Brexit - Too Hot to Handle in the General Election?

John Stevens and Brendan Donnelly discuss the implications of the General Election’s results for relations between the UK and the EU. They warn that the Labour Party will not gain much purchase in Brussels by the simple fact of not being the Conservative Party. They conclude that British politics are in flux and that changing political attitudes towards the European Union are at the heart of this volatility.
SPEAKERS
Brendan Donnelly is the Director of the Federal Trust and a former Conservative MEP.
John Stevens is the Chair of the Federal Trust and an analyst and commentator on economic affairs.
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The Federal Trust is a research institute studying regional, national, European and global levels of government. It has always had a particular interest in the European Union and Britain’s place in it. The Federal Trust has no allegiance to any political party. It is registered as a charity for the purposes of education and research.
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#brexit #rejoineu #labourparty #keirstarmer #generalelection2024
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[@johnnylind973]

Brexit was a big blunder , and nobody wants to talk about that . Its a big job to fix it , and will take a decade to undo .

[@trident6547]

@@paullarne Well your government signed all the treaties, on behalf of the monarch, when joining so they all knew exactly what UK signed up to. Or do you claim that the government and parliament did not read the treaties they signed up to?

[@keacoq]

Thank you for that video. for me it was a useful overview of the lection and its aftermath. I think Labour did not discuss Brexit because the party is pro-Brexit (including because of its lack of criticism) while its voters are often anti-Brexit. Silence on Brexit allowed this conflict to remain hidden.

[@rebecca_noble]

Anti brexiters have been whining nonstop since the referendum. Never mind brexit. We've heard it. The UK is not going to rejoin the eu. Forget it.

[@davidharris5736]

@@rebecca_noble At least we've only been moaning since 2016. You moaned for 40 years. It will take time but it's going to happen in one form or another.

[@rebecca_noble]

@@davidharris5736 Ummm no. Remoaner. The EU came into effect in late 1993. As usual for an anti brexiter, you are a liar. You are lying. The 2016 referendum was about EU membership. Which, I might remind you, we REJECTED.

[@rebecca_noble]

@@davidharris5736 The UK will never, ever, ever, ever, ever seek EU membership. So forget it.

[@rebecca_noble]

@@davidharris5736 lol all you ever do is moan and whine and lie..

[@crackerbarrel210]

You guys did well in the recent general election, now field even more candidates for the next general election, like 80+ candidates. This time win some seats and the momentum will be with you. The EU is the future. Good luck! We're with you.

[@MazzaEliLi7406]

Thank you.

[@matchbox555]

Some of the best analysis of the election I have heard, and I have watched so many channels and read lots of commentators.

[@davidpearn5925]

There is no chance as long as the Tory Party maintains it's antagonistic anti-europe attitude . They need to front up to their ownership of the disaster to the SMEs who have suffered from their lack of leadership.

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

I agree completely.

[@rebecca_noble]

@@davidpearn5925 you seem to believe that government is elected by "businesses". It isn't. It's elected by the electorate.

[@kw2142]

excellent analysis as always

[@johnmckie6563]

I’m one of many who are not pleased with KS’s stance on Europe. I hope he changes his mind as the ‘make Brexit work‘ idea is Horlicks at least in an erudite forum such as this.

[@rebecca_noble]

@@johnmckie6563 the labour party has set out a manifesto. They're not going to "change their minds". They have pledged to secure the India fta very quickly and they want it to include a security pact. So, no. No rejoining.

[@colinsmith1288]

@rebeccanoble6797 A market of 1.4 billion people aswell. .

