Will Lagos be the first city to 100 million?

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Demographers believe that African cities will be some of the largest in the world by 2100, and soon after Lagos, Nigeria could cross the 100 million people barrier. Why Lagos? And what will it be like?
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Produced by Dave Amos and the fine folks at Nebula Studios.
Written by Dave Amos and Hannah Woolsey
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[@stickynorth]

Lagos is a city that deserves WAY more attention on it both in terms of its problems but also how it intends to solve it. This definitely deserves a second part which talks about the Lagos Metro Network, Nigerian Higher speed rail, EKO Atlantic island, the cities attempt at creating a Dubai-like Waterfront district for the Super-rich... Or people building affordable climate-proof floating architecture for the fisherman cultures who still live along the coast...

[@ehoops31]

This would be really great!!!

[@jjoohhhnn]

Why have I not heard of this before? I hear more about Brunei and Morocco than all subsaharan African nations combined and it's bs. South Africa, Rwanda and congo(s) being the exception, but Rwanda and congo are only in the context of the us vs China power struggle for gold in BRICS and cobalt for batteries.

[@rizkyadiyanto7922]

​@@jjoohhhnndont depend on mainstream media to get your info.

[@Homer-OJ-Simpson]

Great response. I have seen a little content on Nigeria and Lagos and I do think their situation can be very interesting topic, especially for a channel like this. What are the plans for Lago, what SHOULD it do, what CAN it do?

[@xXKyledkXx]

It really challenges the perception that Africa is huts in the Serengeti

[@Mcfunface]

Lagos is actually now only projected to be 88 million inhabitants by 2100. Back in 2015 they thought Lagos would double it's 18 million population by 2030, but now it seems to be several million short of reaching that.

[@thecomment9489]

88 million? Ah even that is very huge figure.

[@highlander8402]

Even then it probably won't even reach 88 million. This figure is for Nigeria as a whole but in 2019 the UN was projecting that Nigeria's population would grow to 733 million by the 2100, yet in 2022 these estimates were revised down to 546 million mostly due to Nigeria's falling fertilty rate. With the fertility rate continuing to fall it is doubtful if Nigeria's population will cross 500 million and by extension Lagos is unlikely to get anywhere near 88 million by the end of the century.

[@thecaveofthedead]

Exactly. Population projections are _continually_ being revised downwards. Nigeria's high fertility rate is now an anomaly in Africa generally and we'll likely see it decline rapidly precisely _because_ the country is urbanising so rapidly.@@highlander8402

[@artimist0315]

@@highlander8402 that and also Nigeria will be one of the hardest hit location on earth if climate change continues to happen

[@ishathakor]

i think estimates are still using somewhat of an inflated fertility rate which might not actually keep up going forward. either way what IS clear is that lagos is one of the cities that is growing really quickly right now

[@andrewselvo7878]

It's difficult for me to believe that projections all the way into 2100 will necessary pan out. My guess is that as African states continue to stablize politically, that faster economic growth will ensue, with the correlated fall in birth rates. This process is already occuring in places like Kenya , where birth rates (while still high globally) have fallen noticeably over the last few decades, from 6.7 in 1989 to 3.4 in 2022. This is not even including if in the future more African governments start rolling out successful family planning programs to lower birth rates. Overall, I think Africa's future is optimistic. Which Lagos, for all its shortcoming, I believe embodies. They even recently opened their first metro system!

[@fmac6441]

Urbanization itself, if not directly causes, is at least correlated with a decrease in birth rates.

[@f.g.9466]

If the Lagos Metro line is to serve as an example, then I'm not very optimistic that Nigeria will get the infrastructure it needs to provide economical growth and sustain population growth.

[@longiusaescius2537]

@fmac6441 also 2 parents working

[@eldios831]

You are right....here in Kenya right now only rich and irresponsible people have more than 2 kids

[@tssj8827]

UN long term projections have proven accurate historically, but we'll have to wait and see

[@JordanPeace]

The thing these projections always seem to forget is that as a country’s population grows, new cities spring up and absorb a significant amount of the population growth. It is much more likely that there will be a hundred new cities across Nigeria that reach 1 million population (which right now would be either small villages/towns or even completely rural areas) than it is that a single city will absorb all of that population growth. Shenzhen didn’t even really exist 50 years ago and now is one of the largest cities in the world, and any projection populations from then probably would’ve just placed those people moving to Hong Kong or Guangzhou instead. There are already several cities in Nigeria with well over a million people that could easily absorb enough of that growth on their own to keep Lagos well below 100 million, and that will likely end up being a better option for many people than enough of them moving to Lagos that it completely cripples their infrastructure.

[@artimist0315]

What those projections also tend to forget is that population growth is massively susceptible to a lot of factors. Especially considering that Lagos is located in what will probably be the hardest hit country in the next 100 in the context of climate change, considering that this city will ever reach a population and urbanisation this high is very optimistic

[@Whatneeds2bsaid]

>New cities That’s possible, but China’s new cities are largely the product of top-down government planning. Nigeria could take that same approach (Eko Atlantic and Centenary City), but I think it’s equally valid that they could go a down a similar path of Japan, France, the UK or others where a large city predominates the country. Large cities with sufficient infrastructure seems to be globally desirable. With more flexible zoning laws, even New York and LA would be much bigger cities than they already are.

[@covfefe1787]

@@Whatneeds2bsaid no one is saying Lagos wont be the largest city in Nigeria that there will be a bunch of new cities created with government funding and even Population caps imposed on the city like what happened in Jakarta Indonesia.

[@ligametis]

That is rare. Most people move to the biggest one or to a couple biggest ones. Smaller cities are dying in 21st century, at least in Europe.

[@okene]

​@@ligametisyes, especially in eastern Europe

[@lifeontheland8972]

Just as a fun fact, it's actually pronounced "Lay-goss". A girl from Lagos told me this a while back because I was saying it wrong.

