Cold War II: Niall Ferguson on The Emerging Conflict With China | Uncommon Knowledge

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Hoover Institution

Hoover Institution

Күн бұрын

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@jslberto
@jslberto Жыл бұрын
Put this man in a chair beside Stephen Kotkin and do an interview that has no time limit or set agenda. Just let the conversation go where it goes. Please.
@QuizmasterLaw
@QuizmasterLaw Жыл бұрын
Kotkin is insightful and intelligent, but at least regarding China policy Niall is one-dimensional. Wrong, as often as right.
@themoonman-4
@themoonman-4 Жыл бұрын
They are both answerers
@rbb.828
@rbb.828 Жыл бұрын
Yesssssss. I’d pay to see it!
@JamesFitzgerald
@JamesFitzgerald Жыл бұрын
Yeah, my thoughts exactly of bring Steve Kotkin back on Goodfellows. Make Steve an offer he can't refuse.
@MFJoneser
@MFJoneser Жыл бұрын
@@QuizmasterLaw Maybe. And you’re describing any single person’s possible perspective, by the way
@dasglasperlenspiel10
@dasglasperlenspiel10 Жыл бұрын
Peter Robinson is an unobtrusive but brilliant interviewer. Ferguson was at his best. Uncommon knowledge is a spectacularly good program, if that is not an inappropriate word for a program that merely consists of intelligent discussion about important current issues. I think it is very appropriate.
@jollyroger1009
@jollyroger1009 Жыл бұрын
Niall said it at the end: the US spends more on debt interest payments than it does on defence. And he also said that a superpower that does that has numbered days. The reason this is happening is largely due to a skyrocketing debt situation that is difficult for the US to get out of (save for a sudden wave of technological innovation creating large new industries in the US), rather than a plummeting defence budget necessarily. Britain got into a similar situation after the spending necessary to fight WW1, with WW2 finishing them off economically. The US seems to be on a similar path now, so given that this is the normal route of downfall for great powers, is there really any hope of recovery for the US? While Niall and others offer probably workable ways out of the situation, history shows that these ways out are seldom followed.
@jima3129
@jima3129 Жыл бұрын
GB was out of cash in 1916. We financed the war after that because we did not want to lose what we had already invested. Then we sent 140,000 young men to their deaths, AND we ended up paying Germany's reparations to France. Talk about a bad investment all around.
@schoocg
@schoocg Жыл бұрын
Wish our journalists politicians had 5% of the intellect and historical background as this program brings to light. So well done and enlightening.
@petersipos4728
@petersipos4728 Жыл бұрын
Mr Ferguson forgot a few things. 1. Western democracies are in fact oligarchies. There is no representation for 90% of their citizens. 2. Vaccines was actually a negative example for the US. It pointed to having a lack of democracy. The US was not the first (Sputik was)...and had to strongarm allies buying it (while discrediting Astrazeneca in the same time). 3. He would need to look around his own neighbourhood. Most of UK suburbs are the most miserable ghettos on the planet. Those people don't get to participate in the so called democracy either.
@pliniogoiania
@pliniogoiania Жыл бұрын
Oh, I see you don't really understand democracy. Let me help: 1.Unlike China, democracy can't make 100% of its people undisputedly satisfied with representation. Everything can be disputed over here. 2.Democracy does not produce those beautiful low COVID-19 numbers that China does. Our citizens did die in massive numbers and we actually know about that so we can improve. 3.Unlike China, democracy can't just erase people in ghettos. We don't really expect democracy to be that cool. It is like, when any random underachiever can make up empty claims against it on KZbin, without vanishing. Can't complain about that in China (or about anything at all)
@anthonyandrew6725
@anthonyandrew6725 Жыл бұрын
GTFO of here. That’s total crap.
@ArcherWarhound
@ArcherWarhound Жыл бұрын
In discussing the parallels of Cold War 1 & 2 they also completely neglected to mention the space races. China's space agency is currently out NASA-ing NASA, pour mountains of money and manpower into putting up rocket after rocket bearing spy satellites, explorer satellites, and components for their own space station, while on the US side SpaceX, which is really just pursuing Elon's goals and not US interests, is carrying the whole weight of our race efforts because of graft in the form of continued pay for endlessly extended piddling and tardiness by NASA's traditional partners.
@FiveLiver
@FiveLiver Жыл бұрын
3. He moved to America
@douglasherron7534
@douglasherron7534 Жыл бұрын
While there is some credence in what you say, I think you have forgotten a few things: 1. I agree to a fair extent with your oligarchy point, except, in the Western democracies the ordinary people do (sometimes) have a voice; as has been seen in the UK (through Brexit), the Netherlands (through the collapse of the Rutter government and the push-back against farm closures) and - admittedly to a much lesser extent - the US (through Trump being elected President). 2. While I agree the imposition of the covid vaccinations did point to a lack of democracy, in not only the US but virtually all democracies, the actual point made was about the development of the vaccines - which was a resounding success of Western science over that of China. 3. While there are plenty of miserable places in the UK, I guess you've never actually visited a real 3rd world slum/ghetto area. If you had, you would know you're talking nonsense.
@MrOkadaman28
@MrOkadaman28 Жыл бұрын
Niall Ferguson (like many in the West) simply doesn't get the appeal of China in the global South. It is not about Huawei, Infrastructure or Surveillance - it is about economics. Take Africa as an example, once the Shale Revolution took off in the US, US - Africa trade plummeted (as Petroleum accounted for the bulk of trade between US and Africa). Today, China is by far, Africa's largest trading partner - and you can't compete with trade with foreign aid.
@SammytyLeung
@SammytyLeung Жыл бұрын
Foreign Aids just like a treat to a dog, you will have it if you behaved well. Besides, it creates corruption.
@janstaes2172
@janstaes2172 Жыл бұрын
well said, if you want to look at the interview they did with the leader of the african union. they where absolutely livid about how the west was talking to them. its pushing africa towards china.
@petercollingwood522
@petercollingwood522 Жыл бұрын
No. The appeal of China is to the despots who rule Africa and need the ability to stay in power without those irritating Western concepts like human rights, rule of law etc being condiitons of their aid. Petroleum is only found in meaningful quantiites in a few sub-saharan countries. China provides a quick fix to their problems and they are perfectly happy to pay the price.
@ivancho5854
@ivancho5854 Жыл бұрын
God, where to start? How about this: Good luck trading with China without the US policing the seas.
@張思齊-l8z
@張思齊-l8z Жыл бұрын
Anglo-Saxons never fail to demonize their opponent and try to claim the just cause.
@fowchiiiliedpuppiesdied
@fowchiiiliedpuppiesdied Жыл бұрын
Here’s a thought, why not work on fixing our own mess, before we worry about the enemies beyond our borders? All the real enemies, are within.
@Philip-bk2dm
@Philip-bk2dm Жыл бұрын
Who are the real enemies? Specifics please.
@cricketerfrench7501
@cricketerfrench7501 Жыл бұрын
No they are not
@geocrystal
@geocrystal Жыл бұрын
You are very wise. But historians like Niall and other academics insist that the US needs a "clear external foe" to stay united. May it be a big bad wolf or great white shark.
