Can Someone Guess My Crypto Private Key? [From Sand, to Molecules, to the Observable Universe]

Can't someone guess my bitcoin, ether, or other crypto private key? People ask this question all the time! Maybe you've even asked it yourself. Most answers are something like, "No, they can't". But how do I know they can't? Why is it so hard to guess a crypto private key? Watch this video where Andreas explains, in plain terms, why it's basically impossible for someone to just guess the private key to unlock your bitcoin, ethereum, or other cryptocurrency.
Chapters
0:00 Introduction -- What is Down the Rabbit Hole?
1:22 Can someone guess my bitcoin, ether, or other crypto asset private key?
2:28 What is a crypto private key?
2:58 A crypto private key is a long number but how long is it exactly?
3:50 What is 2 to the 256?
5:00 Unfathomably big numbers!
8:00 Molecules and sand!
13:00 Eddington
Private keys that control cryptocurrencies are taken from a large number set. A really large number set. So large, in fact, that it's almost impossible for most of us to understand how large it is. Which makes it hard for us to understand why someone can't just guess our private key. In this edition of Down the Rabbit Hole Andreas asks himself how a human can visualize the incredible unlikeliness that someone will be able to guess your private key as he combines three of his favorite topics, cryptocurrency, physics, and astronomy! How many grains of sand are there on a beach? How about on planet Earth? How many molecules of silica in the Milky Way? How many crypto private keys are there?
This question is from the October Open Topic Livestream Q&A, which took place on October 24th, 2020. Watch the entire video here: • October Open Topic Liv... . If you want to ask questions early (before the live event), become a Community Builder on Patreon: / aantonop In addition to asking questions early, Patrons get behind-the-scenes content, custom swag, and much more.
Related Videos:
Bitcoin Q&A: What is a Private Key? - • Bitcoin Q&A: What is a...
Bitcoin Q&A: How Do Mnemonic Seeds Work? - • Bitcoin Q&A: How Do Mn...
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Thanks for watching!

[@AustinGarvelink]

"So you're telling me there's a chance." - Llyod Christmas, Dumb and Dumber

[@HectorGonzalez-vp1ss]

He had a better chance guessing your private key than hooking up with that girl

[@ben-ww7ks]

how improbable does something have to be before its deemed impossible? guessing the correct private key? 2 people creating the same private key in their wallets? 2 people having the same dna in a murder investigation? what are the chances a cat plays beethoven on piano or writes functioning computer code if it jumps on the keys? can the simplest known life form with 531000 dna building blocks containing 473 genes and each dna has 4 letters a c t and g come about by chance even though the possible combinations of dna exceed the number of atoms in the universe? if you see a house do you say it must exist by chance or that it was designed and built by intelligent design even though you never saw it built? did life and the universe come from nothing or from so called quantum fluctuations? "hebrews 3:4 Of course, every house is constructed by someone, but the one who constructed all things is God." is your god chance or intelligent design?

[@tvvoty]

​@@ben-ww7ks Things are only improbable when there are a lot of variants that are picked by one at random. As for the universe - it either was created by god or it wasn't. So from the point of probability it's 50\50. However, the probability that the universe was created by any god humans created in their stories is close to zero.

[@miroslavklika9073]

So you're telling me you came up with the same thought at the same time and we both post it here? How probable is that? 😀

[@SirPoekie]

lol

[@oisyn]

In case someone's wondering, 2^256 = 115,792,089,237,316,195,423,570,985,008,687,907,853,269,984,665,640,564,039,457,584,007,913,129,639,936

[@oscargarza6869]

Omg that video just blew my mind. I was laughing most of the time. I have heard you talk about this using the sand analogy, but never to this extent 😅

[@miroslavklika9073]

So you're telling me there's a chance... Lloyd Christmas

[@zonnovate8809]

Lol is this an inside joke?

[@ttassberkane1]

The risk is not the number of available private keys, it is the random algorithm that the wallet uses to pick one of those keys.