[@highlander8402]

Watching him mispronounce Lagos the whole video was grating lol

[@thatotherted3555]

And Niamey is roughly "nya-MAY", not the weird way he said it

[@alexejvornoskov6580]

And she actually prononces it wrong.😂 Its actually portugese word, so his pronanciation is closer to it, although still far away, but still nearer then butchered prononciation by english that came long time after.

[@jalabi99]

@@alexejvornoskov6580 the Nigerian lady is pronouncing the name of her country's former capital the correct way. Yes, the word is Portuguese, meaning "lagoon", and yes, there is a port city in Portugal which also bears the name. Lagos, Portugal is pronounced closer to "lah-gosh" but Lagos, Nigeria is pronounced "lay-GOSS" or "lay-GOES". As any student of west African history knows, the Portuguese were some of the earliest Europeans to visit the region, and they built pretty strong royal ties with the great kingdom of Benin, which still exists in modern-day Nigeria, as far back as the middle 1600s. Source: I lived in Lagos, Nigeria for a couple of years in the middle 2010s. A vibrant, chaotic but still beautiful city, and I would go back there in a heartbeat.

[@jack2453]

I had to laugh at the way he pronounced Lagos in anglophone Nigeria as a foreign word, but Niamey in francophone Niger as though it was English.

[@GojiMet86]

Lagos recently opened the first line (the Blue Line) of its new Metro system. They have plans for more mass transit lines, although so far, the rollout has been.......interesting (IMHO, rushed and ugly). I really hope it doesn't end up like the failed Abuja Light Rail (also Nigerian), opened in 2018, where they spent about $800+ million only to end up running three diesel-hauled coaches, for 3 trips a day, pre-COVID. And the system hasn't reopened since 2020. But I don't like a couple signs for Lagos. For starters, in January 2023, the Blue Line was technically inaugurated by the President......but the electric, third rail train was actually hauled by a diesel engine for that first, and only, ride. Looked more like just Photo-ops for politicians, because the line didn't actually open to the public until September 2023. Even fully opened, the system STILL lacked power, so they ran only 12 trips a day (YES, A DAY! Not in one rush hour...A DAY!) using the diesel engine until quite recently, when they finally hooked up a power plant to the train. They are supposedly running 76 trains a day now. I can't remember the last time a modern, electric metro system opened and they still lacked energy to power it. The Red Line commuter train is going to be just as interesting, because Lagos acquired a couple of old Amtrak Talgo trains for it. Not sure how that's gonna work out.

[@Jablicek]

There are many infrastructural issues in African countries that rarely get mentioned, access to electricity is only one of them. Even a country as supposedly well run as South Africa has regular load shedding, houses and businesses that can afford it have their own generators.

[@rizkyadiyanto7922]

​@@Jablicekindonesia that consists of thousands of islands do better thsn them.

[@whaleguy]

Yeah, the entire Nigerian power generation capacity is just around 4000 MW. The grid itself is old and can only handle around 3500 MW. And truly, the metros in Abuja and Lagos were botched so badly. The Lagos governor even stated it was unfair for Lagos to be forced to finance their metro themselves without any help from the central government. And it is truly insane that Nigeria is full of so many abandoned projects, the steel plant being the biggest. There's also the Calabar monorail that actually ran for a while and was shut down, and the Rivers monorail, where they built some of the track and stations, and left it there. The Lagos governor has said that they will open and run the Red line, and construction is mostly complete. Also given the heavy commuter rush in Lagos, one can hope that the Lagos metro will make money and they will continue running it.

[@tundebakare6887]

​@@whaleguyexactly

[@babihutan5949]

@@rizkyadiyanto7922 no they dont

[@orlandoheavener8932]

Highly doubt the infrastructure can maintain such a high population.

[@ineedaname4450]

Certainly in the short-term, but it's difficult to imagine that after 100+ years the infrastructure would be in the same state it is now. Progress is by no means linear, but life is definitely getting better.

[@SomeTuberr]

We’ll have to wait till 2121 I guess

[@shirtpants4203]

@@ineedaname4450most African infrastructure is already near 100 years old. It’s been 60 years since colonialism and the same infrastructure built by white people is still in use, maintained by Chinese companies who now own much of Africa. Look at the current infrastructure in China if you want to see the future

[@fmac6441]

The metropolitan region of Lagos currently has a population of 16 million people with an infrastructure that is much more precarious than an Medium-sized American city.

[@Fluffy_production]

Has that ever been a problem for africa

[@barryrobbins7694]

Logos is on track to become the largest city in the world, but conditions can change quickly. A few decades ago, Nigeria was on the brink of the African equivalent of the Irish Potato Famine when a virus attacked their staple crop - cassava.

[@AZTECKTHEBIGBOSS]

And that's history repeating itself right there. Not sure why us humans gotta have bad shit happen to ourselves only for the almost exact same thing happens approximately 50 decades later. As if we unlearned everything. I guess human are too stubborn to even take anything into consideration.

[@barryrobbins7694]

@@AZTECKTHEBIGBOSS At least in this case, the things that scientists learned prior to the virus attacking cassava were used to create a solution.

[@artimist0315]

Also climate change exist, and Nigeria is at risk of having outright lethal conditions more than 100 days a year by 2100

[@DragonwolfoftheSands]

This take requires a deep lack of knowledge about both Nigerian and Irish history

[@barryrobbins7694]

@@DragonwolfoftheSands “Swiss agronomist and entomologist Dr Hans R. Herren is one of the world’s leading experts on biological pest control and sustainable agriculture. When a new pest threatened the cassava root in Africa, he designed and implemented a successful biological control programme that has been credited with saving millions of lives. Later, Herren was the co-chair of the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD), endorsed by 59 countries.”

