China's Currency Crisis as an Investment Opportunity

[@RealVisionPresents]

TIMESTAMPS: 00:01:50 How to Play China 00:11:49 The Hong Kong Banking System 00:14:36 2018 vs 1998 00:18:04 The Hong Kong Monetary Authority 00:23:19 Capital Flight from China 00:30:25 Endgame Scenarios 👉 Do you want even more content like this? And to see this video before we release it here? Become a member of Real Vision -- get started here: rvtv.io/membership

[@mattthompson6680]

this guy is brilliant

[@quietiger1288]

People tend to overestimate the magnitude of things that happen quickly and underestimate things that evolve gradually.

[@romlyn99]

I was thinking of using a Chinese company for a manufacturer. Head Office was in Hong Kong - Manufacturing was just 50 KM away in Mainland China. I had to pay them in USD. I could not pay them in CNY or HKD. So mainland China has purposefully made Hong Kong into a service economy - being the business front and money funneler of USD into the Chinese economy. Hong Kong companies are not allowed to have manufacturing in China - and still do business in HKD or CNY. If they want to have manufacturing in China and an Office in Hong Kong - they have to do business in USD - otherwsie they cannot do business. When Hong Kong was British run they could be an import export company - not have businesses in China - but do business with China. Now it is Chinese run - the Hong Kong companies were forced to move part of their business to China - then start doing import export in USD. And this was a requirement from the Chinese government... To weaken the power of the Hong Kong businesses. And to move the economic power of HongKong to mainland China. Part of Mainland China's power is from forcing Hong Kong companies to invest in mainland China... moving Hong Kong's economic might into China... and forcing Hong Kong to be the Financial Port for Mainland China. You cannot do import Export business with a Chinese company - unless you do it through Hong Kong - and you can only do business in USD.

[@nobodyli6543]

What is HK if there is no China?

[@cash_rey9760]

李博 free

[@truthreal4970]

thx for sharing ur experience, as a chinese in mainland, it means a lot to me, I start to understand what the CCP is. thx bro.

[@sleepytiger5945]

why dont you using your own country's company?

[@DaveBraga]

Kyle really knows his stuff.....and explains it wonderfully without being arrogant.

[@donettatrump2025]

Uhh, funny that Google is feeding this propaganda to the masses.

[@ecofriendly0]

DaveBraga lol and without blinking I might add, the motivation behind his words as a pro American anti ccp doubles up with his incentive to help hedge funds against all the forex fluctuations that will happen throughout the trade wars and now transfer of wealth outside to the western world. Perhaps Singapore and other financial powerhouses may get a huge chunk of the rewards from the undeniably disgusting tactics by Kyle

[@salmalatif6499]

Kyle knows jackshit

[@billcarney829]

I totally agree. He also has a sound, informative and persuasive answer to every question.

[@ggttuuxx]

Not really. He doesn't understand HK's currency board system at all.

[@frajahmed5488]

This channel is My Netflix, please keep it up.

[@blasater]

This interview will be one for the ages. In 2019, we say to you in the future, observe and choose Freedom.

[@PlanetFrosty]

China’s Debt is worse off than Hong Kong’s CHINA IS THE MOST LEVERAGED in real economic terms the actually GDP is lucky to be 2% for a variety of reasons-I’m getting actual input from Chinese Tax Authority senior official at great risk! He is looking at getting out-speaks volumes!

[@donettatrump2025]

Ask yourself why Google is feeding you this, NOW? If the news is fake, Invision how this history lesson was fostered?fkn propaganda THIS CHANNEL SO FKN SKETCH.

[@protoplast.youtube]

donetta trump ?!?.... do you wear a tinfoil hat, mrs donetta, 😆👎🏻

[@romlyn99]

When the bubble burst for Japan - what happened? It will be 10 times worse when the Hong Kong / China bubble bursts.

[@清咖煮雨]

Stephen Cotton Can not wait to see the drama rolls out.

[@kikin310]

make your own time machine bro, so you will never get caught by surprises. trollolol am i trolling or not? who knows!!

[@briansuniqueguitars]

I just dug this back up for another view after watching it over a year ago. So relevant today…

[@JM-gu3tx]

China is getting very close to destroying the autonomy of Hong Kong. If they continue, Hong Kong will be finished. Sad.

[@superchuck3259]

Trump will Tweet that Hong Kong will now be treated as Chinese territory and subject to all the trade rules placed on Chinese trade. BOOM! Before this goes down I would love Trump to ask for all the man made or man enhanced military islands in China Sea to be demilitarized.

[@ecofriendly0]

Charles Granata and for the USA to be subject to the same game and remove themselves from the islands they have claimed for themselves for military bases and countries they have attacked and stationed their troops there. Doesn’t make any difference for the tarriffs on Hk. Mind you, they are made in China

[@bongmerced5842]

Next is taiwan , what a irony , a battle of idiology between democracy and communism

[@candyrox3537]

Hong Kong people, come to the United States and bring your money and innovation. ❤️

[@ranevc]

And tanks are coming

[@suslinmew4358]

Hongkong is absolutely controled by the ccp, and became the happy pool of money laundry for the top officials of ccp like Jiang ze Min and Wang Qishan.

