Bitcoin: The Most Bullish Scenario

[@intothecryptoverse]

What would you say Bitcoin's personality is?

[@LifelinegamingFilms]

SASSY

[@Top9Best]

Passy

[@EliteLucho]

An angry woman which believes that she never gets enough attention. So we all buy her things(satoshi's) so she makes us happy by increasing in value. :D.

[@irfaankhan8035]

Crazy ex girlfriend

[@marcodarko6929]

Bipolar

[@em8824]

I love the contrast between Ben and standard crypto youtubers! No green writing splashed over the thumbnail of someone gurning while promising "1000x". Love it!

[@zasadacrew]

We gonna have massive, massive, massive, massive, massive, massive and he just got so boring that I had to unsubscribe from that massive, massive turd. ;) Hope you know who I'm talking about.

[@thesharpshootersfl]

This man was just on BitBoy youtube and doesn’t even talk about it or promote It 😂

[@nategreen5560]

No agape mouth and wide eyed facial expression with a cartoon of a nuclear explosion in the background on any video thumbnails is enough

[@ace-id8em]

Next time I show up late to work I will just say "Relax, time is on our side".

[@beefyairgun1376]

Lmao let me know how that goes

[@hodlordie476]

Or, what's a few minutes amongst friends... 😉 good oll Benjamin...funny guy...

[@ace-id8em]

@@matiasss550 My boss doesn't have to know that though, right :)

[@ace-id8em]

@@hodlordie476 Exactly, I will use this in pay negotiations too, what's a few extra dollars amongst friends :)

[@TheDipset1233]

@@matiasss550 time is relative bro

[@shawnlingues4911]

Just scheduled my Forbes interview

[@thabask]

Cancel it time is still on our side

[@dropbear7859]

Bruh have you learnt nothing from watching Ben? 😂 @shawn

[@sirjae]

what you think of hbar?

[@MarshPlays]

Great guess it's time to cancel mine now, thanks man

[@543whitey]

It'll be a long line lol

[@syedashabihzahra4315]

Need this type of analysis for Eth..

[@mr.c9846]

Everyone upvote this so Ben sees.

[@armhammer2680]

He has made hundreds of videos about eth including as recently as yesterday dude...

[@JG-xg7xp]

apples and avocados. same shopping cart

[@philipdipaula9393]

@@shadetree6981 sometimes you just have to go all-in and believe in the heart of the cards

[@maidinh6124]

@@shadetree6981 and what else do you realistically expect? A free KZbin video telling you exactly how to be a millionaire overnight? Not the biggest genius can tell the future🙃

[@thordan1630]

The pen writing got me feeling like I'm watching Khan Academy to try and cram for my engineering exams at 4am. Good stuff Benjamin

[@nategreen5560]

I don't think two datapoints are enough to be able to extrapolate an accurate prediction about a cycle top. Another thing to consider is the adoption curve of crypto, there's still a vast majority of people who don't own any crypto and they inevitably will get into it as mainstream institutions give them their blessing to do so. IMO this cycle will be longer and higher than most people here expect, and most here will sell too soon.

[@SylvanPaul]

I suspect you are correct

[@lifeuncommon1116]

Sell?? What is the meaning of this?

[@dewildekevin]

One of the few that doesn’t use clickbait and chooses to deliver actual value and attract people with quality content. Congrats. To all the other clickbait youtubers, I unfollow and many other will do this as well from the moment they outgrow you and when they realise that they can get better and faster information from Twitter.

[@99waterblade]

yeah just had to unfollow all the clickbait KZbinrs... it gets too much

[@styx85]

Ok I'm going all in

[@user-uk5db9kv7h]

🤣🤣🚀🚀

[@happyharry3060]

Yolo

[@quicksandslowly]

Same. Carpe diem

[@happyharry3060]

Life saving, the lot, Go all the way

[@MercedesMan]

Just sold my dog for more. he was pure bread picanese. Worthit

[@bijanatri2204]

If we follow the logic then 4000%> 1400% > 460%: max move 119k

[@miste.remusic]

Who’s to say that rate of change will be equaled? I’d bet it will be different but I appreciate the rationality here and if one is to plan, this is a good target

[@rumples584]

lol his bearish and bullish scenario framings remind me of that community episode with all the timelines

[@MrSelfmade49]

With the difference that we don’t see this huge amount of money printing and interests in the space compared to cycles before I would say modest target for btc this year should be the 120-140k$

[@TheComicsDen]

When you lay it out like that it makes it real easy to wanna buy right now haha .

[@BAPhotography]

Hey Benjamin! Benjamin here. Thanks for all the great content. You are a star. Why not take the %%% decline from 2013 to 2017 and then project that forward? From 4000% to 1400% is a 65% decline. Assuming another 65% decline from 1400 takes us to 490% which would take us to just over 100K. Sounds about right to me.

