China’s Economy: Has THE Crisis Started?

China’s economy is showing multiple signs of weakness. Actual growth seems below the official figures; there is substantial deflation; the housing market has yet to stabilize; and the domestic stock markets have fallen significantly. Domestic confidence is flagging, and foreign investment in 2023 was at a three-decade low. Are we witnessing the early days of an emerging full-blown economic crisis, is this just a deeper than unusual cyclical downturn, or are the worries vastly overblown? How should international investors and other governments respond?
At this online event, CSIS Trustee Chair Scott Kennedy will seek answers to these questions to a stellar group of economic experts: Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative in China for the International Monetary Fund; Logan Wright, Partner at the Rhodium Group; Yanmei Xie, Geopolitics Analyst with Gavekal; Kiyoyuki Seguchi, Research Director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies; and Eunice Yoon, Beijing Bureau Chief at CNBC.
This event is made possible by general support to CSIS.
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[@greenlandconsulting]

IMF official is typical of the empty suit saying nothing by saying a lot

[@amunra5330]

Cope much? After the US falls China will still be here

[@titusp9488]

yes ... facts are horrible ... just empty suits can you be more specific on his emptiness? They are all wearing suits

[@Kirkrrr]

@@titusp9488 I kind of understand where he's coming from. When Steven Barnett first started discussing the Chinese economy through the lens of "5.2% GDP growth," it felt surreal to me. There's nothing about that figure that adds up, as Logan so articulately explained. Every aspect of the economy is in trouble - even the few relative bright spots such as EV's or solar panels are having to be sold at steep discounts due to overcapacity, crushing producers' margins. Eunice Yoon did an amazing job of describing what things feel like on the streets. Yet official figures are painting what is essentially a minor slowdown. So when Steven Barnett comes on and starts talking like it's mostly business as usual, just a slowing rate of growth, there's some sense of an "empty suit."

[@titusp9488]

@@Kirkrrr Yes 2023 was a tough year for most Chinese .... that can't be denied. As for economic growth ... it also can't be denied the EV sales generated double digit growth 30~50%. If the economy is truly as bad as you or others believe then this level of consumption should not exist. FYI - MSCI China earnings growth is at 27% for 2023. oh Cheap chinese EV , average price for EV is 30~50K USD...it isnt cheap. Average home prices well above 100K USD. Their standard of living isnt what we think it is.

[@DarkLordFaust666]

It takes an insane amount of effort to say nothing.

[@hotbodtz]

I live in Thailand and at the local level I see a surge of Chinese people coming into Thailand and setting up shop. I see it as a second wave of Chinese migration into Thailand and these started pre Covid but has picked up significantly since. This tells me the confidence on the ground level in China is very low and people are looking for greener pastures. Thailand is not a surprising destination. It is low cost and the Government basically turns and look the other way. Corruption will take care of any official restrictions. I estimate the Chinese diaspora here to be tens of thousands because it is happening in a few cities all over the country.

[@internetidentity3917]

Yeah, it's hard to ignore the growing exodus from China. You have thousands of Chinese hiring cartel guides to get them through the Darien Gap and on the way to the U.S. Why would they risk it? The emigration tells a tale that the Chinese gov't isn't interested in spreading.

[@NorCalMoDo]

make sense

[@karunama3771]

This is also why on the southern border of the US, the primary influx of illegal immigrants are arriving not from South America, but from China. There is a sense that things are so far gone in terms of confidence that they would choose an illegal existence over staying home, and that speaks volumes.

[@susss188]

First of all Why can you live there ? Operating massage parlors? The Chinese got no right to be there because They are yellow?

[@serriajohn]

People felt tired to live in megacities, they sold expensive houses in Shanghai and Beijing, moving to Thailand countryside to settle down for warm weather and retirement. this is as same as west immigrations to Thailand as well. Thailand is to develop tourism and elder care industry, while China focuses on manufacturing 4.0 upgrade, technology and innovation etc...Different national strategic policy will deliver different outcome in a long run.

[@bingmu]

Read the Chinese 5 year plan: 1) house is for living not for speculation. 2) structural reform for tech driven economy.

[@mfu9943]

Two issues: 1) Entrepreneurs confidence level is very low. Who is going to do the tech? 2) consumer confidence is low. Who is going to consume the output from the tech?

[@amitduwal3726]

​@@mfu9943 Yeah, if you were an entrepreneur in soft tech your morale would be very low , but morale very high for hard tech entrepreneurs.

[@enjoythedreamlife5658]

Housing was for investment. 90% of chinese own their own homes. china is flooded with useless properties that are decaying. China is a communist country that is wants to own all businesses.

[@alst4817]

5YP is a wish list, not a road map

[@amunra5330]

@@mfu9943for now. But time is not stagnant. And as China transitions its confidence grows

[@NorCalMoDo]

At least this panel includes someone physically based in China...

[@kenh4681]

The lady doesn't need to be physically in China, she can be based anywhere and just need to say whatever her editor advises what is politically correct. If life didn't return to normal, isn't she scared to go out the do the field reporting?

[@seymorefact4333]

if they are a panel or media created in the USA....THEY WORK FOR THE CIA! 10000%!

[@SavanaT]

Surprising to me how many of the panelists continue to be pro-govt, pro-consumer spending, pro-interventionist... instead of desiring a market based, natural growth path, where consumer and producers do their part naturally and organically. To push Beijing for stimulus checks for increased spending is a one-sided, inflation inviting act. 🙏♥

[@davidk.d.7591]

Beijing does need inflation right now though

[@steephanroy8461]

​@@davidk.d.7591does it need disfunctional companies.. that basically act as economic leaches. That's the question

[@tim71pos]

There is no such thing as a natural and organic capitalism with a natural growth path. It's a social system directed by human institutions.

[@guiwhiz]

They can't. They don't have the population numbers... as crazy as that sounds. The percentage of their population in the 'primary consumer band' (20-45 years old with children) is absolutely too low to sustain a 'consumer and producer organic supply and demand based' economy. Japan has the same problem; which is why they have been struggling with 'stagflation' where price points just don't move much.

