BIS2022 - Autonomous Ride-Hailing: Driving Unprecedented Economic Productivity

Download ARK's Big Ideas report and watch as the ARK research team and special guests present our latest conclusions at #BIS2022! ARK's Big Ideas 2022: ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2022/
We believe autonomous ride-hailing will reduce the cost of mobility to one-eighth the average cost of ride-hail today, spurring widespread adoption and unleashing unprecedented economic productivity.
Originally aired on January 25, Big Ideas Summit 2022 features in-depth presentations from ARK's research team and seeks to educate attendees on the impact of breakthrough technologies and the investment opportunities they could create.
Change appears to happen slowly and then all at once. Over time, innovation should displace industry incumbents, increase efficiencies, and gain majority market share. With the right understanding of disruptive innovation and a long-term time horizon, we believe investors will capture exponential growth opportunities, which deserve a strategic allocation in their portfolios. For this reason, ARK focuses on opportunities likely to scale as technologies converge, transforming entire industries.
To enlighten investors on the impact of breakthrough technologies we began publishing Big Ideas in 2017. This annual research report seeks to highlight our most provocative research conclusions for the coming year. We hope you enjoy our Big Ideas for 2022.
To learn more about ARK: ark-invest.com
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Disclosure: arkinv.st/39rzF94

[@trends-friend]

ark: trillions and trillions of market opportunity from commuter miles also ark: zm is our #3 holding

[@RosscoAW]

Yeah, we still live under capitalism, where only a small minority of the population has the privilege of stable, profitable employment that they can do remotely. The vast majority of the working class (y'know, people living literally paycheque to paycheque, at best) do menial, manual, boring, repetitive, or otherwise physical or in-person work that can't be Zoomed, and will still be commuting therefore. It's the wealthy and the professionally skilled that don't have to commute for work, outside of "business travel," which they likely aren't paying for in that case personally anyway. Considering how much the working class spends on commuting already, this is likely to usher in the single largest wealth attribution to the working poor in modern capitalist history, by virtue of the massive reduction in inelastic expenses (commuting) and reduction in unpaid labour (time spent driving) that can be spent on anything from Netflix (generating GDP, at least) or attending remote classes while commuting. Some of the working poor will no longer live (quite as) paycheque-to-paycheque, freeing them up to up-skill via education, or take risks that they previously couldn't afford (invest, start a small business, resume education, start a family -- all of which are GDP creating in aggregate). Meaning, even while there's a bifurcation (working poor commute more, vs wealthy skilled professionals that do remote/flexible work), it will be much more possible for members of the working poor to access socioeconomic mobility opportunities (whether by up-skilling, saving money, investing, or just not accruing as much debt as previously), purchase property, invest in their futures, and ultimately cease to qualify as "working poor". So, any increase in addressable market and economic opportunity generated by autonomous driving will inherently, over time, also create additional addressable market (additively) in the addressable market of remote work providers/services, such as Zoom. They're not mutually exclusive economic opportunities.

[@SmoothHov24]

Autonomous driving is a decade away at minimum. Prepare yourself for “next year” for the next ten years

[@bntagkas]

i bet you autonomous driving will be here by tesla by end of 2024, being kinda conservative

[@harrychu650]

Simply great value at these levels. I am adding to my position at $700 and encourage others to consider whether this level fits their investment strategy and time horizon.

[@GodofStories]

In Recession, everything will be cheaper, what is cheap or great value? If you are paying something like 20x sales for Tesla right now? Why not 10x sales?

[@Alex29713]

@@GodofStories p/s is 13 right now. Revenue is growing 70% per year and probably more.

[@harrychu650]

@@GodofStories I know smart people who sold in 2009 who expressed the same sentiment and have yet to buy back "cheaper." Good luck.

[@FactsAboutTheWorld.]

Cruise, Argo, Waymo, Baidu in China are already live with robotaxis. Musk has been promising since 2016 and still nothing. Failed promises.

[@davedupond1231]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@simond19782]

Great talk! Thank you!