@mimiginkgo
@mimiginkgo Жыл бұрын
it can be and has to be done this way. war is like surgery best for removing cancers. besides, war can test how bad a shape each player is in and why
@domcizek
@domcizek Жыл бұрын
NICE IDEA, BUT NOT PRACTICAL, CHINA IS NOW THE REAL ENEMY, DO YOU WANT TO BE UNDER COMMUNIST RULE? EVERY WAKING HOUR YOU WILL BE WATCHED BY CAMERAS, WHERE YOU GO, WHAT YOU DO , AND WHO YOU TALK TO, THAT IS NOW HAPPENING IN CHINA IN REAL TIME, , WE NOW HAVE OVER 9 MILLION JOBS GOING BEGGING FOR WORKERS, THAT IS WHY ALL THE BOARDER CROSSERS ARE COMING HERE, TO LIVE AND PROSPER AND BRING BACK LIFE TO ALL THOSE DEAD AND FORGOTTEN COMMUNITIES ALL OVER THE USA, AND YES WE HAVE TO FIX ALL THE PROBLEMS AT THE SAME TIME, BUT BE AWRE, THE DEMOGRFIC PROBLEM IS ALSO IN THE USA, AMERICAN WOMEN ARE NOT HAVING ENOUGH BABIES TO STAFF ALL THE FACTORIES OF THE FUTURE, WHTCH MEANS LOWER SOCIAL SECURITY CHECK AND HIGHER RETIREMENT AGES FOR EVERYONE
@rogerparkhurst5796
@rogerparkhurst5796 Жыл бұрын
We were stronger in the 50’s and 60’s for the same reason China is today, we had a strong manufacturing base and could ramp up in hardware quicker. We also had a good brain trust and a youth/conscription that would support the country’s leadership/direction. Today, we have youth that rightfully questions our leadership’s values and morals/integrity and a military that couldn’t ramp up fast enough.
@jhbkuah
@jhbkuah Жыл бұрын
Hong Kong became a British colony through two wars: the First and Second Opium Wars. The Opium Wars resulted in two treaties, each expanding the size of Britain’s Hong Kong territory. These treaties were followed by a 99-year lease in 1898 that allowed Britain to control even more land - a lease that ran out in 1997. China did not take over HK by force.
@robert8431
@robert8431 Жыл бұрын
One can not expect a dog to change color! It is the nature and purpose of the Hoover Institute!
@dictumfactum7784
@dictumfactum7784 Жыл бұрын
Right,ok china bot
@fozzz-vb5oj
@fozzz-vb5oj Жыл бұрын
Opium
@28119850
@28119850 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for pointing out the correct historical events regarding HK that this colonial-minded guy deliberately revised to fit his narrative that UK was so nice to help protect HK for 99 years and then return HK to China out of good heart. He is so delusional to believe his own bull shxx and as an echo chamber of the west.
@2Hot2
@2Hot2 Жыл бұрын
What's the difference between force and coercion, intimidation, threat of expatriation/abduction for violation for foreign (Red Chinese) laws, etc.?
@vdove605
@vdove605 Жыл бұрын
Mr. Robinson you are excellent at what you do. A real treat to listen to your program! Thank you & your guest, Mr. Ferguson for bringing such an important topic now. Understanding what is happening in the world today is key! Thank you, Thank you! Cheers! 🥂
@ricktasker8248
@ricktasker8248 Жыл бұрын
Niall grew a beard to disguise himself from the Niall guy who popularized the term "Chimerica" to predict the symbiosis of China and America just a few years ago. This current Niall guy now warns us about the coming Cold-war threat. And he does all this while shamelessly maintaining his know-it-all pomposity.
@jozsefnemeth935
@jozsefnemeth935 Жыл бұрын
kzbin.info/www/bejne/fYeUlIx-rcpmo8k In the last five minutes he talks about the dark clouds over Chimerica.
@barryledwith6500
@barryledwith6500 Жыл бұрын
Niall stealing Steve Bannons calls
@micbear9334
@micbear9334 Жыл бұрын
Haha, brilliant. I agree, he's a hack
@ari8135
@ari8135 Жыл бұрын
He has obviously been turned. A turncoat. No objective academic this.
@tomtang8067
@tomtang8067 Жыл бұрын
I totally agree with you. Consider Ferguson, in his white-centric but ludicrously ludicrous book Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World, this Ferguson who constantly blames the non-Western world for starting a second Cold War.
@kennethmarshall306
@kennethmarshall306 Жыл бұрын
There was no conflict except the US fearing that the Chinese economic development model might be more successful
@petercollingwood522
@petercollingwood522 Жыл бұрын
Bunk.
@charliebarton
@charliebarton Жыл бұрын
In comparing the present situation with the Cold War, let’s remember that, during the Cold War, our leaders weren’t corrupt semi-literates, and our debt to GDP ration wasn’t completely unmanageable. How the hell is the US expected to wage some sort of conflict with China when we can’t even get out of our fiscal dead pool during peace time? We’re looking rather British Empire circa 1938. The difference is, in 1938, the British military was paltry compared to Germany, but their economy was immense. Now, the US military is enormous, but it seems we’re on the verge of some sort of economic or debt crisis. The F35 is unaffordable already, wait until the parts cost 2X as much because the dollar’s buying power collapses.
@videre8884
@videre8884 Жыл бұрын
😂😂😂 Politicians are always corrupt and lie........ If something seems different to you today than it used to be, then it has to do with you and not with politics. Politics has always been deceitful, corrupt and an obstacle to real civilization.
@EricFapton
@EricFapton Жыл бұрын
The F-35 will become cheaper over time.
@EricFapton
@EricFapton Жыл бұрын
None of your comment is based on fact except we have debt. There is no indication the economy will collapse.
@jinliu1198
@jinliu1198 Жыл бұрын
An all-out nuclear war would solve all your problems. The congress and the supreme court will be vaporized because they don't have the shelter that the president has. So after the war, there'll be no debt ceiling and the government can do whatever it wants. China is building its nuclear weapons rapidly. It may be on par with US and Russians in one or two decades. I think the possibility that the US president launching a surprise nuclear attack on China in the next 5 years is very real.
@Anthony-jo7up
@Anthony-jo7up Жыл бұрын
China has 3x our debt to GDP.
@waynecarney4519
@waynecarney4519 Жыл бұрын
I really enjoyed this interview. A host who did his research and asked thoughtful questions, and who gave his guest the time to fully answer them. A guest who allowed the host to develop their questions and who addressed the questions asked. I want to see more. I specifically would like to hear a more detailed description of the issue discussed at the end of the interview. Specifically, the mechanics / details involved in playing for time. Regardless, many thanks for this.
@dkstewy
@dkstewy Жыл бұрын
The interviewer just got the Suez canal crisis wrong by one year. It was 1956 not '57.
@michaelwoods4495
@michaelwoods4495 Жыл бұрын
I had thought that Hong Kong was British on a 99-year lease and that China took over when the lease was up. That is, quite legal and in accordance with the original agreement. Have I been mistaken?
@PointduNord
@PointduNord Жыл бұрын
As educated as this man is, he has completely missed the point. America is rapidly collapsing internally. No one even has to fire a single shot.
@kiwigrunt330
@kiwigrunt330 Жыл бұрын
That's because half our population (not only the USA) are functioning as China's useful idiots. Not only China is (neo?) Marxist.
@tonysu8860
@tonysu8860 Жыл бұрын
I thoroughly disagree that America is rapidly collapsing internally. Alexis DeToqueville also saw only chaos and lack of direction in the American democratic experiment. Those who believe in the principles America is founded on believe that the country thrives on progressive liberal individualism where every person is given an opportunity to do something with his life and for himself. There is room for discussion about autocracy, fear and discrimination but no one who believes in America would truly believe in things that bar opportunity and limit the right to vote and self govern.