[@ecofriendly0]

suslin Mew and you reckon it’s just for the chinese? There’s laundering in Hk from us controlled entities... gotta love a free market ;)

[@jacquerowe5948]

When China first took control of Hong Kong it unabashedly stated that it could and would take the money from individuals including expats and including financial institutions incl banks

[@psyvatordarkpsy5284]

We want a new interview with Kyle Bass.

[@scottiedog4236]

Psyvator Darkpsy Be interesting time hear his views now with the virus here ? Nice quote

[@Luckyraindrops]

He has one with Epoch Times. Saw it yesterday.

[@juanok2775]

Kyle Bass sounds like a fashion line

Not surprised he stooged to the level of anti-China tabloid Epoch Times

[@Luckyraindrops]

R WG, you shouldn't be. It's his expertise

[@user-gz7fh8vo6e]

Awesome. Very lucid breakdown of the situation.

[@frankw2900]

Gary Tse I need a primer . I don’t know about these things and cannot really follow. Certainly, it’s very interesting and important.

[@aperfumedscorpion]

and completely wrong...

[@alexh.4842]

I feel like I’m going to search all of Kyle Bass’s interviews and watch each one of them, maybe even more than once

Kyle Bass's stocks have been growing at 1.5% per year according to Google. To put that into perspective, I make 10-30% quite easily. Would you like my advice?

[@keytolifestyle7967]

He is amazing

[@keytolifestyle7967]

@ I would...depending

[@motgbg]

@ Me too, but it is much easier with personal portfolio and lower amounts. I am on track of 100% this year. But what happened with HK curency 9 months later ant there isnt any significant drop?

[@trumpsahead]

Not one mention of gold and silver as hedge against crash. Great interview.

[@kevinhoque6365]

If the federal reserve reduce interest rates by 25-75 basis points this year, as implied by bond yields, then how does this affect this trade? I am guessing that it would also reduce the pressure on the HKD and hence postpone the reckoning that is discussed in the interview?

[@schopen-hauer]

for hong kong and everyone else, its all about the credit and leverage now, american junk market seems much worse.

[@FRANTAJE1]

There is always an overshooting thus what is implied means absolutely nothing. Bond market is overly bearish but US macro is still decent. Like core inflationary pressures for instance, they will be positive at least for another year. Add rising oil core inflation and you have high geo risk enviroment, moderately high inflation at target with still running fundamentals at least in the yearly outlook. Thus FED lowering yields is overly bearish view taken by the "consensus" atmo. Literaly 7 months ago people were almost certain that FED will RISE yields, thus one can imagine the general view has shifted to the other side of the spectrum, but reality is somewhere in between. imho

[@marcfranz7298]

@@FRANTAJE1 exactly where do you See fundamentals that get better?

[@MisterTwister222]

@@FRANTAJE1 you can still delete your comment

[@FRANTAJE1]

@@MisterTwister222 Well joke is on me I see. haha

[@העבד]

Omg thank you for this full upload, very appreciated!

[@miltonfriedman3593]

אל תשחק אותה מדבר אנגלית

[@lifuranph.d.9440]

@@miltonfriedman3593 Why not ?

[@miltonfriedman3593]

@@lifuranph.d.9440 ככה

[@lifuranph.d.9440]

@@miltonfriedman3593 So what ?

[@miltonfriedman3593]

@@lifuranph.d.9440 מי?

[@RiversideInsight]

Second largest Hong Kong real estate company declared bankruptcy today. This video is happening today.

[@briandailey3301]

Kyle NEEDS to be in the administration

[@ecofriendly0]

Brian Dailey the more he spread his ideology, the more he benefits off it from a financial sense.

[@CosmicSeeker69]

Haha, he's too smart to be one of the illuminate puppets

[@buzzworddujour]

Is Kyle just REALLY mad that his shorting of the Yuan didn't pan out, and is now going all in for another try? I find this channel really interesting, but also a bit one-note sometimes.

[@chrismares1851]

This video is aging very well. Great call Kyle!

[@Sachz]

You’re telling me June 2020

[@kikin310]

it is aging really well today, this explains why HK is desperate to please Chinese authoritarian regime

[@Lerppunen]

Kyle’s hedge fund has been an absolute trainwreck for many many years.

[@ognjenvignjevic4148]

His bets against China always age like milk...

[@cattttttt3544]

@@ognjenvignjevic4148 haha

[@dieselboyyy]

Now: HKD -> USD peg Soon: HKD -> RMB -> USD managed exchange. All HKD deposits overnight will be converted to RMD and entire system in HK will be subject to capital controls. Thank daddy Xi!!

[@Ken-S]

That's why today we have an important protest in Hong Kong with more than a million of people. HongKongers don't trust CCP.

[@cobrabeebop]

No one should trust the CCP @@Ken-S

[@littlemoutha9998]

Us uk further demise of hk dollar

[@TxFw]

Watched the whole thing. And I still don't know what the trade opportunity is...

[@thaum1]

Ditto. But then again I am dumb

[@crisismanagement2442]

Short the HK Dollar... (there's one) Short the HK Property Market (there's two) Short the HK Banks (HSBC?) - (There's 3) Short the HK Property Developers (There's 4) Short any corporation that does 50% or more of its business there (There's 5) and that was just a couple of seconds thinking about it...

