Buy A Home Now Or Wait For 2024? | Are Home Prices Dropping?

[@LTZ82]

I have worked in institutional credit management for 15 years, and you’ve done everyone a service with this video - great work. We all have fear with home-buying, it’s a large sum of money. No one knows where we are headed, but arm-chair economists are always willing to share an opinion. If you nail the timing, good for you, but don’t let macro conditions be the key driver for a long-term, emotional decision; buy what you can afford. #excellent

[@Manausa]

Thank you Leighton Zema, that is very kind! That should be a quote somewhere on my channel ... don’t let macro conditions be the key driver for a long-term, emotional decision!

[@chrispoyner3338]

"Don't let macro conditions be the key driver for a long-term, emotional decision." This is absolutely money!

[@brianoleson9224]

@@Manausa yeah prices dont drop hardly ever but they have high chance after a historic pandemic coupled with low wage high inflation , food shortages, war and presidents falling off bicycles lets get real atleast own up that we have a decent chance of something similar to 2008 or worse

[@chrisle2674]

If you are a credit expert than you would know banks using a 2 times rule. 2 times you anual pay. Avarge anual salary is 56 thousand. Houses are over valued and are sitting empty. these are facts you 2 can't deny. Homes are going drop by 20 percent wait and see. research is already done.

[@raspberrytea8314]

@@chrisle2674WOW. 20 percent?

[@nobodyspecial891]

Asking a realtor if you should by a home right now is like asking a drug dealer if you should by some crack right now.

[@Manausa]

I appreciate you taking the time to comment NobodySpecial, thank you!

[@tkordik]

LOL true

[@chrisle2674]

facts... most homes are currently over valued. you will start seeing lots of price cuts soon. also add after the housing crash banks are not as friendly handing out loans. Avarge person can't afford to move right now.

[@iancameron3799]

So true. I’ve been looking at houses for 6 months and the listings are being removed and listed again over and over. Huge price cuts each time. In May, My wife wanting a $1.9 million house that is not listed for $1.59. And it will drop from there too 😂

[@transformationofthebride2295]

What goes up must come down!

[@tkordik]

Remember everyone - agents in 2007 were actually telling buyers that "home prices can never go down". None of these people went to prison.

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your wisdom and insight ArkansasWesterner.

[@jaybird7534]

Xi Jinping says that real estate always goes up in China, and if you don't believe it, then we have soldiers in tanks that will convince you of this.

[@jessicabixler1658]

Well when you make 170k and can't get a decent home without house poverty in what was an affordable area something is wrong...

[@Manausa]

100% agree Jessica. I'm reporting what is happening and what is wrong. Home affordability is changing rapidly and it's a bigger problem than the traditional media is believing.

[@ronaldsamontanez8592]

True true true! That's why we hold on until something gives up. Let it crash!

[@mikhailyampolsky2598]

Can you show the chart when 6 trillion dollars were printed last time ? When house prices almost doubled in 1 year ? When inflation were 10% ?

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your opinion Mikhail Yampolsky

[@sinister184]

I don’t quite agree with your assessment and find it misleading. Demand has clearly gone down. You’re seeing houses sit a lot longer than earlier in the year, especially if they’re pushing the price point. This has lead to less bidding wars and crazy over list offers. So maybe prices aren’t going down as much but as rates go up, buyers are still getting better sale prices. Historically low interest rates and lack of supply due to Covid caused this bubble. It’s not going to pop like 2008, but it will correct.

[@Manausa]

Can't quite agree to you're point Sinister184 but I do appreciate you commenting. You wrote "So maybe prices aren’t going down as much but as rates go up, buyers are still getting better sale prices." Prices are not going down in my market, and they are not going down in the overall US market. The RATE at which they are going up is finally slowing though as demand has dropped from lower mortgage interest rates. There is no bubble (a bubble is too much supply) as supply remains near historic lows. I'm keeping an eye on supply to see when/if that changes.

[@hangguy209]

Depending on where you're at. My home i recently bought had 18 offers plus an investor. The demands are there.

[@jasonfernandez5770]

You just eased my mind! I'm within 2 weeks of closing on a house!

[@Manausa]

Congratulations Jason, enjoy!

[@jesse_-]

@@blakejohnson3864 doomsayers: I am going to laugh in your faces so hard when home prices continue to rise. You guys are so snarky and condescending. Zillion bucks you’re a millennial or zoomer, as your foolhardiness and know-it-all tone is a tell. The more you twits act like this, and the more times you’re wrong about everything, the more faith I lose in those generations. It’s just, how many times can you be wrong, and not humbled by it? And no, I am not a baby boomer.

