DeepSeek Threat To TESLA? FSD “Prepare To Be Shocked!”, Model Y All Changes

[@BrighterwithHerbert]

Buying a Tesla? Use my referral link and get up to $2,000 off. ts.la/herbert23392 My daughter: ts.la/amanda443323

[@NilsFrederking]

Jeff Lutz is just one of another level, I always appreciated his comments, but here he is really astonishing me, how he can analyze a situation and bring it across with just a few sentences. Thank you very much!

[@Braingeyser64]

Jeff Lutz is just endlessly interesting to listen to. The amount of knowledge that man has on a wide variety of subjects is staggering. And he's a born communicator with a great voice. Love listening to him talk!

[@jamesstavros3680]

I just said the same thing….Jeff is at the Top…Best interview of him…!

[@nickmcconnell1291]

Here's betting that James Wang, who's part on X talked about how FSD isn't close to Waymo yet, hasn't cleaned the front windshield where his front camera looks through. I have 13.2.2 and it was much better but still wasn't as great as others were saying. Then I cleaned that section of window and WOW... what a difference! So much better, so much smoother!

[@iainmrodgers9991]

Tesla should do something to make sure the camera can clean itself.

[@nickmcconnell1291]

@ I agree although the Tesla service center will clean it for free for you... but that's a hassle too. I'm hoping they will identify the off gassing compounds and send out a replacement camera cover (or similar) that would have even easier access so that a small chemical sachet bag (that absorbs these vapors and keeps them from building up on the window) could be easily replaced??

[@jamesstavros3680]

Hey that Jeff Lutz is one Educated Dude…. Always a pleasure to listen to this man speak….!

[@Coachteach]

Deepseek means 2 things for Tesla--> 1. all of their compute can work at 5x efficiency within the next couple of months 2. Deepseek may have provided the path to make HW3 work with FSD. Both facts accelerate Tesla enormously. The moats of data, EV manufacturing profitability and ability to scale manufacturing on a high scale, remain. Tesla just got boosted ahead yet again.

[@shepherdsknoll]

But Deepseek’s advantage seems to be to distill and mimic, can this work with FSD ?

[@Coachteach]

@shepherdsknoll it distills and mimics a model that's already been made I think... they can't get Tesla's model and they can't generate their own without data and going through the same steps as everyone else. That's my understanding, but I'm no expert

[@Coachteach]

@shepherdsknoll it distills and mimics a model that's already been made I think... they can't get Tesla's model and they can't generate their own without data and going through the same steps as everyone else. That's my understanding, but I'm no expert

[@marcdevilliers2182]

Last week people thought Nvidia was going to compete with Tesla to solve FSD, this week it's deepseek.

[@BruceJohnson-w4h]

Herbert and his glasses-wearing buddy sounded very nervous in this interview. No mystery there. They have been talking up Tesla (and, by extension, the rest of the Mag 7) for the past year, without even a nod toward Chinese competition. Chinese insiders beat the living sh!t out of our gracious hosts. The channel is free, to be sure. But you get what you pay for.

[@BruceJohnson-w4h]

LOL, glasses guy is still talking up Tesla tech advantage in FSD and other technologies. How do we negate the nagging thoughts that China has already besten us to shore?

[@kumargudashi]

Yes these kind of discussion we made us decision like stick in tesla investment.. Reality check.. Thanx herbert, Jeff, cern n all ur guests great.. What's going on all the globe?? Thanks for just realized us to seeing things...

[@shepherdsknoll]

@@BruceJohnson-w4h, you should show more reverence for someone’s ideas , especially when his name is clearly stated.

[@keithdow8327]

Thanks!

[@stan4osu]

Seems to me the key differentiator to any model is still the DATA the model trains on - which Tesla owns in spades.

[@jeffreylutz1208]

🎯

[@sharonh2991]

Deepseek’s research paper SAID their costs don’t include research or hardware. To provide the whole picture they need to indicate where their $6m expense begins.

[@jeffreylutz1208]

Yeah agreed WTH… 🤦🏻‍♂️

[@shepherdsknoll]

It’s been reported that they used as many as 50,000 H100s to “distill and mimic “.

[@westcoast8562]

JEFF LUTZ HAS A FINE TRAIN OF THOUGHT.

