Buy TLT Now? | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

[@DiamondNestEgg]

💎 Get our popular bond course bundle & save $80: www.diamondnestegg.com/home#_paa2isucf 💎 Bond Beginners (our foundational-level bond course): www.diamondnestegg.com/bond-beginners 💎 Bond Masters (our intermediate-level bond course): www.diamondnestegg.com/bond-masters 💎 And join our super-supersaver membership for regular market updates & monthly live member Q&As kzbin.info/door/nexoc6tvesvcCEzZhmI-Agjoin >>>>>>>>>> WATCH NEXT >> Our Bond Courses vs KZbin Membership | Which Is Right For You: kzbin.info/www/bejne/fmbLZXivnZWboNE >> Bond Beginners Course Sneak Peak | I-Bonds vs TIPS: kzbin.info/www/bejne/q4mzq5WgmpaaaKc >> Bond Masters Course Sneak Peak | How To Build A Bond Ladder: kzbin.info/www/bejne/pmqTenejjdNkb9U >>>>>>>>>> Here is the overview for Bond Beginners: 1. Bond Basics What A Bond Is & How A Bond Works Why Invest In Bonds New Issue vs Secondary Market Bonds Interest Rates & Bond Prices Current Yield & Yield To Maturity Always Remember This! Buying At Par, Above Par & Below Par Different Types Of Bonds Wrap-Up 2. The Risks Of Bond Investing Seven Key Bond Risks Credit Risk Interest Rate Risk Reinvestment Risk/Call Risk Inflation Risk Liquidity Risk Currency Risk & Country Risk Bond Risk Mitigation Strategies Wrap-Up 3. US Treasuries Overview What Are US Treasuries Why Invest In Treasuries Where Can You Buy Treasuries How Are Treasuries Taxed Wrap-Up 4. Treasury Bills What Are Treasury Bills (T-Bills) When Do T-Bill Auctions Happen Where Should You Buy At Auction Auto-Roll When Buying At Auction Where To Find Recent Auction Results High Rate vs Investment Rate Reopening Auctions Cash Management Bills (CMBs) Buying & Selling On Secondary Market Wrap-Up 5. Treasury Notes & Bonds What Are Treasury Notes & Bonds When Do Auctions Happen Buying Treasury Notes & Bonds Auction High Yield vs Interest Rate Floating Rate Notes (FRNs) Treasury Zeros (STRIPS) Wrap-Up 6. TIPS (Inflation-Protected) What Are TIPS When Do TIPS Auctions Happen Nominal vs Real Yields Negative Yields How Do You Adjust TIPS For Inflation Taxes On Phantom Income Secondary Market Liquidity Wrap-Up 7. I-Bonds (Inflation-Protected) What Are I-Bonds How Does I-Bond Interest Work I-Bonds vs TIPS The Annual I-Bond Limit Wrap-Up 8. Agency Bonds The Universe Of Bonds What Are Agency Bonds How Are Agency Bonds Taxed Treasuries vs Agencies Who Might Want To Consider Agencies Yield-To-Call & Yield-To-Worst Where Can You Buy Agency Bonds Wrap-Up 9. Municipal Bonds Our Bond Universe Gets More Complex What Are Municipal Bonds How Safe Are Munis How Are Munis Taxed The De Minimis Rule Social Security & Medicare Premiums Treasuries, Agencies & Munis Who Might Want To Consider Munis Wrap-Up 10. Corporate Bonds Our Bond Universe Is Complete What Are Corporate Bonds How Safe Are Corporates Corporate Bond Hierarchies Five Key Features Of Corporate Bonds How Are Corporates Taxed Treasuries vs Corporates, Etc. Who Might Want To Buy Corporates Wrap-Up >>>>>>>>>> Here is the overview for Bond Masters: 1. Stocks vs Bonds Historical Performance Are Bonds Really Less Volatile Why Invest In Bonds Accumulation vs Decumulation Allocation of Stocks vs Bonds Wrap-Up 2. Which Bonds Might Be Right For You Treasuries & Other Types of Bonds Nominal vs Real Yields Inflation vs Non-Inflation-Protected Taxable vs Tax-Advantaged Accounts Wrap-Up 3. Bond Ladders & Other Bond Strategies Normal vs Inverted Yield Curve What Is A Bond Ladder 5 Important Bond Laddering Questions Laddering When Rates Are Rising Laddering When Rates Are Falling Laddering When Rates Are Uncertain What Is A Bullet What Is A Barbell Wrap-Up 4. Holding to Maturity vs Selling Early Why Hold to Maturity When To Sell Early Before Maturity Tax Implications Of Selling Early Wrap-Up 5. Individual Bonds, Bond Funds, Etc. Why Buy Individual Bonds Why Buy Bond Funds Bond Fund Considerations Key Bond Fund Concepts CDs vs Treasuries Other High-Yield Investments Wrap-Up 6. Our B.E.S.T. Model Portfolios By Age Our B.E.S.T Model Portfolios By Age Model Portfolios In The Industry B.E.S.T Model Portfolio Difference How Much Do You Need To Retire? How I Use The Rules of 100, 110, & 120 B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (20s) B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (30s & 40s) B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (50s & 60s) B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (70s+) Wrap-Up 7. The Decumulation Phase What Is The Decumulation Phase? Bear Markets & Recessions What Can You Do In Bad/Bear Markets Decumulation Tax Considerations The 4% Rule The Bucket Strategy The Flooring Approach Jen’s Bucket Strategy With A Twist Wrap-Up >>>>>>>>>> SOURCES & FOLLOW-UP VIDEOS FOR TODAY'S VIDEO: Individual Bonds vs Bond Funds Video: kzbin.info/www/bejne/e4PIhphuqtmqp80 __________ www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf www.google.com/finance/quote/TLT:NASDAQ www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/ home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics www.fidelity.com/ >>>>>>>>>> Thanks for visiting our personal finance channel! We hope this content will help fast-track your financial journey! Everyone's financial journey is different. 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[@ciao4two]

