This professor has a formula to predict the 2016 election

American University professor Allan Lichtman joins CBSN to discuss his predictions for the 2016 race.

[@diddoinarow8846]

Dude was right in 2016, and he's still right now in 2020, even with some small error margins he correctly predicted almost every election. That's scarily impressive

[@hamstersaregood9302]

Does he have a formula for the Senate?

[@adiossoydaniel]

@@hamstersaregood9302 officially not, but maybe the presidential one applies there too

[@grimaffiliations3671]

His formula works as far back as a 100 years

[@Tempe415]

he wasn't right in 2000 but people still say he is for some reason

[@angrychickenyt]

@@Tempe415 He was using it for Popular vote. He changed it after 2000 to predict electoral winnner. So in 2000, his formula predicted the winner it was looking for.

[@whatdood]

lmao that girl is just facebookin away in the background

[@malsh5608]

she could be a CBSN facebook mod

[@danjohnston1345]

Dudes good. Weird, science works. I wish I paid attention in school.

[@greg5011]

Predict this. Election, 1980-Style. There was only one presidential debate in 1980 between challenger Ronald Reagan and President Jimmy Carter. Just two days before the October 28 debate, Carter was eight points ahead in the Gallup poll. Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed. A Gallup Poll of July 26, 1988, showed Michael S. Dukakis leading George H. W. Bush by 17 points. The New York Times reported,

[@milogang3440]

Thats why I dont trust the polls

[@1survivor566]

For those interested, the professor still hasn't made a prediction yet. Although a couple of weeks ago he said he's counted five strikes against a Hillary win. If there is a sixth, he thinks Trump wins the election.

[@CLASHROYALE-mn5wj]

He was right tho

[@Pixley7]

He predicted Biden would win in 2020

[@pinheadlarry8006]

Helmut Norpoth's model, which has correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 elections, gives Trump a 91-95% chance of reelection.

[@pinheadlarry8006]

Helmut Norpoth's model, which has correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 elections, gives Trump a 91-95% chance of reelection.

[@jacobr6698]

Pinhead the last 27 elections goes back to the 1910s. How can the model correctly predict elections that happened before Helmut Norpoth was born

[@normalhuman6581]

@Dwboutit drink Lysol

[@elijahsabo3846]

#Trump2020

[@joeyleroy6877]

SMART GUY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@joshcohen3712]

Joey Leroy ikr!!

[@aaroncain403]

Do you still agree he’s smart now that he’s saying Trump will lose in 2020?

[@user-ue2lx6py9j]

@@aaroncain403 hahah I was just about to ask that

[@user-ue2lx6py9j]

@@aaroncain403 papa bless

[@aaroncain403]

@Sean Bayly I didn’t say he was smart. Mr. Leroy here did. I was just pointing out that in the last election conservatives were in love with this guy because of his prediction. And now they’re all calling him a paid shill or a quack because his most recent prediction doesn’t fit their narrative or false-reality where Trump is going to some how miraculously win in a land slide even though he didn’t win in a land slide last time and now this election is on the heels of a pandemic and a recession under his watch.

[@rjwalker6677]

I'm not impressed at all that he has predicted every Presidential election correct since 1984. I'm no expert , and yet even I have only gotten one wrong since 1972. (I had thought Gore would beat Bush in 2000, and some would say I was still right). The fact of the matter is that most of the modern elections were predictable, especially once the debates were all done and the best polls released . The Gore/Bush election was an exception. That's about it. I haven't picked a winner for 2016 yet, because the debates haven't happened yet, which to me is everything. But this could be one of those rare elections that are not so predictable.

[@ThePointintheheart]

Awaiting his prediction!

[@phuckerby]

Right now I'd put everything I own on Trump winning! 😂🤣😂🤣😂

[@disingenuous4899]

get ready to be homeless

[@ricardobarahona3939]

Biden will probably win, it all depends on the results in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. It can be crazy. In my home state of NC it went with Trump in 2016 but also voted in Democrats to be Governor, attorney general, and many other positions. It can also happen where there will be a split in the party vote for the presidential and the senate results.

[@jonathandevereaux2723]

@Venomous of course you will, what else do you have going on in your life.

[@disingenuous4899]

Lol

[@BabySonicGT]

Pay up

[@WASAIDANCE]

LOL impossible to find this video in 2019!

[@karthikmitta4134]

im watching this 2 weeks before the actual election, and this guy is all over the news now!

[@Cnut_the_grape]

He was right again lmao

[@JennyOwnzable]

Okay. Both conventions are over. Prediction?

[@tonyquintanilla7969]

Dems should listen and focus on talking about achievements.

[@Maxumized]

He could sell a car from a picture

[@RepublicConstitution]

Will Lichtman fight Helmut Norpoth?