[@Renould2010]

Great data, Cathy Woods Children Love you, 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾👑💎💙💯

[@aria2917]

Incredible work Tasha

[@stldweller]

are you a bot?

[@Alex29713]

@@stldweller some people actually like Arks work.

[@MarketOracleTV]

@@stldweller ARK has invested $2 billiion in a bot stock that puts fake coments on their videos and tweets

[@aria2917]

@@MarketOracleTV i doubt that, plus i am clearly not a bot lmao

[@stldweller]

@@Alex29713, ok, that didn't occur to me. I think the research they are doing is valuable I just dont think it can sustain these long down periods. I think in 5 years this company will be gone, but Im willing to be wrong also, thats why I watch.

[@anneliespowell226]

INSAAAANE research. Amazing work, Ark!

[@mnml2006]

Been wondering how the cities will deal with robotaxis. With Uber & Lyft they tacked on their own fees, bumping the fare considerably. If the cities lose revenue from parking & traffic fees/fines, they'll be hunting for it in other places. Maybe Tesla will get $0.25/mile, but the fare will be more than that.

[@Dreammaster-qv6vh]

Great share! There's alot of positives for this technology, but there is some negatives too.😉

[@user-ec6uz9lo5e]

Thanks great

[@Zaerki]

I'm a simple man, I see Tasha and I click

[@jackt3912]

Same here. She needs to be on camera more. Would help ARK for sure 😍

[@RosscoAW]

I love how Tasha roasts Brett at 15:00 about watching Netflix in his robotaxi. Goes to show the respect she has for her Director of Research, knowing she can playfully rib her superior (arguably Brett's the most important decision maker at Ark, alongside if not moreso than Cathie herself) in a public medium like this about such a salient/relevant topic. It's obvious that Ark fosters an incredibly collaborative, integrative, cross-disciplinary, and "progressive" (in the literal if not political sense) environment and that their team spends more than sufficient time with each other to bring out and benefit from the skills and talents of all of their analysts and researchers, so much so that they all seem to unavoidably understand and play off each other very well (especially for such an otherwise "sterile" and professional environment, such as equity/stock market analysis). The indications of phenomenal leadership on the part of Cathie and Brett remain ever-present. Keep it up, team. 👍

[@grantguy8933]

why invest in GM?

[@Steven-996]

Maybe they get more insights into Cruise's robotaxi plans

[@MarketOracleTV]

Because every other stock they have invested in has crashed

[@grantguy8933]

@@MarketOracleTV so GM crash is next?

[@RosscoAW]

They can only own so much Tesla, and reasonable hedging behaviour requires not loading ALL your eggs into one basket -- even if there is really only one basket without holes. It still behooves you to scrounge up other baskets, if at all possible, with as few holes as possible; maybe something happens to your untarnished basket, and/or maybe some of the shitty baskets actually do a good job of carrying *enough* eggs to the finish line, anyway. You'd have lost out by not at least giving the semi-decent shitty baskets a try. ... Stepping away from the obtuse metaphor (sorry lmao), GM is one of the few companies besides Tesla that has actually indicated (at least a *desire/intention*) to be more of a full autonomy service provider and automaker like Tesla, and is at least investing in doing so more aggressively than anybody else (except VW, and Chinese companies). GM is also an American darling, such that it's EXTREMELY unlikely that the American government would ever allow its entire domestic automanufacturing industry to collapse (in this case, meaning those automakers that patronize the UAW the most, and therefore are most directly related to the American electoral systems campaign financing processes in a way that Tesla simply isn't at all). If anything, you can just attribute it to hedging that the American government is protectionist and conservative (in the sense of prioritizing legacy, "traditional" American brands and especially large industrial manufacturers that provide a sense of 'American economic exceptionalism' propaganda) of legacy corporations and will not allow a Tesla-only monopoly to extinct/extinguish that avenue of electoral financing. I mean, straight up, Tesla hasn't generated enough revenue/net income for long enough to be a comparably active participant in the US electoral lobbying and financing system, especially compared to Government Motors, so it's sort of delusional to think that GM won't exploit that moat (arguably the ONLY moat they have) as much as possible with the specter of being bankrupted by Tesla on the medium-term horizon. And that's just *one reason*, frankly, and I've only highlighted it because it's not likely to be the reason Ark would answer with if asked (open source ecosystem or not Ark still has it's own PR to maintain, whereas I don't have any consequences from saying blunt and frankly [should be] obvious shit like this in a KZbin comment).