[@ethancomrov1006]

Concerning birth rates, if city migration continues, birth rates will decline as technology increases which leads to a lower mortality rate. When there's a lower mortality rate people have less children so I think that's something to keep in mind for the growth of cities in Africa like Lagos

[@leandersearle5094]

That's the pattern we've seen *when coupled with education*. Schools are a little easier to provide than sewers and electricity, but if the country is already struggling, what it can provide may not keep pace with what it needs to provide.

[@zoradelaney9412]

It would be nice to see a video about the growing suburbanization seen in Nigeria, Ghana, and increasingly in West Africa in general. You mentioned the Lekki Port, but not the growing suburbanization on the Lekki Peninsula and elsewhere in Lagos State. Given that stroads are popping up in the West African region, what can elites do NOW to avoid/reduce the car-centricism seen in North America?

[@George-zd7mu]

Well the video is about Nigeria

[@AlphaGeekgirl]

@@George-zd7mu I'm guessing your friends call you Captain Obvious 🤦‍♂

[@whaleguy]

Car centrism is already a feature of Abuja, the capital of Nigeria. Why? Because when Nigeria decided to shift its capital to a new, more central location, they asked an American consortium to design it. The new city was founded based around cars with no transit of any kind. As a result, Abuja is entirely car centric and choking on traffic. They did build a metro, but it was executed badly, wildly unprofitable, and shutdown during the pandemic to never reopen. Lagos isn't much better. It's only now that they have put in a metro line in Lagos.

[@thastayapongsak4422]

Elites won't do shit because those same elites are the one who will live in those America style car centric hellscape.

[@immyammy7185]

Ghana why bring in Ghana here. You know you cannot stop your envy.

[@MaixPeriyon]

I don’t wanna be that guy but we Nigerians pronounce it as Lay-gos. Overall a very good video and it’s a shame my first comment is this one.

[@Pafemanti]

I don't think it's asking too much to get the actual name of the subject city correct. I paused the video right away when I heard it said that way. It shows a lack of connection to the place, and mildly puts me off. I am more tolerant of "lower down" mistakes, say for example one of the neighborhoods in Lagos is mispronounced, ok, but the name of the actual city? C'mon, you gotta get that right.

[@jalabi99]

Please, be that guy! I cringe every time I watch _Captain America: Civil War_ because they spent the entire movie mispronouncing the city's name there too! 😑

[@okok-uc8hi]

Don’t be afraid to be that guy

[@AndalusianLuis]

Well Nigerians pronounce it wrong then because in Portuguese it would be pronounced LAH-gos which means lakes.

[@JohnDoe-hl1fd]

nobody cares

[@ruqqayahosizemete2708]

I don't believe this projection, as a teacher in Lagos, many of my students over the years want one kid or no kid in future. Unless the 100 million will be migrants from outside Nigeria 🇳🇬

[@whatever1661]

Lagos seems a very challenging but interesting place. Would you recommend a food fine like myself to visit it?

[@deji6542]

You can but do your research

[@ruqqayahosizemete2708]

@@whatever1661 100% sir I will be glad to be your tour guide sir. If you like to feel the humidity come around April to November. If you want to feel harmattan wind come around December to February. You can visit other states too if you want.

[@ruqqayahosizemete2708]

@@whatever1661 it also offers good food. I will list them for you later

[@Danorous]

​@@whatever1661You would always wanna come back

[@barryrobbins7694]

Africa has so much potential. My hope is that it can avoid developmental problems created in other parts of the world and that they have robust internally developed institutions and governments that the population deserves.

[@R_V_]

It's been a century that any development in Africa, whether economic, institutional, cultural or other, has been devoured by demographics.

[@barryrobbins7694]

@@R_V_ What is specifically meant by “devoured by demographics”?

[@Zero_Contradictions]

Unfortunately, that's not going to happen. There are several FAQs pages that you can read about on my website as to why this is the case. Each FAQs page covers a different topic.

[@barryrobbins7694]

@@Zero_Contradictions The reality is that Africa already has developmental problems. It is one thing to see the realities of the arduous tasks ahead, but saying something will not happen is self defeating. It is better to fail at attaining the highest goal, than to settle for mediocrity. My apologies for sounding like an inspirational poster.😀

[@tundebakare6887]

Africa is the future

[@joey8033]

Nigerian here and I love how accurate this video is, you're right about urban populations sending money to rural populations even in my early 20s I have some younger cousins living in smaller towns I buy lunch every now and then. I also love how you showed the duality of Lagos, a place where the richest and poorest exist, cities like Abuja would have overtaken Lagos but it was intentionally overpriced from the get go to discourage migration too, but Lagos' real issue is a political one it does not have that clear, concise and intentional government it needs in the 21 century it's still run by "backwards" thinking oligarchs, most people wouldn't live in Lagos if they had a choice too. And one last thing it's pronounced "LAY-gos", nice video I really enjoyed it! ❤️🇳🇬

[@eddie9559]

It's not his first video involving Lagos, he's been corrected on the pronunciation. For whatever reason it seems he doesn't care.

[@joey8033]

@@eddie9559 he's american and i am not even surprised lol

[@zigismundus]

The estimation for the population of Nigeria, and thus Lagos, has been already changed. Interesting video still.

[@Mcfunface]

Yep, birthrates in urban environments plummet once the city gets large enough, and without the same amount of immigration from the countryside replacing that growth, you get a stabilized plateau at some point

[@H1776-b5j]

What is the new estimate ?

[@estebancespedes3515]

Can't wait to see the video on slum upgrading! As someone from Latin America, it would be nice to see how that process looks and any success stories

[@rexx9496]

I think this has happened to some degree in Mumbai.

[@Game_Hero]

Montréal is a great exemple.

[@longiusaescius2537]

@Game_Hero Montreal had slums???

[@Game_Hero]

@@longiusaescius2537 Ohh, absolutely. Located on the eastern half of the island. They were systematically inhabited by the french-speaking Québécois working for the english-speaking Canadians and Americans owning the factories and living in the fancy self-segregated opulant towns of the West Island like Westmount, they were dirty, crammed to the pack, very poor, with large families having to share appartments and kids playing in mud. Saint-Henri was the most famous of them, immortalized by Québécois singer Raymond Lévesques. Jean Drapeau in the 60s paid people of slums like these to inhabit better houses in rebuilt neighbourhoods.

