Bitcoin’s Power Law Path to $1 Million

In this video, Nik dives into the mathematical heart of Bitcoin's future with statistical wizard Stephen Perrenod. They unravel the complex relationship between power laws and Bitcoin's market, and explain why bitcoin's growth isn't just exponential, but follows a fascinating power law pattern that could push its value to $1 million by 2033. From the diminishing impact of halvings to the mysterious Lindy effect, this deep-dive analysis compares bitcoin's volatility with gold, explores market bubbles, and reveals how simple mathematical models can predict trajectory.
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The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

[@XarisJoJo]

This video really opened my eyes to some key points, great job explaining it! I've been dealing with significant losses in the market, even after trying multiple strategies. It feels like no matter what I do, I can’t seem to stay ahead. The volatility is intense, and I'm struggling to find a clear path forward. How are others managing this? It seems like I’m always just one step behind.

[@MateokiLove]

Personally, I've had a lot of success working with a registered representative named *Ulric Bruce* His approach is thorough-he considers factors like market trends, regulatory shifts, and adoption rates. It’s been a game-changer for making informed investment choices instead of getting caught up in market hype. Plus, there’s no need to pay upfront.

[@XarisJoJo]

@@MateokiLove That sounds intriguing! How can I get in touch with Ulric Bruce as well?

[@MateokiLove]

+153

[@MateokiLove]

9967

[@MateokiLove]

1542

[@srileo]

I enjoy Niks calm rationale

[@michaelhillary6810]

Man yeah, just good ole solid information via conversation.

[@foilosophy]

Accuracy in mathematical terminology is important for serious discussion. Well done.

[@stanleyrizzo]

Nik, after much deliberation after consuming your content over the past few years, I have come to the realization that I like the coin. All signs point towards me liking the coin. Thank you for helping me come to this realization with conviction. All the best.

[@SanmeetPannu]

Keeping up with current trends and strategies can help traders stay ahead of the curve and make informed decisions, It is important for beginners in trading and investing to understand that success in these fields requires technical analysis, emotional maturity, and self-discipline. Thanks to Loraine Souvenir’s insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings. Kudos to the journey ahead!

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Having access to reliable information is crucial for us as investors to succeed both financially and in life. This is valuable, I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this

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Wealth building and financial freedom are attainable with the right knowledge and tools. Using proper financial strategies and products is essential to growing and sustaining long-term wealth.. glad to know you want others to succeed

[@nathaliuk]

It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Loraine Souvenir. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure

[@Pennapa-fi3nr]

Thank you for sharing your experience. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $87k to $246k as of today..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.

[@abbieseitzinger]

I'm so impressed knowing how much people talk good about her expertise, i’ve been following Loraine’s strategies for months now, and I’ve finally reached the financial stability I’ve been striving for. Loraine's program has been the key to my success

[@Namegoeshere-op9hg]

This is subtle but huge.

[@paradise6606]

Thank you both.

[@graywz]

I appreciate the rigourous, professional approach to analysing BTC's price history using tried and true mathematics. It's so much more confidence-building in BTC's long-term future than hearing people's "I feel" and "I believe" or some of the non-professional mathematics we see in STF.

[@johnnymidas5879]

THANKS NIK 👍

[@dgunn2817]

Great interview.

[@misty671]

Power Law rules. 💪 BTC to $200k in 2025. 🍻

[@2maw1wrimike]

The only problem is this math assumes a closed system. I think the system is more like water behind a dam. The dam operated like an increasing amount of water was overtopping the dam into the river. This is what the power law represents/models. With the ETFs, it is now like the dam broke and water is rushing into the river. Evidence is the ETFs are the biggest/fastest ever, all time. It could be a step change and/or a complete system dynamics change, eithet way seems like new tech (etfs, for the system) causes new mathematical formula for this cycle. I agree that it is virtuous cycle/system

[@mskmsk7174]

You could be onto something there.

[@mskmsk7174]

That was excellent. We need to have that explained again and again in different variations to make it stick.

[@jamesthompson3099]

Very well done. I was taking notes and screen shots like mad for later analysis. Thanks for posting this.

[@diddy1302]

The power law advocates can clearly state what has happened but they never touch on WHY a power law should exist for bitcoin. I believe this is where most of the doubters (including myself) have an issue. I really can’t see why a power law should apply to an asset such as this. It really doesn’t make sense to me.

[@stephenperrenod4220]

Price ~ Adoption squared. Metcalfe’s law of networks. And adoption measured by adresses non-zero balance has gone as around the cube of time. Go read up on Metcalfe’s Law.

[@ce5983]

Why should a power law exist for lifetime/ growth of cities ? Or for the number of gas stations in a city for that matter ? Or for the size of celestial objects? If you really want to dive deep, I recommend the book called Scale by Geoffrey West that examines power laws and scale invariant phenomena. It's a reassuring thing to see a power law emerge in the data for Bitcoin in so many ways. It hints to me at least that Bitcoin is more likely than not to be here to stay and likely will outlive me. It hints that there is something about its spread that is "organic" for lack of a better term. it's not a meteor burning up in the atmosphere, but more like something that takes root and spreads like language and culture.

