Behind Miyamoto's "30 million" comment...

It's not every day Mario's dad talks Nintendo Forecasting! I couldn't let this one slip by without a significant discussion!
00:00 Miyamoto sales
05:46 3-5 Years
21:00 Other thoughts
Sources:
www-1101-com.translate.goog/n... - Original article (section 11 contains most of the relevant parts)
www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/202... - 23/24 sales

[@davidtitanium22]

so instead of putting every egg in a giant luxurious basket, they want a variety of baskets expecting some of them to get big and some to fail, really quite the opposite of a lot of AAA game developers

[@daileeedunno]

if nintendo wants 30 million sellers every 3 to 5 years, it clearly means they dont expect every game they release to be selling 30m considering it feels like they make a game every 3 to 5 months

[@VivioSaf]

The meaning of the 30mil every 3~5 years, was that, if they can achieve that, they don't need to be concerned financially. And that in itself, means that they can keep taking moderate risks.

[@rossruss6901]

I feel like Miyamoto just said 2 mil as the number for "this did good" so their smaller IPs like Star Fox who haven't broken 1 mil in sales for a while have more of a chance to be seen as a successor rather than a failure. Still, I see what Miyamoto is getting at, it's good to keep an open mind when it comes to what can be the next big thing (30 mil seller) while also keeping within reason not everything will be that way and not be discourse from making new ideas or new games in old series.

[@themc3140]

That's really good to know! That means series that have steadily done between 3-5 mil (Pikmin, Metroid, Mario RPGs on the switch) are a lot safer among Nintendo's priorities than we thought.

[@OmegaVideoGameGod]

The man himself will always be a hero, he proved anything was possible, you just have to get there.

[@malo932]

I will forever be grateful to the man that gave me Pikmin

[@henveee]

he's a legend but he did his best to restrict the mario rpg games tho

[@RiqMoran]

30 mill is a lot. Even for juggernaut like Pokemon

[@VivioSaf]

The comment has be massively misconstrued ... The 30mil comment was on the context of "If Nintendo have some of these, we're are comfortable enough to seek new ideas". Meaning, If they can have a Mario Kart or Zelda that goes above that mark, they can let their developers risk with more with new ideas, or even revisit their less successful IPs. Also, Miyamoto's position in that part of the interview was that "one should always aim high, and not be satisfied with the bare minimum." It's not like he said that everything bellow 30mil is a failure, but that, if you only concerned in breaking even, you'll hardly go anywhere beyond that, and, more likely to hit bellow that mark. If we're to take the 30mil as a mark of performance, it would be more befitting to say that, at that mark, Its okay to be satisfied with yourself (as in, "there's probably nothing you could've done better").

[@lucanos34]

I really appreciate all of the work that you put into these posts. It must be so much work!

[@jk_mizu]

I was thinking the same thing. Very great full for the contrnt

[@FletcherReedsRandomness]

I firmly believe Pokémon Scarlet and Violet would’ve sold thirty million by now if they launched in a finished state. Considering the game has already sold nearly twenty-five million after a year and a half even with the bugs and performance problems, if these games launched in a much better state, I believe word of mouth would’ve been so strong that they would be the best-selling Pokémon games of all time by now, while the unfinished state of the actual release probably drove millions of potential customers away.

[@drazzimusic]

I’m inclined to agree as a lifelong pokemon fan with at least 2000 hours put into the series, I’ve still yet to touch scarlet/violet even after seeing the game at reasonable discounts

[@Articfoxgamez]

I just hate how much of it was an exxageration. Was it buggy? Yes. But were the huge bugs where your character stretch out into nightmare creatures anywhere NEAR as common as people made them out to be? No.

[@Scarftail]

It honestly feels more like people just don't care about the bugs and framerate, or they do, but it doesn't stop them from buying and playing the game. Same-console sequels very rarely sell better than their predecessors regardless of how much better they are. The few exceptions I can think of include Kirby and the Forgotten Land or the GTA and CoD series.