[@longiusaescius2537]

@@Game_Hero wild, in America at least no one remembers them and a Quebec friend never mentioned it

[@zenfer]

I would love a video on slum upgrading. Also, inculde US slums of the 1900-1950s and where Italians and Irish moved when the slums were cleared.

[@thecaveofthedead]

So there are a couple of things that need to be mentioned. Firstly, population estimates are continually being revised _downwards_. Because fertility rates frequently experience sudden collapses rather than steady declines. Nigeria is an oddball in Africa in that it has a major urban culture and incredibly sophisticated elites, but still has very high fertility. In much of Africa, fertility rates are now very similar to European countries and population growth has slowed dramatically in a fairly short time. It seems very likely that the same will happen in Nigeria as smaller families become a route to prosperity rather than large families being insurance against rural economic insecurity. Secondly, it's important to mention _why_ Lagos is the only major population centre comparatively. Nigeria like many colonies was the victim of a completely extractive form of colonialism that built all infrastructure so that the British occupiers could funnel labour and raw materials to a port so that it could then be moved around Britain's empire. The building of new ports and population centres has been delayed by the chaos that surrounded the declining terms of trade for rural countries in the '70s along with the propping up by major world powers of dictators to continue serving as proxy-colonial administrators. Essentially, Nigeria's difficult struggle for democracy will mean that its trajectory will change - not just in slowing population growth, but also in prioritisation of resource use. We see this with neighbouring Ghana - Africa's first independent nation - which has begun to greatly increase its standard of living thanks to decades of stable democracy.

[@malawianna]

I love your videos! but I wish you would ask a resident or regional expert how to pronounce city names. It’s giving VANcouver.

[@sanderdeboer6034]

The Netherlands proofs that rural areas CAN produce enormous amounts of wealths. Dutch farmers are the most productive in the world, and most of them are millionaires (mostly on paper). (4 of 10 Dutch farmers are millionaires) There are 50,000 farming business in the Netherlands with around 200,000 Farmers (if you count anyone working there) who produce over 10 percent of GDP. (More than 100 Billion euros a year). But this is mostly done by automation and technology, allowing farmers to be very productive.

[@fernbedek6302]

I do have to wonder if there were any city projections from 1923 about what they thought the largest city in 2000 would be. And how wildly wrong many guesses no doubt were. (I do expect Lagos and other African cities to become global urban centres in the future, but some specifics to the projections raise eyebrows.)

[@perfectallycromulent]

I know that in the 80s, there were projections that Mexico City would become the biggest city in the world and just keep growing and growing too, under a similar claim that the city was very dominant in a country with a high population growth rate.

[@epicbirdy42069]

They were close but not close enough

[@rfwhyte]

Just because a city has a lot of people living in it, doesn't necessarily mean the city will be "Influential" or "Powerful." Lagos having 100 million people, 50%-90% of whom are living in relative poverty, would still have nowhere near the economic or cultural influence of far richer, yet smaller cities in other countries.

[@ikesu_kily]

Thank you for the video. Just a small comment, at 6:16 the shot is unfortunately not Lagos, but Accra in Ghana (Ghana taxis with yellow parts + it's written on right sign "Oxford street, Osu, Accra").

[@Uty-yo9np]

Lagos is growing fast. For Lagos to get to 100m residents by year 2120, It would likely become more contiguous than it is as it will like fuse with Cotonu in Benin Republic and may also sprawl beyond Sagamu in Ogun State and perhaps spread as far as Ibadan which is another really big Nigerian city especially by landmass of the built up area. However, aggressive and decisive densification of present day Lagos should make the city grow more efficiently without sprawling the way it does currently. This would entail developing lots of mass housing tower blocks like we presently see in Sao Paulo and Chongqing and other high density mega cities. But some other cities around Nigeria are also growing rapidly. They are just not talked about to much. Besides Abuja, which in my opinion is the fastest growing city in Nigeria. Other fast growing large cities include Port Harcourt, Ibadan, Kano, Kaduna, Benin city. Then you have other mid sized cities that are also growing into surrounding villages which now constitute slums.

[@jonny5alive123]

How do you make this entire video without finding out how to correctly say the cities name...

[@ycshittu5412]

He sat in a chair in the US and did an entire video about lagos. I'm sure the dude is even scared to go anywhere near lagos.

[@leekelly9639]

I willingly watch a video about Lagos when it’s not mispronounced..

[@Daskoldbrau]

I think it’s strange that shenzhen was left off the pearl river delta map considering it’s the largest city in the region by far and more economically significant than any of the cities that were mentioned.

[@PleasedTown]

it's so weird to see Shenzhen always being left out whenever people talk about the Pearl River Delta or just the big cities in China... even the map including Macau was weird because even though it has a reputation that's literally the smallest city in the region I think Westeners are somehow unaware of Shenzhen's existence as a major financial and economical hub that is almost on par to Hong Kong... but it's also probably because the city's prominence is rather new as compared to HK or Guangzhou

[@BlownMacTruck]

It’s because everyone generalizes the area into “Hong Kong” not because people don’t realize it exists. The only people that say that are the Shenzhen folks suffering from “look at us!!” syndrome, of which there are a ton of. We get it. You’re insecure. Moving on.

