Cyclical Seesaw & Teslanomics | ITK with Cathie Wood

On episode LIV of "In the Know," (April 5, 2024) ARK CEO/CIO, Cathie Wood, alongside ARK Director of Investment Analysis & Institutional Strategies, Tasha Keeney, and ARK Director of Research, Autonomous Tech & Robotics, Sam Korus, discuss recent Tesla economic developments as well as weigh in on the federal budget deficit, M2 money supply, employment growth, and more.
This month we’re again responding to a few requests by supplementing this episode with charts and data to help illustrate ARK’s perspective on and outlook for the global economy.
As always, Cathie discusses fiscal policy, monetary policy, market signals, economic indicators, and innovation. We hope you find this monthly series useful, especially during periods of heightened volatility. Stay Healthy. Stay Innovative.
0:00:00 Intro
0:01:25 Teslanomics
0:23:46 Fiscal Policy
0:23:49 Federal Budget Deficit Or Surplus Percent Of Nominal GDP
0:29:11 Net Interest Spend - Percent Of GDP (CBO Forecast)
0:31:02 Monetary Policy
0:31:10 M2 Money Supply vs. Inflation
0:36:25 1-Year Ahead Inflation Expectations University Of Michigan vs. NY Fed
0:38:33 Yield Curve 10 Year Treasury Yield Minus 2 Year
0:42:35 Real Federal Funds Target Rate
0:43:38 Global Policy Rates Are Declining
0:46:56 Economic Indicators
0:47:01 Real GDP vs. Real GDI
0:48:31 Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing and Services Activity
0:49:39 Nonfarm vs. Household Employment Growth
0:51:49 Temporary Help Employment vs. Total Employment
0:52:13 US Consumer Sentiment By Household Income
0:53:13 US Small Business Optimism Index
0:54:15 US Existing Home Sales (SAAR)
0:56:07 US New One Family Houses Sold (SAAR)
0:57:01 New Homes Sold Median Sales Price
0:57:57 Existing Home Prices Median Price, Year-Over-Year Percent Change
0:58:02 US Auto Sales (SAAR)
0:59:45 Computer and Technology Production
1:03:36 S&P 500 Index
1:04:13 Market Signals
1:04:22 USD Index
1:05:04 Egyptian Pound And Nigerian Naira Spot Rates To USD
1:06:58 China Renminbi Per USD
1:09:23 Bloomberg Commodity Index
1:10:31 Metals/Gold Ratio vs. US 10 Year Treasury
1:12:41 Investment Grade And High Yield Index Credit Default Swaps
1:14:55 Outro
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Disclosure: arkinv.st/39rzF94

[@ramanmittal6360]

Dear Cathy knowledge is no use to investors unless you can produce results. ARKK is back to levels it was 7 years ago. We are here to learn of course but more importantly to have decent returns on our investment. Just knowledge does not pay the bills

[@userwink]

Knowledge is the key to good investing. Thank you everyone at Ark.

[@pawelkorbel9443]

Great program. Thanks Cathie. :)

[@surfingindo]

Breath of fresh air. Positive.

[@HRIapstrategy]

Thank you for being such a great educational resource Ark team. ❤ your teams intelligence & dissemination of expertise

[@AirPandaVinsanity]

greatly appreciate sharing the research. have never been more excited for the future of TSLA

[@georgebrandt9039]

Watched to the end, thank you for sharing your experience and perspective.

[@buildyourownbackyard6217]

Not a huge ARK fan, but as a layperson thinking about Tesla's safety... Every Tesla FSD accident is reported nationally. Each of them. Imagine what the news would look like if every Tahoe or Expedition (or whatever) accident was reported nationally. There are probably 2 Camry's totaled out in Dallas every day.

[@anthonyballog8026]

Was in Tesla for the battery but when I seen v12... Thank you Cathie for all you do.

[@ranli9607]

Thanks, always watched the whole video, great work ❤

[@mamacryptO4686]

😊 I enjoyed that. Thank you, Kathy!

[@oferfriedman5821]

Thanks you for the axplantion 🎉

[@markviglione8804]

very informative. thank you.

[@88doonyboy88]

Thank you Cathie!!!

[@SwiftlyJack]

Thanks for sharing all that knowledge and insights!

[@noobmaster5434]

Thanks so much. The content is amazing.

[@kevinyang4929]

Very useful and detail informations. Thanks for ur help and I have more confidence for Tesla

[@NSG1323]

Yall do good work‼️💯

[@NSG1323]

Where can we find the slide deck?

[@joevelasquez2757]

Thank you

[@LucyDarlington]

Amazing intel, as usual! Thank you Cathie Wood!

[@moneythugg4291]

Thanks you and your great team for great guidance ❤

[@Iccdoc]

Perfect time to buy more shares.

