CRITICAL THINKING - Fundamentals: Correlation and Causation

In this Wireless Philosophy video, Paul Henne (Duke University) explains the difference between correlation and causation.
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[@WirelessPhilosophy]

After a short break, WiPhi is back! Sorry it's been a little while! We've been planning new philosophy content, and we're super excited to teach you about it ;) Stay tuned! - The WiPhi Team

[@Y2Kvids]

Wireless Philosophy oh, WiPhi , like Wi-fi. I get it.

[@guillaumebourgault5532]

I can't wait to see part 2. "Correlation is not causation" is easy to get. But it usually leaves you hanging: how does causation gets proven if causation is not enough? This second question usually does not get discussed.

[@erinshields796]

All of it was mostly correlation

[@Hein223]

Go watch the video minute physics made of correlation & causation, he explains the math behind it. This video just says the same thing over and over again

[@KillingAddiction]

@@erinshields796 "All of it was mostly..." Was it all of it or most of it? It can't be both. lol

[@paulibug7260]

False. The part of Andy's brain that is responsible for solving math is in fact solar powered because he is part robot. Therefor, sun is needed for Andy to perform well on his math test.

[@zeki1]

Hahahahaha... And that's how conspiracy theories are born

[@haveyouseenchefplis932]

So fucking true, andy is literally the peak of biological evolution. He craves lights and gain power to complete any task from it. The fact that maria didn't know about this doesn't make the truth any less relevant.

[@IlmiMulhid]

Jaadu

[@poonamramawat7637]

This is what is known as "causal networks" the part when we come to know Andy is part robot

[@Sense6126]

I'm late to the party, and this is a great video. I just started taking a class that raises this issue, and I couldn't remember the difference between correlation and causation. I'm a visual learner, and I deeply appreciate the way you've explained this.

[@daleputnam8300]

Thank you for making these videos. Society would improve greatly if the average citizen understood these things.

[@darkspeed62]

I feel like your video coulld have stopped at 1:34 because you delivered a strong example that nailed it.

[@robertferraro236]

These are brilliant. So perfectly presented and easy to absorb the information.

[@escapetothemoon9069]

I am in the process of studing machine learning. Luckily, I caught your video! It was perfectly explained and easy to understand.

[@futureDK1]

YAY! You guys back?! Thank you, I've always enjoyed your videos & I've watched them all, for fun & to learn & reinforce my knowledge.

[@WirelessPhilosophy]

We're back! ;) Sorry it's been a little while! It's awesome to hear that you've learned so much from our videos. We've been planning new content, so stay tuned!

[@TheAuntieBa]

Do keep in mind that sometimes there are lesser influences. Sunniness stimulates endorphins, which do assist learning; there could be a relationship after all. Just as studying just before sleep assists memory retention.

[@cinderellaamnesia]

An actual hero ❣️ you explained this so well!! Thanks

[@yadidimeanmaine]

Looking forward to the next one! I was thinking about this type of topic recently when on NPR they were talking about how a bunch of shcools in Texas don't teach their students sex-ed and then immediately cited Texas having one of the highest rates of teen moms, seemingly, to show that sex-ed should be universal in public schools. My first thought was that Texas is culturally very pro-life and generally marry and start families earlier. The amount of teens who literally don't know what causes pregnancy or what condoms are has got to be MINIMAL.

[@jcnwillemsen]

Great video on explaining a difficult subject in layman terms. Gr JCNW MD PhD

[@fabaldoni]

In the example around minute 4, you say that sunny skies and snow are negatively correlated, but there is no causation. Doesn't something cause something mean that if the antecedent happens the consequent must follow? In that case, is this a valid example. Here is the reasoning. If it is snowing it must be cloudy, because clouds produce the snow. If it is cloudy it can't be sunny to some degree because the clouds block the sun. Therefore the absence of sunniness is indeed caused by the falling of snow. Is there a flaw in this reasoning?

[@williamwimbourne856]

Hey, great video and explanation overview in 7mins. Thank you.

[@bradpetehoops]

Thank you.

[@hkishawi]

Great video! c vs c perfectly explained :D

[@daisymaeolide7822]

great explanation! i actually understand this now.

[@WirelessPhilosophy]

Glad it helped!

[@darkmysterytemple]

Andy thinking that he will do better on his test will improve his test can also be causation. There can be multiple causation.

[@liyexiang666]

wheres part 2?

[@violetzhang1907]

Great video! Thank you for help!!

