War over Taiwan in 2027?

[@taylorcasale680]

I keep on saying this is going to happen and people give me funny looks at cocktail parties.

[@danielbenner7583]

Always stoked to see an interview with Bonny Glaser, keep up the good work!

[@007kingifrit]

boy you really like to glaze her, get it? get it? i......nah you get it.

[@eegxixwi-gvikoi]

I disagree with Bonney here and there but overall great stuff. Tbf I'm nowhere as well read nor near the credentials that Bonney has, but it seems like China is willing to go for Taiwan sooner than you'd think, and that the risk scaling has more dimensions than the proposed calculus.

[@phantomX-9]

Sources ?

[@Unknown-r2p2o]

Like when Germany in ww2 had peace ful military build up and China definitely wants to try get Taiwan using military weapons is likely

[@Unknown-r2p2o]

What happens when gray zone operations don’t work? They gonna go to war which gray zone is war and attack by force

[@0bkryptokazz]

@@phantomX-9 it's nonsense there's no reason Beijing has any interest in military interventions in Taipei especially with the majority of citizens wanting to remain neutral. The US and DPP are a loud minority that push this idea which simply isn't true. If you follow a realist line of thinking regarding IR theory then you know that none of this fear mongering makes sense.

[@eegxixwi-gvikoi]

@@phantomX-9 Sources for my opinion? Lmao. Love the bots

[@pendulmonium]

While America plays chess, China is playing 围棋. 😂

[@jeffreyespinassiao1398]

Watching from Philippines, Leyte Province 😢

[@shmeckle666]

Tacloban?

[@jarrettbobbett5230]

Are you okay? Are things that bad in the Philippines?

[@flaviofuentes7476]

I agree 2027 or 2030

[@shannonm.townsend1232]

More like 'The Devils Chessboard' (American Exception Podcast).

[@shmeckle666]

Is the 2027 time line from the PLA/CPC or from the DoD/US?

[@lagrangewei]

DOD, because that when US loses the bulk of it fleet from aging.

[@josephbacon7493]

I thought it was based on PLA modernisation programmes and their demographic crisis which kicks in from the 2030s with millions of retirees.

[@sakcee]

From XI

[@sakcee]

@@lagrangewei shut up CCP bot

[@shmeckle666]

Fascinating, I’ve gotten two different answers. Who would’ve thought?

[@Nordy941]

I’m not sure if someone’s who experience with China began in 1979 is going to be the most forward thinking innovative mind on China in 2025+.

[@adamf.9835]

Great episode.👏

[@Unknown-r2p2o]

This lady making excuses for pi and China

[@taylorcasale680]

This is my ‘on the way to school’ podcast

[@robertprawendowski2850]

⭐️

[@acomputer121]

The United States didn't send troops to defend Ukraine, so is it so strange that the people of Taiwan might not have faith that the United States would come and fight for them?

[@007kingifrit]

it sent enough. plus ukraine isn't as important as taiwan

[@acomputer121]

@007kingifrit the hosts were expressing their confusion as to why the people of Taiwan might be concerned by the risk of the US not coming to their aid, and specifically they said only ~30% of those surveyed believed the United States would send troops to defend them, and then they pointed to Ukraine as a case where the US defended a country it didn't have a formal alliance with, but that doesn't mean much to the people in Taiwan who doubt that the US would want to directly fight China as the United States has not sent troops to defend Ukraine. I have little doubt the US would send weapons, but it seems quite understandable that the people of Taiwan might doubt America's willingness to send troops.

[@doujinflip]

@@007kingifritOn the contrary, Taiwan is the lynchpin of the First Island Chain which prevents China’s nuclear-tipped boomer subs from reaching the open sea undetected, and the PRC has been seriously plussing up its nuclear arsenal lately too.

[@007kingifrit]

@ that agrees with me even more.....ukraine is less important than taiwan.

[@007kingifrit]

@ and as i said, taiwan is far more important to america than ukraine. besides the weak democrats aren't in power now.

[@Erik-rp1hi]

What's more important to Xi, the land or the people and their industry?

[@SolOInvictus]

Neither. It's not even about security. The entire issue is about political legitimacy. If you don't believe me, then think back to any time the CCP expressed anger about something to do with Taiwan.

