China's Economic Crisis

[@Pensioncraft]

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[@havencat9337]

please show how much share of Construction from GDP went down in recent years. Your graph shows only to 2015-16.... since then things changed a ton and there plenty of data online. Don be spreading lies please, we have plenty of that in press

[@christerdehlin8866]

I love how you avoid overly dramatic clickbait headlines, and how you present a full and balanced picture of this and other situations. Thanks, and keep up the good work!

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you liked it @christerdehlin8866

[@dicksonchan5302]

meh, it's still clickbait, crisis? really? a slowdown, a recession, ya, but crisis? At least it wasn't "COLLASPING" like in all the other video's trying to get that 1.6 bil

[@timwood101]

Thank you Ramin. Another great explainer.

[@StephenfromChch]

Thank you for your broadcast - very informative.

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you enjoyed it @StephenfromChch

[@wucwug]

Thank you for your informative and balanced view on china economy and outlook.

[@Pensioncraft]

My pleasure @wucwug

[@SharathBV-i5q]

Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.

[@Tom_murray89]

Love the content you provide hope you’re well

[@juehju]

"China is in an economic crisis" 2008 "China is in an economic crisis" 2024 "China is in an economic crisis" 2036 Sooo... when is China collapsing?

[@simplelogic9090]

When you have state controlled everything it can help prevent a collapse. But unless changes are made (which china has not done) the collapse might be slow but it will come.

[@___JJ]

please do a video on the implications of the coming capital gains tax hike for investors, small business owners etc

[@GhostPrefix]

Very interesting content !

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you enjoyed it @GhostPrefix

[@J_X999]

The core issue is the property market in my opinion. The Chinese government has completed refused to bail out the property market, therefore indicating that it wants to control the growth of an already unsustainable housing bubble.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @J_X999 I agree, although the government is showing that it is supporting people who have pre-paid for houses above the companies making those houses which is arguably the right thing to do. But it clearly doesn't want the property bubble to continue growing. Thanks, Ramin.

[@GoldTau-l2d]

Debt to GDP is insane

[@J_X999]

@@GoldTau-l2d For the US, yeah.

[@GoldTau-l2d]

@@J_X999 invest your money in USA. Much better performance. China is not investable.

[@ivivivir]

Great video. I believe it can be a great opportunity to start DCA purchases of Chinese stocks/etfs...

[@KhunAdam]

Thank you for explaining the balance sheet recession. I understand it takes a long time to correct, but would you classify this period as a depression? As an Australian superannuation pensioner, it worries me a great deal.

[@montyloads]

Great video Ramin... could I make a suggestion please... sometimes when you are showing a graph it goes into a split screen with yourself and the subject graph. Occasionally it can become hard to see all the information on the graph (especially when viewing the video via a mobile phone) It would probably be a better viewer experience if the screen was to go full screen of the subject graph and you just speak over the top of it for that brief period. Once again great video and podcast this week and thanks for everything you do.

[@mcurtis600]

If you watch video on a tablet or computer screen it’s fine.

[@bradsutherland_writer]

I love your videos, Ramin. Can I suggest you do a video on Equal Weight S&P 500 index funds.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @bradsutherland_writer that's an interesting idea - I'll think about it! Thanks, Ramin.

[@MagicNash89]

Spain got hit REALLY bad in the GFC. Japan got hit bad during their asser price bubble deflation period.

[@thetjt]

There's no asset price bubble on Chinese stock market, on the contrary.

[@MauriceDeClerk]

@@thetjt Well, who would invest in the chinese stock market? You literally will not be able to get your money out.

[@thetjt]

@@MauriceDeClerk Total nonsense...

[@themacosgamerboicousin5433]

No way finally a balanced vid!

[@fredatlas4396]

Stick with a low cost global index fund or etf, like ftse all world, msci acwi or ftse global all cap and you'll automatically get emerging markets exposure. I put a smallish amount some yrs ago into an active emerging markets fund from Aberdeen asset management, and I got badly stung. So I'm very weary about emerging markets. People have been saying for yrs that emerging markets are the place to be to get good growth, look how that's turned out

[@NickNov]

I think this is a healthy correction. Property markets need to cool down

[@davidr7819]

If there’s such a thing as finance asmr, this is it ! ❤

[@MarkCW]

The combined Combined Total Debt-to-GDP isn't much different between US, China and UK Country Government Debt-to-GDP Corporate Debt-to-GDP Household Debt-to-GDP Combined Total Debt-to-GDP United States 120-125% 75-80% 75-80% 270-285% China 75-80% 160-170% 60-65% 280-290% United Kingdom 100-105% 80-85% 85-90% 265-275%

[@MD97531]

Yes and China is a lot, lot poorer per capita with a falling population, so in a dreadful situation at those debt levels

[@thetjt]

@@MD97531 Less money per capita & much cheaper stock market valuations mean there's way more upside than on overpriced US market. Falling population argument is a joke... china isn't going to run out of labour force any time soon... especially considering how advanced their robotics is & AI. China is a massive net exporter. US is net importer. Not gonna mention UK's economy.

