BREAKING: Elon Musk "FSD’s About to 10X!!!"

Elon says Tesla FSD is about to get a WHOLE lot better, it's coming to Cybertruck soon, and this means Optimus will improve too! What a series of x posts!
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[@flattire707]

12.3.6 is great in my Model 3LR. It has passed the "wife test." Can't wait for 12.4 and beyond. Older drivers will become very reliant on FSD in the future.

[@slowercuber7767]

The day FSD can legally and safely drive me across the USA on the highway while I nap, is the day I'll be ready to (te)slap an $8K USD charge onto my credit card.

[@ffuck_u]

There’s the thing called airplane

[@nguyep4]

It may not be $8k by then

[@slowercuber7767]

@@nguyep4 too true. Don’t know how high I’d go, but I know I’d go for it at eight. I wouldn’t feel right making the purchase unilaterally were it more. Might buy it before it reaches full autonomy were it less.

[@sandybayes]

@@nguyep4 maybe double or triple that.

[@jkimo1178]

Get James Douma on for a discussion.

[@vermontsownboy6957]

My area (Northern New England) require daily drives on incredibly challenging dirt mountain back roads. Think gravel, steep, loose and changing gravel shoulders, blind corners, short horizon lines, potholes potholes potholes, etc. FSD has made incredible progress in the past 45 days, going from (v12.3.4) literally 25-30 interventions in a 10 mile drive to town (yes, really), to maybe 1-2 interventions in the same drive (v12.3.6). Known FSD failure points still exist, but the progress is obvious.

[@carjic]

On v12.3.6 I have been using it every drive since I got it. Only problems until yesterday were getting in the wrong lane. In other words if one lane turns into a turn only lane and you need to go straight it will pick the wrong lane 60% of the time so I just turn it off. But yesterday every time I had a left turn it either got in the wrong land on the turn. One time on a busy intersection and a left turn it just stopped and blocked traffic so I had to take over. It also was in the right lane and someone was turning right but I was going straight and it came very close to hitting the car before I hit the brake. I am a hugh fan of FSD and it has been workiing great but yesterday was going a few steps back. This is San Antonio Texas by the way.

[@Mpr47276]

Yep lane selection and lane hesitation has been a frustrating v12.3.6 failure point for me too.

[@Cybertruck_69]

Tesla should add a “Bug Log” button so if things that aren’t working perfectly with the os, or app, the issue can be reported like with a FSD intervention. Things like map errors or navigation issues and suggestions for specific locations etc.

[@michaellatta]

I have only had 5 safety interventions in the last year (6k miles). And around 4 where I tool over around emergency vehicles.

[@axeman3d]

Is it about to 10x in about a year? Maybe a year & 3 months but DEFINITELY next year? Definitely? Full self driving is DEFINITELY coming soon and it will be amazing! Soon. Definitely.

[@tedg1609]

I emperor it has to get 1,000,000 times better. At 10x per year, that’s six years -> 2030 is my guess.

[@ByronBennett]

Wow! 17,000 miles between critical interventions for Waymo is incredible. If that's the bar, and Tesla is at 300 miles, then Tesla needs a 50X improvement to catch up to Waymo. Thankfully, the improvement curve is parabolic and not straight-line, otherwise, it'd be 500 years. Hopefully, just 5 months instead, but still, 50X is a big number.

[@BigBen621]

According to FSD Tracker, FSD is now at 357 miles per critical disengagement-although what constitutes a critical DE is highly subjective, and likely different for everyone posting results on that site. Anyway, if V12.4 does achieve a 10X increase in miles to critical disengagement, the top end of the range that Musk predicts, that'll bring it to about 3,600 miles, and FSD will only need another 5X to get to where Waymo is now. With the huge increase this year both in computing power and miles driven on FSD (Supervised), this seems eminently doable; but time will tell.

[@slowercuber7767]

5:00 Around where I live in Bessemer, AL, our roads are much simpler than the one's I'm familiar with in CA (mainly around San Diego), but those same "simpler" Alabama roads are also much crapier, with shoulderless narrow roads bordered by ditches, blind hills and turns and low hanging tree branches and people leaving their garbage cans on the edge of the street, etc. It seems that optimization for CA is not optimal for rural and some suburban AL, so I don't expect V12.4 or even V12.5 to get us here in the Heart of Dixie to what you see in Athens, Atlanta or CA.