[@pralden]

Really nice breakdown of the data and information that cuts through all the noise out there.

[@patrickliao8576]

As always, thank you!

[@joncorreia]

Thank you Cathie!

[@mohammadsajedi5019]

Thank you Cathie🌹

[@gunaysoni6792]

Loved This

[@user-tb1jy7rr9e]

Great content!

[@paulpaul7777]

Great insight Cathie and team ❤❤❤

[@stevedunne8520]

great content !!

[@zohnpoker7844]

Great video, TY!

[@misskat]

As far as safety for autonomous driving I think about $AUR Aurora Innovation. Auroras connection with Volvo and as you stated Volvos history for having the safest vehicles is interesting.

[@hedgefund2824]

Merci beaucoup Cathie. 😊 From France

[@RahRah-vu2mh]

I'm a marketing consultant and professor. Peter Drucker once taught us that Innovation + Marketing = Value, all the rest are costs. Watching this, it's clear on the marketing side of things that Tesla has swapped Innovation with Exponential innovation and in doing so has been and will continue to blow everyone else trapped by traditional methods out of the water.

[@Iccdoc]

You’re right on target with the autonomous driving.

[@Balilaci69]

Speaking about safety, we should not forget the rare occasions like the father drove off the cliff and after a huge fall the whole family survived without major injuries in a Tesla.

[@PatrickKukla]

Great job Kathy Wood!

[@Robyn-Hood]

Thanks 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@MrJumpsOnStage]

Ark invest doing great with these videos

[@MichelNilecam]

Thank you very much Mrs Wood !

[@silli01]

Cathy is the greatest female role model for me worldwide

[@weaverdreams]

Ty!

[@DrBussanich]

The 25k car likely is the same form factor as the robotaxi. 2 seater. The Reuters is probably confusing this. You can choose to own one and contribute it to the fleet of taxis or just ride share. Second version could be an adaptable 4 person, squeeze to 6 people with middle seats of a bench or something, no steering wheel, more like a minibus. Both share same battery frame, motors, etc. bus has no dash, steering wheel. Small car does. Maybe you as a customer can take control of the 2 seater, if you want.

[@charlesbannerman106]

No They are different products entirely. Also the robotaxi is vaporware fan fiction.

[@pedroramosvasquez1631]

Hi! Where can I find the research slides used in the video?

[@terimclennan388]

Thank you in depth and comprehensive!

[@douglasstewart2253]

THANK YOU for spending your time with us. Listening to your In The Know really does help put the pieces together.

[@eddiebrady6351]

Very enlightening! Thanks!

[@R.E.A.L.I.T.Y]

Invert the US Fed Budget Deficit graph (the result of decades of Corp Tax Cuts) & you get Stock Price charts. Increase Corp Taxes to FDR levels and US has a huge surplus to invest.

[@user-to2rf1rj5v]

Note that the V12 end to end NN stack is ONLY on city streets right now. The freeway stack is still the V11 stack.

[@starofchaos]

You mention battery costs going down and charging infrastructure being built rapidly, along with highlighting positive sales figures for Tesla Model Y, but don't mention any potential challenges related to those aspects. Wood referencing doubters in 2019 and Tesla overcoming them again suggests a focus on past success overcoming challenges, potentially downplaying current risks.

[@charlesbannerman106]

Sunk cost fallacy. Ark has bet the farm on Tesla so they will be selective in their visions. What she also left out was Tesla peaking in demand and lessening of margin due to price wars

[@billkahn8355]

Video includes the 3 best spokespersons at ARK.

[@josephinemurphy2502]

What about Brett?

[@johnmerlino7011]

HPC & AI has been around for 15 years. GenAI is exciting and will eventually have wide and deep impact on job roles in most industries BUT is all about "Data" not all technology. Data inputs, design, ownership of IP, Governance, accuracy, liability, for GenAI use cases and system design all have to be solidified and aligned to a strong monetization plan before scale. Garbage in, garbage out. The work begins.

[@brandon_youtube]

Insightful analysis. Tesla is a grinding stock to cover and invest in. Not for the faint hearted. I can imagine Tasha taking a break from it in 2024

[@buckyzona]

Can’t believe this is free

[@ianyates3471]

Dear Miss Wood, thank you for your presentation. I have a couple of questions: 1) your quote that Tesla has outsold Toyota in terms of total vehicle sales is incorrect. Correct in terms of total EV sales 2) C++ is a procedural language it is not an AI enabled language. Look at Python and Tensor Flow. 3) Tesla is facing increasing competition at both the top end I.e European brands and at the bottom end BYD, KIA, and Hyundai. Which means without scale Tesla is being squeezed 3) The AI boom for chip companies is limited to the saturation point for building AI infrastructure. This will happen over the course of the next year. 4) the real action I believe is with Quantum e.g D-Wave systems and the emerging companies that are in the early stages of employing Quantum to solve real world problems Just a thought

[@girowinters]

Definitely not being squeezed at the top. Definitely are at the bottom end. Those European marques are barely keeping up

[@johnbrowning937]

I believe they said Camry not total Toyota sales.