[@genli5603]

HSBC is full of South American drug money.

[@AZmisc]

Gotta say I hesitated to watch -- like what an HK story gonna teach me? But oh, boy am I glad I did. This video was really good -- I put it on my "must re-watch list". Thanks guys!

[@surfnstocks2998]

Huge protests in Hong Kong over extraditions to mainland happening today.

[@hedgehog_fox]

Time to bring in the tanks.

[@BlowmeRoger]

Yes there sure is by everyday hk people, everybody is worried about this there.

[@ranevc]

And tanks.

[@barrettl2473]

That chart at 13:48 is crazy, my god the credit leverage.. and they have no clue

[@supercal333]

@Masked Singer Has his idea been disproven yet?

[@doodoodunderh3ad722]

New subscriber here, came across your interview with Guo and am hooked! Can't wait to watch more amazing insightful content!

[@ecofriendly0]

THL LI its a simple commonsense that people worship Guo for syphoning money out of the public, and then condemning the very system he got his riches from. How ironic that the people that is supporting democracy are after all silently preaching that the world is ruled by the one country that Guo is hiding in, and that is the world we are in sadly...

[@anhvu4211]

Same with me!

[@jacquerowe5948]

I am not a financial person and I need to re watch this video however, I do think China is acting to shore up this problem. He said China needs money to maintain stability that they don't have but what they do have is a lot of very rich billionaires and it seems to me that they are using their money for government purposes like example of what just happened with Alibaba and it's owner

[@Earej]

In the end he goes "Well, there you have it!". Except we don't. He didn't say what the investment idea was. He didn't say how to trade it. He didn't say how to put the trade on or even what it is.

[@generalyan7084]

They actually did say a few successful ways to trade it, but most retail traders are too slow to catch it.

[@Earej]

They did change the title twice since I wrote this.

[@romlyn99]

I get the idea that some people think that USD in Hong Kong stops and circulates in Hong Kong. It doesn't... it sits in Hong Kong for about 2 days then moves into Mainland China. So to see the USD peg to HKD - is not correct. The Hong Kong USD peg is Mainland China buffering a CNY to USD peg. So it is more than just a Hong Kong currency / economic issue - it is a mainland China issue. So mainland China uses Hong Kong as a buffer and a funnel to get a hold of USD.

[@user-dd5kx5md5o]

This is like the big short part 2 before it happens

[@jacquerowe5948]

You might want to hold your breath

[@4Ntech]

Watching this on September 3rd, 2019. The Hong Kong streetsare full of protesters.

[@bigteddybear5962]

Disaster ensues.

[@ranevc]

And the tanks

[@albertneville8918]

Paid for by US Intelligence agencies

[@bobbarkeriii2597]

Black-hand-CIA-Illuminati at work.

[@emmaliu169]

there is got to be a reason why HK youngers stand out and fight with CCP. support and keep tracking Hong Kong & ShinJang (Education Camp).

[@teghem6723]

So the depletion of their dollar reserves will sound the bell that will awake everbody to the reality!

[@jimlovesgina]

Print!

[@schopen-hauer]

think china would not put dollars in there?

[@neosonic08]

HKer here. It happened. Autonomy of HK has been lost. What happen to the peg?

[@MrTubeityourself]

All the best from the US. Nothing yet. Has to be time soon.

[@dennismaddock]

Would like Kyle to review the Australian debt bubble too!

[@billiardgrandmastershifu554]

Frankly, Australia’s economy is like a ticking time bomb. Their government spends too much on welfare and humanitarian cause which is great if you’re a rich country but not having enough people, lack of manufacturing, heavy reliance on imports are basically a recipe for disaster. You can’t just rely on wagyu beef and mining to support the whole country. There is so much more that needs to be done. Solution: ease immigration laws and make it easy for the right people to call aistralia their new home. Non-muslims from malaysia, phillipines, and other south east asia will definitely be a great backbone for a growing country. 2. Ease taxation and provide incentives for SMEs 3. Stop allowing Muslims in for gods sake. Look at how they treat the non-muslims in malaysia, indonesia etc

[@nayanmalig]

@@billiardgrandmastershifu554 Australia had a trade deficit of 1.4 per cent of GDP, much less than the US and Japan

[@boboften9952]

Australia's Debt = China's Manipulation.

[@jasonc9196]

thankyou very much kyle -from a Hongkonger

[@danbashuk1235]

wow I diden't know and this, this is the first time I heard of the problem with Hong Kong, I have shorted Tesla but HSBC seems to be in worse shape by far!

[@thejimoquinn]

"I have shorted Tesla" Doh! Sorry mate.

[@AsDfler12]

I wouldnt have shorted Tesla. Never bet against an insane customer group and crazy fanbase

[@boboften9952]

@@AsDfler12 George Hotz

[@BluesImprov]

Can anyone recommend a book. . .or video. . .that would explain the basics of what they're discussing here? I need something that simplifies the overall concepts so I can begin to get a handle on this. I do want to delve into this much more deeply than just the basics, but I need a simple explanation of the economic concepts involved to get me started. Any suggestions would be most appreciated!