[@cherubin7th]

I don't know who is older me or Musk saying "robo taxi next year"?

[@Ezekiel903]

A road cone is enough to stop the car, he can't understand what's going on, imagine this car is Naples, Paris, with pedestrian, motorbikes, cars driving near in front of you etc. Same with his Mars dreams, humans are not made for space, we lose bone structure, fertilization is a issue etc. Mars has a gravity of 38% compared to earth. You think we will ever see it? he is a show off.

[@SirHargreeves]

Are you not watching the FSD vids? It’s clearly coming.

[@theodorehaskins3756]

@@Ezekiel903 So if not Elon, then who? If not now, then when? So what Elon and the folks at Tesla is pursuing here is level 5 autonomous driving cars, and I believe they will get there first, but let’s assume for some reason they don’t. Do you really think that someone else won’t? So at this point, I don’t see anyone ahead of Tesla, and certainly not WAYMO, operating in a very controlled Geo fenced space, and so what Elon, and the folks at Tesla is doing, is light years away from what these other so-called ride sharing companies are doing, as they have imagined a future where no one will be driving their cars, as the car will be driving you, and with that in mind, what comes to my mind is that we truly must have a car that can think like a human in terms of its decision-making processes, it can be aided by neural networks, but I think that at some point it has to have compute capability at the car level too, in order for it to truly be autonomous. Cheers 🥂

[@tiepup]

@@SirHargreeves There are good ones, but the bad ones are really bad. Attempting to drive into the side of a train because it's foggy isn't exactly perfect. Remember too that FSD has only been trained in the U.S., other countries have unique challenges that will take many more years to train on.

[@deniszorc9210]

i guess since you are not in kindergarden, you're older

[@doughuval8466]

Dude put the coolaid down.

[@randalexander]

Yep. iPhone moment as well. Remember how in a couple to few years all those Motorola RAZR and other flip phones totally disappeared? Cars scene is going to be so radically different in 3 to 5 years. People have NO IDEA.

[@sandybayes]

Glad you explained the stacking of 11 and 12. Thanks!

[@bobtag376]

Hopefully, Elon is right about 12.4 seeing a 5x to 10x improvement in miles per intervention, I have driven FSD for 18 months now in my MYLR, and I still have not driven more than 20 miles without a safety-related intervention(s) in city and country roads in the Midwest, even with the latest FSD 12.3.6 I have made 5 trips to Florida and back, 2400 miles per trip, mostly interstate driving. No complete trip on the interstate driving was without multiple interventions for safety. FSD may be better on California roads, but still too many edge cases in the Midwest they need to solve before any robo taxi is ready for the public.

[@slowercuber7767]

4:13 you had Ents (tree people) in your neighborhood!???? Cool!

[@wony69]

Exciting roadmap!

[@Mpr47276]

I’ve got two really annoying 100% regressions in v12. One is a blind, unprotected left turn that v11 could muddle through but v12 can not even attempt and actually creeps the car out into the lane of travel, then disengages. The other issue is V12 completely misses the exit off the interstate to my house. It has good nav planning and even signals for the exit, but fails to take the exit. It goes to the next exit, and comes back on the interstate from the other direction and has success from that direction. Pretty frustrating new failures.

[@johnlynch5007]

I am looking forward to hearing about the first coast to coast FSD drive. Where the car backs into a charging stall

[@BigBen621]

It'll do that right now, although the driver *will* have to take over for a few dozen feet from the entrance intoto the Supercharger site to the stall chosen to Autopark into, which is perfectly acceptable both in Level 3 and Level 4. So we only need someone with the free time and a Tesla with FSD (Supervised) to give this a try! I recently did a 1,000 mile road trip on Old Highway 66 on V12.3.6, and FSD backed into the Supercharger perfectly, each and every time I charged.

[@s.m.7018]

With my promo month of FSD I am hooked. I can “drive” from my home to a destination in another city and return without intervention. This is version 3.25.

[@jonathanbrown9002]

Waymo operates in Los Angeles now too

[@georgehopkins1708]

This is very impressive regarding major reductions in interventions. But if say when it gets to 10,000 or more intervention, what would happen in a robocab does require an intervention and who would intervene and who would resolve the intervention problem?

