[최종현학술원 특별강연] 조지 프리드먼 George Friedman - "The Next 50 Years"

[@MA-dw2yl]

박인국 원장님의 개회식 포인트 중 최종현 SK회장님의 인재육성 노력에 대한 부분이 특히 감명 깊습니다. 우리나라가 개도국일 때 이미 인재육성 투자를 하셨군요!

[@user-sl1gx5zs2u]

매우 잘 들었습니다 미래 잘 준비해 보겠습니다 안정적이고 현실감 있게요 감사합니다 건강하시고 행복하세요

[@sakwon8199]

잘 들었습니다. 강연과 강연 organization에 감사합니다.

[@mytube650]

🙏 thanks for posting 🙏

[@fataltiger]

Directly to 15:00

[@winstonbarquez3373]

Geopolitics 101. I love it!

[@fightefx]

The Questions of the Professor are very good. Thank you for the interesting video.

[@paulsylu]

very shit

[@hammo974]

무척 흥미롭게 잘 봤습니다.

[@nickko4042]

underwhelming, if not downright disappointing. Surely a man of his reputation, so welcomed by the institute, must have a more substantial analysis than few lines of geopolitical truisms and watered-down predictions. But to be fair, he had a major time constraint.

[@Dave-jv3th]

Where is this summit located?

[@theknight4317]

it is probably Korean.

[@asadfami7623]

South Korea.

[@be4unvme]

that dry ass applause for george lmao

[@tommyodonovan3883]

*"The man who speaks the truth is hated above all others"* -Plato

[@mesa9724]

A chinese will always refuse to see the truth even if it means their doom.

[@user-qj1lg7mq8w]

대박 이런 명강의를 유튜브에서 보다니 프리드먼의 책을 향후 100년 후를 정독했는데 지금 러시아 사태 예측은 정확히 맞았네요 하지만 미국 엘리트들과 서유럽 엘리트층들의 동아시아 지역 역사 깊이가 너무 부족한 부분이 프리드먼의 중국에 대한 인식이 깔려 있습니다 작금의 시대는 1894년 2차산업혁명 (전기.기계대량생산 시대 기관총 시대) 시기 청일전쟁으로 한반도 삼국 (고구려.백제.신라) 이후 처음으로 동아시아 패권이 일본으로 향했고 이후 2010년까지 120년간 일본이 동아시아 패권국으로서 g2 지위를 차지했지만 이후 중국의 급성장으로 작금의 동아시아 패권이 일본에서 중국으로 넘어 가는 과도기적 상황이기에 세계는 숨죽여 중국의 대만 침공 여부를 주시하는 것입니다 즉 프리드먼과 같은 미국 엘리트층들은 과거에도 현재에도 중국에 대해서 오판하고 있는게 문제이죠 (개인적으로 프리드먼을 존경 마다하지 않지만) 즉 작금의 유럽에서의 전쟁과 향후 중국이 대만을 침공함으로서의 동아시아 전쟁은 G7 패권의 세력이 약해졌기 때문에 발생하고 있는 힘의 균열의 모습인 것입니다. 중국 공산당 레닌주의와 일본 군국주의 정부가 지속 되는 한 대한민국의 미래는 현재로선 장미빛으로 보기 어렵기 때문에 프리드먼의 예측대로 2030년 이내까지 나라의 생존을 위해 통일 대한민국으로 나아가야 합니다 이를 위해서 미국과 중국과 이것이냐 저것이냐의 협상을 추진해야 할 것입니다 통일이 되지 않으면 프리드먼의 예측대로 인구절벽시기에 중국 공산당 레닌주의 속국이 될지도 모르기 때문입니다 통일 대한민국은 2050년 세계 3~4위 경제 대국으로 우뚝서 어느 초강대국도 함부로 넘볼수 없는 나라로 만들어야 후손의 미래가 밝습니다

[@mesa9724]

What a load of nonsense.

[@jjohn3133]

George remember, everything is going to be alright.

[@artsseriouschannel]

04-23-2021. This lecture was given prior to the US 2020 Presidential election. My guess is early Summer 2020.