I rather concentrate on the 1-4 month T-Bills as long as they continue paying @ 5+%....been doing this for almost 2 yrs...THANKS to Jenn!

[@LouisHansell]

First - you do a great job informing us about the Treasury market and how we should invest in Treasuries. Let me contribute some technical analysis to this discussion. TLT closed today at 92.52. On July 20, 2020 - almost exactly 4 years ago - TLT closed at 170. 170! TLT has declined quiet a bit since then. Today, TLT is rising above its 40-day and 200-day moving averages. A close above 94 would be a breakout on the TLT P&F chart. These are indications of a favorable buying area for TLT. TLT would have no resistance (after breaking 94) until 98. That would be a capital gain of 6%+ on top of the 3.5% or so coupon. Your videos have encouraged me to use short-term bills, and I have been getting 5% for some time. But the T-Bills have no capital appreciation happening, so TLT is attractive. That, from a happy Diamond NestEgg subscriber who 'thumbs-up' every eagerly anticipated episode. Thanks for all your work!

[@goldl3147]

Yes please make a video on rates on the longe-end!

[@karenk3593]

Thanks for sharing that you prefer to buy individual bonds.

[@ppumpkin3282]

Seems like a dangerous time to go long, yes the Fed may cut, but then inflation is still here, either party could continue spending and increasing debt.

[@toinengwyn3935]

Despite knowing about the record current and future debt, the bond market is buying and keeping rates below 5%. It most likely sees economic pain offsetting public spending.

[@winnerwinnerchickendinner8809]

Not unless if rate cuts late July or Sept

[@lesbolstad]

yep, much prefer long term TIPS

[@SurferTy]

Looks like rate cuts are coming. So TLT should be good to go

[@forex_shark6042]

I think it's a great trade, maybe not a great if you plan to hold until maturity.

[@marym3355]

Very clearly explained such complicated topic. Thank you

[@marcusallee8991]

I specifically want to thank you for recording this with the volume up, my iPad is wimpy and often can’t play videos loud enough if I have any amount of background noise.

[@DavidLitman-ph9lu]

I'm staying short with T-bills for now. Too much uncertainty and volatility with TLT. It's a crapshoot. I do enjoy gambling, but not with my retirement funds.

[@DiamondNestEgg]

Agree that one should generally not gamble with retirement funds

[@ccos3302]

Yes, a video on the behavior of longer term Bo da in light of rate cuts would be of great interest!! ❤

[@BryanCecilio-h7j]

Yes I would love to hear about the long rates and what moves them. Thanks!

[@wilma6235]

Great video. I like the control too. Thank you.

[@NormalNonsense]

Future feels far too murky, so I'm sticking with short-term stuff (4-13 week). I think we'll get a clearer picture once the election is over and things settle down a bit.