[@thetjt]

Good post. So I'm not the only one noticing the double standard here.... it's not like Ramin is going to call US market "uninvestable" - despite nearly 3 times price/earning compared to China... I googled US total debt, public & private... it was 93.5 trillion in 2022... so now roughly FOUR times GDP.

[@GoldTau-l2d]

China 300%

[@MD97531]

@@thetjt the basic premise is total debt levels in China and US are similar but China is mid income, US is high income. The debt burdens are much worse at china’s level of development. You can argue a falling population isn’t bad but I disagree and so do most experts.

[@keirenle]

I have some Chinese stocks, and they are cheap as chips. My main concern is the geopolitical tension with America. China is in the space where America has been claimed for years, so I am sure they would do all they could to hobble it.

[@peanut0brain]

Chinese stocks listed on Wall St will never go up do to racism and prejudice. Sell

[@selwynparker5793]

Awesome presentation thanks. My hunce is to hold off any investment in chinese stocks until a new (upward) trend develops. Or the downward economic trend stabalises. The market is forward looking, so You might miss very early price gains, but that is better than experiencing further stock price devaluation. Put another way, be patient & diciplined & stick with your long term strategy. I also hav a very long term love of active stock picker funds from proven long term performers. Let them worry about market timing. Great video, i enjoy your professional content!!❤ Kiwi

[@lkolonis]

I don't have the exact figures, but it seems to me that total US debt is larger. Government is about 120%, non financial about 160% and financial about 100%. With Chinese GDP growing faster than the US, why is this a problem for China?

[@madleon81]

Every country is suffering from either too much or less property … and we have millions of advisors who can’t pick this and correct 😂

[@kingcastro-s1p]

Concerns of a potential debt default in China triggered a market sell-off, impacting both digital and traditional stock markets.

[@sheldongardner3150]

Uncertainty surrounding Evergrande's situation fuels global financial fear as the Chinese haven't clarified their stance.

[@zaree7040]

Japanese companies with operations in China, like Hitachi Construction Machinery, saw market value declines.

[@jimbojimbo6873]

China will be fine, their population isn’t as thick as ours

[@TheRustyLM]

😂😂

[@peanut0brain]

Yeah well western fast food junk is causing more and more obesity and diabetes. KFC, McDonald's, burger King, pizza hut

[@denislim123]

I travel to China regularly on business and Western doom and gloom narratives of a declining Chinese economy is more hype than reality. The Chinese economy is undergoing a structural readjustment post-Covid and poised to expand in spite of US led sanctions and attempts in decoupling. Non-USD denominated trade has boomed and Western financial analysis are blind to the volume of trade arising from de-dollarisation because the lack substantial data. Arms length armchair analysis of China's so-called economic demise have consistently been proven otherwise.

[@davidreason3919]

GPT

[@glenn5328]

Think you are maybe incorrect with that analysis.

[@geetpeetnsnsnjj2192]

Ramin cab you please look into non dollar denominated GDP and how far away we are from the dollar crashing and no longer being used as the 'world currency'

[@havencat9337]

exactly... whoever visits China they can see how advanced thigns are there

[@glenn5328]

@@geetpeetnsnsnjj2192 maybe a light year or so away?

[@josepha9313]

Just not enough attraction for me here; have to comb thru companies, find those that actually trade in the US and then you're kind of scratching around for information and analyst coverage. Ping An Insurance and maybe China Shenhua Energy are among the few I'd consider, both have roughly an 8% yield. Beware small and micro caps, scams abound or at least they did.

[@alexramsay4114]

Indonesia is a small country? You might want to check pop size ramin

[@JW-se7br]

He means economy size…

[@thetjt]

Ramin apparently thinks that US stock market with public+private debt 4 times GDP & stock market nearly 3 times the valuation is a better investment....

[@johnristheanswer]

Buy commodity stocks with a long term view.

[@MrMatisse22]

Gosh...I think I'm selling. 40% losses across the board...ouch.