[@jlcain100]

Hopefully you didn’t buy into “date the rate marry the house bs”

[@grownupgaming]

Regarding what might happen in 2023, I think there's still a good chance for a price correction, because never in history have we doubled mortgage rates in such a short amount of time. Combined with never seen before % of homes being bought by institutions. I appreciate you listing the history of prices and rates, but when something has never happened before then we cant be so sure prices wont drop or correct.

[@Manausa]

Thanks GrownUpGaming, I agree that the market of the past three years was crazy. I 100% agree with you that mortgage rates could very well shut down the for sale market, but even non discretionary buyers appear to be able to move the current supply of homes for sale. The discretionary "buyers" will become tenants and further deplete the inventory in the "for rent" market, so again, I don't see a 2023 threat of falling prices. Look to the builders as the big variable. Can they build us into balance or oversupply? Not in 2023. Rates today are still lower than the 50-year average and even lower than the average during my 31 year career. The number of home sales was fewer than the pre-bubble years, and we're coming off of 15 years of the lowest new construction figures that I can find going back to the 1970s. With all that being said, I won't expect prices to drop until I either see the inventory in the "for rent" market or "for sale" market move much higher, both are near all-time lows. Supply and demand will show us when prices will drop.

[@grownupgaming]

@@Manausa Speaking of builders, looking at FRED's HOUST housing starts graph, they seem to be a real forward leading indicator for future real house prices. Feels like they would start building more if they had a positive outlook on house prices. I understand you point that out as a dwindling in future supply, but I see that more of a lack of confidence in future demand. Feels like historical housing starts vs inflation adjusted HPI might be something good analyze, though I havent been able to find such a graph myself.

[@Manausa]

I track HOUST monthly GrownUpGaming. See this on permits? kzbin.info/www/bejne/bJ_aaZqZoM2crZY. Also this on newco: kzbin.info/www/bejne/aXrNZmCDp62feqc

[@riversider681]

Exactly! THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE so you are powerless to make confident predictions about home prices. However the economy has done this before and we can confidently predict a world record CRASH.

[@chrisle2674]

prices are going to go down A. most homes are over valued B. Bank Loans, Banks are not going hand out 500,000 to 800,000 loans to the masses. not going to happen. rulr of thumb is 2 times your anual pay.

[@nerrade]

Helpful info. I think it can be applied just about anywhere in North America right now. Conclusion: Prices are going to continue to go up up up!

[@Manausa]

Thank you Darren and we've come to the same conclusion.

[@busybuzz8122]

You must be realtor or builder hahahahha

[@gvanys]

The problem is right now home prices and rents are not keeping up with income. Noway, home prices will go up because at this point people can't even afford buying a house. We are in a time when the worst neighborhood houses are selling for like over $300,000, let alone a decent neighborhood, which will cost you close to half a million dollars. It's impossible for home prices to go up because people can't afford buying or even renting.

[@Manausa]

I hear you G-Vani, but what happens if Wall Street becomes the largest owner of single-family homes? They can afford to buy and play the long game. There are not enough homes in the US, so investors taking control of more homes is the likely outcome, not falling home prices. People who traditionally would be homeowners won't be able to afford to own, so they will become tenants of Big Business and spend more of their income on rent. It's already happening; if local governments don't step up to solve the housing crisis, we're going to see the end of the American Dream.

[@gvanys]

@@Manausa Wall Street can own all the homes they want, but if renters don't pay rent on those properties, which are useless without generating income for them to maintain it, they will start dumping the houses on the market. People can only spend so much of their income on rent.

[@Manausa]

G-Vani, again, I hear you. But we have a housing shortage. If you won't make your rent payment, you will be evicted. Then where will you live? We have historically low vacancy rates and people need to live somewhere. Why would they dump houses when the typical for-rent property is getting multiple bids from tenants? It will take a construction tsunami to create enough homes for your scenario.

[@jitenmanu6370]

The difference is rising inflation and if interests rates are not brought down soon then the economy will go into depression. Although by definition we are already in recession by having 2 consecutive quarter with declining growth, but government is busy planning for midterm so not acknowledging it.

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your opinion Jiten Manu

[@Zohra186]

I want to buy investment property but interst rate is high what should I do?

[@Manausa]

That's a great question Rashida. The short answer is "it depends on the supply and demand dynamic in your local market." My belief is that mortgage interest rates will go up more and more over time, and so will rents (unless you are in a rare, over-supplied market). The Fed is fighting inflation and will raise rates several more times. While fighting inflation, wage inflation will continue higher because the minimum wage laws in many states are still going up at unprecedented rates (voter mandated, so the Fed can't stop it). Key in on what your State is doing with the minimum wage and supply and demand. I would not be surprised to see today's rates be the lowest available for several years. I hope this helps Rashida, best of luck to you.

[@avenger1212]

Nice. Now put wage growth on your annual growth rate charts and explain to me how people will be able to afford (and fuel) this never stopping price growth.