@willraley1789
@willraley1789 Жыл бұрын
Whatever problems America has, China has far worse. Even if our young people are brainwashed, China doesn't even have young people. America still has people, even if they are vilified, who push intellectual, technological, and business boundaries (Jordan Peterson, Elon Musk). China only develops by stealing technology and ideas from foreigners. Even if America does collapse, which is absolutely not a given, we will still come out on top, because China will probably collapse no matter what, but there are things that we can do to mitigate our future problems.
@nkristianschmidt
@nkristianschmidt Жыл бұрын
subversion is the most important part of a cold war
@grantperkins368
@grantperkins368 Жыл бұрын
The statement mentioned during the interview that went along the lines of "the Chinese have everything and America looks like it's heading toward some sort of civil war" sort of said it all, but was quickly skipped over 🙃 by these exceptionalists😂 , who would probably like to sanction anyone outside the USA who set up a supermarket as well, coz supermarkets are AN AMERICAN INVENTION GODD DAMN IT! 😂
@charliebarton
@charliebarton Жыл бұрын
NIal mentions the Vietnam War and the divisions it created (notice he makes the divisions out to be the problem, not the war) and then Peter mentions George Kennan. I think it’s worth recalling that Kennan was against he Vietnam War, didn’t believe in the domino theory, and certainly didn’t believe in a global communist movement. Also, Kennan was against he expansion of NATO after the Cold War ended. So, yes, let’s remember some of Kennan’s points of view on these topics.
@jaymudd2817
@jaymudd2817 Жыл бұрын
He didn't want Greece and Turkey in NATO either.
@peterliu2961
@peterliu2961 Жыл бұрын
Uncommon Knowledge is one of the few programs that get my brain run - love it.
@buravan1512
@buravan1512 Жыл бұрын
they lie to themselves...
@ambition112
@ambition112 Жыл бұрын
1:53: ⚠ The emerging conflict with China has turned into Cold War II, which is more serious and dangerous than the first Cold War. 6:46: 🌍 The US has shifted its attitude towards China and Taiwan, moving towards a potential showdown over Taiwan after decades of strategic ambiguity. 12:57: 🇹🇼 The control of Taiwan is a high-stakes issue for Xi Jinping, and the US commitment to Taiwan is becoming more important. 18:46: ⚠ The war in Ukraine is the first Hot War of Cold War II and Taiwan is likely to face a similar crisis in the near future. 24:42: 🌍 The US must be ready to contain Chinese expansion in Europe, the Pacific, and the Middle East simultaneously. 32:05: 🌐 China's Communist Party still holds Marxist beliefs and aims for communism to triumph worldwide. 36:36: 💡 China's innovation and economic power pose a challenge to the US, but protecting intellectual property and attracting talent through legal immigration are crucial for the US to maintain its technological edge. 42:57: 🌍 The Chinese model appeals to some people and countries due to its crowd control solutions and infrastructure offerings, especially in developing regions. 48:10: 😳 The speaker discusses the potential consequences of China becoming the number one global superpower and argues against it due to China's attitude towards human rights. 54:17: 🔑 The United States needs an external threat to unite and play better, and China is seen as the major strategic challenge. 1:00:01: 💡 The US needs to focus on buying time and deterring China instead of engaging in a showdown over a distant island. Recap by Tammy AI
@jorarch1
@jorarch1 Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for such a great interview with Niall Ferguson. He really gets to the heart of the matter.
@EllieMaes-Grandad
@EllieMaes-Grandad Жыл бұрын
"There is little value in ensuring the survival of our nation if our traditions do not survive with it.” quote from JFK
@JR-tl2ym
@JR-tl2ym Жыл бұрын
Taiwan is on the other side of the planet. It has nothing to do with preserving American traditions
@johnpruett5258
@johnpruett5258 Жыл бұрын
JFK learned the hard way that the deep state runs the country.
@Johnny-dp5mu
@Johnny-dp5mu Жыл бұрын
Show the other two comments!!!!
@madogsioux5636
@madogsioux5636 Жыл бұрын
Latter day America has enthusiastically but perversely surrendered its time proven traditions. As a historian of considerable weight and scope Nail Ferguson should know this better than anyone else.
@AugustusOmega
@AugustusOmega Жыл бұрын
why are your traditions paramount? do you even comprehend the quote?
@futuresmkt
@futuresmkt Жыл бұрын
An arrogant person considers himself perfect. This is the chief harm of arrogance. It interferes with a person's main task in life - becoming a better person...(Leo Tolstoy). Movie: "Fifty five days in Peking"
@welshman776
@welshman776 Жыл бұрын
I love how Peter always calls himself a layman, but he always asks the questions I never think of asking and I am for sure a layman. Love your work Peter!
@egverlander
@egverlander Жыл бұрын
Billy Budd had genuine humility. Robinson doesn't. He has an annoying equality seeking ego that gets in the way.
@atato1331
@atato1331 Жыл бұрын
Common guys, these 2 are just fear mongers after a year they will be singing a different tune.
@user_375a82
@user_375a82 Жыл бұрын
Peter is more on point that faffing Ferguson.
@stQZuO
@stQZuO Жыл бұрын
I'm shocked at the fact that even such a high quality program cannot afford a stable table.
@MikeHoffey
@MikeHoffey Жыл бұрын
Brilliant. I learned a ton. Niall is obviously articulate, and laid these world scenarios out with clarity.
@jimluebke3869
@jimluebke3869 Жыл бұрын
"An island-encompassing blockade situation" ... is an act of war, and the fact that we were doing that to Cuba back during the Missile Crisis was something we were explicitly trying to deny, as that would have been acknowledged as an act of war.
@ace11235
@ace11235 Жыл бұрын
Tell’em.
@jaymudd2817
@jaymudd2817 Жыл бұрын
But not a Quarantine.
@chriszikos3672
@chriszikos3672 Жыл бұрын
No reason to clash with China... Unless one is prone to black or white thinking. Some kind of compromise is never discussed.
@andsowot
@andsowot Жыл бұрын
It's solely upto the population of Taiwan as to how they are governed and by whom.
@chriszikos3672
@chriszikos3672 Жыл бұрын
@@andsowot True, and its none of our business. I'm pretty sure the population there are ok with howthe things have been for the last half century. It's the US who is bent on escalating tensions. Niall pretty much admits this.
@michaelsly901
@michaelsly901 Жыл бұрын
Ferguson is a guy who loves himself so much, he does not get anything right…
@egverlander
@egverlander Жыл бұрын
What a stupid, ignorant ad hominem. "Sly" is right.
@dimitrioskantakouzinos8590
@dimitrioskantakouzinos8590 Жыл бұрын
How the writer of 'The Pity of War' became a leading neocon will never cease surprising me.
@constantquestioning4010
@constantquestioning4010 Жыл бұрын
US neocon money?
@thomastallerico6340
@thomastallerico6340 Жыл бұрын
Two brilliant men having a brilliant discussion. I enjoy this podcast. Peter Robinson and Niall Ferguson should be running this country with their civil discourse and intelligence. Uncommon Knowledge is absolutely wonderful.
@wenyichen5515
@wenyichen5515 Жыл бұрын
I fully support you. When this comes true you'll see how your country crumbles like USSR, not by an enemy but by itself.
@bingosunnoon9341
@bingosunnoon9341 Жыл бұрын
What do you do if you're weary, broken, burnt out, rootless and without hope? I don't know either but I'm pretty sure starting a war with China is not it.