[@awuma]

George Friedman begins at 15:01

[@arsadams]

As a European myself, i watched with lot´s of atention Dr Friedman´s points towards Europe´s fate while we do all recognize that all arguments made by him are well established, there´s a point that has escaped from his analysis, and that´s having to do with what new generations feel about European project, nationalism indeed exist in our continent, but the interesting think is that younger Europeans consider themselves primarily Europeans and secondly whatever their nationality might be, that´s because they travel freely ,establish relations, work , study in other countries plus a significant percentage is able to communicate easily in more than four languages,younger Europeans are quite educated sophisticated and see the future of their native land linked entirely into European project, we do know that in a world scene no European country alone can raise a loud enough voice inside a theater composed by actors as USA, China, India, Russia,Japan, Brazil, Indonesia,Mexico and so on....together we are a giant.....alone we are just a bunch of countries, at the end is not the only prediction in which Dr Friedman has failed....so far, as the one made for China some years ago, does not corresponds with today´s reality.Do we Europeans disagree one with other? of course we do,but we do not and especially the younger ones think of raising walls or going to war....... to give you an example : as you know during iiww almost all European families have suffered by some other European army, and while this is true for older generations to us younger such an incident represents a tragic moment in our common history, who in some strange way has contribute to the peace and thrive of Europe....yes we do not always agree with EU decisions, and that´s because we want Europe to mature and to act as a single entity......we are quite overconnected over here.....in every aspect: family,friends,work,studies,travel.....and so on, European project can´t be stopped because is moved by Europeans themselves.....Dr Friedman could not be more inaccurate....

[@hannyman925]

your peace and prosperity has been paid for by our military.. I know you done want us there but you also don't want to pay for your defense. Europe must get it's debt straightened out in order to move forward.

[@lorenzogiorgioni9001]

Very cool propaganda.. This crysis showed you that all is fine and dandy when things go well. The nation state, national identity is paramount.. Btw, europe is to be dominated by france if you read between the lines. I don't want to be assimilated into french culture, they enslave and colonise, look at francafrique today. You live in a fantasy world my man, one in which we destroy our own identity for the hope of peace, not even peace itself..

[@williamkline7922]

I think that nationalism or in the EUs case supranationalism, is still very young meaning it hasn’t had that feeling seriously tested. And what tests have occurred only reinforce the nation state as the primary actor. Friedman is not wrong about the threat that the economic structure of the EU poses to the prospect of stability. And I don’t think that the younger people who are Europeans will think that way when they are unemployed and the EU being a major cause, and the ones that do will not be making the decisions.

[@kkunleashed7991]

Aro, I dont know where in Europe you are from (I'm guessing Germany), but Europeans do not see themselves as Europeans first. That is an absolute lie. Friedman is right, that the EU is nothing more than a monetary union. Its true, the Political classes across the EU are trying to turn europe in to this, this is their dream of a european empire. But it wont work. You simply cannot wipe out these countries culture/identities and replace it with a plastic parliament in Brussels. Because as soon as real crisis hits, history has shown it will break apart and countries will revert back to their national identities..

[@arsadams]

@@kkunleashed7991Sir I bet you don't really know European reality nowdays, apparently you are an American so let me explain you some basic things about this corner of the world. We don't live in 1930's anymore, people is very interconnected nowdays means that someone can be a German who lives in Italy and works for a Czech company while his clients are mainly Spanish,on personal level his spouse is Hungarian and one of their kids study in Sweden, this is our reality...so under the spectrum of such reality Mr Friedman has totally fail to interpret the ongoing dynamics that shape the future of this continent, I don't claim that aspects of Mr Friedman lack analytical value, i just claim that Mr Friedman choose to see Europe from a distant widow of the past, that indeed contains several traumas as for Europeans and himself together. Such traumatic experiences could possibly make it difficult to believe that a new order shall emerge, but yes we are interconnected now to a high degree and there's no return to a past where national states acted solely for their interests without taking in account the concerns of others. I assure you that the huge majority of Europeans see a future only through this on going process of EU. To your information European parliament is not an institution made of paper, as European laws have more weight than local ones, in terms of judiciary authority European court is the highest level of justice. Europe had show a remarkable resistance during the Euro crisis of last decade, Europe didn't dissolved nor the Euro lost its price, the fact that Euro continues to be world's strongest currency or if you are familiar with how investors calling it : The stable money....at the end it doesn't mean that we Europeans we aren't proud of our own particular nationality, it means that we know that only together we can turn our lives into something better, we have to show to the world a path to follow that it contains dignity, freedom, equality as it's frame, something different from the ongoing models of pervert liberalism that condemn entire societies in impoverished shantytowns.