[@robertp2116]

With all the effort Tesla is putting into FSD, you'd assume they had already fixed phantom braking and auto wipers, which on my 2024 M3, still are an issue 🤔

[@jonathanmelhuish4530]

They're focussing on the hard stuff first.

[@billdale1]

​@@jonathanmelhuish4530phantom braking IS hard/ important. Then again, I've never had any phantom braking in my '20 M3.

[@jook360]

It's cleaning the front cams and checking the brakes. 😂

[@macrumpton]

I would be very skeptical of those Waymo numbers, because there are so many accounts of the cars getting stuck or lost. In any case, I don't think that comparing Tesla to Waymo as some kind of goal makes sense since they are not that great.

[@peterhoy2382]

... just an aside ... I spotted my first Model 3 Highland version on the road in SW Florida yesterday going the opposite direction. Excited.

[@Cybertruck_69]

John - stay at 12.3.5 as .6 has a few issues imo.

[@bluetoad2668]

Does Waymo navigate such that unprotected left turns are avoided?

[@Martinmack333]

Hey Dr Know It All, are you still super excited about the Cyberlandr like you were a while ago when it featured prominently on your channel?

[@tidusandjecht10]

One thing I don’t like is how much it hugs the right side of the road. Probably due to seeing everyone drive like that, but I’d rather not look stupid on the road. That’s the only aspect I miss from the rigid FSD a few months ago

[@vermontsownboy6957]

That was a huge issue on our VERY difficult and variable dirt roads in mountainous northern New England. Some 10 mile trips to town on bad days driving v.12.3.4 required literally 30-40 interventions, the vast majority was because unsafe speeds and FSD driving too freaking close to edge of dirt road through all the loose gravel and crap at edge....never mind soft shoulders, steep drop-offs into creeks and canyons and things that would likely total the vehicle. After literally 100's of interventions in a 3 week period, to Tesla's credit, enormous, positive, improvements. It's been mind-blowing to see.

[@tidusandjecht10]

@@vermontsownboy6957 woah you’ve been seen the progress that fast? That’s amazing forsure. But yeah right now I’m pretty annoyed with how drunk it makes me look on the roads near my house

[@techyjames1945]

All I know is their a 4 way intersection where I live that requires a critical safety disengagement 100% of the time if there is a lead car, it stops 30’ short of line waits turn and try’s 100% of the time to follow that lead car without a stop of its own. It assumes the stop with the lead car counts as a stop for it.

[@philiptrautman775]

Regarding CT, I remember hearing that the reason FSD doesn’t support it yet is primarily because rear wheel steering changes the driving dynamics. Unfortunately I don’t remember the source. It sort of makes sense that it takes time to gather data to ensure that when the algorithm takes pixels in and sends controls out it includes rear steering controls or at least that it modulates the steering control correctly to account for rear wheel effects.

[@BenefitOfTheDoubtInquiry]

Couldn't they just have an adapter that tells the vehicle it has a varying wheelbase based on speed? They'll need something like that for future licensing for other vehicles to use FSD.

[@billdale1]

​​@@BenefitOfTheDoubtInquiry there would be a simple workaround for that-- when using FSD, just lock the turn feature of the rear wheels so it doesn't have to enter that into the equation. I suspect there are other factors delsying the FSD on CTs, such as needing to adjust for larger form factor of cameras, turning diameter, height (when entering/ exiting garages and buildings, etc.

[@royh6526]

"no more implicit stack on highways" ?? I thought FSD was single stack as of FSD V12.0 now that will happen in 12.4?

[@edhill8568]

No. The highway is still running the V11 stack. V12.5 will replace highway stack. Should see some significant improvement. You can actually tell when FSD switches from city/streets to highway when you have the "auto max speed" setting enabled.

[@jasonvespa7452]

For a moment there I thought you'd come across some Ents in your neighbourhood 😊

[@Pluckee13]

With 12.5 going single stack does this affect autopilot? Will it use that data?

[@MilesCone]

Most times when I am in a parking lot sitting in the parking stall, I initiate navigation to wherever and the car speed is set to 25 and I have to scramble to dial down the speed and sometimes it’s hard because the steering wheel is moving .. most of my interventions are coming from … I wish it would default at 10mph

[@lamsmiley1944]

lol, add this to the lawsuit about Musk lying about its capabilities. He’s been saying this for almost a decade now.

