MAKE BIG PROFITS FROM HORSE RACING : 20 TIPS FROM A PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER

[@magicmike802]

Congrats to 2k subs!!!

[@BettingAnalyst]

Thanks - Growing faster than i predicted.

[@annappamoonsamy2285]

Thanks good information SA BOOKMAKERS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT ABOUT THE ODDS WHEN REALEASING THE BETTING SHEET EG. WHEN BETTING FOR HORSES THAT WILL BE RUN SATURDAY WILL BE OUT ON FRIDAY BUT ON SATURDAY THERE ARE NO CHANGES BETTING REMAINS THE SAME

[@BettingAnalyst]

I know of plenty of betting professionals making money from SA racing! However, it's all at fixed odds and not the PMU (Tote). While i bet France and the US too, i must admit not to following SA. My advise, if you don't see an advantage with the odds, don't bet on that race. As we say in this game, bet the odds and not the horse!

[@mmv9155]

very good! informative and explained in a simple way - i love your work

[@zeandean79]

Very enjoyable video. Points well made. Thank you 🙏

[@thomastrain7311]

Been watching the horses for about 2 yrs now and I love watching those beautiful animals/ athletes. I still don't have a handle on betting them though. Example: yesterday was watching and the commentator said he lost money betting the favorite (that won) on a $21 dollar ticket. The favorite was 4/5 and i missed part of what he was saying . My main problem is I don't know anyone personally that bets horses.

[@BettingAnalyst]

My tip - Don't listen to TV pundits! Aim to increase your knowledge, and formulate your own opinion.

[@cryptolord9826]

New subscriber from australia I can bet on horses all around the world I was always looking for connection in England hope to hear back with a few winners for me 😜 Cheltenham r5-9 queens brook 👍🍺

[@Catsaresilly-v5c]

I try to follow racing here in American and I feel like I'm mentally all over the place. I'm trying to narrow down on types of racing and sticking to just a few tracks. I absolutely love racing but it's hard to focus sometimes. Also, new sub from me!

[@BettingAnalyst]

You are betting into the pool? Or is there some type of fixed odds available? If it's the first, you could look for the tracks with the lowest (%) take out. Again, if it's pool betting, wait until near the start (all cards on the table). You will at least have a good idea of the actual odds. How the individual went to post. Any changes in conditions (rain/wind etc). Whether they changed surface (grass to dirt). A few other tricks for US racing is considered. The type that won earlier races (maybe track is suiting front runners on a certain day, or the opposite). The draw is an obvious factor, and you need to judge the pace of the race (non-runners/Scratched runners can be an issue. With regards to what you mentioned about the narrowing process. Many of your races are claimers, and the handicapper's ratings often mean nothing. With US racing I look for runners that have been beaten (often) at short odds (some work well but don’t produce on the track). If I was asked to bet into a pool without any rake back, I would look for bigger fields. You see, if the system is taking 15% out of the win pool, it’s 5% per runner if there was just three. However, if there were 10 runners, the juice is 1.5% per runner (hope that makes sense). Watch replays, learn what to expect, a strong pool is better than a weak pool, stay away from the place/show betting (% per runner increases). Look for bonus rollovers (jackpot bets or whatever they are called) - if someone didn’t win the last one, that money stays in the pot etc and the total stakes are less than the payout. Big field races (many runners) are often run at a stronger pace, etc etc - Good luck!

[@Pegasus4213]

You give some very good advice Tony, it's a lot to consider when looking at a race! You say near the end "Bet the odds, not the horse!'. But you hardly mention the betting market - except about betting early being a possible risk. I bet Luxembourg big for the Derby so I know about that risk. But I'd be interested in how you assess betting markets and if there are ways to spot value etc My personal approach is to bet outsiders in certain races.