[@davidk.d.7591]

@@guiwhiz I think the demographics play less of a role in the Japanese stagnation than simple economics

[@desmondshum2215]

I doubt anyone base their investment decisions on IMF projections 😂

[@serriajohn]

The stock price of the United States has skyrocketed, the reservoir is full, and a big pipe is needed to hold the water. Therefore, the United States comes to China to obtain political guarantees, anchor the U.S. dollar with Chinese goods, make investment safe and stable, and achieve a soft landing of the U.S. economy.

[@MrJonezy541]

You'd be surprised

[@Bigbudd0045]

@@serriajohn .......clueless

[@serriajohn]

@@Bigbudd0045Can you name what would anchor the dollar except Chinese goods? Oil (the US is an oil exporter against APEC interests)? Semiconductor high end chips (not in production yet)? Meta Universe (new concept, not really marketed yet), AI robot (not yet profitable)?

[@guiwhiz]

@@serriajohn The same thing that has anchored the US Dollar for decades unto nearly 75 years now. The military industrial complex and infrastructure work pushing domestic spending high on big machinery and industrial materials like concrete, asphalt, rubber, steel, etc.

[@tyko2686]

Should also bring this panel to provide their takes on US economy as well

[@kennethkong5484]

cHINA ECONOMY GREW TWICE THAT OF USA IN 2023

[@juliekrolak1450]

Why? They don't study the US economy.

[@schloops8473]

why? Oh right, when we talk of the US, we talk of the US, but when we talk of china... we should be talking of the US? NO THX. The ccp has destroyed china and there is no reason to shy from that fact.

[@zhanwenchen9238]

@@juliekrolak1450 They should. No judgement without comparison.

[@juliekrolak1450]

​@zhanwenchen9238 there are lots of other experts who do that and no one gets upset. Don't be so overly sensitive. What's happening in China is fascinating.

[@ernestwatkins212]

As the Moderator said: too much emphasis on what should be done!!! We all know that these things will never happen. I would much prefer these knowledgeable people to focus on what each of them believes WILL happen. Much better than listening to fairy tales.

[@blafonovision4342]

Economic growth is China is easy. The central government announces growth targets. The provincial governments then report that growth, plus a little extra. Voila.

[@scienceguo]

idiot you are

[@johnnyaro]

Whwre is Gordon Chang?

[@3506Dodge]

Whwre are you?

[@yoyolim538]

Sulking somewhere

[@FrankiePo89]

He's at home, holding onto his stale popcorn bought two decades ago, awaiting for "D DAY" to salivate it.

[@kalipotmeng]

I don't really get why these experts talk china into increasing tax and at the same time say that people don't spend enough money. If they have to pay higher tax then they'll spend even less, won't they? The other confusing thing is that these experts say more market force more market force, but which market force will drive china into tech driven high value add economy? If left to the market, chinese will keep buying iphones, Teslas and having Nvedia in computing centers. What will china make themselves? Does this remind anybody of Europe? They follow the US submissively and now what? Does europe have any tech company other than AMSL?

[@happyhappynuts]

Europe doesn't have Intel, but it has Airbus. China can not have Nvidia because it has Jinko, Longi, Suntech. Trying to ask other countries accept more Chinese exports will not work unless also buying some foreign goods. The key to Chinese development is destroy Hukou system + corn/rice price controls. This system keeps peasants poor so white collar workers in Shanghai have cheap food. If food was appropriately priced, the disposable incomes would not have been there to create housing bubble

[@Bigbudd0045]

they have pharma. Mercedes, BMW are all tech driven. ARM is British. China has garbage tech and cant make AI chips on their own.

[@schloops8473]

Europe still has plenty tech company but yah, we basically invented everything the last 500 years until recently and now we're losing plenty to the US because our leaders are idiots and to china because it steals our intellectual rights and... our leaders are idiots

[@Birch37]

Meanwhile, Geoffrey Sachs and Ray Dalio are on a street corner still flogging Chinese Investment 😅😂

[@guiwhiz]

Of course they are... they've obviously got a pile sunk into Chinese shares, likely including the real estate sector, etc. and need that investment to carry through to the point of panic I imagine.

[@toothlessseer3153]

With IMF 'expert' Steven Barnett beating the drums at his side 😆

[@astralislux305]

Discussion starts at 5:11

[@Petergoforth]

Is the question of confidence or competence? To be sure, the two seem to be inextricably tied to each other.

[@melvinch]

The answer is obvious . Lack of confidence from the people and lack of competence from the CCPee. 😆

[@kushkant4847]

Which system??

[@barrylane4164]

Thank you so much!!! What a great panel and moderator! I am on my way to China next month for my first visit and this presentation has really helped prepare me!!!

[@Alex-ig2xr]

No, they are not. Most of them only see problems but not solutions. That’s what economists do. There predictions are based on previous experience, not creative thinking. Chinese government is quite different.

[@amunra5330]

You will LOVE China- its not what it is portrayed in the western media. I have the honor of visiting China last summer and it blew my mind.

[@schloops8473]

@@amunra5330yah, you will love the ccp telling everybody to hate you because of your origins and skin color; you will love the cops continuously harrassing you. You will love not being allowed to go where you want and you will love the poisonous food and water. And then there's the lack of access to data and everything you say being either censored or getting you arrested. FANTASTIC GULAG!

[@johnbanwell6391]

The IMF guy is a clown. Shocking.

[@TomTomicMic]

You can have 5% growth if you take on 17% non productive debt to pay for it, China's debt is 57 Trillion USD to 2023, 60 Trillion USD in 2024, IMF are useless!?!

[@amunra5330]

Oh oh did he trigger you😂 China has been around for over 3000 years. Long after the US is gone China will be here

[@titusp9488]

yeah ? Can you be more specific about his "clownishness"?

[@an1856]

Excellent panel and excellent moderation! Round 2 in the future, please

[@WSOJ3]

No no no. The Chinese economic crisis started 2001, and the economy clasped in 2008 per Gordon the expert Chang😂🤷‍♂️

[@3506Dodge]

How are you able to get through the chinese internet blocks?