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

@@colinsmith1288 There will be no FTA with India without a very large extension of visas for Indian citizens coming to work and thus potentially settle in the UK. I cannot see that as being politically viable. This is especially so since India is one of the most protectionist countries on earth, and there was no suggestion in the trade negotiations initiated by Mr Sunak that it would open its markets to UK services, notably financial services, thereby rendering any possible accord either far more advantageous to the Indians than to the British, or of only minimal impact on bilateral trade volumes. Sunak and the Conservatives might have been happy with that as a show of a "Brexit benefit", like the one-sided trade deal done by the last government with Australia, I doubt Labour will be so foolish. Currently, Belgium alone does more trade with India than does the UK. Finally a security pact with India, whose position on Ukraine and continuing relations with Russia (since independence its principal ally) is of very dubious value (other perhaps in selling some specific weapons system). India regards China as an economic rival, but it does not fear Chinese aggression in the way that Japan, Korea, Taiwan and South-East Asia and Australasia do, nor has it overcome its deep resentment against us as their former colonial masters.

[@techietrev189]

Brilliant analysis...thanks

[@rebecca_noble]

Yeah, we're going to rejoin the eu, any day now!

[@michaelgoss9606]

Thank you, a very interesting talk.

[@johnnixon7749]

Labour knows the road back to Europe has a major problem. That problem is the Conservative Party and Reform UK. In order for any country to be considered for EU membership there must be broad political agreement in the country on the desire to join. It is not in Labours' power to make the Conservatives and Reform want to rejoin. So they are powerless to deliver rejoining. What they can do though, is everything possible to reduce the disadvantages of being outside the EU. What Labour promised to do was what they could deliver, not what was out of their control.

[@brendandonnelly1853]

In the national interest the Labour government should be using its massive majority to inform public opinion of the damage done by Brexit and making the case for rejoining. Sadly at the moment it seems set on doing the opposite. Let us hope for a rapid change of heart.

[@trident6547]

@@paullarne There are no "offers to rejoin". Any independent European country can apply for membership.

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

You are right, Reform and Conservative opposition are a major problem. You are wrong to imagine that the only answer to this is for the Labour Party to essentially bed down Brexit by marginally mitigating its "disadvantages" as you call them. The damage of Brexit, already immense, is ongoing and cumulative. It is inconceivable that the current clear majority conviction that it was a mistake will, over time, do anything other than harden further in the direction of desiring its complete reversal by rejoining the EU. Labour will have a following wind if it moves to make the case for rejoining and boldly and aggressively attacks, rather than timidly and tentatively appeases the Brexiteers in Reform and the Conservative Party, in whatever combination or lack of combination they might be constituted. It is also the path to co-opting the LDs to a common project which might lead to a merger, further marginalising anti-European opinion. Many of those who voted for the LDs were natural Labour supporters seeking simply to get rid of the Conservatives.

[@colinsmith1288]

@@brendandonnelly1853 A nation that begs and shows weakness will never be respected. It is more important to walk away and accept the decisions made. The Uk is forging it's path ahead but slowly. It will get better without the eu.

[@brendandonnelly1853]

On the contrary, a country that cannot reverse its mistakes is doomed to instability and possible self-destruction.

[@johnjeanb]

Quite right, we are surprised (in the EU) by K.Starmer prediction "not to join the EU in his lifetime". He seems to believe that the TCA is open for negociations when IT IS NOT (only minor adjustments scheduled for 2025 provided it suits the EU). Surprisingly the UK has not learned the lesson that access to EU is not like entering a patisserie and cherry-picking things. Truth is Yes joining some programs may help BUT the key access to the SM and CU is off the table unless joining and complying with all requirements. The UK fails to see that the EU once made a zillion specific deals with Switzerland and regretted it. The EU is still spending a lot of energy to CANCEL the swiss agreement and replace it with a more standard one (Norway-like). France has not forgotten the dirty trick the UK played for AUKUS and the evasive Australian subs, reminding that "Perfid Albion" is never far away from a stab in the back and of course this goes for the defense industry so do not expect anything there. Does this mean that the EU is Anglophobe? Of course not but "Chat échaudé craint l'eau chaude". (Burned cat is weary of getting burned again) so count on the EU & members to be extra-vigilant to verify the motivation of the UK and its acceptance of all the EU project. Anyways a join application will not be considered unless BOTH most important UK parties support it so there will be lots of water under the bridge (maybe Starmer is right after all)

[@jontalbot1]

Don’t be so sure. You and everyone else have no idea how the world will be in two years, let alone five or ten years time. Did you foresee the financial crash, Trump, Covid or Ukraine? I know they are not UK/EU issues: the point is events change things. What if Germany decides it no longer wants to be the paymaster? What if Russia overruns Ukraine?