[@Scarftail]

@@drazzimusic Maybe I'm just used to it now, but the framerate is tolerable to me in handheld mode. Although menu loading can sometimes still suck terribly. :)

[@VivioSaf]

Pokemon Company seems to work on a different mindset. They have much more than the games to keep themselves a float, so, 20mil almost every other year is more than good enough to keep the game devs well off.

[@Cloud-dt6xb]

To put it simply 30 million is what they aim for in terms of ambition but it's not an expectation for every title to hit. And there's certainly nothing wrong with having a big drive like that to encourage developers especially new ones to do the best job they can on a game.

[@jacobfoxfires9647]

I mean this has been something that many game studios or even Hollywood movies seem to forget. They want everything to be this massive hit and go all in on projects that might even fail horribly. Nintendo is showing off what a tent pole product is suppose to be. Their aim of 30 million will help all of their smaller titles which can have some leeway and allow for experimentation with medium or smaller titles. And could allow a sleeper hit to arise. It’s all pretty reasonable despite how it would initially sound like. And if they can stay on this schedule then yeah, they should be feeling very successful.

[@Stephen-Fox]

Pokemon - From an even more mercinary point of view... Pokemon as a franchise makes most of its money from trading cards and stuffed animals. The games seem to be content mines for those at this point.

[@user-be3qc7re9o]

There's also the fact that Nintendo doesn't own the IP, so that's not exactly something they would consider.

[@pattersong6637]

You're one of the relatively few people who seems to actually listen to what people say. Miyamoto said they needed one "big hit" every three to five years. That's about two a generation. The idea is that those big hits basically subsidize the rest of the platform. Nintendo's had four games pass 30 million in the Switch generation and Mario Odyssey is like 90% of the way there, so they're way past that threshold. I think the idea is that games that make 3-5 million sales like the Mario RPGs, Metroid etc are fine and have their places secured by Mario Kart and Animal Crossing selling 10x of them. Nintendo's releasing stuff like Famicom Detective Club, Endless Ocean, and Another Code Recollection which, being polite, essentially no one is buying. I'm not bashing any of these titles, mind, I've heard they're all fantastic. I've know some people with taste I respect love Another Code Recollection and I expect to buy it at some point when I need a game to play but sadly essentially no one is supporting that software. Nintendo can afford to put out niche titles like that because their megahits subsidize the rest of the company and the company feels value in having a full release schedule with a varied set of offerings to attract people to the platform. Avoiding the first party software droughts that plagued the Wii U and making the system feel live and lived in might make it worth it to Nintendo to bite the bullet on a few titles that essentially no one will buy.

[@RETR0_P0CKET]

Great content. Really happy to have found your channel. You make really interesting and informative videos.

[@ravenebony2267]

Congratulations on reaching and blowing right past 10k subscribers! 🎉

[@splooshkaboom1983]

Yo nice job on 10k

[@Goolix_Aero]

Just sitting down to eat and I see a new Nintendo Forecast 🥰

[@VisaCardholder]

Yeah! Let's get stuck in!

[@beezar113]

8:05 “Plateauing sales wise” (Shows the Great Plateau) Brilliant.

[@vivalahomestar]

