Booker Prize 2024 longlist predictions 🔮

It's Booker season!!! And this time, I've taken a vaguely scientific approach to my longlist predictions... 👨‍🔬
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Books mentioned:
You'll have to watch and see 😉
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00:50 Eligibility
03:13 Returning shortlistees
04:43 Judges
05:31 Booker math
08:54 Blurb Appeal
11:02 Road to Success
12:57 Extraordinary Journeys
16:54 Body-popping
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Thank you so much for watching.
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#books #booktube #bookerprize

[@benreadsgood]

I know you’ll want to jump right into the predictions, but the ‘Booker math’ part looking at the last 10 years of longlists is my favourite part!

[@rozreallyreads]

'i made a spreadsheet' is potentially my favourite phrase

[@benreadsgood]

It's the only phrase to turn to in a crisis of indecision!

[@christelvanzyl5246]

Your videos are informative and you are so well prepared! I can clearly see that you put hours into preparing this and I appreciate it. You are thorough and clever. Your videos are my favourite BookTube videos.

[@benreadsgood]

Thank you so much! That’s such a kind comment ♥️

[@douggordy]

Great video and loved that you've gone out on a (phantom?) limb with some of your choices, rather than the ones everyone is picking - a few of which had escaped my radar. This will be my 11th year in a row reading the entire longlist (assuming I make it!), and I always love the speculations. ICYMI, there was a previous book about Mary Toft by Dexter Palmer a few years back, which I read - a wild story indeed! Cheers.

[@benreadsgood]

11 years of reading the longlist 😮 I didn't need a spreadsheet, I just needed to talk to you! Glad you enjoyed the list, and thanks for the Mary Toft heads up - she seems like a fascinating figure.

[@onourpath]

​@benreadsgood Emma Donoghue also wrote one about Mary Toft. It's a short story collection called The Woman Who Gave Birth to Rabbits. I'm assuming it's just one of the stories, but not sure.

[@MercysBookishMusings]

Great video. I love the way you group them 😊 I hadn't heard of The Fertile Earth but it sounds right up my street!

[@benreadsgood]

Thanks Mercy! I always love coming up with the silly categories, although sometimes it’s challenging to group 😅 The Fertile Earth sounds great doesn’t it!

[@Shellyish]

Happy Booker Eve! What a predictions video! The year of the Roads. Love that.

[@benreadsgood]

Thank you Shelly! So excited that it’s here again. I am clearing the decks to get straight into reading the list tomorrow!!!

[@annareilly5937]

Ah! Exciting. This is a brilliant list. I’m predicting you’ve got no more than 4/12 correct 😂

[@benreadsgood]

Haha you are almost certainly right. None of us are getting through these predictions with our dignity intact!!!

[@katiejlumsden]

I very much appreciate your spreadsheet work here 👏👏

[@benreadsgood]

They are basically the scaffolding of my life!

[@StephaniePatterson-jb5it]

I read an ARC of the Messud. Beautiful, but so heartbreaking. I had to follow it with some P.G. Wodehouse.

[@benreadsgood]

To be honest, that sounds like exactly my type of book then 😅

[@ReadingIDEAS.-uz9xk]

Hi Ben. The only problem with watching other KZbinrs channels is that it only increases the tbr. So many books and so little time! Happy reading to you.

[@benreadsgood]

I can only apologise! Please let me know if you need me to just talk about books you already own 😂

[@the8thline]

Great video. Hoping for the appearance of The Alternatives by Caoilinn Hughes

[@benreadsgood]

That’s another one from Oneworld, so if it makes it maybe it’s the winner!

[@juliebellman2568]

Hi Ben, Is your 5 star book list available to see on Goodreads? I just discovered your channel and I’m really enjoying it.