@B.H90
@B.H90 Жыл бұрын
not for average folks like us, but YES,,, for the politicians and the big donors ,,
@thomashutton1963
@thomashutton1963 Жыл бұрын
Russia is indeed all the things you say but I doubt they're planning to start a war with China
@Juergen732
@Juergen732 Жыл бұрын
Those are your words Bingo.. millions of immigrants are pounding on the door wanting to come in because they see America as the last best hope.
@Zero-wu8sk
@Zero-wu8sk Жыл бұрын
我们甚至不认识彼此,为什么要和我们开战😂😅😅😅
@martinlord5969
@martinlord5969 Жыл бұрын
I thought you were talking about China there until the end of the sentence, but apparently not.
@DavidDavoDavidson
@DavidDavoDavidson Жыл бұрын
The way peter sets up his questions is great
@jaysphilosophy1951
@jaysphilosophy1951 Жыл бұрын
Get off the guys nuts....
@Namuchat
@Namuchat Жыл бұрын
No, it isn't.
@lwty
@lwty Жыл бұрын
As Mr. Ferguson talked about market economy in China, take a little time to think about this question, if current CPC is a Soviet style or Mao-era party, why would they allow such a large scale of capital to flow in the system. If you go to a fourth or fifth tier city in China, symbols of American capitalism like Starbucks, KFC, Apple are everywhere. So what people are fighting for in this called Cold War II? US politicians say it is about democracy and freedom, as if the CPC gonna change the way of life in the West. Come on, there are so many issues on its own development, China does care about what kind of system other countries choose. And from ancient times, Chinese people do not think people from far way countries to be able to learn Chinese way of life. Keep the thought that China has inferior innovation for lacking of freedom. It is not a bad thing for the other side to continue to make false judgments if they really think we should fight.
@tonysu8860
@tonysu8860 Жыл бұрын
Actually Xi is a return to Maoist leadership and a departure from China's other leadership since Deng (which is a weakness of this video's discussion that doesn't recognize this difference). After Xi took some time to consolidate his power, he did exactly as you said he didn't which was to enforce laws making foreign capital investment, loans and ownership illegal in China. Recently though, Xi's leadership has recognized the folly of destroying global financial relationships with China's failing exit from Pandemic lockdowns and needs outside financial help through its current difficulties. In fact, there's a lot that Xi's central CCP leadership is rolling back in the way of promoting nationalistic isolationism... The "3 red lines" is no longer being strictly enforced to try to get the Real Estate market going again, the Real Estate loan defaults that placed foreign currency bonds at the front of the line and restrictions on stock ownership on the Chinese exchanges by foreigners is being relaxed. In other words, absolutely Xi tried to remake the Chinese economy by killing off domestic capitalistic practices in an effort largely to gain more control and beat down the social and political strength of the wealthy but is finding that was very misguided and it may be too late to reverse the collapse Xi initiated.
@madogsioux5636
@madogsioux5636 Жыл бұрын
Americans are full of themselves even as their dollar is fit for the toilet.
@lwty
@lwty Жыл бұрын
@@tonysu8860 CPC would not sacrifice prosperity to gain more control. 1. Sacrifice prosperity, e.g., more regulations and less market mechanisms, would not necessarily give you more control 2. CPC already have enough control, they don’t need too much more. 3. CPC’s grand target (and the underlying legitimacy) is the rejuvenation of China. So prosperity is a must and actually is the precondition to reunify Taiwan, while reunification itself would not bring you prosperity. The market mechanism is still largely in place in China’s economy, CPC is not so naive to jeopardise it. About foreign capital and ownership, you can go to any Tier-2 or Tier-3 city in China, there are plenty of Starbucks, Peer’s Coffee, Tim Horton, etc. And they are crowded with people.
@JK-tr2mt
@JK-tr2mt Жыл бұрын
We all live under heavily surveillance societies, whether we live in China, UK, US, EU, etc. We are really all ruled by oligarchies. Political ideologies and systems make little difference!
@oxglowinc.1614
@oxglowinc.1614 Жыл бұрын
Impressive, I love the clarity, flow and detailed analysis from Dr. Niall.
@BaronTaiwanese111
@BaronTaiwanese111 Жыл бұрын
Pursuit of deterrence is pursuit of peace. The more mental and physical preparedness we have, the less likely the hot war will arise. Thank you.
@sateendra
@sateendra Жыл бұрын
This is Satindra Chakrabarti in Canada. Migrated from India in 1996. This discussion is an eye opener. I just shared this with many of my friends, ex colleagues. Mr.Ferguson, I am sure authored many books touching upon major world issues. I am going to search if my library has a few. I am sure they have.
@joekerr9036
@joekerr9036 Жыл бұрын
Another Indian emigrant running away from the poverty of India.
@parnamsaini4751
@parnamsaini4751 Жыл бұрын
Accha?
@clancyhughes
@clancyhughes Жыл бұрын
Great discussion. You spoke of a nuclear threat during the Cuban missile crisis. I served during the Korean War, not so cold. You may not recall that K.F. Dulles negotiated against Russias further participation in the Korean conflict with a dozen Strategic Air Command bombers, B36s, fully armed with nuclear bombs, flying holding patterns just outside of Russia’s 12 mile limit off Russias Arctic Coast. Note how close that came to Stalingrad. Still classified, even scarier incidents occurred.
@DieFlabbergast
@DieFlabbergast Жыл бұрын
What!? Stalingrad (now known as Volgograd) is thousands of miles south of the Arctic Coast. It's only a couple of hundred kilometers north of the Caspian Sea! Were you thinking of Leningrad (now renamed St. Petersburg?
@page88ish
@page88ish Жыл бұрын
No wonder why the world becomes so dangerous when you get guys like them talking about topics that completely ignore the truth.
@chrisgreene2623
@chrisgreene2623 Жыл бұрын
This is a very informative channel for conservative intellects that everyone of any political persuasion should watch; especially Nial Berguson a prominent and well written Historian
@exhainca
@exhainca Жыл бұрын
He's views are unalanced. To say that the US is good for the world is laughable.
@bartb7450
@bartb7450 Жыл бұрын
“Conservative intellect “ is an oxymoron
@seanmoran2743
@seanmoran2743 Жыл бұрын
He had a bias which should be looked at
@seanmoran2743
@seanmoran2743 Жыл бұрын
@@exhainca It could be if it didn’t involve Imperial Ambitions to control the rest of the world
@cabasadefogo9533
@cabasadefogo9533 Жыл бұрын
It’s funny how these pundits distort the reality. Whether you like it or not Taiwan is the geographic name of the island. They call themselves Republic of China and claims to be the rightful rulers of ALL of China in their freaking constitution! All but a handful of UN nations recognize Beijing’s Peoples Republic of China as rightful ruler of all of china mainland and island of Taiwan. This includes our (USA) own state department. Those countries that recognize Republic of China. Recognize her as not an independent island nation but as ruler of the whole of China. Hence they can’t have diplomatic relations with Beijing simultaneously. If we are going to discuss the problem of Taiwan. We must first acknowledge all the above truth. The big question is what will happen if republic of China gives up her claim to rest of China and secede. Except majority of Taiwan ppl want to maintain status quo. While a minority wants to declare independence and another minority wants reunification. This is a lingering civil war that is best left alone to the Chinese on both sides of the isles to finish. Any interference will require a declaration of war on a freaking nuclear power! And I don’t want to see my family or earth die to protect the US hegemony in Asia.
