Climate change: Effects and solutions (Calleva Centre Seminar)

Speakers: Jennifer Castle, Xiyu Jiao, Menghan Yuan, Jonas Kurle, and Susana Campos Martins
Dr Castle will lead a seminar on her new Centre-funded project on the effects of and solutions to climate change (see callevacentre..... In her presentation, she will be joined by several Oxford postdocs and DPhil students.
"Human-induced climate change is the biggest threat to humanity, leading to an escalation of extreme weather events, loss of land from rising sea levels and loss of biodiversity, resulting in increased loss of life and livelihoods, along with rising inequality, migration, and social unrest. The threat is stark, documented by the IPCC, and our project addresses this through rigorous statistical analysis to model outcomes, produce forecasts and propose policy interventions to achieve the stated goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
How can decision makers be confident that actions they undertake to tackle climate change will benefit the climate and put economies on a path to net zero? The answer is in evidence-based policy, so it is crucial the evidence base is meticulous, accurate and statistically sound. Our project will develop climate applications based on powerful and innovative empirical modelling techniques. It will also deliver policy analysis to show how to get to net zero in a fair and equitable way.
Climate science has established a vast body of knowledge about the processes and causal links in the Earth’s climate system. The climate of planet Earth depends on the energy balance between incoming radiation from the Sun and re-radiation from the planet. But greenhouse gas emissions are mainly due to economic activity, so the econometric methods used to model human behaviour naturally play a role in modelling climate change outcomes and implications.
The key outcomes anticipated from this project are: a) more robust climate models based on cutting-edge econometric methods with a focus on policy relevant topics; b) linking empirical feedbacks between greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic processes; c) knowledge exchange between climate scientists and social scientists, bridging the gap by showing the commonalities and differences between the physical and statistical approaches; d) new research showing how net zero can be achieved in a fair and equitable way, proposing policies to focus on stranded workers and their families, addressing issues of poverty as well as stranded assets; and e) direct evidence based analysis of the progress Magdalen College is making towards its stated goal of net zero by 2050.