Canadian Banks Own The Regulators with Hilliard Macbeth.

Canadian Banks Own The Regulators with Hilliard Macbeth. The Canadian Housing Market CRASH and Debt Bubble! Me and Hilliard back in 2022 talked about the Canadian Debt Bubble. It is unbelievable looking back watching this video considering the carnage in the economy and housing market.
Hilliard's book when the bubble bursts: amzn.to/3L19wji | Follow @hmacbe on X
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0:00 - Intro/Preview
1:00 - Was 2021 the euphoria stage of the Minsky cycle?
12:22 - Minsky Moment
13:12 - Steve Keen thoughts
15:00 - Government involvement
17:30 - Giving down payment gifts
19:30 - Co-signing mortgage risk
21:50 - England in the GFC
24:34 - Nobody could see this coming NOT.
26:28 - OSFI and regulators in bed with the banks
29:50 - 1990s bubble
32:00 - So much bigger than 2008 in the US
35:00 - Japanese bubble
35:50 - Currency slump in a banking crisis
38:50 - Home capital group
40:00 - Banks survive but don't thrive
41:05 - Prices reverting to trend
44:40 - Bonus
#Canadian #HousingMarket #crash

[@MarketManiaPodcast]

Due to the popularity of the previous interview I decided to post this one. This interview was done in May of 2022. Apologies for the audio. Near the end of this interview Hilliard warns people about putting all your wealth in real estate. Right now in 2024 he was proved correct. Follow @hmacb on X he puts out some amazing charts Get 3 months FREE from my VPN provider Express VPN: www.expressvpn.com/marketmania

[@RunnerNinja]

Great podcast, Luke! Unlike a lot of podcasters, you actually let your guests speak without interruption. With 4 decades of experience, Hilliard is definitely someone we need to listen to and respect!

[@dirtlump]

Hilliard Macbeth is one of the most astutue visionaries regarding Canadian Real Estate metrics/Banking/Financial System analysis for over twenty years now.... if this Guy is talking ? people SHOULD be listening .... because very simply, he is brilliant !

[@xYoungDeezYx]

he's a "visionary" alright... he's been calling for a crash in real estate for the last 15 years... any day now...

[@dirtlump]

@@xYoungDeezYx Never said "any day now" .... ever ! He said "unsustainable" And if you intend he has been highlighting the metrics indicative of a correction you would be correct. No secret Canadian GDP in 2013 was $1.86T supporting a combined $1.3T in Mortgage/Consumer DEBT.....that rapid DEBT growth from barely $900B in 2009 being of sufficient concern the Harper Gov't implemented BAIL IN provisions for Canadian Banks in the March 2013 Omnibus Finance Bill. Roll ahead another 10 years to 2023.... and Canadian GDP has barely grown.... stagnant in fact to now barely ~$2.1T having been no more than 'papered over' with low-rate fueled FALSE demand Real Estate Price appreciation to a now staggering ~$3+ Trillion combined Mortgage/Consumer DEBT. "3" isn't supported very well by "2".... especially when you only way you even barely maintain the "2" is by continually expanding that "3" by borrowing. Eventually.... you just plain run out of future capacity to leverage against. Unsustainable is just that.... UNsustainable. It matters not "when" that unsustainability manifests in a Crisis.... only that can you maintain your "Normalcy Bias" and sleep well huh ?

[@user-zv3kd8xs6g]

There was also offshoring of good jobs in the early 90's. Lots of people found themselves pounding the pavement while they paid those high interest rate mortgages. Many builder's homes were unsold making it appear like there was an oversupply of houses. Lots of power of sales and bankruptcies. At this time IT became the new thing. Lots of people did C++ and Cisco courses to change their careers.

[@terryevp4084]

I watched this in 2022, and It was so educating. Many Thanks again Luke

[@asmrfan6543]

So much good information here. Had to re-watch some parts to ponder all the implications in all business dealings!

[@MarketManiaPodcast]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@donmacquarrie9161]

@@MarketManiaPodcast can you do a vlog about who owns the "Bank of Canada"?

[@shawnschafer9795]

Great video, that was my first housing book I read. That's super sweet you had him show. Great interview 👍

[@prao4603]

good interview, this type of content is better than the fluffier ones you do with random news articles btw

[@nickjohnston3882]

Luke, have you considered scheduling a follow-up interview with Hilliard? I'm curious to hear his thoughts on today's market, particularly regarding what's happening with Nvidia.

[@TREMVan]

In 1989 in Japan, the country was still running a current account surplus. It was still massive. Does Canada have a current account surplus right now?

[@randyhuke3773]

A house is not an entitlement. A house is a privilege realized after years of hard work !

[@gregfraser8784]

A realtor talking about the housing bubble doesn't help with sales. So most realtors say real estate always goes up because in a 30 year time frame it does go up. Owning a house is a hedge against inflation in the very long term. Real estates rise 4-6X in last 20 years is not normal and probably will stagnate over next 20 years. Picking the top of the bubble is not easy, we could be close to the top.

[@Aitch-102]

Realtors know nothing.

[@gregfraser8784]

@@Aitch-102I have met genius realtors and less competent ones. Most of them are ethical people with high integrity.

[@Aitch-102]

@@gregfraser8784 LMAO

[@gregfraser8784]

@@Aitch-102 you must have been in the wrong places to meet the wrong realtors. I am serious when I say 95% realtors are honest, ethical people full of integrity. Surprising I know. The public perceptions needs work. The worst people I find are family law lawyers, a profession that should be banned.

[@Mycochef]

And Tiff is on the Board of the Scotia Bank. Conflict? Most likely.

[@randyhuke3773]

The Canadian dollar is not even included in the top 20 currencies in the world and this has been true for 20 years. The dollar is not traded in high volumes, so minimal trading activity can affect the value of the dollar. Just snowbirds heading south in the Spring has an impact on the value of the Cdn. dollar. The govt. literally can buy up Cdn. dollars on the currency markets and artificially raise the value of the dollar.

[@TREMVan]

Have on formafist Luke!!!

[@chesspain6704]

Tulip mania is a real problem and part of the human condition.

[@BenjaminBatista-xz1fl]

From $37K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.

[@LarryJohnson400]

Could you please explain how beginners like me can start making this much 😢

[@DanielJoseph-in6fe]

Last week, I tried trading on my own and ended up losing $3K

[@BenjaminBatista-xz1fl]

I have Alex Robert to thank

[@BenjaminBatista-xz1fl]

He is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT here in the States.

[@Shaunakruse-wd2yk]

Yes!!! That's exactly his name (Alex Robert) so many people have recommended highly about him and am I just starting with him from Brisbane Australia 🇦🇺

[@ironmikekendall2506]

i cant think of a more useless mockery of a professional position than a bank regulator... absolute joke

[@RunnerNinja]

Great podcast, Luke! Unlike many podcasters, you let your guests speak without interruption. With 4 decades of experience, Hilliard is definitely someone we need to listen to and respect!

[@MarketManiaPodcast]

100% agree. And he is coming back on in September I am excited.