[@krishnayogi]

That's exactly the issue and many people got screwed by this already

[@kevincmiles-cn6un]

Yes, it would be nice to see a follow up video on the best and worst ways to generate and safely store private keys.

[@aantomop4795]

And how big is this risk would you say? Sounds it needs to be explained in the video more.

[@anshuman2089]

Name one.

[@proper_noun436]

I guess we'll have to play the waiting game of the entire timeline of the life of the universe to see if it ever fails

[@robtmil51]

Go to the equator and deal a trillion hands. Take a step, repeat. When you arrive at your starting point remove a drop from the Pacific ocean, repeat. When it's empty, refill it and put a card on the ground repeat all. When the cards reach the sun repeat 3000 times, your private key is in there somewhere.

[@notowar5560]

Andreas, you are amazing, always with the best explanations. Thanks for your massive effort to make Bitcoin, the tech behind and the principles, easy to understand. The crypto community owes you a lot.

[@JarolCuellarValle]

This is magisterial, and way beyond funnier than expected! Thank you so much!

[@cuzinevil1]

I've got a good one. I did the math on this and this is what I found; Trying to guess a private key, say you could try a key every second and everyone on the planet is too. It would take 75% longer than the universe has existed for someone to guess it. This is assuming of course the are no duplicate guesses.

[@cuzinevil1]

@@zimskasalamaa Yeah except it's a 1,000,000,000,000,00,000,000...198 more zeros to 1 chance.

[@WhiteHenny]

Most people use addresses which are 160 bit hashes of public keys. To spend those coins I don't need to know their private key. Any private key whose public key hashes to the same address will do. So I "only" have to search 2^160 = 10^48 = less than one galaxy's worth of silica atoms to steal their money, not the whole universe.

[@krishnayogi]

Well ya

[@TheLinuxYes]

Good deal Now it will take only 500 years to do it

[@debloqueenbloque]

I can’t understand how this doesn’t have 21 Million views at least, btw loved the data about the Eddington number it adds to the to the etherial side of Bitcoin. Thanks for the work Andreas 👌

[@drbennyboombatz9195]

Shoulda went 2 to the 257 just make sure😝

[@EvelinoBelloli]

Let’s round it to 260 to Be on the safe side...

[@xenobob2773]

Imma goin with 2 to the 3072 (RSA).

[@davidthomas9947]

This is why you should create a "passphrase" for your hardware wallet.

[@TheLinuxYes]

Thank you

[@margaritopineda3490]

My favorite video of yours so far, thank you!

[@Gyro50]

My issue with this is no matter how slim the chance is, it’s still security through obscurity. A private key should be compared to generating a username, not the password. In that sense, a centralized entity will always have the upper hand due to simply being able to tell you “that username already exists”. Although there are a slew of other problems with central authorities, this is one that simply doesn’t exist for them (all things being equal). It really feels like a practical (hybrid) approach should be taken when considering how keys are generated for your blockchain even though this is looked down upon as not being fully decentralized. That sounds all fine and well until someone happens to get the same seed/private key as you without being nefarious, and there are no protections against it.

[@weirdwordcombo]

Your post proves once more that humans can't comprehend these numbers. Rather worry about being struck by lightning.

[@volvo09]

I heard the sand perspective before (on all of earth) and I thought that was a lot, but didn't realize that was FARRRRR from the real "visual" of the question. Thank you!

[@reinhard3209]

Awesome! Thank you, Andreas for this fascinating content. 👍👍

[@gpirker]

Wow! Mind-blowing! Thank you so much for the explanation!

[@bentaye]

I think you underestimated the amount of sand on Tatooine

[@sebastianr.7089]

THIS!

[@Mimeniia]

Nicolas has spoken.

[@txtpeer5179]

Nop

[@txtpeer5179]

You mean Arrakis .