[@WyomingRancher1776]

@@SolOInvictusYou are spot on 100%.

[@stopdacap2991]

I'd say the industry, specifically. It's no secret that Taiwan is the world's top producer of semiconductor chips. This is definitely something that Xi wants to get a hold of to ensure and better secure the future of the China's economic and military growth.

[@tainechen1634]

都不是，中国打败企图分裂中国的帝国主义阴谋的象征意义是最重大的。

[@DEFENDERNZ]

Imho, the island itself, first and foremost, though the fact Taiwanese live in a bustling free and open democracy is definitely a close second. See what Xi has done to his man made islands in the Sth China sea? He'd make Taiwan into a bigger version given the chance. He's frustrated as hell at the moment as his hopes and desires are slipping away, one fragment at a time. He's probably starting to feel like his status as someone who gets what he demands is diminishing.

[@AgainstElephantPoaching]

check various international seaport leases from all parties

[@QuizmasterLaw]

lol no.

[@michaelreed4744]

Have faith in God, Taiwan.

[@punkrachmaninoff]

Bonnie 'Bootlicker' Glaser Someone set her up with John Mearsheimer...

[@deanzaZZR]

Fully aligned with neocon USA's goals and not surprisingly funded by German Marshall Fund of the United States funded directly by the United States (obviously).

[@Unknown-r2p2o]

People where naive to think China would be true friend. To think it open up was stupid . They where headed in this direction naive to think China won’t try something with Taiwan

[@tainechen1634]

People are naive to think a country can be a true friend, I thought US already teach everyone everyone on the planet by its conducts.

[@0bkryptokazz]

It's important to note that the support for the DPP has been in decline it's clear today that Taipei does not see Beijing as their adversary it's very unlikely that this will change making war unlikely. With Trump winning election the situation is mostly to be an economic war rather then direct intervention. This is a good video to get a US perspective but I think my major critique is that they are not communicating directly with Beijing.

[@lagrangewei]

the flaw argument for US believe that 2027 will be a turn point with China because the idea that China will peak in 2027 is flawed. given the rate of Chinese military development, the gap is not going to narrow after 2027, it is going to widen. 2027 is just 2 year, it take a decade to build up shipbuilding, missile and aircraft manufacturing requires very large production complex, that US is not going to magically have in 2 years. in Asia we call such talk "the words of a dreamer", because it is clearly something that cannot be realised. furthermore, political there is no reason for China to even feel threaten by Taiwan independence because the pro China camp already control the parliment, and without changing the constitution, Taiwan cannot declare independent. and the trend is the seperatist will only lose more vote as the presidency they led become increasing ineffective at resolving domestic problem, including standing up to US trade war, which Trump will most likely apply even more pressure. Trump presidency therefore does not favor the domestic politic of Taiwan due to his "America first" policies. add that to the fact that PRC is likely to also apply economic pressure, Lai administration who did not win a majority for the presidential election, will be under alot of stress. so really PRC only need to wait for the next election for people to vote for a candidate "for change". they can win politically, there is no need for war.

[@mikhailfranco]

Planetary alignment 8 September 2040. Expect the Mandate of Heaven to change... ... fall of the CCP.

[@kowaihana]

i can't wait to get enlisted and get deployed in taiwan as a filipino 😂😂

[@accountantthe3394]

@@kowaihana rip 😂

[@DPtdryste]

Otherwise pretty informative view on how US sees China. I like hearing what the neolibs and neocons are into because it shows direction. I don’t think China facing any economic issue worse than the US though, other than the massive scale issue that their effective governance has to address since country is so big and many Chinese do not live in big modern Chinese cities but yet seem to have to survive off of them still a bit. I hope in future US and Chinese just travel back and forth, do business and learn Chinese and English. The governments and militaries should stay out of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Xinjiang, etc… just let regular humans build organic ties and stop fomenting Chinese on Chinese violence. As for the US getting better… we should all learn Spanish and start re-industrializing and manufacturing all through the Americas sans all the violence, coercion and (post)colonial behavior.

[@JeffreyDSachsForPresident]

smart and rational people like you (and me :) ) are far and few... China is rapidly advancing into 6G and a whole new "low altitude economy" featuring air-taxis and drone delivery robots. They're moving into the Jetsons space age while America is rapidly sinking into the dark ages because it is led by a bunch of crooks and warmongers.

