Brett Talk: Inflation, RVs & Truths About Motorhome Industry Decline

Part 1 of the 3-Part Series | In our latest video series, "Brett Talk," NIRVC President and CEO Brett Davis shares insights on the RV industry. First topic: inflation! And its disproportionate effect on the motorized RV industry.
It’s crystal clear that the RV lifestyle is very popular here in the United States. Since 1980, the RV industry has grown 450% times faster than the population. Considering that new industries and disrupters are created every day, it’s quite impressive that a 65 year old industry is still growing 4.5 times faster than the population.
Now, when we isolate towables as their own segment of the industry - manufacturers shipped 78,468 towable units in 1980 - growing to a peak of 554,058 by 2021. This is a compounded annual growth rate of almost 500% faster than the population!
On the contrary - motorized RV production reached its all-time high way back in 1984! That year, manufacturers shipped 81,992 new motorhomes. (This number comprises all Classes: A, B and C.) By 2022, motorhome shipments had fallen to just 58,410 units, which is its current cyclical peak. In Wall Street lingo, motorhomes have had six “dead cat bounces” since its all-time high in 1984: meaning, with each business cycle, there have been lower highs AND lower lows.
From 1984 through 2021 (the year the RV Industry as a whole reached its all-time high), motorhome production and shipments experienced a compounded annual negative growth rate of -0.92%.
Think about that for a minute. The population grew at a positive 0.97% per annum, while the motorized RV industry shrunk almost just as fast, at a negative -0.92%. But, now to add insult to injury, motorhome production lost serious market share as well, falling from 38.01% of all RVs manufactured in 1984 to just 9.36% by 2021. A stunning 75.4% decline in market share!
Why is it the exact opposite ratio in Europe? Why do 90% of Europeans own a motorhome and only 10% own a towable? Historically, on average, over this same period of time, gas was 43% cheaper here in America than it was in the UK, and diesel was 54% cheaper.
On a relative basis, motorhomes also have become more affordable since 1984, despite their decline in sales and market share. The fact motorhomes are more affordable today than they were at their peak in 1984 doesn’t explain their 38-year decline in sales and market share.
Be sure to watch the entire video as Brett takes a look at the past 43.5 years of RV shipments, identifying through actual sales data how easily once can see when overbuilding (excess supply) or under-building (excess demand) is occurring.

[@NIRVC]

EDITOR'S NOTE: At 22:06, the increase in price for a second Florida home is actually 606%

[@Elliott23232323]

For me, the answer is simple. I would not own my RV if it were not for NIRVC. NIRVC takes all of the headaches out of owning an RV. Brett, you are a first class individual and you run a first class RV facility. You changed the RV industry in BIG way, for the better.

[@patrickgiannini3106]

The breadth and depth of your analysis is outstanding. My recent experience in purchasing a new luxury class A diesel pusher is in my view a major contributing factor in the destruction of that segment market share. The class A segment seems to be broken. Quality control is virtually non-existent. Dealer support is nearly non-existent. The only bright spot in the class A segment is NIRVC! As a full time rver the state of quality control is exponentially complicated. We're in the 18th month of ownership of our new coach and having lost nearly 6 months of usage during that because of warranty issues is an unacceptable ownership experience in my view. Unfortunately my experience is the norm. If the industry doesn't make a major course correction in the class A segment the future is not bright.

[@sterlingrosetrans]

With the proliferation of pickup trucks as daily drivers for many, I just wonder if people feel they don't need another motorized vehicle. They can simply hook up to a towable with the vehicle they already have and save themselves a tremendous amount of money. The most luxurious of towables tops out around $200k for the most part. That's a lot of money to be saved. I also believe that towables are becoming a more common place option for full time living, as well as a 2nd home option for "snow birds".

[@jeromewelte3449]

I was thinking the same. As a matter of convenience I wonder of more people aren't opting for a towable when they already have a capable tow vehicle. I wonder how strong the negative correlation is between truck and mid/large SUV ownership and motorized shipments?

[@rbkelly57]

Thank you Brett for the information and your insight. Very interesting. Looking forward to the next 2 videos.

