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In this video I walk you through how to generate and evaluate 10 different regular season score forecasting models for the 2012 NBA Champion Miami Heat. We examine graphs of the Naive Method, Simple Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, and Exponential Moving Average forecasts and then calculate three forecast errors for all four models. Within each model, we will analyze different time periods and weightings to select a scoring model containing the least amount of forecast error. We will also discuss interpretations and limitations inherent in this data and methodology.
My playlist table of contents, Video Companion Guide PDF documents, and file downloads can be found on my website: www.bcfoltz.com