[@sirpamariannesinimaa7624]

Today we have Apple, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Facebook Media Power in the US. -- Black Rock, Vanguard, State Street, Fidelity......are rulling us.

[@christopherramos5690]

George friedman and Peter zeihan are the reason why i can sleep safe and sound at night.

[@dragonfly1929]

They are paid to lie!The truth is not what they claim it is!

[@user-rx2jh8td4i]

나온 교수들이 한국을 위해 한국 중심으로 질문을 안 하고 중국 입장에서 중국을 위한 공격을 질문이랍시고 하는 구나. 조지 프리드먼은 미국인이니 미국 중심으로 말 하는 것이 당연하지만 저기 서울대 교수라는 사람들은 왜 정체성이 중국으로 기울었는가?

[@sagaanhara]

Потому что Корея торгует с Китаем. И когда происходит торговая война китая и сша, то корейцы поподают в трудное положение. Вам приходится делать выбор который вы не хотите делать

[@ryujilwin3163]

respect to goerge👍

[@user-un6nd3ip9o]

3줄요약해주실분

[@muricafy6798]

-미국은 지정학적으로 무적이다.(태평양 대서양을 관리해서 국제 무역 시스템 유지 가능한 나라는 미국뿐이니까) -중국은 패권국가 코스플레이와 피해자 코스플레이(미국이 때린적 없는데 때린다고 투덜거림)를 둘다 하는 신기한 국가다. -한국은 미국하고의 동맹을 유지한다면 지금 같이 계속 살거 같다 (근데 북한이 붕괘 해서 통일하면... 힘들꺼니까 그건 준비하는게 좋을지 않을까?준비 안하고 있지?라는 뉴앙스를 풍김)

[@jameskellenberger8740]

Gf helps put reality check on everything

[@jameshan9369]

영어가 안되는게 아쉽다 ㅜㅜㅜㅜ

[@namugomu7981]

아니 세계적 석학을 모셔놓고 짜장국 걱정을 대신해주고 있으니...앞으로 일본이 떠오르면 한국은 지정학적으로 어떻게 해야하는지? 중국의 변화가 일본에 어떤 영향을 주고 우리는 어떻게 해야하는지? 북한과의 관계는 어떻게 변화되고 2030년 안에 통일이 된다는데 아직도 유효한지? 그럼 한국의 미래는 어떻게 될지? 진지하게 물어볼게 한두개가 아닌데.. 질문을 보면서 왜 이런 질문을 할까라는 생각이 드는건 왜 일까요..

[@user-yq5jq4fd7w]

동감

[@muricafy6798]

근데 그 질문을 담백하게 답하시는거 보는거도 재미있었죠. 소프트파워는 하드파워 없는 사람들이나 쓰는거라고 등

[@user-rx2jh8td4i]

온통 중국을 위한 질문, 그것도 칼을 품은 질문 뿐... 한국을 위한 질문과 의견 교환이 없어요. 저런 사람들이 서울대 교수라니 ㅡ.ㅡ

[@rankingworld5409]

왜냐하면 SK.. 종중 사대정부에서 가장 좌빨 스러운 기업이잖아요..한국에 소위 교수라는 인간들중에 극좌들 많이있습니다 하는 얘기 들어보면 정말 꼴통들 많은 것 같아요..나는 왜 SK가 왜 조지프리드먼을 불러서 이런 강연을 했을까가 더 궁금하네요..