[@TheMightyAbs]

Are you kidding me? You want US allies and the US itself to encourage and influence Taiwan's leader to express more independence related thoughts? Do you want to start a war and leave Taiwan a smoking hole in the ground? Insanity.

[@MeteornKnight]

Trump is being pretty good servile with them so you dont have to worry. To get puiten he is willing to join up with them l

[@netizencapet]

PRC should become the protector of all its neighbors' sea rights, including at its own expense, while still retaining the bases on its artificial islands.10 yrs of that would drive those nations closer to Beijing. Instead, Xi's aggressive stance has forced former buddies to hedge their bets & get into security partnerships w/ US.

[@MeteornKnight]

They are already in security partnership from start so whats "qin" even going to do ? Even if you dont do anything or do anything the partnerships will happen

[@netizencapet]

@MeteornKnight Vietnam signed a security partnership with US just in 2024. Philippines renewed a closed US Base & Australia, Philippines and India all joined the Quad just in the Biden admin after years (apart from Australia) of peddling a wary stance towards Washington. Esp. in the case of Vietnam & Philippines, they were very close to China & made many active efforts to court Beijing graces, from the policing initiative program to crazy trade integration. Xi Jinping went to every length to exacerbate the @#$+ out of these nations' S. China Sea fishing & shipping rights when he could easily have gained allies. Now they're frenemies at best.

[@rodgerhempfing2921]

There needs to be a peace treaty

[@dss2mtm]

Taiwan isn't Texas (ironically annexed by the US through an expanionist war) so unless it's the typical walk-over war the US is used to, the US wont sacrifice itself for an island most Americans couldn't find on a map.

[@zdj-h9m]

That has been true of the US until today. Tomorrow, the US is going to different. Just wait and see.

[@davidphillips8674]

I think the invasion of Taiwan(90 miles away) is almost an impossible task. The US and UK needed 130,000 troops to seize a small beachhead across the English Channel in an age before satellite surveillance and autonomous weapons with ranges of hundreds or thousands of miles. China will lose hundreds of thousands of troops, hundreds of ships, and suffer massive economic consequences that will collapse the Chinese economy.

[@lagrangewei]

the difference is Taiwan is 97% Chinese who has no interest to resist despite their government's grandstanding. this can be seen by the fact that the ROCA has only 70% of it manpower filled, no one want to serve. while almost everyone in south korea is conscripted for 2 years. Taiwan no longer has 2 years conscription because their people don't want to fight and so no party dare to make law to force them to fight. in short Taiwanese expect American to come and fight and die in their stead, if they don't, they will just surrender like Crimea. afterall many of them already have PRC passport just like Crimea before 2014.

[@SergeantPee]

The Germans in 1944 were experienced, well armed and motivated. None of those is true for Taiwan.

[@wtx619]

PLA probably has a pretty good satellite mapping of all Taiwan’s coastal defenses (armories, missile launchers, bunkers, etc). In the first wave of attack PLA will use swarms of missiles and drones to level these costal defenses. After that, PLA does not necessarily have to land on Taiwan, it can also conduct an embargo by cutting off all connection to Taiwan, just like what they have done in previous military exercises, and wait for Taiwan to surrender

[@jukebox_heroperson3994]

If China uses the element of surprise well, and acts within their area of naval "influence", they absolutely could. Then it turns into the fight for the island.

[@netizencapet]

@@davidphillips8674 You're correct. PRC would win the war but at *enormous* cost. Right now, Xi still has big hopes for Chinese greatness which means he's not going to invade. Ironically, US by viciously & w/o empirical justification trying to shut down China economically right when they're in a tough spot, only drives up the risk of war by risking that Xi loses faith in economic greatness & opts to cut his losses by invading.

[@m_c_8656]

yo, that's cray-cray

[@davidhuangsr]

It’s a frozen civil war between the mainland and the island. That’s all that is. The only way towards a peaceful reunification is absolute, asymmetric economic and military powers, not across the Taiwan strait, but across the Pacific. Like it or not, once the US is pushed out of the second island chain, reunification is inevitable. The earlier Taiwan starts unification negotiation with the mainland the better terms they will get. If the talks starts today, Taiwan probably will be able to keep everything except military and diplomatic rights.