[@tomwalker3553]

A terrific presentation as usual. Thank you and your company for doing these.

[@thach0x0]

She is one of the most controversial figures in the industry .The vast majority of the investment committees do not approve her organisation in Europe . Quite contrary ,I have invested in her products since 2020. I trade funds . I have only had the most amazing experiences with her products !! I respect and appreciate Ark with their high integrity. I am also 5 year junior at USC ;-)

[@Lovingkindness.]

Really? 🤔 AARK is the same price it was 5 years ago. I sold it in 2021 before it crashed. Lucky me.

[@joec.5009]

sorry to hear that you didn't get to make much money. If you just bought META or NVDA instead of ARK funds, you would've 15-20Xed in that span.

[@charlesbannerman106]

Só You lost a lot of money . But thanks for paying the .75 fee lol

[@ramanmittal6783]

Great research and futuristic thinking but can we please have start and end date of 5 year time horizon

[@LordandGodofYouTube]

exactly, she never gives that date, if we go back 5 years from now it's going quite badly!

[@MartyFillingim]

I saw a video of an Uber driver who drove over 126k miles within two years (I think it was a Model X). He had to purchase a new battery for about $12,000. I have had my car for 13 years and have not spent $12K on maintenance over 13 years. After that video, I stopped thinking about purchasing a Tesla. Can you add some more color to this cost?

[@charlesbannerman106]

No they won't do that because they have way too much invested in the Tesla dream

[@hpartsch]

12k 😂...I'm fairly certain there are no new or refurbished batteries from Tesla for 12k. With tax and installation the invoices being posted are much higher.

[@zyvex128]

If you charge EV properly (keeping battery % between 20%-80% most of the time) you don’t need to purchase new battery with 126k mileage. Normal people won’t drive 100k miles in two years.

[@golferboggie]

It would be helpful if Ark could provide a summary of previous price predictions of $tsla vs actual 😂.

[@olgazhd8274]

Actually they did predict $4000 share price back in 2019 when a share was about $300. This is before the two splits. Adjusted for the 5 for 1 and 3 for 1 forward splits, this would be equal to predicting a share to go from $20 to $265. The shares have been trading between $115-$300 range after they hit all time highs of $400.

[@floriannagelschmitz5828]

Wondering why these aren’t made in podcast form? Would consume much more frequently if they were!

[@dankuo8561]

Gillette razor business model for Tesla FSD. You can buy a car for 20-25K and pay an annual $10-15K subscription for insurance, FSD, and charging.

[@nickjones4472]

Thanks Cathie lots of great info!

[@joaoteles7863]

Sam stated that the Model y price is 50k. Even with the state incentives? 🧐 Overall, great insights, tks!

[@FiDelZarlar]

Greetings from Belgium 🇧🇪

[@onecompass7290]

Thank you Ms. Wood! Always appreciated your wisdom

[@InfoSopher]

13:29 What's the law she's referring to?

[@user-rr9hx7fr3u]

agree with this perspective, but there's one question . If electric vehicle (EV) penetration reaches 30% in the United States, and the primary models available are the Model 3 and Model Y, won't everyone essentially have the same car? Why not offer a more diverse range of car designs for consumers to choose from? tesla

[@jamesfahy2935]

Thank you.

[@KCatuna]

Tasha, I told my mom about us ❤😉

[@johnbrowning937]

If you had to have supply issues that slowed production now would be the time to have it when demand softens anyway.

[@992GTS-DC]

There have been some incredible new EVs launched by the legacy manufacturers recently. The Porsche Macan EV is getting amazing reviews and is cheaper than Tesla’s ancient Model X. I cannot believe how old the Tesla car range is, that’s got to hurt sales moving forwards, especially if there is no new Model 2 coming out

[@steveb1370]

Can't wait for full FSD 👍👍

[@charlessaldanha3910]

That would be FFSD... 😅

[@Bearly_Blue]

Wasn't it coming in 2015?

[@newworld6474]

FSD cars and taxis - Congrats again Elon and TEAM ... this is great news for the elderly and folks like me who have Parkison's Disease etc ...

[@Bearly_Blue]

What FSD, they are at the same level of autonomous driving as GM, which is Level 2 (SAE scale on autonomous driving). Mercedes is level 3 and Volvo level 4. Tesla is far behind and Mask is talking about things they don't have and can't do.