[@damongnojek3912]

Hey Tasha! Great work! Have you considered the opportunity from the Tesla Bot in “chauffeur” mode? i.e. turning any vehicle ever built, into a robo taxi, simply by having a bot behind the wheel. (I mean anything, 1939 Rolls-Royce, 1968 Mustang, 2003 Camry etc.) Thank you for your consideration.

[@delfimalvaro]

Interesting idea

[@gummixx6885]

it is pretty far out tbh, will be difficult getting away with dropping all those cameras as things stand right now.

[@jackt3912]

Never

[@anthonyyoung6489]

The farce is strong with this one. The farce is very strong.

[@cmk353]

RoboTaxi's secondary purpose will be delivery's when not transporting passengers.

[@GM4ThePeople]

(12:12) "... Autonomous Ride-Hail... could be the most meaningful impact of any innovation in history..." Somebody better call Sid Meier - Autonomous Ride-Hail was not even in his tech tree, last time I checked!

[@skinnymoonbob]

15:44 the impact of IT less than 1 percent? How? Source?

[@janodi516]

you seem to forget to calculate the rising costs of things like unemployment insurance, taxes, utilities etc. 1-Unemployment, obviously it'll take time for the work force to adjust to the new economy 2- Taxes will go up for many reason like Social security and social services, infrastructure to suit autonomous vehicles like roads and traffic systems specifically built for autonomous vehicles sensors those can be a solution's for weather conditions like SNOW. 3- Utilities will cost more specially to upgrade the current electrical infrastructure to handle the massive future load these are only the things one man like me can think of in 5 minutes.

[@derd3]

What’s the value suburban consumers place on the time it takes for a car to arrive?

[@famnaff5136]

Tasha, a 25 mile work commute at 50 cents per mile would be $25 per day (50 x .5) or 280 days per year this would be $7,000 annual. This will not motivate a family to go to one car or to not own a car. The 25 cent rate might do this though. This would have to be driverless and have a 50+% utilization. My guess is 2026/27 for Tesla.

[@agea3280]

No personal vehicle with all things considered (fuel, maint., depreciation, insurance, parking) will beat the 0.50/mile. MANY people will forego car ownership.

[@Alex29713]

@@agea3280 I know I would.

[@MarketOracleTV]

@@agea3280 Humans collect all sorts of shit just so that they can say I OWN IT! We are like magpies filling up our garages with cheap chinese junk.

[@Tien1million]

Cost is not the only factor, and a car is more than purely for commute. People want the freedom and convenient to hop on their car at any given moment for social events or emergency. People like to customize their cars with blings. They want to enjoy their music with a certain stereo setup, they want their car to have a specific sound, a unique smell, or a different suspension feel. People like to hang out with their buddies, and their girlfriend/boyfriend driving around, making random stops and explore the town. There are endless reasons for people to wanting to own a car. It's an extension of their personality. I do think that once Robo-Taxi is a reality a lot of people will opt in and get rid of their car. The question is how many, what kind of ratio can we expect. I think that Ark is too technical, all about the math and numbers, that they forget about the human factor.

[@famnaff5136]

I think this alternative will be clearer to us when it is actually in operation.@@Tien1million

[@ninerfan801]

Why did you not provide any companies that wi be doing the ride sharing?

[@Alex29713]

Tesla?

[@JonathanSorunke]

Tesla, everyone else is super far behind

[@sliceofheaven3026]

This future just sounds way too close. So in year 2030 there will be cars that not only drive themselves around but which can be used just to randomly pick up people and deliver them to different places.Also why would people pay cars to drive themselves around when there are buses and trains which are far more capable of transporting large groups of people from place to place. But in this vision somehow private individuals will use their cars as taxis for some reason while they are not using those cars themselves? What if someone vomits in that car...or drops food in the car during the ride?