Obviously Miyamoto knows what he’s talking about more than I ever will, but I can’t help but wonder if this strategy is sustainable for Nintendo. The innovative selling point for most of Switch’s smash hits is, in part, being huge. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Super Mario Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, Tears of the Kingdom, and Smash Ultimate (and to a lesser extent Animal Crossing New Horizons) distinguish themselves by being the biggest entries in their respective series. Even some of their smaller and/or second party series are going for that angle with titles like Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Super Mario Party Jamboree, and Pokémon Scarlet/Violet. If fans are to be believed, sequels to these games (*especially* Mario Kart and Smash Bros) will need an extravagant amount of money and effort in order to not be seen as disappointing steps down from their Switch 1 counterparts. I think past games somewhat back up this idea. Super Mario 3D World was met with lukewarm fan reception for years because it wasn’t seen as being as big/grand as the Galaxy games, and it took years for its stellar level design and word of mouth to rehabilitate its image. Other attempts by Nintendo to create new entries that are innovative and different, but not noticeably bigger than older games were reviled by fans - see Mario Party 9, Star Fox Zero, and Metroid Other M. Even just going bigger isn’t necessarily enough. Tears of the Kingdom was roughly 3x the size of Breath of the Wild, but the clever asset reuse that made the game possible turned many fans away and helped cause that sales plateau. From these examples, it seems that Nintendo’s biggest hits require the costly combination of being both bigger than the previous games and notably different. And with the Switch’s lineup setting the bar so high for scope, I fear that the Switch 2’s biggest hits will either be catastrophically expensive or fall short of the lofty height of 30m. The one big exception I have to acknowledge is Super Mario Bros Wonder. Accounting for the smaller side levels, Wonder is about the size that 2d Mario has been since Mario 3. Yet on innovation alone, Wonder has been a smash hit for the series - keeping in mind that 2d Mario hasn’t been a 30m seller in decades.

[@hi-ougidemonfang]

Murasame’s castle was never released outside Japan until the 3DS era. So Zelda had a huge leg up just by being localized.

[@JustJulyo]

If you aim high you'll never fail!

[@Parkerdeal]

Loved the Solomon callout!

[@Frank-fh2qn]

One of those wii games came with a wiimote, and that's the only reason it sold so well.

[@themc3140]

SMO's 'Puny' 26 million is actually still really good considering it's the best-selling 3D Mario (Or at least was, I haven't checked the top ten for a while), the 30 Million+ mark is seemingly reserved for the most casual-friendly titles and the most groundbreaking titles, series like Mario are a lot more consistent.

[@madnessarcade7447]

U should do a video on why not all Nintendo IPs are marketed equally why some releases get a lot of attention and why some are almost ignored

[@star-rock6466]

Some are just bigger than others, that's quite simple

[@madnessarcade7447]

@@star-rock6466that’s the boring answer

[@pattersong6637]

For a series like Fire Emblem they don't really expect mainstream popularity because tactical games are inherently niche so the advertisements are pretty much "Hey, Fire Emblem fans, the new one's out!" and that has created a franchise with consistent decent performances that'll never have a big mass market success but hasn't disappointed in the Switch era.

[@JoseAlberto-dh8pf]

@@pattersong6637 Tbf, they also have FE Heroes

[@nintendoforecast]

It's a very interesting question especially given how differently TotK and Pikmin 4 were promoted but the tricky bit would be how to reliably reverse-engineer exactly how they're marketed since different markets would have different approaches and there are so many different approaches to advertising. If I can think of a way to address this interestingly, I definitely will, although I suspect this might be better as a question to Kit & Krysta.

[@smaza2]

itoi mentioned!!

[@ADreamingTraveler]

People don't realize that the Zelda games were not huge sellers until Breath of the Wild came out. Before that sure the games sold decently but nowhere near the numbers they do now. Zelda games sold maybe 3-7 million per main entry. Even Twilight Princess and Skyward Sword with the Wii's insane install base didn't sell anywhere near Botw

[@woodchi]

I found it strange that you consider focused dandori battles to be something for casual players. I think the opposite is true, that they were put to one side for players who don’t want to get into that too much. The main areas exploration-style play is after all what all players will experience and in my mind that part of the game that is geared for as broad an audience as possible, with more challenging gameplay like dandori battles put to one side for gamergamers. 👉This may seem like a fine point to raise, but it touches on the theme of how to make a game more appealing for more players and get that bigger fan base (and higher sales). My logic extends to why Mario & Luigi Brothership is a genius release at this time because it has broader appeal to the degree that it doesn’t look like an rpg to the casual eye, and i suspect is lighter in rpg elements, making it more palatable for the casual player. The proof will be in the pudding on that one of course.

