catan - SNEAKY win!

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What is Catan (Universe)?
Catan, previously known as The Settlers of Catan or simply Settlers, is a multiplayer board game designed by Klaus Teuber. It was first published in 1995 in Germany by Franckh-Kosmos Verlag (Kosmos) as Die Siedler von Catan. Players take on the roles of settlers, each attempting to build and develop holdings while trading and acquiring resources. Players gain points as their settlements grow; the first to reach a set number of points, typically 10, wins. The game and its many expansions are also published by Catan Studio, Filosofia, GP, Inc., 999 Games, Κάισσα, and Devir.
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[@robertholder]

Welcome back!

[@delishadish]

4/9/11 was the right pick. if you leave that open from blue, he absolutely runs away with the game. instead he got a weak 3 hex spot with a bunch of useless wood and a 4 ore that was blocked for large parts of the game. And yeah when in doubt...build the road. Makes your hand smaller and would have given you another orbit this game.

[@martinstrahle878]

Thnx for a good game

[@Funglutton]

I think you need to look at the probability that you go over 7 during the next orbit. Your hand management really hurt you in this game. It was clear Black and Blue were fighting and Green is robbing Blue. When you have 2x production on 6-9-10, an 8, and when the 6 is highly unlikely to be blocked as a triple-shared hex, starting an orbit with 4 cards is unwise if you can reduce it down to 3 instead. I dont know the exact odds but it wouldn't surprise me if your odds of 7ing out are halved if you do this.

[@fisher00769]

I just wanted the point out the least important moment in this game where you don't rob from green because they are on 8 cards. Here's the thing: if you rob them, they lose 1 card guaranteed. If you don't rob them, they have a 42% chance of losing at least 4 cards. So on the surface, not robbing them seems correct, but it's a bit more complicated. You roll first, now if you roll a 7, you could just steal from green again, and if you don't roll a 7 then chances are they will go over again, because they're on every number except 2 and 12. Black also rolls before green, and if you bring them under, and black rolls a 7, this incentivizes black to rob green as well. I haven't done the exact EV calculation, because it's really complicated, but I think there is at least an argument to be made to consider robbing green, even if they are on 8 cards.