Can European Economy Deal With The Triple Shock?

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ABOUT
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► www.economicshelp.org was founded in 2006 by Tejvan Pettinger, who studied PPE at Oxford University and teaches economics. He has published several economics books, including:
► Economic Short Cuts amzn.to/3IgxupC
► 50 Essential Economic Ideas amzn.to/3IgxndG
► Cracking Economics. www.economicshelp.org/shop/cr...
► What Would Keynes Do? Amazon amzn.to/2xShqq4
► Economics Without the Boring Bits amzn.to/48T1hA9

[@economicshelp1]

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[@penderyn8794]

Were you a professional cyclist or Economist first lad!? 😮

[@fairybuddy-angel2035]

Buy EU should be the Europe wide mantra from all political groups. The hollowing out of Europe in pursuit of a cheaper EV or a new phone will be a long-term disaster. Brexit leaves the UK seriously isolated.

[@garycheetham2858]

I would also like to see a strong car industry in the uk and Europe. But your comment is not correct. It is not fair on Europeans to deprive them of the benefits of having cheaper EVs on the market. Also exposure to cheap EVs from China will mean European firms have to innovate to compete.

[@SK-yb7bx]

How much of the US growth is merely borrowed money?

[@elifuentes7070]

A little, considering most of this growth is private consumption.

[@logieman777]

@@elifuentes7070 private consumption on buy now pay later?

[@penderyn8794]

A lot is military investment after Ukraine war

[@SK-yb7bx]

@@elifuentes7070 Not true. They are $24T in debt now.

[@SK-yb7bx]

@@penderyn8794 Military investment by the US has always been high since WW2.

[@joshcaminski]

I'm no economist by any means but these videos are very enjoyable to listen to, keep up the great work!

[@mattdevenish83]

Your videos and presentation are getting better each vid, keep going 👏🏼

[@slothsarecool]

Avoiding Chinese products is desirable for a lot of reasons, them supporting Russia is one

[@ShamileII]

Don't overestimate our high GDP over here in the US. We are racking up 1 Trillion dollars of debt every 100 days. ...while GDI is flat. This is all going to end badly.

[@dogcat8702]

The problem with “free” market economic thinking is the historical reality of nation state competition. China having a robust manufacturing base is critical to its hard power and ability to wage war. Sending all of your productive capacity abroad may lead to higher private profits but it undercuts the state. Hyper capitalists like Thatcher rejected the importance of the state but historical reality still exists

[@davrosdarlek7058]

Why is Poland doing well? Our consumerism isn't going up yet, energy prices are as high as Germany, productivity and investement are quite low and the population is stagnant. Could anyone give me an explanation?

[@TheSurrealWolf]

From what I've heard, Poland are doing very well in terms of manufacturing. Which provides high quality goods internally and to the EU, which supports the middle classes in a way that the middle classes of other EU states are getting squeezed

[@ste16kam35]

The poorer European countries would do better. Poland will probably stop its rise in 5-10 years.

[@cryptocashmoney]

EU subsidies and their multiplier effect over the years

[@davrosdarlek7058]

@@cryptocashmoney but does that not apply to any Eastern European country in the EU?

[@davrosdarlek7058]

@@ste16kam35 it will probably stop. But it's weirdly predicted to grow at 4/5% matching the pace when it was much poorer. Also the economy by PPP is proportionally pretty much the size it should be by population but that might be a misinterpretation.

[@jackiechan8840]

Chinese cars weren't unexpected. Top Gear did a great episode about it a decade ago.

[@Daytona2]

Insightful as ever Tejvan, thank you. +11:54 😮 I didn't know Europe's population is going to half in the next 76 years, I'll watch your video. In investing, demographics, is a fundamental indicator of long term returns, so I guess it is of economies, too. +10:47 Incredibly low cost of electricity in France - a fifth of the price. Is this heavily subsidised ?

[@cerulyse]

I actually voted brexit because of the cookie law

[@user-lz8nu1yh8y]

Thank you for the goog analysis. You are 100x smarter, than all our leaders in Germany combined.