[@rogersparry2945]

I have owned 8 motorhomes over the last 20 years and am selling my current 2018 Newmar Dutch Star 4369 through NIRVC. Several things I will note in my decision to give up RVing: 1. Quality has suffered, 2. Service is terrible, 3. Wait time for service is una capable, 4. Depreciation, service and operating cost eat you alive.

[@globemaster2356]

Very true. I feel your pain.

[@johnharbaugh9471]

Our first unit was Winnebago that we "borrowed" from my parents. We took 3 trips and after attending the Florida RV Super show, we are on our second Entegra Anthem. For us its simple. We have a clean bed, hot shower, fully stocked frig and whatever we want to watch on the Satellite or streaming TV show. Heated floors and AC that keeps us comfortable, along with no concerns on our dog. After you talk with a non RV owner about the costs and time involved to travel by air or driving, staying in hotels and eating out every day. Verses driving and seeing the sites, stopping as we desire, home cooked meals and no stress as we take our furry friend(s) with us. Along with having our own clean bed, shower and washer/dryer. Others seem to have a greater desire to consider the RV travel conveniences. Simply put we didn't consider owning an Entegra as a cost, but an investment that granted us convenience and cost savings.

[@NIRVC]

Very well said John! And, I totally agree! I have always been in love with the RVing Lifestyle, the sights, traveling at my pace in comfort, and all the memories it created for my family. The coach simply enabled it all. The sights, the people, and the memories were, and still are, where my emotional and financial attachment to the lifestyle lie. I’ve never had an emotional attachment to the machine itself. Thank you for taking the time to watch the video, and leaving your comment. I greatly appreciate it! All the best, Brett

[@RONDSMITH]

Very interesting comments that you make. Can’t wait to here the others. At 66 years old I have saved up a very nice retirement nest egg. Got more than enough income coming from investment properties and Social security to purchase any rv I want. For the last several years I have been wanting to trade up from a 5th wheel to a Newmar Dutch Star. What’s hold me up? Just not wanting to take the lost in devaluation of a new unit. Even though I have the cash to spend, do I really want to do that bad investment? Now after seeing the new Brinkley 5th wheels (and I already have the F350) I realize I can spend 4 times less and still have the same amount of fun. But deep down I want a class A.

[@michaelprince129]

Brett - As always, I enjoy and look forward to your world class insight on economics, logic and RV trends. I too, look forward to parts two and three !! Several thoughts: Many of us RV owners may have started with a small trailer, moved up to a gas RV, then a diesel RV, and, in my case, look forward to moving up to a larger newer diesel RV. And, jumping up in level from a nice but starter DP to a new or newer luxury DP is a big jump by todays prices. I do hope to buy from NIRVC. Next, on the fact that there are fewer, by percentage, towables in Europe, I just got back from a 2 week business trip to Belgium and Germany, rented a car and did a bit of driving. I saw RVs of all types (only 2 small class A's), and, as you mentioned saw many more class C's than trailers. I believe the biggest reason for the smaller percentage of towables over there, is that they don't have the full sized Pick-up trucks especially the HD Duallies that can tow the larger trailers, and I saw no 5th Wheels or vehicles that could pull one. I have several friends there that drive full size America PU trucks and, in a small town I visited, there is a Hummer H2!! Local streets are narrow but the Hi-ways and the Autobahn are perfect for a full size DP. Thank you again for sharing your wisdom !!

[@jeromewelte3449]

Brett, we really appreciate the insights and thought processes you use. Can't wait for the next 2 videos. With that said, considering the investment NIRV has made over the past few years, you either 1) anticipate a reversal in the decline in the motorized market, and/or 2) plan to significantly increase your market share (which based upon your increasing and loyal following seems to be happening)

[@DavidLadwig-i7m]

