Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: Housing inflation is what we have to watch

Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Goolsbee's thoughts on the latest Core PCE data, why housing inflation is the sector the Federal Reserve needs to pay attention to, and if January's data has changed the monetary policy outlook.

[@stephanes.3921]

Prices are SOOOOOOO low! Pleaser print more money :)

[@AH-fm7rj]

🤣

[@RedorblueDontcareaboutyou]

If you put the fed in charge of the Sarah dessert, they would run out of sand

[@user-bj8nn7os1p]

❤😂

[@InnocentCardGame-sz2be]

So we are in 20's and 70's again. Where inflation is induced and rates are driven higher. Every 50 years. Priming the economy for the next generation. I suspected this. But wasn't sure. But now im 100% convinced.

[@dracorpgroup]

We are not looking at inflation correctly. We identify inflation with the continuing rise in prices and services. In 1971 President Nixon severed the link between gold and the dollar. This allowed the government to borrow more money, or another way of saying, to print more money. The constant deficits drove all this debt. It took the US from its creation to the year 2000 to accumulate $5.0 Trillion of debt against an economy of $12.0 Trillion. Since 2000 to today the debt has reached $32.0 Trillion against an economy of $25.0 Trillion. All this devalued the dollar. Whatever could be bought in 1971 with one dollar now requires $30 dollars. We are buying goods and services with devalued dollars. That is why a little house in 1971 that could be bought for $10,000 now costs $300,000 or thirty times as much. A dollar today is worth three cents against the 1971 dollar. So, what we see as inflation is really a reaction to the devaluation of the dollar.

[@JxLx2022]

Housing is BIG Domino... but the Fed can't influence all the borrowing and spending government is doing!!!! they are fighting each other..there are things now that are out of the Fed's control that impacts inflation.. too many people have low home loan interest rates that have no incentive of leaving... Increase rates!!! rates are too low now.. housing needs a big correction...

[@youtube_is_my_tv1898]

As much I think housing needs a big correction....I'm not sure raising rates helps that much. We need job loss or people wont give up their homes until they are forced too. Thinking we can keep housing in check without pain is impossible. At least with the fed's toolbox. I prefer a free market, but there is a housing shortage because home builders have become so consolidated and they control supply very tightly because of what happpend to them in 08-09. The last thing people stop paying even when stretched is their mortgage.

[@thedude5040]

There is no correction until the supply is drastically increased

[@frednicholson]

There are 10 million more people in the US now than in 2020. That's driving housing inflation to a large extent. 10Million/350 million is ~3% increase in people we need to house.@@youtube_is_my_tv1898 . Forget this leftist narrative that home builders are controlling supply. Total BS. Competition between builders can and will prevent that, assuming permits are approved. What's the time lag from permit application to grant? Years.

[@ISpitHotFiyaa]

They need to stop using owner-equivalent rent. It's a totally fictitious quantity but it's a huge part of CPI and the biggest component of housing inflation.

[@Fear.of.the.Dark.]

if they used actual housing inflation it would be much worse.

[@ryann8348]

@@Fear.of.the.Dark. real-time measures of the rent market are way lower than the CPI shelter inflation

[@user-ow1bn6qv8q]

@@ryann8348 Case Shiller home prices have rocketed higher since bottoming 1 year ago. Between February 2023 and December 2023 home prices were up 6%. That's 6% in 10 months. Rents are only one part of the equation. You have to account for inflation in home prices for first time home owners who make up 1/3 of all home purchases every year.

[@Fear.of.the.Dark.]

@@ryann8348 my rent got renewed for 9% increase YoY in greater Seattle.

[@SigFigNewton]

If they used actual data, they’d have already lowered interest rates, and housing prices would be increasing again, and they’d have to raise rates again. 90% sure that the reason they use owner’s equivalent rent is because it lags enough to give them cover to wait as long as they truly should

[@Steph1]

What’s your views: is housing gonna go up or down upcoming 12-24 months?

[@Dan-lr4hm]

I suspect up.

[@user-bj8nn7os1p]

Go up first and the once everyone’s in down sharply. It’s a dam, once everyone is in it’ll break. It’ll get there sooner fed drops the rates and everyone rush in again.

[@Alpharizzchad]

😅 banks and state are looking for more money and state looking for more Taxes. People forgot about 1980s interest with great credit was 19-21%. And by 1994 7% it's the cycle of life. And they smashed all the unions. Wake up genX and minales and Gen Z be nice to your parents 😅

[@Critikal4k]

Up😢

[@Zero11_ss]

No chance it goes down. Supply isnt there even for citizens and now we have hundreds of thousands of illegals under asylum seeker status who will push rents up once they stop getting free housing. NYC had almost 200k illegals so far. We didnt even build 50k new housing units

[@Joe-xf8zn]

Arizona AG has filed a lawsuit against corperate landlords price fixing rents. If is happening in Phoenix, it probably happening in other cities. If true it is criminal activity disguised as Inflation.

[@peterbedford2610]

Do you ever see him and Zandi in the same room??

[@3up3down.]

Isn’t housing inflation high because the interest rates are high?

[@InnocentCardGame-sz2be]

Ive been delivering to brand new apartment complexes. With 90% vacancy. Literally an empty parking lot. With 2 cars. Fresh smell of paint. Just one of many ive seen in recent months. But what do i know. Im just a delivery driver.

[@thedude5040]

It will be filled. Brand new, they may not have permits to go full occupancy yet.