[@JamesBond-qv2ht]

How many amazing tech companies have you founded?

[@lamsmiley1944]

@@JamesBond-qv2ht Musk didn’t found Tesla, he did co-found PayPal but was subsequently fired. That doesn’t really excuse the fact that he’s been lying about the capabilities of “autopilot”. If he wasn’t so rich he’d already be in jail for misleading customers and shareholders.

[@lamsmiley1944]

@@JamesBond-qv2ht he didn’t found Tesla.

[@JamesBond-qv2ht]

@@lamsmiley1944 Tesla was nothing before Elon. It would have been long gone by now. Read a little.

[@carl-Sp]

The Waymo crossover point is nigh. Tesla improving exponentially.

[@juliahello6673]

How does Tesla decide what is a critical intervention?

[@BigBen621]

Tesla doesn't. Various users do, for example to provide data for TeslaFSDTracker; and it's actually critical disengagement, not critical intervention; the good doctor is confusing interventions (action taken that doesn't cause FSD to disengage), with actual disengagements.

[@JohnBoen]

Edit: later you addressed these things, but ... Waymo data is skewed - not in a malicious way. They are in an optimal setting to perform their best - the vehicles were intentionally designed to operate in these Geomapped spaces. I would be interested in knowing the intervention rate for Teslas in the Waymo routes.

[@Not_An_Alien]

Your critical intervention story illustrates why FSD may have a long way to go before robotaxi's. FSD can't break the law like a human, they will probably come to a complete stop at least every couple of days.

[@NoWastedCalories]

Is it a good idea to get rid of the nags at this point then?

[@tiepup]

No, it's not production yet, you still have to be attentive and the nags are still required.

[@health101DOTorg]

Remember when Tim "The Toolman" Taylor would grunt his trademark "Huuuhhh?" Well, when the gen pop does that in response to the announcement that Teslas can now drive them around autonomously, that's the CHAT GPT Moment.

[@RRynard]

there is no way Waymo goes 17,000 miles between interventions :(

[@BigBen621]

It's actually 17,000 miles between disengagements, not interventions; and that's the number that Waymo has reported to the DMV, both in 2022 and 2023. Are you saying it's higher than that, or lower?

[@BigBen621]

You're saying interventions when many of the incidents you discuss are disengagements, not interventions.

[@royh6526]

Are you conflating the statement that users will no longer have to have hands on wheel with not having to pay attention? That just means Tesla will depend on the camera monitoring the driver for nagging. Not paying attention requires certification of SAE Level 3 or above.

[@BigBen621]

Even at Level 3, the driver has to be engaged enough to take over within 10 seconds or so when requested to do so.

[@royh6526]

@@BigBen621 First, the time is determined by the manufacturer, and would normally be about 30 seconds. Second, even 10 seconds is enough time to take your attention away from whatever is occupying you, texting, conversing with friends, watching a movie etc. The point is you do not have to pay attention until notified. This is a lot different from the current condition where you must pay attention constantly.

[@BigBen621]

​@@royh6526 _the time is determined by the manufacturer, and would normally be about 30 seconds.._ The time might be proposed by the manufacturer, but the regulating body has to agree. SAE J3016 only specifies "several seconds". To the best of my knowledge, only one ADS has been approved in the U.S., and that's MB Drive Pilot; and it's 10 seconds. Perhaps you can provide an example of an approved ADS that allows 30 seconds for the user to take back control. The point is that the ADS has to continue driving safety during the time it takes for the fallback-ready user to take control, either in the event of a system failure, or external event beyond the capability of the ADS. 30 seconds is a *very* long time to allow between identification of an internal or external problem the ADS can't cope with, and the user taking back control. I agree with the rest of your comment.

[@royh6526]

@@BigBen621 Well, of course I cannot point to an ADS system with 30 seconds warning because there are none. I based this estimate on the usual expected notification such as approaching destination and user must select parking place or take over to navigate multi-level parking garage. Another case could be in blizzard conditions where worsening weather prompts the driver to take over. None of my examples are emergency conditions, which you are focusing on. Level 3 and above are expected to deal with emergency conditions on its own. I.E a loss of a camera would allow the car to continue driving while driver was notified to take over, because other cameras would still be enough to navigate, but less safely. If the driver does not respond, the car is to attempt to pull over and come to a stop.