[@tlufo]

Hmmm I would say, have you played monopoly? well the game ends when a player is the only one that owns everything right? so that's what the ccp is kind of doing (cheating using the bank since many private companies in china are half+ part of the state), while any capitalist would want the game to keep going and not go for all the cards on the board. or at least that's how I would explain it LOL

[@manubhadoria24]

At the heart of it, its a debt crisis. There's a recent book called Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio on this topic. Very comprehensive!

[@sincitycapital]

Fabozzi

[@superchuck3259]

In short, China wants to Steal and is stealing the wealth from Hong Kong. Hong Kong used to be UK colony. It was a free trade port and economic engine. People got rich, China wanted to take the wealth. A 99 year lease was put in place. The lease came up, then after some turmoil, a new deal was cut giving a time frame till China could control fully Hong Kong. China is pushing the timeline up and arresting people inside Hong Kong and taking them back to China. Also China wants to take the wealth too. Just see that Jack Mia from Alibaba lost his fortune to 5 unnamed new share holders of his shares. In the end, the wealth creators are leaving and Hong Kong is having civil unrest and will collapse. China will take possession and it will degrade into chaos at first and then authoritarian control by China the end!

[@robertofilipe8605]

@@superchuck3259 great comment! On point!

[@Elclassicodelaelbe]

I wonder how much credit went into Mainland China or went through Mainland China to the Projects like Silk Road 2.0 and other Infrastructure Projects outside of China? Anyone curious?

[@ianzacher1942]

Yes

[@maheshsunderaraman7043]

Fantastic insights by Kyle Bass. Kudos to Raoul Paul and Real Vision as well for bringing the best content.

[@David81515]

At what point will people admit he’s plain wrong

[@KaYeeTong]

See no reason it cannot defend the peg at expense of economic deterioration. When hibor can go up to 300%, you won’t attack the peg, but other assets, which HKMA wont care

[@parklilys3108]

In Western eyes, China is always running crises. Each of the crises is fatal to its survival. Follow this logic, China is collapsing every year or every other year. But China still stands and seems better and stronger. False wishes can not become reality.

[@Xyz99899]

This is very informative. Great interview.

[@d.k.barker3960]

First, everyone needs to read Peter Zeihan's new book, "DisUnited Nations". Many interviews on YT. This gives the long term historical, geographic and military background for all over the world. Gives insight into what Bass is talking about. Second, as to China, their agriculture is so poor and worn out it is impossible for them to feed their population without massive imports. How do they buy imports without exporting? And this necessity is what brought about the debt crisis.

[@mnharjotsingh]

I see the asymmetry, but what is the opportunity here?? all I heard was "leave Hong Kong"

[@danesovic7585]

Bet against HK dollar and against banks operating there.

[@mnharjotsingh]

@@danesovic7585 Thanks for your response, I appreciate it because I really don't know much about currencies and their trade. Is there more to the opportunity here than just a chance for people who have invested in HK to get out? How does one bet against something from the outside if they don't already have a ton of HKDs.

[@laszlosarosdi5417]

In a forex trade, go Long USD and Short HKD, since the HKD is pegged to the dollar your downside is minimal and your upside is massive. That is the asymmetry that you can capitalize on. Also you can short bank stocks whose main profile is mortgage lending, also you can just short the Hong Kong stock market as a whole. I think the real deal is the forex trade.

[@brianpang4431]

@29:52 - "It's always one thing. Its always the wealthy lose faith or fear the government and they start moving their assets out." I dislike the use of the phrase 'the wealthy.' It's always when *individuals* lose faith and fear their government that they start to move their assets out. The phrase "the wealthy" plays into the hands of those who'd like to make this a class war between the wealthy and those who are not. History is filled with millions of refugees who may not fit the description of wealthy, but they too were wise enough to see the signs and flee for the same reasons. The future of productive individuals is an asset in itself. In a philosophical war, words are weapons. I have little doubt that at some point the wealthy will be blamed for something, perhaps capital flight or, its always something. What's happening here isn't a war between the wealthy and the poor. This is a war between the State and the Individual and it is happening everywhere. When comparing the use of state power between China and the United States, they differ only in degree and not principle -- and that should be a resounding concern for those who value liberty. There is a lot more at stake here than just financial. Anywho, my two cents. Thank you for the great video -- as always.

[@philipstallwood9813]

I feel the difference between China and USA is that the president of USA has massive local and global support, and the Chinese administration has no global support and questionable local support. Around the world fake news, which is probably largely funded by hostile interests, is failing and people are now aware of the threats that exist to democracy. These democratic countries are allied and make a formidable power.

[@bitmau5]

Fascinating insight into the HK/China monetary system for me. Thank you!

[@BrianFrenchinternet-marketing]

Shorting HK fixed income vs long US bonds is the big trade.

[@Zlinky111]

Fantastic video and brilliant analysis. Amazing!!! Thank you. : )))

[@drogoth25]

This is my new favorite channel!

[@270kenritt]

I hope Kyle has a large security team - his opinions will anger some very powerful people.

[@irfayasseyf1603]

25:09 the piece to pay attention to

[@manubhadoria24]

What instrument has Kyle actually shorted? Is it just a massive short position on HKD?