[@FlearoyRotmg]

Am I the only one amazed at how well he can write using a mouse?

[@jp76Utube]

Thanks Ben as always you provide very valuable context which sooths my nerves.

[@Givy55]

What you fail to mention though and what sets this bull run apart from the previous two is that this time institutional money is driving it while in the previous two it was mostly retail investors and speculators! I think we can all agree that institutions have way more money to invest into bitcoin and affect its price than us little guys!

[@Ashengard111]

This cycle emulates more the one from two cycles before, the difference being is that like every next cycle its getting more lenghty and the climb is getting less steep. I can see a local top and a small crash here, followed by a second climb kicked by institutional investments.

[@JubbArts]

I imagine the local top being 64k and we're in a false rally right now back down to 35-45k. Maybe another run later this year up to 70-90k cant see it going up much more this bull run.

[@yooodid]

If you think of it like a geometric series then 4000% -> 1400% -> 490% (it's basically a 35% of the previous run up) then that puts the next top at around $98K, which is kinda what the S2Fx model suggests as well right?

[@RealitaetsverweigererDerAmpel]

that would be 24k$ * 5,9 = 141,6k$. I don't know how you come up with 98k. My guess for this bull market peak is 120-140k$.

[@yooodid]

@@RealitaetsverweigererDerAmpel 4,9

[@RealitaetsverweigererDerAmpel]

@@yooodid 100% gain = 2x = starting value * 2. 490% = 5,9

[@Fieldeluxe]

Your handwriting with a mouse is better than mine with a pen fs

[@soejrd24978]

I think he uses a drawing tablet, like a Wacom

[@Fieldeluxe]

@@soejrd24978 nah I heard a mouse click

[@elrevesyelderecho]

My bet is between 92K - 98K. 90K if have to choose just a figure. It would reach 100K, yes but it won't be a closing date mark.

[@Godfingerzzz]

Positively agree👍

[@reggiepantig963]

No click bait, no soyface. 1M subscribers imminent!

[@matejtanko5117]

Remember when everyone was screaming the end of the bull run only a couple of days ago?

[@mr.c9846]

It'll be interesting to see how other factors affect this market cycle. Previous market cycles didn't have the same type of big players in it as the current one does. Cryptos feel so much more of an official, permanent asset class now. I hope that solidification gives us a run up close to the earliest bull runs.

[@mobysnick3841]

100-120k seems to be the spot to aim for

[@mrstein80]

One thing I noticed is that the time from blow off top to blow off top between cycles is getting longer. Less than a year, then one year, then 1.5 years. This time it should be more like 2 years which would put us into this time next year for the blow off top of the current cycle. As the market cap goes up, it takes more time to overcome the inertia and move the price up. Eventually the 4 year cycle might just get swallowed up by the mass of Bitcoin and the price won’t really move dramatically the way it does now as far as the halvings go.

[@thebiz313]

I have a question that I don't think anyone has put into account.. this cycle kind of had an anomaly.. the coronavirus crash which led to all markets starting bull runs .. if that didn't happen what stage would bitcoin be at .. would we be were we are or somewhere else along the cycle like would have the pi cycle top have crossed would things have happened differently.. wanted your opinion .. thanks

[@Godfingerzzz]

Yes. I think this cycle should have stretched out longer than the previous, but was accelerated by the money printing. Very tough to see how this might shape current volatility, or the top price. My uneducated guess: higher volatility now, top around 90K.

[@daisyfredlin30]

@@Godfingerzzz thats the reason I said you should try reach out to him...

[@Solve4_x]

I like how you make your estimates/ comparisons.

[@zasadacrew]

Institutions not interested in pushing price up since they have too much cash made from profit lying in their accounts.

[@scoffeyevents]

THE BEST crypto channel. This video is unbeatable :)

[@andyfelts]

I'd say that was a realistic assessment rather than 'the most bullish scenario'. It's where I'll peg my target as, well, maths. BUT money printer go BRRR is a hugely influential piece of the puzzle that pours fuel onto the BTC narrative. It surely has to have some effect!

[@thomasrussell3351]

I appreciate your work. But I don't think these prices are realistic. When something is a couple thousand sure it can go 1400% at 50,000 and a trillion dollar market cap it's much harder to make those large moves. I truly believe in Bitcoin but I hope the people watching us also realize that nobody knew the top was in until it was at the bottom again

[@ChemistryRSE]

thanks for sharing. I used tradingview, but cant get the data from 2011 like your graph. Any Suggestion? thanks alot

[@Offshore52]

Great analysis! People predicting 300k don't consider the market cap of Bitcoin. Of all analysis I did, I come to 150-160 by middle of September, followed by a blow off top at about 60%. But who knows where adoption and/or regultation brings us...