[@WSOJ3]

@@3506Dodge what, did I say something wrong? Did you not know Gordon the expert Chang? Have you not heard the “Coming Collapse of China” in 2008 predicted in 2001? 🤔😂😂🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️ Here is a daily dose of reality for you, if China’s 5% GDP growth means an economic collapse for you, then what does the Western 0.5-1% GDP growth even mean? 🤔🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️

[@guydreamr]

Regardless of what someone may have said in the past, the fact is, *this* is the day that China is facing a significant downturn on multiple fronts.

[@WSOJ3]

@@guydreamrIf a 5% GDP growth means an economic collapse, then what do those 0.5-1% Western GDP growth numbers even mean? 🤔🤷‍♂️

[@guydreamr]

@@WSOJ3 That was last year. And as the old saying goes, no one reads yesterday's newspaper. What happens *this* year, however, is anyone's guess.

[@kikemarugan4843]

Brilliant panel

[@petergreen5337]

😂 i find it AMAZING how people who have NEVER ruled a country are ALWAYS telling us how to rule.

[@georgeloh7943]

What have you done for your country to teach China here What experience do you have?

[@Bigbudd0045]

They went over their credentials at the beginning. Its a fucking panel. Do you have no idea how that works?

[@edwardnull5447]

The 5.2 and 4 6 numbers are going to end up adjusted downword.

[@0rbital]

how are you going to sell homes when the population is decreasing? And with the median age rapidly rising that would definitely dampen domestic consumption.

[@jameskamotho7513]

And nobody brought that up...

[@bubblebobble9654]

I think the idea is purple moving to urban centers where the new jobs are. Also you will always have new home construction due to aging infrastructure even with decreasing population. In China's case it's just a question where to build the new housing.

[@mingshentse5069]

@@bubblebobble9654 urbanization in China has reached a relativly high level, very little space to the peak level.

[@titusp9488]

there are still 1.4 billion people

[@jameskamotho7513]

@@titusp9488 Those numbers are disputed and home ownership is already at over 90% with many households having more than one home.

[@hclau218]

😂😂😂😂😂 "centre for studies"?? What studies? Studies on how to repeat the same crap about "China Economic collapse" that was pushed by Western "Experts" since 1981?? Has the collapse began? Yes, from 1981 😂😂😂

[@petergreen5337]

❤well said and well OBSERVED

[@jamesmit100]

Great great discussion and video it is! Thank you.

[@maho_cn]

everyone just looking for Yanmei

[@wtf.O_O]

Surprisingly good to have front-lone reporter presenting. Make the whole discussion more relevant to the changing and information censored environment.

[@jensensean7118]

The Chinese government would be making the biggest economic mistake if it stops the arm twising of the property sector this time. Glad it is hitting the nail on the head. Sure ther is a lack of new driver big enough to pick up the slack. Reduction of new investment by foreign firms and even withdrawal are partially because they have become less attractive in the Chinese market, or have become less competitive in technology.

[@Bigbudd0045]

They built 80Million more housing units then they needed. And people bought them, and the loans from them powered the last 15 years....exactly how do you replace that? If China had a freely floated currency, and had tamped down on capital...their currency would have cratered and as is, all the wealthy have been trying to get their money out of china for a while.

[@kushkant4847]

What are/is SOE??

[@zcy9296]

State owned enterprises

[@thomasrogers9146]

The chinese economy is done with low level value added manufacturing and is now focused on high values manufacturing and slow sustainability growth of 5%.. China leads the world in factory automation and robotics. THE CHINESE ECONOMY DOES NOT NEED AN ARMY OF WORKER'S ANY MORE BECAUSE OF AUTOMATION. CHINA HAS SMART FACTORIES SEA PORTS,MINES ALL RUN BY CLOUD COMPUTING AND 5 G. TECHNOLOGICALLY NOT AN ARMY OF PEOPLE. AFTER 30 YEARS OF AMERICAN OBSESSION WITH THE COMMING COLLAPSE OF CHINA ITS TIME TO LEAVE CHINA ALONE AND FOCUS ON HOMELESSNESS IN AMERICA.

[@greenlandconsulting]

It’s overall a very disappointing panel because those people have very much based on their view on very outdated information on issues such as Hukou, SOE…. But with the exception of Eunice who is on the ground and updated with the pulses.

[@brotherbig4651]

Hukou is still in China. It is still extremely hard to get a Hukou in any first-tier cities.

[@marioformosa4259]

Like Musk said, when China's GDP gets to twice or three times that of US it would be a different ball game

[@schloops8473]

meanwhile, the chinese economy and currency are in the toilet

[@trails3597]

Excellent discussion. I've heard other analysts reflect this confidence view.

[@calvingoh9321]

The problem with China's historic fiscal interventions is that there is a declining marginal benefit of public investment as the low-hanging fruit is picked. What remains is the more tricky part of reforming sectors, boosting public sector productivity, and getting Chinese consumers spending. I don't think boosting fiscal spending alone solves the lack of reform and timid Chinese consumers. No country has ever spent its way out of an economic crises if the spending was not focused on sorting the fundamental drivers of the crises. Xi is not remotely interested in sorting these fundamental issues, indeed, he is one of the major issues so no. Not very often and def. not in the case of China under Xi's CCP.

[@internetidentity3917]

well said

[@agenthex]

> I don't think boosting fiscal spending alone solves the lack of reform and timid Chinese consumers Of course not, the fiscal spending is social investment for the future, a concept which evidently doesn't exist in the west. > Xi is not remotely interested in sorting these fundamental issues Xi is literally the guy behind the projects keeping them going right now, eg. BRI & tech investment. Regurgitating CNN isn't terribly good use of your limited capacity, even if that lot does it to signal subservience to the american empire.

[@internetidentity3917]

@@agenthex you're looking at it too ideologically. The Chinese gov't is running out of infrastructure projects that return benefits commensurate with their costs. They were able to accelerate growth with this spending for decades but now they need something to replace part of that GDP growth. The obvious answer is to return more money to the Chinese citizen and let them spend it i.e. consumption, but that requires the Party giving up some of their power and isn't likely in Xi's China.

[@RobertNeptune]

Not even wrong, you don’t know what you are talking about, just making arrogant claims and use them as proofs. You got everything almost exactly upside down.

