@joey0047]

Well damn I’m on the road to becoming an originator. lol applied math degree and unbiased but with heavy knowledge of most players, important metrics used, and key trends including extra info like weather, splits, injuries and umps/refs. Just a matter of time before I turn my small bankroll into a medium one and we go from there. Small steps every day.

[@nickhauber7145]

Great video Jack

[@mukalazi89]

But in sports betting (football) it's becoming more technical and more details each year which passes So bring interested in individual players makes sense

[@VegasLoungeAct]

The big X factor in sports betting is player motivation. You can never know which players are feeling motivated to win and will give it their all. If you knew the motivation, sports betting would be easy.

[@bilic8094]

In fighting sports like ufc and boxing you'll get a motived athlete because they fight only a couple times of year compared to baseball that plays everyday.

[@PositiveVibesVids]

Not sure what a top down better is... but I know hedging bets is the most profitable betting strategy in sports and it's something I've used the last 2 years.. haven't had a single losing season since I realized the games weren't .. how do I say it.. "a fair game"

[@polok890]

Time traveling is the only way to win. Or using mental powers to force the game to your bet is the only way to win. Licking your computer screen doesnt work

[@rjdodgerz2776]

Not true. You just haven't put in the time and research to find the edge

[@tonysteaserpicks395]

Hone in your hindsight

[@rjdodgerz2776]

@@tonysteaserpicks395 you want to win I'll give you my secret.

[@g-mode5047]

Find the coin flip bets and take the +money. Live basketball quarter totals are the best coin flips I’ve found, and tennis is pretty good too. Don’t matter who the teams or players are.

[@animaroku]

It is something that probably the top 1% are profiting, but the technique suggested is obviously not sufficient

[@deckyBWFC91]

Best sports to back: Greyhound racing, NFL, cricket. It's all just crunching numbers vs each other. Very easy to find an edge in Greyhound racing. NFL you can sometimes get value on opening handicap lines, and cricket, well particularly international games bookies make huge mistakes, India bowled England out in 4th test and got 80 runs up end of day 4, needing only 190..... Bookies had it odds of 1/2..... It should be 1/100!!!! It was like printing money. Some people don't back odds on, and I don't usually either but in some cases, like that, you have too!!!

[@biggerthanryback9082]

Can you explain a little how to find an edge greyhound betting? I'm assuming you'd need many books covering to same races

[@deckyBWFC91]

@@biggerthanryback9082 nope, racing post is all I need, or the GRI website and download form card. Watch a few videos too, maybe 2-3 of dogs last races. Firstly some tracks run different, IE some have an advantage to early pace dogs, Romford, Crayford in England, SPK Tralee in Ireland. So find the dogs who constantly start better (split times). Though you do need the dog to stay the distance too. Other tracks suit dogs who stay distance and start slower lifford, Mullingar in Ireland Newcastle in England. This is because of the really long run home from final bend to finish line. You can get great value in these tracks, on dogs who start slow but finish fast, particularly in forecast bets... Another thing you can watch foris size or weight of dog, comes into play at first bend, if a large dog is in T1&2 and there's going to be a collision they will more than likely have an advantage. Hope that helps. Favs win a lot at hove track also if just wanna back favs

[@nikemikemd17]

Basically be a positive EV better.

[@nostudion1037]

Basically

[@jrig4515]

So a lot of advice that ultimately ends in give me money for my website that does the same thing other free sites do..... I'm giving up on utubers for sports betting and just going with my gut call me a loser all u want but at least I'm not losing twice by paying someone else to lose for me

[@DavidMcGinley-w5y]

seriously tho, there must be some kinds of free resource and something you could compile yourself to view the best odds across the market. Do you know any?

[@cipriandobrea7369]

​@user-yh9tw3qn5b notice how he claimed free sites provide the same thing but when asked which sites....crickets.

[@davidelsea1296]

You're paying for a service to give you data right in front of your face without having to go look for those edges. It does it for you man. Stay hating. it works.

[@robertnightshade2574]

It's all a gamble. Deep pockets is what keeps you winnings.

[@emmanuelvacakis4463]

Just find known losers, ask what they are betting and do the opposite

[@niels1491]

This won't work because it's not a zero sum game, it's worse because there is also the vig for the house. The house tries to fuck both sides. You might bet on the opposite and still lose.

[@emmanuelvacakis4463]

@@niels1491 the casinos are greedy. They want more than the vig. So they try to sell the losing side to make it look like a stone cold lock. Losers lose more than just the vig. They can lose an additional 30% more. So it does work.

[@armadmcgill4696]

Can you post some winning picks every day

[@mauricereynolds5671]

He won't, he's Sharp. The "Men In Black" will be watching him, tryna pick off his plays. I dt think it's a good idea

[@ThePatriots010304]

Lol why don't you just pay some tout for winning picks. Only suckers ask for and buy picks.