@tonysu8860
@tonysu8860 Жыл бұрын
On the other hand, the United States must always stand for a World Order that is based on International Rule of Law and among the various laws, the status quo after WWII was arbitrarily set as the starting point for any border disputes. Changes to borders and people rights since then have been by discussion, negotiation and if necessary adjudication. In all these ways, the CCP has violated the international law by threatening to reunify by force and acting intentionally provocatively threatening military force. Taiwan is not the only instance of China flouting international law. China attempts to claim maritime rights across the entire Taiwan Strait, claims the 9 dash line, re-drawing the border with India and threatens other islands in the East China Sea. China regularly sends organized fishing fleets that wipe out fish stocks in the protected economic zone of other countries. China's behavior is fundamentally autocratic with self interest and violates the rights of nations whenever convenient.
@bill70545
@bill70545 Жыл бұрын
The main reason why Taiwan still calls itself as Republic of China and declares the right to whole China is that CCP will act aggressively if we do any amendment on our name of state and territory declaration. They will see it as a huge step pursing de jure independence if we change our constitution. However, majority of Taiwanese would love to change the constitution if China gives up using force against Taiwan. Also, most of us tend to call ourselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese. By the way, ever since the democratization of Taiwan, every President of Taiwan has accepted dual Recognition between PRC and ROC. It is the leader of PRC does not accept this scneriao.
@petercollingwood522
@petercollingwood522 Жыл бұрын
If you're not smart enought to understand that there is a hell of a lot more at stake than US hegemony in Asia, perhaps you should go back and listen to the whole talk again.
@shazzaz
@shazzaz Жыл бұрын
@@bill70545 Taiwan was a dictatorship from 1949 to 2000.
@雅君墨客-i9z
@雅君墨客-i9z Жыл бұрын
@@tonysu8860 Do you mean that China can interfere with California independence or American state independence?😂
@claudetterobertson4128
@claudetterobertson4128 Жыл бұрын
The first World War was from 1754-1763. Most Americans know it as the French and Indian War and in England it's known as the 7 years war. However, the French and Indians in the American colonies fought as allies against the British. Other countries that were involved were Austria, Spain, Sweden as allies against France. The battles were fought on the Atlantic & Indian oceans, in North America, Europe, and India. This was a world war, but probably would not be considered a U.S. world war since it took place before the American Revolution.
@sionnach.1374
@sionnach.1374 Жыл бұрын
I concur
@beachboy13600
@beachboy13600 Жыл бұрын
I disagree.
@outisnemo555
@outisnemo555 Жыл бұрын
It’s not really a world war because significant portions of the world were not effected at all, especially China (and East Asia as a whole). It was essentially a war within the European system, with European countries renegotiating their power balance and colonial reach. Anywhere that wasn’t a European colony wasn’t effected.
@HoradrimBR
@HoradrimBR Жыл бұрын
Not sure if included more peoples and lands than the religious wars between the protestants and catholics - that involved the whole american continent somehow, many important ports in Africa and southeast Asia, outside Europe, of course.
@MrPokerblot
@MrPokerblot Жыл бұрын
Exactly. There was conflicts in the 1700 and 1800s in which the belligerents where from nearly every military. But it can only be called a world war when the real Indians are also involved and also the conflict is affecting the fronts of all continents such africa and The two wars in the 1900s can be defined as world wars Because there was no people or land on the planet that was not directly affected by those wars.
@aymanfahmy7791
@aymanfahmy7791 Жыл бұрын
Would love to see John Mearsheimer a guest on your program
@dro355
@dro355 Жыл бұрын
eesh no way, he's an idiot. He completely and utterly f'd up his entire analysis of russia and ukraine, Meirsheimer is just trying to revise history to suit his theory so he can try to have any relevance
@FinnGriffin
@FinnGriffin Жыл бұрын
I was thinking the same thing.
@tonysu8860
@tonysu8860 Жыл бұрын
No. Anyone who believes in John Mearsheimer's political philosophy Realism believes in a coming multi-polar world where only the 3 strongest countries militarily (Russia, China, US) count for anything and all other people must bow to the wishes of the competing Polar Powers. What kind of world is that?
@ivancho5854
@ivancho5854 Жыл бұрын
I certainly wouldn't. 👎
@aymanfahmy7791
@aymanfahmy7791 Жыл бұрын
@@ivancho5854 you don't have to watch it
@fluffymadsquirrel5946
@fluffymadsquirrel5946 Жыл бұрын
USA and UK exceptionalism clearly on display for all who are fed up of this type of rhetoric.
@peterreston6478
@peterreston6478 Жыл бұрын
A better than excellent discussion of the China issue. Dr. Ferguson has captured the high ground of modern Chinese studies. His conflict appreciation is superb.
@cindymonk6994
@cindymonk6994 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for exposing regular folks like me to discussions on this level.
@cheekhoonchan1627
@cheekhoonchan1627 Жыл бұрын
a former #1 world power advising a declining #1 power how to deter a rising #1 power a spectre haunts the collective west... the spectre of _common prosperity_ (Pax Sinica)
@egverlander
@egverlander Жыл бұрын
Your naiveté is exceded only by your ignorance of history. What a fool you are.
@kitirc8000
@kitirc8000 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for this interview! Great to hear Niall's take.
@Mary-um9fk
@Mary-um9fk Жыл бұрын
he should be secretary of state!
@sjliu2007
@sjliu2007 Жыл бұрын
let me ask a question that was mentioned in the video. Who gives western the right to contain China's growth?
@rodbutler9864
@rodbutler9864 Жыл бұрын
Never in the field of human conflict, were so many words used to say so very little.
@007.M-D
@007.M-D Жыл бұрын
Balanced discussion in its questions as much as in its answers. it is a reflection that insists on the urgency for some, and the opposite for others. So far there are a lot of "possible" including the best ones...Hopefully. Creativity will be key. On all sides.
@philmebeer5660
@philmebeer5660 Жыл бұрын
Thank you. Great interview. I think Niall is right on point.
@AugustusOmega
@AugustusOmega Жыл бұрын
thinking is fun huh🤣
@rickvoit7310
@rickvoit7310 Жыл бұрын
Peter, thank you thank you for bringing all of us such incredible talent and wisdom! Your interviewing skills are second to none. God bless you.
@maxwayne9087
@maxwayne9087 Жыл бұрын
My god what an enlightening interview, and that's coming from a Taiwanese American immigrant who's supposed to know these things. Taiwanese people are most certainly very well informed on the China issue, but some points that Dr. Ferguson brought up, no one is talking about in Taiwan, and they should. And even more thankful for Dr. Ferguson to set the answer right once and for all, on why Taiwan doesn't boost it' defense spending, looking like leeches on US military might as a result. The answer is a simple, practical, and perhaps a bit sad. The truth is that Taiwanese PEOPLE are not rich, a few certainly are, but wealth is certainly not distributed. The poor needs dire help, and even though they are not getting any, any political party in control understand that any additional military spending will not be met favorably at the polls by the majority poor citizens, when the questions of war, or even unification with China sometimes (or as self-governing districts under Chinese-rule), are still on the table. No country wants to spend money on defense when those money can be used for helping out citizens in so many ways, unless the people are convinced, unitedly, in an upcoming war, and the need to fight. And right now, Taiwanese people have not made up their minds on either.
@brucemoose926
@brucemoose926 Жыл бұрын
Well, the Brits did fight to keep the Falklands off the coast of Argentina, but then again, the Falklands was and still is British.
@xgguo3531
@xgguo3531 Жыл бұрын
The "American Suez crisis" event will benefit Asia ,Africa or South America, the same way as British Suez crisis event benefits the world and US. Niall takes the developed countries(US/UK) higher living standard as granted, but Chinese people are aslo working hard for the same or better living standard, which is not given by anybody. Deferring China rising means the damage of average Chinese people living standard, which will backfire Americans as we can see.