[@newworld6474]

@@Bearly_Blue it is FSD SUPERVISED ... which is level 2 ... level 3-4 on the highway...?

[@BlackSwan-sq2iw]

I have been following Cathie since 7 or 8 years ago. Bought her funds. Her ideas didn’t pan out. Her forecasts are wrong.

[@yingkenney3507]

Can your funds find more stocks to rely on? Relying on solely in TSLA is not safe!

[@bsKennys]

Very thorough and informative, I am just wondering how come most of your ETF still performed so badly in past 3 years?

[@altargull]

"Nothing but nets" - Tasha

[@kichijitsu]

If all major car makers license FSD and all or almost all automobiles are FSD equipped (whether by choice or by law), there will be no more accidents on the road (each car will be able to communicate with all other cars and avoid accidents). (Insurance premiums on cars without FSD will probably force car users / operators to purchase FSD.

[@shoelessjoe428]

I'm surprised by Waymo's 'Miles Between Crashes' figures.

[@velayuthman]

Tesla stock swings too much to calmly accumulate and hold, After buying TSLA shares for just over 10 years, i'm struggling to make gains presently. How do i adjust or revamp my $2M portfolio? Should i consider some defensive investments?

[@TiagoRamosVideos]

🙏

[@grahambrown42]

They could not have known we were a few hours away from the 08/08 Robotaxi reveal X post from Elon Musk 😮

[@CyberTankMan]

❤

[@sebastianvarlamav2]

wouldn't the federal budget just increase with any large gdp gains?

[@JinNani224]

If the operating costs of an EV are lower than an ICE vehicle, why did Hertz cut ties with all Tesla cars?

[@MattSkibz]

Because boomers didn't know how to use them

[@charlesbannerman106]

Because they are theoretically lower according to Tesla but in the real world they are not. Ark reads Tesla literature as though it is gospel

[@charlesbannerman106]

@@MattSkibzi see you didn't read the hertz report. It was repair costs, lack of interest and poor customer feedback. Combined with rapidly decreasing value due to Elon lowering prices

[@rayr268]

@@charlesbannerman106which is actually why I own no ark

[@rizwancheck]

​@charlesbannerman106 Hi Thanks for that . Just for my curiosity, is this hertz report accessbilble for public?

[@frontierseeksvisioningod]

I still remember her zoom being disconnected while talking about zoom's future because she was not a paid subsceiber of zoom. I'm wondering what is her car. Is she driving tesla?? No credibility..

[@TeslaElonSpaceXFan]

😍

[@macharlem]

LOL that lead was crazy buried 🤔

[@bartbradshaw]

🤣

[@davidhiggins3012]

Still reeling from her NNDM pick a few years ago when I lost 400k.

[@jasonlaboy]

In the last year and a half since I bought my house it's up 28%, kinda insane to me, and I bought right before rates went up to 7%

[@twohornedpuppet85]

I'm only here for Tasha.

[@peterszabo6395]

I get so entutiastic at nov of 2020! I bought enything what i thought that will be the future! All my stock is gown 90-99% down. I wish i bought gold! But i said more people this time has to buy gold.

[@DoctorJack16]

As always. Thank you Cathie and your team for sharing this knowledge.

[@Bboy235]

What knowledge?

[@KamilMauel]

1.Bragging about deflation / monetary supply contraction / lagging rent prices for 3 years now as CPI has accumulated to +16% afterwards. Furthermore oil and EV demand went totally opposite to the predictions. 2. ARKK's performance reflects those miscalculations. No growth even with the dividend reinvestment for 5 years, 7 months and 5 days. 3. Spending during COVID lowered interest costs because rates were close to 0%. The chart shows that. What happened in the last 2 years corresponds to the spike. 4. Construction computers and electronics is up mostly thanks to the artificial governmental boost.

[@Bboy235]

She’s down in a bull market and been talking about deflation for 3 years worst investor

[@R.E.A.L.I.T.Y]

Thank you team for a comprehensive, thorough & generous exposé & analysis. ❤

[@cjwdcjwd6940]

please explain teledoc，nvta，sklz！

[@minibobjhu2523]

Yeah, Bring BYD to the States and give the hard-working class more affordable options!

[@KK-pm7ud]

They are spyware cars

[@zyvex128]

If BYD comes to US, the price will probably be similar to Tesla, if not higher, due to trade protection tax imposed by US gov.

[@notsure9982]

Hydrogen, not lithium, one of the dirtiest energy technologies around, not to mention it's not a readily available resource in the United States. Also keeping the government kill switch and hacking abilities out is a real issue. Other than that, I agree with your pitch on Tesla. We need to support Enon.

[@girowinters]

Was the Toyota Corolla