Long term statistics present one picture, Brett, but near term see, to play a role. In 2014 the MSRP on a Cornerstone was ~$523K. The price on a 2023 Cornerstone was just South of $950K. Similar price increases can be seen, I believe, down the lines of DPs. This would suggest that in a relative shorter period of time, the cost of DPs has become a significantly larger portion of average income. In addition, comparisons to vacation homes is a bit dubious as those homes have seen a significant increase in value while motorhomes depreciate significantly. Pls don’t misinterpret…I think I probably see where you’re headed in this discussion; however, a third factor might have an impact. A significant market share for higher end motor coaches are in the senior households where people rely on pensions and investments for disposable income…a two edge sword in that investments soared over those 8 years, but inflation-based adjustments to retirement pensions are significantly lower. Fear of the future value of investments versus inflation/interest rates/depreciation are intangibles that sort themselves out over the long term, but in the near term affect the market. The one thing that doesn’t adjust downward is the cost of purchase of a new DP and the total cost of ownership (I think, though I don’t have the hard numbers). A good video, but as you say, the assumptions drive the argument.

[@user-wh2nn4ve1u]

I am the owner of the RV Driving School, and want to thank Brett for this first overview of the RV market. We provide a service to the industry that provides a level of security to those who are desirous of the larger RVs, but are concerned about whether they can feel comfortable driving these vehicles. For over thirty years, and with a staff of over 100 instructors, we pride ourselves on instilling the confidence that folks need that they can handle the motorhomes of all sizes. We have had an active involvement with your stores, teaching your valets how to safely negotiate moving RVs at your dealerships. I would add we put on seminars and behind the wheel lessons all over the U.S.

[@terrysweat4204]

Very interesting information. We've been RVing for a while. Amist all the info/feedback from folks on the topic, I'd say one of the issues is knowledge of and about RVing. Lots of folks that may want to do RVing don't really understand how to begin. First they need to know the kind of trips or vacationing they want to do, how they could use an RV, when they can use it, where they can store it, and most of all, how to use it, no matter if it's a TT, FW, or Class A, B or C. Sure, some have friends with an RV or a friend of a friend that has one and when questions are asked, the feedback can be good or bad which can lead to interest in or no further interest at all. Sure, there are going to be problems with an RV as with other things we pruchase, but at what cost. Breaking down on a family trip in your RV is not fun, especially if the dealership doesn't want to help and pushes the problem off on the manufactor and the manufactor is pushing it back to the dealership, all the while you're still broke down and can't get your family and RV back home. Not going to get on a soap box but hopefully the picture is painted. The input to RVing and how much fun it is and/or can be comes from the folks that have purchsed them and are happy to pass on that experience to other, but the demise of RVing can come from the folks that are not overly happy with the issues listed in the comments and then some.

[@JB-jv4su]

Our purchase @ your ATL store sold us on NIRVC. We purchased a Class C. During our service I test drove a Class A. Here are my thoughts to your question Brett. Class A have all the things that we want- room, comfort, storage, options and floor plans. I believe that Class A Motorhomes have negatives as well- size, driving limitations due to size & weight, campground restrictions due to size, fuel economy, storage and maintenance. For my wife and I, we love what the Europeans love- ease of operation, maneuverability and fuel economy. Just my thoughts. Thank you for your videos, research and education Brett.

[@rogerpeele8720]

Brett, I have owned a motorized RV for almost seven years now. I purchased a 2017 Thor Citation (25 foot Class C) in March 2017. I traded it for my 2022 Entegra Reatta XL in September 2021 at your Surprise, Arizona location. Bluntly, the reason I purchased the Entegra from NIRVC was because I had stored my Thor at the Surprise location since January 2020. Actually, I have paid for storage at the Surprise location continuously since January 2020, upgrading it to the Entegra when it was purchased. I think I have some standing to make a few comments. I purchased from you because of customer service, and believe that loyalty matters. I also retained my Thor for enough years to learn many difficulties associated with service and repairs. Therefore, I was searching for good service potential after the sale. Class A Motorcoaches are by size alone quite a chore to handle. Couple this with the intricacies of a luxury home rumbling down the road and you have a statistical likelihood of needing repairs almost continually. Finding people capable of repairing these monsters is at best difficult! Paying for these repairs is even more difficult! It is really hard to quantitate the cost. I maintain this is the driving factor and also the root cause for the sales decline.