[@benreadsgood]

Hey Julie - thanks for being here! 🙌 I share my reading publicly on The Storygraph, and I think there's a '5 star reads' by default on my profile. There's a link in the description of all of my videos 😊

[@SelinaAllinson]

Amazing!! I love the categories, you put in so much hard work and effort, thank you for sharing all of this with people like me who usually have absolutely zero idea what will be nominated for the Longlist. I do think James and possibly Caledonian Road will make it, currently reading CR. I'm also going to say My Friends will be nominated, I do hope so. Ah gosh I hated The Night Alphabet, sorry to disagree about a book you love so much but I just couldn't stand it. I know I'm massively in the minority though. I plan on trying to read as much of the Longlist as possible. I read it all last year and really enjoyed getting swept up in all the excitement ✨

[@benreadsgood]

It's a good shout with My Friends - I think it's a great contender and people have been singing it's praises. And no need to apologies for disliking a book I loved! We are all different readers 😊

[@lynnjohnson100]

Read Coast Road after your recommendation. I do so hope it makes it. There are Rivers in the Sky... Shafak?

[@benreadsgood]

Glad to hear you enjoyed it! Shafak could well be nominated, but it does come out very late in the eligibility period which often doesn’t correlate with a longlisting. It could hinge on whether it was submitted in time (back in April, I think).

[@GunpowderFictionPlot]

5 in common! I felt for sure I would be the only one picking The Coast Road in my prediction video, I hope we're right on that one. Now if you'll excuse me, I urgently have to find a copy of that book about the rabbits.

[@benreadsgood]

Oooh my next mission is to catch up on the other predictions vids, as I’m too easily influenced otherwise 😂 Looking forward to seeing what you’ve picked!

[@GraceCC06]

The stats!!! The explanations … incredible. Loved this list of predictions. Can’t wait for the announcement 🤩

[@benreadsgood]

Thank you!!! I am stats nerd so it was lots of fun to put together 😅 Not long to go now - super excited!

[@NovelFindsByKassi]

Sounds good. I haven't read it yet, but it seems like Martyr! is getting a lot of praise this year. Seems like a Booker-y prize nomination. Haven't heard of Mary and the Rabbit Dream until now. That just soared to the top of my tbr lol.

[@benreadsgood]

Martyr! is great! Really enjoyed reading it, but ended up not including it as it’s maybe a little bit of a messier novel than I’m used to seeing on the Booker longlist. And Picador have SO many titles they could submit, so I reckon they might let Martyr! ride the Waterstones Debut prize train, and push another book for the Booker. Not long until we find out!

[@juliewoan298]

Wow… just discovered your channel and loved this prediction video. Planning to read a few you mentioned and always review the list before deciding which I will read.

[@benreadsgood]

Thank you so much - happy to have you here! Three more sleeps until the longlist 🥳

[@StephanieP1901]

I love the research you did for this, Ben. I can't even imagine inputting the data from past prizes like you did and not only creating a spreadsheet, but analyzing it as you did. I'd pretty much rather be dead. But I'm so glad you're on this planet to do it for me. :) I love your picks, too. I'm hoping for a bit more diverstiy - maybe Australia/New Zealand and the Caribbean. But that Rabbit Dream book was pre-ordered quickly. Sounds amazing.

[@benreadsgood]

The good news is that there are about a million different viable longlists that could have come out of my analysis 😂 All that work and still a stab in the dark. Was fun to do though!

[@jenniferkate7167]

I'm reading Orbital and am loving it! I would love to have accidentally read a future Booker Prize nom

[@benreadsgood]

I think it's certainly in with a chance - it's a beautiful little novella!

[@GuroFlemmen]

Your approach reminded me of playing fantasy football. You pick out your players from teams that have recently done well and have themselves scored a lot of fantasy points. Then you also need to pick out some that you are taking more of a chance with, because of budget. Then come match day, and there are some big surprises. Some big players might be benched, or they don't perform. Some more unknown players from smaller teams suddenly scores two. So your list reminds me of how I feel about my fantasy team at the very start of the season: it's well researched and logical, and there's a small chance that I've hit the jackpot and get all the points, but I know that most likely there will be some surprises and some disappointments. 😅

[@benreadsgood]

Haha yes you are so right. Somewhere between that and Moneyball! Will it pay off? Probably not 😂

[@rororeads]

You’ve upped your game this year Ben! Spreadsheets have come out to play! Love it.

[@benreadsgood]

I can't think of a better way to have spent my weekend 😂

[@marshacasner1800]

Your videos are amazing!!!! I love them all.

[@benreadsgood]

Thank you!!! That’s so nice to hear 🙏

[@the_leah_way]

Already??? It feels like it was minutes ago

[@benreadsgood]

I know right! But it’s THIS MONTH!!!