[@PleasedTown]

@@BlownMacTruck It's precisely because everyone calls that area as just Hong Kong that people don't actually know Shenzhen exists. It's similar to how I, a Singaporean, wasn't aware San Jose, California existed because of San Francisco even though SJ has a higher population. Shenzhen has actually risen in prominence though, and I think it's different as for the case of like SJ/SF because there is like a proper "international" border between the two, but it's also *kind of* the same country, so that probably builds up a lot of the confusion. After all the metropolitan area there is called the Pearl River Delta and not like, Hong Kong metropolitan area, for a reason, probably because there isn't exactly one city that is the most prominent (even when we include Guangzhou)

[@vincentgrinn2665]

id actually really like to see a video on slum upgrading, its such a difficult thing to manage in a way that isnt just horrible

[@vladtheimpalerofd1rtypajee316]

Finally, a video about African cities. Please make videos about the planning problems of poor countries.

[@generous_coconut]

The difference between Tokyo, Shanghai and Delhi, Lagos, Kinshasa is that Tokyo and Shanghai are actual functioning cities while Delhi, Lagos and Kinshasa are biggest slums (it’ll made worse with rapid population growth without any means to accommodate them).

[@tundebakare6887]

Biggest slum how?

[@generous_coconut]

⁠@@tundebakare6887Maybe not enough welfare services/resources to accommodate new arrivals, lack of sewage systems, increasing crime, pollution, no middle class (wealth inequality). Plus, a big informal economy that has some jobs not being stable enough, and sometimes not enough jobs to go around. Kigali in Rwanda (although not that crazy “over 10 million population” large city) is far better city that should represent the Black sub-Saharan African (excluding North Africa) identity and potential progress.

[@tundebakare6887]

@@generous_coconut is Kigali 10 million

[@tundebakare6887]

@@generous_coconut all this youve mentioned are peculiar to America and Europe too not only in Asia and Africa. Infact there are more gunshot in New York than any place in the world so base on your write-up you can deduce that network is a slum as well

[@generous_coconut]

@@tundebakare6887 I don’t know I could say the same thing about some European cities having a chronic gun problem, but these ghetto European cities do exist. I agree. Parts of Paris, embarrassingly, is run down, dirty and dangerous. For America, it’s uniquely an American problem with gun violence (especially in Chicago, Baltimore and Oakland). Detroit itself is a ghetto, run down city. America is not a developed country. It’s a developing country (sometimes even considered a third world country).

[@szpunar85]

1st, a lot of people in one place doesn't make the place so influencial, so I'm affraid Dar es Salaam even in 2100 won't be nowhere near the league of NY, London, Tokyo or Bejing. 2nd - most of the population projections are based on the current fertility rates, the thing is that poor countries catch up with the more developed ones very quickly given enough peace time, that also includes children per woman, in other words if Africa keeps developing, the fertility rates will go down to ~2 quicker than we think. Also India has more people than China now. One last thing, you can only fit certain amount of people in a square km (or a mile, whatever), after that you have to expand city borders. And you might get a city like Chongqing which is bigger than Czech Republic by area and has 32 million people. There are also Netherlands with population density higher than said Chongqing, some may argue that the whole country is a big one city. So with 100 mln would it still be a city?

[@gabingston3430]

Don't Chongqing's city boundaries contain a lot of rural areas?

[@rickleopold2087]

Yes, it is pronounced "Laygoss". I was there in 1987, so I winced every time you mispronounced it. We visited several African cities back then, including Nairobi, Kenya, and Accra, Ghana. The people in Lagos seemed the most desperate and anxious of the places we visited.

[@DeyvsonMoutinhoCaliman]

Cities are a hell to live.

[@CK-wv7gf]

Ok we need to see the slum upgrading video! Sounds very interesting and it’s def a question a lot of people ask about

[@Just-Human]

The stench in that city is horrendous.

[@francoisperrot4890]

The first agglomeration and not "city" which will probably be 100 M Inhabitants will probably be the Pearl River Delta around Guangzhou and Shenzhen which built-up area is is now about 66 M inhabitants, without HK not conurbated yet. It's already much bigger than Tokyo. Second is Shanghai-Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou built-up area with 41,4 M inhabitants as of 2020 census. In Nigeria itself, you forgot to talk about Kano 5,1M inhabitants, Ibadan 3,7M as of 2022 census and the 18 others Million people built-up areas in the country. But the first problem to adress in Africa is the enormous fertility rates which are incompatible with bettering living standards. Unfortunately, most of african countries doesn't do anything about it, creating more problems especially in cities unable to house them and immigration totally out of control outside of Africa.

[@rioluna6058]

climate change will destroy the pearl delta area... maybe norhtern china will fair better but the south wont grow because of climate disasters

[@MagicMiro]

Well if the Nigerians move from the rural area to the cities , their fertility rate would start going down as people that live in towns prefer to have less children.

[@GojiraFan25]

Yes but that also assumes birth rates remain the same through 2100. Nigeria is getting closer to stabilizing and the increased urbanization of Lagos and Nigeria as a whole will undoubtedly curb birth rates

[@azRomanEmpire1]

I went to work in Lagos. I have never found this level of energy anywhere else. People are always moving for something

[@fuzzylon]

Thanks for another great video ! I'd be interested in another video that expores the problems that come with such huge cities. 100 million is around 10 x times the size of cities that used to be considered large cities. Do these megacities need new approaches to city planning and how utilities, transport and even city administration are provided? I'm thinking also of other videos I've seen of how 'down town' can get to be so expensive that the people needed to enable a city to function simply can't afford to live there - or even live in commuting distance any more.

[@HarvestStore]

I appreciate you and thank you for making content.

[@ghost21501]

Sounds like a nightmare. I'm glad I live in a small city, near a large city.

[@itemtest1]

100 million people in 1 city is absolutely crazy. That's probably unsustainable because it requires perfectly planned infrastructure 🤔🤔

[@grahamcolquhoun2295]

Never knew any of this thank you

[@perfectallycromulent]

I remember back in the 1980s, Mexico City was "destined" to become the largest city the world had every seen, probably by about now. that did not happen. not even close.