[@SeanPan-it3jm]

Sure we see crisis of some kind, if they do nothing and the trends continued they will have some kind of trouble 40 years down the road.

[@paulmeier3462]

For me, you can't have a communist government heading a western capitalist economic model. Western style economies go up and down, and when it goes down you vote in a new government, which releases any pent up social pressure. In China, you don't have that release valve. They have had a crazy rise and will probably now have a crazy fall, but there isn't the system there to change the government to compensate for that. So, the government has two choices, change or double-down. I think we can see which way they are going.

[@Rb-fp7mw]

Spot on

[@DotaBillfuc]

If by venting you mean by waging wars in foreign countries and diverting domestic tension to foreign policy by creating an enemy, then sure.

[@amunra5330]

Well China has had an autocratic system for thousands of years. The name may have changed but there has always been one dynasty (now party- the CCP) and a ruler/leader. And it always had a capitalist economy dating the time of the Dynasties from the Song to the Qing. Only during the early years of Communist rule they had a centrally run economy and when that failed they returned to a capitalist system. That is why the Chinese socialist mixed economy works.

[@henli-rw5dw]

That's incorrect. Western style economy hasn't gone down since 2008 and probably will not go down again because the debt level is too high, so they have to maintain easy money policy at all times. Debt will be unsustainable if another downturn happens.

[@agoodchow]

Encounter problems, tackle the issue right on, change the thinking and reform, and find an alternative and work out a solution. That's how CCP worked in the past and still doing same nowadays. "Release valve" popping out is escaping, not problem solving

[@defective6811]

Panel action starts after introductions at 5:10

[@roderickcampbell2105]

Great panel. I may disagree with some of these statements, but I respect the panel.

[@AnhPhan-yw1ur]

how do you have 5.2% growth when your economy is in deflation ? i am confident that their numbers are bs.

[@NorCalMoDo]

Japan GDP has been growing while being deflating. not sure how it happened...

[@hdaviator9181]

A deflating economy can still grow if the quantity of goods and services produced increases, but its basically pointless growth because most people don't feel it.

[@brotherbig4651]

@@NorCalMoDoNot at 5.2%. Not to mention the unemployment rate is even more scary in China.

[@serriajohn]

China's National Energy Administration: The national electricity market traded 5.7 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Every product is made using electricity, and manufacturing industry is the foundation of sevice indusry and finance activity.

[@serriajohn]

China's GDP is 80% that of the United States, and its electricity consumption is twice that of the United States. How do you evaluate the GDP of the United States? Do attorney fees create actual wealth?

[@michaelsamuel7365]

People will spend if they know where their next dollar is coming from. This can be achieved with some basic introductipns.

[@scottmarquardt3575]

what about 300%gdp to dept. with a good way to tax people.

[@serriajohn]

It is common to push negative info about China while keep investing China. Economy works in this way! because China is coming the largest consuming market by 2030, expected to increase 16%, US is the 2nd market, increaing 4%, India the 3rd , increasing 36%. China and US will remain the important consuming market by 2050 till India catch up and surpass US to be the 2nd consuming market.

[@junkscience6397]

@@serriajohnFunny how you completely leave out a little thing called Demographics? LOL. Chinese population is OLDER now than the US on average, while new births have CRASHED. And you talk about 2050? LOL. Good grief. Let's talk in 2030 first, huh?

[@zhengwenping4764]

​@ser 13:57 riajohn

[@serriajohn]

@@junkscience6397 Rand Corporation is Top ThinkTank of of the United States , it released a research report titled "China's Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories, and Long-Term Competition." The report believes that although China's economy faces different challenges in the development process, China will still become the world's largest economy sometime after 2030; China’s scientific and technological innovation and capabilities will help further the development of China’s economy by 2050.

[@serriajohn]

@@junkscience6397 According to simulation analysis by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the number of middle- and high-income households (household income above 160,000 yuan) and high-income households (per capita income above 100,000 yuan) in China is expected to reach 200 million in 2025, and is expected to reach 200 million in 2030. Reaching 260 million households. Continuous urbanization and rising income levels are expected to continue to drive consumption growth. Daniel Zipser, head of McKinsey's Asia consumer and retail practice, believes that considering China's huge market size, this means that retail sales will increase by 10 trillion yuan in the next five years. "In the long term, this growth will make China the world's largest single growth market. An increase of this size will be equivalent to today's retail sales in India, Indonesia and South Korea combined."

[@noahway13]

Too many experts on the panel. Reduce size.

[@neelakantpatel]

See the specialisation US has in various areas. India should also develops such a talent pool.

[@schloops8473]

we shouldn't invest in India and we shouldn't have indians in any strategic sector. We know they'll steal the knowledge and sell it to our enemies. They've shown how much they hate us by clapping everytime Ukrianian civilians are ***** by putin.

[@Alex-ig2xr]

All they need to do is raise minimum wages by 15% to improve income and wealth distribution.

[@guiwhiz]

Doesn't really work that way. Their minimum wage laws aren't 'nearly all inclusive' like the US and EU ones are. Far too many exceptions to the rule of who counts as a 'minimum wage' worker.

[@faketrump3605]

"Has THE Crisis Started"? what a good question. are we there yet? no worries, honey. just keep harping on it.

[@wma2140]

Happy talk from the IMF guy.

[@Andromeda365]

Wow, a different opinion from the IMF guy. Why couldn't he just fall in line with everyone else? 🤦🏻‍♂️

[@TomTomicMic]

Paid off by Russia and China!?!

[@GordonJones-hm3kr]

Totally clueless talk from IMF guy, is anyone surprised ?

[@titusp9488]

Logan Wright, Partner at the Rhodium Group is a half-wit quoting numbers but not understanding them. Example he says China dont collect much on personal tax 1. Tax is shouldered by corporations - which means the government get the money before even distributed to the person (Taxed already or double taxation). 2. Taxation go from 2 to 45% depending on income ( those who dont pay tax ... goes to jail)

[@magnuslord]

The number of EV sales is significantly counterfeit. There are fields of abandoned EVs.

[@BR-hi6yt]

They did not mention the national debt being to large to service and local government debt also too large now. I see severe contraction of the economy now because the investment model has come to its end now (too much money was printed). The consequences will be disruptive imo.