[@bentaye]

@@txtpeer5179 I meant Tatooine. However I am happy to concede if you have numbers to back up that Arrakis has orders of magnitude more sand than Tatooine

[@zonnovate8809]

Amazing video! Ever since learning about the wonders of Bitcoin I had this itching question, hearing the answer every time just blows my mind again and again.

[@cryptosipto7955]

This is an amazing video that makes my head spin 10 to the 77. Thanks for the simple explanation! You rock, I mean you grain of sand!

[@jamesjaneway2115]

Enjoyed this lighthearted program. Please do more! 🤣

[@kickinit333]

Great way to explain that. Throw in Ledgers and Trezors Passphrase feature and the number becomes more than all the atoms in every possible parallel universe and dimension. Cheers.

[@AlanBilsborough]

It was a very similar video many years ago that first attracted me to Bitcoin. Hope this one attracts lots of new Bitcoiners. Very well described as usual Andreas. Would love a follow up with quantum computing. I know you've done some in the past but perhaps one at this basic level of guessing numbers.

[@_FightForYourFreedom_]

So brilliantly explained it had me grinning the whole time. Thank you Andreas for sharing your unequaled clarity of thinking and explaining!!

[@erikvanbrussel5304]

2^256 = around 10^77. I followed until 10^52 and I shouted "come on, I don't believe you!".... but I just realized we just do the math here, nothing to believe or not. It just is.

[@quietapplause1]

Loved that explanation!!

Brilliantly explained, as always 👏🏻

[@jstevens2127]

Thanks Andreas, I enjoyed the mental ride through the Universe.

[@LuxuryListingsTours]

very cool explanation

[@GIRRIG001]

That was cool, Thanx. got a subscriber!

[@mimovilidadescolar9770]

Out the blue this question came to my mind. Exclent explanation.

[@rachel3340]

Thank you so much! I've been trying to work out how private keys can be unique forever (unique forever, not that I've been wondering forever).

[@DukeFan99]

This was the most helpful video in my understanding and appreciation of bitcoin

[@martiniturraspe7743]

Absolutely amazing

[@gianmariaroccoli]

Huge lesson. thanks for existing Andreas

[@daniel_dipo]

So... you are telling me that I have a chance to pick right? Yay ;-) Thanks, GREAT video!

[@pajkeav]

A wonderful explanation. Thank you.

[@maxxcetera3405]

Thanks Andreas.

[@farral]

It's fascinating! Why I haven't learned this in the school and instead have to look for such interesting things in my 40s 🤦🏻‍♂️

[@zonnovate8809]

School teaches you math and other subjects just enough so you can do the jobs they need, never to empower you with real inspirational knowledge and skills.

[@tradersendeavors]

@@zonnovate8809 Thanks to school, "Satoshi Nakamoto" knew the math to create Bitcoin

[@zonnovate8809]

@@tradersendeavors School is one body of information, but not the only one can become educated. Who knows if he learnt the math he used to create Bitcoin from school or from other means like books. I’m not against school because it has many positives, being a medium from which you can learn and form an education, but there is a also a negative side to school just like everything in life has. You can’t forget that school is ultimately a business, a business with interests that might not align with yours. For instance it may be more profitable for school to produce students who will become workers rather then inventors, thinkers, creatives, thus they are disincentivised to develop that entrepreneurial side is student who align more to that. This is one example. It doesn’t apply to everyone, but I certainly felt school didn’t develop me in the ways I wanted and the ways I was most strongest at, I always saw it as meaningless and surface-level means to get a degree, to then work for a company. I dropped out of high-school and became a successful entrepreneur. I remember in business studies we learnt nothing whereas now me running my own business, actually learning practically, not just sitting in a classroom, it’s a whole new world.

[@zaktivibe161]

absolutely amazing thank you so much for putting it into perspective

[@brentpiper7202]

So helpful! Thanks for your work and clear thinking!

[@etiennez0r846]

One thing is there is almost infinite number of keys available but another thing is the possibility of the algorithm in charge of generating a key generates twice the same key. i’m not saying it’s very possible but i think the algorithm in charge is very important, must not be poorly designed. In tekken 7 (a fighting video game) when you select a random stage most of the time the same stage appears lol

[@pt5820]

That was a fascinating way of putting it!

