Can I get a $2,500 watch for $250? - Spinning "The Watch Wheel"

[@JusttheWatch]

If you want to see what Watch Gang sends out for their subscription service, check out Watch'n! kzbin.info/www/bejne/fWqafoZmr7imp80

[@patjnic]

From TOS: "The probability of landing on an item within an available level - from the lowest to highest available level - is 87.2%, 10%, 2.36%, .4%, and .04%."

[@nineteenninetyfive]

0.04% ffs

[@benstrombeck5130]

Interesting, thanks for posting this! I've spun about 15 wheels, and most were the lowest possible level, maybe 2 were at level 2, and 1 was at the second highest (the .4%). So basically I paid $600 for an Omega Seamaster (the newest, black face). That was a great day. But for the most part, I know that I'm almost guaranteed to get the level 1 watch, so I only spin when I actually want to buy that watch for that price

[@qrincetons]

yeah, wouldn’t say it’s worth it

[@colindonoghue6120]

They made it even worse then, 93.2%, 5%, 1.36%, .43%, and .01% was the average chances that I was seeing for the different wheels

[@colindonoghue6120]

@@nineteenninetyfiveeven better now, around .01%

[@johnschweitzer4401]

When I decided to collect watches, I joined the subscription at the cheapest level. I had no idea what I wanted, what I liked. I knew nothing. I was on the service for a year. I learned much. I leaned what I liked and wanted and I learn much about watches. For a fella like me it was a great idea. Now I know a little bit more, I choose the watches I want. I never played THE WHEEL. This was a great video. Thank you.

[@phil2082]

Go look at their probabilities! It is a greater than 90% chance that you get the lowest level watch. If that's not what you want, either pay more so the lowest level watch IS what you want, or don't spin. From their site: 87.2%, 10%, 2.36%, .4%, and .04% This means that there is a 97.2% chance that you get one of the lowest two levels. Then, 2.36% chance of the next one - just over one in fifty. It's basically impossible to get the grail watch.

[@WatchWitt]

I’ve only spun the wheel once before, but used the exact same strategy. You HAVE to be happy with the price you’d pay for any level 1 Watch….then every other chance is just a bonus, like you said.

[@anandanil8158]

this is way more sensible than i thought it was gonna be but the idea of a missionary watch guy gambling was also quite entertaining. Great content

[@barrettwbenton]

That crossed my mind as well…I was imagining the vicar in *Grantchester* sitting at a laptop, brandy snifter in-hand, getting ready tp spin that wheel, only to have Mrs. Chapman barge in and scoff: "Really…and what would your Sunday flock say to all this?" (Seriously good stuff here, Dave.)

[@Tom_H327]

Yup. He should ask for forgiveness. 😂

[@uhrologe2596]

I've checked the wheel and their "luxury" and "premium" options. It's a totally scam. The Level 1 to 4 options are filled with chinese Ali E. watches which I even wouldn't wear for free. Only the "grail" watches contains Rolex and Hublot but used as a bait. The scheme is clear. They make a lot of money by letting you "win" 5 $ Watches. The only deal which makes sense is the Laco wheel. But for the other wheels I would highly recommend to stay away from them. It's just a scam.

[@roberts1340]

thank you for your honest and open appraisal and approach to watch gang. i am looking into completing my first spin so i have been looking for as much content about how they operate. again thank you.

[@AvgJoeWatchReviews]

That was fun to watch Dave. Thanks for sharing and enjoy the watch.

[@Conundrum191]

I almost bit the last time they did a Laco specific wheel since I was looking at the Aachen anyways. That said, I'm now leaning Dekla for a flieger so will have to sit this one out. You hit the nail on the head though...pick a level 1 watch that you would buy for the wheel price anyways, so the wheel can only surprise and never really disappoint you.

[@tomk9237]

Very smart strategy I might have to give it a shot.

[@Comalv]

brand-specific wheels are very cool, the remaining wheels are filled with fodder and it's really hard to find a level 1 or level 2 watch that's worth getting (let alone worth the money for the spin). I guess it appeals to the gacha-format of mobile games

[@GirlMeetsWatch]

Love the strategy tip!

[@ProjectSerpo90]

I took a chance on the wheel tonight and my strategy was exactly what yours was in the video. Plan on hitting a Level 1 because it’s like a 90% probability. Here were my picks.. Level 1 - 42mm Laco Augsburg x3 Level 2 - 42mm Laco Altenburg x2 Level 3 - Marathon GSAR 36mm Level 4 - Laco Frankfurt GMT (one of my grail watches) Grail - Omega (I’m not a fan of Rolex unless it’s an Explorer 2) I had a $20 coupon so it cost me $282 out the door. I landed on Level 2 on my first spin ever and I can’t even tell you how happy I am. I’ve been wanting a Laco for years and would have been happy with any of them, but I’m ecstatic right now that it was the Altenberg. A $500 for under $300? Yes please and thank you.