[@user-ow1cj4yf7x]

16:00

[@awuma]

1:28:45 "Poland is one...": George must be assuming that Poland will become more authoritarian and disciplined. It is becoming more authoritarian, but economically and in management it is far from being disciplined, and politically it is very divided, unless a charismatic new leader comes up the middle and can integrate enough of the traditional "Somewheres" with the urban liberal "Anywheres" to form a political majority. That leader may be Szymon Hołownia, a Catholic liberal (with a fighter pilot wife...), although only a tiny minority of the institutional Polish Church is liberal and sympathetic to Pope Francis, and by extension to Hołownia. However, a Spanish/Irish-like collapse of Church power is quite likely, which may lead to political change also.

[@dragonfly1929]

You must understand..Fridmann is a Hungarian Jew..everything he says,is a wishful thinking..SO TAKE GEORGE FRIDMANN..WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

[@sklee7071]

통일은 가족 승계가 되는 북한이 언재 갑자기 망하게 될지 모르는 데, 그런 때가 되면 남한이 많은 돈을 들여 독일처럼 할수 밖에 없다는 거네요.

[@pax8866]

b. ~ #12. 어떻게 분열. 시킬 것인가? - 0) 조지 프리드먼 초기 논문 (1994.) 에, '일본과의 전쟁' 을 얘기하기로. 기존 제가 쓴 글에는 오류. 가 있는 것 같습니다. (못찾음.) 1) 일본이 미국을 직접 공격한 유일한 나라. 라고. (일본을 지속적으로 경계한다.) 2) 그래서 일단, '한국을 필요로 한다' 라는 문구에는 일본 견제. 가 맞다고 보입니다. (2010, 2011.) 3) 또한, 중국. 에 관하여는 편견. 을 지니고 있구요. (인종 차별, 민족적 차별.) 한편, 몰-이해. 입니다. 4) 헤겔 시대 정도, 유럽에서 중국에 관한 관심이 컸었는데. 그것은 중국이 세계의 gdp 1/3 가량을 생산. 했었기 때문으로 알고 있습니다. 5) 그런데, 2010, 2011. 즈음의 저작. 에는 ('중국. 은 과거에도 못살았었고, 미래에도 가난할 것이다' 라고 얘기하고 있습니다.)(몰-이해. - 2류.) 6) 또 하나의 편견. 은 "총-균-쇠" 얘기. 를 모르거나, 견해. 에 반응이 없다는 점. 7) 제럴드 다이아몬드. 는 이렇게 얘기했었습니다. '반도와 대륙의 차이점. 반도는 남의 지배를 못 견뎌하고, (단조로운 해안선의) 대륙은 획일성이 강조된다. 따라서 반도는 독자적인 국가를 유지하고 살았던 기간이 더 많았고, 대륙은 지배받는 기간이 더 길었다'. 8) 프리드먼은 중국. 의 통일 규모가 정점. 에 이르렀고, 곧 해체될 것으로 보았습니다. (2010. 에서 10 년. 안에.) 9) 놓친 것은, 대륙에 있는 한나라 한족의 유전자 특성을 잘못 짚은 것. 10) 비교적 온건하며, 순종적인 민족. 이라는 점. 11) 지속성. 을 가능하게 한다. 12) 나쁘게 말하자면, '불-합리함을 무던히도 견디는 민족. 이다'. (꺼꾸로 말하자면, 지도층이 알아서 합리성을 추구한다.) 13) 미국의 횡포. 견뎌내는 것을 보자면, 무던함. 은 맞다고 보입니다. 14) 2020. 두가지 저작. 을 보자면, 중국에 대한 언급이 완화되거나 누락되어 있습니다. (자신이 기존에 가졌던 편견을 약화시키는 글쓰기.)(오히려 저의 예민한 반응이 미국의 전략에 힌트를 제공했는지 모르겠습니다.)/ #13. 다른 곳에서 이미 썼었던 바, 생락하겠음. (두 차례.)/ #14. 어떤 조직에 구성원이 있다. 자신이 top 의 위치. 에 지속. 적으로 있기 위해서는 어떻게 해야 할까? - 0) 새로 들어와 머리를 쳐들 만한 직원들, 싹수가 보이기 전에 팍팍 밟아 주어야 한다. 는 것이 조지 프리드먼. 의 미국 제국주의 항구화. 를 위한 기본 전략. 입니다. 1) 멕시코. 가 미국 1인당 gdp 의 최하 1/10 수준. 인데. 2) 1차 대전. 때 멕시코 황제가 독일의 동맹 제의를 거부했었다는 점. (기존에 알고 있던 사항.) 3) 몇 십 년 후, 미국을 침락할 수 있는 나라는 지정학적으로 멕시코. 라고 합니다./ #15. 한국. 은? - 불합리하게 이용당하는 것을 거부해야 합니다./ #16. 윤-정권. 에 하나 지적합니다. - 0) '조직 장악력', 생경한 개념을 지속적으로 사용하는데. (언론에.) 1) 가장 중요한 것은, 조직이 해야 할 일을 제대로 처리. 하는 것입니다. 2) 장악력. 은 개인 신상. 에 관한 문제. 입니다. (상명하복. 이라면, 낙하산이 그런 실력. 이 되어야 지요.) 3) 제대로 처리하기 위해서는 기존 구성원들의 관점. 을 파악하는 것이 중요할 것이구요. 4) 이들의 의견을 듣고, 당면 과제. 를 인식해야 겠지요. 5) 장악력. 이라는 것은 조직을 경직되게 할 뿐. 6) top 의 위치에 있게 해줄지 모르나, 비-효율의 썩어빠진 system 이 되기 쉬울 것입니다. ('까라면 까야지' 하는.) 7) 기본적인 가닥. 부터 잘못되었습니다./ #17. 유대인. (헝가리 계 유대인. 으로서 미국인. 이 된.) 임을 부정하는 발언도 하더군요. - 0) 중동. 에 균형자. 역할. 을 찾기 위해서, 이란. 과 손 잡아야 한다. 는 얘기도 합니다. 1) 이스라엘. 과 거리를 둠. 으로, 향후 이스라엘이 열심히 노력하지 아니하면. 우호적인 국가 분류. 에서 제외될 수도 있다는 위기감. 을 주어야 한다는. 2) 독일. 을 견제하기 위해서 소련. 과 손 잡은 때 처럼. (미국 제국주의. 의 이익을 위해서 일시적으로.) 3) 소련. 을 견제하기 위해서, 중공. 과 손 잡았던 것 처럼. 4) 사우디. 역시 경각심을 갖게 될 것이라는. (이란. 이라는 대안. 이 있다.)(p 200. 이란. 을 키워 사우디. 에게 불이익을 주어야 한다.)