[@yenny1894]

You are a gem thanks for teaching us what you know.

[@m0ose22]

This was fascinating. Thank you

[@ronalds5902]

Little “X” symbol!!!! Love it

[@marlonjones.bullsondablock3145]

truly nerdy yet very very cool thought experiment

[@CrMichaelsHODLs]

Brilliant! And who created all this, I'm humbled.

[@jeff-jo6fs]

....so you're telling me there's a chance

[@mlint6755]

Love the complaint tool you built into your site!!! lol

[@aantonop]

Glad you like it - LOL. I'm always surprised at how many people complain about free content. Happy you share my sense of humour.

[@Kikopua]

That was awesome 🧡

[@thoth1652]

Complain by using the X in the top right corner. Brilliant!!

[@SM-xb8pq]

Great teacher!!

[@noctavel]

Saw this live, but seeing again because it is awesome

[@Lunaticoin]

Enorme. Thank you Andreas

[@U2Berror]

This was really cool

[@magcitrate]

Amazing. I didn’t realize the enormity of the possible numbers. Thanks to you my friend. I understood BTC when I 1st started researching years ago. I’m now jobless, but I don’t care. BTC has been taking good care of my family.

[@eddiechou5706]

During my teaching. The world population has 2^33. 77 is just a number that we not able to visualize.

[@mpowacht]

My favorite bitcoin Sheldon Cooper. But seriously, very educational as always.

[@ivarbaratheon264]

Crypto, physics and astronomy. Im all ears Mr antonopolous

[@cryptohenri]

Carl Sagan would like this

[@blissofkundaliniyoga]

Loved it

[@leonelmolbert784]

Just gone to a trip. This sh-tss so alien. Beautiful

[@bitcoin-unide7722]

Love it!

[@Dan13Speed]

Interesting. So would I be correct to say that, if you had an industrial size super computer in Nigeria that was crunching out hundreds of trillions of random private keys every nanosecond, this machine would ultimately steal someone's bitcoin at some point. It would be like mining for diamonds, where you crash hundreds of tons of rock for that tiny precious diamond?

[@WeiFinder]

I get that 10 to the 77 is an unimaginably impressive number, but we do have super computers. What would happen if the most powerful supercomputer in the world were to identify all private keys, and then just cross-reference those that have a balance over 100,000$.. How long would that take, and is it even feasible?

[@simonjamesodell]

If you had access to a super computer capable of checking 1 Trillion ( 10^9 ) per second, it would do 10^10 in 10 seconds, 10^11 in 100 seconds, 10^12 in 1000 (10^3) seconds, 10^13 in 10^4 seconds, 10^14 in 10^5 seconds .... that's 100,000 seconds or 1.15 days... let's just round that to one day ... 10^15 would take 10 days, 10^16 = 100 days, 10^17 = 1000 days, lets call that 3 years... 10^18 = 30 years, 10^19 = 300 years.... after this the numbers really start to get quite silly, and you have still checked way way less than 0.01% of the total available.

[@WeiFinder]

👁️👄👁️

[@Tonysmithmusic]

brilliant !!

[@zamboner]

The beauty of nature(randomness), is that a "lighting" can theoretically strike same spot twice in the universe.

[@TheLinuxYes]

Earth is far from the universe

[@zamboner]

@@TheLinuxYes who talked of earth ? How about intergalactic storms and nature.. or being hit by a comet.. whatever makes you happy.. improbable don't mean impossible, period. Adding an extra word truly makes it infinite ♾

[@TheLinuxYes]

@@zamboner i agree. Stay with banks. They get bailed out by the public on a regular basis

[@zamboner]

@@TheLinuxYes So accepting a system without questioning it or looking for it's limits or way to improve it is the way to go or you're against it ? You ser actually sound like the idiotic prototype following the legacy system without questioning 🤦‍♂️

[@liamball8335]

And Multisig multiplies all of that by 3. (or 5 or whatever your multisig is)

[@leeshill3057]

Brilliant....i dont feel so old now...its just numbers...😎

[@pacomovi]

A question from my side about numbers...how big of a chance is it, to find a Hash mining Bitcoin with a Raspberry Pi or the old USB Miner? You could be lucky to guess the right Hash, because It's like a lottery, correct?

