Combat Drones & Future Air Warfare - Autonomy, Teaming & Next-generation Drone Wingmen

Sponsored by 80,000 hours: If you’re interested, head to 80000hours.org/perun for access to their career guide, newsletter, and myriad other resources.
We've previously talked about 6th Generation fighters on this channel ( • The Race for 6th Gener... ) but when they take to the skies, they won't be doing so alone.
Increasingly autonomous and capable unmanned combat aircraft are here, and they are going to change the way you build an air force.
Forces around the world are talking about the immense possibilities of combining manned and unmanned systems together into a cohesive team.
In this episode I discuss the concepts behind drone wingmen, some of the major development programs, and what they might mean for the future of air warfare.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
For example, proud shilling of the MQ-28 is done for comedic effect and should not be taken to represent financial or any other kind of advice
Relevant Reading/sourcing
US DoD Directive 3000.09
www.esd.whs.mil/portals/54/do...
PACAF Strategy 2030:
www.pacaf.af.mil/News/Article...
DARPA Longshot:
www.darpa.mil/program/longshot
www.flightglobal.com/military...
Harpy
www.iai.co.il/p/harpy
Airbus on FCAS
www.airbus.com/en/products-se...
• FCAS System of Systems
www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/pr...
NGAD is expensive
www.defensenews.com/air/2022/...
Reporting on Australian Loyal Wingman concepts
www.aspistrategist.org.au/loy...
Reporting on CCA
www.airandspaceforces.com/usa...
www.airforce-technology.com/p...
www.airandspaceforces.com/col...
www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...
www.airandspaceforces.com/air...
www.defensenews.com/air/2022/...
S-70
tass.com/defense/1375043
tass.com/defense/1452733
Reporting on Mosquito
www.airforce-technology.com/f...
Interview on F-35 Fusion
sldinfo.com/2018/11/the-f-35-...
Unmanned Aircraft Systems report - CRS
crsreports.congress.gov/produ...
Kizelima image from
www.dailysabah.com/business/d...
Skyborg
www.af.mil/News/Article-Displ...
Reporting on ERC
www.edrmagazine.eu/mbda-devel...
X-61A Gremlin
www.defensenews.com/industry/...
Secretary Kendall discussing NGAD and CCA
www.airandspaceforces.com/ken...
www.airandspaceforces.com/ken...
PRC Images and concepts
www.airdatanews.com/chinese-t...
www.reuters.com/business/aero...
Marines vs Robots
www.businessinsider.com/marin...
Mosquito
www.gov.uk/government/news/ro...
MQ-28 Ghost Bat
www.boeing.com.au/products-se...
www.airforce.gov.au/our-work/...
MQ-20 flying autonomously using LEO SATCOM Datalink
www.ga.com/ga-asi-flies-mq-20...
Timestamp:
00:00:00 - The Race
00:01:49 - What Am I Talking About?
00:04:12 - Automation Levels
00:07:48 - Why Go Unmanned?
00:12:13 - Teaming
00:14:53 - Why Aviation?
00:34:06 - Programs Of Note
00:46:18 - Collaborative Combat Aircraft
00:57:13 - The Evolving Systems
01:03:35 - Towards Full Autonomy
01:05:28 - Conclusion

[@PerunAU]

Sponsored by 80,000 hours: If you're interested in accessing their career guide and other resources to help you find a career with impact, consider going to 80000hours.org/perun Today we're doing a new instalment in the 'race for' series picking up where we left off with Sixth Generation Fighters in December 2022. I know that the manned fighters are the attention grabbers that always get the prestige (and clicks) but building a force is about more than just the flagship platform, and Sixth Generation Fighters are unlikely to be able to do their jobs without families of at least partially autonomous drone wingmen to support them in their mission (and the munitions that leverage networks into destroyed targets) I hope you enjoy the discussion - and I will add the disclaimer in case it doesn't come through in the video that my flagrant shilling of MQ-28 is meant for comedic effect and I'm not actually suggesting the UK MOD is about to go all in on an Aussie drone design. Cheers all, and thank you for everything as always.

[@akumaking1]

Are you on new tech as well?

[@Syndr1]

Hi Perun, i told my mother that video games 🎮 🕹 would give me a career choice.

[@pradhyudh]

When will the indian military analysis comes out

[@haydnw869]

Hey mate how’s it going?

[@captainmaim]

Best Australian video this week... and that's saying something because Shadiversity had a really good one.

[@jeffcooper7258]

Power Point Man doesn't get enough credit for his comedic skills. Dry comedy isn't easy. Keeping a poker face/voice during delivery isn't easy either. His layering of meme, cultural, tech and historical concepts into a tight statement of fact is a rare art. The bit in the 14 minute area of the video had me roaring. Perun has said, "I'm the least interesting thing in this story." or something like that. I'd argue he's wrong. While I share his lack of enthusiasm for personal internet fame, for all the same reasons--I'd argue that what this guy is doing is critical to fixing the rot in modern industrial democracies. We need an informed public. We need it in a media space full of conflicting noise. We need to encourage people to create open source intel, so we can learn how to dig through the media noise ourselves with the same mental tools.

[@tonyharpur8383]

AGREED! ☺️

[@Mrgoofyoops]

Well put.