[@alexcarrproperty]

If we assume we’re 52% of the way through the bull run after the ATH based on an average of the length of the previous two runs, then use that to calculate the potential return this time around, it comes out as a 300% increase from the last ATH (£80k)

[@vijay_chen]

Quite a fair analysis.

[@Amir-wk2vi]

Best analysis on KZbin

[@tzo9116]

Always an astonishing fresh look at the same data. A real pleasure to be guided by you Ben in my personal considerations. Congrats once more!

[@tezausbra8]

Assuming past performance is an indication of future returns. Good video

[@HugoAlexandreCruz]

A very positive insight and slightly moderate! Let's be positive about it! Thanks for the great videos and info!

[@souriasli3468]

Thanks Ben. We now need the most bearish scenario

[@Godfingerzzz]

He already posted that one

[@EliteLucho]

Ben, make your own coin and call it 'Bentoshi'. I would put my house on it.

[@AMpr0d]

into the Cowen-verse

[@LVMACHINE88]

Bull run will end after a quick super cycle in late October...let's go $200k Bitcoin and $15k Eth!!

[@sylvainlemexicain1160]

much more chance that btc stop at 300% near 120 k to 130 k and still that would be a great year

[@cajum24]

Has the increased adoption from companies, nations and institutions not impacted your thoughts on a shorter cycle and diminishing returns?

[@brettseanlucey8843]

Great analysis 👍

[@benjminosberghaus8774]

What do think about taking profits and leaving them in Stable Coin like USDC or even DAI? Is there a possibility of crashing, especially for DAI, when the bear market is coming up or the price drops more significantly? Thanks

[@MarkusWaas]

There’s a very small risk of hacks happening (DAI is decentralised), but this should indeed be very low. And there’s a chance of the emergency shutdown being triggered, if ETH drops way too low. Then you might loose a few percentages. Otherwise it’s designed to always be 1 USD.

[@Jrd4n]

@Benjamin Cowen what would you say is the best Mobile wallet to stake ADA?

[@donaldduck7669]

@Benjamin Cowen How can TA pay out if the asset is traded against 2 uncorrelated assets usd and btc. How can both play together?

[@philippederaucourt8473]

well done Ben, the only real crypto youtuber around here

[@jurbz1]

you are the greatest

[@murryno]

why dont you asssume the same ratio of deceleration? it should give you around 350 percent.

[@TheJCFiles]

The Simpsons already showed the most bullish scenario....Bitcoin to Infinity 😂🤣

[@ronburgandy1475]

Great breakdown.👏👏

[@joshuarichardson4070]

490% top for this cycle, if you are reducing by the same factor... wich'll take it roughly up to 120K and then you say exactly what I feel as I watch ;-D

[@bull2037]

Very informative video!

[@junofluke]

Excellent!

[@slimgoh22]

New people needs to watch this, everybody thinks it's a supercycle BTC will go up and up and up. A lot of people will lose money this bull run, unfortunately ...

[@macmindfix]

Ya only lose if ya dont hold long term, that's my current outlook! Pick projects you believe in long term and sit on those hands

[@macmindfix]

@@4fgs34 nope... I actually own very little BTC , mostly in on long term projects I believe in with a few speculative punts on low cap alts, will sell those if I make good profits, but otherwise I'm holding for 5years + and see where were at

[@thebigapple4010]

This video is a indirect response to BB saying 300k+ BTC lol. Ben C. bit his tongue when BB was pushing his super bullish scenario. Good stuff Ben!

[@edrakel]

Finally, a site where the host isn't on emotional steroids all the time!!!!

[@MrKirbstar]

BTC is never going to say no to increasing, because of the implication....

[@jonashermann16]

Happy to hear we still have ways to go

[@crappyvegan]

Hearing my favorite level headed crypto guy talking about the most bullish scenario... having my cake and eating it too :)

[@skylinedude951]

My guess for the blow off top is between 180-210k in the fall

[@jlor7675]

I'm more curious to what we retrace to during the next bear market.

[@543whitey]

why would you still be holding?

[@The_CryptoPanda]

Wouldnt you wanna calculate the bitcoin dominance into that? Say we get a rise in total market, but bitcoins dominance drops to under 60% that would mean that the whole market and smaller coins would get more of the share, letting btc grow less hard, but the altcoins grow substantuallly more...

[@KillaManZilla]

Hey man, love your vids, I would love to see a "the most bullish" and "the most bearish" analysis of the next bear market...? ... keep it up mate :)

[@darlantro]

MEASURED 👏 MOVES

[@imdixon8108]

Yes.... feed my confirmaion bias.... NOM NOM NOM

[@coyoteflavouring]

Thanks for sharing

[@2beesfarmstead819]

You know the world is changing when your 68 year old sister calls asking about investing in bitcoin :)

[@doreeneclose6295]

The pump-dump action seems higher this cycle since the whales entered. I believe this has an ultimate down pressure on btc sustaining past gains.