[@Swanseaguy1979]

Keep stacking

[@johnelder5311]

Great video

[@philipmoffett9381]

I don't think that bitcoin will decline this time because now there is a shortage of bitcoin. Part of this is because the amount of bitcoin created is much less.

[@mskmsk7174]

It will definitely decline, but from a much higher top. I can see it dropping all the way down to $80k per btc in the next bear phase.

[@doortjeD]

tnx!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@adambui7935]

excellent, it was volatile in the first 210,000 blocks or 1st cycle then after the next consecutive 210,000 it go tiers and tiers following it designed path which is the power law path.

[@londonspade5896]

Could probably do a real estate vs BTC power law graph to illustrate how housing becomes cheaper when priced in BTC

[@bitcoinpoemspro1406]

Thx

[@The_Oracle_of_time]

We'll all see a million dollar Bitcoin far sooner than we think.

[@wwt17]

We will also see increased debasement, so a million-dollar btc will be worth a lot less than a million in real terms.

[@exelmans8855]

@@wwt17true.

[@niklas8787]

Great analysis, thanks!

[@bgbusiness_]

time stamps please.

[@casamurphy]

A power law is a useful projection of a floor. That plus quantile regressions give useful range projections over near-term timeframes.

[@mskmsk7174]

Translate to English please 😂

[@casamurphy]

@@mskmsk7174 search for this KZbin video title for statistical expert discussion: "Bitcoin Quantile Regression Channel the Most Accurate Bitcoin Price Prediction Model"

[@Haley2077]

This is a very nice video. I do enjoy watching it. Thanks :)

[@KenNewcomb]

Exponential, y = constant ^ x Power-law, y = x ^ constant

[@robvaneck5410]

16 years to reach 3-4M seems far out. I think within 8 yrs. Print. War. Print.

[@adambui7935]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOO. STOP IT. BITCOIN IS NOT A MILLION IN THE NEXT 15 YEARS DUDEE. 1 MILLION IN THE 6TH CYCLE WHICH IS 2029. REMEMBER BITCOIN VALUES ARE KNOWN.

[@MegaHowtoMan]

What cycle are we in now? BTC is 67800 now. What do you think it will be in 2025?

[@NyorexDC]

​@@MegaHowtoMan 67801

[@adambui7935]

Dudee we r in the 5th floor. 2025 it is obvious and known. The value of bitcoin in 2025 is known

[@JJ-zg1hh]

​@adambui7935 how can you 'know' a price within a dynamic market such as this one? Everyone hopes the bitcoin price will increase, but nothing is certain!

[@carpenoctem3431]

hey man, can you please tell me where to find these values you speak of online, new to all this, thanks

[@Soulwalrus1]

When he says ‘epic’ does he mean ‘epoch’ ?

[@russv.winkle8764]

Dudes saying Epic or Epoch ??

[@NyorexDC]

epoch ,

[@GRumpyonekinobi]

I defo heard epic

[@BeFaithful00]

Saying epic, but obviously intends epoch.

[@NorseYggrasil]

Epoch which can be pronounced the same as epic.

[@GRumpyonekinobi]

@NorseYggrasil but for someone discussing the semantics of words I.e. exponential - he really should make better use of the E to really say Epoch instead of ep...

[@1mmafrka]

Why over complicate things. Just Hodl and chill.

[@wesearnest5936]

Quit tapping on the mic.

[@sbutle01]

This is really dumb because it assumes all other things remain the same. The dollar isn’t going to be worth hardly anything in 2040.

[@dimitri9959]

Why is it none of the people talking about the power law present a formula? Is it self evident or is it proprietary? I’m not a mathematician so I may just be ignorant and naive.

[@mskmsk7174]

Yes, your assumption of yourself could be accurate.

[@GreenisYellow]

I like what I hear

[@GabrielVasquez-m7y]

I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. I appreciate the level-headed approach you take to the news and the markets. A lot has changed and that's on everything but the truth is I don't even care much about bullish or bearish market anymore because Victoria Wiezorek got me cover as am comfortably making $18,539 weekly.

[@ShelleyDoeden]

I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of her clients testimonies on CNBC news last week...

[@ChristopherAllsbrook]

Victoria Wiezorek strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started

[@TommyWilliams-b9m]

Really you people know her? I was even thinking that I'm the only one she has helped walk through the fears and falls of trading

[@HamiltonHawkins-b4s]

Please, how do I connect with Victoria Wiezorek? I would appreciate if you show me how to go about it

[@CeciliaStewart-v2v]

The first time we had tried, we invested $1400 and after a week we received $5,230. That really helped us a lot to pay our bills.

[@KK-sg5gl]

Why does bitcoin need to prove itself if it’s following a power law? Are you suggesting that it will fail to continue following a power law? Either it is a power law, and lives on, or it doesn’t live on, and isn’t a power law. Can’t have it both ways.