[@sstff6771]

👏👏

[@sniperfi4532]

He excels at making presentations not only watchable but enjoyable with comedic lines and not mincing words. Just straight up saying “you’re gonna be in a shit situation” instead of using less profane methods really makes it easy reading. I respect his position of wanting to be secondary to his presentations as it allows more retention of his talking points rather than focusing on his personality/who he is.

[@kieranh2005]

He's Australian. Dry comedy is what they do.

[@Volvith]

I love the Marine v.s. Darpa Drone op. Darpa: "We trained our robot to detect humans and human walking." Marines: _"Yeah but what if we just walk like a tree?"_

[@TheSkyGuy77]

Or hide in a box

[@Demopans5990]

Or cartwheel

[@alexipestov7002]

Marine: "I'm a tree!"

[@geoffgill5334]

Semper Fi, adapt and overcome

[@lordcirrhosisofliver]

"I learned this from solid snake!"

[@Zolbat]

Given the military complex' proclivity for catchy acronyms, "human in the loop engagement routine" should probably be avoided

[@rainbowsixODST]

🤣

[@smokeysoldier8590]

Oh snap, great observation.

[@BrutalSword]

LOL

[@tonyharpur8383]

Ouch! 😂

[@christopherconard2831]

At least switch to the Navy system of using the first couple of letters. HUMINTLOENGRO

[@MrNigzy23]

I love the idea of a few marines just trolling the heck out of an AI. You just know that the one guy who came up with the cardboard box was making Metal Gear references throughout that entire test.

[@nicolaasstempels8207]

I missed the cardboard drones in this talk.

[@Yadid1]

"Huh?! Just a box."

[@sagichnichtsowiesonicht7326]

Apparently this test was quite old, i don't know if the 1st metal gear game was already out by then.

[@aaronkochenrath5863]

​@@sagichnichtsowiesonicht7326when do you think the first one came out?

[@jameslyddall]

“Is this all there is to load? To the heliport huh”

[@wh8787]

"We haven't figured out a way to make fighter pilots cheap and disposable" - Imperial Japan shifts uncomfortably.

[@pcslug3122]

Supremacy of will is just isis tactics

[@occamraiser]

Making them cheap had the inevitable consequence of making them very bad pilots, for a while.

[@wh8787]

@@occamraiser I mean, it was born of absolute desperation by a leadership that should have thrown in the towel rather than getting basically teenagers to fly suicide missions.

[@PalleRasmussen]

Those were not fighter pilots.

[@Com18Alpha]

@@PalleRasmussen they were manned cruise missile pilots

[@stewm1267]

Kojima was years ahead of his time. He knew about the stealth value of a generic cardboard box decades ago!

[@_Twink]

He was so meta, the NPCs you sneak past are AI, AI is defeated by cardboard boxes. Clearly the only logical way to trick the NPC AI was with what actually tricks them IRL.

[@oscaranderson5719]

I can’t wait for the invention of the box tank.

[@kieranh2005]

​@@oscaranderson5719perfection has already been achieved. *LONG LIVE THE BOB SEMPLE*

[@oscaranderson5719]

@@kieranh2005 😂 sorry, I misspoke- I meant the tank box

[@robb1324]

"Just a box."

[@kleinesschreckgespenst319]

Imagine how great the Terminator Franchise would have been if at the end John Connor had just entered Skynets central core under a cardboard box giggling the whole time.

[@CatalystD9]

🤣😂🤣

[@2jdjdjdjdjdw]

would be a far more better ending than Genisys and Dark Fate

[@Whatisthisstupidfinghandle]

Considering how much the series devolved that could have been true

[@SirDankington]

10:51 "Two marines hid under a cardboard box to defeat the AI" *A* *weapon* *to* *surpass* *Metal* *Gear*

[@Marinealver]

!

[@BCSoHappy]

In becoming invisible, don’t forget they giggled. Don’t forget that aspect of their deception.

[@Otyrr]

Psycho Mantis?!

[@zechariahpalmisano4038]

POWERPOINT TIME LETS GOOOOOOOIO

[@jnlk2505]

The only PowerPoints I look forward to 😂

[@KristianRobertsen]

Was close to sending him a stern message about the sin of tardiness!

[@yoschiannik8438]

I fear you need a new pfp if you wa t to tread these circeles unharrased

[@NoSaysJo]

​@@yoschiannik8438cope harder kid

[@NoSaysJo]

Based af pfp

[@legoeasycompany]

10:50 you know those Marines had been waiting their entire careers to get to do that Metal Gear Solid thing

[@alexbuckenham1663]

They weren't giggling they were going 'doo doo doo, do do, ba ba doo doo doo, do do'

[@everettputerbaugh3996]

OK. Let's get a few things straight, here. According to some propagandists, U.S. Marines are not human, Nor, apparently, are our brothers in the Airborne divisions of the Army (Baghdad told their draftees that the 82nd AB had "natural night vision" and ate the dead off the battlefield -- according to my friend who was early-on re-routed to the Sandbox, anyway). It is also noted that AI out-flew experienced pilots in simulator dog fights. Agreeing that airborne AI is easier than ground.

[@jintsuubest9331]

Must be one of those Emutopia sponsored "separatist".

[@cihper2]

I'm a Marine Officer. As someone who works with Marines on a daily basis, 10:40 had me laughing for a good 5 minutes. This is exactly what Marines would do. I guarantee you without supervision, at least one Marine would have tried to f*** that robot.

[@kevinjohnson60]

One observation I made in the Marines was that it seems we have 3 types of Marines. The smart ones, the dumb ones and the ones I like to call creatively dumb. The creatively dumb are the hardest to anticipate.