[@amunra5330]

The Chinese central absorbs this debt.

[@davidk.d.7591]

National debt isn't large. Local is though

[@Bigbudd0045]

Yeah, if you add in local government debt, Chinese debt to gdp ratio is horrific compared to the US. The Chinese have also printed more money since 2000 than the US has...by a factor of like 100.

[@davidk.d.7591]

@@Bigbudd0045 not really. US and Chinese debt to GDP ratio are pretty comparable if you add federal, state and local. The biggest issue is that local governments in China don't have a sustainable way to generate revenue because there are no property taxes. That's why a tax reform is really necessary.

[@bernardzsikla5640]

I wish I heard the simple concept that because China is a authoritarian regime and the economy is centrally planned, it will very challenging to straighten the economy out when the free market system isn't actually free. Does anyone believe that the political leadership is invested in the free market economy? Yes, they love that the free market brought China to where they are now but the foundational principle in the party political school is how to stay in power/control.

[@stevepailet8258]

looking at the various sectors in the chinese economy I keep wondering where the growth is going to come from. EV sales took a dip this past month. Metals are down with some major companies in 'distress', Furniture is down, appliances are down not much need for housing materials is also down. (There seem to be 3 BILLION units under construction... Who is going to occupy them? There is a demographic crisis going on .. less than 10 million births in a population of '1.4' billion people. I actually think it i much lower According to those taking census it was over counted by 100 million. Then there is covid losses that could over the past 3 plus years could have easily taken out another 100 mllion. I figure this by looking at # of crematoriums that each one is doing 20 per day or more. Then multiplying times the number of days. With world wide recession on the horizon seems that exports and imports both are way down. Seems that daily there are many companies who are decoupling and abandoning production in China. Bright spots that I do see are in the energy sector.. making solar panels seems up but not to sure as profits may be down due to drops in the prices. They apparently are bringing new tofu nuclear reactors on line. I look at the joint venture with the french company who withdrew as they were not happy with the poor quality of the facility being constructed. Belt and road at this point is near a complete stop. I would like to know what kind of declines in pricing power is happening thru the economy.

[@guiwhiz]

Ah someone else who looks at the other pieces of the puzzle to figure out the shape of the demographic and economic pieces. Yep. I'm willing to put money on the population of China is hovering somewhere just above 1B and shrinking rapidly.

[@SeanPan-it3jm]

Let's ask those experts who signed your pay checks????

[@LanNguyen-vd4zt]

Your mom’s or your daddy ?

[@SeanPan-it3jm]

They consider whoever sign their pay checks---Mom and Dad.@@LanNguyen-vd4zt

[@gbadspcps2]

Notice all the angry comments from the usernames with a word followed by 3 or 4 letters that intentionally keep their criticism as vague as possible so as not to reveal that they are bots.

[@MichaelJamesAuthor]

IMF reps on a panel is a wasye of time. Pls

[@henryterranauta9100]

Nice panel exchange of views. Guest elephant parable is approximately used 👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼 China in amongst many growing countries in problem solving. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸CSIS ought include USA in its analyses since your shining home country is living on borrowing time since Nixon ! 🔥🇨🇳🇨🇳🇺🇸🇺🇸🇨🇳🇨🇳🇺🇸🇺🇸 34:48

[@srinivasraokaruturi9777]

A comment on the effect of demographics , societal changes to delayed mariages, etc would've been good, as it will have significant effect on the economy over the next 20 yrs. THE Real estate savings, being wiped out, and the 'lack of children' to support the now middle aged and retiring folks. The double whammy, was the crazy ONE child policy...which not only created a Bulging middle demographics, most importanly, this one child they had, or chose to have, was MALE. so, less females. almost 40:60 ratio of female to male. this imbalance, and add to this the social dynamic change of females choosing to have children at a later age, or not at all...All makings and ingreidients to a Perfect storm lasting next 20-30 yrs!!

[@sampotter4455]

Is the IMF guy on staff w the CCP?

[@davidhhl162]

Just another GORDON CHAN copy of Good feel gossip talk shop about china collapsing TIME TO MOVE ON 😂

[@TheLastEmperorXiXinPig]

Here in China we convinced the IMF to invest in Evergrande stocks.

[@junkscience6397]

You do know that the number two contributor to the IMF is...wait for it...the CCP government? LOL. China's REALLY dumb, then, isn't it? Yes, yes it is!

[@amunra5330]

Actually 4 years ago the Chinese government TOLD investors that it was clamping down on the housing sector. It was published in the 13th 5 year plan. The problem with Western investors is that they are narcissistic and dont listen to Chinese people as white people have a sense of superiority.

[@paulwally9007]

Hey! Don't hog all the honey!

[@subhrachakraborty5273]

Fire of the dragon is coming to an end

[@user-sz1fe2vd9s]

no.western dragon and chinese loong have tremendous difference.

[@presterjohn1697]

@@user-sz1fe2vd9s Tremendous? You sure about that?

[@weewillywonga]

Nobody cares. They're make believe creatures. ​@@user-sz1fe2vd9s

[@junkscience6397]

@@user-sz1fe2vd9sLOONG? LOL. You can't even do your Pinyin right! Follow the CCP to OBLIVION! LOL.

[@agoodchow]

Reported on CNBC on March 9, 2024 : A Marketing Expert stationed in China : "China economy is weak, but not all that weak"

[@kushkant4847]

5 persons panel, too many. You took too long just to introduce them.

[@simonwong223]

Good morning ! And if I don't see you, good afternoon good evening & good night !! Official GDP 5.3 % actual 1.3%

[@shanghaiffgg]

Yanmei Xia: you may think of a crisis like the US in 2008. In the other hand we all think of a crisis like the cultural revolution.

[@BlackBeltMonkeySong]

I think when she says that China will not have a crisis like 2008, what she really means is that the ongoing crisis will not be talked about like that. At least not in China. And the reason for that is the ability of the CCP to control the message. When you look through the smoke and mirrors, you see that China has already experienced a massive upheaval on the order of 2008. For example, in 2008, about 800 billion of value evaporated. Just two property developers in China account for 500 billion, and that's in a smaller economy, and as of today we still don't know who's getting the haircut, and how.