[@DADDYG-Ryder]

There are 34 million people in delhi, and it's already horrendous, can't imagine 100 million people in one city. Oh my god, we r fkin dead here

[@EdrEnterprises]

As a Brazilian I think Nigeria will be a huge leading power and I hope Brazil and Nigeria can work further to distribute the wealth and power a little bit better

[@etienne8110]

As soon as oil money runs out nigeria will become a dump. Inner troubles and climate change will be the last nails on the coffin for this poorly managed country. It will never become a stable leading regionnal country.

[@aryanbakshi5806]

Do you feel Brasilia and sau paulo have similar issues?

[@rioluna6058]

climate change will destroy both of those countries as well as mine. the writing is on the wall... canada and russia will be okey but the droughts that are coming in this century will make sure that brasil will never be a developed country ... but dont feelbad yo are not alone most countries will perished.

[@EdrEnterprises]

@@aryanbakshi5806 wdym by similar issues?

[@aryanbakshi5806]

@@EdrEnterprises you know being such a big country yet wealth is mainly in these two cities

[@gabingston3430]

0:48 That downtown seems strangely American looking to me. It looks like something you'd see in Florida.

[@patrickayooladokun]

That is Kampala in Uganda

[@gabingston3430]

@@patrickayooladokun Are you from Uganda?

[@noahmyg]

not sure why cities like Shenzhen and Dongguan are left out at 0:56 when they're definitely part of the pearl river delta region. the entire built up area you can see in the satellite photo is part of the region actually

[@patrickayooladokun]

That is because it not based on facts. This nonsense is being used to drown some economies around the world. It is a shame what some humans are capable of just to save his own.

[@Qclips35]

As a Nigeria I'll tell you Lagos will not reach that projection, many Nigerians like me are beginning to dislike that place, secondly newer cities are absorbing those that supposed to migrate to Lagos. If tribalism and islamophobia (especially the later) gradually die down migration to the north will increase.

[@originaldelta]

Tribalism isn't going anywhere its actually getting worse. Kwara and Benue natives are already losing land to Muslim herdsmen from the North...its only a matter of time.

[@gabingston3430]

@@originaldelta I don't think it's out of the question for Nigeria to split along religious lines. Then again, Africa is by no means my strong suit in terms of knowledge, so take it with at least a few grains of salt.

[@artimist0315]

What makes that fact really unlikely is that Lagos, and Nigeria as a whole is situated in one of the places that will be hit the hardest by global warming, to the point where it will be very unlikely that the climatic conditions could support humans, and especially not human settlements this dense and urbanised in 100 years.

[@jyde50]

that is how they said coronavirus will afffect africa the most. every projection from west is aways negative, till reality kicks in

[@jyde50]

That is exactly what they said about them during the corona virus, if the projection is coming from the west expect all the negative things until reality kicks in and it affect the west the most.

[@AfricanMaverick]

Why you keep spreading this same lie?

[@PeteS_1994]

Lots of Lagosians are also leaving Lagos I think as most of my cousins have left Lagos.

[@railroadforest30]

The problem is also Nigeria will be stripped of natural resources if population growth continues as it is

[@HarJBeRw]

I think Kinshasa might have just passed Lagos as the largest city in africa actually (tbf kinshasa, lagos and cairo are all fairly equivalent population wise). It is also always present in those largest city predictions for the end of the century

[@Urbanhandyman]

What a paradise it will be.

[@beasley1232]

Slum*

[@George-zd7mu]

be ready to be disappointed, don't underestimate the nigerian people intelligence, watch them get the politics right first of all and see wonders@@beasley1232

[@ButteryBao]

Lots of caveats here. Is the assumption the birth rate will remain 5.1 for the next 76 years? Or are we assuming that it tapers off to

[@VbHy-pj2fl]

Funfact: Lagos is the largest urbanized city in Nigeria but the smallest by landmass As the largerst city in Nigeria by landmass Borno is 15 times the size of Lagos

[@ndwind]

I think this topic eventually opens a question what we can call a single city. If it takes 'ages' for a resident to travel from one part of the urban area to another, because they are so remote and lack efficient transportation, can it really be a de-facto single city?

[@jrt2792]

I've been to Lagos last year, it's so crowded. There's more people in that megacity than my home state of Ohio.

[@whatever1661]

does it offer good food?

[@jrt2792]

@@whatever1661 there's plenty of options for dining in Lagos. You could have food from street vendors to restaurants, you name it.

[@胡舒爽]

1:07 failed to mention Shenzhen(17M) and attributed the growth to Macau (680k) is crazily amateur.

[@DanSolowastaken]

I also think the 100 Million people number is a little high. We are projecting the current life and labor trends of today's Lagos on a city 3 generations down the line. With work from home being the default for about half the population, many people priced out of Lagos will live in one of the other young cities. Mixed use development will make many more cities throughout the nation draw on a more mature population pyramid. Lastly much of Nigeria will adopt G8 fertility rates long before then. It will certainly be a Tokyo, London, Hon Kong sized megalopolis. However it will be the youngest one about their size.

[@duckpotat9818]

Apart from pearl river delta, Delhi NCR and Mumbai - Pune region night also approach 100 million.

[@Indian_Rajput]

Delhi NCR is combination of 3 Cities New Delhi, Gurgaon & Noida

[@jaybee4577]

A new UN forecast for Nigeria’s population is 350 million people by 2100. This came down from over 700 million projections a decade ago. Nigeria birthrate is dropping faster than predicted.

[@italomatheus8615]

350 million kkkkk look at ur fertility data

[@jaybee4577]

@@italomatheus8615our fertility rate have gone down from 5.7 to 4.6 in 5 years.

[@andresvalencia7983]

The same thing that happens in Lima, Peru but on a slightly different scale. Centralism on the part of the state, internal migration, concentration of all powers in one place, etc.