[@deepestsleeep]

@@pax8866 3년이 지난 지금 중국이 몰락하는데 날개가 없네요. 중국은 완벽히 폭망하고 있고 고속도로 망해가고 있죠. 박사님 말이 맞아요. 중국 패망.

[@mwinyimwenyi]

How socially harmonious is the US? It's tearing itself apart politically and racially. Racial tension can be felt in the air.

[@alexlee2276]

The panelists are very weak in all means! They have asked only about China and less about Korea all the time. I wonder how they were been choose to participate in this important debate. Professor George Fridman was expecting receive questions about Korean geopolitical situation and implication of this in the Korea peninsula future, but they have asked only naive questions. Totally lost of time and money! Only disappointing.

[@colemeeker908]

How does the US go into decline? internal division and decay. If we approach the existential crisis of climate change and ecological collapse like we have approached dealing with each other the last 2,000 years then civilization and the planet it lives on is screwed.

[@alexandernunne4923]

I always wonder if America could be internally fractured as well if would stay divided.

[@Seastallion]

"Could", yes, as the Civil War proved. However, with 14,000 miles of internal and connected navigable waterways (never mind roads and rail), the US is naturally geographically connected in ways most nations aren't. You could literally hop in a boat in West Virginia and go visit Tennessee, North Dakota, or even Oklahoma without leaving the boat even once. Literally no other nation has that natural advantage for travel and commerce. The US didn't get around to actual roads for quite a long time because of that fact.

[@MichaelDeMersLA]

it would have to be a barge with draft of less than 6-ft, traveling at 9 knots. Waiting in line for days at the locks.

[@joanscott1611]

The polite sidewalk intraoperatively arrange because discovery externally thank for a abundant turnover. ethereal, hospitable rooster

[@MichaelDeMersLA]

What

[@milantrajkovic6104]

this man is paid handsomely to speak nonsense.