[@Shinjiduo]

The reason why Nintendo is the only company who can make the goal of a 30 million seller every 5 to 6 years is because of how high the standard is set. When you look at the list of best selling video games of all time what you will notice is that besides Nintendo every body else who has hit the 30,000,000 number is a one off like COD Modern Warfare 2019 or a Multi platform, Multi generational release. Only Nintendo has been able to hit 30,000,000 with any consistency without heavy pack ins and on a single platform. The intent to make every type of game accessible enough for the masses while still holding a specific identity to each franchise is what makes Nintendo unique within the industry.

[@jellyface401]

I want Dr.Mario 99

[@seth3129]

do you live in the UK? i appreciate the quality late night uploads when i've got nothing else do to :P

[@prognosticii]

He got his accent from watching too much British TV.

[@nintendoforecast]

Yes I do! And glad you're enjoying!

[@MindOfChrist7]

Nice biblical reference!

[@wockomtosh]

Something that I don't hear talked about very much as far as Nintendo's profits go, how much money do they make on third party sales on the Switch? Though I'm not positive, I assume they take 30% of each sale like most platforms do, yet no one ever talks about that as a source of revenue for them. Obviously they need to focus on making good games to draw people to the Switch, but I would be curious to see the numbers there.

[@daniel8181]

Just a note, totk certainly sold more, those were unit ships, and they pushed hard for the digital two-pack to reduce cost. Anecdotally, I know one person with a physical copy.

[@leandrormor]

I'd love your perspective over the DKC franchise, what's the future of it (will they keep the difficult making it hard for newcomer and pleasing old fans ..?), what's the potential segmentation (2d, 3d, new rpg... ), how about the sales, tropical freeze on wii u vs switch was it a flop? why it didn't sell more?

[@nintendoforecast]

Great suggestion. Won't be in the next few weeks but I will look at DK and will definitely factor in your interesting questions. Thanks!

[@leandrormor]

@@nintendoforecast thanks

[@leandrormor]

@@nintendoforecast I think about a potential trilogy 2d-hd release, a dk64 remake... But lately I'm leaning towards everything new like a new 3d a new 2d, or even a unified New dk-like game reusing the kremlings

[@painuchiha2694]

Miyamoto wants to conquer the world lol

[@Dionaea_floridensis]

I'll give that article a look and see if my Japanese is up to snuff to read it xD

[@madnessarcade7447]

Miyamoto said big hit he never said it’s a flop if it doesn’t To them 20m is probably a moderate success

[@pattersong6637]

Yeah, the only numbers Miyamoto mentions in this off the cuff talk is that 1 million is probably disappointing and 30 million is a big hit. There's a WIDE gulf between those. For a baseball metaphor, if 30 million sales on a tentpole title is a grand slam, a smaller title like a Fire Emblem game or Metroid Dread selling 3 million-ish is a base hit and a Mario Party selling over 10 million is a home run.

[@shadowx86]

When i first read this do not see any controversial thing on it. Look like i was wrong xd What i get from this is for miyamoto , if nintendo get a big hit (30M) every 3 or 5 years it can susteing that 3 or 5 year of development cicle for all nintendo proyects. That is why proyects like mp 4 can be safe since this big hits pay the cost , that not mean nintendo is seeking lost , but they are free of risk to seek posibilitys. On that regard you can hit the same result with 2 or 3 games that togethers hit 30M The 2M mark is a good point for mark the first step of a game to become mainstream. And later we got economic sucess that vary a lot from game to game , budged to budged.

[@pattersong6637]

Exactly, he's saying that Mario Kart and Animal Crossing subsidize the rest of their catalogue, which all has the potential of becoming the next Mario Kart or Animal Crossing.

[@cyberrb25]

I think the 30 million figure had another reason. Many people buy games. I've bought more games on my Switch than for any other console. If there IS a niche and a fan base, getting 700K sales for a game can be easy, and getting to the million is pretty possible if the series has a broad gamer appeal. What it is hard to do is to get a 30 million seller. That doesn't just need the whole gaming sphere to tap into it, but non gamers and your regular moms and pops to get into the game. As Animal Crossing became a phenomenon during the pandemic, to broke those records. As Mario Kart is THE racing game for families, it broke those records. As Zelda became the whole sensation, it (barely) broke those records. It's not just selling 30 million copies of any game, but having a singular game that makes "regular" people look at a Nintendo game what makes those games become "wild successes". In other terms, those are the system sellers.