[@walk-with-Walz]

That was not revealed, only speculated on, but it seems pretty obvious?

[@chasdenver]

Kyle, I enjoy these interviews, but more your financial expertise! I Really enjoyed your interview with Miles, the Chinese businessman. I still have Major questions, about his allegiance and motives...Keep up the Great interviews, Very enlightening!

[@deeguedes6681]

Silver is the big trade

[@Vangolovesart]

I am up 40 % on silver in about 5 months

[@walk-with-Walz]

Bitcoin

[@theministryofmoney4237]

@@Vangolovesart What currency?

[@StephenNu9]

Very interesting discussion. As Kyle said earlier, HK's ports once operated 30% of China's shipping business -- today, it's down to 2%. HK's GDP today is $341.4 billion while China's is $12.2 trillion -- which is only about 2.8% of China's value. Thus, if HK goes south, mostly those in HK will be effected.

[@A_friend_of_Aristotle]

This, the end of Hong Kong as the beacon of free enterprise in the east, will be a tragedy of epic proportions if Kyle is right. It's with sincere hospitality that I extend an invitation to all those of wealth and liberal spirit in Hong Kong. We in the USA would be better for your company and hope you choose to flee to our country.

[@TrueSkillRoulette]

your country is free as a bird's cage!

[@jimlovesgina]

Don't come to the US. We are headed over a cliff.

[@6530517]

But we don't want a mass importation of Chinese into my country. You have to do what other people do fight for your country. Like Europeans and white people did. A lot of people died fighting for freedom. Don't run to another people's country like cowards.

[@protoplast.youtube]

@TrueSkillRoulette 👎🏻hello,... you seem to be completely braindead OR you are just a paid propagsndist from CCP,... i can SMELL it...

[@terrybaikie2181]

@@6530517 Just the way the whites fought for their counties in Rhodesia and South Africa, fought against communism, not against blacks, only to be beaten by the so called free world of US,UK EU, then left to rot. So yes, hard working free HK people should leave to wherever they can.

[@pandawang6408]

2019.9.1China Mainland netizens hot topics: the CCP- Hebei province ,Provincial Councillors "Liqiu Zhu " United Hebei province District Court, using mafia means , Threats,intimidation,many students and families pay Huge service charges for her private company which Illegal operation in the National Public Schools. Despicable means ,turn off water and power suply, False invoice fraud，Administrative intervention and bribery, make the Law and courts service for her personal company and united national pubilc shool , Forced students to live in their Shabby and polluting"room" WITH Presidential Suite Spending. nakedly declaring the CCP Provincial governments like Taiwan and the rights holders “”Illegal organizations and anti-people” Essence，The investigation team joined the incident，Cover-up and circumvention once again, Public anger boils over 天价学生宿舍幕后老板"朱立秋-ZHU LI QIU":现任河北政协常委 网易新闻 天价宿舍调查:幕后老板“”朱立秋-ZHU LI QIU “”曾为全国人大代表 新浪新闻

[@TsiHang]

Lee has been selling his assets in China then Hong Kong years ago

[@msai_podcast]

hkd hasn't lost value in past year. so was Bass wrong or just mistimed?

[@PseudoProphet]

Hong Kong is gone beyond repair.

[@lance8080]

Why are investors even doing business with this crooked Communist regime ???

[@SM-sb4tr]

17:43 me saying Yep when i don't understand a thing

[@singularity-6339]

Daily lending rate is for banks to banks but prime is for bank to public.

[@SM-sb4tr]

Singularity - thanks

[@owenbenjaminshapiro6285]

@Me that might be true right about until you're faced with a medical emergency (in the US)

[@EudonHeath]

What are your thoughts on the proposal for Hong Kong to purchase the London Stock Exchange? This is going to tie UK's money with Hong Kong. My opinion is that this is a long term bad deal for the global economy.

[@gustavodiaz4689]

Very educational! Thank you

[@heteshjoosery8542]

I am researching how to structure this trade this is awsome content, thank you !

[@marsmotion]

this could really become a flashpoint. i feel for the people there. the Chinese will enact such revenge on them that it will be a humanitarian crisis if they fully take it. imagine the people who cant leave.

[@BanBiofuels]

So short the HK stock market? How as the revolution going on affected this situation?

[@PlanetFrosty]

The real estate market in China and quality of construction in Chinese Construction is so bad in many cases it’s worthless and must be rebuilt-massive apartment blocks. The RMB is so over leveraged with even larger dark debt, including P2P is enormous-my internal information is from CCP tax office officials looking at ways to get out.

[@kevinj5989]

Another SUPERB interview! Thank you!

[@elizabethmortensen8464]

Sort of like a type of symbiotic relationship as long as HK remains autonomous?

[@gerhardkutt1748]

You have NO IDEA of the money that flows through HK and BVI's which are totally related. For every single HK company there is a counterpart BVI company as well - because HK is a money pump. It comes in and goes out ... no one knows how much money - because HK is the most deregulated banking system in the world !!! Hong Kong is NOT just about Chinese money - it is about Global money !!

[@boboften9952]

Well Said Sir . Yes ABSOLUTELY Yes .