[@RosscoAW]

First 2/3 of your comment is just lack of imagination and/or back future prediction on your part. Do the due diligence yourself, if you don't believe Ark, like some of the rest of us have done (before ever knowing about Ark in the first place). It's not a very challenging conclusion to arrive at, if you actually exercise sufficient critical thinking. The end of your comment (vomit, food) just present additional economic opportunities (the equivalent of service providers/maintainers for robotaxis) to generate revenue from the robotaxi economy. For example, fleet providers will obviously be paying attendants or similar to manage issues like that, and the economic service model of the industry will likely price in surcharges or affect a users ride-hail scoring (or some other abstraction) to manage problematic robotaxi users. That's part of the reason Teslas have had interior, passenger-facing cameras built into them for literally years now. Sidenote, if you think 2030 is close, then I either have to commend you for having a realistically long-term time horizon for your predictive analysis (...which I think it's safe to say isn't the case...), or admonish you for the self-defeating irony of thinking technological innovation still moves at the same pace it did a century ago while posting as much in the form of a comment on a KZbin video on the global internet, both of which involve hardware and software computing and information technology stacks that have grown faster and smarter in your own lifetime than you have *by far* and which *still* show an *accelerating* pace of innovation. TL;DR: No shade, but your comment is just textbook linear thinking (again, no shade, just being literal). Go (re-?)learn how logarithms work, incase you've forgotten that Wright's law is generally the basis for Ark's cost decline analytics.

[@tjampman]

Because America does not have a public transport system. Expect robotaxies to be heavily regulated Europe. (if they ever come through on their promises)

[@lionpolis]

what about wejo

[@deant007]

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽

[@jimbob483]

The annual GDP graph is a little hard to believe. The steam engine had less than a 1% impact on GDP growth? IT? Are you joking?

[@MarketOracleTV]

Hey go easy on the toddler! she's learned to walk.

[@Alex29713]

Source?

[@sliceofheaven3026]

That is a good point. Steam engine was the key in industrial revolution in the first place it powered factories, ships, trains and so on.

[@Sodainspace]

Sorry but ARKK is fked , lots of junk companies and unicorns pulling it down, Tesla is still an amazing company and great buy

[@OhmicContact]

God damn I love holding my TSLA

[@stevenr732]

Cathy says removing TSLA from ESG (ridiculous) true it's bs, but what's really ridiculous selling TSLA an buying GM TSLA all the way, ARK sunk Never Bet Against Elon

[@pwells10]

yeah. I'm losing faith in ARK.

[@user-xb6fl9ri6g]

As an IT/Networking guy who used to be a mechanic, ya'll are on crack. Self driving tech isn't remotely ready, batteries are still too expensive, autonomous EV trucks will NEVER be cheaper than rail. Commenting here because you turned comments off on your vid with Peter Zeihan.

[@MarketOracleTV]

I think ARK inhabit an alternative universe, where pigs fly. Your mom, Cathie is INSANE!

[@RosscoAW]

It's an alternate universe called "predicting the future," but you're welcome to stare at a static photo of the present and feel self-satisfied with yourself all you want. That is your right. You're just not doing what Ark's doing, is all; but more power to ya.

[@johnreaume64]

They are very good people that’s why they always underestimate the evil Force to wage war Against humanity

[@serendipity1328]

I've purchased ARKK at $139. Can you tell me who will cover my loss caused because of Moron Cathy??

[@pwells10]

why did you guys sell a bunch of TSLA. address the elephant in the room everyone wants to know. I'm considering exiting my ARKK position, already closed ARKQ on the GM purchase.

[@RosscoAW]

They've addressed this multiple times, in many ways, including over the years. If you trust your own capital allocation skills more than the entire Ark Invest time, you do you. Trust your gut. You might be right. You'll never know until you take the risk.