[@drhibas]

If the wealth isn’t shared it is of no consequence though. I rather have a modest European life than fighting for my life to become rich in the US

[@paulbo9033]

1. Be careful with this trope about cheap Chinese goods and dumping. It's a good excuse for policy makers and uncompetitive companies in Europe. But the issue is primarily that Europe is behind on innovation. EVs are the perfect example, the reason they're terrified of Chinese EVs is that they're fundamentally just way better than anything Europe produces. Anyone who has had a go in a few can attest to that. If it was just an issue of cheapness, tariffs might work, but they will fail because their EVs are simply better so all that will happen is that the protectionism will shield European companies from innovative competition which will see them fall further behind in innovation. China hasnt really been a cheap manufacturing based for a while now - the cheap labour inputs have moved to south east Asia and India, much of what China does now is value add and specialized. 2. The EU Green Deal is not really a subsidy. It's more of a financing play boot loaded with fiscal stimulus. The idea is to mandate companies to transition, then provide public investment to do so for about a quarter of the funding and leverage it to crowd in the rest from the private sector i.e. banking debt finance.

[@ShamileII]

Well said!

[@inquaanate2393]

European dominance is not in car manufacturing. It is in engine manufacturing.

[@markkierznowski6121]

Europe will never regain its former glory so long as it remains occupied by the Creature from Jekyll Island.

[@erongi233]

The trouble,or one of the troubles, with economics is that it cannot predict Bill Gates or Elan Musk. One man can make a big difference and a number of individual entrepreneurs in the US have invented the Magnificant Seven and much besides. There are ,of course, significant economic factors at play for example energy reserves, or lack of them, but the rogue individual can make a big difference to any determinism which economics seeks to identify.

[@nettcologne9186]

I think your research is quite incomplete. First. The EU is preparing for possible tariffs on imported electric cars from China. Because their low prices are brought about by massive government support, which no longer has anything to do with fair trade. In addition, Chinese people are almost forced to only buy Chinese products (e.g. electric cars). Secondly, you overlook massive investments in Europe. Examples from my country: Here are just the most recent foreign investments in Germany: Everyone knows that after Brexit, Tesla built its European factory in the state of Brandenburg/Germany and is already producing there for the European market. - The US company Intel wants to produce computer chips with a size of 1.5 nanometers in the planned factory in Magdeburg in the state of Saxony-Anhalt/Germany. Current chips are usually significantly larger. 3,000 high-tech jobs will be created and tens of thousands of additional jobs by suppliers and partners. The city of Magdeburg is building a new district to create living space. Investments in Magdeburg for the factory alone are said to amount to more than 30 billion euros. In the construction phase alone, around 7,000 workers are needed for the Intel factory alone. The same applies to the - Chip company TSMC from Taiwan, witch is building a semiconductor factory with 2,000 new jobs in Dresden in the state of Saxony/Germany. - The Swedish battery manufacturer Northvolt has decided to build a factory near Heide in the state of Schleswig-Holstein/Germany. 3,000 jobs will be created here, as well as thousands more at suppliers and service providers. - Microsoft is building 2 large data centers for AI in North Rhine-Westphalia/Germany, plus an AI qualification offensive with local partners from business, municipalities, schools and educational institutions in North Rhine-Westphalia and throughout Germany. - The US pharmaceutical giant Lilly is investing billions in a new factory in Rhineland-Palatinate/Germany. a.s.o. These are investments in future technologies, not old energy-intensive products.

[@josephmcgurty3822]

I probably don’t know what I’m talking about here but it just seems like you may as well just borrow beyond means at every opportunity, seems unreasonable to be heading towards that kinda debt to gdp ratio for the us but it’s basically just fine

[@sfactory8253]

I don't know either but I assume being the world reserve currency helps.

[@bangdobrich]

Interesting to know you are from Yorkshire, like many bright people from there you've moved away, I wonder why.

[@nicoles9077]

Can someone explain to me why Europe’s fertility rates got so bad? Europeans love to tout their work life balance, businesses are closed on Sundays in some European countries - like what were they doing with their time? Sure we can talk about inflation and high cost of living today, but this has been decades in the making. It’s an honest question.