[@gobnait7855]

Chat échaudé craint l'eau froide. Literally :A scalded cat fears (even) cold water. Once bitten, twice shy... 🙂

[@ulfosterberg9116]

​@@jontalbot1nothing less than a nuclear Exchange will not change anyting on uk joining.

[@jontalbot1]

@@ulfosterberg9116 Many things can bring it about, including the simple passage of time itself. Britain’s original entry was blocked for many years by de Gaulle. The future is not a continuation of the present. We are at a moment in time, that is all.

[@frankoneill5675]

@@jontalbot1 And on that basis it is equally likely that the chances of the UK joining will recede. Regarding Russia invading Ukraine, what has that got to do with the UK becoming an EU member? It makes no sense. The UK was the US's lapdog for decades, it didn't even get them a trade deal.

[@ConorHanley]

A choice between an American or European UK at the moment isn't much of a choice given pretty much the entire European political class has been taking for a ride by the Americans and they have been more than willing to undermine Europe's future for the sake of American interests. In truth not even that, a hopeless attempt to hold back the inevitable.

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

The saliency of the American option is vastly greater in the UK than in any other European country for very obvious reasons. It is possible to see Brexit and the advent of Trump as two facets of a crisis of Anglo-Saxon democracy, founded upon comparable concerns over identity and a retreat from dominant global power, and fuelled by a common complacency about the security of representative institutions and rule of law derived from a far happier history than that of continental Europe. Nigel Farage constitutes a sort of personal trans-Atlantic bridge in this regard. But this crisis is, I believe, far more serious in the UK than in the US, for we have neither the enormous economic strengths, nor the constitutional safeguards of the US. Here, comparisons with our crisis in the 17th century are increasingly apt, not least in the potential role of Ireland and Scotland. In the US, by contrast, notwithstanding the latest Supreme Court ruling on Presidential Immunity, and the growing support for Trump on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley, comparisons with the late Roman Republic still seem implausible.

[@ulfosterberg9116]

Nice try Igor.

[@ulfosterberg9116]

​@@JohnStevens-gp7genice try Igor.

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

@@ulfosterberg9116 A Trump victory will be a victory for Putin. US opinion is far more concerned about the defence of Israel and Taiwan than it is about the defence of Ukraine. Only Europe can save Ukraine in the long run, and can make Russia what it must surely become to be true to its deepest identity, a European country, a democracy, not a kleptocracy. A Trump victory may also risk setting the US on the path to being a kleptocracy rather than a democracy, hence the urgency of the orientation of the UK, both for us, and for the West more generally, though as I say, the US retains great reserves of respect for freedom, reserves I fear, detached from the EU, we may no longer have. So it seems it is you who are the Putin apologist here, or rather the Xi apologist, for Putin, to preserve his power and the wealth of his coterie, is a new Alexander Nevsky, selling himself and his country to the Tartar Yoke whilst claiming fake triumphs over the West.

[@greggbisgrove7499]

We have a PM who on record of saying there will be no return to the EU in his life time .

[@rebecca_noble]

He's right.. Of course. Though it sticks in his craw.

[@brendandonnelly1853]

Just because Starmer says it, that doesn’t mean it is necessarily accurate. He will be swept along by events over which he has little control.

[@rebecca_noble]

@@brendandonnelly1853 So you want a *captive* UK electorate to be in the EU. Whether they like it or not. I endured that for a quarter of a century, Brendan. I know what *compulsion* means. You are the enemy of the UK. Be in no doubt. You are my enemy. Brendan. Fortunately, you are defeated. We beat you at the ballot box. You have to get past the UK electorate. Brendan. No "ifs buts or maybes". You are the enemy.