[@007kingifrit]

but china isn't going to push america out, and a strong alliance against china has formed. china will go no farther.

[@wma2140]

Beijing talking points. Wishful thinking.

[@davidhuangsr]

@@007kingifrit so you think

[@davidhuangsr]

@@wma2140 yes, at least Beijing has been consistent on its policies. Is that what you call transparency?

[@michaelcollett7214]

If Communist victory was so inevitable they wouldn't hire so many shills to repeat their idiot talking points. Also, everyone saw what happened to Hong Kong. The communist talking point that it won't be so bad after invasion defies the reality in HK.

[@julioduan7130]

Bonnie may only listen to perspectives from DPP, which is quite one side biased opinion about Taiwan.

[@eegxixwi-gvikoi]

She may only listen to the DPP? What an insult to Bonnie. Go elsewhere bot.

[@Unknown-r2p2o]

@@eegxixwi-gvikoiBonnie sounds like China apologist because of travels in China the dictator of China wants Taiwan and is willing to go to war we shouldn’t prepare end of story

[@netizencapet]

Xi JinPing never gave any 2027 deadline so people really should cut the crap w/ repeating that meme. That said, the 22 M on Taiwan could raise a 2 M top notch army if they'd just pay to do so.

[@Nordy941]

20% of the total population? 40% of the males. Yeah you think so. Germany and Japan never got close to that in WW2.

[@netizencapet]

@@Nordy941 It would mostly be a reserve army, bro. Changed the # to 2M. But they need to get serious about it.

[@FilipeBrasAlmeida]

Trump just announced tariffs on Taiwan. What an odious blithering numbskull.

[@emmeadowmitbbs3537]

I really don't understand why the cost of taking Taiwan will be high. Illusion?

[@marshallb5210]

is the high cost imposed on russia an illusion?

[@eegxixwi-gvikoi]

If you don't understand something then it's an illusion?

[@007kingifrit]

nice broken english, you know xi looks like winnie the pooh right?

[@emmeadowmitbbs3537]

@ I do not care. I am not trying to win a propaganda fight. But I thought this was the opinion from a think tank expert, not from a politician. Well, whatever, why should I care in the first place. 🤣

[@007kingifrit]

@ do you really need us to explain to you why taking an ISLAND would be difficult?

[@CCGNZ65]

We need to negotiate a resolution to make Taiwan the "One China" we basically agreed to,Taiwan is not ALL pro-independence,if it were maybe it's different even though any confrontation so close to China would cost the US dearly. I'm as a US citizen not prepared to send our brave service people to die over this. Negotiate a good deal anti-PRC Taiwanese can leave for US citizenship. Maybe the PLA is uninspiring to Mr. Xi but the PLAN's advancement in modern impressive warships armed w/really impressive/dangerous anti-ship missiles not to mention the land based threat to our navy is not an area to do battle in. We can change the seemingly ever-present narrative as a aggressive warmongering nation,change Mr. Xi's view of US/China relations and reset our Pacific strategy and gain time to get new ships(our navy has atrophied w/old warships) and systems online. Maybe it resets relations given that Xi would benefit and attain the legacy that he covets and the US would benefit by receiving economic co-operation at new levels. Either way China/XI would be less belligerent toward the West and if Xi gets aggressive in the future the tyranny of distance won't be as much a factor in a future conflict,not to mention the new high ground in the US favor after a peaceful Taiwan resolution.

[@waynegore5291]

Where did the majority people come from before the dutch came to taiwan 400 years ago? MAINLAND, CHINA.

[@eegxixwi-gvikoi]

What does this matter? Taiwan isn't Chinese according to the Taiwanese people. Live with it.

[@mingkao1]

400 years ago, very few Han people lived in Taiwan, the great majority were native Taiwanese, a different race from Han people.

[@martavdz4972]

By that logic, the US in the 19th century should have been part of Great Britain.

[@waynegore5291]

@martavdz4972 Does the current US constitution say that US is part of Britain? BTW, war solve the issue between britain & US.

[@accountantthe3394]

​@@martavdz4972Umm yes? And they fought a "war of independence" over it? Good luck thinking taiwan can win that one lol