[@shanghaiffgg]

I don't think so. The real estate crash has only started and has many years left to run before it comes close to bottom out. when it has dropped 25%-50% we will see panic setting in and the social consequences of that. Then we can begin to think about it being a 2008 style crisis.@@BlackBeltMonkeySong

[@maho_cn]

cry louder pls

[@shanghaiffgg]

@@BlackBeltMonkeySong exactly. She is shilling like she usually does. The impact of the crash has been enormous and is getting worse by the day. The Chinese public are still in the denial stage because transaction volume has been so low but the crash will make the 2008 crisis look like a walk in the park. The entire top 10 developers are in the processes of going bust. Maybe they won’t talk about in China but that doesn’t mean it’s happening. Hundreds of millions of Chinese are in the process of losing their life savings right now.

[@windfall35]

How trustworthy is the financial and social information coming out of China?

[@jordymaas565]

speak with any living outside mainland...

[@loongdechuanren1008]

China's exports Rise 7.1% in 1st two-month of 2024 because of BRICS Despite Western Media Propaganda! kzbin.info/www/bejne/rqfSi4uIrb-SZqs

[@guiwhiz]

Utter nonsense. China imports raw materials across the board except for Coal for the most part and their partners they import from are all reporting lower order numbers.

[@joperc]

Meanwhile 34 American CEO visit Beijing for the China Development Forum 2024, and Apple opened it's second-largest store globally in Shanghai, oh well.....

[@thepopcornmonger3434]

It's been an ongoing thing as their grain baskets have all been pretty mich rotated floods for the last five years. Just saying...

[@netizencapet]

Very glad the group finally hit the nail on the head with deflation/contraction & need for demand-side stimulus & currency devaluation. Demand side can also happen via job creation in SERVICE sector (vs. just production), esp. in health care, education & money to access both! Reason they wont: fiscal space is a lot tighter than ppl typically estimate (I read a really interesting paper explaining this). Yet now is the time also for Xi to make critical geopolitical concessions to secure market access, boost FDI, & central bank support from US. Very much appreciated review of TAX reforms that China could make to better equip itself. Also for demand/stability, PRC should pass comprehensive DEPOSITORS' INSURANCE & strictly enforce WAGE payment laws. Yanmie Xie was particularly salient.

[@guiwhiz]

FDI is a non-starter as long as Xi is still in power. Nobody will trust him not to do a u-turn (like has happened multiple times). Even more than repressive conditions business leadership hates uncertain conditions.

[@3506Dodge]

How are you all able to get through the Chinese internet blocks?

[@guiwhiz]

It really isn't that hard, but I'm not going to tell a bot how it's done to provide any idea of how to restrict information flow further.

[@zhengwenping4764]

0:50 0:51

[@GeoScorpion]

At 29:29 Steve Barnett tries to compare the consumer confidence in China to the consumer confidence in "a lot of economies" as being "low." However, if you take one of those people from the other countries and drop them into what the average Chinese person is suffering this year, I think that other person wouldn't have a "low" confidence but rather (compared to their own country) a "less than no" confidence and hopelessness. Low consumer confidence in other countries cannot be compared to low confidence in China. Further, the original Covid-19 pandemic has already run its course in China, but whatever 'recovery' was expected never happened for several reasons: (1) They kept getting hit with other health issues from White Lung to killer influenza to sudden outbreaks of cancer and even (though it is a meme) "Crispy Skin"/"Crispy College Student" syndrome. Meme or not; anecdotal or not the sight of crowded hospitals again and the financial hit of having to go to the hospital and fill prescriptions affected people. (2) Local governments are desperately trying to raise funds by fining people exorbitant sums for fictional offenses (e.g. Too much mud on car tires, cutting cucumbers incorrectly in a restaurant, etc.) (3) Children are not getting married and having grandchildren. The "Last Generation" trend has put a massive and sudden break on the spending of Boomers and Millenials as parents and grandparents begin to realize they may be on their own as they get old. (4) A lack of legal recourse when their savings are stolen by the local government, state-owned banks, employers, building developers, etc. Even the inviolate right to petition Beijing is now gone and you can be arrested by local officials if you try. This has always been a problem in lower-tier cities and rural areas, but now it is endemic as all credit has dried up and development has halted with no help from the national government. I've said it before and I will say it again: When peasants take up arms, it's a 'revolt' that gets quickly put down, maybe with a few concessions. When the Middle Class 'revolts,' however, it is a 'revolution' that is often pretty successful. America, Poland, France... Even the Bolsheviki in Russia were mostly working-class (unlike the peasant Socialist Revolutionary Party) whose wealth was stripped away in the years leading up to and including WWI. Xi and the CCP at this point are in a Tacitus Trap. The "foolish and hard-working" Xi Jinping is seen by everyone at this point to be careening from one disastrous solution to the next. Even the Little Pinks and Tankies seem uncharacteristically subdued and half-hearted, lately... and the Wumao may have to change their name to the "25-cent Army."

[@internetidentity3917]

@GeoScorpion Number two alone would be enough to drive me out.

[@mateunlock2023]

😀You're not a good liar, are you

[@GeoScorpion]

@@mateunlock2023 No, I'm not. That's why I tell the truth. Lies are just too difficult to maintain in an age of instant fact-checking. Why? Do you think that you are a good liar? Do you think you would be able to sustain your lies under even a simple set of questions? I'm sure where you come from, lying is like breathing so you feel that you are good at it... It's probably because nobody bothers to tell you to your face that you're not good at it, either.

[@mateunlock2023]

@@GeoScorpion A foreigner gets information from BBC CNN CNBC to evaluate China, you are doing a great job! I suggest you look at some vlogs of foreigners in China and then we discuss your bias

[@GeoScorpion]

@@mateunlock2023 ROFLOL! You're pretty condescending. I actually do watch Matt and Winston on their own blogs as well as The China Show (and even watched their wives' blogs before the Little Pinks forced them to take them down). I watch the NTD shows like China In Focus as well as the essay-type shows like China Observer, China Truths, China Insights, etc. I'm a fan of China Insider with David Zhang. Etc. At a higher level, I also religiously watch and take notes with 'Digging to China, China Update, and Lei's Real Talk. I have those shows running on a side monitor while I work doing research, analysis and writing reports on... China. I'm not sure who you thought you were talking to on this KZbin chat, but it wasn't the "Dumb American" trope that you thought you were talking to. You may want to look up "Dunning-Kruger Effect" on Wikipedia because you, Like Xi, seem to be stuck in one.