[@BigBen621]

@@royh6526 OK, I see where you're coming from. Yeah, I was talking about the delay allowed for the fallback-ready user to take over in case of a system failure or external emergency conditions, before the ADS starts the process of achieving a minimal-risk condition-typically stopping in the travel lane with hazard lights flashing, and taking other actions to notify authorities. I think we're on the same page.

[@salczar]

Is it possible that Tesla figured out how to use the existing datasets for the CT? Like run them through a transformer to modify them to match the CT camera setup? Just a thought….

[@BenefitOfTheDoubtInquiry]

We really need their team to explain this in more detail

[@jonnyb1761]

why dont you have 12.3.6?

[@mb345]

10-15k miles per critical intervention feels low. What is a critical intervention? A wreck would occur without taking over? A NYC cabbie drives about 70k a year. So there could be 5-7 accidents per year in a robotaxi? Seems like you would need to get to 100k-500k per safety critical intervention. I may be looking at this the wrong way.

[@athuddriver]

Statements of goals posted at 2 am is really encouraging. LOL How many times are folks going to believe these promises will occur within a 5-10 year period...if ever?

[@jlrutube1312]

Probably the same number of times people believe that climate change will destroy the planet within 5-10 years. They said that in the 70's (earth cooling) the 80's (earth warming) the 90's the 2000's the 2010's and the 2020's. Nothing ever happens. For 50 years we are supposedly in the last 5 or 10 years for earth.

[@strictnonconformist7369]

Which time zone is the announcement being viewed at within the app, versus the time zone it was made in?

[@petermoran9561]

I wonder, will FSD become the next TiVo?

[@ctuna2011]

Man I thought 12.3.6 was single stack.

[@bonkers_dave]

I don't believe waymo numbers, my understanding is that remote operators can intervene and monitor, are they counting any contact to a monitor, or only when the car gets in so much trouble a remote operator can't rescue it and a person has to come out and drive the car out of whatever problem it has.

[@TheSpartan3669]

Waymo's vehicles can't be driven remotely. The best they can do is set Waypoints for stuck cars.

[@bonkers_dave]

@@TheSpartan3669 By "remote operator" I did not mean "remote control", I meant a remote person gets involved. I am distrustful that Waymo counts every remote supervisors interaction with the car as an "intervention". Many tesla interventions are because the driver does not trust it and intervenes pre-emptively when everything would have been perfectly fine if they didn't. Other times drivers intervene as a courtesy to other drivers because the thing if too hesitant. FSD is not ready for robotaxi, the question is are these really apples to apples comparison.

[@BigBen621]

Pretty sure it's Cruise, not Waymo, that has remote operators.

[@user-qf4ok4eh7c]

@@BigBen621 I recall both, but it was like 1 to 2.5 for cruise and 1 to 15 monitoring for Waymo.

[@royh6526]

@@bonkers_dave Apparently the proper term is "Remote Assistants". This is supposed to avoid confusion with driving a car remotely.

[@tycox9364]

7.5X each version would be 12.4, 2700 mpi 12.5, 20250 mpi 12.6, 151k mpi 12.7, 1.1mil mpi

[@keithgilbert835]

Yes. $2000 by Friday

[@saltvatn]

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻✌🏻

[@jonathanmelhuish4530]

It can't crash every 10,000 miles. That would be a lot of accidents. Maybe 100,000 seems reasonable?

[@jayan5221]

For the scenario with the blocked road, u can just have an option on screen for a robotaxi customer to take an alternate route...

[@TheSpartan3669]

And what if there aren't any alternatives? Or what if the passenger is an infant?

[@jayan5221]

@TheSpartan3669 Who the f would put an infant by it self in a robotaxi??? If no alternatives then how would a car driven by a human be any different???

[@TheSpartan3669]

@@jayan5221 There will be situations where the passenger will not be able to select options. An infant is just one example as well as passengers who are sleeping, blind, experiencing a medical emergency, etc, If the car needs to be prompted to use an alternate route then how will it function in a situation where the passenger can't?

[@jayan5221]

@TheSpartan3669 for every single thing u mentioned, there can easily be workarounds and solutions... An infant by itself in a taxi??? That is just moronic...