[@PopTartLee]

He said picking Winners isn't important 😂😂😂😂

[@amberlopez7477]

The quickest way to end up with a small fortune gambling, is to start off with a large fortune.

[@gregoryadler7806]

Do you think the online sites, like DK and MGM, etc, talk to each other about certain bettors?

[@Unabated]

No, that's valuable information to them. Not only to identify sharps but to identify bad players. They don't want to share that with competitors. Of course, employees often jump from operator to operator and take some of that knowledge with them.

[@gregoryadler7806]

@@Unabated Well I was just wondering since my dollar amount on their bonus offers has gone down 90%. Maybe two sites are telling them I’m playing one off the other. It makes it impossible to lose if you bet the right amounts…elementary school math. Also, I think with billions of bettors no one employee would care about me.

[@charliebarz7449]

@@gregoryadler7806i thought about this too .Been killing on those profit boost now barely get them or its a low percentage . Those make a difference to your bankroll

[@bruhkgb]

Beating sportsbooks = -9 teasers 🙃

[@christophergargaro959]

Followed by a 10 leg parlay 🤔

[@Foxyfreedom]

Maybe I’m just an idiot but I always bet small amounts on underdogs. +6.5-+11.5 odds. If I lose, it’s a small amount, if I win, it can double or triple your original bet. Since no one was expecting this outcome. But idk I’m new to this.

[@Unabated]

Betting less at longer odds is quite normal. Most pros bet them proportionally. If bets are +200, +100, & -200. They'll bet $50 to win $100, $100 to win $100, and $200 to win $100 respectively.

[@mikegreen5502]

​@Unabated who would you say has the most accurate sportsbook ?

[@shvga1987]

I need all this information on Spanish, really help us

[@justthetruth247]

Straight up bets won't win too much and it's basically 50/50 IF you really do your homework...but the parlays give a shot to some big wins

[@davidelsea1296]

Your logic is the equivalent of a qb with 2 minutes to go in a game down 6 pts and need to drive down the field so you throw 3 hail marys on your first drive hoping for that big win. Instead of realizing the defense is probably in deep coverage so you chip away by abusing the gaps in their defense on shorter yardage. But you went for those 3 hail marys instead and now you lost it all and never gave yourself to come out ahead.

[@United_Wings]

Great video

[@jamesrav]

good explanations, after watching a lot of Spanky interviews it became apparent that the concept of 'relationships' and sharing info plays a big role for the top-down guys. Whereas the originators are the solitary guys trying to figure things out from scratch. Which leads to a question about opening lines (which would seem to be the best chance for an originator, since some of these Risk Dept guys openly admit they set a line based on a number that pops in their head - hardly scientific) - are there lower limits for opening lines, and if so, doesn't this make an originators task that much harder? tough to make a million if you're severely limited in bet size at the open.

[@Unabated]

Correct, when lines open the limits are much lower. This is the price discovery phase for most sportsbooks. They're taking smaller bets to shape their lines. Then later, as the confidence in their number is formed, the limits increase and they take larger bets. An Originator needs to decide if it's better for them to 1) take the early number for a low limit or 2) wait for limits to increase and hope another originator doesn't move the line or 3) fake the sportsbook by betting the wrong way when limits are low and then come back and bet 10x as much when the limits increase later. Most utilize any and all of those options.

[@romanali]

Am i an originator when i bet on fixed games ?

[@hamdiozcelik6209]

If you played for +10% edge, yes you are originators.

[@busterbiloxi3833]

No, you’re Tony Soprano.

[@stil370]

Jack? Love your show(s). I'd rea6like to contact you. Can I or how do I do that? Thank you!

[@Unabated]

Jack is active on our Discord: unabated.com/discord

[@stil370]

Thanks!

[@Angel-AbC9]

The fact is today's time no method work in long run because when a game is rigged , then throw the numbers out the window. Line movement is Vegas best tool to manipulate the public , take Boston at Bucks last night , line open -5 bucks , then shot down to -2 you would think wow boat load of money came in to move that line , nooo Vegas tricked bettors to thinking that and with a full lineup for Boston. Results Boston played dead at start to finish . Back to back games for Boston had nothing to do with how they played it was embarrassing for the nba .

[@joemomma1763v]

Cool you showed the motley fool

[@orionspero560]

What about pure arbitrage sports sports betting? That is to say, you don't need an Arbor of truth.You just have equal pads on opposite sides of unequal lines.