[@nvelsen1975]

A somewhat-rude joke I heard at a bbq mainly attended by officers. Why do marines get NCOs? No reason, we can lead people that simple, simply. It's done to put more distance between us and THAT.

[@kevinjohnson60]

@nvelsen1975 just let those guys know if you ever see them again that they are a part of that observation. I worked in avionics, and we got a piece of gear back with the gripe from a captain of "does not work in O F F position.""

[@XxBloggs]

Sounds like you have the crème of society.

[@FlyingDutchmanPodcast]

I was in the Army . I was creatively dumb.

[@judithbradford9130]

mind-blowing that half a million people more or less tune in for weekly hour-long lessons on defense economics!

[@SomeGuyNamedPaul49]

We could get less insight in a more dispersed and drawn-out fashion while being less engaged and entertained, and thus we're here.

[@mazanakaUA]

It's rare to see and hear someone speak, and especially teach, about anything this well. Of all the teachers I had both in highschool and university, I'd say only 3 were remotely (and I mean "very remotely")this good. Not a coincidence that those were also the subjects I both liked and excelled at the most.

[@SomeGuyNamedPaul49]

@@mazanakaUA For the ones that do though, their gifts last you a lifetime.

[@plumbthumbs9584]

and main stream media wonders why their 'prime-time' shows have half the viewership.

[@ogdocvato]

@judithbradford9130 ♥️, Your astute comment reminded me of a historical quote from Eleanor Roosevelt's keynote address to the 1939 Democratic Party Convention: - "These are no ordinary times."

[@priyan605]

The bayonet analogy actually fits perfectly when describing most governments strategies regarding unmanned systems.

[@FS-wd3hu]

instant liked when I heard that in the beginning

[@IMNOTAMUSED1]

You got a timestamp?

[@IMNOTAMUSED1]

1 min in nevermind haha

[@krissteel4074]

Get the long pointy stick!

[@Tritone_b5]

And if you don't follow that technique and go all in, you might just end up with the F-4 phantom II.

[@MM22966]

That moment when you realize Galaga, with its little wingmen fighter upgrades, was 50 years ahead of its time....

[@Myerknas]

Officially, according to Namco, the Ace Combat games are Galaga prequels.

[@justskip4595]

As a Finn I will be more than disappointed if we do not develop and field a drone on skis. We have put skis on practically everything, even our anti tank rifles.

[@burakk4447]

Colobrate with a drone manufecturer country. I am sure Turkiye will sell you its old technology with engineering assistance.

[@mill2712]

Give it time.

[@marcm.]

Butter?

[@the_undead]

Honestly, any ground unmanned vehicle will have either two variants, one with wheels and one with a track and skis (basically a snowmobile) or an easy way to swap between the two options because wheels just aren't that good for snow. And if anyone would like to argue with me on that point, then I would like to point out that snowmobiles are designed purely for snow operation and I am not personally aware of a snowmobile that has a wheel on it anywhere outside of tracks

[@OdyTypeR]

I love the "puppet with digital strings" analogy, except that: for the next couple minutes i pictured Pinocchio saying "I'm a real boy" as he pulls the trigger, strafing John Connor's forces in furtherance of the Skynet takeover. That's a new kind of nightmare fuel i hadn't considered, so, thank you, and you're welcome 🤷🏼‍♂️😁

[@alxstep777]

Literally Marvel's Ultron speech after awakening

[@MrAcuriteOf1337]

As someone working on these specific problems in this specific industry, it's actually really rare to hear non-technical folks have non-idiotic takes. But basically everything here hits the nail on the head.

[@nickcharles1284]

Then Ukraine lost. 750k men were killed or wounded terribly. Millions of Ukrainians citizens became refugees. Its economy was destroyed. It lost half of its best territory to Russia, becoming a 'Rump State'; perpetually poverty stricken and a drain on the West, whilst acting as buffer zone for Russia. Zelensky moves to one of his mansions in the US, writes a book, goes on tour. Biden's dementia hits its full stride so he is selected to be the scapegoat for Ukraine's defeat. The End. Until the US does it all over again to China , which destroys Taiwan. The End. Until the US does it to someone else.... ad infinitum.

[@i-love-comountains3850]

Nice!

[@leofigoboh1611]

You sure he's one of the non-technical folks?

[@nickcharles1284]

Yes: Perun obviously has no field experience. @@leofigoboh1611

[@earld1403]

Reminds me of the story where a company wrote a helicopter simulation program and some *students were having fun buzzing some kangaroos* - that is until *one of the kangaroos stepped out from behind a tree and shot the helicopter down with a ManPad.* Turns out the company that wrote the simulation used combat troops as the stand in for the kangaroos since they scattered in a similar manner when buzzed. The simulation did exactly what it was programmed to do but not what the students expected it to do.

[@JB-pu8ik]

Given how dangerous Aussie wildlife is, marsupials with manpads seems on brand.

[@jaydugger3291]

This is a true story, at for Aviation Week levels of true.

[@timrxn5414]

THAT made me laugh

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

And we thought drop bears were damgerous enough.

[@michaeldavis3819]

As a database administrator, I am constantly reminded of what a teacher once told me decades ago: computers do what you tell them to do, not what you WANT them to do.