[@zhengwenping4764]

10:29

[@harrisng3041]

🔥 China political news coming from USA is very negative. 🦅 China trade and business news coming from ASEAN RUSSIA AND BRICS IS VERY POSITIVE AND HEALTHY. ... HARRIS NG YM 🦅🇨🇳🦅

[@Petergoforth]

During my years in China, I learned that one should subtract (generally) 6 percent as a fudge-factor adjustment from such economic numbers. Thus, the 5.2 percentage growth should be a -1.2 negative growth. This would seem to better reflect the reality on the ground.

[@serriajohn]

China do not have house tax, rent tax, herritage tax while US can get billions of dollar income from lawsuit.

[@junkscience6397]

@@serriajohnTriggered, are we? "Herritage" tax?? LOL. Have a Social Credit, Little Pink!

[@amunra5330]

Actually social credit is exaggerated. All my Chinese friends when I visited China said this social credit narrative is bs from the west lol. When I traveled around China on the High Speed Train I asked so many people and some people even asked what the heck is a social credit score!. Trust me its propaganda nonsense. @@junkscience6397

[@jklee5419]

And whom did you learned from ? Gordon Chang？😂😂😂😂

[@Polit_Burro]

LOL No. The answer is "No". This is all Star-spangled projection.

[@junkscience6397]

Things in China are SO great...LOL. Incredibly naive.

[@Polit_Burro]

@@junkscience6397 LOL How much is in your wallet? LOL

[@Polit_Burro]

A mouth full of $18 dollar Big Macs and pointing their greasy fingers and mumbling "China fail" LOL 🍔🤡🤡🤡

[@TomTomicMic]

Chinas crisis began in 2008 and still has not addressed any of it problems, which are accumaliting!?!

[@amunra5330]

Says who?

[@denisdufresne5338]

How can they use the chinese growth numbers when these numbers are manipulated...

[@seancurtin5609]

the west needs add 40% tariff on all Chinese imports plus charge China for all the IP theft

[@scepisle4970]

Lived and worked in China for over 30 years.. mamdarin speaker... Never underestimate the Chinese.. very very smart people....

[@tim71pos]

I guess I don't understand what these people are saying here. They are talking about falling prices, both in consumer goods and in real estate. They have neglected to mention that FDI has fallen off a cliff. They have not broached the topic of how many of the overbuilt houses are tofu buildings that have to be torn down, I think probably a large percentage is not real wealth in the sense of physical capital. When you have falling prices and accumulating unsold inventory and rising unemployment, you have a classic capitalist crisis. The crisis might be of the normal cyclical kind, typical of Western economies. Or it might be something else. It might be the beginning of a long-term retreat from capitalist as a social form. China did this once before it had during the song dynasty an economy that looked strikingly capitalist and seemed on the verge of sending its ships out to carry trade around the world. And perhaps they could have even colonized Europe. Knows? But instead the bureaucratic class pulled back from the implications of devolving. Too much power onto the rising capitalist class and they basically snuffed the entire Chinese capitalist experiment. I think that is what is happening in China right now. Another thing that we haven't discussed is whether the stimulus of military spending can compensate for deficiencies in demand for consumer products, and whether the need to boost the economy would dovetail with China's tempestuous and aggressive demands against the Philippines, the Japanese, etc. so anyhow, a lot of high powered talent here, but overall a very disappointing foray into the subject. Was this done at Harvard? That would explain why the analysts are holding back. First of all, they would be allergic to admitting there could be any long-term problem with grafting capitalism onto a country and second of all they're going to be very restrained about antagonizing their funding sources. I would also point out that the severity of the dictatorship will prevent foreign capital from coming in and buying assets at the trough of a depression. That's good for Chinese nationalism, but on the other hand, it means that some of the cushion of foreign bailouts will not be available the way it was during the crisis of 1998, which was a southeast Asian crisis, not a Chinese crisis.

[@SaveWater-sc7rh]

It is very hard to understand how serious people can believe China statistics. Of course these numbers are inflated. If construction is behind at least 25% ot the growth - and it collapses - of course the growth is low. Elementary, my dear Watson.

[@Polit_Burro]

Enjoy your $18 Big Mac's. 😅

[@serriajohn]

The stock price of the United States has skyrocketed, the reservoir is full, and a big pipe is needed to hold the water. Therefore, the United States comes to China to obtain political guarantees, anchor the U.S. dollar with Chinese goods, make investment safe and stable, and achieve a soft landing of the U.S. economy.

[@davidk.d.7591]

Not how it works. Residential construction is declining, commercial is still growing. The 25% covers everything from the construction to the surrounding industry. Not everything is falling there. Plus there's still other growth drivers.

[@johnm7267]

What crisis? More to the point has the wests crisis started. Britains GDP 0.5% and in recession. Russias economy the best in Europe. These figures from western analysts. America has 70 million people without healthcare and 87 million with no money and thousands living on the streets. Poor Cuba sanctioned for 75 years provides free healthcare and education. A high stock market is no indication of a countries wealth. Russia a gas station masquerading as a country is self sufficient in practically everything and its economy the strongest in Europe. These so called experts would be better looking at their own country’s economies

[@resnica3557]

Center for Strategic & International Studies: Has THE Crisis of China's Economy Started? Gordon Chang: Have you guys never seen or heard of my MASTERPIECE “The Coming Collapse of China" as of this year 2024? And you guys are just now asking this stupid question? For Your Information, I have been making tons of money since about 2 decades ago, when the first printing of it came out. And the whole thing has been making me ever more filthy rich since.

[@hungryghost3260]

Too wonky for me.

[@naidudhananjay-wl3hy]

70% of debit in china economy

[@stewartbone4236]

Unless the data is accurate, all discussion is pure speculation.