[@mskmsk7174]

Yes you can

[@adambui7935]

bitcoin adoption is irrelevant to bitcoin power law once bitcoin got the minimum of 210,000 blocks to be mined

[@ggrthemostgodless8713]

Yes, gold is growing by abut 2% per year BY DESIGN. So I wonder if this can be rapidly increased if need be, if all nations start buying or accumulating gold in a few years, as the BRICS seem to be doing?? Also some say the price of gold is fixed by some sort of consortium in charge of gold supply, cannot be enforced but does direct it... KITKO news has a smart guy talking about this in a video from last week.

[@mann234]

12:56

[@adambui7935]

no! the bubbles are also power law.

[@mskmsk7174]

No they are not.

[@paradise6606]

Can you give us this number in dollar verse time.

[@jushaw]

Sorry, I can't get into Power Law .....

[@mskmsk7174]

That's too bad.

[@drwayne_carter9115]

Alright, that's enough Hopium for today

[@martinlutherkingjr.5582]

This guy’s price prediction is pretty bearish

[@erikowren7894]

This was not the explanation I wanted. Nut the one we all needed.

[@mskmsk7174]

wrong

[@WilliamHartwin21]

I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Katherine Stewart.

[@MikeCallender31]

Wow. I'm a bit stunned seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super

[@ChristineWalken]

She is my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.

[@AidenCheatle23]

You invest with Katherine Stewart too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

[@DannyRodriguez158]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@HeatherGuzman470]

I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much.

[@tommydOU]

Thanks for the break from your TDS

[@librapower7810]

Pure hopium , it never going to be like gold which is constantly setting ath after ath . Btc cash cow all gains in first cycle when it was like a meme coin take that out and its cagr is quite underwhelming

[@etfbit]

"inflation is now less than 1%, so who cares"... ummm.... uhhhh.... ummm... yeah

[@adambui7935]

bitcoin values are KNOWN! WE DON'T NEED PREDICTION

[@titsonafish]

What do you mean?

[@martinc1036]

The power law is not relevant to btc’s future adoption

[@TheBitcoinLayer]

Interesting.

[@ST46YO]

This guys full of shit. As soon as we beat the returns on the last epoch, his models are destroyed. It only takes a few billionaires to make a decision to allocate and these shenanigans become irrelevant

[@yvrytry5rc]

All your models are destroyed

[@LEDit0ut]

Power law has no hard ceiling. The only thing solid in the power law is the floor.

[@ST46YO]

@@LEDit0ut but its thesis is based on a function with diminishing returns

[@dsflat6785]

Is BTC an authentic version of Bitcoin? There is a $1 Trillion High Court Claim involving many BTC companies including MicroStrategy, Blackrock ad Square for Passing Off BTC as Bitcoin

[@ce5983]

He's not full of shit. The point of this analysis is to understand the underlying structures if any that can be observed in the dynamics surrounding Bitcoin. Nik himself states clearly several times that this is not a future prediction. Both of them know quite well (and made no indication otherwise) that the price can go higher than the regression model suggests going forward. It's your approach that is more "full of shit". Your argument is baseless and you don't realize that itworks as well to suggest Bitcoin's bearish demise. A few billionaires might allocate and "all your models are destroyed".. well by that very same logic billions can leave Bitcoin and "all your models are destroyed" to the downside. Its vacuous. It's like saying "anything can happen". Like yes, it can but so ? It's more valuable to understand and uncover the underlying structure (if any). And that is what is most interesting. That the past 15 years of data actually does reveal a power law. Can it change ? Yes a comet can hit the earth and that changes. The models destroyed. However noticing that the data reveals a power law relationship rather than an exponential, we can reason better about the long term and have a better basis of forming assumptions and opinions in the face of unknowns, e.g. like the future. And that's the point. Reasoning under uncertainty.

[@AzHodl]

Sounds like bullshit to me.

[@dlukton]

Mathematical conclusions about what bitcoin has done SO FAR are objective; the only question is whether btc price will continue to follow the trendline.... on the log/log chart.... that it has exhibited so far.

[@MrJules409]

Still sounds like bullshit

[@dlukton]

@@MrJules409 OK, fine; but if you've got capital to invest, you've got to put it SOMEWHERE; and no matter what decision you make, you're incurring an "opportunity cost" (i.e., you could have invested it somewhere else). So... go ahead and put it in the S&P 500 if you want. You'll do OK with that, but only time will tell if that was the best decision.

[@dainguyen8641]

U dreaming for 1 million dollars 🤣🤣 impossible

[@timgoble9870]

If 10% of gold market cap goes to BTC If 5% of Real Estate market cap goes to BTC If 5% of bonds market cap goes to BTC If fortune 500 companies adopt 5% adoption of BTC as treasury asset reserve. Pick any 2 of the above and you are almost to million. These are such small percentages of what's likely to happen

[@diddy1302]

Why?

[@martinlutherkingjr.5582]

People said the same thing about $10k in 2015.

[@dainguyen8641]

@@martinlutherkingjr.5582 i hope Bitcoin will be 1 million man