[@rebecca_noble]

@@brendandonnelly1853 Lol so you think Starmer is a liar, like you? Brendan? Well I agree with you.

[@rebecca_noble]

@@brendandonnelly1853 Here are the UK turnouts for EU elections, while we were members! 1979 32.35% 1984 32.57% 1989 36.37% 1994 36.43% 1999 26% 2004 38.25% 2009 34.7% 2014 36.6% 2019 36.7% Where are your "86%"? Brendan? You are such liars. You lie up one side and down the other. But most of all, you lie to yourself.

[@frankoneill5675]

Sinn Féin do not own the question of reunification in Ireland, and the absence of SF in any future government in Ireland won't alter the drive to reunification. In Belfast in mid June at an Ireland's Future event Leo Varadkar said the next government should push harder for a united Ireland, taking reunification from a political aspiration to a political objective.

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

True. However it is surely fair to say that SF in government in Dublin will significantly accelerate matters regarding a border poll and prove more provocative to Unionist opinion in the North, and thus more challenging for Starmer (and indeed everyone).

[@frankoneill5675]

@@JohnStevens-gp7ge I assume you're not saying that SF would actively provoke Unionists, but that they would feel provoked by SF in power. But given that the DUP, TUV and many others among the extreme end of Unionist loonies are provoked by the idea of Catholics breathing, I wish Keir Starmer all the best in attempting to appease them, something that has eluded everyone for over a hundred years.

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

@@paullarne The issue initially is not the fact of a border poll but its perceived imminence, which in itself could be highly disruptive both in the South and the North, for both extremes in this matter may see advantages in such disruption. More generally, the notion that financial calculation reliably trumps nationalism is nonsense, as Brexit, for example, demonstrates.

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

@@frankoneill5675 I can certainly imagine some DUP members might feel provoked by the suggestion they are offended simply by the very idea of Catholics breathing, but I assume you are not meaning that.

[@frankoneill5675]

@@JohnStevens-gp7ge I am half joking with what I said about the DUP etc, but the general impression is there. Former UDA terrorist turned community and peace worker David Ervine said of the DUP that the only thing the members had in common was their hatred of Catholics

[@powerjets3512]

Gentlemen. The assumption was that the voting system remains and no mention of the greens and younger voters. Can you please address. Also shall we wish Starmer a long life and Biden a visit from god?

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

Neither the Labour Party, nor the Conservative Party, if it does not split, will have any incentive to adopt electoral reform. However, we are in far more revolutionary conditions than generally appreciated and it is conceivable that these will assume such disruptive and threatening dimensions over the next five years that such a reform becomes a pre-requisite for stability, as it will certainly be for rejoining the EU. Were such a convulsion to occur, whether Starmer would be the architect or victim of that change is, again, unclear. An important part of what is fuelling these revolutionary conditions is obviously what happens in the US. I am no expert on American politics, but it seems unduly optimistic to hope Biden standing aside can stop Trump. In any event, what Trump represents in US politics will not be suppressed simply by his defeat in November. The Greens clearly had a good result in our GE, but remain marginal in our politics, and their cause is somewhat in retreat at present, as the costs of the economic transition essential to address climate change attract more opposition, throughout the West. This will only change when Western growth rates rise, a difficult combination of conditions. In Europe, this may happen first in our sun-belt, where essentially free electricity in a decade or so is a real prospect. Younger voters continued disproportionately not to turn out, a key reason for the alarming low participation rate of c 60%, the second lowest since 1885. Nevertheless, for pro-Europeans there is great potential in the fact that a clear majority of the under 40's and even more the under 30's, favour re-joining the EU. It is possible there is a correlation here, given the absence of Brexit from the campaign.