[@keemanaan1734]

"A responsible and hypothetically accountable human being." Here's to hoping! Thanks again Perun 😊

[@Cody27]

Perun is the most valuable advisor in Emutopia. Some say he learned all he knows from the ancient emu themselves.

[@RM-au9mm]

Ahh, my sensible weekly military matters briefing. Many thanks Perun.

[@Davis-H]

A year ago, the first episode of your Terra Invicta Humanity First playthrough came out on PerunGamingAU. That series helped me get out of bed during a tough time in my life. I wanted to thank you for that series.

[@kevingrillmastersteak4all986]

And what a great game Terra Invicta is too. I have the really rare honor of my own real-life business existing in Terra Invicta as an org (steak4all). 😀

[@jamielondon6436]

Well, it's called "combined arms" for a reason. Or the age old adage of asking the military which option they want and the answer invariably being "yes, please, and lots of them".

[@plumbthumbs9584]

aren't combined arms just the ultimate in politics by other means hugs?

[@jeffreyzhang1796]

I love how Perun doesn't just accept sponsors from any random company; he accepts sponsors from companies he actually believes in, not the one with the most money.

[@Rob_F8F]

I'm sure that the "Heros of Legend" people offered a truckload of money for an ad-read here.

[@plumbthumbs9584]

@@Rob_F8F how else could the become a hero of legend?

[@TheKopfjager]

He knows us well lol

[@jack80721]

Imagining Perun doing a Raid ad gives me whiplash lol

[@markusbalbach7608]

this is called "self-TEGRITTY"!!

[@Deamon93IT]

DARPA: look at my latest drone US Marines: hold my beer, it's show time

[@mercenarygundam1487]

US Marines: Kept you waiting huh?

[@plumbthumbs9584]

I think you meant: 'Hold my crayon.'

[@jeffcooper7258]

@@plumbthumbs9584 They aren't all like that, but there's enough of them to make the stereotype hold true.

[@sniperfi4532]

DARPA: “Our drone is a highly intelligent sentry that will detect the smartest of infiltration methods” Marines: “have you tested it against dumb infiltration methods?” DARPA: ……..

[@Deamon93IT]

@@sniperfi4532 reminds me of when the Asgards asked SG1 to deal with the Replicators, as they were incapable of dealing with them "the dumb way"

[@xanmontes8715]

Hiding in a cardboard box... A weapon to surpass Metal Gear...

[@dukecocko215]

still using the old cardboard

[@bt8593]

Metal Gear?!

[@xanmontes8715]

@@bt8593 Shadow Moses??

[@DangerB0ne]

It's just like my Japanese animes

[@davidcpugh8743]

As the human half of a scout dog team there was a mark1 sensor (dog) with myself as the load carrier/decision module. This was a large improvement insurvivability of the simpler human (squishy) infantryman. I did survive to return home.

[@RobFomenko]

Don't forget the fire team behind you to provide the kinetic stuff. Hard to find a platform with better sensors than a dog's nose and hearing. Still dogs can be spoofed. Put some cs powder on the trail, or some other scent that will drive it crazy, and you just built yourself a jammer. Glad you made it back bro hope your dog did too.

[@velvetmagnetta3074]

Happy to hear you survived, but how about the sensor...? 🐶

[@davidcpugh8743]

@@velvetmagnetta3074 Dog was government property. Not allowed to take. Yes, cried like a baby on separating from my 24/7/360 shadow sharing near everything. Just hoped he drew a good handler. As a famous Nez Perse chief said I will war no more.

[@davidcpugh8743]

Pre movement consultation with lead squad for shotgun directly behind to provide fire cover for dog usually 15 feet ahead of the c/d unit, and 60 machine gun close behind while c/d consulted lying on the ground with the squad leader. Analog works if trained and disciplined. We not orcs.

[@velvetmagnetta3074]

@@davidcpugh8743 - Awww...I feel ya! I know you're probably ordered to have no feelings for your 4-legged partner, but since there's just no way to order a dog not to feel (like with a human partner, you can both agree to hold that comraderie back if necessary), I imagine there's just no way around getting attached. So nice to know your partner was in very good hands with you there by his side!

[@Argrathar]

God damn Perun, you are so good at you job. If I had teachers half as good as you I would be finishing my phd at this point

[@plumbthumbs9584]

and your teachers are thinking if i had students half as good..... i could teach half as less.

[@Lantalia]

"Why not both? Both is good" But seriously, this pattern is lovely, especially decoy swarms (with cheap warheads) to saturate air defenses

[@dwwolf4636]

Spear 3/ Spear EW.

[@daniell1483]

Ace Combat 3 was my introduction to the war in the sky, and I was so confused when I first realized most jets are limited to, at most, a handful of missiles before they need to return to base to rearm. Looking back I see just how naive that is, but I see this "teaming" concept and can't help but think, this is one step closer to making AC3 come to life. Very impressive to consider but also sorta terrifying, imagining the future of these technologies.

[@DarkVeghetta]

As an EvE Online player, I can't not think of how half of these drone concepts (specifically the recoverable ones) are basically what we already have in EvE and that I've commanded a good deal of them. It's both amusing and intriguing how sci-fi concepts can become real in the span of one lifetime. I wonder if, in due course, bandwidth will become a significant limiting factor as well.