[@Manausa]

Did you see this avenger1212?: kzbin.info/www/bejne/rF6oZYl8fJ2snaM.

[@grownupgaming]

3:02 Theres a research report called, Interest rates and house prices in the United States and around the world, that finds: rising rates = rising house prices, but rising rates = lower house prices 2 years later. Basically the housing market has inertia/momentum.

[@Manausa]

Thank you GrownUpGaming, but I've actually done a few deep-dives on home prices over the past 100 years. Basically, prices have only come down after the great depression, prior to WWII, and after the great recession. Check this video out, it shows the real history of home prices in the US: kzbin.info/www/bejne/qpO2lJ2lfrSbg5o

[@grownupgaming]

@@Manausa yeah good points there. The study was using real aka inflation adjusted house prices. So I dont think your deep-dives and the study are in conflict. I just wanted to point out it does look counter-intuitive when you look at the exact same instant in time (and could lead one to the wrong conclusion: higher rates=higher prices), but it makes a lot more sense when you think of it as cause (higher rates) and effect (lower inflation adjusted prices) with a two year lag in between them.

[@Manausa]

That's awesome you mention inflation-adjusted house prices GrownUpGaming, I'm going to be doing a video on that soon to show how home affordability has been (is) tanking. Should be out in a few weeks.

[@rickyluu2281]

Hey Joe. I appreciate your analysis. Agree on most points, I think it will be more precise if you integrate an affordability index relative to income chart with the years you shown. Your chart is showing prices moving up even with higher cost of interest rate but I think we should account for the % increase in affordability relative to income. This will give us a clearer picture. Just my 2 cents. Thanks.

[@Manausa]

Great point Ricky. I'll try to work that in a future video.

[@MartinsMusic]

Thank you for the video. It definitely had great insights. I do have to mention that In the South Florida market pretty much every home has had a price decrease in the last few months. One home I was monitoring in Ft Lauderdale dropped 80k in 1 month. Another I actually went to in open house just dropped 15k in 1 month. I think in this market and all the markets that saw crazy appreciation will have a pretty big price correction. Meaning prices will continue to drop in those markets until they normalize. Then they will continue to go up realistically after that as you said.

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your experience MartinsMusic. We're seeing that here too .... but those are asking prices right? I am seeing signs of declines, but it is contrary to the supply and demand imbalance. I think it's all demand-side related (shock for doubled mortgage interest rates). When the non-discretionary movers arrive, there's not many homes to be found. When demand starts returning, I fear that price explosion will return too.

[@michaelwww]

Monthly mortgage payment vs income is on all time high. Consumers are squeezed to the max. The house prices in September 2022 are already down compared to June 2022 and they continue going down.

[@Manausa]

I thought the same about payments versus income Michael ... but that's not true: kzbin.info/www/bejne/rF6oZYl8fJ2snaM

[@gatorgator7728]

Ppl aren't dumb. You're either going to pay the seller his or her higher price, the banks their higher rates or the landlord's higher rent

[@Manausa]

Well said Gator, Gator, that seem to be where we stand today.

[@sendeth]

I know this video is about 3 months old And I am in a different market but I am seeing $50,000 price cuts

[@Manausa]

Sendeth, what market? There are many where asking prices are dropping ... and some where sales prices are dropping. A lot of shock in the market right now, the real question is what is the supply and demand dynamic locally?

[@Bluewh174]

Very informative video, what’s your advice to buyers signed contract with builders to close in early 2023 and the interest rate is keep rising!

[@Manausa]

Hey MM, thanks for the feedback. There are too many variables for each person to have a blanket opinion on your question. 1. What does your Realtor think? 2. What does your contract allow for? 3. How does your contract handle rising or falling material costs? 4. What did your lender provide for locking in on a rate? I could go on and on. If you are nervous, seek local help and guidance. Best of luck MM.

[@Bluewh174]

Hi Joe, I believe the new home builders never negotiate once contract is signed and also they don’t lower price if market will crash or interest rate goes high!

[@Manausa]

Again, I recommend you seek local guidance MM, best of luck!

[@joebiggs135]

Very well put

[@Manausa]

Thanks, I appreciate that Joe Biggs

[@ronaldsamontanez8592]

I see home price reductions in Sacramento region in July 2022. Does this mean in a year or so the home prices will increase during the coming recession based on the report you presented? Interest rates are high. Home prices are high. Median income in Sacramento is $55,000. It is impossible to own a decent home in my area nowadays! That's why the best for us is to wait until perhaps next year summer 2023. Let the housing market crash to prepandemic levels.

