This Strategy Breaks "Rock, Paper, Scissors"

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95% Win Rate vs. ZJC Strategy: • 95% Win Rate vs. ZJC S...
RPS Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
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Patrons:
- Skeptical 7th
- Alex Hackman
- nickymigs
- Amanda M
Special Thanks:
- Skeptical 7th
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Sources
- Zhejiang University Paper arxiv.org/pdf/1404.5199v1.pdf
- Inside the Competitive World of Rock Paper Scissors priceonomics.com/the-world-of...
- RPS Game Website www.rpsgame.org/
- Asking 100 people to pick randomly from 1-10: / asking_100_people_for_...
- Asking 8,500 people to pick randomly from 1-10: / asking_over_8500_stude...
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0:00 Intro
1:34 Part I: Humans are bad at being random
4:32 Part II: Good RPS players know how to exploit our "randomness"
6:23 Part III: Testing the ZJC strategy
11:47 Part IV: The ZJC is good...but not perfect
14:09 Part V: Competitive RPS strategies
16:23 Part VI: Conclusion
#mattmignogna #rockpaperscissors #strategy

[@nachochips8090]

Shout out to Jimmy's mom for making those good brownies

[@Filet64]

The real MVP

[@bober4657]

Jimmy's mom has got it going on

[@Eatitup_yup]

Mmm tasty

[@Eatitup_yup]

😂

[@SamBrickell]

I gotta be honest though, if Derrick Henry wants to play with me at my house, I'm giving him the best controller. :)

[@thekinglydragon]

I always tell my opponent that I "call rock." This strange strategy of letting them know ahead of time what I'm going to pick throws people off. The think, there is no way he would actually go rock after he told me he would, so they never choose paper. I than choose rock and greatly increase my chance of winning

[@Hadi73142]

Interesting

[@alexisdelangel13]

I used to do this exact thing. Now I just ask them what they are going to throw.

[@mcscronson]

Came here just to share this same strat!

[@NotaPlagueDoctor300]

i used this strategy except i dont actually pick what im gonna say.. alot of the times, people use reverse psychology which ended up on me losing.. I tell them i pick rock, but then pick paper. Telling them that i'll pick rock immediatly imputs to their brains that they shouldn't pick scissors, hence why most people would go for rock or paper. If i pick paper, its either a draw or a win.. most of the time people pick rock because they think that it gives them the less risk. But it ended up making them lose.. I met someone doing your strategy, and whatever option they tell, i'll pick the one that beats it. Lets say they say "I'll pick rock" in advance before playing.. I'll immediatly counter with "Then i'll pick paper" This confuses them and they dont know what to do, but in the end its the same, they will either pick rock risking outsmarting you, or picking paper to have less chance of losing.. Either way whichever they pick, You'll win if you pick paper 70% of the time.

[@coolboy8339]

Take 2 players who watched this video then make them play rock paper scissors to break probability.

[@Filet64]

Very proud of this video. I also haven't put out a "real" conjecture video in a while, so I really like this. I hope you do, too! *Question:* What do you all think of this style of editing/video? I like it a lot because it helps me move through the editing process more holistically and efficiently. But I'm very curious to hear your thoughts :)

[@zellfaze]

It works for me. I liked the style.

[@chiar0scur0]

Editing is great, it's a really good explanation. The only nitpick is: ZJC sounds just as clunky to say as Zhijiang Cycle, and it's less informative.

[@Filet64]

@@chiar0scur0 thanks! And eh yeah it's just a nickname, not terribly important.

[@file4318]

Absolutely loved the editing and research quality. One of the only well researched videos on rps on KZbin. As always, there is always further you can go but you did pretty good.

[@wyattstevens8574]

12:35 Why not go rock here anyway? Cam "knows" to play scissors himself in round 1, so why not counteract it?

[@mehulgoel360]

plot twist: your opponent is also watching this

[@Filet64]

That' when you do what Cam did

[@InkThinks]

This is my favorite video I have seen all year. It’s everything I never knew I needed

[@Filet64]

Glad you enjoyed!

[@1geniusme]

Mmmm, i like me some good data analysis. Keep up the great work. I actually researched the same topic myself but I couldn’t put the same strategy into those simple easily digestible terms, that made it impractical without tons of practice. So ur pretty smart for being able to put in into layman terms like that. Amazing job!