[@NIRVC]

Roger, Thank yon so much for all your business, taking the time to listen to my musings, and then leaving me this very thoughtful comment. I really appreciate it! And, you have certainly earned the right to share or say anything you would like to me. Without giving too much away ahead of my next video, I will say you and I are in sync. As a side note, the vast majority of the decline has come in the smaller Class B and C units, and not so much in the big Class A market as the Class As make up such a very small percentage of motorized sales. And therefore, a very small percentage of the decline. Again, thank you so much! Onward, Brett

[@WILDEBILL308]

Thank you for the very interesting comments on the industry. Many of the facts were new to me. I never realized the motorized market was declining. I am wondering how the number of used coaches still in use affects the market?

[@jameswicklund]

We currently have a 35 ft motorhome and are considering an upgrade. What is holding us back? Unable to get service done at a reasonable price and time frame. My opinion is that until the service part of owning a MH is fixed the sales will continue to lag.

[@christopherlopez4285]

You have a lot of great points. 1. The quality of RVs combined with the ability/complexity to repair would be one reason. 2. The population growth in the US is mainly in the cities with HOAs and rules, making storing a class A more of a challenge now vs the past. I wish you all had a location in central Ohio as the quality and professionalism of dealers here leave me not feeling confident about my experience after the sale. Please look at the northern columbus area. Sunbury/Galena area. It would be a great place to expand for you all. Thank you for the video!

[@RamblinRoadies]

I love hearing your perspective.

[@tomchelbana7539]

It is interesting that in California the number of class A motor homes is closer to 20% compared to nation wide. Maybe we can use our class A motor homes year round and family incomes are higher but what about our diesel fuel prices of over 6$ a gallon. I am not 100% sure if the numbers match but have read and talked with RV persons on those numbers.

[@wildernessdisneydad1621]

Thank you for this series of videos. You only use the fixed costs of rv ownership in your analysis. Could the variable costs of class A ownership help explain the decline?

[@shoeman13]

Interesting presentation...I also used to utilize a lot of pertinent data in my business decision-making. As a first-time buyer of a class C back in 2018 ($100,000 investment)...I was very close to purchasing a new 2021 New Aire ($500,000.) At that point, prices were at all time highs and I backed off. Then over the last couple of years, inflation has taken its toll...even with 25%+ discounts off of MSRP. That makes buying an expensive luxury item even tougher. So my opinion is that the cost of entry in the DP class has just gotten so high that only rock stars and very wealthy people can buy new units. And a close second is that with so many "bells & whistles" on todays units (both chassis & coach) the build quality is a big gamble even with quality manufacturers like Newmar & Tiffin. Imagine purchasing that $500K new home and then being told you can't use it for 3-4 weeks while you wait for a major repair to be made...that happens. You don't see that happening with a quality auto manufacturer but very rarely. (I realize a motorhome is a tin can on wheels but....) As a former business owner, I would like to see overall sales in dollars (not just units) since there has been substantial price increases over the years. Does the Class A DP market look as bad comparing actual sales and not just units? Thanks for what you share with the industry.

[@Simplifiers]

Hi Brett….thanks so much for sharing your insights. I can’t wait to hear more. We have a 2022 Entegra Aspire purchased from you folks, and we love the coach, but I’m really curious if maintenance and repair costs are a contributing factor to the problem with motorized sales. An oil and filter change on our old coach at a Loves travel center would cost less than $375. Our last Spartan annual service (granted with a few more line items) cost over $3,400. It was unbelievable. We are thinking of returning to NIRVC Atlanta for our annual service next year, but I hear stories of how costly you folks have become as well. We love our coach, and we love NIRVC, but at some point it feels like we’re all being fleeced. I hate to take my beautiful coach to a truck stop for service, but it’s becoming hard to justify any other decision. We’ve heard many people tell us they’ve moved to a towable because of this.