[@Manausa]

Are you seeing home prices fall? Or are you seeing home sellers reduce their asking price because they hit the market too high? Very different events Ronald. We've seen the latter here all during the crazy rush. What will you do next Summer if prices are 15% higher and interest rates are at 8% and rents are 15% higher? I 100% agree this market is broken and affordability has tanked, I'm just concerned that prices won't fall due to the shortage created by the lack of building for the past 15 years.

[@busybuzz8122]

The seller hit the price high but no seller lower their price before june 2022. I somewhat find this youtube explanation totally biased!!! So representative of real estate corp. In the long run, the home price always increase, yes. But not increase 50% in 2 years!!!! This is what happen the last year and this is what people say will have correction. I see greedy builders and seller put a price around $300,000 above appraisal value of $575,000. It sold early 2022 for $930,000. End of may 2022, Two house down listed for $950,000 but settled for $875,000. You see example of cool off? I think the market will cool off towards end of this year and even more next year. I don’t think it will go below “the natural projection of 5% increase each year”. If you see the home price for the last 5 years you can draw a trend on the graph. That is natural curve I am talking about. The last 1.5 year is anomaly and it should go back to its natural curve which is still much below the current price. That is what people waiting for. No one really expect to go to 2009 price hahhahah. Realtor… realtor…. Buy buy buy …

[@brianoleson9224]

@@Manausa there is no shortage people need to be truthful there is plenty of physical homes for citizens there held by investors but unlike 2010-2021 we are now in an era with high rates and recession there profits are so low we are going to sell many sell for the 1st time in a decade

[@brianoleson9224]

ronald pre pandemic $ is to high 2018 is to high to be honest normal appreciation homes should have rose in sacramento $50,000 roughly but they rose 350,000 $ i would not buy until median home price is 200-275,000$ at most wait until mid 2024 if u need a place to live buy a $50,000 mobile home and sit in it temporary

[@outthetrunkfilms]

You're not telling the truth. I'm currently seeing price decreases on 50% of houses listed on the MLS.

[@Manausa]

What planet are you reporting from BRE?

[@busybuzz8122]

Hey Joe, what planet are you living in???

[@brianoleson9224]

@@busybuzz8122 we went thru a pandemic hes on mars. the last time we had a pandemic we had a depression im going to be conservative and just say a big recession like 08 hes right home prices hardly ever drop but pandemics dont happen hardly ever ether and how often have we had house bidding? we also have never experienced low wage high inflation 1970s inflation had bigger wages

[@iancameron3799]

Housing prices are dropping. All you have to do is look at the property history and see all the listing removals and price corrections. The builders and realtors are playing games, which is how it goes. Just wait and you will save money!

[@03seleana]

You can tell who didn't really learn about supply and demand.

[@mchristr]

There is no way 15 or 20 percent annual appreciation can continue. The current prices have outdistanced the incomes of a huge number of Americans and the Fed will continue to raise rates to tamp down inflation. Flippers and institutional investors will bail first and when individual buyers finally smell blood, they will wait for a bargain. BTW, I check the listings daily.

[@Manausa]

Agreed on appreciation Miles, and I think it is wise that you check the listings daily. From what I'm reading, a lot of the institutional investors are buy and hold; doing it for the lease cash flow. Time will tell on that. Due to low builder activity though, I just think that the outcome will be institutional buyers taking over, turning a lot of would-be buyers into tenants. Prices will only come down when there are more sellers than buyers...

[@loganmason0201]

But the FED can't hike the rates much more. That will cause a really bad recession and more national debts (31 trillions now)🙂

[@stevebaughman1163]

@@Manausa There will be more sellers than buyers very soon (by the end of 2022, I'd say). Very little is moving in my city! DoM goes up a day every day or so.

[@billwhitaker8021]

A lot of Opendoor properties are selling for much less than they bought them for. Most of homes they buy are crap. Last one I went in had been smoked in so bad, we left.

[@billwhitaker8021]

Black Knight investors have stopped buying in most markets. Most markets are now overvalued…lenders are telling homeowners to grab their equity while they can!

[@robertedwards3822]

Its regional. I live in Florida and we are being overrun with New Yorkers and even Californians trying to escape the ridiculous red state regulations and cost of living driven by the state government. I expect demand to taper off but still will see lots of demand. Also, my wife is a new home sales consultant and her builder had a huge layoff because home sales far outpaced land development so her builder has no lots to build on.

[@Manausa]

Very true on regionality Robert. Here's why builders have no lots ... kzbin.info/www/bejne/b5uypXmQbdiBjck

[@Sonofawildanimal]

Hell yea. Just bought a house. $500 per sq Ft and walking distance to the ocean in FL

[@Manausa]

Congratulations on your purchase Harold.

[@chrisle2674]

This didn't age well come to find out homes are currently over valued. Prices in homes could drop as much as 20 percent in the next few months. its simple math if your home is worth 2 times what you paid for it right now its over valued. Zillow is showing lots of homes sitting on the marked for months with price cuts.