[@LXNL]

Time for another Allan Lichtman interview. What are you guys waiting for to call him in? And call in Rachel Bitecofer as well.

[@tinacrew]

He said Biden to the New York Times

[@darwinwatterson1050]

He got Al Gore wrong.

[@simpso8753]

and hopefully the 2024 election😆😆😆😆😆

[@emowithagun5828]

al gore lost by 500 votes

[@kylejenkinsemail]

1984 called, they want their haircut back

[@barryd6153]

yoooooooo

[@ignaciojavierkairuzeguia599]

You mean his wig

[@jefftacsin911]

its trump u can see it how can this country elect hillary whats bill clinton be the first man u can see the media just focusing on trump bc hes such a bossess grinch america loves these people trumpp will be elected

[@petebatfish1373]

the MSM could not possibly accept this man. He does not use polsters and beltway ivory tower prognosticators

[@nekad2000]

That is one saucy wig.

[@keithwaites9991]

Well I'd vote for his wig anytime

[@keithwaites9991]

Not trump's wig, as he doesn't wear one

[@georgewashington8191]

3:30 No... A year before this video aired on TV Bernie Sanders was saying that he'd support whichever Democrat is nominated. Remember Bernie Sanders, a self-described Independent, is generally more of a Democrat than others in office. His life story is an uphill fight against conservative Democrats: Civil rights, workers' rights, gay rights, women's rights. Democratic officials have been reluctant to embrace these issues. For example, "I didn't want my kids growing up in a 'racial' jungle" 1977 Joe Biden was among Democratic forces opposed to ending segregation, siding with Republicans on the issue. Also, Clinton was against federally legalizing gay marriage up until 2012, having sided with Republicans on the issue against her fellow Democrats. These conservatives within the Democratic party were pillars of intolerance defending systems of discrimination and injustice. Not until they flipped was segregation ended federally and gay marriage legalized federally

[@hamstersaregood9302]

Does he have a formula for the Senate?

[@StoopidMonkiy]

i feel stupid

[@AcuRobbie]

look like Bloo if he was 70yrs old

[@HS-vb7nk]

Can he come back to make another prediction for 2020?

[@vr1175]

He just did on NYT website.

[@Pixley7]

He predicted Biden would win

[@HS-vb7nk]

@@Pixley7 went? That is a 2016 video.

[@Pixley7]

hannah smith Yeah he was in a new, New York Times video and he predicted Biden would win

[@HS-vb7nk]

@@Pixley7 Thank you, I got to see the new video.

[@simpso8753]

why is youtube showing me this video now🥴🥴🥴🥴🥴

[@jarretvoice3183]

Don't list

[@peace-yv4qd]

And in 2017 he predicted Trump will be impeached. I wouldn't buy food from this guy if I were starving.

[@sarahlynn7562]

Dwboutit he was literally impeached. you guys are so stupid. there are official documents

[@Profligateslayer]

Sarah Lynn you can be impeached for basically anything. It means nothing.

[@DepthUnchecked]

An Egg With 500 Subs yep that’s why only 4/45 have been impeached

[@DepthUnchecked]

So why didn’t they get impeached... this seems to prove my point

[@DepthUnchecked]

If it isn’t that serious then why has is only happened four times

[@jarretvoice3183]

Yea Christmas you don't listen

[@richardlamb5888]

This guy and Helmut Norpoth were correct. Larry Sabatao bless him was out by 90 in the electoral college.

[@jsh020]

Now 2020 is fascinating cause both those 2 are on opposite sides now. Alan is saying Biden and Norpoth is saying Trump.

[@chriskimandchloe9397]

So pretty much he can't predict the way he thinks then?i mean if he predicts shit two years in advance the wtf it's five months away?this makes no sense!!annoying

[@jarretvoice3183]

Still can you just

[@jarretvoice3183]

Did you

[@ramata1962]

Has anybody looked into this guy? He seems just creepy. I see no scientific or popular argument that's has any basis in reality.

[@keithwaites9991]

Its his wig, it's hypnotising me,...help.!

[@shyblondebbw]

Okay the conventions are over... lets hear the results... or predictions.

[@SuperCulloden]

Exactly... The conventions are long past, and his silence is deafening. Let's hope he is a Hillary supporter and what he 'foresaw' has driven him to truly super duper serious drinking, so much so, that it has left him totally incapable of climbing out of an alley on skid row.

[@TheMchugh996]

Or CBS will not let him back on to make his prediction. Knowing the media, Im probably right.

[@jarretvoice3183]

Ko rigth can still

[@dondaddah9141]

So he colluded w Russia? Lol

[@jarretvoice3183]

See you

[@ReconR]

Funny... No prediction here

[@akrenwinkle]

I'm trying to remember a more outrageous toupee, and come up with nada.