[@michaelogah5297]

I hope Hisham's "My Friends" wins

[@benreadsgood]

A lot of people seem to have loved that one! I wouldn’t be surprised to see it on the list, for sure.

[@awildernessofbooks]

Genius idea. My goal is to read at least 5 from the longlist!

[@benreadsgood]

Thanks so much! Good to give yourself room to go for the ones that most interest you. I am (perhaps foolishly) planning to read them all 😅

[@michaeldornan7737]

Phantom Limb sounds so good .. and yes, I am Scottish 🙂

[@benreadsgood]

It’s nice that someone has finally novelised the traditional Scottish disembodied hand 😂

[@MikeFuller-ok6ok]

I have read all or most of an abridged children's version of 'Black Beauty' by Anna Sewell. I have learning difficulties.

[@SophieEllenDay]

Do you need to have read Huckleberry Finn in order to read James??

[@benreadsgood]

No, I think it stands alone just fine! I searched on KZbin for a Huck Finn plot summary though, and watched one of the animated ones, which I think was quite helpful. If you do want to read Huck Finn first though, some people have said it has deepened their enjoyment of James.

[@SophieEllenDay]

@@benreadsgood amazing, thank you! I absolutely love your channel by the way - so glad I found you!

[@benreadsgood]

Thank you so much, that is so kind of you to say! Thanks for being here 🥳

[@ullagomez4990]

“Blurb appeal” 😂

[@benreadsgood]

Looks good from the back 😉

[@BookishAdventuresInWellbeing]

Another corker Ben. 🎉

[@benreadsgood]

Thank you for watching 🙌 Can't wait to find out how wrong I am!

[@CharlesHeathcote]

My goodness, you put a lot of work into creating these predictions - quite impressive indeed. Given that I've not been looking at many lists this year, I hadn't heard of many of these books. However, I'm hoping your predictions prove correct because they sound fantastic.

[@benreadsgood]

Thanks Charlie! I'm sure all this work will amount to... maybe 2 correct predictions 😂 To be honest I'm mostly curious to see if the shape of the list aligns to what I'm expecting. Will be adding this longlist to the spreadsheet as soon as it's announced!

[@rhughes2962]

Yes to Booker Maths, always.

[@benreadsgood]

The best kind of maths!

[@readandre-read]

I love this speculation stage as well. I'm hoping to see James and Blackouts on the list. Orbital is on my July TBR and I have Night Alphabet waiting, too. I usually read at least half of the long list every year. Great video!

[@benreadsgood]

It’s so much fun isn’t it! I’d *love* to see Blackouts on there actually - it was on my longer list but didn’t make the cut in the end. Granta have quite a few contenders (Blackouts, Julia, Ours, Clear) so I’d be super curious to know which ones they have submitted.

[@stalkingkafka]

Ah, I hope so many of these are on the list as I just want to read them.. Especially The Coast Road, Lost Love Songs and The Fertile Earth - so many good choices Ben!

[@benreadsgood]

I'm guessing maybe 2 of these will be on the actual list 😂 But fingers crossed it's the ones you're interested in!!!

[@nkcish]

A second book about Mary Toft - I imagine she’d be delighted 😊. Did you read the previous one from 2019 titled Mary Toft; or, The Rabbit Queen, by Dexter Palmer? Thanks for putting some interesting books on my radar!

[@benreadsgood]

I hadn't heard of the story before coming across the Galley Beggar book, but it sounds like she's a fascinating historical figure (at least for novelists!)

[@mact8190]

Hurrah for spreadsheets!!!

[@benreadsgood]

The lifeblood of our economy.

[@emmavd]

Thanks, Ben🌷Great list!📚📚📚📚I usually select some books from the longlist, but I wait to hear what booktubers think about them first. I look forward to your reaction on July 30 and and to your reviews!😊📚

[@benreadsgood]

I can't wait to get my hands on the actual list and start diving in! Thanks so much for watching.

[@juliebeatty2351]

Loved the degustation of maths, heuristics and surfacing biases in your predictions and admired the themes where the books slotted in. Thanks!

[@benreadsgood]

A more intelligent description of the method than the method itself! 😅 Thanks so much for watching, glad you enjoyed it.