[@gradedwash]

There is no attack! There is only a sad lack of understanding as to the true construct of money. The banks do not need any reserve at all in order to create money as they do every day in every country. It is governments globally that insist on a reserve that is not in any way needed in a book- keeping exercise where banks create the money for the customer in the books, and then force that customer to surrender said amount created to the banks ownership via the signature which is recognized in law. The entire system has to deal more responsibly with debt that is always money itself. Governments should take back the banks or kick them out just as Iceland did.

[@MORDHI1]

Damn that’s great interview

[@sumitar2]

Kyle bass never understood that markets can stay irrational longer than he can stay solvent.

[@hotsiam3193]

well, he's still here managing large sums of money, so you're probably talking shit.

[@sumitar2]

@@hotsiam3193 you're a f'ing noob go learn something before you vomit here

[@drmodestoesq]

And he also doesn`t seem to understand that federal governments have printing presses. His argument is, who`s gonna buy all this government paper. The answer is....the government.

[@dutchymcdutch2553]

@@drmodestoesq Venezuala is printing like crazy, how is that going...

[@drmodestoesq]

@@dutchymcdutch2553 I know...And Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe and Hungary. All the rare hyperinflation events. Then we look at the vast number of deflationary events. When people look at a country that lost WW1 and think it`s analogous to 2008 or 2019 America... Or a African country that`s run by a thug who`trying to cling to power. But if people like me say Bitcoin is the modern Tulipomania....well then. People say the analogy is false. Fact of the matter is Bass made one brilliant well timed call. All credit...and giant sack of cash to the winner. But how has he done against the indexes since then. I gamble on sports a lot. Everyone can have a good streak. Or a bad streak. But the grinder who makes consistent profits is the one with the good methodology.

[@GranFinale]

Kyle will tell us ALL day what the problems are, but the soluitons are strictly reserved for him and his investors.

[@michioaluna5799]

so if you can leave Hong Kong leave it now?

[@b.griffin317]

no duh.

[@hamishdavidson3368]

One thing he has forgotten to mention Chinese including Hong Kong have high saving rates. Where as in the west there’s hardly any savings. So when borrowing money they more leverage.The problem with moving to RMB base is the fact that the controls on money movement. Now even more restrictive, Aunties crossing the border with fat shopping bags full of 100 RMB notes is over. Some rear estate agents had cash counting machines in their sales offices.They will never unpeg from the US that is concrete.

[@4R1P5R]

Dying to hear an update now that HK has lost it’s special trade status w US. Assuming this is economic checkmate for HK.

[@skypowell7445]

Yes, U.S knew it couldn't do anything about the chinese communist's. Nice! LOL. this is a checkmate for democracy U.S is letting hong kong's ship sink......

[@dontfeedthemodels]

im working and listening to this & every few minutes I look back at the video with my hands on my face like... "THIS IS MIND BLOOOOWING"

[@tensevo]

You know there is a reason we say, never say never.

[@whiskeytangofoxtrot2568]

Does he mean *leveraged* when he says “levered”?

[@cramer071]

he wouldn't tell you if it was true

[@barrettl2473]

What are you talking about? He literally told everyone to sell their homes in 2007. This is the most liquid macro trade in since the dollar was taken off of the gold standard... Hes obviously already positioned himself but thats his fiduciary obligation to his investors. Watch and learn fam.

[@barrettl2473]

@@chickeninasal4381 You know nothing about me other than a comment or two on a youtube video, you're delirious. I was just condensing information, He was bearish housing... made billions. Tons of regular people had 3 or 4 houses in highly leveraged real estate areas... but you're going to have to find someone else to cry about being poor to.. Maybe you should start your own hedge fund if you know better than Kyle Bass bro. My point stands that Blind skepticism only hurts the skeptic.. if you are intelligent enough to be skeptic you should be intelligent enough to read data for yourself also.. this trade is much bigger than kyle bass its not like hes fading/lying to the market here.. Just chill on the Dunning-Kruger stuff man. Learn some things.

[@FRANTAJE1]

:DD Like bunch of youtube people will move literaly the biggest market there is.

[@ericjoho]

@@chickeninasal4381 i sold at the top of the market after owning for about 7 yrs. did fsbo at 1.8% fee, i made 12.5 times my down payment. vacationed, traveled and day traded for 2 yrs. after which the housing market was still going down. i then got a job, housing and coasted in to finally retirement. Barrett L is right about listening and learning beyond your own inherent belief system.

[@reefminder]

"The HKMA’s assets, mostly foreign-exchange reserves, totaled $438 billion in May 2019 and have barely declined from their peak of $442 billion in January 2018. Under the Exchange Fund Ordinance, the regulation that provides the currency board’s mandate, all HKMA assets, including accumulated fiscal reserves and surpluses, are available to support the exchange rate." -From the June 24th WSJ column Mr. Bass cites. The Aggregate Balance has dropped from roughly HK$400B to HK$54B, as Mr. Bass says, but unless the quoted statement is entirely wrong, the HKMA has a lot of reserves to back the peg. Granted, the liquidity profile is difficult to assess. But when Mr. Bass mentions "unless they get the money from somewhere else in the economy", he's glossing over the reserve position of the HKMA, knowingly or unknowingly. The points about structural changes in the U.S. and Chinese economy since the peg causing significant imbalances are spot-on. But the HKMA appears stable at the for the time being, and a long way from a Southeast Asia currency crisis, leverage notwithstanding (also addressed in the WSJ column).