[@TheSpartan3669]

@@jayan5221 What's the workaround to the system needing to be prompted to take an alternative route when the passenger can't prompt it. It's moronic that you're unable to understand that the passenger's inability to interact with the point of the examples. If it makes it easier for you try imagining no passenger at all.

[@hornetutube]

But 10000 miles between „critical interventions“ means what when applied to a fleet of robotaxis? One, two or three unlucky souls per day or peer wheek? Those who where unlucky enough to catch the 10000th mile on their ride… rest in peace? You know, a need for a critical intervention will always result in an accident without a driver ready to intervene. Thus rate of critical interventions needs to become lower than actual rate of accidents… which should be much lower than 1 per 10000 miles.

[@BigBen621]

No, it won't. Just like every time someone runs a red light or a stop sign, or turns from the wrong lane, or drives briefly in the oncoming lane, all of which would trigger a critical disengagement, doesn't result in an accident. It creates the *risk* of an accident; but would actually cause an accident a small proportion of the time.

[@BradAkersphotography]

Waymo via (was operating class8 up to 80k ton trucks, and before Uber the 4th gen Pacifica was on 65s) waymo has recently expanded the 5th GEN driver for internal passenger testing on 65 mph south of San Francisco. One key difference when they went from 4th GEN to 5th GEN they almost had to start from scratch. Now waymo is importing the next gen Chinese made Gelly. Guessing they built the iPace as a mule for it so hopefully they’re not back to near the beginning. how useful the fifth GEN ipace data is remains to be seen.

[@aaktatich]

This is all very promising but the real test regarding a driverless car is when Tesla assumes legal liability. A lot of lives can be saved but there will be lawsuits. There are plenty of crazy humans driving to contend with.

[@BigBen621]

There are already lawsuits, and the courts can assign legal liability to Tesla, whether they assume it or not.

[@PeteC62]

Its so laughable when people still take a word Musk says seriously.

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I'm looking at buying a Model Y before the end of May. What is your referral code? Great videos, btw.

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[@zakisaber8804]

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[@gamingexpert2670]

Everything is down right which is the perfect time to trade crypto! Don't sleep on these opportunities

[@ranig2848]

I bet CyberTruck FSD will leave squirckle neutral and won’t move it. That’s why they’re waiting for 12.5. Coming 12.4 won’t do nag and if this proves itself, there’s no reason the move the steering wheel if it’s physically disconnected from the front wheels 🥳😱🥳😱

[@brianp8384]

Although that would make it rather disorienting if you had to suddenly grab the steering to intervene and it's not line up with where the front wheels are pointing.

[@tnelly6588]

Is it "game changing?" Is it "mind blowing?" We've been hearing those adjectives multiple times per year for 7 years!!! I know, I know....its different this time, haha. Prediction: 8/8 will just be another roadmap unveil. "Here's how we really plan on achieving FSD this time"....and like clockwork, every uber-bull will jump on board, completely and willingly forget every past promise and then wait another few years for the next shine-on. Rinse and repeat with Optimus.

[@douglasgray3206]

But now it’s finally here….i think, maybe, a good possibility anyway of it happening fairly soon at the very least I should think!..if all goes well!

[@user-qf4ok4eh7c]

I don't really care what consensus is. FSD is good enough for anyone as is for a regular commute. That is a game changer. Robo will come when it comes, and the world will be a better place.

[@billdale1]

You never explain what a "stack" is, despite referring to it repeatedly.

[@brianp8384]

Think of stack as software version. When V12 got rid of implicit computer coding and went to Neural Net, that was only for city streets. The highway version was still running on the old V11 implicit code. So FSD was running two "stacks" - one for city streets and one for highway. They are now talking about also getting rid of the code for highway and running one single stack for both.

[@richardkule9384]

Tesla talk. Requires deep fan boy indoctrination studies to understand.

[@jlrutube1312]

@@richardkule9384 You say fan boy like it's a bad thing.

[@richardkule9384]

@@jlrutube1312 No, I'm a fan too, but I try to reel it a bit.

[@billdale1]

​@@brianp8384TY, and other vid watchers thank you as well.

[@biscuitapocalypse5883]

He's really got his finger on the pulse. That's why he arbitrarily panic fired the whole supercharger team when hit by a bad earnings report 😀

[@douglasgray3206]

I heard he fired the whole team because the team leader did not want to layoff anyone.