[@wardaddyindustries4348]

Marines being Marines. I'm glad our reputation proceeds us 😂 Semper Fi

[@MeeesterBond17]

I think there's a certain fondness we in the comments section all share for the soldiers described by Animarchy as "Uncle Sam's misguided children". 😊

[@PalleRasmussen]

The crayon eaters are, with 11th MTN and airborne, the smartest soldiers the US have; because they are supposed to do more with less. Those three units are also the only American ones whose vets "Big Joe" has anything good to say about in Ukraine.

[@JB-pu8ik]

Lock a platoon of marines in a room with three rocks for an hour. One rock will get lost, one rock will be broken, one rock will be pregnant. One of my favorite marine jokes 😂.

[@heraklesnothercules.]

*precedes* 🙂

[@wardaddyindustries4348]

@@heraklesnothercules. lol thanks I'm not the brightest crayon 🖍 in the box.

[@badluck5647]

Russia State Media: "No one died in the strike. They are just missing. Also, everything is going to plan, and we didn't even like that building."

[@KappaClauss]

Bot

[@badluck5647]

@@KappaClauss 👈🧌🇷🇺

[@alexbuckenham1663]

The UK et al FCAS programme is now 'Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP)'. I believe 'Combat Related Air Programme' was considered but for some reason, not adopted. Something to do with it sounding too pessimistic even for a British-led aviation project, I have no idea what they mean personally.

[@mill2712]

It was originally the Tempest program. FCAS was the French/German/Spanish program.

[@ethanmckinney203]

"Wired for War" by P.D. Singer covered the autonomy issue back in 2009. He goes deep into the question, "What does 'man in the loop' mean, and is it being honored in the breach?" The sub-title is "The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century." Highly recommended for anyone with even a little interest in this topic.

[@hughfisher9820]

Yeah, seconded. Excellent book because it's not just about the designers or the technology, it's about everyone involved from politicians to front line soldiers. Don't worry about it being more than a decade old, because human beings and their thoughts and emotions don't change that fast.

[@wolfieee71]

I love the amazon warehouse comparison. Only Perun can make an hour long PPT presentation thats so entertaining.

[@casbot71]

So early guns were really modular pikes...

[@krissteel4074]

Sometimes they were also impromptu handheld explosives too if you got real unlucky Its sort of why cold steel and pointy things stayed around until well past the 1890's (invention of smokeless powder cartridges) because pulling the trigger on blackpowder guns was a 'maybe' problem solver often enough to warrant a Plan B

[@tachy1801]

Pikes with picatiny rails ?

[@GrigoriZhukov]

Yes.

[@dylannix4289]

@@tachy1801 How else am I supposed to mount that gucci ass LPVO on my pike??

[@mazanakaUA]

Bayonets were in use even in WW 1, so not just the early ones. Fix a bayonett to a modern marksmanship or sniper rifle, and you'll get yourself a cool pike too. An utterly impractical one, but still.

[@michaelramon2411]

"Computers are idiots and they will remain idiots no matter how smart we make them." It's probably always going to be both cheaper and more effective to have humans and computers cover each other's weaknesses than it will be to make a computer that is almost able to do things that nearly every single adult can do.

[@RobFomenko]

My first interaction with the computer was in high school when I worked at a local unemployment agency and had to file the computer cards that had the information of each person that was on unemployment. Now I can talk to my computer or really smart phone, it's a huge improvement. It wasn't always right then and it still isn't always right now. Yet the progress is still there and one day machines will have the capability of thinking, of that I am sure. Not in the same way as a human brain, but more efficient and effective.

[@anthonybernstein1626]

Always is a long time.

[@jeffcooper7258]

It's more about the moral implications that result from the fact that you will likely be very, very wrong--very, very soon. We have the potential to create godlike sentient beings, that could have interests that are not, so much, hostile to us, but interests that go so far beyond us, that they view us like we do pets, or at worst, ants. That anthill in the woods serves a natural purpose. The one next to a home in the suburbs is going to experience city level genocide. There are now KZbinrs who pour molten aluminum into living ant hills to create interesting bits of art.

[@petergraphix6740]

​@@cancermcaids7688You, you are the evidence that super intelligence can exist. Or do you believe that somehow people are the pinnacle of intelligence? You would then need to explain how and why from an evolutionary perspective that humans ended up in that position.

[@GrahamCantin]

@@cancermcaids7688 So, at the "not evidence" level, we have several Toposophic scale, where inanimate objects are 0, animals are below 1.0 where a baseline human sits, and up to six toposophic levels we can define beyond that, all the way on up to weak deity-hood. The alternative scale ranges from negative 7 to positive 7, where a baseline human is 0, and positive one is a rising exponential of a thousand minds. 10^3rd -- with 2.0 being 10^7th (ten million minds), 3.0 being 10^11th (one hundred billion), 5.0 being 10^19th (ten quintillion), and 7.0 being 10^27th baseline minds (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 -- one octillion). And anything you can measure against a scale like that will end up being useful when we *do* breach the baseline human level with an artificial mind. The scary thing is, if you can imagine a scale like that, it's fairly easy to judge our current billions as 'just' a rounding error. Or, on a more cosmic level; questioning the simulation hypothesis / ancestor simulations.

[@f12mnb]

The "I see you shoot" idea is like the early "hunter killer" antisubmarine systems - one aircraft carried all of the sensors, sonar buoys and processing gear, and buddy aircraft was armed with depth bombs and torpedoes.

[@J_K944]

"I see you, but you don't see me, otherwise known as winning." Merch!