[@BettingAnalyst]

Thanks for your comments! Yes - those are the factors (video) which lead to setting odds! Every bet I'm making is on the odds obtained being better than what I consider the be the true odds (bet the odds, not the horse/stable/jockey) I think you need a flexible approach to find betting value (look at the whole race). At the end of the day, an ''even'' money shot could be of great value if you have 4/6 on the tissue! However, my most obvious approach is finding what I consider to be beatable favourites (layable), and taking them on with an alternative. Better still is when the first 2 or 3 in the betting market are worth taking on. The biggest issue we have nowadays is the glut of racing. In truth, you don't have time to analyse every race, thus you need to narrow it down quickly. That's one of the reasons i'm looking for that weak favourite, but even then it doesn't mean i would find a better alternative (no bet). I'm actually much happier with race programs like today (sunday). Three cards with 9 races easy to put a line through (unraced maidens, bumpers, sellers, low-grade classified races etc) The final thing i want to say is the proof is in the pudding. If you are winning betting outsiders, your job is done! If not, changing the approach is vital. The profit/loss is the only thing which counts! Good luck

[@Pegasus4213]

Well, I understand that you focus on getting an edge or the best fractional odds and odds that you assess as value. I'm more interested in how one reads the betting forecast set by the bookmaker. You can find value (Over the odds) that way - rather than just finding incrementally better odds?

[@BettingAnalyst]

@@Pegasus4213 I’m not sure what you mean! The Racing Post and other journals forecast the odds, whereas bookmakers lay the odds (not forecast). For the record, most racing odds are bought-in from service providers. Once they go live, bookmakers react according to supply & demand and by watching the market evolve (odds checker). At some stage, the betting exchanges gain traction (liquidity) & from then become the new benchmark! When you are placing a bet in the morning, it’s a futures trade. Markets evolve for a reason, and the job of a professional punter is to understand why odds change. Maybe, it’s a non-runner (which affects how the race will be run). The ground is a massive factor (expected vs actual). Earlier races signalling a draw bias. Parade ring (appearance), gallop to the post (everything in order). Stable confidence is starting to become apparent, and so on! At the end of the day, it’s the perceived value we are looking for! Maybe I bet a 5/1 shot in the morning because I believe it to be of value at the time. However, by the start of the race changing factors drove it to 7/1, and I'm left with a poor value bet - It can happen, it's just that I must get it right more than wrong otherwise I wouldn't be able to profit from betting. In short, Betting/bookmaking is all about opinion, and no two pros would have the same odds. It is not an exact science, and it is that which leads to opportunity. Finally, the biggest advantage we have over the bookmaker is we don't need to lay odds in every race - We can pick & choose!

[@Pegasus4213]

@@BettingAnalyst Thanks for a comprehensive reply! One point I just had emphasised though, is that if you bet before the day of the race, and take a price, that price is what you get paid. But.. if you bet on the day, and the price moves out after you take an earlier price, then you get 'Best Odds Guarantee'. I think most bookmakers do that. I hadn't really been aware until a recent early bet and reading their rules. You cover most aspects of the market. Bookmakers these days hardly need their own experts on assessing the odds as the exchanges supply that pretty well as you say! In the old days, we had the luxury of longer time between races and could watch board-chalked prices coming down. With so few minutes between race times now, that advantage is not so blatantly obvious. Keep up the good work!

[@tarporley2947]

What I would say to any aspiring punter is concentrate on the days least competive races .......bookie like wide open handicaps for one reason the odds are massively in their favour ....concentrate maiden novice races where betting suggests only 2 (max 3) have a chance.....and back them each way.......the bookies will hate you for it!!!!

[@BettingAnalyst]

Yes that is a good way to start, albeit with a warning. If you are trying to pinch the place odds, do it in a shop with cash and no tie to your person. The reason is obvious, accounts will get flagged for place thieving! Example: If the odds look like this 4/6, 9/4, 5/1, 25/1, 50/1+ the other 10 runners, taking the place odds on a 5/1 shot is even money. On Betfair, it would be around 1.45 (4/9) - and bookies are aware of this!