[@Xtremedude720]

*gorgeous

[@MrEconomics101]

So true! Nobody that old has that much hair or that hair color.

[@11sweetdixie]

My granny died in her 70's with all her hair & no gray. My dad died at 81 yo. He had a full head of hair & a few gray hairs in his sideburns. My 77 yo cousin's hair has not thinned & still natural color including her dark eyebrows. There must be a gene for that.

[@akrenwinkle]

11sweetdixie Why, yes, this dude's hair is real, not a rug. That said... I happen to be part owner of the Brooklyn Bridge, and I am willing to sell some of my shares at a very fair price. Contact me soon about it.

[@11sweetdixie]

I never said it was real. I was replying to Hunter Scott's comment that "nobody that old has that much hair or that hair color". Don't understand your need to direct a snarky remark to me. Just sayin' . . .

[@tysonb3568]

He ultimately predicted Trump would be the winner beforehand.

[@HL-iw1du]

welp

[@InteractiveIdea]

are you fucken kidding me???

[@dondaddah9141]

What's the point of his silly book if it doesnt have his answer to the books central question?

[@lesliemeola8209]

Remember it's 2020 everything is f'd up

[@bichlasagne3779]

Thank god he got it right again in 2020

[@JamarfromAfar]

This man actually did predict trump would win.

[@Pixley7]

He just predicted Biden would win now

[@rational-public-discourse]

This is one strange looking guy. So, he makes his living by making prediction before or after the primaries?

[@jacksonmadison9994]

It depends on the specific election year. He predicted 1984, 2008, 2012 a couple years early because the Keys were determined early on. In 2016 and 2020 he made his prediction a few months before the election because a lot of factors were not yet determined. He said he won’t predict 2024 until July/August because it depends on the situation in the Middle East / Ukraine and if the economy crashes.

[@tomwilson4277]

CBSN, this was over 5 min. that said nothing at all... Not "Fake News"... This was "no news" at all...lol

[@wrsawy]

The Jim Acosta wanna be can't except it.

[@SebinMatthew]

its 'accept' dumbo. uneducated trump voter.

[@wrsawy]

@@SebinMatthew can you accept a smack in the mouth?

[@sofinebyme]

I gave Biden the same test to Biden on his 40+ years in politics and came up with all false.

[@calyxprophet5221]

@James Remus Plus during that time Biden didn't present or sign any bills for the economy. Both Trump and Pence have both presented and signed bills that have helped the economy rise.

[@kolilmd9967]

@@calyxprophet5221 so? look whats happening now there is no point on talking about obama he isnt in office anymore

[@belkYT]

You should’ve done it only on his 2021- present term.

[@debf.21]

Haha

[@margojones2059]

WHAT A BUCH OF CRAP

[@jls5480]

I know

[@ej4122]

+JLS nope 😂

[@Colors.TF1]

Trump

[@Colors.TF1]

its my anitials

[@motivationispower988]

Trump will win

[@gilly4487]

Hillary will win.

[@Colors.TF1]

+Gilbert Vasquez don't let polls fool, Trump will win with a Landslide. Hillary couldn't even fill her convention nor can fill up rallies. she's may be HIV Positive or have brain damages.

[@yeoffthelegend6202]

Fran Ra lmaaaoook

[@jacksonmadison9994]

And now I expect Biden to win in 2024 as well. The only keys I see going False are -Midterm gains -Charismatic Incumbent -Foreign Policy Success

[@wrestlerguy24]

You don't see short term economy key as a loss? Even though technically the economy has been good for some time, the perception of it is horrible by much of the country. My understanding is, as a result, this perception of the country trumps the factual reality. Is this incorrect?

[@wrestlerguy24]

You don't see short term economy key as a loss? Even though technically the economy has been good for some time, the perception of it is horrible by much of the country. My understanding is, as a result, this perception of the country trumps the factual reality. Is this incorrect?

[@wrestlerguy24]

You don't see short term economy key as a loss? Even though technically the economy has been good for some time, the perception of it is horrible by much of the country. My understanding is, as a result, this perception of the country trumps the factual reality. Is this incorrect?

[@wrestlerguy24]

You don't see short term economy key as a loss? Even though technically the economy has been good for some time, the perception of it is horrible by much of the country. My understanding is, as a result, this perception of the country trumps the factual reality. Is this incorrect?

[@wrestlerguy24]

You don't see short term economy key as a loss? Even though technically the economy has been good for some time, the perception of it is horrible by much of the country. My understanding is, as a result, this perception of the country trumps the factual reality. Is this incorrect?

[@ohmusicsweetmusic]

in other words he colluded with the Russians to come up with his theory. LOLOL. This guy truly doesn't know.

[@disingenuous4899]

lol Trump colluded with Russians in 2016 then got impeached for doing it again in 2020