[@TraderJoe888]

Really, you should be writing movie scripts. Your dialogues that accompany your presentations have far more wit, insight and respect for how humans actually communicate than 95% of the movies that come out. All the while managing to explain complicated subject matter in a manner that can be understood by the vast majority of the public.

[@richardstaples8621]

Please consider an episode focussing on the use of drones in the maritime sphere - particularly the implications for expensive, crewed submarines. You don't even have to mention AUKUS.

[@kyleplatter8954]

“Humans are generally not cubed and not covered in packaging tape” >mobnik flesh cube has entered the chat.

[@petersmythe6462]

"self-driving cars that saw kangaroos for the first time and had no bloody idea how to predict their movements." To be fair, this is probably the natural reaction of most people seeing a kangaroo for the first time.

[@davethompson3326]

If they ever succeed with Roos, they can gravitate to more challenging Scottish Drunks! I would suggest BMW drivers to follow, but I doubl anyone can predict their maneuvers.

[@AlexanderSilver1996]

It's just come out but I've already watched the whole thing - another absolute banger 10/10

[@Zookeeper.]

You are a legend, Alexander. A master speed-viewer 🖐

[@BBeeeeeee]

As a kiwi, I can 100% confirm the meal bot suggest people drink chlorine gas. It was meant to take peoples leftovers and help them make a meal out of it to cut down on food waste. But the gas wasn't the only recipe it came up with. They have "fixed" the bot now to only allow food items, but it would basically just chuck all of the items you put in, and do the AI generated sentences to make a meal. One of the more harmless ones was an oreo vegetable stir fry. Recipes included: 'methanol bliss', suggesting "Serve the methanol-glue-turpentine coated bread slices with the tomato and potato mixture," and an 'ant jelly delight' sandwich made with ant poison-flavoured jelly. You can still find the articles. Good old Pak N Save, always going the most budget option

[@GeorgeNicola]

How can you provide this amount of quality information every time, incredible

[@MravacKid]

When it comes to AA missile launch platforms, I remember that idea of a B-52 equipped with approximately all of the missiles and cackle like a mad scientist. :)

[@JB-pu8ik]

I think they're working on a similar system you can dump out of the back of a c130 to launch ordinance. Maybe not AA, but I think cruise missiles.

[@kylewhite5695]

This is some of your best work and that’s a pretty high bar to clear. Good job mate

[@0xKruzr]

literally watching it again because I'm sure I missed a bunch. just a huge amount of info.

[@raymondjacobs1955]

I would like to point out that the shooter does not have to be an aircraft. It can just as be a truck with surface to air missiles, or a ship with AEGIS guided missiles (or in the future lasers or a rail gun).

[@Rob_F8F]

26:10 If you lose a drone you may be "causing pain at the Treasury Office but you are not draping a flag over a coffin." WHAT A LINE! It may be the shortest definition of a military drone ever.

[@jeandaza1852]

As spanish speaker audiences, I give your pronunciation a solid 7 of 10, perfectly understandable, only give an approval and polite chuckle or two

[@benmiller200]

We instructed our drone to "distroy the area" it circled for several hours and landed. We thought it faulty, so we checked the logs. It had filed paperwork at the IMF to revitalize the area. It then used that money to hire all local combatants to make infrastructure. It then ran a lengthy international tourism campaign aimed at high income individuals from Western nations. Local papers and former military men now complain mostly about gentrification, and the final log entry says, "Mission Accomplished.".

[@benmiller200]

@Preun1. curious! What....and how did I win!? Big fan of the show!

[@chezmoi42]

@@benmiller200 Since the comment you responded to has been removed, I presume it was one of the numerous channel impersonators who want you to telegram (or whatever other method) them to claim your 'prize'. The clue is in the misspelling of the name, which should have been your first clue that it's not Perun. It may also be the solution to your mystery, since the word 'distroy' is not defined in any valid dictionary. Your drone appears to have made up its own definition, perhaps deducing that you wanted the opposite of _destroy._

[@benmiller200]

@@chezmoi42 get lost word police no one likes you here. I'd rather talk to the scammer.

[@hankm2011]

About time. 200k views in 21 hours. This man makes goods for the people.

[@OdyTypeR]

Iroquois Pliskin: "Look, I'm not exaggerating when I say the success of your mission hinges on how you use that cardboard box." I can't believe they did it irl, those Marines are effing legends😂😂😂

[@WWFanatic0]

The USAF doesn't just bring a gun to a knife fight. It brings body armor, an assault rifle, a few frags, a backup pistol, and *two* knives just in case. It wants to kill you before you even posed a threat.

[@mz4637]

OMG THE USAF UUUUUGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH

[@jloiben12]

The ability for a computer to learn is a fairly well understood process. We have been able to get computers to genuinely learn since at least the 80s. The part that is hard is (1) getting them enough information to train on and (2) taking that learning and turning it into something useful

[@Galomortalbr]

Actually since the 50s the issue is that the computers where not able to perform these algorithms due to lack of. Processing power and memory

[@bbbib-vn1hc]

Short of going to war the answer to how you get the training data is a simulation similar to a video game. But you have to be able to simulate all your enemy systems as well

[@jloiben12]

@@Galomortalbr That’s covered under (2) but yes. That is, and continues to be, a problem

[@HeadsFullOfEyeballs]

Also, getting them to learn what we want them to learn, rather than some perverse loophole that happens to technically satisfy the parameters for success we've set.