[@thetjt]

Based on Ramin's video? I haven't yet heard a fair opinion from him about China...maybe this video will be different, but I doubt it. Chinese businesses are doing well, you can see that from PE ratios etc... plus China stock market is rather cyclical... after bust comes the boom. It's mostly about sentiment, not profits.

[@djpuplex]

I wonder if robotics will help China.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @djpuplex I suspect it will: itif.org/publications/2024/03/11/how-innovative-is-china-in-the-robotics-industry/ Thanks, Ramin

[@davidgray3321]

Apart from that it looks pretty good? I mean world recession and crashing material prices, all ok then?

[@bobbyboyderecords]

Crisis really?

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @bobbyboyderecords I'd say 300% debt to GDP with weak growth and rapidly falling house prices is a crisis. Thanks, Ramin.

[@bobbyboyderecords]

@@Pensioncraft I here at the moment crisis does not seem like what I think a crisis seems to be. I'm still being paid 3 times + the wage I would get in the Uk and they are still building huge infrastructure and houses.

[@thetjt]

@@Pensioncraft Clear double standards here, Ramin. What's the US & UK debt to GDP using same metrics... How about US home prices... What about growth compared to China...

[@havencat9337]

please show how much share of Construction from GDP went down in recent years. Your graph shows only to 2015-16.... since then things changed a ton and there plenty of data online. Don be spreading lies please, we have plenty of that in press

[@thetjt]

Indeed.

[@blhlow4904]

China has been cheap for a while. Can someone enlighten me as to what's the catalyst to re-rate the market?

[@2024-s2n]

It’s all over red rover

[@informer-365]

Nio and xpeng stocks on a tear recently

[@davidcalvert-smith4633]

I wonder what a recession (or a big slowdown) will do to an already precarious fertility rate in China!?! At a time when youth unemployment is very high. I don’t know how many years of such low fertility China can take before they reach the point of no return (if they are not there already).

[@MagicNash89]

What is the point of no return in this context exactly? Is this like Japan where the population shrinking in the very long-term is a certainty and only the estimated figures differ?

[@fredatlas4396]

I think you are confusing China with Japan. I thought China had the other problem, too large a population. Surely that's why they tryed to restrict the number of children a family could have to just one

[@PERJENSTER]

Agree. 90% home ownership. relatively little private financing. Construction has of course slowed and will not pick up again for a while when it will assume level more similar to Europe.

[@davidcalvert-smith4633]

@@MagicNash89 - for me the point of no return is when it becomes almost impossible to grow the population. The 21-30 year olds are making up a smaller and smaller percentage of the population, these are the people that typically have kids. Where will the next generation of workers come from? And what will China do in about 40 years when almost 50% of the population will be over 60 (assuming the fertility rate doesn’t drop from here)?

[@Niseedyyube6486]

Been saying this over 25 years for every year. Who is going to say this next year?

[@Adrian-vf6kh]

Can someone explain why we're celebrating economic growth of 2.6% in the US, yet ridiculing China's economy for being "weak and failing to deliver" with 5% growth in 2024 (IMF figures)?

[@prime8krish]

low base effect and expectations.

[@bikija721]

% function is taught in the seventh grade of elementary school...Anyway, here is your wished explanation: Would you rather work for $100 000 salary and get 2.6% increase or work for $35 000 and get 5% salary increase??

[@Adrian-vf6kh]

@@bikija721poor explanation. Must try harder.

[@havencat9337]

seems like Ramni is very based, hes dont another video like this. He doesnt talk baout how the construction sector now its like 23% of the GDP. The country is changing and the west is missing the point

[@后宫后]

Cognitive bias

[@NeidlichesSchwert]

Every sentence you say sounds has the same robotic inflection.

[@joem0088]

5% growth, 800B$ trade surplus is a crisis ?

[@s.m.hassan3887]

Ramin make some video on pakistan economy.

[@cooper8t]

Making a video that reaches a broad range of people that is arguably "critical" of China and CCP's policies. Some genuine advice, I wouldn't visit China/ Hong-Kong, including even if it is a transfering at an airport.

[@fredatlas4396]

Have you ever visited those countries. Are you talking from real experience or just from listening to the media

[@garyrobert1971]

I was just there. Great airports, well organised and clean cities with excellent public transport. Friendly people. Awesome food.

[@prime8krish]

@@fredatlas4396 he is talking of safety of Ramin as he was being honest.

[@garyrobert1971]

@@prime8krish I don’t think the CCP is interested in Ramin’s videos. Being critical of the CCP is not a crime.

[@udarpavarota396]

Experts, experts everywhere.

[@GillDilpreet2005]

Hey, make sure to check your email! I just sent you one!