[@randydiver3076]

I worked on neural network vision for cars in 1993. Getting basic vision to work is easy. Covering ALL the edge cases is HARD. No body is going to beat Tesla at FSD, NOBODY. I am so confident I am all in on Tesla and Tesla LEAPS. Go Elon!!! ❤❤❤

[@aggerleejones200]

Right, because of the data they've collected and continue to collect their miles ahead. Yes, pun intended.

[@Alantj22]

The need for all this data is a reflection of the AI's lack of intelligence. A genuinely smart AI would only need a tiny subset of the available data to train itself.

[@aggerleejones200]

@ nah, you might be right for something like chess which has a finite number of moves or an AI application that doesn't have the potential to kill people, but when you're talking about something that's over 4000 pounds doing high speeds you need to get it to 99.9999% correct and it's always that last .9 that takes a while to get to. This thing has to be next to perfect because if it's released in an accident happens then all that work and energy and money is down the drain because no one is going to use it

[@Coachteach]

@Alantj22 ok, but if that's the case that would come in 3-5 years, by which point tesla already has first mover advantage. Then you compound on that the fact that Tesla's cars are made at a profit, and their manufacturing and scaling prowess... which other company can do all this? Even if Jensen solves a driving package himself and just sells it. How many years until a legacy company can scale a car model for it and release it into the public? Tesla has a 3-5 year moat right now on manufacturing alone, no?

[@tom19482001]

Thank you Jeff and Herbert for this very informative and important video. I'm still all in on Tesla so I liked what you both had to say.

[@ErdalMuhammed-x3z]

Appreciate your transparency ! I'm still holding XAI510K just because of the institutional interest and use. Also, it's tried and tested... something that can't be overlooked.

[@jordinvesting]

No one would ever want a villian version of Jeff using his reasoning super powers for the bad. NO ONE

[@msdm83]

Who ever gets to FSD, competitors won't be long after. Tesla getting the robotaxi at scale could be a moat, in the US at least.

[@hpatelecom1]

Its naive to think that this was done on a low end hardware.

[@josephbradford5930]

LOL, I hope so! It sure could be a hoax to dip the market.

[@MarsOzzie]

Smoke and mirrors. Unless someone can copy it then it will prove they are lying

[@eugeniustheodidactus8890]

they used a pentium laptop

[@gsabic]

@@eugeniustheodidactus8890Commodore 64

[@garlicbread68]

It’s naive to think America is always ahead. The Chinese have proven they ALWAYS catch up and do things cheaper and better. Even if this has been exaggerated by deep seek. Just look at everything around you.

[@eugeniustheodidactus8890]

I would have pulled my hair out long ago if not for Jeff's excellent perspective.

[@Ask-a-Rocket-Scientist]

I've used deepseek for a while. it is open surce. The techniques could accelerate Tesla's AI.

[@nerrade]

Repeal and replace with "Made in the USA" credit sounds about right. Nice analysis. Great insight Jeff.

[@michelangelobuonarroti916]

Yeah, just rebrand what Biden did to create high paying tech jobs so that Trump can now take credit for it.

[@StephanieMassey-Calo-g1y]

Thank you for your videos.... With Trump's session and recent economic shifts, the markets face volatility, especially amid potential rate cuts and tighter bank lending. This environment highlights the importance of a diversified portfolio with stocks and cryptocurrencies to hedge risks. Bitcoin's recent surge to over $93k underlines its role as a resilient asset. Personally, I’ve grown my portfolio highly significantly, thanks to Jinnyfranz expertise, which has been invaluable during these unpredictable times.

[@StephanieMassey-Calo-g1y]

this is her official Telegrams..

[@StephanieMassey-Calo-g1y]

@JinnyFranz.

[@ParmodVerma-v4n]

she simplifies matters, whether it's a market surge or drop; her strategies continuously delivers.

[@LindaHall-o2u]

Everyone needs more than a Basic Income to be Financially Secured in this present time that there's an Economic Decline.

[@Jacobgaviellecabradilla]

Thank you. I have searched her up her telegram I think I am satisfied with her experience.

