Concord Hasn't Derailed Live Service, Bandai Namco Struggle & More! | Triangle Squared Ep. 365

[@bigbox1431]

OH HELL YES! Something to consider that I've seen nobody talk about... In May of 2022 and May of 2023, PlayStation published two charts showing projected market size of Live Service vs Full Priced Games over the next 6 years. Not only does PlayStation believe that the Live Service market is growing at a pretty sizeable clip, but they also see that the single player market is shrinking at a pretty scary clip too. They do not see the single player market plateau. Both years, their market research forecasted atrophy in SP. PlayStation can't afford to quit on Live Service. The big fish gets nervous in an evaporating pond.

[@ihavenonameforyou1]

The biggest issue is that the market is not going to constantly grow like those companies expect. People choose a game and stick to it and when there are multiple live serve games the competition is fierce and those who love their game won't leave it. Unlike single player games where someone can buy it and play it or they can buy the game and wait a while to play it, such option is not possible for live service games as they will die eventually so the purchase is never justified if you won't play it.

[@bigbox1431]

You can't really afford to do business that way. Consider, the problem you described above (players stick with one game) has always been there since the birth of Live Service multiplayer. Ultima Online was successful in 1997 and it's players largely stuck with it as their one game. Now look at how insane it would have been to use your argument in 1997. The Live Service market has grown 100x (likely more) since 1997. All these companies know is that the single player games market is likely shrinking at an alarming rate and Live Service multiplayer is still growing at a steady clip. If games take 5 or 6 years to make, it's better to aim for a target that's getting larger rather than a target that's getting smaller. Star Wars Outlaws bombing commercially was, IMO, a bigger tell that the market is shifting than Concords colossal failure.

[@NARTECH]

I think you could definitely be right about Outlaws, but I also think it's indicative of teams for SP games getting bloated and costly, while being less efficient and arguably more ineffective, which leads to an issue of the budgets ballooning while the market for them hasn't grown, as you say. But I think the market has shrunk, in large part, due to this type of development leading to less interesting games and less risky ideas out of a fear of needing to appeal to the largest market while also raking 6 years to make because of the inefficiency of development where hundreds of employees spend up to half their day in meetings trying to keep everyone on the same page. You might be right that SP inevitably dies by nature of a disappearing market but I'm curious to see some these long time devs leaving to create their own, more personal AA-AAA studios, come out with games and see if a return to reasonable budgets, more streamlined development, and the ability to take more risks can rebuild some of that market.

[@NARTECH]

Also, I honestly don't believe Sony should cede that ground, definitely not so easily. But I want to see them find the right people and ideas to support this without digging into talent with interests outside of live service ideas. Thankfully, they seem to be doing that, it just takes time to see if it pans out for them. Concord and the now closed team unfortunately didn't, but that is one example with many to come! - B