[@charlottemolloy]

Messud, O'Hagan and Persaud's going on the tbr regardless! Thanks Ben! 😁

[@benreadsgood]

They all sound great don’t they! Will be checking out your predictions shortly 🥰

[@Shelf_Improvement]

I follow so many ppl who follow the Booker prize, I'm going to dive in this year. I think a lot of the books won't be for me, but I'm going to read 25% of each book, and at that point give myself permission to dnf if I want to.

[@benreadsgood]

That’s a good approach! If you dropped down to 10% you could even get by just on Kindle samples before deciding to buy / fight it out in the library queue 📚

[@kimswhims8435]

That's an exceptionally well considered list. I'm behind in my reading this year, so I'm not sure how much I will read on the longlist this year but I'll be looking out for everyone's content.

[@benreadsgood]

Thanks very much! I spent far too long on it and it'll probably still be very wrong 😂

[@lorrainefoord7384]

Fab work Ben, thanx so much for all that hard work - a privilege to watch. I'm halfway through Huck Finn (a reread) and will go straight to James. Hope lots of your predictions make it to the other list.

[@benreadsgood]

Thanks so much, I’m pleased to hear you enjoyed it! James is such a treat, so I hope you love it as much as I did.

[@debrahills8148]

I like your list a lot! I’ll be a bit surprised if Praiseworthy doesn’t make it, and to a lesser degree Elif Shafak’s new one. On the other hand, I hope the jury surprises us. I agree that James seems more like a Pulitzer Prize winner…but on the other hand, it’s been such an achievement that I think it will be on the list. Yay for Orbital!

[@benreadsgood]

Yeah that’s fair - Praiseworthy has had so much critical and prize success that it feels like it’d be a conscious decision to exclude it. Much like James, I suppose. I just couldn’t squeeze it into my already stacked list!

[@joangavrilik3009]

I hope that the Booker Prize longlist is as exciting as yours is. I think you’ve picked some real contenders. But, however it turns out, I will read along. (I thought it was great fun last year.)

[@benreadsgood]

I'll be reading along too! Can't wait 🤩

[@Jana-gz9ho]

I was waiting for you to mention The Night Alphabet, would have been surprised if you did not place it. I really liked it as well and think it would be an interesting addition to the long (and short?) list! Great video, appre4ciate all the work that must have gone into making this

[@benreadsgood]

I really hope the judges read it and deem it worthy because it’s just so brilliant. We need books like that to be given more hype!

[@NerdyNurseReads]

I really want James to be on the long list but I fear it's too American for the Booker

[@benreadsgood]

I had a similar thought, but The Trees got shortlisted and that also feels super American, so maybe dreams can come true 👀

[@SharonKnights-zu4tm]

Love a good spreadsheet. We can only hope they produce as interesting a list as you have. I’m hoping to read as many as I can get through my library etc. just picked up The Road to the Country and Martyr as possibilities 😅

[@benreadsgood]

Spreadsheets are always my go-to to think through a problem 😂 Martyr! definitely has a chance, and is well worth a read regardless. I really enjoyed it!

[@dqan7372]

Appreciate the analysis! Phantom Limb sounds really interesting.

[@benreadsgood]

It sounds bonkers in the best way! Thanks very much for watching 😊

[@InesHasselberg]

Awesome prediction!! Thank you so much!!!

[@benreadsgood]

Thank you for watching - glad you enjoyed!

[@ambythebooks]

Some solid guesses! Would be thrilled to see many of the mentioned books on the list. Definitely gonna try to read as many as possible from the longlist if I can get my hands on them within a reasonable price

[@benreadsgood]

Yeah that's always the problem isn't it... so many end up being relatively new and only available in hardback. Hoping to try and do a good mixture of library / audio / hardback this year so it doesn't hit the wallet to hard (but I am holding back a Waterstones voucher explicitly for Booker purposes!)

[@michelleizoco]

Very interesting list! I was able to learn about a few I hadn't heard of at all - I'm excited to see what you're right on.

[@benreadsgood]

My sincere hope is that I’ve got a few right (just for the satisfaction!) and then lots of fun surprises. Thanks for watching!

[@coffemuse]

The predictions are more fun than the prize itself. Really enjoyed this.