[@mashadarii]

Sun example isn't so good. Don't forget that the inverse of this argument holds true too: just because it looks like mere coincidence or correlation doesn't mean it doesn't cause it. All this means is we don't know for sure. For the sun argument it could be related to how he feels in the sun. Improved mood causes improved performance.

[@kurthao3011]

I have learned this just lastnight. that's why i'm here. 😘

[@1111thalamus]

Awesome, if only someone can get this through the head of Scott Pruitt.

[@humanseeksjustice8830]

Two mutually exclusive events occurring at the same time.

[@madisenrodriguez3929]

i need examples of the argument elements : analogies, hypo reasoning, counter assert/argument etc

[@DanBrown202]

Good video. Thank you.

[@CDeruiter5963]

Great Video! Glad that you're back from your break. So does this area of philosophy correspond with Boolean Logic?

[@RFtelevision]

Very informative, thank you :)

[@tamlabadweh]

Thanks very much.

[@mariussucan8851]

Why are six videos hidden in the «Critical Thinking: Fundamentals» playlist ?

[@heidiskolnik1329]

The example at the beginning of the video is not so great; if it's always sunny (i.e., sunshine does not vary) it would be impossible to find a correlation between level of sunshine and doing well on an exam. This is the 'restricted range' problem in correlation.

[@aartie1999]

I think the majority of people defaults in thinking correlation equals causation and that's the biggest source of misunderstanding.

[@conorbrendandunne160]

Could someone answer the following question for me? When speaking of correlation and causation, is indirect causation still to be counted as causation? For example: 'The winter makes me gain weight'. Causal chain: 'During winter it is cold. Because it is cold, I do less exercise and eat more substantial meals. Because I do less exercise and eat more substantial meals, I gain weight'. Obviously, this one seems rather easy to answer. But what if this example were to span a causal chain composed of one hundred causes and effects?

[@Ikaros23]

In your case there is a « one cause fallacy». That is there is often multiple reasons/causes why a person gains weight. That is the whinter is just one of many causes for the weight gain. So there is no « indirect causation».

[@thevegangoomba4777]

Now think about this andy may do better when sun is shining because it makes him happy

[@litcrit1624]

I think you're going down the wrong path when you imply that causation indicates two things must "always" occur together ("it can't be causation because doing XXX doesn't ALWAYS "cause" someone to do YYY" or "There are times when XXX happens but YYY doesn't"). This simply isn't what most people mean when they think and worry about causation.

[@desrl3434]

The example with the nuts; isn’t eating more nuts related to lowering bad cholesterol (triglycerides) thus a positive correlation? The example in the video says it’s a bad correlation, which doesn’t make sense?

[@landreeculbreath6904]

Thank u my son get it now

[@mattjohnson2585]

What happened to the hidden videos???? They are unavailable.

[@Christopher_Gibbons]

While you cannot say their is causation. You also cannot say their is not. In order to accept or reject the idea you must examine the test results from days when it is not sunny. Invalidating an argument is not the same thing as disproving the initial statement.

[@themissile3120]

Claiming lack of causation is not rejecting an idea. It's just saying you haven't proven it yet. That doesn't make correlation useless. Just unreliable. It *does* disprove the initial statement if the initial statement claimed as fact that the correlation *is* the causation without any proof, ie superstition. That, however, doesn't mean that the observed correlation isn't actually causation. It could be, but unless you can prove the causation, it's only correlation. Basically, unreliable until proven, but still worth something on its own. This gets more complicated when you consider placebo/nocebo, a "lucky charm" effect where *belief* in a correlation being a causation *makes* it a causation because the observance of the correlation affects the outcome and the belief itself is the causation. Perception is wild.

[@soulreaperichig0]

Was part 2 ever made?

[@jocelynjose5270]

Hi, can you pls tell me how do you make these videos? which software do you use?

[@esmolol4091]

Why is it a negative correlation if its not sunny when it snows? Thats just natural if the cloads are too thick to let sunlight pass... Higher grades in College do not result in higher grades at high school. Correlarion is "lateral", by my definition, meaning, both objects are just objects and one does not require the other to exist. Causation is "vertical" meaning object a forces object b to become object b due to it's ability to actively change the property of object b. So object a is the foundation for object b. It goes even further and means, that object b, can NOT occur at all, if object a does not exist in the first place. I know, I know, it sounds weird. Because, what if one gets awesome marks at school, just by guessing every question correctly. It's not common, but absolutely possible. But even in that case, it means, that even through guessing, as long as all answers are guessed correctly, the mark must be an A. IF one gets bad marks, although all answer are correct, we have a real problem, that has to searched somewhere else, than by just looking at the test answers and the mark. It's extremely important to understand this principle, especially in relations. People don't love each other, just because the other person exists, no, but because we objectify the other persons trait as "lovable". So, WE create a causation artificially, so we can make sense of our behaviour and thosd of others, although we will never know the "real" reason...