[@ztemaxgaming8620]

These trends always die down as a country developers nation wide, many expected Asia to reach a very higher population yet the only thing that's happening is the population is declining, and even for the countries like India which might on first glimpse seem exploding but under that their population is already on replacement level So no, we won't ever see earth having 10-15 billion people, it's only gonna die down

[@pampeabody]

"lay-gos"

[@DaniMrtini]

How many tiles do they have around them that can be used for agriculture? In my Civ save, I had 8 tiles for farming and 1 for cow, 1 for fish and 1 for pig. I wasn't able to go beyond 30 population. I did get nuked by Montezuma and Ghandi though, so maybe that played a part.

[@George-zd7mu]

nigeria is incredibly fertile

[@pongop]

Interesting and awesome video! Africa is the future!

[@shivendraupadhyay1565]

I think these projections are based on current growth rate. We need to understand that population growth slows down as the society advances, and people switch from working in industries to working in Service sector. Like a few years ago it was projected that Mumbai in India would have over 30million people by 2020, but that didn't end up happening instead the growth rate slowed, it still high, but not as high as it was in 2011, or Tokyo was projected to have around 50million by 2020, this projected before the Japanese Economic Slowdown. SO growth rate depends on a lot of stuff. And as society progress people would want less children, because cost of living would increase and its expensive to have as many children as people in Nigeria and rest of Africa have right now. And more cities might spring up, like Shenzhen, 3rd largest city in China, which is also in Pearl river delta. Or Like Lahore in Pakistan, which grew slowed the growth of Karachi.

[@jmanius1]

THE NAME OF THE CITY MAN. Interesting video otherwise tho

[@pineapplesareyummy6352]

About the Pearl Delta Region: how did Macau get mentioned (it is tiny with only 600,000 people and known only for its gambling) but not Shenzhen (15,000,000 people, where much of southern China's hi-tech is located) or Dongguan (9,000,000) or the other cities like Foshan, Zhongshan, Zhuhai. The whole region also isn't 85 million, maybe closer to the 60 million range, since the whole province of Guangdong is about 125 million. Still a lot. Lagos region would be almost double the PRD if it gets to 100 million. At that, it'd be so big it wouldn't be one city but a cluster of cities with multiple independent cores and new cities/districts like the PRD.

[@conorgilles81]

That settles it. I'm moving to Lagos.

[@schopen-hauer]

sounds good to me too, living next to 100 million africans starving.

[@JustTheWorst-ct4hk]

6:10 400 billion is crazy

[@diegoyuiop]

Fertility rates have been going down for many many decades all over the world, Nigeria included. Keep that in mind! Also, I think we'll have to fundamentally change how retirement system work in so many countries because eventually there won't be enough potential immigrants anymore...

[@prathameshdharme975]

The mumbai pune belt and delhi ncr are also gargantuan urban conglomerations

[@CABOOSEBOB]

I don’t think it’ll become the largest. Logistic growth curves rely on carrying capacity, and its infrastructure just can’t sustain nearly that many

[@Decrepit_biker]

It's pronounced LAY-GOS. I know someone from Lagos and can 100% confirm.

[@Kiwanuka1]

Thanks for lowkey lighting Kampala

[@toomuchgarden6898]

A video on uplifting slums would be great!

[@kiewies]

The most populated cities in 2100 will be far inland and on Asia or Africa. The coasts and their older infrastructure just won't be able to keep up once the seas start coming up.

[@baha3alshamari152]

Raising sea level won't get that big actually It will only touch some neighborhoods in the costs but the cities will be minimally affected

[@SquareJerHertz]

I would love to see a video from you about slums. They're fascinating things and have dynamics that don't seem visible from the surface.

[@thandisilec835]

You left Cairo in Egypt off as one of the biggest mega cities in Africa…I believe it’s number 2 to Lagos in terms of large populations

[@zxenon_]

Great work. But it's not La-gos, Portugal. It's Lay-gos, Nigeria

[@croatia0728]

I think people may be dissuaded from moving specifically to Lagos in the future if the living conditions don’t improve quickly. I think people who would want to move to a city like Lagos may choose other nearby cities like Sagamu, Abeokuta, Ibadan, or Oyo instead. Maybe this region of southwest Nigeria could develop similarly to the Pearl River Delta (with HK, Guagzhou, Shenzhen, Macau, etc) or the Yangtze River Delta (with Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Ningbo, etc).

[@MENSA.lady2]

If they stay in Lagos I don't care. If they try to migrate to the UK we have a problem.

[@weksauce]

It's lay-gos, like Legos, not lagos; it's not Spanish.

[@buurmeisje]

True, it's not Spanish, it's Portuguese, which still means it's lah-goes

[@weksauce]

@@buurmeisje LOL, NO, it's Niglish, not Portuguese. Lagos, Portugal is a different place.

[@buurmeisje]

@@weksauce Lagos was named by the Portuguese after the town in south Portugal called Lagos

[@weksauce]

@@buurmeisje Yes, but it's not the portuguese town of Lagos. It's the Nigerian city of Legos. They don't even speak Portugues. They speak English.

[@buurmeisje]

@@weksauce So?

[@elizabethdavis1696]

Yes please do a whole video on slum upgrading your viewers would love that!!!!!!!!!!

[@Sayid_Itatsuyoshi]

correction on the pearl river delta part, u mentioned Hong Kong, Macau and Canton but u missed the largest of them: Shenzhen with a population of more than 20 million

[@saratreetravels]

Definitely would watch a video about slum upgrading!

[@Matrix609z]

Africa is the Future 🔥🔥🔥🔥💪🏿

[@DanoFSmith-yc9tg]

I lived in the Greater Toronto Area for 30 years, its 4 to 8 million, depending on how many suburb city centers you include, and it's a nightmare, I never want to go back. It's so congested, way too many people. I couldn't imagine living in a city bigger. It would be a complete disaster on a daily basis.

[@pongop]

Nebula should invite Mr. Beat!