[@gullibletravels5250]

I would like to see you guys particularly, Kyle give us his thoughts on Australia -- is it another Hong Kong ?

[@richardminhle]

gullible travels it is the same story. Capital flight is waiting at the runway for takeoff clearance.

[@Paradoxian2]

Kyle Bass needs to elaborate on this. It would be so interesting.

[@mikegoh2569]

Thanks for a great video and exposition of what is happening.

[@JK-Jasmine]

Thank you for the explanation❣

[@allenbrown3652]

What if the fed cuts rates and devalues the dollar, does that just ruin the timing of this trade?

[@AGoogleUser-hf5zg]

thats why they're getting into Bitcoin...

[@Kawasakifreak1]

China's banned it.

[@AGoogleUser-hf5zg]

@@Kawasakifreak1 no..... It's legal to own but not legal as for payment.

[@jfausset]

The country doesn’t jump in to bail out depositors in these credit frenzy induced financial crises. The country bails out the banks themselves. Give depositors their money and write off all the credit. That would wipe out the banks and allow a consumer reset. Would it destroy credit systems? Yes. Is that a bad thing?

[@Kawasakifreak1]

Banks go bust ? Consumer debt forgiveness ? The entire fractional reserve systems collapses - no cash from ATMs - no card/phone payments as liquidity dries up - good luck with that scenario unless you have the skills & resources to survive off the grid.

[@tylerdurden1656]

many places in china already went cashless

[@goodbookisgood]

Kyle Bass Ranked #179 out of 201 Hedge Funds on TipRanks Portfolio Gain -23.2% Since June 2013

[@richardminhle]

chimichanga And?

[@kirstinstrand6292]

It pays to figure out this mess one's self...the odds are no worse than the worst analysts! And perhaps better!

[@kirstinstrand6292]

Tip Ranks is almost meaningless.

[@goodbookisgood]

@@kirstinstrand6292 -23.5% is almost meaningless when it is other people's money.

[@mrfardy91]

standardising portfolio performance is meaningless

[@Sebaiancu]

Gotta love Kyle Bass... Has a ratio of facts to opinion of 1000 to 1. I just love facts because they can't manipulate the way you think and I can get to my own conclusions

[@didierdenice7456]

Well remember his famous 2015 "Japan is a mosquito looking for a windshield"... His shorting of Japan has been a disaster for four years ! He spitted all the rational arguments yet nothing happened. It helps in life to have a bit of memory... :-)

[@drmodestoesq]

@@didierdenice7456 Thats the facts...Jack.

[@elizabethmortensen8464]

I keep thinking of Brexit and just how imperative that they get out with no deal, and I don’t know why

[@AlexGudim20]

How do you short a Country? Short the Currency?

[@boboften9952]

He Whom Controls The Monetary System ..... To Paraphrase .

[@emersonguhiling3429]

The world must intervene in Hong Kong.

[@Vangolovesart]

will not happen

[@ecofriendly0]

Emerson Guhiling the US government has already intervened, so nothing new here.

[@sbobkim]

Not playing out as Kyle predicted for now...actually hkd at its strongest, and HKMA fighting to defend 7.5. Also the total reserve HKMA holds atm is around, $400 billion so pretty strong. However who knows how all the us dollar printing and china's response may affect this vulnerable state, and eventually redeem Kyle's bet...

[@rmclarkjr]

and now no one in hong kong is working but rather protesting = lower GDP

[@wt3447]

Iran just announced to use chinese yuan in stead of US dollar for their oil and team up with other five countries to de dollar and promote yuans. So what you think about it Mr Kyle Bass?

[@ecofriendly0]