[@arickmcniel6310]

What type of program does one use to make an instructional video like this? Is it part of the adobe suite?

[@PKandME]

Whic software do you use for your videos?

[@Korajiyo]

Wouldn't it be worth mentioning that his fallacious logic, in a way, might be correct because he's mistaken about it? If it was rainy one day, he might perform worse because he has a lower expectation. Although in this case it'd probably be more along the lines of performing better on sunny days, due to his belief that he always gets A's on sunny days. Andy believes that today being rainy means he'll perform worse on the test, thus he lowers his expectation, and finally performs worse on his test. These is a sentence that contain nine words.

[@cobolio]

Where is the second video?

[@IbraheemQaisi]

Can someone explain the Vit C example please?

[@ElfPrincessHarley]

imho: the difference is just separation of degrees-of-freedom up the spaciotemporal geneology-tree, no...?

[@videogamermusic31]

when its sunny and foggy mind blown

[@gaiusjuliuscaesar3204]

Hello! I love this theme but I always thought about in videos and short conversations. Can you recommend me any books or authors that were influential on this theme?

[@MusicLove1117]

Awesome video!! :D

[@malteeaser101]

Seems to be two different definitions of 'correlation' going on. One just means a connection between two things, such as events occurring together. The other is how variables, which are quantities, vary with one another, usually in a linear relationship, as one increases the other increases, for example, in an analogue fashion. 'Fido Barking' and 'Fido wagging' don't seem like variable quantities. Maybe they can be true or false, or 1 and 0, but I don't see how they can be 20, 50 or 56 and gradually increase with eachother through a large series of numbers. What does Fido barking = 50 mean? The frequency of Fido barking happening, or the frequency of Fido wagging happening. Now that seems to make more sense to say that they correlate under the statistical definition, and I can see how that would lead you to see a connection between the two types of events. If they happen to together often then there may be a connection between the two, which would be a a slightly different usage of 'correlation'. There does seem to be this switch, though, between the two definitions, even in the same problem. The Sun being in the sky correlates with ice cream sales. You can quantify ice cream sales, but what about the Sun being in the sky? And how would that quantity of the Sun being in the sky, whatever that means, gradually increase with the sales? Surely, it is the temperature from the sun, or how high the Sun is in the sky, which are more variable quantities? The Sun is either in the sky, or it is not. It is 1 or 0, at best, but where is the variable quantity that gradually rises through a large number of continuous values, alongside the number of ice cream sales? Maybe someone can clear this up for me.

[@robo-optics]

Well, there are different types of problems. Correlation can be used to relate any number of things. From computing to math. For example, in coding there are special commands that explain the program what to do based on another event. Like you mentioned earlier, 1 and 0's. There are commands saying turn on switch 5 if button 9 is pressed. They do not contain increasing values. The code functions just based on condition 1. Not in all circumstances there are increasing value for both the x and y like in graphs and sequences of data. It may appear to come in mathematics frequently but there are other applications of correlations, therefore it isn't mandatory.

[@brandontea3815]

Is there a specific branch of philosophy study this? Is it the study of logic?

[@DNorbs7]

Critical thinking and formal logic, I'd say.

[@flowersmakemehappy834]

There's correlations that have the same cause and then there's correlations that are even just coincidences

[@bhartiyadav1703]

good 😊

[@noncanadian]

Vitamin c is not the cause of recovering from colds? Sure it may be a small contribution or the process might not be as simple as the two step process of ingest vitamin c then recover from cold but vitamin c on some level does cause you to recover from colds

[@akemin8449]

Part2??

[@ashtreylil1]

im going to be the jerk

[@hello-sz7hp]

20th booster

[@ArthurAnderson-rg8zd]

What if Andy only shows up to the tests when it's sunny?

[@thedoorwall]

I fail to see the usefulness of calling taking medicine correlation with getting better because it does actually help you to get better isn't it affects the causing so how is it a useful language to call the correlation - I feel like as far as communication goes that doesn't do anything

[@winstonchang777]

Because it's sunny, Andy feels better and studies better, so it is NOT IMPOSSIBLE that one partly caused Andy to ACE his test when he "feels better" when it's sunny. And , after many times over, Andy feels more "confidant" when it's sunny. I agree that there is no "physical" causation, but we humans are not "simple " billiard balls, so, correlation becomes something has "some causation" in humans. Sometimes, I "feel" lucky ....at something.....Well, punk, do you feel lucky.... That said, it is almost impossible to feel lucky if you didn't study at all.....