[@macrumpton]

Everyone is arguing about how it was made and how they are exaggerating how cheap it was to make, and ignoring the big news. It is open source. An open source model that performs as well as OpenAIs top of the line? And you can use it for free? I think a lot of this skepticism is coming from people who invested heavily in Nvidia and OpenAI, because they don't want to believe they were betting on the wrong horse. If this model is more efficient it could indicate that AI does not have to be the environment destroying energy hog that other models are.

[@disp3rsion]

I like how Jeff is smarter than all of the institutional investors who dumped NVIDIA because he read the white paper

[@investsmarternow]

Thank you Jeff and Herbert. Great analysis at a moment where cooler heads need to prevail. This is why I tell people to be an investor and not a trader.

[@aggerleejones200]

Regarding that guy's comment comparing FSD to Waymo, he mentioned that most of the roads are basically useless because people won't use Robo taxi. I'm assuming is what he was thinking… But I have to say if just the average person who owns a Tesla starts using FSD. I think he'll be hooked Even though it's supervised and I have to pay attention. It's taking a lot of stress and pressure off me, in Seattle, where I live there's a lot of traffic and it's nice to just semi zone out while FSD does the job. I've also gone to Portland, Oregon, which is about three hours away and it's great when you're in a city that you don't know where things are that you could just type it in navigation and let it take you there without stressing

[@erktrek]

Awesome, thank you for doing this. You guys rock!

[@NostromoVA]

I am long Tesla. I have a 2025 Model 3 Long Range (Highland hw 4). FSD 13.2.5. It is not ready for unsupervised. I live in rural Virginia. I have to intervene at least 2 times in a 5 mile trip. It consistently attemtps to pull out in front of oncoming traffic when exiting my neighborhood onto a two lane road (with no center lane marker). It also bombs through school zones at 38mph when there is a flashing 25 mph sign. The navigation isn't perfect, either. Outside of that, while in traffic, or on Interstate highways it's fine. I think this will be overcome, maybe with the release that claims a 3x data stack, but despite what I see on videos about urban and suburban areas, I would not trust the current one. It's very good, but not ready.

[@Tomix1980]

yeah. i actually really would wish TESLA (or maybe it´s more the supermacy everywhere guy-) Elon, that claims since 2019 that FSD is basically ready ("right now!"), where it actually does not need to hide, but presenting itself is just quite similar to what elon did in the gaming community with his Top 12 world ranked POE character, where everyone was blaming him for good reasons to be a fraud and a cheater was blocked by Elon Mr Free speech by removing checkmars on twitter (sorry, x), where he just could have been a cool guy liking to game and suck on it, how cares. Look it up , it´s entertaining but also kinda frustration , and can be found on asmon gold or quin69 channels, where people talk a lot about this gaming fiasco. but back to topic and admitingly, "who cares if elons good in gaming?" Obviously he does and can´t step down from this fast train, he kinda himself propelled to this speed it´s on. And so to me at least, the problem is visible everywhere gaming or delivery on FSD So i think we are facing or wil have to face soone problems coming from the way Elon acts when being such an overpromising self presenting guy and silencing other critics like asmon gold about exposing the obvious, i am scared for every engineer that acctually does excellent work at TESLA. I just love how the Model 3 performance drives, love so many things about TESLA, but this whole kinda narcistic thingi of having to be the best in everything and "we already there, or at least in a year" really kills everything for me. I mean, come on guy, having x wifes, x kids, x companies, being one of the best in Quake, being Top 12 player in POE, i mean who would care if you sucked at it and stand up to it, but it´s like the momentum in TESLA stock is build apon this Elon capability to presentation. until it crumbles. Man, i am standing here in the middle, seeing everyone either loving or hating TESLA, ain´t there anymore the healthy , sane middleground? Don´t people wish anymore to seek truth in between all the claims, competition and narcistic movement of leaders and society aswell? I hope we´ll get the corner and do not crash. Greetingz, Marius

[@milesshigh]

Jeff Lutz is the nutz.

[@mhsj]

From any direction that cybercab design is beautiful and sleek. Hope they keep the gold colour - they will be called Gold Cabs.

[@williamwoo866]

I got into an accident by a Waymo. 1-18-25. Herbert Would you want the videos I shot. I have sent all the details the Tesla claims and hopefully get a response. I talked to a couple of people that agree that Waymo with no driver was wrong.