[@nigelhardy7218]

@@JohnStevens-gp7ge One understands that Labour has no interest in PR now that FPTP has won it so many seats on a minority vote share, however, wouldn't the Tories see this moment in their history as being one to think how PR might benefit them? Having said that, I accept that it has the distraction of its pub brawl to preclude any thought for the next twelve months or more. It is unlikely that the voices for electoral reform will remain quiet for much longer after this election and the loveless landslide it has produced. It is likely the PR debate will escalate with Labour in power, which could lead to PR being a big manifesto debate in the next GE, if not before. Reform let's not forget will not let this rest. Maybe this could be something for a future video?

[@powerjets3512]

@@JohnStevens-gp7ge Thanks for the reply and food for thought. I agree. With Starmer banking on growth to help him out of the financial mess, there is a huge potential for disappointment with Labour. They did not have a large share of the vote in the first place Business needs motivated young people, who at the moment cannot buy a house or start a family. It seems all is out of reach and they are too despondent to vote. The Reform party will keep preaching that the migrants are the cause of peoples financial, or perceived financial, worries. Please keep the younger people in the discussion. Looking forward to the next informed video.

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

@@nigelhardy7218 The Conservatives will only want PR if there is a major defection either to Reform, or somewhere else, possibly, though I think it unlikely, to the LDs. If this happens, or if tensions inside the Labour Party are very destabilising, so as to destroy current assumptions, which again is possible, but even more unlikely, then certainly we will discuss the issue.

[@markwelch3564]

​@@JohnStevens-gp7gethe Greens are countering the trend of younger people not voting, especially in towns with a younger demographic where they can build a strong grassroots campaign Among the Green activists I know, there's talk of growing the vote, and they are very upbeat and positive about the next 4-5 years

[@edwardanthony8929]

When interest rates were small it was the time to borrow and spend on infrastructure, it didn’t happen. With a large majority it is time to take significant action. Instead and sadly Sir Starmer will hunker down and be the new Mr Cameron.

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

He cannot be that, for interest rates are not returning to those low levels, and our international credit is now stretched to levels perilously close to breaking point.

[@samhartford8388]

The Tories made it impossible for Starmer and Reeves to do much more. The credit rating was AA or AA- whereas Germany's is the highest AAA.

[@rnanerd6505]

This could be an opportunity for the lib dems in 2029, ie to present themselves as the genuine rejoin party

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

I think the LDs have a huge opportunity, after their seat score in the GE, to drive the pro-European cause for the Centre-Left in Parliament and thus play a major role in pushing Labour to be more bold in the direction of embracing rejoining the EU. And electorally, in the future, this could be especially so in areas where the current collapse of the Conservatives is transforming the parliamentary battleground into one between them and Labour, as in the South-West. However, I do not see the LDs winning over the Centre-Right to pro-Europeanism and destroying the present anti-European grip on the Conservative Party. Because fundamentally they are a Centre-Left party. And a pro-Europeanism of the Right needs to come from within the Right. Which means now it must be remade virtually from scratch, if Farage is to be defeated and a Reform take-over of Conservatism prevented. And without a revived pro-Europeanism of the Right, as well as of the Left, there will not be the support across the ideological spectrum necessary to make rejoining the EU possible.

[@rnanerd6505]

@@JohnStevens-gp7ge thanks John, very valid points and I fully agree

[@rebecca_noble]

There's no "hostility to brexit". "rejoin eu" didn't get better than 1.8% The average was 0.78%

[@mikewilson8513]

You forget, this is a pro EU government now. Every one is a 'remainer'. Watch for the start of the push back

[@clarecrawford9677]

@@mikewilson8513 Rebecca seems to be a Brexiteer who haunts pro-EU channels. She may come back with a snide response, if not to you then to me as she has done it before.

[@mikewilson8513]

@@clarecrawford9677 Thanks for the heads up. Should be interesting.. Brexiteers are starting to panic now ! Great !!

[@brendanmcsweeney1]

Extraordinary misunderstanding of electoral results.

[@rebecca_noble]

@@brendanmcsweeney1 I see. So where are all those "63% of the UK electorate" then, Brendan? You know, the ones in those "polls"?