Kyle Bass: Troubling Times For His Strategy The head of Hayman Capital has significantly underperformed over the past decade Who would have expected a superstar of the financial crisis, with a return of 212% in 2007, to have trouble making mid-single-digits since then? Kyle Bass (Trades, Portfolio), a Texan hedge fund manager, has made some interesting bets over the past decade, but none have revived the old magic. What is it about his global shorting strategy that has gone wrong? Who is Bass? Born in Miami, Florida, Texas-basedD Magazine says Bass moved to Dallas as a child. His investment career began at Bear Stearns, in the field of event-driven special situations and short selling. He was promoted to senior managing director at age 28 before moving to Legg Mason. At the latter firm, for which he managed the Dallas office, he closely watched the housing industry. While in these two jobs, he saved enough to start Hayman Capital Management in 2006. After months of research by Bass and his team, they were ready to take on the then-burgeoning subprime mortgages industry. He short sold some $4 billion worth of subprime securities to the synthetic Credit Default Swap market. Bass' research and intuition proved correct, and an initial $110 million investment became a $700 million jackpot. That, in turn, led to a highly publicized appearance before an investigative committee in Washington D.C., where he provided a much-quoted analysis of the meltdown. What is Hayman Capital? Hayman Capital Management L.P., is a Dallas-based investment management firm that provides services to private pooled vehicles and separate accounts. It is solely owned by Bass. According to the Form ADV Part 2A, its investors are typically institutions, funds-of-funds, family offices and high-net-worth individuals. This firm is an umbrella organization for numerous other Bass-owned entities, including a Cayman Islands exempted company. These entities manage private funds, including the Hayman Funds, the China funds and the Hong Kong funds. In a Form ADV filing on June 5, 2017, the firm reported $815 million of discretionary assets under management. On Jan. 16, 2017, $63 million, or less than 10%, was in equities. Strategy Hayman invests in three types of opportunities: Macroeconomic trends. Special situations. Event-driven situations. It does not invest in real estate, perhaps appropriate for a fund manager who made his name by shorting the housing industry. They report the investment process starts with idea generation. Team members monitor a defined universe of sovereign actions, corporate events, global market conditions and internal and external sources. Then, the successful idea is evaluated on intrinsic value and on its risk and reward profile. Once past this hurdle, remaining ideas are subject to fundamental analysis of the economics involved, pricing discrepancies and identified catalysts. At this stage, they also assess country risks such as government, gross domestic product, capital account, political stability and currency. As noted, Bass became a star investor by recognizing and profiting from the subprime mortgage crisis. Since 2008, he has also made several other, seemingly brash, bets: Drug prices: This shorting campaign began in 2015, as Bass saw an opportunity to challenge drug patents, drive down the cost to consumers and make a profit for his firm. He had mixed success, and apparently little financial success. Business Insider reported in February 2016 that Bass had given back most of the $700 million he had raised from investors. It also reports Bass intends to keep fighting the patents. China: Bass was convinced the Chinese financial system is rotten, and so shorted the yuan. However, the Chinese system keeps rolling along and, under the current leadership, cross-subsidizations of all kinds are expected to continue. Linette Lopez of Business Insider points out that while the banks may be fragile, they are not conventional business enterprises and can be propped up as long the leadership deems it to be in the country’s interest. She says, “Sometimes, no matter how right you are, you're still wrong and you're still going to lose money.” Greece: The New York Post reports Bass supposedly made billions in 2012 by shorting Greece, but his fund gained only 16% that year. U.S. national debt, Greek debt, Japanese debt, Argentinian debt: No doubt much of the world is running up debt and will likely face a messy reckoning. But when? Bass thinks the reckoning should have come by now or will come soon. But most countries have found ways to stave off that reckoning, for the time being at least. In the meantime, he has struggled to get to mid-single-digit returns. Lightning has not struck twice for Bass. The strategy that gave him so much in the mid-2000s has failed him since then. Has he misgauged or do the counterparties on the other side of his shorts possess some knowledge that he does not? Holdings This chart shows the sectoral allocation of the three equities held in Bass’ portfolio: Kyle Bass sectors And this GuruFocus list shows the three equities: Kyle Bass equities Note the heavy holding in put options. These derivatives will rise in price if the price of Shire (NASDAQ:SHPG) shares fall. Note as well that Shire is a biotech stock and one of the targets of Bass’ shorts on drug companies. Performance A couple of GuruFocus headlines tell the essential story of his performance: Kyle Bass - Stung By Losses, Hoping for a Comeback (Aug. 14, 2015) Troubled Kyle Bass Reduces Stake in NMI Holdings: Struggling hedge fund has experienced biggest losing streak in its history (Oct. 14, 2016) In 2007, Bass had scored a return of 212%, according to a 2015 Institutional Investor article, which goes on to note that he had not had a big win since then. It also reports the Hayman Capital Master Fund had posted an average annual return over those eight years of just 1.56%. This TipRanks chart shows how bad things have been for the whole firm over the past five years: Kyle Bass performance 5 years As we have seen with so many other gurus, adapting to a long bull market is tougher than it appears. Bass’ business model worked so well for one big crisis, then produced rocky returns for succeeding years. Conclusion John Maynard Keynes famously said, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” He said that after personally misjudging the currency markets and enduring a major loss. Over the past 10 years, Bass has done his homework and invested in situations ripe for shorting. However, the “markets” maintained their irrationality longer than he expected and, as a result, he lost many bets. Value investors might learn from his experience. Investing in the belief the market must correct itself is a risky gambit. I am one of many who has predicted an end to the bull market for a couple of years now. Fortunately, I have not acted on the hunch so far. Further, investors should be prepared to tweak their strategy over time, assuming the strategy has a solid base; if not, a new strategy should be considered. Mr. Market always has his own ideas and will continue to surprise us as long as we invest. Have a nice day reading this betting guy Kyle Bass, who’s causing his clients lost opportunities... especially when the market is in turmoil right now when there’s so much money to be made. Kyle’s seems out of his depth predicting the current market...

[@FGuilt]

Short plays are hard to come by since 2009...

[@bradleyg1970]

Dan EcoFriendly thank you Dan! It’s incredible how irrational markets can be and for how long. It’s sometimes even more incredible why this happens. I always say, keep doing what you do best and diversify your savings.

[@chicanohek]

Dan EcoFriendly geez bro, get off his nuts already

[@klediobaci2957]

Great breakdown, much appreciated!

[@andreaslarsson3999]

Great video!Kyle Bass is awesome!!!