[@enigmafarce5413]

Did you mean hindsight is 20/20 or are you trying to say something?

[@hps362]

Keep in mind, Odyssey hitting 27 million just means their tenth biggest game in two decades almost crossed the 30 million mark. It's a spectrum, sure, but I think drawing that line at 30 million is still helpful when zooming out and looking at all the success Nintendo has had.

[@RussGreeno]

No sign of Tears DLC yet. Probably some revenue to be had there.

[@user-be3qc7re9o]

Or it's because they want to move on.

[@PamonhasDePiracicaba]

Fire Emblem Heroes is one of Nintendo’s most profitable games to date, reaching over a billion in revenue, despite not “selling 30M”.

[@VivioSaf]

Fire Emblem Heroes isn't even applicable in this context. That's a "free game" that gathers no revenue in "sales".It's revenue is made on in-app sales and, if you consider the revenue to calculate the equivalent in number of games, they're probably above that threshold. Also, some people on Nintendo already got on record saying they don't really like the mode. So, I'd say that, its fair to consider that they wouldn't consider it in their ideal scenarios.

[@NumberOneHorseDrowner]

This interview was "found" and reported on by gaming news sites almost immediately after it was released in January 2024. The original reports didn't consider the 30 million thing worth reporting on.

[@minecrafter3448]

I just don’t think this is a realistic goal. One revolution per generation is a much better goal to strive for.

[@madnessarcade7447]

How much does miyamoto think is a normal success

[@ravenebony2267]

There's a good question

[@madnessarcade7447]

@@ravenebony2267I watched more of the video he said around 2 mil

[@davidio1777]

Miyamoto-san said that, we try to achieve a sales goal of 2 Million Copies per Game. Even if Games don't sell 2 Million they will be upheld by our other more successful games that sold more. (It was a Well researched Video about what Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom cost in Making, but only rough estimates) It just means, that they want their games to be sold about 2M times so that they recuperate the cost of making them. Titles like Ring fit Adventure are very risky to bring on the market, like Splatoon 1 was. But because their other titles stemmed the Revenue they still decided to give it a try. Something along those lines. Miyamoto-san considers every game Successful since every game is a new opportunity to bring a new experience for the player. If I correctly interpret whatever was said in that Video. Was a quite long Video tho. kzbin.info/www/bejne/nai3gIOnaLiHgdE

[@madnessarcade7447]

@@davidio1777fair

[@madnessarcade7447]

I always thought big hit was 10 mil plus Miyamoto definitely has very high standards

[@Iffondrel]

I mean, when totk can hit 10 mil sales in its opening weekend, you gotta reason that the bar really is that high. The consumer base is at its highest, and these bars are well within reach now.

[@XHeartCriztalx]

Kinda makes me mad that the era of landing a job the way Miyamoto did is over. He was a puppeteer with no video game experience who applied for a job in a newspaper. Now he's one of the richest men in the world. Of course he had good ideas, but so does the average person off the street, too. He got so, so lucky. Now you need 2 degrees and 10+ years worth of experience in any entry level position, in a world that's more unaffordable than ever, just to be considered. What a world we live in.

[@corey2232]

I love Miyamoto, but I'm honestly looking forward to more new blood taking over top positions within Nintendo. He's an industry legend, a gaming icon and creator of some of the most beloved IPs in media, so I've got the utmost respect & appreciation for him. But every now & then, you hear stories about him & other older heads at Nintendo that show how stubborn, traditional, or set in their ways they are.

[@ausgod538]

Miyamoto hasn't been directly involved since 2016. Anyone saying that don't really know who works on Nintendo games

[@INRamos13]

My man, stop cutting off the end of your sentences, it's so weird.