[@Unabated]

Arbitrage is a viable way to profit at sports betting, but it's not always the most optimal way to profit. We explore it here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/rYvPnoSfZt6dqsk

[@michaelharbold7977]

I am skeptical that this guy can make money over the long run betting sports....."Those who can't.....Teach"

[@ThePatriots010304]

Yeah, that doesn't apply to sports betting. The ones that teach are the ones to learn from. You just don't understand the math and why it's important to winning long term.

[@michaelharbold7977]

I have a PHD in math you fool and I have been studying and betting sports for 30+ years.@@ThePatriots010304

[@g-mode5047]

That sayin applies to physical limitation. Successful sports betting can be done by anyone willing to discipline themselves into learning how.

[@peterteixeira2893]

He's making money by luring suckers to his website, so technically, he is making money on sport betting.

[@djordjelezajic8435]

Eliminate opinion, parlay overwhelming favorites. Yes, it is not sexy, but better to make a nickel than to lose a penny.

[@Unabated]

Parlaying heavy favorites is popular wager. However, it doesn't change the odds...only compounds the house edge. In other words, it works until it doesn't - and that probability isn't changed by parlaying.

[@_Manimal_]

I used to do it by hand, them decided to to make it automated and spend 3 years twicking, Putting in the most important data for player props. With a total of 50 sheets excel pages for nba and nfl. And I have absolutely no interest in baseball. Or spending 6 months on it to build it. I can only do sports that I like. And I'm not gonna bet into something blindly like baseball. Baseball as a sport sucks. Too many games at random hours of the week.

[@jumbroni6014]

I DONT EVEN PAY ATTENTION TO LINES. I LOOK FOR AN EDGE. A BIG EDGE. THEN RINCE AND REPEAT. I MAY ONLY FIND 1 BET PER WEEK WITH A MASSIVE EDGE BUT I WILL HIT AT ROUGHLY 75 TO 80%.

[@georgebourlos1430]

Originators vs Top-down Betors... the ancient feud

[@RodSherwood1]

It’s called arbitrage betting and it has been around since the beginning of time. People use it on sports betting and the stock market. It’s nothing new and when you get caught doing it, the books will shut down your accounts.

[@johnson5725]

To be honest shutting down accounts will never work mate. There’s millions of ways to go around that. For example, If your account is banned, you can just ask someone on your family to make an account of their information, and continue to do this, with friends and other people. Also, there’s lots of gambling sites. A true money maker doesn’t have only one account on an online casino.

[@dannyjames-h9y]

all these comments of the squares thinking they understand anything in this video is giving me a good chuckle.

[@brandonkessler7540]

Do u think sports are manipulated

[@Unabated]

No. It would be far too costly to manipulate the outcome in a major sport. The betting markets would react to something like that which would make it easier to discover. In short, legalized betting makes sports less susceptible to manipulation.

[@brandonkessler7540]

It looks like it at time. Thank u

[@RAG1NG360]

@@brandonkessler7540it’s rigged bro. Multi billion dollar company.

[@johnson5725]

@@Unabatedi agree although there are some countries who lose nothing by doing that, because corruption is in their system.

[@bilic8094]

​@@UnabatedHow are the odds makers so good to usually set the line close to the final score wheather they win by 1 or by 50 it's usually very close.

[@firestarter1888]

yea until the bookie bans you....

[@swerve_man]

This is a hard concept to grasp transitioning from a square to a profitable bettor

[@Unabated]

Absolutely - but that makes the journey even more rewarding.

[@swerve_man]

@@Unabated couldn’t agree more

[@gamblerIX2]

Bs is all about picks

[@ease3715]

Structure numbers and math betting is a true art not a fanboy hobby. Learn mathhh and numbers

[@bonusman]

The ones that think they know are afraid to bet.

[@EbenezerNimh]

I bet on one sport and one team that has a high percentage of winning.

[@FloridaMan-q2h]

I don’t have a gambling addiction wtf KZbin doing putting this bullshit on my timeline

[@Unabated]

Commenting is only going to encourage the KZbin algorithm to suggest more of it.

[@uzorjames3334]

😂😂😂😂

[@rafest6532]

Weak video

[@amberlopez7477]

🌽

[@korneliusparker536]

So this was just a long winded ad lol

[@matthewjohnson9413]

This really wasn't helpful at all. Like, at all. All I heard was spend a lot of time looking for best price.

[@fraac]

are you not CONTENT

[@PopTartLee]

We Scamming😂😂😂😂😂. He beat machines...lol.hahaha.

[@Unabated]

Yes, there are various ways to beat machines. Video poker machines which return more than 100% with perfect play, slots with banked bonuses, promotions which create advantageous situations, comps, etc.

[@elduder2530]

Scam advertising

[@THEECYBERMACKIN]

😢😢 This video CAP

[@amberlopez7477]

🪙