[@Jordan-fd6cx]

You need stability to build a good, healthy family household. A strong foundation. I can't speak for the whole of Europe. But here in the UK, Work is generally insecure and poorly paid, especially relative to the cost of living. Minimum wage is becoming the normal wage, zero hours contracts, and fake 'self-employment' jobs dominate the job market A 2.1 degree is no longer a ticket to a well-paid job, just a big pile of debt right at the start of life. Housing has become ridiculously expensive, whether by rent or mortgage, with the average house costing x12 the 'average' wage, but saving is impossible when rent and cost of living is so high. This also means young adults stay living with their parents longer before moving out. Which slows their independence, personal development, maturity and delays true adulthood. Social mobility and development opportunities are an all-time low. The social class you're born into is likely the class you're stuck with. It's turning into a caste system. Households now need both parents working rather than a single Income being sufficient like before, but childcare is so expensive that it eats almost the whole 2nd parent's income. Attitudes to parents in need of financial support are also increasing hostile and uncaring. Regarded often as nothing more than irresponsible parasites. The life prospects of new children seem bleaker than ever, which makes people think twice before bringing new children into the world, especially when they can't even provide security for themselves. We don't want our children to struggle in poverty. Young people struggle to even afford to go out to socialise now, a pint of beer costs about £6-7 alone. Not to mention social media and dating apps are poisoning normal human interaction and making everyone wary and distant from each other. So many, especially young men, spend every single evening at home alone instead of mixing with each other. TLDR: Jobs pay too little, are too insecure, and everything's too expensive to provide security and comfort for ourselves, let alone children, and we struggle to socialise more than ever.

[@nicoles9077]

@@Jordan-fd6cx thank you for your response. I hope things get better

[@gerhard7323]

​@@Jordan-fd6cxSuccinct, measured and fair assessment. Hopefully more people will read it.

[@user-oh9uq2ob4s]

US economy is growing fast because the high inflation........ literally people have 2-3 jobs to survive....

[@user-rk3vw3pk4w]

People in the UK also work 2-3 jobs and struggling as well. So why GDP is not growing?

[@marcocarlson1693]

The Only reason the U.S. has been growing faster is because of Massive Amounts of DEBT added into the economy. Since 1990, U.S. Debt has gone from $3 Trillion to $37 Trillion by the end of this year. $34 TRILLION More! Try to find one European country that can even begin to scratch the surface of that. You say the U.S. can Borrow more due to the Dollar. Do you know that the U.S. is Paying Far More than Any Western European country to finance this 37 Trillion? You didn't say that. So what does GDP mean at all if it's all just Debt? That's why others Don't do this. Also, hardly anyone in America even believes the growth 'reported'. You know why? Because the GDP numbers, in America, are all 'juiced up' with stuff that has nothing to do with Actual production. That's Why people don't really believe it, because it isn't Real.

[@chickenfishhybrid44]

Right, it's all just the debt.

[@chrisfactoryboi]

Remember who destroyed the Nord Stream pipeline guys? Hmmmmm I wonder who? Who profited?

[@penderyn8794]

Russian profits went up a lot after the explosion

[@gerhard7323]

Yep, that wasn't just an act of eco-industrial terrorism conducted by the US it was economic terrorism inflicted on the entirety of Western Europe. And yet, bizarrely, no one raises so much as an eyebrow.

[@sfactory8253]

Look at the UK though. Can see why brexiteers only ever mention Germany.

[@frusciantesplectrum7980]

I think for many, we thought it would force the government to invest within and aim to be self sufficient… instead we have just sat in limbo.

[@chickenfishhybrid44]

Europeans whining about protectionism and tariffs is always rich.

[@KimCastro-qu2vm]

*Thanks for continuing updates 👍🏻 I'd rather trade the stock market as it's more profitable 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻was owning a loan of $47,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery (Oscar), Now I'm no longer in debt after lI invested $8,000 and got my payout of $120,500 every months,God bless Angela Christine Derle* 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸..

