If I’m Right On The 10-Year Yield, Watch How Bearish Everyone’s Going To Be | Jim Bianco

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Bianco Research

Bianco Research

Күн бұрын

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 165 to discuss the current macro picture and the potential impact of inflation on the economy.
In this episode, he highlights the bifurcated nature of the economy, with inflation posing a challenge for lower-income individuals. Bianco also shares his insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the outlook for long-term interest rates. He thinks rates for the 10-year are likely headed higher to 5-5.5% and breaks down what that could mean for asset allocation, including crypto.
Elsewhere, he weights in on his concerns surrounding the narrative of the Bitcoin ETF, while emphasizing the need for a comprehensive alternative financial system.
Links:
BiancoResearch.com
BiancoAdvisors.com
biancoresearch
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco and intro
0:59 Macro picture
1:49 Stickier inflation
4:27 Bifurcated economy
6:06 Interest rate policy outlook
7:50 Fed is not partisan but it is political
9:29 Rates on the 10-year likely headed to 5-5.5%
12:00 The Fed doesn’t change policy in the summer up to election day
13:19 Implications for 10-year at 5-5.5%
19:59 Demographics
24:01 Bitcoin ETF
31:38 How Bitcoin gets to $1 million
34:10 Parting thoughts

Пікірлер: 47
@DorathyJoy
@DorathyJoy Ай бұрын
In these uncertain times, it's more important than ever to have a solid understanding of how to manage your finances, invest wisely and navigate economic downturns. But my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $240k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I'm all in on the long term game, but with my savings are lying waste to inflation and my portfolio losing gains everyday, I need a remedy.
@Michaelparker12
@Michaelparker12 Ай бұрын
If you need advice, consider speaking with a financial advisor. Don't get me wrong, you can do it on your own, but financial advisors have a lot more knowledge and expertise in this area.
@Jersderakerguoe
@Jersderakerguoe Ай бұрын
you are completely right, Advisors have information and paths that are not disclosed to the public.. I profited £560k in 2022 under the tutelage of my Fiduciary-counselor. Am I selling? Absolutely not.. I am going to sit back and observe how this all plays out.
@HectorWhitney
@HectorWhitney Ай бұрын
That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this manager for my dwindling portfolio. Who’s the professional guiding you?
@Jersderakerguoe
@Jersderakerguoe Ай бұрын
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
@SandraDave.
@SandraDave. Ай бұрын
I checked Melissa up out of curiosity and i must say i am impressed by her Credentials. i emailed her already, waiting on her response.
@garyallen5574
@garyallen5574 Ай бұрын
Jim Bianco is a financial analyst that has earned my respect.
@theinflationsituation8870
@theinflationsituation8870 Ай бұрын
You the man, JB!
@eugene1059
@eugene1059 Ай бұрын
Yes I did enjoy the interview thank you.
@Quantitative_Teasing
@Quantitative_Teasing Ай бұрын
Bianco is awesome
@ronaldmcdonald3965
@ronaldmcdonald3965 Ай бұрын
65 year old boomer here. Yup, that is what I am doing.
@stevenk195
@stevenk195 Ай бұрын
58 year old here. Retired at 53. Collecting 5% on income + principle + debtfree = No rush no need to take on massive equity risk. Some equity...for inflation hedging and mild growth, but that's it.
@SurprisedFirzen
@SurprisedFirzen Ай бұрын
It makes 100% sense. No need for huge drawdowns. Risk reward is not there.
@bethstrycharz2159
@bethstrycharz2159 Ай бұрын
I'm reading this April 30 2024... looks like you are right so far, feds aren't raising or lowering rates as of today nor do I think tomorrow/ Fed meeting May 1. Looks like rates will hold steady until after the election and maybe until beginning of next year.
@JK-zw8ec
@JK-zw8ec Ай бұрын
Thanks!
@Hattusa
@Hattusa Ай бұрын
15:08 Can't wait for the Bianco/Arbor Research presentation on how to invest for a civil war.
@JackHawkinswrites
@JackHawkinswrites Ай бұрын
Buy food that has a long shelf life, a self sufficient farm facility,
@MrMustachehead
@MrMustachehead Ай бұрын
Whats the point of holding bonds at 5% while real inflation is much higher?
@lawrencefeldman462
@lawrencefeldman462 Ай бұрын