[@KJSvitko]

The NEW Model Y now looks premium inside and out.

[@mnhsty]

It’s a shame you can’t take anything coming out of China at face value. But it does look as if Deepseek may have made an efficiency breakthrough of some sort. It would be good news if that’s true - assuming AI itself turns out to be a good thing(?). My question is: how did Apple verify that this app doesn’t have any safety issues, or did they at all? At the very least, the app does seem to be censored concerning publicly available information about China.

[@Ask-a-Rocket-Scientist]

deepseek doesn't start from scratch. It starts from an already trained model.

[@vico5980]

Nice find! Hope Tesla moves in that direction.

[@mytake3692]

The Chinese were foridden to use high-end chips and thus had to get creative with the chips at hand and get creative with software, and that's what they did.

[@kumargudashi]

Great observation.. They doing from long time.. Copy copy paste.. But they want to compete with US.. So try do every thing to compete with US..

[@NickWainwright6970]

They also are prone to lying……in this case the type and number of chips they used!

[@BencerCourt123]

@@NickWainwright6970 right, US never lie.. remind me of wmd

[@SirHargreeves]

I’m reserving judgment until a third party can replicate R1 using the same amount of GPUs and the open source paper. The claims they make are borderline absurd and feel too good to be true. Claims they used a secret 50k H100 cluster are plausible. In any case, the algorithmic improvements will be adopted by US companies and we power on.

[@marcboucher913]

Dont try to minimize this true advancement.

[@marcboucher913]

You must see what China did.

[@marcboucher913]

Not a treat but an advancement

[@stonkytong]

americans have been trying so hard to stunt chinese potential

[@MarsOzzie]

I call bullshit especially they smuggled in high end GPUs and now they saying they using lower end to get this result

[@ksairman]

DeepSeek did NOT use the newest chips, but one to two generation chips ago. Their algorithms are great!

[@ericdelevinquiere9902]

This is good for Tesla, we all knew that at some point a simpler solution would pan out if this is actually real. Tesla ultimately will benefit from any progress in the field because of their deep connections to the field.

[@rollie5579]

Just got a Model 3, OMG just amazing !!!

[@IndigenousEarthling101]

Gigafactory Mexico is also probably delayed due to Tesla wanting to ramp production of their next generation NV9X vehicle platforms in Texas (and perhaps other existing factories) first.

[@wagnerpaivafernandes]

I love Jeff 😊

[@WashingtonJacksun]

And let me add, I'm a very early adopter, and still waiting for the next update. To make this version work better

[@newworld6474]

DeepSeek doesn't have TESLA video input to train on .... but their methods can save Tesla a lot of money and increase their profit

[@AB-jr9ny]

Lutz putting on a clinic!

[@dsoede]

Whar Jeff is missing is that DeepSeek's approach points to a direction where you don't need so much data. Reinforcement Learning brings intelligence into the learning process.

[@stan4osu]

Saw Hans Nelson on another video. He and Jeff together would be an excellent discussion!

[@jeffreylutz1208]

Hans is excellent. Herbert is too! So many others. We are fortunate.

[@scottcunningham8528]

From a business perspective what is the tactical advantage of releasing this paper. IE market destabilization?

[@royh6526]

It's from a university. Generally they are not concerned about making a profit. It benefits everyone, any market destabilization is just nervus investors who don't understand that this was released as open source free for anybody to use.

[@alexisbono24]

DeepSeek is just a LLM, so a competitor for Grok, but not for FSD. Their new method was to take a fairly simple base LLM then to have it learn without external data how to reason to solve problems without new external data, then to take that model, and distill it onto a smaller model that runs using less capable hardware. I agree with Jeff that this is not as big as is being made out. The media loves sensation, and wall street loves reasons for clients to buy and sell - they just take a cut as the trades go through. Up or down, does not matter.

[@disp3rsion]

"Show me the two million cars that have been gathering data for years" Show me the billions of dollars needed to make an OpenAI competitor. Oh wait

[@trottingwolf]

Deepseek will only accelerate FSD. If it's open source then Tesla can use it. Sure it may allow others to develop a version of FSD sooner, but Tesla is so far ahead on hardware and vehicle design that even if GM had software tomorrow they would still take two years at least to get cameras and FSD computers into cars. Tesla already had the hardware and could start robotaxi tomorrow if they had the software.