[@joshlin8642]

something got to break. fed put them self into a corner again by saying they are done with hikes. And seeking 3 cuts by year end. market is all time high and you think rent will come down ? inflation have 3 waves, we are into second wave at this very moment.

[@rickhayes-oh2zm]

gas is up at the pumps. 80 bucks today. 100 next.

[@InnocentCardGame-sz2be]

"You will own nothing. And be happy" WEF

[@thedude5040]

Bro. The WEF is broke AF. The American upper middle class alone has vastly more resources than the WEF.

[@prolific1518]

Fed won't do a single thing that disrupts Biden's reelection. The Fed is political.

[@twinsiesyt]

If the Fed wanted to elect Biden, they would have lowered the interest rate by now. Nonsensical whining. Typical Trumpsters with little brain.

[@landlubber42069]

How is it "weird"? Lol. It's econ 101. You make mortgage rates more expensive, this forces more renters and PCE measures rent. Not rocket science.

[@nonenone1534]

Need more quantitive tightening - drive mortgage rates up and this will all correct real soon

[@InnocentCardGame-sz2be]

The question now is. Have we done enough? 5% rates will not be sufficiently high to lower over preceeding 4 decades. Need at least 10% 15% rates to give the next generation decades of falling rates.

[@rickhayes-oh2zm]

How about the viet nam wars you got going. Just like the 70's. They will be drafting the young American 's. They did for Viet Nam. Volunteer army is the best army.

[@melitoncarrillo9018]

Watch housing go down, when commercial real estate goes down.

[@thedude5040]

It won't.

[@melitoncarrillo9018]

Curious on why you say that?

[@thedude5040]

@melitoncarrillo9018 many home loans are backed with federal entities. There is also a critical shortage of housing units. Just because a giant office building value falls to zero, it won't have any immediate effect on supply of available housing units.

[@InnocentCardGame-sz2be]

Teach your kids. To prepare themselves financially. For we will go through this again. By 2070.

[@InnocentCardGame-sz2be]

1920's the mistakes were made with the Great depression. 1970's the mistakes were made with uncessary recessions 2020's the mistakes? We will find out in within 10 years.

[@moosejoose4]

russian bot alert

[@thedude5040]

I saw a comment about the WEF. So he's either a bot or a paranoid tweaker who shouts the end is near every year.

[@davebrucher5550]

Keep manipulating those numbers! It will catch up with you in the end game!

[@sins1367]

Dude, just watch bitcoin and financial conditions.

[@peterbedford2610]

Every economist in the US agrees that we are severely under-housed. Supply is overwhelmed by demand. That's the "inflation" you're way watching closely???

[@JoeDurbs]

Is he dreaming that goods inflation is down pre pandemic. I guess he does not go shopping.

[@methos-ey9nf]

Inflation rate going down doesn’t mean prices go down. That would require deflation which is scarier for the economy than inflation.

[@prolific1518]

​@@methos-ey9nf you're delusional. Hyperinflation is on the way if Biden is allowed to print and spend to prop the economy. Deflation is necessary and a recession is a normal business cycle. The economy is broken but Biden won't allow capitalism to play out.

[@kjay5056]

Deflation is not a bad thing if it doesn't last too long. But if price of goods goes down due to deflation, then inflation is not so bad. Just don't want 10 years of deflation.@@methos-ey9nf

[@zanebea3437]

Goods have not come down! Liar!

[@rickhayes-oh2zm]

I thought he was going to pump fake gold

[@paulstone3590]

Illegals need to live places too. 10 million have come in the last 3 years. They are competing for housing. Why it has stayed up.

[@urrealdad76]

wtf

[@eyelovecolorado2195]

Meet the smarted guy at the fed! I also feel that housing is the last domino to fall. And it’s a HUGE domino!!

[@googleaccount8864]

Sell off the mortgage backed securities at the Fed! That's what has caused housing inflation!

[@thedude5040]

No. Entirely wrong. What caused this housing inflation is a lack of building new housing units.

[@user-ow1bn6qv8q]

@@thedude5040 The ratio of housing units to population is the same as it was in the year 2000. We way over built in years leading up to the 2008 great financial crisis. We underbuilt in the following years. Supply is back to where it was 25 years ago as measured by ratio of units to population.

[@rickhayes-oh2zm]

This guy doesn't have a clue.

[@vikasd.7139]

Housing inflation is caused by high intrest rates. If rates are low, both rents and house prices will be under control (latter due to higher supply). You don't want to wish for house price deflation as that will be a slippery slope.

[@MLK1456]

Values will skyrocket so it will get worse if they lower rates.

[@thedude5040]

​@MLK1456 the OP clearly has no idea how money works. The fastest way to end housing inflation is to remove all local zoning boards and replace them with people who will change laws, zoning, and building codes for high density housing.

[@vikasd.7139]

@@MLK1456 They didn't last 15 years when rates were very low. there might be an initial spike. Inventory is the key.

[@user-ow1bn6qv8q]

@@vikasd.7139 Huh? Housing prices sky rocketed the last 15 years when rates were low. It was a Fed induced bubble on home prices. 10-15 years of 0% interest rates drove home prices up like crazy. Got all types of people into flipping homes. Rental empires. Airbnb empires. REITs. Corporations owning tons of homes. When you make interest rates super low that means investors have nowhere else to put their money. Bonds and treasury yields are insanely low. That drives investors and pensions into owning homes. It drives home prices up. All that capital has to go somewhere for a real return. This means real estate and stocks.

[@Fear.of.the.Dark.]

@@vikasd.7139 House prices didnt spike in last 15 years of low interest rates?