Contextualization Within a Framework of Conditional Probabilities · Will Gogolak

EP 276 | Contextualization Within a Framework of Conditional Probabilities | Will Gogolak
As a risk officer with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Will Gogolak was setting margin requirements and saw a wide variety of traders’ accounts and what separated the winning traders from the losing ones, before leaving to pursue his own trading and obtaining a PHD in finance and share his knowledge of quantitative analysis and market experience with students at Carnegie Mellon University. Combining his market experience with knowledge of statistics helps William create his custom buy the dip strategy with futures and leveraged ETFs, and focusing on probabilities and determining market direction for informed trading decisions.
Disclaimer:
Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice.
Topics & Timestamps:
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0:00 Introduction
5:15 Background and experience at the CME
8:28 Raising margin requirements
13:28 Why did oil go below zero in 2020
15:40 Observing traders accounts
23:00 Ways to pick trades
28:18 Quant analysis shown in the charts?
32:15 Tools to get into quant analysis
34:45 Buy the dip methodology
38:30 How often Will gets buy signals
42:00 Contextualization within the framework of conditional probabilities
44:45 COT reports as an indicator of extremes
51:00 Suggestions to traders
52:10 What Will is working on now
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#stocktrading #quantitativetrading #tradingmindset

[@FrozenTundraTrader]

Wil brings up valid points about traditional trader education pitfalls. Finding and developing edge - actual, real edge - is really dependent on the individual trader's goals, risk appetite and profile, time horizons, and other variables. Has nothing to do with indicator crossovers or overbought oversold conditions. Would have been nice to hear more about how newer CME traders Wil observed during his time there, found or developed edge and what that process looked like from a fly on the wall on the inside. Thanks Ian and Wil.

[@junglecat7263]

Thanks for another interesting guest

[@divanshubansal7550]

I liked the insights of the podcast, Thanks for bringing such a wonderful guest.

[@u2b83]

45:30 Classic dk move - you btd at 30, it goes down to 20, so you buy the 2nd dip and so on. My solution? Btb (buy the breakout to the downside using inverse etf), managed via some breakout strategy. In both cases whipsaw/cascading dk moves will slipage you raw. Finally, A breakout is perceptually indistinguishable from a massive dk move. (Arthur C. Clarke) lol

[@hamisintunzwenimana8083]

Good General Big Picture / Fundamental Analysis Quantitive / Technical Analysis

[@JESS-CH]

Great interview!

[@nickk9499]

niiice ! ty

[@vuemeca]

Informative.

[@u2b83]

I've backtested with vix and price action as priors but wasn't impressed. I suspect there are even better priors, namely, retail account balances, margin %, daytrader rule states (

[@TheTradingDesk007]

we miss you aron

[@gordongekko1851]

I am second.

[@mistersmith8962]

did he ever answer the gold question satisfactorily?

[@beforeyourimmigrants8471]

He spent a while answering the initial question and the follow-up questions

[@chris0000924]

No and intentionally was vague about it

[@thetaeater]

Great new perspective. The gold conspiracy theorists must not trade futures there is tiny volume and no liquidity on physically settled contracts. They must be applying the cash settled open interest to the real world. BTW stop losses are for people that don't know how to use option or manage position size. Why would you ever let 1 random price in time effect your action. Stop losses maker brokers rich