Cracking the Code to This Economic Cycle

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9 ай бұрын

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If the unpredictability of this cycle has left you confused, you're not alone.
Since Gerard Minack, director of Minack Advisors, last appeared on Real Vision in April 2022, leading indicators have wrongfooted investors time and time again. If markets have left you with a sense of cognitive dissonance, Gerard says that’s totally understandable.
In this discussion with Raoul Pal, Gerard explores his current macro framework and the contrasting views he's considering in an effort to understand these economic shifts. Recorded on August 14, 2023.
CHAPTERS
1 Why Gerard Is No Longer in the Secular Stagnation Camp 01:55
2 Will We Have Higher Real Rates Going Forward? 0:10:32
3 Higher CapEx Demand and Productivity 0:19:23
4 Where Are We in the Cycle? 0:28:21
5 Why Have Leading Indicators Wrongfooted Investors? 0:34:48
6 Reconciling 2022 vs 2023 Market Performance 0:48:36
7 Gerard's View on China 0:55:53
8 The Takeaways 01:04:07
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Пікірлер: 56

@Mark-hb9xy 9 ай бұрын

So there is a major conflict between the views of Gerard and Rauol. Gerard bleives that interest rates are going ro remain high, whereas Raoul believes that governments and central banks such as in the US, UK and EU will have no choice but to force them down once inflation is squeezed out, because of the sheer size of National Debts and the consequent interest burden. Some other important aspects of Raoul's thesis do depend on this coming to fruition. It would be interesting to see this variance of views explored in more depth.

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching and adding your insights!

@jmc8076 9 ай бұрын

Neither cover the effect of the new digital age/economy that will roll out over next 5-10 yrs esp new digital currencies.

@leonie563 8 ай бұрын

Great job Gerard. Been watching your interviews since old ABC The Business days! Still ballsy. The World drifted to services economies. Now we have robots and Govts carrying the unemployed. Business still wants handouts but it's time for shareholders to stump up. Aged Pensioners to cough up savings. Whether Governments are prepared to pump oldies is the 20bn question. We shall see...

@petermerelis 9 ай бұрын

yep, he is underestimating the deflationary impact of technology/automation/AI.

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@sarahcrowe4602 9 ай бұрын

Agreed, and a lot of people are going to be caught out by thinking they’re at a different point in this next cycle.

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@JasonsIndoorGuide 9 ай бұрын

two geniuses having a high level conversation on the global economy--- such great content !!!!!!

@electrocademyofficial893 9 ай бұрын

Thanks both , exceptional 👌🏼👏🏽

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@theheroformula3630 9 ай бұрын

Great watch!

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@neilmcnamara641 9 ай бұрын

Great economic explanation of future trends !

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@modelmark 9 ай бұрын

Keynsian bullocks: saving leads to stagnation.... savings lead to investment and productivity gains. Women working is progress..... no it's poverty, if children also have to work it is not 'even more participation' and progress or back to normal, it's a sign of poverty

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@hussghazi1 9 ай бұрын

👏👏👏 easy for them to say, but not acceptable for their own wives and kids

@aw5832 8 ай бұрын

Bridges fall down in America? News to me, 59 years on this planet never seen that happen here.

@derekwfrazier 9 ай бұрын

cycles are all different for each market, instrument and stuff like that, but they have commonality. Its a cyclitecnical traders job to identify turning points in each, and using a model makes it possible.

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@user-fp9ed4ji7v 9 ай бұрын

poor gerard looks like he could do with some sleep and holiday. Not much this channel gets right but vaguely amusing.

@RawandCookedVegan 8 ай бұрын

Excellent guest Raoul. Very, very smart.

@benjamindover4337 9 ай бұрын

Very interesting analysis.

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@kenr4186 9 ай бұрын

Very interesting. Thanks.

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@Koort1008 9 ай бұрын

How about an interview with Russell Napier?

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for the suggestion…

@leonie563 8 ай бұрын

Martin North.

@bmo8898 9 ай бұрын

great interview

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@ryanowens179 9 ай бұрын

Global banks will survive higher rates for longer? Only 1 way to find out

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Great question…

@rainman3927 9 ай бұрын

Amazing interview, thank you Raoul

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@Ivan-fo4kx 9 ай бұрын

Always great content

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@NyquistLP 9 ай бұрын

20 year trends for 3 year analysis and 4 month forecasts. heart you guys. multiple timeframe schizophrenia

@aleaiactaest8354 9 ай бұрын

Excellent interview.

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@NathanKlaus38 9 ай бұрын

Let's not forget that the biggest payouts don't come from great performances but Rather it's great promotion's.stay invested, diversification for streams of income is very important with the right skills and proper understanding of how the market works√

@RealVisionFinance 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!