[@rbmwiv]

I have spun the wheel a few times and I did it the same way you are talking about doing. Wait until I see something that I want that’s definitely a deal and twice I have won the a level 3 watch.

[@jamesblonde2271]

Great info, well worth checking occasionally.

[@bero2]

Thanks for explaining the watch wheel and sharing your strategy! I've been eyeing the Aachen 39 for quite some time which is always $400+. Loaded the wheel with all 39mm Type-B Fliegers. Guaranteed win. Got the Aachen!

[@skarm7780]

Or you could save your money and get a really nice watch

[@AnyoxB.D.]

Great tip. I’ve been wanting a Laco Aachen and this is a very good idea

[@mikearonhalt1437]

Great info cool video. Following from Rosamond CA near Mojave.

[@josemedina1983]

100% make a lot of research and really look at images of the watches on google images. I played the wheel and for 300+ I actually got the Mojave Dessert Laco 42mm. On another spin I for a Laco B dial and a DUFA dress watch (which I'm quite impressed with the quality)

[@TylerCochran20]

I don't understand all the complaints about the wheel, I've always approached it the way you do. "Is there a Level 1 watch I want that's a good deal at the price of the spin?" If it's a yes, then it's a no brainer, you're getting a discount on a watch you want with a very slim chance of getting a better/more expensive watch. Seems like a win-win to me.

[@mordeth1964]

Not a (too) bad idea, however I could buy a few really cool Casio's for $250.00..😋👍

[@MikeWeida]

Picked up the Halle off this week love it. Also got a Hesili off the wheel

[@chriscon8463]

I’m thinking they just “gave away” a watch they probably paid less than $250 for wholesale. The house wins again. At least you got that watch at a good price!

[@petergplus6667]

Nice idea to make people think they could get a better watch when there is probably zero chance. Don't do such things.

[@phil2082]

Probabilities, from their website: 87.2%, 10%, 2.36%, .4%, and .04% So, 97.2% chance of two lowest levels. Only 10% of that is level 2.

[@Stanjara]

@@phil2082 You either win high tier, or not. Thats 50/50. Sounds good to me. /s This is absolute garbage. Don't gamble people. This is not worth $250. Only for flipper youtubers.

[@W5NWA]

'When you want things in life most people don't have you have to be willing to do things most people won't do'. 'Me' circa 1992.

[@fark69]

@@Stanjara that Laco Halle with the Miyota 9015 he got is worth $250 in my book

[@Tom_H327]

Are we sure Seiko isn't running the wheel? 😂

[@sdavifcom]

Even though that was your money, I felt real excitement. Laco is a brand I did not know about. That Frankfurt GMT looks fantastic. Thanks for explaining how the whole thing works. I just might give it a go myself.

[@WATCHingJames]

Great video. Lots of good info

[@nintendokings]

It’s deceiving based on the size of the slices. It suggests >50% to get level 2 or higher and >25% to get level 3 or higher. The hidden values are probably more like 90% level 1…

[@miguelmaldonado6049]

I usualy don’t write comments because some people don’t understand that I’m Just….a Watch enthusiast. I visited the channel in your link and looks nice. Keep up with your channel. In my opinion the best . It’s content suits my horological taste .

[@JusttheWatch]

Thanks Miguel! I appreciate it!

[@idletime]

Thanks for the heads up Dave, that is interesting and a nice score on that Laco 😀

[@whereisvanuatu]

Just a quick question: can I sign in exclusively for the wheel, or is it mandatory to choose one of the tiers and then spend extra for the spin?

[@JusttheWatch]

You don't have to spend anything until you hit the spin button. You should be able to browse all the watches, and even load them onto the wheel without paying anything.

[@whereisvanuatu]

Thank you!

[@thewheelieguy]

To specifically answer your question, you do not need to have any of these subscriptions to buy a watch through the wheel of fortune

[@javierjimenez786]

Do you need to pay taxes? Or are they included with the shipping fee?

[@RelativeTime]

Great video, I think we have talked about this before. Just remember don't spin on the mystery, I made that mistake in that one video.

[@spookmineer]

2 minutes in and my advice for all here: they have run the math and simulations, the house always wins. You still can get lucky though ;) Also, nice strategy! If you can find a watch that's worth more than $250 on level 1, you might as well spin the wheel. It's weird they offer $500 watches for $250 but yeah, that sounds like a good deal!

[@phil2082]

Probabilities, from their website: 87.2%, 10%, 2.36%, .4%, and .04% This means you have a 97.2% chance to get one of the two lowest levels.

[@spookmineer]

@@phil2082 If that's true, their chart is "slightly" off. You can't even really see the sliver of level 4, let alone the grail.