[@jayofman]

Oh my. That was mind blowing! How many grains of sand was that again😳 Yeah I guess that drives home the message don't lose possession your private keys.🙂

[@Topsnap_Podcast]

I GOT IT... & MY MIND IS BLOWN!!!🤯

[@JA-nk7tj]

fokin nailed it :D great job!

[@6006133]

This is to get your family/friends off the lottery. Tell them about Satoshi's wallet and that there is a 1 in 2**256 chance they will gain access when they create a new seed.

[@Stardust3108]

Ok - convincing. But what if the random generator in a ledger hardware wallet, which creates seeds tends to generate certain seeds, because it is not able to generate each numbers with the same probability. Is this completely studied?

[@antvids05]

Yes! I love this topic

[@marcelogurdian4890]

Pure Gold!

[@brother6000]

Very cool.

[@redwineblackpiano]

The crazy fact that I own one atom in the universe with some bitcoin stashed inside it. Try to find it guys !

[@yoelbenarosch2113]

Just to make sure I understood this correctly... 10 to the 77 is a pretty small number right?

[@pieterwald1646]

Great!

[@rikschoonbeek]

Fascinating. What about the ratio between the amount of private keys that can be generated in a given unit of time compared to the total amount of possible private keys. Can that be realistically estimated?

[@silentbranch]

“Alright, let’s take all of the galaxies, *F U C K I T* ”

[@xenobob2773]

Possible positions in the Game of Go - 10 ^ 180. So all the atoms in the Universe, with each atom having a Universe of atoms inside it (10 ^ 154) plus change ;)

[@mackab5179]

Excellent

[@RockyB136]

Mind blown !

[@mariuspacevicius403]

Thank you!!!!!!!!!!

[@551mili]

Can we reduce that number if we assume that ledger and some well known walletes use similar words to combine this number wich as i understand we use English worlds generet this numbers that means that this number are limited used not in fully capacity im i correct, sorry for my bad English

[@georgeyoungblood3090]

Andreas, if you ever see this, can you describe what you think quantum computing will do to the security of bitcoin and the effect it will have on cryptocurrencies as a whole? I am curious because I think that quantum computers could be used to somehow impact the crypto space given one of its touted applications is the decryption of various applications we consider secure today. If quantum computing becomes ubiquitous and anyone can use it, will that impact the security of crypto? One thing that stands out about bitcoin is that many speculate that its price will just keep going up due to everything that makes it valuable. Could quantum computing impact that?

[@stevolanddownunder3549]

I heard that so long as you don't send any outward transactions from your wallet , then it remains Quantum resistant. Inward transactions apparently don't effect wallets Quantum resistance.

[@mpmaliag]

I think Andreas Antonopoulos' brain is a supercomputer if not quantum.

[@Stardust3108]

Can you take a look at the danger of centralization in blockchain staking and compare it with the danger of centralization through bitcoin mining?

[@santaclauz2000]

Oh well, that’s truly amazing

[@123scanman]

If they guess your keys then get them to guess the winning lottery numbers. It's much easier to do.

[@elkiq95]

Dude!!! You make calculations so scary.

[@j33prang]

What about the checksum that is used in the key, Andreas as surely this would reduce the amount wouldn't it. Actually i'd like to know how the checksum works. No doubt you have a video on that somewhere.

[@user-fw6sp5jn2e]

Which is your opinion about nash exchage. It is a non custodial exchage

[@grahamhill9461]

I feel smarter now

[@stock7628]

Very interesting