If I’m Right On The 10-Year Yield, Watch How Bearish Everyone’s Going To Be | Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 165 to discuss the current macro picture and the potential impact of inflation on the economy.
In this episode, he highlights the bifurcated nature of the economy, with inflation posing a challenge for lower-income individuals. Bianco also shares his insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the outlook for long-term interest rates. He thinks rates for the 10-year are likely headed higher to 5-5.5% and breaks down what that could mean for asset allocation, including crypto.
Elsewhere, he weights in on his concerns surrounding the narrative of the Bitcoin ETF, while emphasizing the need for a comprehensive alternative financial system.
Links:
BiancoResearch.com
BiancoAdvisors.com
biancoresearch
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco and intro
0:59 Macro picture
1:49 Stickier inflation
4:27 Bifurcated economy
6:06 Interest rate policy outlook
7:50 Fed is not partisan but it is political
9:29 Rates on the 10-year likely headed to 5-5.5%
12:00 The Fed doesn’t change policy in the summer up to election day
13:19 Implications for 10-year at 5-5.5%
19:59 Demographics
24:01 Bitcoin ETF
31:38 How Bitcoin gets to $1 million
34:10 Parting thoughts

[@DorathyJoy]

In these uncertain times, it's more important than ever to have a solid understanding of how to manage your finances, invest wisely and navigate economic downturns. But my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $240k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I'm all in on the long term game, but with my savings are lying waste to inflation and my portfolio losing gains everyday, I need a remedy.

[@Michaelparker12]

If you need advice, consider speaking with a financial advisor. Don't get me wrong, you can do it on your own, but financial advisors have a lot more knowledge and expertise in this area.

[@Jersderakerguoe]

you are completely right, Advisors have information and paths that are not disclosed to the public.. I profited £560k in 2022 under the tutelage of my Fiduciary-counselor. Am I selling? Absolutely not.. I am going to sit back and observe how this all plays out.

[@HectorWhitney]

That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this manager for my dwindling portfolio. Who’s the professional guiding you?

[@Jersderakerguoe]

Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

[@SandraDave.]

I checked Melissa up out of curiosity and i must say i am impressed by her Credentials. i emailed her already, waiting on her response.

[@garyallen5574]

Jim Bianco is a financial analyst that has earned my respect.

[@theinflationsituation8870]

You the man, JB!

[@eugene1059]

Yes I did enjoy the interview thank you.

[@Quantitative_Teasing]

Bianco is awesome

[@ronaldmcdonald3965]

65 year old boomer here. Yup, that is what I am doing.

[@stevenk195]

58 year old here. Retired at 53. Collecting 5% on income + principle + debtfree = No rush no need to take on massive equity risk. Some equity...for inflation hedging and mild growth, but that's it.

[@SurprisedFirzen]

It makes 100% sense. No need for huge drawdowns. Risk reward is not there.

[@JK-zw8ec]

Thanks!

[@bethstrycharz2159]

I'm reading this April 30 2024... looks like you are right so far, feds aren't raising or lowering rates as of today nor do I think tomorrow/ Fed meeting May 1. Looks like rates will hold steady until after the election and maybe until beginning of next year.

[@Hattusa]

15:08 Can't wait for the Bianco/Arbor Research presentation on how to invest for a civil war.

[@JackHawkinswrites]

Buy food that has a long shelf life, a self sufficient farm facility,

[@bestofsatish]

With US debt at $35 trillion and other govt debt at $10tn, total amounts to 45$tn. This means a interest burden of $2.25tn which translates to 7% inflation. Assuming some revenue increases of 250bn$ and productivity increases of 0.5%, we are going to see well over 5% inflation, if the current trajectory goes on. if we want to achieve 2% inflation, then something like commodities must give up or big countries to collapse or some big corporates to collapse. why i bet for commodity collapse is because, it not only reduces inflation directly, it also takes away demand from oil producing countries like ME, Africa, Latin America etc which will bring the prices down due to excess supply. other one of collapsing countries like Argentina, Pakistan, turkey could help but that will be temporary. summing up Oil must fall below $30/Barrel to have prolonged inflation below 2%

[@jhull5870]

Jim is correct that the FED will not lower or raise rates before the election unless there is a Black Swan event where the markets crash by more than 20 to 30%.

[@bhe8336]

Market is definitely going higher before the election. There is a lot of FUD that can act as a tailwind medium term.

[@MrMustachehead]

Whats the point of holding bonds at 5% while real inflation is much higher?

[@lawrencefeldman462]

Short bonds are making money. Trade in and out each month been a win this year. Why risk money in the market. So easy to make a profit.

[@stevenk195]

because soon it will not be? Murdered market from suffocating high rates? Every individual and/or business will eventually have to draw on finances. Just considering the amount of businesses that are going to have to refinance by 2026 at much higher rates; it is going to start to really pinch the economy. Guessing when to leap out of money markets, and/or short duration treasuries, is a fools game. The longer duration bonds will move way before you have a chance to extend your duration position out. Better to seize 5%+ rates longer duration (say intermediate 6-8 years) soon and enjoy the longer-term money market like rates for many years when short term rates are cut. And say nothing of the bond appreciation when rates are cut from a collapsing/recession economy.

[@user-eb3pi4tv9k]

and do what else with it instead? Buy stocks and watch them cut cut in half like 2022 again? I’m v happy getting 5.40 on T bills, bringing in over 100k a year and as I live offshore tax free, luverly.

[@davidchristoph573]

​@@user-eb3pi4tv9ksounds good 😊 what is your offshore strategy?

[@ssuwandi3240]

Not free. Capital gains taxes will increase exponentially

[@tinganddanny]

Did you see the citi US economic surprise index? The US economy is not as good as you think

[@runningdonut]

He’s right on the Bitcoin etfs. Has no effect on price in this environment

[@dalemccall562]

Give me you data on how many of those “jobs” that everyone can get are full time!

[@user-py7wp6nw9h]

I don’t care much about this conversation since I ve heard Jim on this topic on other shows. But she is stunningly beautiful just so sexy and very pretty to look at. And that s all that matters

[@sumitomoO0O]

Bottom half better buy a gas efficient small car instead of driving trucks...and eat at home instead of going to restaurant....or use less make up and avoid the cancer from all make up related chemicals

[@Relaxlifeisshort2]

Jim stop believing the fake numbers

[@warrenmaker798]

Opening Quote: "The economy is doing better than people think" Quickly hit the dislike button, LOL

[@DrYield]

It is, if you are on the asset owning percentage

[@JackHawkinswrites]

The economy in Arizona is booming. Tourism is up, hotel construction is omnipresent. Multiple microchip fab facilities are being built. Maybe you should move, mobility is the key to victory

[@deepakshetty1965]

Crypto is just another men made USD derivative, there can be millions of such things. Neither it's neutral asset, counter party risk exist. It's in fact worse than Fiat system since it's more volatile. Just a hype.

[@SteveKlare-iq7zx]

As a Retired person the last thing I want to be in in a big way is the stock market . I’m pulling for a couple more rate hikes.