Can New York City Real Estate Recover? My Thoughts.

[@BreakIntoCRE]

What do you think is next for New York City real estate?

[@ReventureConsulting]

NYC has lost 13% of its jobs over the last year. That’s 4x higher than the GFC and post-9/11. These job losses are being hidden from the real estate market by fiscal stimulus and eviction/foreclosure moratoriums. Something to think about.

[@supertrouper]

Another thing about the remote workers living out in the suburbs, many of them are going to be future employers and open up businesses in the suburban towns adding even more jobs to the suburbanites in addition to the fact that many formerly city-based companies are fleeing to the suburbs, which is going to increasingly slow the flow of suburban migrants into the city. The larger space in their suburban houses and with more flexible time will allow them to be more creative with their talents and many of them will either ask their companies to sponsor opening a satellite office for them to manage and hire new employees from the area or they may start a side business while still having a regular job and some of them will become successful in their own personal businesses and will then quit their regular jobs to expand on their startup company and in some cases they will open up an office or storefront and hire people from the town.

[@bahhaziz]

What do you mean recover ? Houses prices are crazy damn high

[@christopherbradshaw6253]

Good to hear that you grew up there. It is going to bounce back. I predict some of the office buildings will be converted into residential.

[@cccc9911]

A change of leadership is mandatory. I wouldnt risk a friggin dime in that city with morons like Cuomo and DeBlasio calling shots.

[@organicgigilau]

New York is back!

[@OscarTorresWork]

My Beautiful NYC I used to love that place and what it had, now it's a shadow of its former self. So tragic and disapointing.

[@hooper9226]

Hi Justin, your proforma courses have been very informative and helpful. Do you plan on adding affordable housing/mixed use proformas course

[@amarpatel1052]

Thanks for the video Justin - as always some very useful insights. I'd also like to thank you for all your KZbin content and Break into CRE modelling courses - extremely useful!

[@OrlandoFloridaRelocator]

Question, where can I go to learn more about the rents within Central Florida and the suburbs areas?

[@stemp_sem]

Internet/google

[@Harsh1514]

CBRE, Axiometrics, Cushman & Wakefield, Greystar are some I can name off the top of my head. Costar is expensive but the ones I listed should be free. Or Google search “Central Florida Real Estate Market” or the city plus “real estate market”.

[@ironeo]

Quality of life ? Crime ... I hear crickets.

[@Ice-qq1or]

As a beginner, in what order do you recommend taking the courses?

[@ajohnnyboi21]

Love the information you put out. I'm a starter CRE investor. I'm a RE agent in Western NY (Buffalo). I would love to connect with you. There is a ton of opportunity out here for Commercial, especially being the 2nd biggest city in NY. I know this area like the back of my hand. I figure I'll try and reach out. Have a great day brother.

[@dvonpache]

What's your thesis and some viable examples to review?

[@nptlax1]

I will preface by saying these are personal anecdotes - but I think it’s important in context of this conversation. Of all my buddies (ages 21-25) who moved out of NYC in Spring 2020 back home, 65% of them have plans in the next month to move back into the city. The other 35% are apartment hunting with intentions of moving in during the summer months. Also, as a college senior I can also mention that every single one of my friends who have finance/CRE gigs in NYC are moving into NYC apartments come June. I think there is a lot of hope (misguided? maybe.) with the younger generations surrounding the future of NYC nightlife. Everywhere I turn i’m hearing sounds of the “roaring 20’s”, and people are serious about it. Concessions are still very much out there, and with great deals and young ignorance, I have hope (if NY leadership wakes up).

[@BreakIntoCRE]

This is an excellent comment and very valid - I agree with what you're saying and also have seen people just starting their careers right now still very bullish on NYC. Thank you for sharing!

[@cccc9911]

That foot traffic graph was corrupt. Foot traffic was down 90%!!!! Its still down 80%. It is a GHOST TOWN!!!!

[@gaelfrenchy]

since the economy is not dead ,the system remain the same ...it s gonna be fine for all the cities in the world...during this pandemy some people got richer so the economy will continue

[@supertrouper]

NYC certainly will not collapse, but it is going to be a very different atmosphere in the future. The increasingly popular obsessive trend of remote work is going to decrease the number of people moving into the city from the suburbs. There will be lesser demands for city apartments. You will still have people moving into the city from the suburbs, but many of them will now be short term residents as many will be able to transition to total remote work and then will just move back out into the suburbs to buy a big house to live comfortably in and have more space to do remote work. You are going to see more of a large constant inflow and outflow of suburban migrants in the future and only a small number will remain in the city for long term for certain jobs that cannot be remote.

[@sugarman08]

The numbers are the numbers kid the flight has begun the empty hotels will be permanently filled with homeless and empty commercial space will be four NYCHA residence

[@tomalex1612]

Nyc is done !!

[@siaoyenmei]

It is already recovering

[@dvonpache]

Justin, your optimism contradicts the prolonged systemic decline in NYC metro you've outlined herein as well. While repositioning opportunities exist related to CoViD indeed, the lopsided risk for smaller investors remains notably amplified by regulatory mandates and bandwidth above all. Moreover, in a capitalist nation, when its government decrees that rents are void while all other Op-Ex remains due, small biz is forced to close & and those with wealth will pay double going forward... isn't it imprudent for you to acknowledge in the least the writing on the wall?