[@e734127803]

Lots of untruth here, ever sentence is debatable

[@LoptukqrickL11]

Lol okay, random guy in the comments.

[@SportsIncorporated]

Go get a totally different view of China when you hear the facts/truth.

[@TrendyStone]

?

[@danielhamilton3827]

George Friedman's reputation does not dovetail with the impression of being a speaker of shifty and big talk w/out substance . I do not know why he has been so much highly praised over the years. Well, The defense may be like he just fell short only in this presentation, not prepared and fatigued due to long distance travel. He does not know much about China as an intellectual he should exhibit some measure of understanding and insights about US-China dyadic ups and downs over the years to promote his theory of US-China future. And I am so much dumbfounded by the remarks that the reelected Trump will be much weaker one as the U.S. president. When US House and Senate are won by Republicans and Trump has gained the upper hand in influencing prominent figures within the Republican Party since 2016, Trump will hold more power. This is my take on US domestic changes. George Friedman's prediction, though in passing, on US is so wrong-headed on its head.

[@juanma4598]

@Daniel I agree with you 100%

[@itsimminent]

@Maverick I wish Americans felt the same patriotic fervor that you write with... however, I think your impressions of the US are too clouded by distance and bias to be anywhere close to accurate. China is getting closer, as always, to challenging the US... but you’re still so far away that you all cannot even accurately gauge what that gap is and where that difference can be observed. Have you spent much time in the US? Or is your experience with this country hypothetical and academic in nature?

[@nathanjudd5307]

@PDM USA needs to finish its civil war first. And the dollar will collapse soon and the loss of economic power that comes with that. You can't fund a military when your currency rapidly devalues. Americans and Europeans are used to the government taking care of them. Ww2 was funded by the American middle class... now they are needing handouts. You gave a candidate who obviously wants to stack the supreme court (which became politicised decades ago) and want to get rid of the electoral college. You have lost your founding narrative and values. And are trying desperately to replace it with something... some good feel good story about we are all the same no matter what colour. Meanwhile you kill eachother on the streets. You need to accept that your standard of living is going to greatly reduce. And that it wad your liberalism and lack of conservatism that caused it.

[@nathanjudd5307]

George is nervous... unlike in his previous speeches... because he knows the assumptions underlying his words are now being shown to be questionable.

[@tam12025]

@Maverick well only 10% of those military vessel are deep ocean going capabilities tho, bear in mind that the Chinese electronic systems are still relay on foreign sources... such as Israeli's chips. it is still afterall, a paper tiger. with no force projection on the chinese side, i'm not so worry about it's aggression towards the external countries.

[@Athenaikos]

Turkey naval power? LOL! What a bunch of baloney! I think George needs to be hospitalized. He is in Korea selling the idea that Japan will be again a hegemon in the area. George, you lost it, buddy! Go back to Texas and get in the business of animal husbandry.

[@streetrider2487]

hahaha and you are?

[@ShaggyPWN]

Turkey has the most powerful and capable military of Europe and the Middle East. That's just a simple fact. Not to mention that to their southwest is the failed state of Greece. To their southeast is the failed state of Syria. The Turks can more or less do as they please in their neighborhood. Their only possible opponent is the EU. But they're spending their time legislating on the legal definition of bread... So yeah, they won't do a damn thing to oppose any hostile actions from Turkey. Not to mention that France is the only nation in the EU that maintains a functional expeditionary military. Japan possess the worlds second most powerful navy and very well trained and capable ground forces. The only thing holding their military back is their constitutions pacifism clause. But that's nothing that can't be solved with some legislation. Which they have been considering for some years now. Look at that! I wrote a coherent response without sinking to insults. Remove the childishness from your comment and what is left? Not a damn thing. You may as well have rolled your head across your keyboard.

[@muricafy6798]

@@streetrider2487 he's most likely a Greek person. They usually flip their shit when people praise Turkey.

[@streetrider2487]

@@muricafy6798 Didnt Greece bring down the entire financial system of europe in 2009? hahahaha

[@protestantwarrior1411]

I agree with you, Japan being hegemonic is laughable since their population is pacifist and wouldn't want to go to fight. Turkey being a super power is not realistic, only a middle power at best.