Short bonds are making money. Trade in and out each month been a win this year. Why risk money in the market. So easy to make a profit.
@stevenk195
@stevenk195 Ай бұрын
because soon it will not be? Murdered market from suffocating high rates? Every individual and/or business will eventually have to draw on finances. Just considering the amount of businesses that are going to have to refinance by 2026 at much higher rates; it is going to start to really pinch the economy. Guessing when to leap out of money markets, and/or short duration treasuries, is a fools game. The longer duration bonds will move way before you have a chance to extend your duration position out. Better to seize 5%+ rates longer duration (say intermediate 6-8 years) soon and enjoy the longer-term money market like rates for many years when short term rates are cut. And say nothing of the bond appreciation when rates are cut from a collapsing/recession economy.
@user-eb3pi4tv9k
@user-eb3pi4tv9k Ай бұрын
and do what else with it instead? Buy stocks and watch them cut cut in half like 2022 again? I’m v happy getting 5.40 on T bills, bringing in over 100k a year and as I live offshore tax free, luverly.
@davidchristoph573
@davidchristoph573 Ай бұрын
​@@user-eb3pi4tv9ksounds good 😊 what is your offshore strategy?
@ssuwandi3240
@ssuwandi3240 Ай бұрын
Not free. Capital gains taxes will increase exponentially
@jhull5870
@jhull5870 Ай бұрын
Jim is correct that the FED will not lower or raise rates before the election unless there is a Black Swan event where the markets crash by more than 20 to 30%.
@bhe8336
@bhe8336 Ай бұрын
Market is definitely going higher before the election. There is a lot of FUD that can act as a tailwind medium term.
@bestofsatish
@bestofsatish Ай бұрын
With US debt at $35 trillion and other govt debt at $10tn, total amounts to 45$tn. This means a interest burden of $2.25tn which translates to 7% inflation. Assuming some revenue increases of 250bn$ and productivity increases of 0.5%, we are going to see well over 5% inflation, if the current trajectory goes on. if we want to achieve 2% inflation, then something like commodities must give up or big countries to collapse or some big corporates to collapse. why i bet for commodity collapse is because, it not only reduces inflation directly, it also takes away demand from oil producing countries like ME, Africa, Latin America etc which will bring the prices down due to excess supply. other one of collapsing countries like Argentina, Pakistan, turkey could help but that will be temporary. summing up Oil must fall below $30/Barrel to have prolonged inflation below 2%
@tinganddanny
@tinganddanny Ай бұрын
Did you see the citi US economic surprise index? The US economy is not as good as you think
@runningdonut
@runningdonut Ай бұрын
He’s right on the Bitcoin etfs. Has no effect on price in this environment
@dalemccall562
@dalemccall562 Ай бұрын
Give me you data on how many of those “jobs” that everyone can get are full time!
@user-py7wp6nw9h
@user-py7wp6nw9h Ай бұрын
I don’t care much about this conversation since I ve heard Jim on this topic on other shows. But she is stunningly beautiful just so sexy and very pretty to look at. And that s all that matters
@sumitomoO0O
@sumitomoO0O Ай бұрын
Bottom half better buy a gas efficient small car instead of driving trucks...and eat at home instead of going to restaurant....or use less make up and avoid the cancer from all make up related chemicals
@Relaxlifeisshort2
@Relaxlifeisshort2 Ай бұрын
Jim stop believing the fake numbers
@warrenmaker798
@warrenmaker798 Ай бұрын
Opening Quote: "The economy is doing better than people think" Quickly hit the dislike button, LOL
@DrYield
@DrYield Ай бұрын
It is, if you are on the asset owning percentage
@JackHawkinswrites
@JackHawkinswrites Ай бұрын
The economy in Arizona is booming. Tourism is up, hotel construction is omnipresent. Multiple microchip fab facilities are being built. Maybe you should move, mobility is the key to victory
@deepakshetty1965
@deepakshetty1965 Ай бұрын
Crypto is just another men made USD derivative, there can be millions of such things. Neither it's neutral asset, counter party risk exist. It's in fact worse than Fiat system since it's more volatile. Just a hype.
@SteveKlare-iq7zx
@SteveKlare-iq7zx Ай бұрын
As a Retired person the last thing I want to be in in a big way is the stock market . I’m pulling for a couple more rate hikes.
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