[@andrewtaylor6737]

I'm sure Germany can support the block, with its huge financial surples!🤣

[@DerDop]

Since when the block needs Germany’s support? 😅😅😅😅 almost everyone in the EU is outpeforming the UK darling 😅😅😅😅

[@andrewtaylor6737]

@@DerDop outperfoming the Uk, pull the other one!🤣 How's the Mediterranean / Eastern Europe? with their zero unemployment / sky high salaries & benefits we could only dream of!😅😅

[@DerDop]

@@andrewtaylor6737 working class in southern Europe and eastern EU has better living standards than their UK counterparts. We’re in 2024 pumpkin, not in 2014. UK is rubbish.

[@DerDop]

@@andrewtaylor6737 unfortunately for you, they’re way better. Only Hungary and Germany are experiencing a downturn in terms of living standards. Italian or Polish working class has it way way better than the British one. There’s a reason why Polish workers are going back to their country… the reason is that Britain is a mess. Italy is on a growth, Eastern EU has almost zero unemployment, wages are rising fuel prices are going down. Brexshit, the gift that keeps on giving 🤪🤪🤪

[@MnemonicCarrier]

😂 😂 😂

[@LexStrat]

Как все исправить? Уйти из украины, молдовы, прибалтики, просить Россию на коленях продать электричество и бензин, снять санкции, вернуть все деньги России с процентами, извинится за мертвых русских на Донбасе, извинится перед населением России и слезно просить его покупать ваши товары, просить открыть рынок, самим открыть рынок для Российских товаров, убрать систему противорвкетной обороны из европы и тогда может быть все наладится, ну по крайней мере вы не умрете от голода. Это сегодня вам кажется что все эти требование не реально, но чернз 10 лет у вас не будет выхода

[@dimitarmargaritov]

As an Eastern European, I find it amazing that some Americans believe Europe is some perfect state.

[@tropics8407]

Nothing from nothing = nothing, why would capital stay in Europe when government regulations, laws and taxes suppress business and innovation 🤷‍♂️

[@cornish5278]

No, this is no reason to rejoin a failed EU scheme.

[@ThomasBoyd-ex5vr]

Spot on. Well said. Brilliant content. Support STV voting system for all English local government elections. Labour party win British general election in October 10th Thursday England 2024 Landslide victory over the Tories Conservatives. Art Bezrukavenko deliver it. Britain England London rejoin single market EU again.

[@sfactory8253]

Keir said no to the single market the other day when interviewed on talk TV

[@user-kc1tf7zm3b]

The UK is out of the EU for the foreseeable future. This will just not happen anytime soon. The UK will just have to make the best out of a shitty situation.

[@garyb455]

The best future for the UK is to align closer to the USA, its the number one economy in the World and will be for decades to come

[@sfactory8253]

New book out called vassal state which argues the UK should become the 51st state as it's almost there already !

[@garyb455]

@@sfactory8253 not a bad idea

[@ChrisLock-kt7ji]

@@garyb455 it’s a terrible idea!

[@garyb455]

@@ChrisLock-kt7ji why dont you like success ? higher salaries and lower taxes ?

[@ChrisLock-kt7ji]

Higher wages and lower taxes sound great and I agree the UK should align as closely as possible with the US and the rest of the anglosphere.

[@CarlJones14]

Rubbish analysis. Oh, let's just create $61 billion for UKraine, but it's all going to be spent in the MIC.

[@TenisovaZelenina]

.Look at exhorbitant profits like for example Volkswagen is making while complaining about competition while selling overpriced EVs. They are not the only big company in Europe doing something similar. The issue here is that while Brussells protect fat cats and fat profits, Europeans are getting poorer and poorer. I am all for protecting jobs and industries, but current Brussel protectionism will be disaster for European competiveness and standard of living in short or median time frame. You can be protecting local industry and at the same time encourage inovation and competiveness , just look at chinese 30 years back. Do I expect European leaders to be able to do it? No, they are more invested in screwing Russian , Chinese, making arms for never ending wars than improve lives of their population. So , result is, Europe is decaying , economically , politically and some people may say morally too. I do not expect any improvement any time soon.

[@QuartermasterReviews]