[@NIRVC]

Good morning, I apologize for my tardy reply. KZbin comments are something I rarely get time to get to. It’s all I can do to keep up with my calls, texts, emails, and meetings. Fortunately, someone in our marketing department tagged your comment and sent it to. First, thank you for trusting the purchase of your 2022 Aspire to National Indoor RV Centers. We sincerely appreciate it! Second, you are correct on the annual service of your chassis. They are expensive! However, no one does more Class A Diesel chassis service in the nation than we do. We actually dwarf booth Freighliner Gaffney and Spartan in Charlotte. Chassis service is a loss leader for us. We have always promised to be the lowest cost provider of chassis service… bar none! on an “apples to apples” comparison, we will not be beat on our chassis service. Meaning, same list of items inspected, same lubrication points, same quantity of oil, same quality of oil, filters, and parts… we will not be beat! I hope you comparison shop the same list, and then come and try us for your annual chassis service. As for how expensive we are, I believe the synergistic effects of our business model makes us the lowest cost provider for all the services we offer. For example, we are the only dealer or service center in the nation who offers indoor storage. Well, because of storage, we are the only dealer or service center who doesn’t have any occupancy costs. Our storage income covers all our occupancy costs, which is a huge competitive and pricing advantage. Unlike our competitors, we don’t have to sell a coach, or service a coach in order to “pay the rent.” Our indoor storage covers it all. The only place we don’t pinch our pennies is what we pay our technicians. These machines are very complex, consequently we are the leaders in the industry when it comes to technician pay. I firmly believe if we want an above average brand, we need above average technicians, which means we need to pay above average wages. Should you have any questions, please don’t hesitate in emailing me your cell phone number, and I would be happy to chat. My email address is [e-mail]. Thank you for taking the time to watch the video and then leaving me this comment. I apologize it took so long to find it’s way to me. All the best, Brett

[@tomsandyelliott5170]

Brett, not sure what your travel schedule is, but if you are coming to Atlanta, please have a customer event. Would love to meet you!

[@huntla1]

Okay Brett, I give up. You dispelled every thought Duane and I have had on this subject! And you taught me a thing or two also! Please don’t make us wait too long for videos 2&3!

[@kirkchubbs8284]

So eye opening.. BRETT thank you for helping all of us see how the RV industry sales decline over the years. But why? The true story. No one but you would take the time to help us understand the reasons yes reasons, I believe it has to be more than one situation that as affected the sales. It will be interesting to see why in the next few videos. As you know l have a true interest in the Disney overview for 36 years back to 1985. Yes a long list of STUFF drove Disney price up over the time frame you referred to. It will be interesting if it’s some of the same in the RV industry. Thanks again for sharing.

[@macnut123]

Thanks for a great video and analysis. I’ll look forward to the next!

[@marychristie6194]

I love my Dutch Star ⭐️ I love a Motorhome-I don’t know why they have declined-We watch all the effort people go through setting up TT and 5th wheels in the campgrounds-I do think the cost all the way around from purchase to service may have something to do with the decline -Looking forward to you next video Brett ⭐️🤩💰🇺🇸

[@samsouthard1195]

Your correlations were interesting - but I wonder what the correlation would be to inflation adjusted median household income

[@NIRVC]

Thank you Sam for taking the time to watch the video, and then posting a comment. I do have the inflation adjusted median household income over the same period of time. The problem is, if you use the inflation adjusted median household income, you would also have to adjust the price of the coach for inflation, and then you end up at the exact same result as shown in the video. All the best, Brett

[@rstspecos]

Interesting stats. It does seem a mystery as to why the class A has the exact opposite growth than the other portion of RV’s. Enjoy your views. Can’t wait for the next update

[@RickandDarcirvadventures]

We will only buy from NIRVC. We have to sell our class c first because we could not get a good trade in value for it. I hope it sells quick so we can get on the road full time after buying a motorhome from NIRVC.

Well presented and articulated. Seems a multi-factorial problem.

[@donbaxley5530]

RV's are made so cheap they should be ashamed! Maybe the ones that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars are good but the ones under &100.000 are junk!

[@AWOLlcdrpeterson]

Great Explanation. Brett always does a great job of explaining and providing insight. One correction - at 22:06 - there is a exhibit that shows the price increase of a Tiffin vs Florida Home. The calculated increase in the Florida Home Price is not correct. It should be 606%, showing that motorhomes are an even better value versus a second home from 1984. Looking forward to your next video!

[@NIRVC]

Good evening, Ugh! Good catch! Embarrassing! The best we could do was make an editor’s note in the comments. But, thank you for bringing to my attention. And, thank you for taking the time to watch the video, and leave both a nice and informative comment. Onward, Brett