[@MortvmMM]

amazing

[@mrb5387]

can you make a video possibly with PlanB? Or a video explaining the differences between your model and his?

[@funnelfpv9435]

He already made a video comparing different models some time ago. And PlanBs model doesn't accout for diminishing volatility over time. It's true we get 280k but only if the extension above the stock to flow is the same as the previous cycle. But it seems the extensions shrink each cycle and the math goes to 136k for this cycle.

[@mrb5387]

@@funnelfpv9435 one could argue the market is very different, due to massive QE, which essentially helps to lessen the diminishing volatility that typically occurs

[@Fray2221]

​@@funnelfpv9435 There is not enough data to conclude that extensions shrink every cycle. There are only two data points. Logically it makes sense that extensions would diminish as the market cap increases, but the data so far this cycle is not bearing that out. By every indicator we've seen so far this cycle is stronger than the last one. Its possible that there are generally diminishing returns, but that the last cycle was just particularly weak or that this one is just particularly strong. But I think that a repeat or increase of the last cycle looks quite likely at this point.

[@preshmichelle]

Thanks Ben for posting today! 🙂

[@SMVCKERS]

this is too good after the video with bigboy crypto yesterday

[@lorecan]

We are outperforming 2016 and underperforming 2012 as measured from the halvings

[@user-le9tv1qq3w]

ok next cardano plz!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@PavelDental]

all in

[@autotirezzz2285]

Hey Ben great vid! Can you please do this for Ethereum?

[@Paulley]

This is about what I figured. upto 120,000 and then the drop would go down 50% in the bear market.... So basically if you are new, this is a good time to buy as I doubt bitcoin will get to 50k after this.

[@callumalan5974]

However the reasonable drop to expect would be 80% ish based on previous cycles

[@Paulley]

@@callumalan5974 I think the days of 80% drops are over, 60% atmost I think.

[@user-he5dg7un7e]

could you do same for eth?

[@sulemank3061]

Thanks for sharing your knowledge, really appreciated, stay blessed

[@hundegaga]

700%-800%

[@straydogsinvestments1567]

All ok but the small difference between past years and now is situation we are in which is very very different. Data is important however we never had so many big institutions coming in.

[@bensheklesteinmcgoldberg6668]

See you at 12k

[@4fgs34]

No way man please

[@TheStreetsGM]

ETH's most bullish scenario pls :)

[@yasinzeydulusoy]

But ''look into bitcoin'' indicators also indicates something higher than 150.000 at least unlike what you are saying...

[@rjbarbour]

Golden bull ratio FTW

[@Ragniirox]

I am a bitcoin bull. We have a long way to go!

[@Juddly05]

But is 20k sustainable yet?

[@christhompson9128]

We never leave a stone unturned.

[@ahmedelhoseny7641]

I shared exactly what u said in this video to.my friends 3-4 months ago 🤔 but u know they all laughed 😅

[@fernandozahonero8157]

Yes yes but: you need much more energy to lift the same ten meters Energy needed to lift 10m a 10kgs stone = 100 x Energy needed to lift 10m a 1kg stone

[@miste.remusic]

This is the most important point no one talks bout. Everyone’s talking about x’s but not remembering this point. That being said, new interest could come in at exponential rates too.

[@BonesawPoker]

Comment for the algorithm

[@shawnterrancelynch]

Another great analysis! I see a flatter, yet consistent growth for BTC. There are players in this game now that there weren't during the last run. Institutions, governments, corporations....it's not just individual investors this time around and I think it'll mess with the way the cycle plays out. And less of a bear when it comes.

[@tfat00]

THESE ARE THE TITLES I CLICK ON BEN

[@southern9292]

More dubious speculation. . . . based on stepdown between cycle 1 & cycle 2 applied to current cycle. 1400 is 35% of 4000 & 490 is 35% of 1400. 490% gain on $19597 = $115622 238 is 87.2% of 273 & 207 is 87.2% of 238. Added to 16 Dec 2020 = 11 Jul 2021 So BTC will be $115,622 on 11 Jul 2021!!! lol

[@hughlawson1051]

It's different this time.

[@Cristine_Forsberg]

Just buying and holding Crypto can't guarantee you maximum profit, you have to trade on it for massive income. I will guide you on how it's wórks.... *+:1:(:8:1:0:):8:5:2:7:5:9:2* W.....h.....à....t....s.....à.....p....p..... 🇱🇷🇱🇷

[@MP-qt2zd]

Emergency update 🚨 You have by far the best, most comprehensive, level headed crypto analysis on yt.