@Razorblade510
@Razorblade510 Жыл бұрын
Outstanding video. I could listen to Neil all day.
@Ben1159a
@Ben1159a Жыл бұрын
As usual, outstanding, simply outstanding.
@QuizmasterLaw
@QuizmasterLaw Жыл бұрын
they're repeatedly wrong about basic facts, but don't worry they can't speak Chinese (but Chinese people can speak English)....
@uncread
@uncread Жыл бұрын
Brilliant,brilliant,brilliant interview,god bless KZbin for moment like this!
@tyme5837
@tyme5837 Жыл бұрын
whatever happens, please, no war by any parties involved, no invasion of taiwan
@Allgood33
@Allgood33 Жыл бұрын
"China took Hong Kong." Returned? "In the mind of the Taiwanese people, they are not Chinese." Except they speak Mandarin, their culture is Chinese and they are Han Chinese?
@edsteadham4085
@edsteadham4085 Жыл бұрын
So Canadians and Australians and new Zealanders are British. They speak English their culture is English.
@edsteadham4085
@edsteadham4085 Жыл бұрын
Oh yeah they all look alike too. You forgot to add that
@Allgood33
@Allgood33 Жыл бұрын
@@edsteadham4085 Now, if we care to be technical, when was Taiwan an independent country? Spend some time to read the Taiwan Constitution and find out it also consider Taiwan as part of the Mainland, or to be more exact, Mainland as part of Taiwan. Go on.
@peterhe7887
@peterhe7887 Жыл бұрын
It’s stunning and extraordinary listening to 2 superior being telling each other how they are or what they represent and how superior they are! They are so full of themselves they have find ways to belittle the rest of the world out side of their superior race. I would suggest to both of them try to understand the concept “state competence” that Martin Jacques said about the emerging governance model. Well, second thought maybe not, simply because of who they are…
@lidiasantoro3098
@lidiasantoro3098 Жыл бұрын
Kissingers ill advised escalation of the Vietnam war and his stubborn support for it, led to thousands of unnecessary deaths. He was hardly a great Diplomat, and was involved with many bloody dictatorships in South America. Many of his secretive endeavours there were unethical and even illegal. Not a fan.
@rbb.828
@rbb.828 Жыл бұрын
Kissingers key error was the fact that all of his decisions were based on the belief the USSR would live another century. And for all we know, had he not engaged and advised as if they would be around in constant struggle against us for another 100 years perhaps they would have!
@DanielMartinez-lz3ot
@DanielMartinez-lz3ot Жыл бұрын
China has body part farms. Russia starved 6 million people in Ukraine so they could show the west that electricity had modernized Moscow. I prefer Kissinger to slave labor, how about you?
@useodyseeorbitchute9450
@useodyseeorbitchute9450 Жыл бұрын
"He was hardly a great Diplomat, and was involved with many bloody dictatorships in South America. Many of his secretive endeavours there were unethical and even illegal." Setting aside issue of how effective he was, aren't "secretive endeavours there were unethical and even illegal" part of job description of a diplomat?
@kevinjenner9502
@kevinjenner9502 Жыл бұрын
We first found out about the Nixon/Kissinger CIA Coup in Chile via the Church Hearings of 1975.
@tomconservative1074
@tomconservative1074 Жыл бұрын
Very interesting thought Lidia…Do you feel the same way about our policy in the Ukraine even though at this point we haven’t sent troops…yet.
@robertjosan
@robertjosan Жыл бұрын
Fantasic interview , please bring more attention to the China conflict with speakers of this caliber
@rumchjoe
@rumchjoe Жыл бұрын
The war in Ukraine is a land forces war. The potential Taiwan war, will be a naval battle and also a battle with long range missiles. These scenarios will draw on separate reserves of weapons; the resources to support Ukraine's fight will not diminish the resources to support Taiwan.
@donkruuz3903
@donkruuz3903 Жыл бұрын
Love how Americans can always make things have that happy feel good ending even in interviews ... there is no going back for China, it's full steam ahead in their own ways. China is like the US in the 1920s just that the rest of the world doens't know it. They have lots of space to grow.
@Eric-kn4yn
@Eric-kn4yn Жыл бұрын
Then why one China and taiwan
@drscopeify
@drscopeify Жыл бұрын
Not true, the reason is that China is authoritarian so it needs to maintain domination over the currency for use with stabilizing the economy the USA gave up control over the Dollar to international markets. Today a leader of any country can buy as much Dollars as they want and then use the Dollars to manipulate their currency to sell Dollars and buy their own currency back. This is bad for the USA as it means that other nations have more power over the Dollar value than the USA does other in times like recently when the rates rise in the USA but these are short term events and soon enough power over the Dollar returns back to global markets. China cannot afford to let their currency become fully floating or they will lose control over it to international markets and players like the Dollar. Even the Euro which is the REAL enemy of the Dollar, not RMB it's the EURO that is the enemy of the Dollar but regardless, even the EURO does not just let anyone buy as much as they want. If you know how Euro works you will know that there are controls over it who gets to buy how much. No such limitation with the Dollar. The USA is probably more worried about the power of the Euro then the RMB due to the actions of France which seeks to counter the USA within the western sphere and while France will never match the USA it can try and manipulate Europe against the USA which is problem. I would dare say France is more of an issue then China. Why? Because China has never been a military power, it has never proven itself and it has avoided conflict since the end of the Sino-Vietnam war which did not end well. China lost some 30,000 solders in about 3 weeks of war while the USA lost 60,000 in 20 years in Vietnam, if China had committed to stay in Vietnam how many men would they lose? 2 million? 10 million? China is not a military capable nation and it might have some fancy new ships but it still isn't today. A cold or hot war with the USA will be a major risk for China that could destroy the credibility of the CCP and tear it down internally.
@petersmith3953
@petersmith3953 Жыл бұрын
@@drscopeify Europe needs to up it's game to assist the US to contain China, the Ukraine war seems to have changed things , the Germans are going to substantially up their defence spending , about time too.
@Bk6346
@Bk6346 Жыл бұрын
@@drscopeify You don’t even know the history of the 1979 China-Vietnam War. Deng Xiaoping told Jimmy Carter and the Soviet Union who were allies of Vietnam that it was limited war to punish them for their involvement in Cambodia.
@Saffsa
@Saffsa Жыл бұрын
@@drscopeify so False . Modernised Nuclear Capability of Today's China is Clear for all to to see bar the Self Righteous Arrogant . Its Economy is far greater than US despite Rhetoric to the Contrary . If China decides to take Taiwan it will occur despite the US and it's over Hyped Military superiority . The US has a history of meddling in the affairs of poorer Nations with weak military capability for the theft of resource under the guise of Democracy and sphere of Influence . The US is an Economy in Decline . A Declining Empire . China is an emerging World leading Superpower on all levels
@TheRealLanceCummings
@TheRealLanceCummings Жыл бұрын
Ferguson, when asked about whether Zelenskyy was pivotal in the failed Russian attack on Kyiv, misses the whole point. If Zelenskyy had fled, Ukraine is lost. Period. And it was extremely brave of Zelenskyy to have stayed, and rather small of Niall to not acknowledge that straight up front.
@IP-zv1ih
@IP-zv1ih Жыл бұрын
100%. Amazing no one else picked up on this. Ironically I believe that historians of the future will.