[@tarporley2947]

@@BettingAnalyst yes I know only to well ........I am currently on the train from Chester to Liverpool.......where I can do 8 shops in 20 minutes!!!! Well worth the £5.50 fare!!!

[@BettingAnalyst]

@@tarporley2947 - Absolutely, that is the way to do it! Good luck in getting on.

[@David.L291]

@@BettingAnalyst imagine trying to remember what winning ticket was from what shop 😅AND you've won a ton load from the winning bet haha

[@Mindboggle100]

I think listening to this chap, just reinforces my long held belief... its all just too clever for me! I wish it wasn't....

[@BettingAnalyst]

I would say Horse racing takes more knowledge, but you could concentrate on Sports betting (advantage taking) without needing to understand the selection process! Something like this video BIG PROFIT BETTING STRATEGY MADE SIMPLE (USING REBELBETTING) kzbin.info/www/bejne/mYu5nYZsp7msY6c. shows it's a numbers game. Loads of software out there to make it easy if you can get betting accounts! Its just a suggestion if you want to put the odds in your favour

[@Mindboggle100]

@@BettingAnalyst I will take a look... Thank you for the link :)

[@mmv9155]

i would like to buy you a coffee every time i watch your video! put that patron thing or whatever it is called

[@BettingAnalyst]

Thanks for your kind words, that's payment enough!

[@johntitor.]

Win or loss, remember, the horse wasn't running for you.

[@ThatsTheSpiritGodCast]

What’s you tip fro GN On Saturday and do u fancy Hill 16?

[@Deepakverma-yb5ro]

A lot of odds on favourites are getting beat. Why are they getting beat .

[@turbosnail159]

have you ever seen a closing down sale in a bookmakers window?

[@Mindboggle100]

No, seen a few with smashed in windows... I wonder what that might mean!?

[@turbosnail159]

@@Mindboggle100 doesnt mean a thing mate

[@igorslocks]