[@Filet64]

Thank you very much!

[@rystaltwo]

What I do that wins like literally every time, (at least for me) is to pick an option that would get killed by your opponents last move. For e.g, if they picked rock, you pick scissors because they would most likely not pick rock again. This would make it so if they pick scissors, its a tie and if they pick paper, you win. I love this strat lol

[@louisng114]

Sometimes, I like to tell my opponent what I am going to use, then use exactly what I said. That usually throws them off and gives me a win. If the match goes on longer, I would mix up telling the truth or lying.

[@Filet64]

that's actually one of the recommended psychological strategies that some players will use!

[@tahkky7838]

What if you mix the ZJC strategy and this one? Say you’re going paper first, and go paper, than lie/tell the truth on random. Not sure how to prove your own randomness in itself in terms of when you’re lying or not. Would be interesting to do an experiment on how saying you’re going to do a move changes the opponent’s chance of response. And how you should combat that. Would this be more effective than the contemporary ZJC method on its own? Sorry if i confused anyone. Sorry im a year late on this thread

[@tahkky7838]

of course this is for casual play

[@Ethyro]

@@tahkky7838 that would work.

[@Eatitup_yup]

Thanks for making this video I am doing a science fair and my project is I play rps learn a strategy then play agian and see if it makes my %s better so this will totally help ty! ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤😊

[@jackcaster6912]

Jimmy’s mom seems chill

[@NawidN]

Well-produced video, and a satisfying in-depth answer.

[@Filet64]

Thank you!

[@IsYitzach]

Also know as "Boulder Parchment Shears" in the universe of "Critical Role." It is good to hear from this channel again.

[@Filet64]

And I'm glad to be making fun stuff again. Thanks for sticking around!

[@GodzillaFreak]

Wouldn't a better strategy be to actively manipulate the opponent in order to use cold reading? For example asking them what they're going to play and telling them what you're going to play in order to trigger predictable responses.

[@jackparker8686]

Rock paper scissors like poker I think also with psychological factors... If losing tendency to pick what? If winning tendency to pick what? If tying tendency to pick what? There can be analysis of this with several trials of unwitting participants

[@giopig8876]

Thank you ❤️

[@renown1301]

Well made video, deserves more views!

[@Filet64]

I think so, too 😂

[@giopig8876]

Thank you

[@roseldagamer]

Now I can finally be the team leader

[@jackparker8686]

There was also with rock paper scissors a chance there is a tell like in poker... Analysis can be made with several trials of unwitting participants

[@ramon8923]

12:35 That guy is an actual Poker professional player, mucho ánimo.

[@SovernGaming]

This video better blow up

[@giopig8876]

Thank you so much for that I had a competition I have rock paper scissors

[@mikieswart]

i like to throw people off by shaking my donut hand in a fist but then play with my other hand edit: i meant dominant hand but i like donut hand too

[@Filet64]

I also prefer donut hand

[@quantumastrologer5599]

thx

[@EllaShartiel]

Awesome video!

[@Filet64]

Thanks!

[@TheChannelOfDR]

Now I'm unstoppable in Sprouts

[@Filet64]

that would be fun to look at too, involving graph theory and everything

[@grazer0197]

thanks its the only one that helped

[@jvandyck87]

I would wonder if there is some way to “randomize” when you repeat your move. Just to keep your opponent more honest as far as them noticing you never repeat moves consecutively.

[@matheuscabral9618]

what I was thinking is you could just use a computer to randomize for you a sequence of numbers with only the digits 1,2 and 3, and memorize it, and use like, 1 for scissors, 2 for paper and 3 for rock or something. That would be harder the more numbers you need to memorize but would be a simple way to make it 50/50 for you and your opponent no matter how good they might be

[@jvandyck87]

@@matheuscabral9618 Well you want to get an edge rather than be 50/50. As being totally random doesn't help you prey on your opponent's lack of randomness. So a combination strategy that allows you to be random when it behooves you, while also being able to use some of the principles laid out in this video to exploit opponents who are exploitable. And to me, using what you said to find a formula of randomly deviating from the strategy laid out in this video so that it's not so easily discernible and beatable. And the most noticeable thing about the strategy in this video is that you will never repeat a move. So having that randomness dictate when you repeat a move instead of playing as the strategy recommends could be just the wrinkle!