[@-wood-4067]

Concur, from same

[@yeejohtay4816]

Just found your video on TLT and I just bought $50k TMF hopefully price will go to the moon in 1-2 years

[@fabiang46]

You are awesome. Super video!

[@gilbellamy7713]

Thanks for your videos. They are very helpful and informative

[@timlangford8678]

Great informative video. New to your channel, but impressed with your very clear and concise videos.

[@Robertt24]

TLT is still a bargain in my opinion. It is only about 5% from the 2024 YTD lows, with a potential 48% upside (the highs of 2020) thru the next few years, and it pays about 3.8% annual dividend (paid each month at this time). The FED has an expected 96% chance of a September rate cut according to traders. This will likely move some Bond rates lower and the TLT higher. At these levels, there is a much lessened risk, and you get the 3.8% dividend while you hold the ETF. * Please do your own research. This is only an opinion * I’ll also continue to buy shorter end T-Bills, and remain forever grateful to Jennifer for all her knowledge and guidance thru the years.

[@SurferTy]

Yep. I’m with you. Been buying TLT. and shorting the markets

[@forex_shark6042]

TLT looks great to me, looks like the next big trade.

[@markjoppru8015]

i'm buying some 2 year T-Notes this week - I think it's a good time to lock in a bit longer terms

[@DiamondNestEgg]

Thanks for sharing

[@darrellh4259]

TLT is a swing trade at this point

[@pauljoseph2400]

Not a fan of bond funds. I prefer to buy bonds outright. I am intrigued by the agency bonds though, might look into that.

[@posterlion]

Nice YTD analysis. Thanks.

[@grticecream]

TLT has been a horrific investment. You can get 5.3 percent annualized on Treasuries. I'm surprised this is what people here are interested in. You can lose much money if you buy TLT at the wrong time. The risk reward is pretty bad.

[@winnerwinnerchickendinner8809]

If rate cut in July or Sept, TLT might be great

[@MyOpinionNow2024]

@@georgelien Wow, it only stayed 100 for 1 day, you must know how to hold em and how to fold em, congrats

[@wheatandtares9764]

TLT has been a horrific investment in the past 2 years. However things have changed now. Historically speaking rate cuts have appreciated the value of long term treasuries, we have geopolitical conflicts and the upcoming stock market crash will lead to a flight to safety, which will in turn increase 20 year treasury bills...Youll get the appreciation of the bond + 4.5 yield with a very low risk. Make no mistake, this is a trade, not a hold to maturity investment. How is that not a good deal?

[@coolazguy15]

@@wheatandtares9764ppl don’t understand that . Bonds have been out of favor for years because of easy money and perpetual bull. “This time it’s different “

[@udarpavarota396]

Just DCA.

[@einstendavidson9409]

If fed rate goes to 0 due to upcoming alleged financial crisis, TLT share price for sure +50% minimal. Is that a reasonable expectation if there's a financial crisis?

[@chuckawalla]

I’m extending to 3 year bills. Locked in 4.5% at last auction. Still keeping some 5% plus short term notes to see what next auction looks like. I think longer end will stabilize here or even go up when they start cutting short end. Going to be inflationary again after they cut and the debt load is unsustainable.

[@agsmith001]

👍 A video on bear vs bull steepeners explained in your usual clear way would probably be helpful for a lot of people!

[@DiamondNestEgg]

Noted - I've added this onto Jennifer's list!

[@sandrahoward5512]

Thank you, I’m buying the 42 day CMB.

[@kraxkill4747]

TLT is designed for (options) traders gambling on expected rate change. If that’s your desire TLT is ideal but otherwise buy the notes directly, make near guaranteed return and save paying the state tax on gains you would have to pay on TLT profit.

[@gregs6685]

Thank you for all your clear and detailed information. I just started following you. Yes, I'd like more info on longer treasury etfs. I recently bought a modest amount of EDV from Vanguard for speculation/capital gains. I'm confident interest rates will go down over the next year. I've also started buying-laddering into IBT(H-M) etfs for my IRA instead of directly buying Treasury notes for my shorter term income needs. A decent alternative to a direct ladder build? I've been retired for a few years.

[@GroovyMisfit]

How can I get help to understand more about the IBTP ETF (iShares iBonds Dec 2034 Term Treasury ET)?