[@shifty220]

Lay-gos abeg 😂😭

[@adamperdue3178]

I'm very skeptical of the idea that Nigeria will be so massively populated in such a short amount of time. First of all, the country would have to undergo a drastic agricultural revolution/modernization to be able to sustain that many people at the levels that they're at now, except such a modernization would necessitate massive economic growth. Said economic growth would make its population desire a higher standard of living, ergo raising food consumption. Just sounds like a localized Malthusian catastrophe waiting to happen. Nigeria has a lot of arable land (~34m hectares) but compare it to India or China with 156.1m and 119.5m hectares respectively, and it just seems implausible for them to support such a population even approaching half of those giants. Countries with similar amounts of arable land include Ukraine and Pakistan, which in Ukraine's case makes plenty of food excess, and in Pakistan's case can support hundreds of millions of people similarly to where Nigeria is at today. Except more realistically as food output becomes strained (or economic growth materializes), the fertility rate will drastically lower.

[@pineapplesareyummy6352]

Projections for Nigeria has varied. I have seen as high as 750 million plus by 2100. But recently, the UN has also moved those projections back closer to 500 million. If it's 500 million, then Nigeria can definitely support it with the arable land cited. 500 million is about one-third of India and China, and Nigeria's 34 million hectares would be close to one-third of China's, and at a lower latitude. Another point of comparison is with Bangladesh. Nigeria's landmass is 6 times bigger, though the north is arid. 500 million people would be 3 times the current population of Bangladesh. There is no problem with food in any of Bangladesh, India and China. All of three of them actually grow more than enough food to feed their populations, and even export food.

[@XY-rh3if]

Returning for me was a complete shock and a dissapointment compared with how I left it 3 decades ago. Other than having a well developed and advanced banking system, the place made big regression rather than progression. Listed below are the shameful and disgraceful situations of the country 1. An absolute state of hands down approach to law enforcement, whereby the country is a completely lawless and a disorderly society. No one follows the rule of law and law enforcement is almost non existent. Motorists and motorcyclists drive on the wrong direction of both major and minor ways and it's implicitly legal by the Nigerian standard of road safety. Running red light is the norm. It's not unusual to see cars driving on pedestrian sidewalks and law enforcement have no problem with this disgraceful and uncivil behavior. When driving on a major freeway, expect to see a car headed in a head on collision course with your vehicle 2. Civility, basic etiquette and orderliness is completely non existent. Expect your neighbors to have absolute disregard for your right to a peaceful dwelling. It's not unusual for people to be loud anytime of the day, including during late hours and early mornings because traditionally, Nigerians lack so much basic etiquette that they don't believe that they're obligated to respect neighbor's right to a peaceful dwelling. The worst part is that church services are conducted at both day and at midnight to early hours of the morning. Thereby disturbing the peace in the name of worshipping God. 3. Too many unpaved roads for an oil rich nation. Too many out of school kids, infact the most number in the entire Africa. This is owing to the level of corruption in the country where the schools are 80% underfunded and people can't even make a decent wage to afford the substandard education system in existence. Curruption is so rampant, the type not seen in most parts of the world, except maybe in places like India and Pakistan. The country is so currupt that it doesn't function like a normal society and bribery and corruption is the order of the day. Western Imperialists oil corporations have a part to play in the country's state of perceived poverty because of colution with public officials to defraud the country of its oil revenues on a regular basis. 4. To compare Nigeria with the UAE and Singapore, The UAE is an oil rich nation as well and the level of progress that's been made to date is reflected in their oil wealth. However, the same can't be said about Nigeria. It appears like a poor nation with no natural resources of any kind. Singapore has no natural resources but it has made more progress in infrastructural development than so called oil rich Nigeria has achieved In summary, Nigeria is a completely "Failed State", a disorderly society, a lawless and an uncivil society, where no one follows the rule of law. Not even law enforcement agents follow the rule of law, which means chaos and freedom to do whatever you like is the bestway to describe Nigeria. You can violate other people's right to peaceful dwelling, infringe on public property by illegally building on public property until the authorities feel like it's time to crackdown on encroachment of public property. For most Nigerians this is all normal, but for those coming from a normal or society orderly, where law and order reigns supreme, this is an absolute shock and a disgrace. Just call the place a leaderless society

[@jumbojips7983]

Horrific hell-hole urban megacity

[@sandercohen5543]

The reason lagos is such a big and successful city is because it is close to the historical trade center of Benin, which dominated maritime trade for most of west-african history. Lagos is located next to the greater urban area of benin, in a place where the terrain is much more suited for large-scale industrial complexes, in an area otherwise dominated by a coastal landscape of historically hard-to-develop terrain, such as jungles, rainforests and floodplains. This is how the city has been able to outgrow the historical city of benin, which was comparable to major european cities in the 16th century.

[@powerhouse5050]

Too much ignorance from commentators

[@cartograp]

I would love to see you do a video on slums!

[@juelz713]

I would love to see a video on how to fix slums

[@leliondemer]

While Nigeria has the highest birthrates, global birthrates have been trending down and lower birthrates are correlated with industrialization. I don't think the population will get that hight because people will simply not have babies.

[@baha3alshamari152]

Nigeria doesn't have the highest birth rate and is not even in the top 10 countries with the highest birth rates Their northern neighbor Niger is the number 1 tho

[@Zero_Contradictions]

The real reason why the population will never get that high is that overpopulation will cause mass die off. The Earth simply doesn't have enough resources to support that many people.

[@user-xsn5ozskwg]

Hopefully efforts to spread the benefits that come with urbanisation work, though it's also gonna take some economic reform away from trying to model the US if it's going to actually have benefits and not set up for even worse wealth inequality that will be noticeable once quality of life improvements slow.

[@Feon83]

Mega cities are not a indication of good economy. Most of times it's the exact opposite. It's a sign of a very centralized state than offen times means corraption and injustice and a sign of bad ecomy in most of the country. That's why people are moving in these cities. Because there are no jobs and opportunities anywhere else in there countries. The fact that most of these cities are located in Africa, India and south Asia says a lot.