[@weasel9062]

@@phil2082 with those odds you would have to spin the wheel 2,500 times to get a grail statistically, which is equal to $625,000

[@tonyvillavilla9650]

Hi Dave, have you tried spinning the wheel more than a number of times? Do you get to win the same watch if all your slots have different selections?

[@ozludo]

A wise approach, well presented. My impression has been based purely on wildly overhyped second-hand sales, particularly on forums. So haven't even looked. Shipping to Aussie is pretty expensive now so that's something to think about. I was very lucky to buy a used Atacama 3-4 years ago, but I'm sad to say it has been barely worn. Simply too big, even on 8" wrists. The Mohave and Amazon look like good alternatives after I sell it on. And the Laco GMT - yes! Grey for sure. Especially if you can get the 911 Sport Classic (grey trim) to go with it. And an autobahn, in all likelihood 🤔

[@juniorjohnson5961]

Thanks Dave !

[@ViorelSnap]

I pulled the trigger and got a level 1 watch for a nice discount, now I hope they ship it in a timely manner

[@Jlingsw]

Which one did you get? Could be a while since they say it can take 14 business days before they even ship.

[@ViorelSnap]

@@Jlingsw yeah, I saw that. I got the blue Augsburg 39 mm, was very close to getting a lvl 2 watch though. Damn gambling :D

[@vincebrickner5529]

Very cool first time I've heard of it and I believe you got a great deal. Thanks for sharing!

[@TheGaztela]

Un sustituto de calidad y más económico al Hamilton intramatic chronograph ? Thanks

[@ProjectSerpo90]

Do you know if I have to be a monthly subscription member to watchgang to spin the sport wheel? I really want to spend the sport wheel for $282 because I basically stacked it with all Lacos that I’d be happy with any of. The issue is, in the terms of service it says you have to be an active member of watchgang to spin the wheel. So I’m afraid if I spend the $282 they are going to tell me I don’t get a watch because I’m not a member and then I’m out the money.

[@carbondragon]

I tend not to be "lucky" so I don't get drawn in by this stuff, but your strategy seems reasonable.

[@peterkelly1100]

Just to be clear no matter what level you land on you pay 250 or what ever the spin cost?

[@oalaqeel]

I bought from Laco twice. One basic and one original flieger. Both are not working. Terrible QC.

[@ggerhart]

I also really love the gmt!

[@laus7080]

Combining obsessive watch collecters and gambling. Nice combo :-)

[@tkindschi]

When I started this video, I was thinking, "Oh, No! Dave is going to promote a gambling scam!" But, I was glad to see your "strategy" takes into account that, 1) You are overwhelmingly more likely to get the lowest value watch on the wheel, and 2) As long as you are genuinely happy with that watch at that price, then you are safe. Definitely NOT a good idea to go into it with "I'll only be truly happy" being tied to the "Grail watch"!! As for me, in my situation as an occasional watch buyer, I'll stick with finding my best retail price...

[@redjet4810]

After spinning some 40 times, usually in the 250 dollar range,I wo a watch above leve1, twice. Looks like a bbeat to me.

[@bazwav]

What is a bbeat, so did it pay off then or are you recommending against it?

[@thomasmargolis6057]

The watch gang is set to benefit, where they do not alter the rules for them? First and last, they act for them. IF you win, they still win. Good luck and seasons greetings.

[@iliketurtles4463]

A potentially controversial topic covered with wisdom and class, well done. I'm always a little dubious about these types of sales techniques, have seen many a rigged promotion in the gaming industry's equivalent (in game items) exposed over the years. Just out of interest, do you know or what is your opinion on whether or not they are actually physically in possession of the items on the wheel prior to or do they make their purchase after the event? Typically I try to only trade with vendors that actually hold the items in their own inventory.

[@JusttheWatch]

I don't know for sure, but I think they have the inventory in stock. A lot of the watches they have are ones that they previously sent out to their subscribers.

[@marcushd5776]

Interesting stuff 🤟🏼

[@acp02091]

Interesting. Do they actually publish the odds of landing on any given category? Because I highly suspect the odds of winning the category do not correspond to the proportion of the wheel that represents that category. Tricky, perhaps dishonest, sales tactic. I think Dave’s method is the only solid way to use this product.

[@G_Rizzly]

This seems like an online lottery website in EU and is subject to very strict regulation and an online gaming license (and being 18+) and should not be advertised nor accepting money. Also I’m pretty sure the low winning odds do not comply with the regulation in some countries, such as France.

[@Hard_7_Iron]

Laco is a good choice.

[@Tom_H327]

I've only ever heard of 1 person ever getting a super awesome watch. Its a racket.