[@robandcindy2]

Jennifer, Yes, I would enjoy your take on the “normalizing” of the yield curve(ie the int/longer end as the shorter end drops. For example, would the longer end stay stable as the short end drops and un-inverts the curve or will both ends move at the same time(short-down, long-up)? Thank you, Rob

[@DiamondNestEgg]

Hi Rob & Cindy, I've added this onto Jennifer's list, but FYI, she answered the question on a high-level in tonight's member live (around minute 6): kzbin.infoUMiB8opppdk?si=21hySTcLLGSVEG1w&t=362 Best, Eva

[@robandcindy2]

@@DiamondNestEgg Eva, thanks. I couldn’t do live but will be watching later today. No need to re-answer the question. Thanks

[@msdinba]

@Jennifer. I tried to join the Member live Q& A today, 07/22/24 at 2:30 or 2:45 pm PST. I could not find the link to join. Where can I easily find that link in the future. I logged into both the Bond Beginners and Masters courses in hopes to finding them there but I also could not find them there.

[@DiamondNestEgg]

Hi there! Here is the link for the replay of the member live: kzbin.infoUMiB8opppdk You can also find all the member lives in our Bond Beginners & Bond Masters courses under the section "KZbin Member Lives" We also put the link in our weekly emails. I hope this helps for the future. Best, Caitlin

[@scottjones2124]

It's also a hedge for gold assets

[@rmarshall6747]

If you buy long bonds (20-30 years) with a "hold to maturity" and rates rise, you will fall into the same trap as the banks that have, and are going insolvent. If the bond vigilantes come back, this is a real possibility long rates may indeed rise. Also, it's nice to know you don't need your money for 20-30 years. LOL

[@SurferTy]

Rates are not going to go UP

[@rmarshall6747]

@@SurferTy time will tell. Never say never ;-)

[@SurferTy]

@@rmarshall6747 of course one day. But NOT TODAY!!

[@windcheck.iah26r8]

Please do the video on rate cuts on short end affect long end tstes

[@windcheck.iah26r8]

I read in Bloomberg this morning that Mnuchin, resurected of year bonds and is now agreeing they should stop auctioning. If this actually hapens what would happen to TLT holder?

[@DiamondNestEgg]

I’ll add this one onto Jennifer‘s video list - thanks. Eva

[@davidk8457]

not until we close and break out from it's 52 week ema ... it's on the list 👍

[@sammyyourmammy8170]

About 3 years ago , Harry Dent was pushing TLT, it was 150.00 per share at the time. Glad I didnt listen to the man........

[@janicenunn8525]

aside from collecting the 3.6% dividend, TLT is really a gamble on direction of the long bond, which is the hardest thing in the world of finance to predict. You can literally trade the long bond with 100-1 leverage, and if it were easy to predict every kid with an iPad would be out there getting rich.

[@dimitrismolevski9696]

Amen…

[@moneekdilawari4508]

TMF not TLT ;)

[@afsoto]

i have TLTW ( buy write on tlt)

[@dogsarefun2]

do banks ever call in cd's when not call protected?

[@jimmechanikong6924]

Yes

[@carefulconsumer8682]

Actually, I'm thinking of shorting treasury bonds now, esp if Powell starts cutting rates.

[@somchai9033]

Stuck on stupid

[@connorbrown7682]

It’s literally the opposite omg. Rates cut = tlt up

[@FredoAL.]

​@@connorbrown7682yeah damn he

[@Chiphikes]

In the intermediate to long term, Powell cutting short rates, could be a contributing factor to intermediate to long term inflation. And thereby eventually lead to higher short rates. So, if that happens, it could be a wise move now to short bonds, like @carefulconsumer may do. "Be fearful when others are greedy" and vise versa... I've heard that someplace before 😉

[@thetjt]

@@Chiphikes Hard to see Fed starting to raise rates.

[@auricgoldfinger8478]

Just set up a 5 year treasury ladder at Schwab. Average rate 4.45%

[@SlimFatman]

I heard Buffet owns more Treasurys than the Fed... /shrug ETA: this was a fairly recent move IIRC

[@mrbigcat9]

TLT peaked at $179.70 on 3/1/20 TLT if rates go up and TLTW if rates go down?

[@tammynguyen4936]

Please show me how to check the auction results on Treasury Direct. I have tried but seems like not getting the right link. Thanks.