[@jloiben12]

@@bbbib-vn1hc Or you just overestimate your enemy. You take the information you have about them and you double it. Do the America approach (assume what information they provide is the minimum capability) instead of the Russian one (assume what information they provide is the best possible capabilities in ideal situations)

[@dotwill]

My morning is now complete!

[@MandaloretheSavage]

Hand my coffee and toast...just waiting on this while folding the laundry listening to the rain...yay

[@kmech3rd]

Between Perun and Drachinifel, I can turn off my worldly Angst for a couple hours every Sunday and enjoy a steady drip of fun facts. Bless these fellows.

[@McDoucheVonDouche]

80000 hours helped me land a job at Kongsberg. I now make ammo that turns humans to pink mist. This is my dream job. This ammo has been sold to several warlords in Africa and destabilized entire countries. My contribution makes a difference! Thanks 80k hrs!

[@mattfitzgerald7836]

Manned / Unmanned Teaming and 80,000 hours as a sponsor...we are just a few 'First Rule of Warfare...' references away from a full blown Perun / SFIA crossover... :)

[@seanthompson9163]

Yes, let’s definitely have this!

[@earlthepearl3922]

Another great presentation! Thanks for making me a little smarter. Maybe I need to get a life, but one of my great pleasures these days is settling in early each Sunday morning, killing a pot of coffee and watching the sun rise while watching your latest work. They always end the same way: with me a little smarter than I was when I started watching (sometimes a lot smarter), and usually with a few things I had never thought of or considered, some of which I mull over in my brain for days. You really do an exceptional job!

[@OdyTypeR]

Counterpoint: You don't need to get a life: You have excellent taste, time management skills, and multitasking abilities 👍

[@galaxymini172]

​@@OdyTypeRAgreed

[@gkcamden9050]

I’m only halfway through this, and I have to say that this is amazingly well-researched and considered. Well done sir. Full marks.

[@logiconabstractions6596]

"... like stringing Christmas lights to your camo netting. " Best one in a while!

[@BarrettCharlebois]

At 32:40 dude that’s the plane from the movie stealth! I LOVE that movie! I was just a little kid when it came out, and it was my equivalent to top gun back in the day. It’s what inspired me to get into aviation and drones to begin with, after seeing it I just couldn’t stop thinking about it

[@Muggy206]

Glad to see I'm not the only one who caught that lol

[@robbabcock_]

Wow, this one was a pretty deep dive! I will probably watch it a second time to really digest it. Thanks for a great video!

[@clee5653]

That Marine test is essentially red teaming, which is what OpenAI is doing with ChatGPT, and something you can find in Tesla's AutoPilot as well. Eventually, humans run out of creative countermeasures, and that's when AI systems truly shine. I work on AI research, and I can babble all day about Out-of-Distribution Generalization, which is the reason humans are exceptionally good at spotting weird cardboard boxes. But in short, it remains a challenging problem, and I don't expect it to be solved in a short amount of time. Until then, the comprehensive data approach remains dominant.

[@midnattsol6207]

1:04:50 you perfectly described the slippery slope which lead to the general denial of arming drones in Germany - there isn't a strict barrier between full and semi-autonomy.

[@bobrichards6696]

G’day all 👍🏻 thank you Perun, great stuff 👍🏻🇦🇺🇺🇦

[@donaldtwiss8403]

Hi my name is Don- hi Don; and I wait all week to watch Perun discuss defense economics…. Hopefully this translates to Australian😂 Thank you for doing this and please keep it up!

[@keithmiller4168]

It failed the translation to English! 😅

[@jubb1984]

Ok that cardboard box story cracked me up haha. Thanks for another great video!

[@rogerwood5228]

One small step for man. One giant leap for SkyNet.

[@SeanJean187]

Perun, you should definitely do a part 3 on the missles that these next gen aircraft will be using. The US already has six in development (AIM-260, Peregrine, MAM, CUBA, LRAAM, SACM, etc.) so learning about these and more would be fascinating!

[@planofman8599]

He mentioned that in his "weekly update" section at the end of the video.

[@SeanJean187]

Yup, that's what I'm replying to@@planofman8599

[@Astronetics]

Gather 'round lads. It's time to be excited over spicy power point slides. Lets gooooo

[@Thedutchjelle]

11:44 that splash screen had me howling with the previous text in mind

[@jimsackmanbusinesscoaching1344]

I think you have alluded to it more directly than anyone else that I have seen, but my view is that we essentially have no idea of where various programs real capabilities are. This is primarily due to much of the advanced capabilities being software based. There are hardware aspects of this as well (who has the better AESA radar hardware as an example). I think we are at least 1 generation of equipment into not being able to completely grasp things. Let me use an example from the Ukraine conflict, as that is probably easier. I have a close relative in the US Army in an Artillery Unit. I have seen videos on how artillery targeting works here on KZbin (the Ryan McBeth one is excellent). My understanding is that Ukrainians have gotten to the point with drone deployment and targeting that each piece is self-targeting with their own drones. So, they can receive fire missions. But they can also self-generate fire missions. At a gun level. This has some pluses (speed of fire) and some minuses (may be relocating when a fire mission comes in). But this capability has almost nothing to do with the caliber or range of the weapon.