[@zhoubaidinh403]

China has 2-3 europe in the countryside...I am sure they can always look inside for markets to absrb excess capacities, the labor needed in an aging population and peeps to live in housings repo'ed by the government at pennies on the dollar at the expense of intnt'l stock/bond speculators...oh and never forget shuving money and capital into its military industrial complex, an essential nutrient in any well balanced diet, as Washington and the collective west have virtually declared war on it for the great sin of having developed too fast, too strong, esp for non white entities.

[@felixf.3392]

According to the official figures from the EU Commission, the US share of global GDP is 15.5 percent. China's share of global GDP, however, is 18.4 percent. US growth was 2.4 percent in 2023. China's growth was 5.2 percent in 2023. Growth of 1.4 percent is forecast for the US in 2024 and growth of 1.8 percent in 2025. Growth of 4.6 percent is forecast for China in 2024 and growth of 4.6 percent in 2025. So which economy is bigger and has greater growth potential for the future?

[@juvexp2000]

China’s number is faked.

[@serriajohn]

China is coming the largest consuming market by 2030, expected to increase 16%, US is the 2nd market, increaing 4%, India the 3rd , increasing 36%. China and US will remain the important consuming market by 2050 till India catch up and surpass US to be the 2nd consuming market.

[@alectictac]

The one that doesn't need to hide unemployment numbers

[@felixf.3392]

@@alectictac The USA had the greatest financial crisis of all time in the 1920s. At that time, the stock market collapsed by 50 percent and company profits by 90 percent. And yet the US was the largest economic power of the 20th century precisely because it had the industrial capacity and labor force to make it possible. And exactly the same thing is happening with China in the 21st century.

[@alectictac]

@@felixf.3392 Good luck when you are a net importer of food and energy, and rely on outside investment.

[@PleaseGetReal]

The Yanks should be more worried about their own economy ! Look at their homeless and their infrastructure !

[@user-vj4sn1hk3n]

May be a long long way down to china reality and no more just images haha.

[@mysticalwind4632]

Spreading wishful thinking by way of narratives is not a strategy.

[@garypowell1540]

Typically, these economists miss out the most important factor, this is the Chinese people themselves. If a very large proportion of them have not yet completely lost confidence in their own economic and political system then they soon enough will. Many hard working people have their entire futures invested in the Chinese property market, and many of these people will have died of old age before they see any income or benefit from a lifetime of hard work and thrift. Hardly any of these closed businesses will ever come back, the hopes and dreams of countless millions of people has been flushed down the toilet with no wealfare state or children to help support them. Nearly two generationms of Chinese people have only known a rapidly growing economy and have largely adjusted to this never-going-to-last situation. This system seems to have copied all of the worst aspects of American style Crony Capitalism, while carefully negating any nessecery checks and ballences. It has boomed far too much and for far too long and now it will bust worse then most people can possibly imagine and stay that way for at least 20 years, or this is how it will seem to the Chinese people whatever the figures may say.

[@srinivasraokaruturi9777]

Excellent summary of the situation!! Totally agree, and add to this, you briefly mentioend about the 'lack of children' to support the now middle aged and retiring folks. The double whammy, was the crazy ONE child policy...which not only created a Bulging middle demographics, most importanly, this one child they had, or chose to have, was MALE. so, less females. almost 40:60 ratio of female to male. this imbalance, and add to this the social dynamic change of females choosing to have children at a later age, or not at all...All makings and ingreidients to a Perfect storm lasting next 20-30 yrs!!

[@jeffrice3044]

Yes. Housing is over built by 2 to 2.5x their entire population. Trade (imports/exports) are way down and this will exacerbate more as the US (the west) re-shores manufacturing to North America and their final leg of their economy is internal consumption. People without jobs, no savings due to using RE purchases to save, and crashing population demographics this has nowhere to go but down. China will be lucky to be a coherent nation state by the end of this decade. Xi and central government stimulus are stop gap measures slowing the inevitable. The smart money isn't investing there anymore, look at the drop off of capital investment. There will be some short term highlights like BYD, etc. but medium to long ter, it's all down hill. China is the CCP, the CCP is now Xi and his cult of personality. Xi is not going to relinquish power.

[@world-war-3]

There are two things that I don't think have been clearly mentioned. 1. China is a feudalistic state that prioritizes the grand plans of the emperor, and the economy is subordinate to those plans. This is why China got into its current mess. 2. The US stock market will probably lose $25trillion within the next year/ year and a half. China is in a mess and when the gigantic bubble in the US bursts, China is going to feel a whole lot more serious pain. This will be amplified by the Chinese (and global) debt situation. There is no getting out of the current crisis within the next five years.

[@obi-wankenobi5332]

after chyna collapse this guys gonna tell the same story, that's everything is fine 😃

[@banana-st1fq]

China 2023 electricity consumption up 5% while the US negative

[@TomTomicMic]

US stock 30 Trillion USD above China's with a "quarter" of the people!?!

[@junkscience6397]

LOL. Sure...

[@amunra5330]

You have never been to China have you? Why dont you visit? China now has a 144 hour via policy. Go to Shanghai. @@junkscience6397

[@GeoScorpion]

From 2022 to 2023, China had a 6.7% increase from 8,640TwH to 9220TwH. The USA declined 1% from 4,044 TwH to 4,014 TwH. By itself, the numbers are utterly meaningless. A hot Summer or Cold Winter would increase consumption. Catching up on past-due post-Covid orders might jack up the numbers. Having to reroute electricity transmission because of a plethora of natural disasters such as typhoons and local officials opening dams, thus accidentally knocking over transmission line towers may show up as a consumption due to energy loss. 😉😘 Show me Q1-4 numbers from 2023 and compare them to Q1 2024 and then we can talk. You will start to see things tanking in Q4 2023 and tank even more in the J, F, M of this year.

[@RSokol-oy1rb]

To have someone with such poor command of English give the officially sanctioned talk speaks volumes as a signal about the need for clarification, but who could you ask?

[@hygogc1685]

Everyone knows it is already started😅 u guys should talk about when it will end? U guys r so behind