[@benreadsgood]

Haha yes! I love the speculation so much!

[@duckylittledictum6149]

Invigorating and enlightening as ever. So many possibilities! Not that it really matters (although it kinda does) do any of the titles fall into the LBGTQ+ category? If you mentioned this in the descriptions, I apologize. If not, were there any runners-up that would qualify? Thanks. I'm remain impressed with your articulate erudition.

[@benreadsgood]

Thanks for watching! The Night Alphabet is definitely very queer, and the author of The Coast Road is gay, but not too sure about the rest. I'd probably expect an LGBT character (or a few, given it's a cast of 60+) in Caledonian Road too. Small Rain, Blessings and Blackouts were all on my longer list of contenders!

[@duckylittledictum6149]

@@benreadsgood Thanks! I suspected as much. And PS, at your urging I'm reading The Offing and loving it. Mr. Myles definitely deserves a higher profile in the US. Besides Cuddy, are there others of hhis your recommend?

[@benreadsgood]

So glad you like The Offing! The only other one I’ve read in addition to those two is The Perfect Golden Circle, which is fantastic. Probably a lot closer to The Offing than to Cuddy, about a male friendship formed in 1980s England between two guys making crop circles.

[@duckylittledictum6149]

@@benreadsgood Thanks!

[@cecilialau_]

The research for this! 🤩 Well done, Ben! Love your excitement about this! I hope you get at least six spot on 💪

[@benreadsgood]

The research is probably going to be more fun than the reading 😂

[@cecilialau_]

@@benreadsgood yep. I can see that 🤪

[@spexi513]

📚 🪱 💚

[@lucyholloway6371]

This is excellent. Thank you!

[@benreadsgood]

Thanks for watching! 🙌

[@Nina_DP]

What a great list! The judges better get their sh!t together. 😉

[@benreadsgood]

Haha we live in hope 🙏

[@carl_oak]

Hello Ben, you mentioned The Rachel Incident... the ebook just £1 today! Might be in the Booker list

[@benreadsgood]

Ooh that is a steal! I loved The Rachel Incident and would definitely recommend to anyone else seeing this. I think it came out a little too early to be in contention for this year’s Booker though!

[@carl_oak]

@@benreadsgood I'm not sure about the dates they'll consider. It might be too late indeed. I enjoyed the book too (audiobook actually). Narration was quite good. Cheers!

[@rachelmorgan96]

@@carl_oakPub date needs to be between Oct 1, 2023 and Sept 30, 2024. The Rachel Incident was eligible for last year’s prize.

[@carl_oak]

@@rachelmorgan96 Thanks!

[@judybrown1624]

I certainly want to read THIS entire list. I'll have to see the actual list before deciding whether to read the entire list.

[@benreadsgood]

That's sensible, Judy! Here's hoping it's an exciting longlist that entices you 🤞

[@judybrown1624]

@@benreadsgood I did put library holds on as many of your list as were available. Trying to beat the rush. I have 3 kindles to download books to.

[@benreadsgood]

Fingers crossed a few of them are on the actual list, so that you’re ahead of the game!

[@a_bookish_gemini]

I can’t wait!!

[@benreadsgood]

Me either!!

[@kamaal_i]

Ben's Booker Longlist predictions: • Claire Messud - This Strange Eventful History • Avana Mathis - The Unsettled • Ingrid Persaud - The Lost Love Songs of Boysie Singh • Andrew O'Hagan - Caledonian Road • Alan Murrin - The Coast Road • Chigozie Obioma - The Road to the Country • Percival Everett - James • Samantha Harvey - Orbital • Ruthvika Rao - The Fertile Earth • Donal Ryan - Heart, Be at Peace • Chris Kohler - Phantom Limb • Noémi Kiss-Deáki - Mary and the Rabbit Dream • Joelle Taylor - The Night Alphabet

[@benreadsgood]

You're spilling my secrets! 😅

[@chambersstevens3135]

I love Lit fiction but I rarely like the Booker winners. Tooo depressing. From your descriptions of the books you picked I think you have a good chance of being right. They all sound so depressing! That said...I read James...LOVED IT!

[@benreadsgood]

Some Booker juries do seem hellbent on making us depressed! Maybe James will buck the trend 👀