@MrBallynally2
@MrBallynally2 Жыл бұрын
Giant caveats in your arguments. Russia didnt lose the early offensive. They had no intention of going into Kiev. The targeted the airport and supply hubs and tied the northern ukranian forces to their spot. Then they took parts of Donbas, Mariupol etc. For keeps. Ever since then Russia has been fighting a succesful war of attricion.
@dmp1520
@dmp1520 Жыл бұрын
@@MrBallynally2 how do u know this is this ur opinion or do u have info? i ask cause every pundit and mouth all over the media has been yelling for a year how the russians have been losing and losing, in kiev, karkhiv and kherson.... one just doesnt know who to believe...
@kavirajanr
@kavirajanr Жыл бұрын
@@MrBallynally2 Its an unconvenient truth not aligned with the narrative Russia failed to take kiev in 3 days which is again a false narrative pushed by the western propaganda.
@lioicomestai3703
@lioicomestai3703 Жыл бұрын
@@IP-zv1ih Oh, ye. But I thought the world recognition of Zelenskyy's leadership was there from the beginning of the invasion was.
@thiamhuatang5109
@thiamhuatang5109 Жыл бұрын
Why does Niall Ferguson try to revise history? In 1978 when I was in a Taiwanese army camp, on it's wall it is stated clearly that "Taiwan will take back China and unite the country". So from the Taiwanese perspective, it is unambiguous that Taiwan is part of China. It doesn't matter what Ferguson thinks or says, Mainland China and Taiwan is part of one China. Ferguson should revert to a position of intellectual integrity as a historian.
@DudeGuyWho
@DudeGuyWho Жыл бұрын
We need to hardline the expectation that those we protect do materially more to protect themselves.
@matthewmmichalski8293
@matthewmmichalski8293 Жыл бұрын
Everyone in America should watch this and wake up to reality!
@actionjksn
@actionjksn Жыл бұрын
This was fantastic I listened to the entire podcast. This guy is so much better and more credible than Peter zeihan. Peter is kind of Hit and miss on a lot of shit but this guy is totally dialed in. I just discovered him tonight. And the host of the show always does great interviews and asks the right questions. I also like the blacked-out background.
@Pdotta1
@Pdotta1 Жыл бұрын
Niall is a lot like Steven in that they think Chinese history started in 1950.
@petercollingwood522
@petercollingwood522 Жыл бұрын
No. He doesn't. He's simply aware that modern China is not the same thing as the Quing dynasty.
@jimmyboy2
@jimmyboy2 Жыл бұрын
In keeping the context relevant. Yes, in recent history, China wasn't much in the 50 years prior. They only talk of Britain and Germany in the last 100 years too. This is what is relevant... unless you think talking about the Anglo Saxon invasion of Roman Celtic England is useful, oh and there's those annoying vikings and scots too 😂
@Pdotta1
@Pdotta1 Жыл бұрын
Those who fail to study history are doomed to repeat it.
@rickking886
@rickking886 Жыл бұрын
Let’s replay this interview 15 years from now. By then we all can tell this interview has its merit, or just utter ideological B.S.
@AugustusOmega
@AugustusOmega Жыл бұрын
its dog sht, I will save you the wait
@romancandlefight1144
@romancandlefight1144 Жыл бұрын
"let's wait til after the Nazis to see if there was any reason to worry about them"
@ArtfulDodger566
@ArtfulDodger566 Жыл бұрын
Anyone remember Chimerica😂
@ssuwandi3240
@ssuwandi3240 Жыл бұрын
China's shaking up Arab League was necessary counter towards NATO expansion. The first mistake made by Biden admin aside from other mistakes / sanctions followed suit.
@THESEVENDON
@THESEVENDON Жыл бұрын
It’s propaganda.
@goodtalker
@goodtalker Жыл бұрын
My neighbor comes from a long line of Marines. His son and daughter have declined to serve based upon their race. (I'm sure you can image what that is?) While China amps up what looks to be an invasion of Taiwan, our so-called leaders have no clue. God help us.
@RexJebamoney
@RexJebamoney Жыл бұрын
A very interesting take as always when Prof. Niall is speaking. Are we being slowly being made to realize that universal cooperation is inevitable if the earth is to survive? Harmony in diversity as the ancient Jewish mystics would say in the 17th century. I just came back from a trip to Greece and Turkey. Can’t help but ask what happened in the past. What ever happened to those ancient civilizations to decline?
@7hx89
@7hx89 Жыл бұрын
What can you expect from a supposed intelligent and well-researched follow who believed millions are or have been detained with a genocide? Diversity? Anything not by his rules is evil and at least carries an evil intention.
@SueFerreira75
@SueFerreira75 Жыл бұрын
The Earth will survive very well and will be able heal itself when Mankind has become extinct.
@MrBallynally2
@MrBallynally2 Жыл бұрын
Yes, if you think in terms of enemies and win or lose this will always be the case. However, the framework being put forward us not based on hegemony like the current US global order. China does not have the military capacity and is also not trying to build one. Ot is vastly different from the kind of ground zero after ww1 and ww2. But, if the US continue on this path ww3 might be around the corner. Lots of fans of the current aggression towards China.
@kevinjenner9502
@kevinjenner9502 Жыл бұрын
Yellow Peril rhetoric is part of public policy.
@jiahan3849
@jiahan3849 Жыл бұрын
Love the two at the end. Thank both of you. An excellent program.
@wegder
@wegder Жыл бұрын
If you can't stand up to Russia, you certainly can't stand up to China
@thestardusters7640
@thestardusters7640 Жыл бұрын
At 30:33 Mr. Ferguson states that a Russian officer gave the order to a nuclear weapon. My information is that the captain of the submarine was asked if they should (not fire) a weapon. The captain is reported to have replied "don't bother. If the Americans wanted to sink us they would have already done so." I was a Navy pilot tracking that submarine at that time.
@saishyamnilgiri1
@saishyamnilgiri1 Жыл бұрын
My strongest advice to the US is to STOP all it's wars for a start! Get yourself together, get your economics in order, get a better grasp of the current state of advancement of the world and NOT from a bygone perspective! Build a better US and mend relationships with your enemies. You'll begin to earn and comand the respect you are due and not have to demand it!
@kanweiwu7339
@kanweiwu7339 Жыл бұрын
War or Peace will be only issue facing the Taiwanese people for the presidential election in early 2024. However, we Taiwanese are culturally and ethnically Chinese and our country is formally named as the Republic of China. In theory, the Civil War, democracy vs. authoritarianism, is still going on without any armistice or ceasefire agreement.
@tyko2686
@tyko2686 Жыл бұрын
Great! Let’s fight China to the last Taiwanese, just like how US fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, Bravo America!
@intothemoat
@intothemoat Жыл бұрын
When a technology is made open source, it's available for the public to use and develop. That is not stealing..
@rockydopeydoge6730
@rockydopeydoge6730 Жыл бұрын
The Joint Declaration over Hong Kong is not just an agreement with UK, it is an international treaty.
@ArcherWarhound
@ArcherWarhound Жыл бұрын
In discussing the parallels of Cold War 1 & 2 I would mention the space races. China's space agency is currently out NASA-ing NASA, pouring mountains of money and manpower into putting up rocket after rocket bearing spy satellites, explorer satellites, and components for their own space station, while on the US side SpaceX, which is really just pursuing Elon's goals and not US interests, is carrying the whole weight of our race efforts because NASA's traditional partners have all settled into a comfortable system of graft in the form of continued pay for endlessly extended piddling and tardiness.