[@royh6526]

@@douglasgray3206 All we have is hearsay. Reuters, an anti-Tesla publication, claims that up to 20% were already laid off and Elon declared that was not enough. Even though Elon had previously stated 10%.

[@allieflounder5764]

Numerology😊

[@zdme4864]

I hope Elon is 10x! you suggest FSD hands free in 12/2024/ or early 25 … that is an extrapolation of course! but very exciting!

[@BigBen621]

Actually, according to Musk Hands Free will come next week, with the release of V12.4.

[@royh6526]

Hands free, does not mean attention free. Monitoring of driver will be done by camera only and not require hands on wheel for nag.

[@POC3442]

IBTL for all those old people who know what I mean!

[@namenotshown9277]

Should self driven cars even be allowed at all? Even if they eventually become statistically safer then human drivers? Should 'robot' cars even be allowed to exist let alone become common......shouldn't this be something that is debated before being accepted? Should the person who is pushing for fsd be held responsible for any deaths that occur or have already occured? Would I like a self driving car..........hell yeah

[@petermoran9561]

Love Tesla, but I dont want to be in a driverless taxi when there is an intervention required. regardless if its 1 million MPI, Lets hope it doesn't involve an accident where passengers are in danger.

[@dattajack]

You prefer a human driver with an even lower mpi ?

[@BongoWongoOG]

@@dattajack The human benchmark is 2.78 incidents per million miles driven

[@petermoran9561]

I can alert a human driver. I have to watch as FSD makes a potentially deadly mistake.

[@petermoran9561]

If I could intervene, seems I would feel better. FSD STOP!!

[@bigdopamine9343]

He’s lying and you’re helping him defraud people.

[@richardhost7794]

If FSD is learning from humans, will FSD then drive like an average human? To get better than humans, won’t Tesla need to train on simulations?

[@BigBen621]

The point is that FSD is not copying hazardous behaviors by human drivers, including texting while driving; other distracted driving; drunk and drug-impaired driving; road rage; fatigue; falling asleep at the wheel; medical emergencies; running red/yellow lights and stop signs; wrong-way driving; following too closely; unsafe lane changes; speeding; street racing; reckless driving; loss of control; and probably several other categories I haven't thought of. These are the cause of the majority of accidents; so driving like an average human, but *without* these behaviors, will result in a dramatic reduction in accidents, injuries and fatalities.

[@Ezekiel903]

This from a long SpaceX engineer. Elon is only a good business man, nothing more. We spend xx hours on his Mars dream. Humans are not made for space, we lose bone structure, fertilization is a issue etc., but he pushes it forward, only questioning him about how we will survive on Mars 38% gravity will cost you the job! And fires coworkers per Email, not even the ball to say it in front of year long coworkers. Using Tesla as name for his product is dishonoring a real genius! Please twit him how humans want survive on Mars gravity!

[@rontz]

😂 yeah. It‘s not like he hasn‘t stated FSD was working years ago - oh wait. Or that he hasn‘t stated many things „basically completed“ years ago, which still aren‘t here - oh wait. This guy‘s selling vaporware and his fanbase for some reason still happily throws money at him, just for his false promises.

[@billweberx]

I don't see why Optimus will see the same kind of improvements as FSD. Optimus does not have billions of frames of video data to train on like FSD does.

[@GershonBenYitzhak]

I kind of agree. They are training optimus now by having humans do stuff with cameras on them. They won't have millions of humans feeding them data

[@hakanstuns43]

Videos everywhere. I bet they have had videos in production all the time.

[@corwinzelazney5312]

It's also not going to be in environments that can get you killed or it demolished. And no ones life will be in its hands. And it won't have to make as many second by second decisions. It's not only training with real world data, but simulated. And just last week we saw a robot learning an incredibly difficult physical task that it was trained on 100% in simulation only, and performed the task real world, right off the simulation.

[@billweberx]

@@corwinzelazney5312 Do we know that? How do you know what environments it will be operating in? What if it makes a mistake and harms a child? What if it's chopping veggies and it accidentally stabs someone? As soon as it's out in the wild, we will see all kinds of scenarios that we never thought would happen. And without a lot of training data, it will make lots of mistakes, just like the cars do.

[@jdestremps]

Fan boy

[@Ample17]

I think Tesla stock is doomed. Elons comp. Package will likely not be approved.