First off, everything Igor says about the ponies refers explicitly to racing in the US, Not overseas. Now not going to try to either refute or endorse most of what the speaker in video is saying, Igor is just going to speak on what is facts from 40+years of experience & observation. Unless you know a trainer, just play horses for amusement. Do not think,even if you are experienced in betting on other sports, that you will break the bank. You'll break your own bank account is all. The triple crown races & Breeders Cup are different because there is more interest & more coverage/awareness which as a whole should lead to better information & by extension a more proper opinion. But weekday races at the local track? UNLESS YOU KNOW A TRAINER, DO NOT TRY TO OUTSMART THE HOUSE. The trainers are the key. They know the true condition & position of the horse everyday & of course on race day. The great majority of the time trainers will sandbag/scheme in order that when the horse does win, it's well worth it. So as a horse doesn't hit the board for a few races, the subsequent race his odds will increase. Now Igor's father was a book back in the 90s & had quite a few trainers that bet on sports thru him. This relationship led to lucrative tips on more than 1occasion. They'd tell us that the horse was looking good & he had him ready to run. And with this info came the famous quote-"If he is anything less than 10-1 do not bet it because I'm not going to let him win." It's been said that the quickest way to become a millionaire is to be the book in the Jockey's locker room. Very true. Again for a cple reasons. For starters, the great majority of jocks are speed freaks of some sort (coke/meth) in order to make weight. That can & often does lead to problems/situations that are pretty easy to predict. Also any person who competes in any sort of athletic competition always thinks they're going to win. Otherwise why bother competing right? This is a part of human nature that should be fairly obvious. Now the trainer wants to keep the jock on an even keel, which is a challenge, because the No 1 goal is to get a safe trip. If the horse is down you're down. In these types of races you can always get another jock. Way easier to get a new rider than a new ride. And if the horse is worn down/injured/compromised that effects every and anything you do moving forward. So the trainer will always tell the jock that the horse is looking good, eating well, eager to run in the AM. That's how he tries to get a steady effort from the jock& therefore a safe trip. If the jock thinks his horse is at a disadvantage from the start he may take chances in order to compensate and that can boil down to recklessness pretty quickly. Yes you can say the jockey has a personal connection to the horse. Agreed. But the trainer has an intimate connection with the horse. Big difference. The jock isn't on the horse during the horse's training runs as he has other races to prepare for on other horses. So while his knowledge of his mount that day is good, it's never complete. Furthermore the trainers knowledge is absolute. Then you can add in the basic unpredictability of the horses. Jimmy the Greek said that it's too hard betting the races as even the best prepared of horses is far from a sure thing(ESPN 30/30) so it's not worth the effort to handicap them conventionally. And understand back then horse racing was way way bigger than now & these guys practically grew up at the rail. As Igor likes to say- The only thing guaranteed is anything can happen. Now Igor isn't trying to discredit anything that the author of the video is saying. On the contrary, many of the tips he offers as far as how to analyze the info and process it can serve a bettor well in the Triple crown races/Breeders cup. Those races are above board. The local everyday races at any of the many tracks across the US-theyre not. Moreover, you can never truly be sure which in and of itself is enough reason to tread lightly. There's plenty more to this, but I just wanted to alert all the cappers& would be cappers out there. In no way am I trying to condescend either the viewers or the author of the video. The oddsmakers & by association the house is the real enemy. When we cooperate many have the right perspective instead of the few. And proper perspective on the balance will lead to more wins at and away from the track. This info/belief system not only corresponds to Harness racing, if anything it's pure gospel there because no1 relatively speaking pays attention to Harness so they can not only do what they want, they can flaunt it as well. The best areas/states for Thoroughbreds are Kentucky, California, Florida, Louisiana. Warmer climates in common. Harness? Chicago & New York/ New Jersey. These are the only 2cities left where the mob is still the mob & not a totally hollow shell of what they once were. So it's not an accident that the Harness world revolves around those 2 spots. Anyway, if you read all this, I'm sorry to write a novel. Handicapping is a complex process and hopefully this information was presented as clearly as could be on a Q&A board for KZbin. Feel free to comment or ask questions and GL to everyone betting the NCAA title game tonight! Act Accordingly 🐕‍🦺🐎

[@bigtimebettor2516]

Is it possible to value bet virtual races, i have been watching races on william hill and odds above 5 win a lot of the time, do you think it makes sense to bet this. The other thing is that i have been watching your videos and you say you compare the odds to pinnacle, but i cant find any odds for these on pinnacle. i was wondering if maybe you had some tips for these races. Also thank you so much for the content

[@BettingAnalyst]

Virtuals are like the lottery, casinos, slots, etc, in that they are a game of chance. With massive margins, you need to stay well away from such unless you have contact with the person loading the video :-) We are only interested in ''games of skill'' This video is more intended for people with Racing knowledge, to act as a bit of a guide. You are right by saying Pinnacle don't offer racing, and that was a different video aimed at using that bookmaker's superior mathematical Sports knowledge to find advantages. There are tools for doing the same, and I believe Tradematesport offers a free week trial. Betburger, and Rebelbetting are others, and if you Google there are a bunch more.

[@chibbledorf]

Great video some really serious food for thought. Perhaps, if you get time, could you comment on your views about speed ratings please?

[@BettingAnalyst]

To be honest Dave, I'm not big on speed figures! I know some betting professionals love them, but in my opinion, they are only useful in big fields and certain types of races. If I was betting in the US/HK I would be looking at the clock, but less so in the UK, France, and Germany - Races are more tactical, unless of course you get a big field or prefer dirt.

[@chibbledorf]

@@BettingAnalyst Thank you!

[@Deepakverma-yb5ro]

Hello I lost a lot of money on them odds on favourites, they never seem to get there in two horse races. Or even one to tens on. What has happened to the racing industry, why are they letting odds on favourites get swamped.

[@BettingAnalyst]

Maybe you should be looking beyond favorites! The value is in finding wrongly priced favorites and taking them on!