[@ElectronRacewayFabricator]

I think Tesla just launched Model 2.5 under everyone’s nose without anyone noticing.

[@bdtang]

V13.x is only available on hw 4. Latest on hw 3 is 12.6.x .

[@didier_777]

Even if this is all true the impact on Tesla is non existent. The AI used for FSD is different than the LLM. Plus you need the data, plus you need the car fleet, plus you need tome to bring it up to speed.

[@thomasquinn4036]

How did we verify this? We know China wouldn't lie?

[@royh6526]

It's been released as open source. This will benefit ALL AI researchers.

[@scottcunningham8528]

I really think, if it looks like it's to good to be true it probably is.

[@GulsahElif-m9w]

Is it too late to buy XAI510K at $0.90?

[@Kuanyin3]

27:40 thanks for the vid. BTW, past tense of cost is cost not costed.

[@simonkristensson3077]

Geniuses don’t get caught lying as frequently as Elon lately. Nothing even mentioned about it here. Very transparent and unbiased reporting guys!😂

[@imaro2358]

Think of the DeepSeek LLM as an OS and FSD as the application. Tesla and other app providers will be fine and a cheaper OS just means cheaper apps. That said, if the OS is commoditized the focus will quickly shift to applications. Lastly, Tesla will lose its FSD lead in China as its FSD will be copied in short order.

[@royh6526]

" as its FSD will be copied in short order." They can't copy the billions of miles of video data that are used for training. If Tesla gave them everything they need, it would be at least 3 years before they had their own version on the road.

[@didier_777]

Tesla insurance needs to get in to NY. Im getting killed by insurance meanwhile my car payments are $340. That doesn't make sense.

[@royh6526]

Tesla has applied to sell auto insurance in all States. Just takes years to get approval.

[@davidfellowes1628]

In credible how some just panic instead of collecting the facts and analyse before acting. The story offered is highly unlikely. Calm children.

[@STxFisherman]

Excellent!

[@xinyangli1724]

The first phase of grief : denial😂😂😂

[@ElectronRacewayFabricator]

Tesla isn’t going to flush current Y inventory. It is now Model 2.5

[@pfang100]

When was the last time Chinese not lied. I would question the reality of how much it cost them. Let’s see their data enter.

[@metatron3942]

It cost $6 million to make, just like the Six Million Dollar Man

[@Vancouver_Island_Guy]

Lol

[@marcusoutdoors4999]

Repeal and replace makes sense, Tesla is a made in America company

[@ivaluska]

Great topic, and great in-depth thoughts about this, guys. In the unlikely event that DeepSeek is everything the Chinese say it is, it sounds like the type of "breakthrough" akin to Elon's ethernet communication trick to get over the 30K server coherence problem - in other words, it's something that will be figured out by Elon and his team. Now, imagine what that workaround will do with over 100K processors

[@PK-tq9xv]

50K H100 GPUs it is a live that it was 2K or 5K classic china startup lie.

[@elnachismo2553]

You should ask, why haven't my current stocks in AI haven't gone up since it isn't as expensive to run today

[@blackspetnaz2]

Ranking does not lie, the tests are real, it is open source and everybody can fact check it. Stop questining and release a better model 😅

[@peterzz4266]

What happened to giga mexico?

[@francoischarbonneau9447]

Ask Trump

[@j23a45m]

If he’s saying he’s v13 it’s Hw4 they don’t have v13 in Hw3 cars yet for Fsd

[@ksairman]

They are condensing and using the existing LLMs to move quickly! Software is winning not the chips

[@vince1229]

How is it that not one of the KZbin stock "experts" mentiioned deepseek until after the crash when they heard it on the news?

[@vicg5323]

I don’t believe what Deepseek claims. And they paid a premium for the H100 that they should not have!

[@luhental]

Regarding potential value of FSD cyber trucks in China, just an FYR- • Gross value: The China e-commerce logistics market is estimated to be worth $16.20 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach $27.70 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 9.29% during the period from 2024 to 2029. • Volume: In 2023, China handled 120 billion parcels. E-Marketer projects that China's retail e-commerce industry will grow further in 2024, reaching $3.56 trillion, which is likely to drive the continuous growth of e-commerce-related logistics volume.