[@masterclean5]

X

[@bonkers_dave]

Good try.

[@HelloCSharp2012]

It may not be so quick to achieve the target, so in my opinion, it might take more than 4-5 years.

[@BigBen621]

Thank you for at least acknowledging that this is your opinion, and you're not stating it as a fact as many who make similar claims do. But given the facts that end-to-end NN FSD has only been in development a little over a year; Tesla's compute power has increased dramatically just this year; and Teslas driving with FSD engaged are adding 75 to 100 million miles a month to the already 1.3 billion miles driven, this seems a bit pessimistic to me.

[@restonthewind]

​@@BigBen621 FSD's about to 10x!!! Semi beats rail in a convoy scenario, NOW! The first operating robotaxis in 2020 ... with no one in them. When has Elon Musk ever been too optimistic about FSD? Skeptical opinions have been right so far.

[@MegaPixel404]

Version 14 to 16 is when it will be ready for country wide use could get approval I suspect. As for level 4 (stage 2), not a chance this or next year, probably 2027 to 2030. Till then, it's nothing to write home about...

[@sumitagg1]

I believe the best case is that FSD should enable more car sales. They need a different way to package FSD so that people feel like they’re getting it for free. This is what BMW, Mercedes, Audi all do. It’s not hard but someone at Tesla needs more sophisticated pricing packages

[@BigBen621]

IDK about BMW and Audi, but Mercedes charges $2,500/year for their seriously crippled Level 3 Drive Pilot, more than double the cost of FSD.

[@stonks7094]

can you use dark mode? my eyes are fkn burnning

[@DJ-Illuminate]

I think the Elon posts are A.I. trained to speak for him.

[@plantstho6599]

That would make sense

[@antonystringfellow5152]

I like your channel but... I have zero interest in what Elon Musk has to say about anything. He's not a reliable commentator on any subject. The man lies about most of his past, takes credit for the work of others and makes up fantasies about his future.

[@curtis4176]

I think it’s about time some real improvements happen FSD was promised 7 years ago. I’ll believe it when I see it at this point….

[@lloovvaallee]

Seriously? You still believe Elon after he has been lying to us for the better part of the past decade?

[@noleftturns]

More "Happy Talk" from elon "Just you wait...10X...100X....1,000X" sure elon...

[@onlythebest3311]

He’s been saying the same for the last 10 years, it’s all just marketing to prop up the company until they can actually deliver at least another decade away. To get to level 4/5 they need to solve the last 5% which Tesla fsd is no where close to do. try to do fsd in a real city like nyc, it fails miserably. It doesn’t even know how to properly merge on ramp on busy highways, nevermind the weather factor…And the robot thing is a complete marketing sham, it’s decades away from being useful. Elon relies cheerleaders like this guy who dramatize evert Elon tweet to help spread the fud. Like the saying goes, if Elon farts, this guy will say it’s the best smelling fart ever and do a 10 min video on it

[@vermontsownboy6957]

I just drove FSD in NYC. Not sure what you are trying to state here, but FSD was brilliant. FSD had one intervention where it hesitated to execute a 2-into-1 highway entrance ramp merging into a bridge (I needed to give car the go-throttle), FSD was safer than me, and no wonder: I don't have cameras in back of my head and on the side of my head.

[@onlythebest3311]

@@vermontsownboy6957 set fsd from anywhere in manhattan to somewhere in queens say flushing or forest hills. If you are telling me fsd works and can drive you there, then one of us is living in alternate reality.

[@larindanomikos]

Why does your crap come up in my movie searches? All this alt-right crap glomms onto my searches.

[@tedg1609]

Maybe not so many searches like, “Hitlers favorite movie” and you’ll get fewer alt-right results ?

[@jimj2683]

This guy is pandering to people who have their entire net worth in TSLA stock.

[@cheronecom]

Elon fans like saying "order of magnitude"

[@RobertLoPinto]

It's an engineering thing more than an Elon fan thing.

[@jayan5221]

Elon haters splitting hairs to find something negative...

[@lylestavast7652]

10x of current, by comparison sounds kind of like arithmetic.

[@TheForwardThinker]

Definitely an engineering thing! Those who know, know!

[@mohammadwasilliterate8037]

*Tesla is EXCITING STUFF!!!*

[@user-wg3tw9jg5c]

almost like game stop.