@garypowell1540
@garypowell1540 Жыл бұрын
Bad analogy. Cuba at that time had had its revolution and was being run by a Marxist Communist government under Castro. I assume that Taiwan would still be under its current nationalist government. Therefore it would not be a blockade of a potentially hostile country, it would be a defensive operation more similar to the Berlin Airlift, or the Royal and US navies sent to the China Sea to protect Australia from invasion by the Japanese. Also, the US and Royal navies are already in the area, so they won't be going very far, and have allies in the surrounding area with deep ports, ship fueling, and repairing facilities. The Soviets had no such thing while floating about in the Caribbean during the early 60s. IMO, the US Navy, and others have all of the cards in their favor. China would have to have had a collective mental breakdown to attempt to invade and hold Taiwan. Hitler could not even cross the relatively tiny and benign English Channel while neither the US nor the Soviets had not even entered the war. China would lose 100 for every troop it managed to land on a Taiwanese beach, and then what? It is not going to happen now or at any time in the future, if it does it would rapidly become a conventional massacre of awesome proportions and gain China nothing for the massive sacrifice of manpower, equipment, trade, and reputation. In many ways, China is in a much worse situation than Russia to be fighting any wars anywhere, but most especially one involving an amphibious landing while being constantly observed by all kinds of modern technologies. France invading and occupying the UK would be a more likely scenario, and that is not going to happen either.
@charleschen9380
@charleschen9380 Жыл бұрын
American blames China for the falling of US empire, but the fact is that no one else can help to avoid finishing of American Empire except America themselves.
@cagdasdirik
@cagdasdirik Жыл бұрын
This is an amazing discussion. Thank you both - very much.
@mysterioanonymous3206
@mysterioanonymous3206 Жыл бұрын
yeah just go man they'll have a menu with pictures then just swipe that credit card man it's only USD 299. avocado smoothie is on the house...
@OALM
@OALM Жыл бұрын
I remember a few years ago that calling out China and its wrongdoings was racist.
@Eric-kn4yn
@Eric-kn4yn Жыл бұрын
The globalist hoped China would play their game well it isnt
@robert8431
@robert8431 Жыл бұрын
The Americans did not get the point when Churchhill gave the iron curtain speech? Let the Brits fight China!
@robert8431
@robert8431 Жыл бұрын
If the Brits were so smart they wouldn't have lost America!
@robert8431
@robert8431 Жыл бұрын
The poor Brits couldn't hold Hong Kong. Now they want America to do their bidding? Dream on!
@TheRealLanceCummings
@TheRealLanceCummings Жыл бұрын
No, Peter. China did *not come up with some kind of new model. (~**42:00** mark) China was gifted a tremendous opportunity by the West to participate in the *existent* model. And because it had a population with a strong work ethic, and absurdly low wages, everyone was happy-particularly Wall Street. Happy that is, until the bet that the West made, which was: "If we help them create a middle class, they will become burghers and put the knives away", went bad.
@kevinjenner9502
@kevinjenner9502 Жыл бұрын
Nixon’s vision was that of leading them away from the Soviet Union.
@jasonjean2901
@jasonjean2901 Жыл бұрын
Yeah, because that's what the west does, help countries get massive middle-classes. Seriously? China got to where it was by, not only having minimal worker's rights, but by creating a lot of Special Economic Zones, where workers lost almost all their rights. They toiled endlessly to raise themselves up with the breadcrumbs that the west provided them. Unlike almost all developing nations, they used these circumstances to build up their country into an economic powerhouse. Only an extremely ignorant person thinks that the collective west was benevolent investing in China. China, through the sacrifices of its people, made itself the best option for investment and slowly climbed the value chain. Now, as wages increase, that investment is going elsewhere, as everyone knew it would.
@kevinrich5222
@kevinrich5222 Жыл бұрын
Did the United States put away its knives because it became a bourgeoisie? When did the United States put away the knife? China's per capita GDP only needs to reach Japan's level, which is about half of that of the United States. China's total will be three times that of the United States, and it will become an invincible Godzilla. The military strength and political influence will also be three times that of the United States. The elites of the United States at that time would definitely not think as stupidly as you did. Do you think they would want to create such a terrifying China? Whether such a China is democratic or not, the United States will lose its hegemony and become a puppet of China.
@paulwright2264
@paulwright2264 Жыл бұрын
The knives I see are all American.
@rodrigobauler8287
@rodrigobauler8287 Жыл бұрын
Correlation of forces is a concept that has its roots in Hegel’s history, Marx’s economy-politics and Bolshevik revolutionary narrative. The Soviet concept was by Lenin (not Stalin) and most likely influenced by his readings of Clausewitz. The Soviet concept fails to include morale and individual belief in its formula. Great talk as usual.
@The_Flamekeepers
@The_Flamekeepers Жыл бұрын
I loved Niall in The Ascent of Money. I'm curious about his opinion of the disintegration of Chimerica.
@naguoning
@naguoning Жыл бұрын
I have to say I am impressed by Niall Fergurson's level of understanding of the circumstances regarding Taiwan but an important corrections. It is unclear to me if he is talking about the UK or USA or when saying "we"? With regards to the status of Taiwan but the position of the USA and some other countries (not sure about UK) is to "acknowledge that the PRC claims Taiwan, but importantly without recognizing or refuting that claim. It is also important to note that recently Taiwan has been steadily upping military spending, increasing length of conscription etc.
@CM-bi6oy
@CM-bi6oy Жыл бұрын
Much mention of the Cuban missile crisis and how the USSR had to back down but the US could not impose its will on Cuba which continued to be a small thorn in the side of the US beyond the end of cold war I.
@geopietro
@geopietro Жыл бұрын
Excellent and erudite conversation. Timely too. Thank you.
@truelove3408
@truelove3408 Жыл бұрын
typical anglo talks. the bad guys are Always on the other side. nothin new.
@sandipmistry5218
@sandipmistry5218 Жыл бұрын
Brilliant really good conversation
@HouseholdDog
@HouseholdDog Жыл бұрын
You know, the US could always try diplomacy for a change. If Ukraine has taught us anything, it's that the US really can't fight a major war.
@QuizmasterLaw
@QuizmasterLaw Жыл бұрын
the USA will be constrained to sane policies because they like money and Chinese do too furthermore unlike Britain the USA is home to millions of ethnic Chinese. They're gonna keep doing business racists and imperialists fantasies to the contrary.
@kevinjenner9502
@kevinjenner9502 Жыл бұрын
4/28/2023. Armed Services Committee Hearings..Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen Christopher Cavoli..”I’d like to underline your comment about the specificity of the degradation of the Russian forces…much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict..
@peterwebb8732
@peterwebb8732 Жыл бұрын
Diplomacy was what gave us "Peace in our time" in the late 1930s. Now we call it "Appeasement" Oh, and one of the reasons that the Axis declared war on the US was exactly what you just stated -that America would not fight to victory. How did that work out?
@rbb.828
@rbb.828 Жыл бұрын
If anything Ukraine has taught us diplomacy with authoritarian states is POINTLESS. What planet do you live on
@MrBallynally2
@MrBallynally2 Жыл бұрын
Isnt that exactly what Putin has been thinking? That it is pointless to deal with gung ho absolutists like the US/UK hawks?
@falldog9
@falldog9 Жыл бұрын
Such a terrific programme.
@sheavelte2917
@sheavelte2917 Жыл бұрын
I'm glad the Guest is very knowledgeable about the China constitution, under both the mainland of China and Taiwan Provice, which still has the same ONE CHINA POLICY . And it's recorded at the UN. Western countries, led by the US, the NATO, etc, stop stirring the mud around the world. Let the earth be peaceful.
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