[@Manausa]

So if I bought a home 30 years ago and it doubled in value, it is over valued? I shared data, you share "lots of homes ... price cuts." Not very convincing Chris.

[@videogarage9221]

Home prices are already shifting down ! There is nothing to rebuttal, argue, or investigate. I really don't understand the need for this video. The real estate market is plainly exhausted in many markets. To argue that prices will continue to rise in the near future is ludicrous.

[@Manausa]

I appreciate you sharing your unsubstantiated opinion VideoGarage. Check back here in a year and let's see where the market has moved.

[@busybuzz8122]

This video is to support real estate business! The tone is so realtor to me hahahahha.. Just wait till next year. Correction is going on right now. I am laughing when I saw the seller bring down the price 50-75,000 after 2 weeks in the market now. They missed the tide already. The game has changed now. Price slowly going down… to what level? I don’t know. In my projection, at the best scenario it will go down to 2019. But the worse scenario it will go down even more. Then people start buying then the price slowly increase again at its natural rate… not 40-58% a year. No way!

[@03seleana]

Yes come back and let us know! LOL

[@pollyanna8801]

Here we are in Dec 2022 and housing prices gave begun to drop.

[@Manausa]

Depends where you are Polly Anna. Zillow reports rising prices in 99% of markets year-over-year and 15% Month-over-month ... you must be in California .... kzbin.info/www/bejne/b5iZk3xvr5iondU

[@pollyanna8801]

@@Manausa I'm in Central to East TN.

[@backrack01]

​@Joe Manausa Real Estate zillow has flat out said that their "zestimates" are purposely over inflated.

[@xtHeEd1x]

great video!! earned a subscriber! Very disturbing for the future of housing affordability but it's better to know than to remain in ignorance. hoping to buy a home in the next 3 years, let's see what the prices are then...

[@Manausa]

Thank you tHeEd1, it's going to get expensive.

[@christiansantiago6902]

Get a home I can afford. Better than renting 😂 gotcha . Thank for the video

[@Manausa]

You got this!

[@FireManTTSOM]

Very good….thank you.

[@Manausa]

Thank you Larry for taking the time to comment!

[@sunild6715]

Looks purposely avoid what happed 2007, housing market went down in 2007. And every 10 to 15 years there was a dip.

[@Manausa]

Not true Sunil D. I can't cover everything in every video and keep them short. Watch this and then explain to us how "every 10 to 15 years there was a dip." That is just not true. kzbin.info/www/bejne/qpO2lJ2lfrSbg5o

[@diegolara4202]

We bought in Mid 2021 at 2.99 and home price was 249k. Today it is at 310k and over 5 percent interest. It would have cost us about 700 more a month to buy the same home. We would not be able to buy now. These market is going to crash people they are just suffering from recency bias. They ignore history and focus on "the crash!" Because it makes sense to them or because they failed to buy when it was affordable.

[@Manausa]

So true Diego Lara. The housing market is in sad shape, prices are untouchable by more and more people each month.

[@busybuzz8122]

In my area, a house in end of 2020 and first half of 2021 cost around 420,000 but in second half of 2021 to first half of 2022 very similar house sold for 630,000. Now given the hikes of interest rate, the buyer ignore it when the rate reach 5.25 but it cool down the market immediately when they announce nearly 6.00 to borrow from bank. Since first week of june, a house bought in 2013 for 430,000 and at 2021 appraisal value it for 417,000 list their price for 699,000 !!! A month later after twice weekend open houses, they remove from listing due to no offer. Just 2 weeks prior, there was a sister house to this in the same neighbourhood listed for 575,000 sold for 630,000!!! The market cool down now but not done yet. Many example like this in my area.

[@busybuzz8122]

Check again the value of your house at the end of this year diego. Don’t cry because you live in it and plan to stay at least 10 years there.

[@skytech5585]

I think this guy is bias he wants people to belive house prices will not go down when we are already in a recession I am giving him a 👎😂for not being honest don’t listen to this man he needs to sell to make money don’t listen to any one making money off selling 🏡

[@Manausa]

Skytech, show me the evidence that there is ANY sign that home prices are coming down? Have you ever looked at a graph of home prices for 130 years? Home prices RARELY come down. I agree that our economy is bad shape, but it is inflation that scares me, not falling prices. If you actually believe home prices are about to fall, check this video out, it might change your mind: kzbin.info/www/bejne/qpO2lJ2lfrSbg5o

[@busybuzz8122]

Agree skytech …. Asking realtor is it time to buy is the same like asking drug dealer is it time to take on drugs?

[@03seleana]

He facts check. What are you doing saying things off the top of your head?

[@CaptainHookhatesBooks]

Pulled the trigger with 5% fixed rate. No crash only a cool off then back up slowly.