[@misterbiscuit2538]

You didn't define the terms Causation or Correlation. The examples were good, but actual definitions wouldve helped

[@gustafa2170]

Brain activity and conciousness.

[@nicholasruff8354]

The first example of the false cause fallacy is flawed. If Andy's brain has correlated the sun with acing his test, then although the sun is not the direct cause of is acing the test, the placebo effect might make him more confident when taking the test, thus giving him a slight psychological edge and increasing his chances of performing better on the test. Ergo, the sun improves his test score by proxy.

[@svetievboris]

What'sit Tooyah However if Andy doesn't study for the test, no amount of sunshine is gonna make him pass it.

[@nicholasruff8354]

True, but the fact that the sun has some sort of influence at all makes the example faulty. A better example would be, "I danced outside, then it started to rain, ergo my dancing caused it to rain."

[@themissile3120]

I wouldn't call it flawed, just that there's a "lucky charm" paradox involved in observing correlation. The observation itself of correlation causes a reaction in any system. Sometimes that reaction directly affects the outcome, making it at least part of the causation. I do agree that he could have used a cleaner example and maybe should have used that one to explain this paradox.

[@KalishKovacs]

What you're doing here is bringing nuance into the issue, and simple problem can be increased in complexity with nuance. The sun/test example was a simplification for the point of illuminating the concept.

[@nicholasruff8354]

I understand the fallacy and I understand how examples are used to illustrate basic concepts. After all, I'm a teacher myself. I'm just pointing to the fact that it was unnecessary to use an example which lent itself to such nuance when a simpler one would do. I didn't "bring" any nuance to the example, the nuance was inherent to the example itself. Some examples are better than others, so this wasn't a great one, as it left the door open to contradiction as well as confusion on the part of the learner.

[@latelydawnIII]

this video guide me how to understand trump's tweet.

[@williamwimbourne856]

Which one of Trumps tweets?

[@cerenyasar6995]

Turkçe alt yazi eklermisin pleaseee

[@emiraslan2015]

Kırmızı Asa' dan geldik

[@jestekine5892]

B

[@rafamerchan]

Crossfit brought me here. A causation?

[@tonytaioftimestreamer2616]

Consider this : a young woman,beautiful by her society's standards, walks home alone after work.She is strangled to death by a serial killer who targets young beautiful women.He has a history of rejection from women and peers.Had this woman been with friends,she would be alive.Where she not conventionally beautiful,she would be alive.Had she taken the metro,she would be alive.Had the killer had a different past,she would be alive.Were society different and mental health issues were caught early,she would be alive. A conservative muslim would say the cause of her death was herself,as she shouldn t have been out alone without a man. A feminist would say the cause of her death are the patriarchal societal norms that make men feel entitled to womens bodies. A psychologist would say the cause was the personal history of the perpetrator,a sociologist that the norms surrounding gendered relations and mental health are to blame,a devout christian that it was gods plan,someone random that the cause was the split second decision the woman made to walk home instead of taking the metro etc.A mortician would say strangulation was the cause of the womans death. What was the cause of the womans death?

[@bradypochon5503]

Lack of oxygen to her brain and therefore cessation of the autonomic nervous system.

[@BabjiEManohar]

where the fuck is your nexxt video?

[@phlipclip5097]

idk, the Sun did help create life on Earth. Takeway Sol and Andy dies.

[@pashute12]

Horrible examples. It would help if you gave better examples that don't leave people pondering about whether the examples you gave may be incorrect. Wait! The high school high marks DID have a part in causing academic success, particularly if the highschool high marks indicate the student has acquired good learning skills and has studied much of the background needed for success at university. No? Wait what are they saying now. I missed the whole section.

[@paulk314]

4:09 "of course this person may just be a jerk" Hahaha that seems like a strange thing to say. how does saying that make that person a jerk? "Interesting point, but I believe you have committed a logical falla--" "SHUT UP, JERK!"

[@vman049]

It’s videos like these that make me wish the dislike count was still visible. Wasted 7 min. of my life.

[@sports4160]

andy is so superstitious

[@raadbekatyzakov2029]

Duh

[@Fanrose2475]

Mariah just a hater 💯💯💯😈

[@ABID7730]

Ridiculous

[@BleachedAnubis]

LOL philosophy graduate... good luck getting a job