[@luhental]

BTW tried asking DeepSeek these questions from Singapore… found out everyone outside China is banned😢

[@guybenson9191]

How many legacy media companies said deepseek crashed the markets. I was literally laughing so hard hearing this. Let’s create an excuse for taking profits

[@mikeythai]

The Chinese are a poor source of information .

[@darylfoster6133]

I would take anything the Chinese say with a grain of salt. Also, there's a battery credit in the current IRA. It doesn't do much for the consumer, unless Tesla and others are going to pass the credit to the consumer.

[@itsmeGeorgina]

And I would take EVERY SINGLE WORD coming from Trump and Musk as a lie ... yep, every word

[@tekskills]

It's open source just make it better don't panic people lol

[@matthiasgrunwald895]

Tesla has important real world data for AI Deepseekr not.

[@jclive4773]

i thought this initially but China has plenty of Ai cameras on streets not only in China but in the countries who allowed them to build infrastructure projects in Europe/ Africa/ South Murica

[@itsmeGeorgina]

Tesla is piling up all over Europe, nobody wants to be seen in a Tesla, they desperately try to sell their used car,, they drive around in their Teslas with HUGE stickers that says "I bought this car before Elon went crazy"

[@jaydubya9265]

Deepseek crashed the party lol

[@JWG2014]

they have the chips.. ban the function and their product. They broke the export rules, we should not let them profit from it. Also - Nvidia should force some activation and deactivation by region.

[@yourlogicalnightmare1014]

A genuine AI, not the garbage created this far, does NOT need mountains of data 😂. All it needs is the driving manual for the country, and camera eyeballs to see what its doing. You guys clearly dont understand what AI is. You didnt have to drive a billion miles to pass a driving test, and neither would a genuine AI.

[@tobberfutooagain2628]

Tesla needs to make the first gomboc model Y….

[@Stahl42]

Unless we address copyright issues we have now, won't China's AI surpass ours eventually? AI should be able to read/view material just like a Human does.

[@RichardDavenport-h8s]

Deepseek more than likely a red herring 😊

[@randydiver3076]

If President Trump is going to get rid of the IRS then what good will Tax credits be?

[@dan7163]

Replaced with ERS

[@randydiver3076]

@ Yes that is the External Revenue Service. They collect tariffs. Tax credits still won’t help tax payers as there will be no tax without the IRS.

[@2-jb]

Competing pieces of information 😂 Good one Jeff

[@mlhutche]

Wouldn't FSD mean the death of the Chinese auto industry? And most other auto manufacturers.

[@royh6526]

They will be the first to license FSD from Tesla.

[@georgegale6084]

Beware: PRC Propaganda

[@shepherdsknoll]

This is all starting to sound like a PR exercise to show Chinese prowess.

[@tedpert8786]

Remember Japanese cars?

[@tedpert8786]

Will have to prosecute Alexander wang! Trillions lost because of a sob makes a statement that ccp has something that’s better than nvidia? How do I know that this guy didn’t put out a statement to buy the stocks at a discount?

[@FamilyFirstJ]

All facts

[@vvattup]

Washington Post today: An AP-NORC poll last week is the latest among several surveys that have shown Musk’s image deteriorating in recent months, to the point where 36 percent of Americans had a favorable opinion of him and 52 percent had an unfavorable one. That negative 16-point split was down from minus 10 (41-51) last month.

[@defaultHandle1110]

deepseek is still cheaper. They could have spent more, but it’s cheaper for now, risk is they pull the rug either way license or availability, data stealing.

[@charlesrovira5707]

@5:05 The term *Mr Lutz* is looking for to describe *DeepSeek's* judicious crafting and pruning of their knowledge-base is that it is *_elegant._* (†) The model will be far from complete, no edge cases, but iteratively crafting and pruning can take you most of the way. †) Elegant comes from the *Latin* _é légaré,_ _é_ meaning _out_ and _légaré_ meaning _to choose._ (††) Something elegant is something where all the crap has been _out chosen._ ††) Legaré is also at the root of our system of *laws* since they are how we _chose to get along together._

[@dt2526]

😂😂😂 no they just lied.