[@Manausa]

Congrats on your new home Fue.

[@Manausa]

And what will you be thinking in November Tillery Innovations, when prices are another 5% higher and interest rates (possibly) in the 8% range and inflation is taking over. Rents are exploding, are you renting? Unless you live in a house that you own, you won't be immune to the near hyper-inflation that is coming.

[@busybuzz8122]

I agree with @Fue thao

[@busybuzz8122]

Joe manausa real estate. I hope people don’t follow your advice! Buy now when the price is normal? Of course! The price rig ht now is not normal. The people who bought house in first half of 2022 start seeing their house now value 30,000-75,000 less in my area. The price now still 40% higher than appraisal BUT it is lower that it WAS !!!! Stop manipulating people by showing long term chart of home price. There will be correction and everyone who is understand the situation and wise enough will WAIT and ENTEr at the correction time even eith HIGHER interest rate. Fair?

[@stevebaughman1163]

@@Manausa Rents are dropping in my city. Many new cant-sell houses are now available for rent.

[@Michael-ne5te]

I think your videos should stay in your area. We are in the Phoenix/Tucson area. If we applied your criteria, we would not be seeing numerous homes that have sat for months and have gone through or will be going through price reductions. The days of multiple offers and waiving contingencies are over. Our current (as of the writing of this response) is a downward spiral for overvalued homes and quickly the market has shifted from seller to buyer. Thanks for your input, but it is regional and outdated.

[@Manausa]

You are right that real estate is local Michael, and the US market overall is important to know too. Local economics will always drive local supply and demand, but the national look is important as it will often be a very strong evidence of how a local economy is going to move. For example, the Fed raising its rate happens nationally but is felt locally. Thanks for taking the time to comment Michael.

[@brianlewis5360]

This from a real estate broker. Do home prices go down in a recession? Oh. Yes they do. YoY stats don’t tell the correct tale. We’ll find out who’s right very soon.

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your opinion Brian Lewis

[@aldolente7257]

You skipped the years when housing prices dropped. Where are 2008 and 2009?

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your opinion Al Dolente. I didn't skip anything Al, the table showed how home prices changed when interest rates rose. They did not rise in 2008 and 2009. If you want to see a video that shows what home prices have done (regardless of how interest rates changed), this one covers the past 130 years: kzbin.info/www/bejne/qpO2lJ2lfrSbg5o

[@aldolente7257]

@@Manausa I would strongly advise against seniors buying now. It took nearly 8 years to recover from the 2008 crisis. Some people can not wait out the years it will take to recover from the pending price drop. You are stating it always is a good deal to buy a home. That is true if you stay on with the home for over 10 years

[@03seleana]

He didn't skip it. That seems to be all folks focus on instead of fact checking, they just bring up what happened without really understanding.

[@Manausa]

📺 Subscribe To The Joe Manausa Real Estate Channel and Get More Housing Market Reports, Listings and Real Estate Marketing Tips, and answers to your frequently asked questions: jmre.ws/tube 📰 Subscribe To The Tallahassee RE Newsletter - jmre.ws/news 📘 Get the DIGITAL MARKETING BOOK written by a small business owner, for small business owners! jmre.ws/a77gy

[@harryknuckles3667]

Until all the houses being built hit the market correction is coming .

[@Manausa]

Great name Harry. All the homes hitting the market immediately we definitely crash it I just don’t see how everything that’s in permitting can get to the market even in the next three years time will tail check back in six months you might be surprised at how few homes of hit the market

[@MrAKjosh]

I politely disagree with you. Zillow just sold homes at a loss. Redfin is laying off employees. Mortgage applications are at a 22 year low. We are currently experiencing longer “on market” time. Inventory is increasing nation wide. Energy cost has increased by 100% and may go even higher. We are on the verge on economic crisis not yet seen in our lifetime. Everyone on Wall Street has been talking about this. We all positioned for this. Look at the Dollar Currency index (DXY) charts. That’s cash on the sidelines. Ready to go… after! 🥂 See you in 2024-2025 the buy opportunity of a lifetime. I’ll be buying every house I can. Have a great day!