[@DiamondNestEgg]

Here you go: www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/

[@tammynguyen4936]

@@DiamondNestEgg I have that link. What I am asking is where do I find the results after they were posted on TD. For example, investment rate for 1 & 2 months were 5.363 & 5.377 issue date 7-16-24 on TD. The results you had were 5.48 & 5.52, where can I find these results on TD? Thanks.

[@DiamondNestEgg]

​@@tammynguyen4936 Jennifer covered this in the member live today (minute 4): kzbin.infoUMiB8opppdk?si=L5akff88c9A0Dcm3&t=255 Best, Eva

[@tammynguyen4936]

@@DiamondNestEgg Thank you Eva for letting me know and will check the replay. I'm usually not able to view the video during the regular scheduled live time.

[@janbiernat1344]

Good Lady, thank you.

[@curaderana]

Since I don't try to time the market (stocks or bonds or pork bellies) I wouldn't buy TLT now and bet on the come.

[@Yao-m1s]

TMF Thanks

[@SurferTy]

Yea. TMF is insane on volatility. But if rates are going up… is it the best play?

[@Yao-m1s]

@@SurferTy appreciate your expert opinions

[@alexshekhtmeyster7736]

Do you pay a State Tax on capital gain if TLT goes up?

[@DiamondNestEgg]

Hi Alex, Jennifer answered this in today's member (starts at around minute 47): kzbin.infoUMiB8opppdk?si=lQiikygkR1rD9Fcj&t=2830 Best, Eva

[@jasonfulk4935]

I bought 10k in ibonds in May of 2022'. Just now accessed my account since purchase. Is there a way I can roll those over into another TD investment? I only see the option to purchase from my bank account. Must I cash the ibond in first? Remedial question, I understand, but any assistance would be appreciated.

[@janicenunn8525]

yes, you must cash it in first, taking the hit on 3 months of interest. I hold mine b/c I believe next 5 years will be huge inflation as soon as the war heats up in the fall. Holding it rather than cashing in allows max deposit each year and higher cumulative total.

[@bshef3424]

0.15% ????? no thanks!

[@HughButler-lb6zs]

I don't buy treasuries. I have lost more money on bonds than any investments I have made. The only way to invest is to buy U.S. treasuries or insured fixed income, and hold until maturity.

[@LQVendorFP]

The treasury is refinancing/expanding its debt heavily at the short end of the treasury curve, which artificially holds down long term interest rates. If that stops, lookout. TLT and long bonds have risks, in spite of short end fed rate cuts

[@jimmyy4211]

TLT or TLTW??

[@dsmolevski]

TLT will be in the mid-80 range by January, so if you want to be a bag-holder go ahead and take a plunge

[@Yao-m1s]

Why?

[@dimitrismolevski9696]

It can’t continue to yield 3.6% while other government bonds pay 5pct. give or take…there is no point to be in it unless you play the derivative game, give me any other reason why?

[@Yao-m1s]

@@dimitrismolevski9696 thanks

[@Yao-m1s]

@@dimitrismolevski9696 thanks for your expert opinions

[@thetjt]

@@dimitrismolevski9696 Because people don't expect rates to be up for decades...

[@davidchen92127]

Isn't BND better than TLT? 0.03% vs 0.15% on Expense Ratio. I think both can make some short term gain on the coming rate cut(s). But not likely a big pop. As stated long term rates will remain high for some time to come. Because of the continued demand from debts of all kinds. Needless to talk about refinancing on long term debts once they are due. Spending cuts and higher taxes are the only way out.

[@Reza16888]

So, you are saying nobody knows if TLT will go up or not. Do you know if it will go down? Or, let me revise my question. What is the likelihood of TLT going to $80 in the next 12 months. And, if it does, would you buy it at $80? Once you answer those questions, you will then know if you want to sell the $80 Put contract of July 2025! 😉

[@SurferTy]

I think it would only go to 80 if the fed changes their stance and says they are holding for the foreseeable future. And possibly raising rates. But this is not reality.

[@Reza16888]

@@SurferTy Yep. With what we saw last week, TLT $80 is almost impossible.

[@KayKay14m]

I have over 500 shares of TLT and will not be selling any until I've held my shares for at least one year and TLT reaches 110 again. I'm thinking that at the end of the interest rate easing cycle, TLT should be somewhere between 115 and 120. I don't think it will go much above 120 unless the Fed sets rates below 2.5%

[@einstendavidson9409]

If the fed aggressively cutting rates to desperately reviving the job market. I think TLT can soar up to $180

[@ezmoney218]

sell it save urself