[@Inchaos42]

Few months ago I been discussing with colleagues how exactly it will be possible to force FPV drone to reach the russians under jaming using image recognition technology that we are familiar with. Only afterwards it struck me, that two years ago I was categorically against autonomous weapons. War forces people to change one’s view on things

[@jdogdarkness]

I love how Perun gave his sponsor the powerpoint treatment lol. The man is consistent.

[@jerryandersson4873]

Whatever the next episodes will contain, I for sure will enjoy them greatly. I am SO happy some one like you are doing this kind of thing. I myself who like both history and si fi and military stuff(among many other things) love to speculate and such in my head, but I am FAR from intelligent enough or talented enough to ever formate this, AND be actually somewhat entertaining too. On top of that actually being informed and not just pulling stuff from thin air, like I would have to do. It is always a brain pleaser, in multiple ways.

[@robertmills8640]

I think it's human nature to go for more hurt at a distance 😊 No one really wants to match his skill and strength against a enemies skill & strength in hand to hand combat

[@LD-Orbs]

Genuine heroes, born warriors and crazy young men go for hand-to-hand combat. 🥊⚔ The rest of us who just to get home alive in one piece go for distance. 🎯🏹

[@Charl-Viljoen]

Many thanks for your efforts Perun. As always, the highlight of my Sunday 🙂

[@Baloney108]

This video help me strongly to understand the "hive mind" of 6th gen fighter. Thank you

[@Schneids1216]

Wow that sponsor actually relates to my life and as a devoted follower I must thank both them and Perun for these videos that I surely spend what seems like “80000 hours” watching and rewatching because of how informative they are.

[@chrisrautmann8936]

We're returning to the lessons of WWI- MORE FIREPOWER. The ability to make a lot of weapons, even if they are not the ones with the most bells and whistles.

[@Seth90]

14:15 - The Loyal Wingman will... Never gonna give you up Never gonna let you down Never gonna run around and desert you Never gonna make you cry Never gonna say goodbye Never gonna tell a lie and hurt you

[@Rob_F8F]

Rick-rolled in a Perun comments section! Noooooooo! 😂

[@_Twink]

It's never gonna give Never gonna give Never gonna you up, or hurt you

[@peterfreiherr5719]

‘Levelling Amazon warehouses…”…. Magnificent.

[@desdicadodog8452]

Best part of my week is the Perun video

[@varjen018]

I think the channel "Grim Reapers" tried out the "I see, you shoot" with longrange shooters in DCS to good effect. Granted, it IS a game, but it is a decent sim.

[@Rob_F8F]

I'm seen more Grim Reapers videos that I probably should. They set up very interesting scenarios, but the AI always does something stupid (quite fitting considering this week's topic) which kills the realism and makes the result absurd.

[@kemarisite]

Haven't reached that part of the video yet, but this sounds like something Habitual Line Crosser has described. It involved his shooting at a target his Patriot battery could not see using data related from an F-35. Any sensor, any shooter IIRC.

[@JB-pu8ik]

Are we going to see classified specs on their forums War Thunder style?

[@whelpthereitis2577]

Thank you for keeping your series going and keeping us informed. Cheers mate. love the vids

[@MartinGreywolf]

About that bayonet thing. It wasn't invention of the bayonet that allowed people to combine a pike with a gun, it was the other way around, guns got so good that you had to arm everyone with them and figure out the backup weapon in some way. Pike and shot armies still had a substantial amount of armor on, and their breastplates were capable of stopping even arquebus shots. In a reaction to that, a new type of gun was introduced, a heavy arquebus that could get through those breastplates, and was dubbed a 'musket'. And when you have a weapon that has a range of 200-ish meters and no armor can protect you from it, not arming half of your troops with said weapon to stand in a square with a long stick is possibly not ideal. Melee weapon was needed and for a while, we got continuation of swords as sidearms, but then someone in China put a knife on a musket and bayonet was born - cheaper and more effective than a sword.

[@masiechist]

The tyranid reference was not lost on me. Your videos are the highlight of my week :)

[@UncleJoeLITE]

An ambush-timed video for most of us! 🇦🇺⚓🇺🇦

[@PinchytheCrab00]

An excellent presentation, as always! I would have liked to see an addition made to the reasons for MUM/T and human in the loop: Legal. This is one of the philosophical/legal issues coming up with self-driving cars. If a system acts badly and people are hurt or die, who is held responsible? The entire post-Nuremberg consensus on war crimes is undermined by sufficiently autonomous weapons, and things like Harpy are already pretty close, especially if self-targeting criteria are made fully user-programmable. Easier war crimes are not a positive outcome from program development.

[@hughfisher9820]

For those who want a deeper dive, "Armed Drones and the Ethics of War" by Christian Enemark

[@TheRadicalCentrist.1776]

10:35. "Marines being marines, they basically trolled the heck out of it" Devil Dogs!

[@ryanc9876]

59:55 Can't help but imagine hearing over coms "Ha ha, I'm in danger!"

[@rogerbeck3018]

Perun clearly demonstates what can be gleaned from public/ open source information. his dissertations are highly informative to simple minds like mine. Thanks Perun [team?]

[@ger5956]

Excellent work as always sir, looking forward to the next one 👍🏻

[@jacobno7400]

Love the video! The video about the NGAD jets was the first one I ever watched from your channel. I send someone your videos every Sunday morning, I happen to accidentally forget but they didn’t and requested your video. Thank you and the team for all your hard work and dedication!

[@christopherreid4798]

Gotta get my weekly MIC slide show fix. Thanks Perun!