[@Manausa]

Thank you for the kind rebuttal MrAkJosh. Here's a few thoughts: Zillow's model was poor, so they quickly got out of the buying-houses aspect of their business model. Redfin is laying off employees because it sees unit sales dropping for the next five years (as do I). Mortgage applications are lower because rates are higher (has happened every time rates have risen). I agree on the remaining stated facts, except real estate prices won't drop. That's the whole point about inflation, everything moves higher. It takes high supply and low demand for prices to drop. Supply is still low. I believe that many people who believe that home prices come down regularly are suffering from recency bias. Check this video out, it might change your mind: kzbin.info/www/bejne/qpO2lJ2lfrSbg5o

[@stevebaughman1163]

@@blakejohnson3864 Agreed. All realtors can make data look like "it's a great time to buy!" (Even 2007 was "great" to them). But covid, bailouts, artificial low rates, no-eviction moratoriums changed all that. Why housing went up...we know. How it can possibly stay that high----this video does NOT explain

[@kevinmilligan9555]

Thank you, Joe. I think this is one of your most informative (and pertinent) videos to date. There are many many many Tallahassee buyers and sellers out there that are riding the fence on making a move because they think "what goes up must come down" or ""the bubble is going to burst any day!". These people are obviously uninformed on the data. Nobody has a crystal ball, but as you pointed out -- the data doesn't not suggest that will happen (in fact quite the opposite is expected). I have customers that wouldn't pull the trigger in January, and now those same customers are shopping for inferior homes at higher prices than they were looking at just 5 months ago. Also -- large Wall Street funds are buying up as much residential real estate as they can get their hands on -- what does that tell you?

[@Manausa]

Thanks Kevin. Yeah, we were hearing about falling prices three years ago. People who purchased back then have picked up about 25% in equity and are enjoying incredibly low mortgage payments. Nothing on the horizon shows prices dropping until supply imbalance is corrected, and that is not happening any time soon.

[@jessicabixler1658]

The average life of a hedge fund it 3 years...

[@Manausa]

Jessica, look to see the "corporatization" of housing. It happened in Student housing starting 20 years ago, now their going after single-family homes. Amazon did to retail what these funds are going to do to housing.

[@jaybird7534]

Xi Jinping says that real estate never goes down in China, and if you don't believe it, then we have soldiers in tanks that will convince you.

[@krishnatejaism]

Median Home Price across USA will go down by 20% soon

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your beliefs Krish, but I suspect you might be suffering from recency bias. Check this video out, it might change your mind: kzbin.info/www/bejne/qpO2lJ2lfrSbg5o

[@kevinmilligan9555]

I suppose its possible...but based on what data, Krish?

[@erhardwoodsflooring4662]

Thank you so much to make it very easy to understand what’s exactly happening with the housing market…

[@Manausa]

Thank you ERHARDWOODS FLOORING, that is very kind!

[@Pragmatist1st]

Real estate market: “We know we’re overcharging you, but FU, pay me. We know you can’t afford it, but FU, pay me. We know you’re not making any more money, who cares. FU, pay me.” This is hard to hear. What is the world coming to?

[@Manausa]

Agreed BYNK. Consolidation of all industries (including homes) is taking all the wealth and putting it into very few hands. That's why I'm a big advocate of owning what you can in real estate, it will help you maintain and grow wealth.

[@garyglenn1445]

You buy a house right now you will regret it in 6-12 months the year over year data does not lie.I will as many others will walk into your neighborhood this time next year an I will buy the same home you bought right now for 40 to 50% less than what you are going to pay for it today. Not all areas in the US will have this problem it all depends on where you buy but most will crash. There is a couple in my town here in the North West who was about to close on there new home they had been waiting for 9 months to be built an there was the same exact home make an model right down the street around the corner from there new home that the developers were selling for 60,000 dollars less an they asked about it an the developers said we are not dropping the price an they backed out of the contract an did not buy. If anyone tells you the housing market is going to be ok right now in the near future they are Wrong so don't screw yourself.

[@Manausa]

As you said Gary each market is unique to itself. But overall I would bet you everything I could beg borrow or steal that we will not see a 40% decline in home prices in the US even over the next three years little in the next year there’s just nothing in the supply chain indicate that could happen

[@loganmason0201]

You are delusional 😄 House price may drop 10%, but 50% only happened in case of economy totally collapsed or usa going to ww3 with china and russia

[@christinasnow3995]

I understand. However, you need to also include the fact that the Glass-Stegal Act was basically erased by Clinton. The fact is that I am glad that you have provided this data. Home prices now are dictated by investors. It's truly hard for people to buy a home for the middle class. Especially if they are single.

[@Manausa]

I'm seeing the middle class getting squeezed harder and harder every day Christina, thank you for adding to the discussion.

[@davidmack4495]

has anyone changed their minds yet????this video is from july...it's now october......so many huge markets are taking a hit, and I feel this is just the beginning......whoever buys now is a fool....it's gonna tank....it's already started. Whoever bought in june/july in certain markets have lost a bunch of their equity. When desperate builders are doing massive price cuts and incentives, the writing's on the wall... it will bleed over to the existing home market.

[@Manausa]

Thanks for adding your thoughts David. I encourage you to see my next Zillow update coming up on Tuesday 10/25/2022. It will show you something about home prices you are not hearing.

[@daytondave3034]

"data & evidence" what a concept.

[@Manausa]

Hey Dave, great to see you back again.