[@H0kram]

Very smart buyer :)

[@W5NWA]

A couple weeks into the monthly Platinum plan here are my thoughts summed up. So far so good. The first Platinum watch (where you don't know what is coming) I received just yesterday was a RGMT Sky White Diver, nothing I would have ever purchased myself and 'break even' for the cost vs retail ($650) which basically translates to trading dollars for dollars and actually probably losing a few if I were to flip it. Still, it's a nice watch and an automatic BUT with mineral glass instead of sapphire which is disappointing as are the luminous properties on the dial. Again though, I would never have bought the watch of my own accord. So then I did a wheel spin on the 'Sport' selection (my favorite kind of watches actually) and got an Aragon Divemaster 42 Meteorite Swiss Automatic, (retail value $1600) for about $300 (it was a Level 3 pick as I recall). Since I collect meteorites it's a great acquisition and why I picked it. Actually winning what I really wanted was GREAT, it will be here Friday. The only disappointment will be if the included documentation does NOT identify which classified meteorite it is made from i.e. Gibeon, etc. Finally, I literally just spun the wheel again only minutes ago on the 'Premium' selection. Once more, this is about $650 after taxes and what my Platinum monthly plan is. For it I will receive a Gevril Hudson Yards Diver (Green Dial) valued at $4295 retail which was offered as a Level 1 pick. So two out of three isn't bad IMHO. If you like watches then give it a go. The naysayers below are fascinating to me. People who never tried something offering opinions on it LOL. Ridiculous.

[@jacobpartin4553]

Id try it at least once

[@maximilianl4453]

It always depends with watchgang. Once got a undone that retailed for 380 for 285. 90% of the low tier stuff is trash, but sometimes you can find something you would want anyways. They always the same 3-5 brands. So it’s worth to check it out from month to month.

[@MyAlan999]

So its basically gambling for watches , not for me

[@FurkanCemTurfanda]

Most of it is junk, but if you know what you are doing you can score really good deals every now and then.

[@NathanHassall]

welcome to hose town.

[@ludeknovotny3967]

I like your healthy view and grounded attitude, yet it's more than clear the Watch Wheel is made with gambling in mind and it uses almost every single strategy to get people hooked. To target the ones with weaker self-control. So in a way, this video still promotes a gambling and I'm kinda dissapointed to see a video like this on the chanel.

[@artswri]

Fun and interesting but I'll just buy what I want

[@mikekane9213]

I bought a lotto ticket when it got to a billion dollars. I didn't win. This seems.a bit more sensible and fun lol. Again, if you'd buy that lower priced watch anyways, why not go for the gold?!

[@johnseeger9083]

Madness!

[@Janesch]

Don’t promote gambling!

[@bryanciacco4181]

The wheel is a scam people! This KZbinr has no shame! You're better off spending $250 on the roulette wheel!

[@marsoelflaco5722]

Generally speaking; if you buy a watch on the cheap, you're getting a cheap, defective watch.

[@Ecoboosttookadump]

I want to talk to the person that's actually won a grail and not a level 1

[@JohnnyW78]

let us now if you will receive it

[@BernardAndilab]

Nice and beautiful ❤

[@Stanjara]

Gambling, yeah great... The gamba. Fantastic content./s Don't initiate people to gamble... this is not worth $250..miyota movement... Jesus. Only for youtubers and their giveaway content.

[@palicar]

Oops. I’m 👍 number 666.

[@justmeeagainn]

What a crock of nonsense. Plus you tell us the same thing over and over, as if people couldn’t get what you’re doing the first time. Maybe 1/1000 people get anything better than a level 1. Odds go up from there.

[@epsyuma]

I have been playing the wheel for 2 years now. I have never won anything other than a level 1 watch, everytime! Personally, I think the wheel is rigged.

[@robertlittlehawk7713]

Great iqdea

[@CB-ym9to]

Rip off!

[@nineteenninetyfive]

I don't like it. Surely buying watches is about buying the one watch that you really want, not rolling the dice on a random watch.

[@TheBadGuy1974]

Could taste your disappointment.

[@jacometti]

Promoting/normailising/discussing/entertaining or even just giving a platform to gambling feels at odds with your normal ethic Dave. Surprised and disappointed. This feels like a misstep.

[@Koopsstuff]

I couldn’t agree more… such a low brow move… shame on him

[@Dtx1988]

This stuff infuriates me. If this were a physical wheel, it would be much more fair and honest. This “wheel” is software written by a person who works for the company. You think they’d be honest or fair with its output? I doubt it.

[@JusttheWatch]

No if you look at the fine print they give you the odds. I think getting a level 2 is like 10% and then it goes way down from there.

[@whatamess2358]

7 spins - always landed on the first option. Its rigged.

[@FiveMissiles]

how to "random chance" gamble wth strategy lol

[@whatamess2358]

@@FiveMissiles yep. Make sure you want the first choice. Scored a mido for just under retail. Thats the only notable brand. Some cool Gervil watches.

[@ilijapilipovic]

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