[@bntagkas]

@@RosscoAW doubt it from a person like him who literally asks question on youtube comment as if its something wild, instead of asking it on google where it would be easily answered do not trust your own brain my guy you aint got it

[@DayTradeEssentials]

Greatest assembly of pie in the sky thinkers at this joint. What a cult this outfit has become!

[@omarmiz]

Air Taxis will never happen. Nobody wants a swarm of loud heavy machines flying over their heads. Maybe tunnels instead.

[@MJB0328]

She was a sales caller before coming to Ark. Cold called potential new client companies to introduce Applied Value and find future engagement opportunities. So what makes her an expert in this field? None of her experiences qualify her. None. God help you investing in Ark. It’s criminal almost what these people say they analyze. Analysis is one thing. They lost billions of others money. Again what’s making her the expert in this from her past experiences or even qualify her to make investment recommendations? It’s a runaway train with excuses to say it will happen 10 years from now. ETF From 161 to 38 is not a fall but a disaster and tragedy.

[@RosscoAW]

Oh hey, it's you again. I'm confused, what are you doing watching these videos if you don't cognitively grasp and agree with the investment strategy, yourself? Obviously you're escaping from something IRL, but I'm just confused why that would lead you to do so in *this form,* instead of like, alcohol, television, video games, or gambling, or whatever like a normal person. Given the content of your messages, I'd think you'd enjoy reading (...maybe newspapers, if not actual literature; no offense), so you'd probably be better off -- emotionally speaking -- if you spent more time on that instead of shouting into the digital void like this. The only people listening to you are bored assholes like me; lord knows Tasha and Cathie aren't wasting their time reading a *KZbin comments section* to see what Min Bartoe the commentor thinks about their qualifications. They've got AUM inflows and outflows, client feedback, and their analysts interacting directly with researchers and field experts in the open (just check Twitter for 3 minutes lmao) to provide them aaall the critical feedback they could need and want. So, this brings me back to what exactly is your goal here? I'm just genuinely curious, to be honest. After all, you *know* you aren't going to convince anybody here, you know nobody at Ark is reading your comments (nevermind caring), you know the only ppl that will agree with you are those that have been burned by their own short-term back decision making or otherwise are bitter and seeking an angsty form of escapism, so what exactly are you trying to achieve? I suppose the reasonable conclusion is you FOMO'ed and bought on a high, and then panic sold and sold at a low in response to CNBS, or something, and are now just venting (externalizing, in psychological terms) your self-guilt/self-blame over losses you went out of your way to realize and now regret. But... that's also really cliche, and I feel, tbh, kind of unfair and uncharitable of me to assume is the case; after all, you've put some effort into pseudo-stalking Ark's analysts Linkedin's, which indicates you're at least capable of doing your own due diligence in the first place, so that contradiction is confusing. If I'm right in my assumptions and that's the case, then why are you so upset? Or, asked another way, if that is the case, what led you to buy Ark on such a high in the first place, and then sell at such a low afterwards? That sounds like the behaviour of somebody acting on faith (and/or spontaneity), not the utilization of logic and critical thinking in relation to capital allocation.

[@jackt3912]

But damn is she nice to look at.

[@MarketOracleTV]

FFSK, these ARK children are clueless, the only thing your disrupting are the portfolios of the poor fools who invested in ARK no earnings stocks garbage funds.

[@JS-bk4pn]

$TSLA, $ZM, $SQ all have earnings.

[@RosscoAW]

If you FOMO'ed into Ark on a high, and sold on emotion (a market low), then frankly you're the one redistributing wealth to us. The gains I make that I'll be attributing to charities and progressive political action/advocacy in the future will be, in part, thanks to your generous wealth redistribution. Thank you, I applaud your contribution.

[@bennyt8267]

More BS.

[@sirus312]

ride sharing by xmas lmao

[@MarketOracleTV]

They are like toddlers learning to invest. dadddaaaa daaa daaaa daa

[@davedupond1231]

What a load of nonsense. Can I have your job. I mean come one what can of research is that.. ?