[@ontologos5768]

Wait out the market. Never buy on the high end of it.

[@Manausa]

What do you do if you have to move Onto Logos? This is about shelter, not just investing. Rents are soaring. Prices have soared (and will move higher). Do you even know how often home prices have dropped over the past 130 years? -> kzbin.info/www/bejne/qpO2lJ2lfrSbg5o

[@ontologos5768]

@@Manausa I'm not referring to exigent circumstances but elective purchases. We're in a recession on the cusp of a real estate and automotive downturn. Many companies are forecasting layoffs for 2023... a market correction is coming. Why is my advice not sound, again?

[@Manausa]

First of all Onto Logos, thank you for adding to the discussion with your comments! Real estate is local, and many locations on the West Coast are experiencing price declines. The other 86% of the country is dealing with limited supply. Homes are not stocks. Watch kzbin.info/www/bejne/qpO2lJ2lfrSbg5o and take in just how rare price declines have been at the national level. I believe home affordability is going to get worse (right now, it's about the same as 1991 when you factor in wage inflation). Interest rates are going higher. Rents are going higher. Costs are going higher. Inflation is real. Watch the video and you'll understand my point of view. Thanks again Onto.

[@SG-zs4lb]

This is typical cherry picking data. Please show comparable year ranges not your fanciful choosing of year ranges to "prove" your narrative. I am no crash predictor, just saying your analysis is fake

[@Manausa]

Not sure I understand SG, I provide information on the past 30 years (plus my other videos go back 130 years) on home prices. That's "Cherry Picking?"

[@littin3671]

It cannot rise as income is not rising. Who is going to afford 3200$ mortgage payment? A 4 bed 3 bath is 450k.Almost half a million

[@Manausa]

I 100% agree about affordability Littin, but I disagree about "income not rising." Have you tried to hire anybody lately? I am amazed at how few employee-candidates are available and what they're current salary demands are. I've hired people for the past 30 years, this is the toughest employment market (for organizations hiring, not for employees) that I have ever seen.

[@03seleana]

It's going to happen. Come back next year and let us know how you're doing.

[@Tricia2023]

Not true Home prices are falling

[@Manausa]

They are Tricia1964 ... in a minority of cities. kzbin.info/www/bejne/qX-3hWOAlJuona8 Are you in California?

[@Tricia2023]

@@Manausa No I’m in florida Sarasota 😎

[@NGMountains]

Real estate listing agents are directly responsible for the increase in housing prices. It's greed there is no big secret to anything here.

[@Manausa]

That's an interesting theory Bill. How so?

[@03seleana]

you should fact check instead of just saying things off the top of your head.

[@billwhitaker8021]

I wouldn't listen to this guy a realtor no less. LOL...Does he also have the winning lottery numbers?

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your opinion Bill Whitaker

[@twicv912]

Like your common sense. Not like those other doom gloom KZbinrs they’re so dramatic

[@Manausa]

Thank you TWIC V, I appreciate the feedback.

[@vonfields6889]

Wrong not in asheville n.c

[@Manausa]

OK, thanks for sharing that about Asheville Von.

[@phillB]

Wait!

[@Manausa]

Thanks Phillip.

[@angelarogers3137]

I don't think so....sorry

[@Manausa]

ok

[@dannycai386]

Let me stop you right there. show me the case of interest rate jump from zero to 5.6%? let me help you to answer your own question. WAIT!!!

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your opinion Danny. I'm not so sure I understand what you mean about interest rates from zero to 5.6%?

[@linofernandez4457]

not aging well

[@Manausa]

not sounding bright

[@Sullivanserves]

All that past data you are referencing is irrelevant for today. One simple basic overwhelming reason just one would be the national debt. Lift your eyes and look upon it and stop looking at the chart that they’ve made for everyone to follow. Or don’t

[@Manausa]

History is full of people who did not heed the lessons of the past. The past data is our future.

[@03seleana]

So ignorant. It is so relevant. Where do you get you data and or lack of facts.

[@moguaii]

Your children have lot of baby ? No. Non you have thé answer about real estate price

[@Manausa]

Not sure I understand what you are saying bertrand Bertrand.

[@lalumondaniel907]

you are cheting peple

[@Manausa]

How so Lalumon? I'm providing data, you are providing opinion. Come back in a year and let's see who was correct.

[@brianoleson9224]

@@Manausa takes more then a year you should see whats unfolding by mid 2024 . your laughing at these comments cause you know your bsing did you price in a great depression by the way? it sounds crazy but so is a pandemic wearing masks at walmart right? we had to do it

[@harperdarrington4462]

How does racism, (as always capitalism,) and white flight factored into your equations?

[@Manausa]

They don't.

[@joebiggs135]

Why do you think Blanks have a right to White people?