[@giopig8876]

Tank you

[@user-su7wx4lt2k]

It's Game Theory applied to Rock Paper Scissors

[@bensflips]

this video is awesome

[@JJWEBHayden]

I always started with paper, yay!

[@farpurple]

when we play we play two games. first is everyone throws scissors and second is final (if not tie)

[@alierk542]

This is a really godtier vid. Thanks my guy

[@Filet64]

Glad you enjoyed!

[@wyattstevens8574]

What if you're playing the "lizard/Spock" extension where lizard beats Spock and paper, and Spock rock and scissors? Is there an analogous strategy? And what about best of 3? (or 7- compare World Series) Numerical representation (RPS for mathematicians): 1. Rock 2. Paper 3. Scissors 4. Spock 5. Lizard Any time there's a non-0 difference (bigger-smaller), bigger wins if it's even and smaller if it's odd.

[@harveyharveys3039]

Banging vid

[@Filet64]

thanks!

[@abdullahbutbetteritisbette7860]

good but I think you should pick rock, scissors, and rock.

[@fbi8836]

i played on the same website and all the players i was facing played the exact same strategy leading to a battle of tricks

[@Hadi73142]

Oooof

[@lazarnikolic65]

I'm curious what happens in paper rock game It's where you have 3 people chosing rock or paper If one chooses differently he loses

[@wyattstevens8574]

What if all 3 are represented?

[@youngchefdaddy3473]

A scholar.

[@Flipflopper071]

So, what should we start off with?

[@Filet64]

well I do mention that in the video. you should watch it!

[@Flipflopper071]

@@Filet64 sorry 😂😂I commented it not realising u already said it 😂

[@Shirokroete]

Yes, I searched for this.

[@Za3rour]

not me watching this right before a work ROCK PAPER SCISSORS tournament. haha Update: I won the tournament hahah

[@Za3rour]

second update: I lost in regionals as in I got SMOKED hahaha

[@file4318]

lol nice

[@noamgaribi4725]

i’m here because ive made a vow to never lose again

[@Filet64]

hope it works out!

[@jaircorreia]

Obrigado pelas dicas!

[@Filet64]

de nada!

[@velosucker9915]

I go rock every time in best 2 out of three, and let the gamblers fallacy allow me to win almost every time.

[@vejolta]

My strategy is to use the exact same throw every time.

[@aaaaaa-aaa]

if its not for 3 win wins youll win

[@giopig8876]

Now l can win thanks for this

[@argsgsgsgnngndg9894]

All you need is a randomizer and be impossible to exploit, period. You can use your watch, it's something poker players do these days.

[@Filet64]

Yes, using a randomizer would make you impossible to exploit. But it also wouldn't give you any sort of competitive advantage

[@argsgsgsgnngndg9894]

@@Filet64 i know, but i find it funny that a total noob can completely negate years of practice and experience from a pro by just looking at their watch :D

[@Filet64]

@@argsgsgsgnngndg9894 that's RPS!

[@thatdude9091]

unless the other person, too, has a watch

[@MKG_]

Hey you, yes you your not the only one who watched this played rps with your parents and lost all 3 rounds

[@Filet64]

Maybe your parents watched this video before you did?

[@MKG_]

@@Filet64 damn it i was too late

[@revyne]

If all people see this video, it will be impossible to win. RPS will be forgotten.

[@groovesan]

IRL, most of the time you play RPS, it's just one game, so all those "back to cycle yada yada" is pretty useless

[@Filet64]

you usually play one game? I usually do best 2 of 3

[@groovesan]

@@Filet64 I see. In soviet russia, it's hystorically is there's only one chance lol

[@ChanceTheCheetah]

Muhahahahaha!!

[@globby7820]

I disagree. The best way to win in rps is showing your friend this video then doing following the same principle, but reversed.

[@DaBTEDI]

3rd

[@jakethemistakeRulez]

Win rock paper scissors with this simple strategy requiring a 17 min video to explain!

[@Filet64]

the strategy is laid out in like 3 minutes and the rest is extra!!!11!1

[@conzzpinz]

69th comment 🤨🤨🤨🤨🤨🤨